Tag Archives: Medical

Just Asking

Today I started to ask questions within me. I have been an outspoken critic on the fact of AI and knowing it doesn’t exist questions came to mind. Question that, as I see it the BBC isn’t asking either. So lets get to this game and let you work out what is real.

Phase One
In phase one we look at AI and the data, you see any deeper machine learning solution (whether you call it AI or not) will depend on data. Now we get that no matter what you call this solution it will require data. Now that Deeper Machine Learning and LLM solutions require data (as well as the fact that the BBC is throwing article after article at us) who verifies the data?

Consider that these solutions have access to all that data, how can any solution (AI or not) distinguish the relevant data? We get the BBC in January give us this quote “That includes both smaller, specialist AI-driven biotech companies, which have sprung up over the past decade, and larger pharmaceutical firms who are either doing the research themselves, or in partnership with smaller firms.” My personal issue is that they all want to taste from the AI pie and there are many big and small companies vying for the same slice. So who verifies the data collected? If any entry in that data sphere requires verification, what stops errors from seeping through? This could be completely unintentional, but it will happen. And any Deeper Machine Learning system cannot inspect itself. It remains a human process. We will be given a whole range of euphemistic settings to dance around that subject, but in short. When that question is asked, the medical presenter is unlikely to have the answer and the IT person might dance around the subject. Only once did I get a clear answer from a Chinese data expert “We made an assumption on the premise of the base line according to the numbers we have had in the past”, which was a decent answer and I didn’t expect that answer making it twice as valuable. There is the trend that people will not know the setting and in the now there is as I see it, a lack of verification. 

Phase Two
Data Entry is a second setting. As the first is the verification of data that is handled, the second question is how was this data entered? It is that setting and not the other way round. You must have verifiable data to get to the data entry part. If you select a million parameters, how can you tell if a parameter is where it needs to be? And then there is a difference between intrinsic and extrinsic data. What is observed and what is measured. Then we get to the stage that (as the most simple setting) that are the Celsius and Fahrenheit numbers correct (is there a C when if should be an F) you might think that it is obvious, but there are settings when that is a definite question mark. Again, nothing intentional, but the question remains. So when we consider that and Deeper Machine Learning comes with a guidance and all this comes from human interactions. There will be questions and weirdly enough I have never seen them or seen anyone ask this (looking way beyond the BBC scope).

Phase Three
This is a highly speculative part. You see environment comes into play here and you might have seen it on a vacation. Whilst the locals enjoy market food, you get a case of the runs. This is due to all kinds of reasons. Some are about water and some about spices. As such the locals are used to the water and spices but you cannot handle either. This is an environmental setting. As such the data needs to be seen with personal medical records and that is a part we often do not see (which makes sense), but in that setting how can any solution make a ‘predicted’ setting when part of that data is missing?

So, merely looking at these three settings. I have questions and before you think I am anti-AI. I am not, it merely doesn’t exist yet and whilst the new Bazooka Joe’s are hiding behind the cloak of AI, consider that all this require human intervention. From Data Entry, to verification and the stage of environmental factors. So do you really think that an Indian system will have the same data triggers as a Swedish one? And consider that I am merely asking questions, questions the BBC and many others aren’t seemingly asking.

So take a moment to let that shift in and consider how many years we are away from verified data and now consider all the claims you see in the news. And this is only the medical field. What other fields have optionally debatable data issues?

Have a great day and when Mr. Robot say all is well, make sure you get a second opinion from a living GP. 

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Brain in overdrive

That happens and It just happened to me, the reason being this tweet. Now, that does not me the given facts are true, but I am willing to go on faith here and the setting becomes a weirdly unsettling one.

So here we see the setting that 4 out of 5 women had a miscarriage. That’s 80% and that number should scare anyone. Is it true? We want to reject it, just like we want to reject “What was in the water” but in all honesty we cannot dismiss either, unless you can prove that the 80% statement is wrong. One untested source gives me “For women who know they’re pregnant, about 10 to 20 in 100 pregnancies (10 to 20 percent) end in miscarriage. Most miscarriages – 8 out of 10 (80 percent) – happen in the first trimester before the 12th week of pregnancy”, this is for the USA. Not sure what other nations are and there is no telling how bad it gets, but the statement is there. To take a little trip in my memory lane, I have known hundreds of women and I am aware of only 3 cases. This does not mean that there were only three, I reckon that most women will not talk about things like that other than to another woman and I get that. But from less than 2% to 80% is a jump and that gives validity to “What was in the water?” You see when these numbers add up to 80% something is driving this and the water is an option. We only need to look back to the Erin Brockovich story to see that things end up in the water and that was BEFORE Shale gas drilling became a fact. Now? I have no way of telling, but in the US big business tends to make policy, not the actual policy makers. 

The second statistic comes into play now. I cannot tell if that number is normal, but it wasn’t and now we see “Most miscarriages – 8 out of 10 (80 percent) – happen in the first trimester before the 12th week of pregnancy” this does not seem natural, something drives this and water makes sense, but the environment is a lot bigger than water and as I understand it pregnancy is a setting of checks and balances and the balances is where it is at. So what is causing that level of imbalance? I do not know but the data puzzler in me is going into overdrive. In this age of overpopulation I shouldn’t be, but consider that the next two generations are lost to us, what will we be left with? If 35% is entering the ‘old fart’ stage, and we lost the bulk of 2 generations. This implies that our population will dwindle down to a little over 5 billion before 2070, not a bad setting as the planet could use a breather, but what we neglect is that any environmental impact on us could remain for the next 5 generations, and in this who remains? That is a much larger question and a much larger issue to deal with. So is this over-hyped? Perhaps, but can we afford to ignore this setting? I don’t think so. This planet needs relief and I am not willing to set it up a species that has destroyed its own balance to procreate. I do not have any answers and any answer I uncover only needs to more questions. For one, the ‘official’ number is debatable, but there is nothing countering it. One answer was “Most pregnancy losses are due to factors that the person cannot control”, I understand the answer, I merely refuse to accept it. The environment (and the water) is something we do not control, but someone is allowing it to contain toxins. I also see that several ‘official’ sources have EXACTLY the same text, so there is a common source there. Yet In Australia I saw “One study that tracked women’s hormone levels daily to detect very early pregnancy determined a miscarriage rate of 31 per cent.” 31% is a long way of 80% and that should have led to a lot more questions, but I do not see them, do you?

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