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Cold War 2.00.05/LW

The BBC alerted us to an optional issue, the article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn8vk4g42o) is a tap on the door. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the article. It alerts us and it tells us stuff, but there is an underlying setting. You see there is an absolute chance that Russia is active in Germany, but there are doubts within me. Russia has a lot more problems than many of us realise. And there we, optionally, now have a new player in the German field. The radical sited lone wolf getting their message from Tehran. I will come right out with ‘it is speculative’, it is my speculation. You see with “Holes mysteriously found cut in army base fences” we see part of the deception. If it was me, I would hide 2-3 drones, out of sight with a good view of several buildings, not flying in a landed state. Army camps have many roofs and not of them are watched all the time. And a landed drone leaves no signature. So there the culprit, optional plural have drilled a hole in a fence, nicely hidden, but not strong enough that it will avoid detection. So the guard patrols call it in and suddenly the base is rushing to the sensitive places and checking them out. And now with the drone cameras they will know WHERE to hit that place, optionally not hitting that place at all (that week). The army signature move is to check all the sensitive areas as well as the munition storage and armouries. Their alert giving the lone wolves where to come soon enough and that time there are no holes at entry. 

Not a case they expected, but this is not an intentional Cold War or Cold War 2.0, it is a Cold War 2/LW (Lone Wolf). A new setting and most standard procedures will not suffice, well they might but you are up against a different enemy, the Lone Wolf is desperate for success and more important, he/she will be more desperate for success, as such they will resort to killing a lot sooner, as such the plan changes somewhat. Whether they are out for secrets to dispense to a player like Iran (optionally one of their agents via Hamas, Hezbollah, or Houthi). I see this as a realistic setting. 

We cannot merely rely on:

  • An alleged plot to assassinate Germany’s top weapons manufacturer.
  • Phone taps on a high-level Luftwaffe call.

These are still settings that are happening and it is even possible that these are separate issues. In any espionage setting the Luftwaffe taps could most definitely be Russia as for the alleged assassination. It is anyones guess who it is and how real it is. The danger of an assassination cannot be ignored, but these people are aware of those dangers and the replacement is likely to be a lot more dangerous than the one they replaced. When the danger becomes realistic, the claws come out and they will suddenly be a lot more dangerous, as well as the BND (Bundesnachrichtendienst), they will at that point be out for blood, all of the blood they can lay their hands on. 

So am I right?
Not sure, but I just gave you a scenario that I came up with in 5 minutes. These Lone Wolves have been brooding over a plan for months. It is there that we see the folly that I saw in the case involving Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri in Canada. In 2021 we get from 60 minutes that Mohammed bin Salman wanted him dead. This might be true, but then we get in August 2020 that ‘Saudi hit squad was sent to Toronto to try to kill former intel official, lawsuit alleges’ (source: Toronto Star) with a 100 page lawsuit and in the end none of the allegations have been proven in court. What a jolly shit show. There was another article (I forgot where it was) stating that the Tiger Team of 30 man were employed. To give you a little rundown, after 42 years leaving the army (draft) I came up with a simple idea of using 3 teams of 2 man and at the end of that exercise that would have taken a mere 20 minutes with one team active for an additional 12 hours, there was no living Al Jabri, he would be as dead as the concrete building he was living in. OK, I do not know the setup of that building, but it would be a simple exercise for 3 teams of 2 (one team observing and directing. An optional use for the M202A1 66mm FLASH with adjusted missiles would be used (in a certain debilitating case) but that is merely on a ‘what if’ whim. The rest is a simple exercise using two boom boom items. Hard case, a mere exercise and I am certain that certain parties (who are in this field) could have thought of this long before I did. I have had my issues with the assumptions that Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri have tried to sway us with. The other fact was that the US, where a lot was set in their courts (even though he was in Canada) with all kinds of objections against the Saudi representative there. I had my doubts on a lot of it. This is a mere setting and this now goes back to Germany. Is there an optional Cold War brewing? That is very much possible, but in all this the Lone Wolf is optionally overlooked. So are these the actions of a Lone Wolf, or a Lone Woof. Anyone can make a hole in a fence, having the Army run around would be fun the the lone woof looking from a distance, it does not make for a base invasion. So at the near end of the article we get “Not all of these events can definitively be blamed on Moscow, but Germany is on heightened alert for possible acts of Russian sabotage, because of Berlin’s continued military support for Kyiv” this is a better be safe then sorry and I cannot disagree, but the media had a decent responsibility to state more than this and the mere ‘Not all of these events can definitively be blamed on Moscow’ was not enough. With Russian sympathisers all over Europe a lot more was required, because belief it or not Lone Wolves are a clear and present danger to many European nations. Troll farms are ‘their’ essential misinformation, but merely misinforming people and watch it unfold tends to be only entertaining in the first few hours. When we get to tipping scales, actions tend to be needed to make the scales tip over a lot more, but that is merely my point of view.

