Tag Archives: diplomacy

What The Actual Fuck

That was the first thought that I had when US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra opened his mouth again. Then again, his lifetime service ends in 1089 days, so Canada survive his term for another three years? So what brought this about? Well, CBC gives us (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/norad-canada-us-f35-9.7059800) ‘NORAD pact would change if Canada pulls back from F-35 order, warns U.S. ambassador’ where we see “and would fly them more often into Canadian airspace to address threats approaching the U.S.” what does that flagrantly inappropriate piece of (whatever he is) think he is by violating Canadian airspace without consent of the Canadian government? A case might be made on Changing NORAD, they are usually too busy tracking Santa Claus with their systems, making these systems active one day a year. But to give Canada the setting that we  are given that “Ambassador Hoekstra describes the current defence relationship as “awesome,” but says such interventions by the U.S. military over Canada would increase if Canada does not increase its purchase of F-35s beyond the 16 currently on order.” And the setting that America has any input in HOW MANY and which airplanes come the Seraglio of the United States (their new nickname) is beyond his seat and beyond his entitlement (as I personally see it). So when I see “U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Canada is warning of consequences to the continental defence pact if Canada does not move forward with the purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets.” I feel entitled to loosely lose it. Canada is making his requirement known and it is THEIR opinion that the Saab JAS 39 Gripen can do the job as the choice for Canadian defence, that is up to the people who are empowered (in Canada) to do so, not for the White House, or are the losses that the White House enacted over themselves no longer paying for the electricity bill? You know that stuff that is coming from Canada and now comes with a 100% tariff?

In this light I would personally offer the setting that the 88 F-35’s are an option when it comes with a 63.4% discount, but then it would still be up for Minister Mélanie Joly and Minister David McGuinty to give that go ahead, but in no way is there any acceptance that this is up to American Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, or to even suggest that USA planes fly into Canada (without permission) and take optionally seen as hostile actions. And as NORAD is also in Alaska, there is enough time for the Canadian air force to take positive actions before there is an actual issue on United States soil. 

So even as the article in CBC ends with ““That’s crazy. We’re not a threat,” said Hoekstra.” I would like to add “Not we, you are the threat Ambassador Hoekstra” and you better realise that really soon before you run your mouth again in anti-Canadian outbursts, as the selling through threats of buying airlines to counter invasion tactics, it shows the ‘craft’ level of a lousy second hand car salesman and Canada made its choice when it selected the Saab to do the job at  25% of the cost and perhaps it was partially selected because your boss ran his mouth with those ‘51st state’ remarks. So at present there are concerns that the United States needs to sell at least 105 F-35 airplanes to counter the setting of “US Treasury bonds experienced a significant sell-off, with yields on 10-year notes reaching 4.3% and 30-year yields touching 4.9%. This surge in yields, the highest since September 2025, was driven by concerns over potential trade wars with Europe and geopolitical tensions. Foreign investors hold roughly 31% ($9.4 trillion) of US debt, and some European entities have signaled a re-evaluation of their holdings.” It comes with the unconfirmed information from a source that Goldman Sachs had sold over 800 billion in bonds. I only had one source and no validation of this, not with the SEC (who had over 4200 documents of actions by Goldman Sachs), but it might not be easy to find as 800 billion+ implies that the United States and its dollar are pretty much done for, not something you want to herald to the media. And I was ready to reject it, but in comes Ambassador Pete Hoekstra making demands that Canada takes a 100% of the 88 Lockheed Martin dinky toys (could be corgi toys), now that lose statement of sold bonds seems a little too ‘conveniently’ out there. But there is another setting, since when does any government bully its way to the purchase line with an overpriced drone that requires a pilot? So, are you feeling the animosity yet Ambassador Hoekstra? And I am a mere Australian, but that makes me a Commonwealthian and one that stands with its Canadian brothers (sisters too). You seemingly forgot that you are merely boasting towards Canadians, but as it stands you are offending Australians (aka Aussies), New Zealanders (aka Kiwi’s) and the United Kingdom (aka Britons) as well. As such you might want to pick up your book ‘101 ways for being clever in diplomacy’ up again, you might have looked into that in your first year in addressing negotiation, international relations, and conflict resolution. Optionally books given to you by UNITAR, but that is mere speculation by me. 

