Tag Archives: Gulf of Aden

Where the dogs sleep

That is a setting that might be true to the stage and to the setting, but are the settings pointing this out? That is the stage as I see it, but am I right? If you think you are a critical thinker, that should be a top-of-mind situation. So whilst we see ‘Saudi Arabia intercepts wave of Houthi missiles as oil climbs to one-week high’ and we are given “The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said the missiles were aimed at Taif and the Yanbu area on the Red Sea, the main alternative route for Saudi oil” we need to see that this comes at the same time as “Oil prices climbed about 3%, but trade was volatile and prices came off session highs after reports the US and Iran discussed reopening the strait of Hormuz.” And it gives me a thought. Are the Houthis nothing more than the cheap harlots of Iran? The second thought that is coming to me is “How are the Houthis supplied?” And yes we might point the finger at Hezbollah, but that would be too easy. Iran will do what it can to lessen stress on their own smugglers, but at the same time we take notice of “While claiming that their blockade only applies to Saudi shipping and there remains no threat to commercial shipping on the Red Sea, the Houthis have also warned other nations not to get involved.” A clear signal to the UK to not get involved. And I have had it with these terrorists. A signal needs to be given and I believe that a union between China and the EU might be essential for this, with a clear setting. Iran can sell its oil to China (at a discount) but if they do not seize their actions the hint for the three terrorist organisations (Houthi, Hezbollah and Hamas) will open in earnest and we will give any intelligence to stomp these terrorists down with the help of Mossad. And the second thing we do is to utterly destroy 10 refineries in Iran so they are left with one exploit, selling their raw oil to China and if they are left with this one option, Iran doesn’t get to set the price, China does. I feel perfectly fine testing my new IP on Bandar Abbas, its harbours and the railroads. This is what true horror looks like, not some orange person threatening, but a nameless civil person actually destroying what they hold dear. That is what true horror implies. It is not the one boasting, it is the silent person in a corner taking out whatever you desire. 

So, is that a clear message?
As I see it, too much media is holding out for that scrappy bit of paper, holding out for revenue, but news is not revenue, it is in part art in part deciding the best way to bring the new, not bring it in a setting that makes the most money and it is like that in gaming. The BI people in gaming do what THEY see as the most profitable setting and then they get influencers to state that hoping they can get enough gamers around to THEIR way of thinking, but gamers are like inventors, we see a niche and we use that to set a new chart, a new course and we go with this and I am in support of Saudi Arabia, I do what will solve their issues, not the issues of a broke United States, a needy Houthi Terrorist or a desperate Iran (and its IRGC). And as we see “Riyadh’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan would hold an urgent meeting of their chiefs of staff ‌to ‌discuss ways to ‌support repel the Houthi attacks under their joint ‌defence agreement. Under the defence pact, all three countries agreed that an armed attack on any one of them would be treated as an attack on all three. Officials in Pakistan are said to be deeply worried about being dragged into the never-ending war unfolding across the Middle East.” As I see it Pakistan hopped for some free publicity not seeing what Iran was up to and there is no never-ending war, just destroy Iran and the others fall back into place, they fear doing this alone and the hardware from Iran has been helping them, take that away and their lust for need and greed falls away quite fast. In that setting the United States could have helped by destroying any Iranian ships hading into the Gulf of Aden and searching every other vessel on that course. I reckon that an observation post on Socotra might assist in this. It would also fuel the setting if Eritrea is as innocent as it proclaims because there is still the thought that Houthis might pay top dollar on anything coming from the Sudan and whilst some players might divert 20% from the Sudan to pay for the 80% heading there, it is in my eyes simple presumption and I react to evidence, not to speculative thoughts. And wasn’t it Gibbs (NCIS) that told us ‘Trust but verify’, I knew this decades before that series launched, but it is never a bad thing to reassess early thoughts there might have been in the mix.

So whilst the international community might react to “Yemen’s internationally recognised government pressed world leaders on Thursday for help defeating the militants, saying that their new perch along one of the world’s busiest waterways presents an international economic risk.” But as I see it 95% of the pain that Yemen is experiencing comes from Iran and whilst we are ‘given’ “Iran is currently facing severe, compounding internal pressures driven by an acute economic collapse, historic political transitions, and escalating public unrest. Following the massive disruptions of the 2026 military conflict with the U.S. and Israel, including the assassination of long-time Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the ruling establishment is struggling to maintain domestic control amid an unprecedented erosion of its legitimacy” and there is another option there. China could influence that setting by installing a China based Iranian government. The world will see a decrease in escalations, the Gulf States will allow for this as the attack on them will seize (Qatar might not like this), but the rest will and whilst China gets the oil there it will look better for China in a whole range of ways. In this setting China gets an optional voice n OPEC (and OPEC plus) all whilst the attack stop on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so they are likely happy and with Houthi no longer getting supplies from Iran there is another release of pressures on Saudi Arabia. As I see it the population of Iran might like this too, as the old political powerpoint are removed, the people of Iran could actually work on THEIR future. 