As “last month when CNN reported that US officials had told Berlin of an alleged Russian plot to kill the chief executive of Germany’s biggest arms company Rheinmetall” doubts come into play again. You see a player like Rheinmetall has procedures in place for this level of events, of that I have no doubt. So what is to be gained from a simple and single execution? Is it the target, or is it a ploy to keep the BND active in the wrong places? Lets not forget that Sun Tzu taught us that all war is based on deception. So how did CNN get the news? Any alleged plot (especially from Russia) would be based on the expertise by people like the GRU and they do not talk (if they do President Putin has a lot more problems that he realises). So how did CNN get it, what were the sources? As such I have to some degree my doubts on this.

Have a fun day and that red dot you see on your chest? It’s merely your imagination.

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Setting a Sunny Saturday

I was there, there was a yellow disc in the sky (aka the sun), I was sitting and merely contemplating stuff when I got hit with a video. 

It was 60 minute with something on underwater smuggling and how people were unprepared. It took me 15 seconds to set that premise to solved. OK, Google or Amazon need to get involved. It is not ‘that’ easy, but that is what Deeper Machine Learning is for. Funny enough, my ships engineering skills (outdated since 1981) got into field and my thought patterns resembled one I had in UTS when I came up for a system to weed out false positives in bomb detection. Whilst everyone was focussing on where the bomb was, I decided to look at a way to remove false positives which took mere seconds and when you have 4 million passengers a year, having certain points where you can scan a passenger in less than 5 seconds matters. The fact that you weed out 80% of the false positives also matters as it suddenly leaves you with a manageable number of people and with Deeper Machine Learning that system merely gets to be more accurate, as such within months that number would have increased to 90%+ which makes is an possibility. It was merely a concept but I was happy (as was my professor). Now we get back to the story. You see, it took seconds to find this puppy.

Here we have a commercial Japanese solution of a underwater drone. It is not enough, because we have to tinker with it and to make a drone an autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) takes work and the battery would require an update, the function and the added hardware will be murder on the regularly installed battery. The nice part is that these puppies do not need sleep and they could scan the hull of any vessel in minutes. Two might get it done in a minute and now we get the setting, a set of two one to scan and one to validate the scanning by weeding out the false negatives. Hulls are simple, they are one setting, they are smooth and waterproofed. The idea that a hull is tampered with is not laughable, but it tends to be slightly ridiculous, as such an ‘adjusted’ hull is noticed by any AUV and teaching it a few additional things is not hard, not for the right Deeper Machine Learning expert. As such we need to consider like an autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). You see a place like New York might have millions of containers a year, but it does remain a relatively small about of vessels, as such a dozen drones would be able to scan all the vessels BEFORE they dock and that is the busiest port in the world. The drones could also be scanning for other things, like divers going on a tourist tour past any vessel which would be a big no-no. 

These settings alone were solved (by little old me) in less than a minute, so why were these methods not considered? Perhaps they were and they found a snag I never considered. I am not prefect, but I try to see the solution in a challenge, not the hiccup.

Still the exercise was fun for the minute I had it, it gave me something else to consider for a moment. And when you think on how I got there, wonder what else I can come up with tomorrow, but that is a setting I will consider in 18 hours. The drone will need adjustments too, scanners on the top (two sets) facing 30 degrees up and 90 degrees up, it also needs to be altered into an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), which will a little work. So when we added the initial and verification scan, we get a vessel with the ability to do it at the same time and it is done in seconds per 10 metres. The learning curve needs to be adjusted and it can be set against type of vessel. You see a coaster, a tanker and a cargo ship have slightly difference hulls, but the same principle applies, waterproof or sink. It is really that simple at times. The smugglers ‘adding’ a box at the hull will fall through the hoops in the initial minute and as such the boys in blue (with flippers) can capture the haul. The ones who were clever and added a ‘valve’ to allow the merchandise to sit between the outer and inner hull is a little harder, but when Machine Learning considers that these valves should not be there, the pattern adjusts  as well. This will create some initial false positives, but there is also the gain that we eliminated 90% of all vessels making this a relatively easy exercise.

Wow, 3 minutes of my brain productively used. I am getting good at my old age. So consider this a concept, consider this a joke, it is all up to you and the boys in blue.  I did my bit on Saturday and I am not going to get paid for it, so use it as you see fit.

I am now 230 minutes from Sunday, have fun and enjoy the sunshine (if there is any).