And perhaps you want to point pout where you can do such a thing as the 11 principles that govern NORAD include (as 6th principle) “No permanent change of station for forces under NORAD control can occur without national authority approval.” Or even principle 11 which gives us “The agreement includes provisions for review or renewal (originally set for 10 years).” When exactly is that renewal due? I might be foggy on this part. So exactly who is in charge of NORAD? We are given “The Commander and Deputy Commander will not be from the same country; appointments require approval from both nations.” So when did you discuss this matter with General Gregory Guillot of the United States Air Force? Or perhaps his deputy (which I personally doubt) which is General Iain S. Huddleston of the Royal Canadian Air Force. And perhaps you might want to refresh my mind on where it stands what flying materials each player brings to the NORAD table. As I stated, I might be foggy on that part and in this the media is no help at all.

But I reckon you know all this because you opened your mouth and as such you would have reviewed the materials before speaking. It might be an incorrect view on the matter but don’t several diplomacy books tell the diplomat to any table prepared for what is to come? Sun Tzu (not a diplomat) tells us that victory is secured through meticulous preparation and strategic calculation before a battle begins. And as you entered that field speaking, I gathered that you would have been prepared for that and as such you would have familiarised yourself with the doctrine of NORAD. Was I right?

So you all have a great day and as I stood up for my Canadian brethren (sisters too) I feel great and I am now 150 minutes from breakfast, so I feel good. Especially as I feel the urgent urge for coffee at this time.

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Wall and writing

Yup that is the setting and it will be clear soon enough. It was a day in July when I wrote (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/07/18/for-those-not-seeing-the-oil-field/) titled ‘For those not seeing the oil field’, there I wrote “What happens when they sell 2.5 million barrels a day less and let that go to the US shortage?” So this was three months ago and now we see at NPR (at https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126754169/opec-oil-production-cut) “The OPEC+ alliance announced a 2 million barrels a day cut in oil production Wednesday”, so I was off by only 500,000 barrels a day. I mentioned on a few occasions ‘I told you so’ and this time around it ill cost you, it will cost you a lot, because 2 million barrels less implies a fuel price rise of 10%-20% from the start and still in that time no one asked Brent oil any heavy questions. It is a commercial enterprise and as such it does not care about Americans and their cheap fuel needs. So whilst we all stare at “President Biden has been trying to rein in prices at the gas pump ahead of the midterm elections” all whilst he did close to nothing to rein in Brent and their selling of well over 75% of their stock abroad. You just cannot have it both ways. If you wanted cheap oil, they needed to treat Saudi Arabia as a real ally to a much better degree than they did. Consider going to the pastry shop asking: “Yo fat fuck, gimme a pastry for 10 cents” what are the chances that will work? Even if you make it “Sir can you please sell me a pastry for 10 cents” there will not be too many shops who will do that. A friend might, but America did whatever they could to make the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a pariah whilst embracing the delay tactics of Iran, Saudi Arabia’s proxy enemy. This was all going to happen one way or another and the fake claims on Russia and Saudi Arabia are a joke. This all plays straight into the hands of China who optionally might end up with that extra oil. All settings that were out in the open from the beginning. On the other hand if oil prices go up, Saudi Arabia might be more interested in my IT solution that gives them at least $500 million a month extra. Time will tell (the commercial manager in the Saudi Consulate in Sydney is seemingly too busy to see me). Well time will tell what comes next but for now Americans will see fuel prices jump, they will see their wages go towards arming thanksgiving and Christmas households and all whilst they are all ‘enjoying’ dinner wearing thicker pants and an extra jumper. As such fashion houses take notice of those needs. 

The writing was on the walls and I saw that danger happen 3 months ago. So whilst the US and UK went to Riyadh to ‘kindly please send more cheap oil our ways’ they forgot the first rule of diplomacy (politics too), you cannot make that effort empty handed and then let other organisations slap Saudi Arabia around, it never ever works that way. So when we consider “Yasser Elguindi, the head of macro research at Energy Aspects, says there’s a perception that the Saudis are trying to push prices back to or above $100 per barrel by cutting production and tightening the market. He says the magnitude of the proposed cut has caught people by surprise”, take time to notice that I saw that danger three months ago, so the ‘by surprise’ part is either hollow or a clear first show of reduced levels of competency. Yes the latter part is pure speculation, but feel free to check my earlier article, and consider what is up.

No matter how you slice it, the timing of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is pretty good, winter is coming. Where did I hear that before? No matter what, it will be a cold Christmas this year for a lot of Americans. I wonder what the impact will be in the states like New York, Pennsylvania and Washington, not to mention Washington DC. But the media might continue to avoid the Brent Crude Oil settings and for President Biden and the current PM of the United Kingdom I suggest that they take time and get the Master of Arts in International Relations and Diplomacy or brush up on what you learned there. It might help matters a little. Just some food for thought.

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