I tend to see only upsides in this and whilst there are likely negative sides, they might not be seen as significant as the other pressure points fall away. 

Look at me, I created a viable solution toward overthrowing the current Iranian government. I am feeling kinda proud of that. 

So, you can think what you want (and be massively against my ideas), but look at the price of fuel, what caused this? (Disregarding the orange peril to the world) and it might also fuel the solutions in Hamas and Hezbollah, because when they no longer get access to weapons and funds, they will be on their last moments of existence. You see, you might think that you know where the dogs sleep, but the danger isn’t that, it is what happens when eve one wakes up. Its ‘yap’ wakes up the others and that is where the problems start.  A simple setting that von Clausewitz gave us (I tend to prefer Sun Tzu in most matters) “Non-state militant groups do not engage in violence for random chaos or pure financial gain; rather, they use fear, intimidation, and coercion to pursue distinct political, social, or religious goals. In a grim Clausewitzian sense, their violence is an instrument of policy aimed at compelling an opponent to submit to their will” as I see it, Iran is the instigator relying on fear, intimidation, and coercion to pursue its desperation. Take that away and the rest falls into place. And it is my believe that Iranians under China might get a lot better then what it is now and that could spell internet support for that new setting as well.  Feel free to call me a stupid optimist, but I tend to look at these settings creatively and there is nothing creative about Iran, so we introduce it and at the same time we remove the pillars of support the Houthi’s are currently getting. Have a great day all.

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What surely comes next!

Today I took another look at what the Washington Post reported on Mark Zuckerberg, even as today will not be about that. It will however 100% for certain, soon be about 44 senators, I am collecting data on losers like Rep. David McKinley (W.Va.), who accused Zuckerberg and Facebook of “hurting people” by failing to thwart those who try to sell opioids on the site. So he will soon face my exposure on how Heroin-related overdoses in West Virginia have increased by 200% by Nov 2017 and even more at present since measures were implemented to limit prescription opioid use. In addition a recent source gives us ‘Drug companies shipped nearly 21 million opioid painkillers to a town with 2,900 people‘, which was 3 months ago, so as I see it, the republican loser from West Virginia can join the Texas ranks as one of the least useful persons in the USA. But do not worry, these senators have accumulated loads of visibility and I will save some space for all 44 of them. So as this is coming soon enough, let’s take a look what matters today.