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Mere consideration

An article was given today in the Guardian. We can argue in many ways, there is no ‘Yay’ or ‘Nea’, there is no setting that gives rise to anything wrongfully reported (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/27/cassie-sainsbury-to-serve-six-years-in-colombian-jail-after-judge-accepts-plea-deal). The question that formed in my mind was all about the previous part, all about the part ignored. The Daily Telegraph (at http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/cassie-sainsbury-worked-as-a-prostitute-former-colleague-says-shes-a-compulsive-liar/news-story/e3897bc910b3c4d5d7f97d6b8eb406bc) states “the 22-year-old was a former sex worker who spent months working in a Western Sydney brothel in the lead up to her ill-fated ­Colombian trip“, another source gives us that she worked for Club 220. It does not make an impact, what does give us the goods is that this 22 year old went to Columbia of all places. I have nothing against Columbia, I worked with the Colombian presidential guards in 1982, all dedicated to their nation, a little fanatic, but all believing in what they did. Yet as a tourist, Colombia would never be on my list. Rio might (not too likely), yet Buenos Aires definitely would be on my list. Still from Australia that is not the most affordable trip. The cheapest was $2400 return whilst Buenos Aires is offered at $1750, all this whilst Jakarta is merely $270 away. Now, she might not like Indonesia, that’s fair. Yet in all this, Colombia is not the actual most desired place to go to. Some, especially those with connections would feel different and that is fair too. In all this there has been very little reporting on the reasoning of the 22 year old and her choice of travel. So as the Sydney Morning Herald reports “The plea bargain was then explained: if the deal was accepted by the prosecutor, the defence and the judge, Ms Sainsbury would be sentenced to 6 years of prison instead of the potential 30 year sentence if she was found guilty” sounds nice, yet in all this, the deciding players behind this, the elements do not add up. How long until we get scores flying to Bogota, because the coffee is just so much fresher in the place where the beans are plucked. We need not wonder on the validity of choice, merely accept the freedom to choose. It is a point of view we can agree with to some extent, yet questions still rise.

Even as we seem to focus on: “the judge asked Ms Sainsbury if she had been coerced into taking the plea deal“, I wonder how a plea deal is coerced, is a plea deal not the best option she could have hoped for? Was the option to stay in prison for 6 years, or be forced into 30 years? It would be the other way round and as such, how much arm twisting would be required? When we see “Ms Sainsbury was caught at Bogota’s international airport in April, trying to smuggle 5.8 kilograms of cocaine inside 18 separate packages of headphones“, so how was this any good idea? To become an exporter of headphones, whilst JB-Hifi sells quality Sony headsets for $34 (and JBL for $50)? How was any of this a good idea? We know that according to urban folk tales that criminals tend to be not too intelligent, but this dim? Nope, I am not buying it! In addition adding 330 grams to a headset package; something like that gets noticed and real fast too!

In all this, the Daily Telegraph now becomes in addition a worry for Cassie Sainsbury in other ways too. We see this in the two quotes “a former colleague of Sainsbury, who told Nine News she worked with her at brothel Club 220 near Penrith, has accused her of being a compulsive liar who once pretended her mother had died from MS” and “The former colleague said she had donated money to Sainsbury to cover her mother’s funeral costs and was horrified to see images of her mother alive and well on television“. Another claim given is “According to the colleague, Sainsbury went under the name of “Claudia” and listed herself online as “19 years old … classy, fun and ready to please”“, which get us to the situation that if the reliability of the accused is found to be non-existing, there is the chance that the judge throws out the option of plea bargain as the defence of the accused was “she was “threatened” into becoming a mule by an international drugs syndicate“, if there was no threat, she becomes the instigator of smuggling for large profits and that sets her on that 30 year train ride to nowhere.

I found the quote “Sainsbury’s fiancé Scott Broadbridge maintained his partner was innocent during an interview with Seven’s Sunday Night program. He said she was employed by a mystery couple who paid her $1800 a week to travel the world to work for their cleaning business“, it is interesting as it is a better income than most people at ASIS get, and they get into a lot more hot water, being in better shape and having a near Olympian constitution and well above decent looks too, which applies to both the boys and the girls working there. All elements Cassie lacked (as well as other shortcomings in education and degrees), so which cleaning business is hiring people at almost $10K a month?

There is a level of befuddlement within me as parts of all these given items are accepted by media, the courts and apparently the gullible audience. In all this, the Sydney Morning Herald gives one additional Gem that the AAP seems to have missed. When we consider “Given that any amount over 5 kilos is considered “aggravated circumstances” and draws a higher penalty, Ms Sainsbury could be facing 30 years in Colombian prison“, so no matter who was involved, the issue of this element which could have been diminished by trying to smuggle 4.9 Kg instead of the 5.8Kg is showing to be an element, especially as the 18 headsets were already a joke, the difference of 50 grams per headset would still have been noticed, but overall, on the two elements (apart from the mindlessness of trying to personally export 18 headsets whilst you are competing against players you have no chance against), we see that there is an element of stupid greed coming in. When drug tourism relied on the elements of stupid and gullible (added with two tits and a vagina to make the package even more appealing), whomever was linked in all this, going for the lower threshold of staying below 5000 grams might have had another (read: better) impact.

This is not merely the limitations of a system, this is a different circus. The Australian Daily Telegraph is also giving us “Bogota hotel manager describes man whom accused drug mule says tricked her into smuggling cocaine“, in addition; the quotes given give additional light on the less factually given job with $1800 a week. The quote “Ms Hernandez saying she stood out at her hotel because she arrived without a reservation and paid for her accommodation only two days at a time“, would a ‘business‘ trip not be prearranged? How would the ‘cleaning business‘ continue without a clear itinerary as well as clear invoices? In addition to that, the quote which is seen in news.com.au “Earlier it was revealed the US Drug Enforcement Agency reportedly alerted Colombian authorities to their suspicions about Ms Sainsbury. “We found her because of an alert from the DEA [Drug Enforcement Agency],” Bogota airport’s narcotics chief, Commander Rodrigo Soler, told News Corp Australia” the entire mess gets another image entirely. If the given is true, not only is the entire mess as I personally speculate it to be a farce, there is every consideration that she was a 5.8Kg decoy for other parties to get out without a hitch. Consider the facts. She got into the hotel on April 3rd, left April 12th and got arrested on the airport. So in 9 days, she got approached, likely after a few days the ‘coercion‘ was made so in less than 7 days, a infiltrated drug ring got data to the DEA, the name and details forwarded to other parties so she could be arrested. So someone gave up $20,650 in goods (Colombian value of Cocaine), which in Australia would be $1.74 million. Is that what really happened, or was the actual catch to send two additional models (or a couple) each with 2,450 grams of cocaine (total value $1.45 million), whilst the total venture costed $35.5K and three plane tickets. It could just be me, yet when we hear screaming of a high profile drug dealer being caught on boarding the flight those getting of the plane in Sydney might have a lot more smooth sailing.

In the end, there is a chance that she was merely the patsy in this endeavour, whether it was a willing one or a coerced one is hard to tell, however the evidence is not in her favour at present. In light of all this, when we go back to Chapelle Corby who had a bag and a boogie board and decided to add more than the weight of a boogie board in Marijuana in a place that hates drugs with a passion, now we see equally less intelligent acts by a person nicknamed in the papers as ‘Ccocaine Cassie‘, yes, if all hedge funds managers were only that stupid the economy would have been in a much better place.

In my view, we cannot oppose the fact that the bulk of papers are merely reporting on what the AAP is giving them (read: reporting should be copy and paste), yet the ‘articles’ left me with merely common sense issues on nearly every level. In all this I wonder if the court and prosecutor had done their due diligence in addition to all this. Should we have expected more from the Australian Associated Press? They report themselves to be the “AAP is the media company that businesses turn to for news, information and publishing solutions. With breaking news firmly at our core, our vast range of products and services help clients connect with and engage their audiences. AAP is your integrated, simple solution“, yet the AAP made no mention of the 5Kg threshold and what is the verdict on both sides of that isle. In addition, something that was not on the list is the question on how many trips Cassie had been on since she turned 18? I would love to know how she got to decide on Bogota without knowing where else she had been, as that stands to the character of the accused. In addition, considering that the weight of a headset is around 200 grams, replacing that with in excess of 150% weight in cocaine seems even less intelligent. When we get an overdose of details on the lingerie of Kim Kardashian and a lack of facts and evidence in a reported drug hearing, the lack of questions asked all over the place is a little too deafening to my liking.

In all that, the valid words of immigration minister, Peter Dutton as we hear “People need to abide by the laws of that country. If not, they will face serious consequences,” might be well, but it falls on the ears of those stating ‘who the fuck cares?

This directly relates to the lack of visibility we see given to the defence lawyer of Cassie, in this as I see it, only the International Business Times gave any level of visibility to Orlando Herran. Here we see what was given to 60 minutes. With “someone on Craigslist offering a loan and a trip to London, she jumped at the opportunity. However, the itinerary was allegedly changed to Hong Kong, Los Angeles and Bogota“, how was that missed and changed to merely ‘a global cleaning service‘? Does this impede the reliability of the statements of the accused even further? That would be for the court to decide, but overall there has been a level of skipping that is just way too weird. In this the evidence also not reported on was who paid for the flight? Was it in cash (where was it paid) or credit card? All evidence not shown to the audience by the media either.

In the mere consideration here I see a failing on several sides and in all this there would be the required additional forensic digital investigation regarding the Craigslist as well, as it could be useful evidence. This entire event has too many holes and several unlooked places, especially when you consider that the DEA had its own role to play in all this.

 

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