You see, the issues in the Middle East are accelerating and the issues are becoming more and more extreme. Even as we saw “The announcement was made at the High Level Pledging Event for the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen held in Geneva today, bringing total EU funding to Yemen to €438.2 million since the beginning of the crisis in 2015. Speaking at the event in Geneva today, Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis” a mere week ago (source: EU News), the issue is not how much is going there, but whether that pays for any humanitarian relief. You see, Yemeni Houthi’s fired ballistic missiles at Riyadh, which according to Al Jazeera travelled more than 800 Km into Saudi Arabia (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/yemen-houthi-rebels-fire-ballistic-missile-saudi-capital-180411153418562.html), and when we see “Sharaf Lokman, a spokesman for the Houthis, said the attack came after Saleh al-Samad – president of the Supreme Political Council that runs Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and other rebel-held areas – declared the start of “a year of ballistic missiles““, can we blame Saudi Arabia for whatever comes next? Whatever comes next is likely to be today and as the papers are all about how civilians were hit in all this, it seems to me that there is an unbalance in what is reported on several sides, giving rise to different levels of scrutiny and bias, whilst those needing to get all the news are blatantly ignored. When we see “the kingdom’s defence forces saying they intercepted missiles that targeted Riyadh and another city, and drones targeting an airport and an Aramco oil facility in the country’s south“, many people forget that all this requires technology, knowledge and heaps of additional logistics. So how are the Houthi rebels getting this stuff? Someone is supplying them and even as we realise that these puppies are not cheap, we tend to forget that the cost is rising quickly, especially when we see “a year of ballistic missiles”. Even under the best of conditions Yemen could not afford any of it, so they shouldn’t be able to get the mere fuel for these missiles, where is the rest coming from? When we consider the players who could afford it, how come the EU is all about “Martin Griffiths initial priority should be to listen rather than act“, whilst someone is ordering missiles by the dozen a day (an assumption from my side), where are these funds coming from? I think that the part “Martin Griffiths has an opportunity to serve as a bridge between international and regional actors and to benefit from European diplomatic initiatives” sounds slightly too much like a joke when we see the adverse actions taken. In this the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) might be a mere think tank, yet even they need to work on the premise of reality and achievability, two parts that are not coming to their doorstep any day soon if they keep on ignoring certain cash flow issues in all this. You see, Saudi Arabia almost has no option left but to strike back as hard as they can. If they do not, they are merely opening themselves to additional attacks from Hezbollah Al-Hejaz. A group that Iran planned to revive last year and as matters go, there is every chance that they have gone beyond the planning stage. If there is any truth to the entire “a year of ballistic missiles” matter, it implies (to some extent) that certain parts are in play and Iran cannot get caught there in any way. Having a resurrected puppet like Hezbollah Al-Hejaz is the most likely solution for them. Even as they know that it will be a signal for Israel to hit Hezbollah in their region, the outcome is a certain level of destabilisation, which is as I personally see it the first need for Iran. If they have any plans towards hurting Saudi Arabia, destabilisation is a clear first tactical need. In this Saudi Arabia has its work cut out in equal measure. It needs a few solid iron strikes against the Yemeni Houthi’s for Iran to realise that they are truly biting off more than they can chew and that is the only way (without a full scale skirmish) for Iran to reconsider the situation that they are on. In equal measure, Turkey is seeing the initial impact of its actions in Syria as the Turkey’s embattled lira hit a new low of around 4.14 to the US dollar. Turkey suffers from 10% inflation driven by an enormous internal credit bubble, a current account deficit of nearly 6% of GDP, and a US$220 billion corporate debt load in foreign currency. All this the Erdogan response is ““There are games being played on our economy,” he said in a speech in Ankara. “I call to those attacking our economy: You will not succeed. Just like you failed before, you will fail again”“. As I see it the idea that the cost of a war would largely impede ones economy as billions go to the cost of fuel for tanks and the ammunition for troops and tanks and even more resources for feeding the troops, all Trillions of Turkish Lira’s not going to the Turkish civilian needs and infrastructure probable has not yet sunk in with the President of Turkey, so that is that lack of insight to add to the tumbling Turkish economy as well? The good part here is that as they face those elements they need to shy away from becoming the Iranian tool in the Middle East outside of Syria, so that would optionally give Saudi Arabia more breathing space, how these acts could be used to stop Iran remains unclear at present, but there is every chance that Israel and the US are pissed off enough to do something silly like open up a full scale theatre of war in Syria (after the chemical attacks) and as such, if Russia does not respond with actual war and tries the diplomatic path to calm things down, Iran will not be left with any option but to wage war alone against Saudi Arabia, whilst Israel and the US will side with Saudi Arabia, the second part is that Yemen will suddenly lose all Iranian support which will change everything there as well.

The only direct path at present (as I personally see it) is to find out how the missiles make it to Yemen and make sure that the next 3 shipments are scuttled in the Gulf of Aden or the Arabian Sea, making the entire endeavour way too expensive for those with additional agenda’s. Yet the reality is that there are unknowns at present. It is not the missiles themselves, but the support system behind it all. Someone is getting trained there and finding out by whom and how is actually more important, sinking a shipment is one thing, getting rid of the instructors through targeted killings makes the next 6 shipments useless and therefor a tactic to be favoured (if realistically possible). In all this the person(s) training the Houthi are likely to be shielded, but it seems to me that finding them might be easier in the long run. Any Houthi firing team that the Saudi military can dispose of would delay the “year of ballistic missiles” tactic by several months with each successful hit making the statement Saleh al-Samad an unrealistic boast that could drown moral the way it needs to be, because as long as this goes on in Yemen, the 850,000 half-starved children (as reported by Oxfam) will not get to have any chance of survival.

Yet that is the way of inaction, even as action might be worse in the short term, resolving the issue would also imply that humanitarian aid could be possible after that. In all this, no matter what we think might happen, we do know that death is surely coming for thousands, if not for hundreds of thousands of the civilian population, a population of 10 million of Yemeni who are currently out of food, water, electricity and medicine, and their chances for survival? When we consider the mere premise of “The World Bank predicts that Yemen’s oil and gas revenues will plummet during 2009 and 2010, and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out“, we might have to realise that the Yemeni’s need to consider not being alive, at the lives of Syrians were set to zero on the abacus of life due to a none economic value, the plight of the Yemeni people might be worse and that is not just in light of their value, that realisation also gives us that this nation has no funds to work with, so how would they be paying for their “year of ballistic missiles“? #JustAsking!

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