Tag Archives: Mortality

The Kipling manouver

Yes, it is about India, and at this moment a certain counter is at 39,887. So whilst I am telling you this story, based on all kinds of data, I will be preparing the next setting and let havoc rule. The Indian stage is set to Rudyard Kipling, in this that I look at Mine Own People, is that not the Indian station they face? Whilst the BBC gives us ‘India passes 20 million cases amid oxygen shortage’, we will be confronted with all kinds of data and we do get part of the goods with “testing numbers have dipped as well, sparking fears that India’s true caseload is far higher. Case numbers, however, have been consistently falling in Maharashtra state, which had driven the second wave since early April”, I personally believe that the second wave is getting too much credit and the first wave was ignored to a too large a degree. As we see here ‘fears that India’s true caseload is far higher’, I believe that to be a much larger truth. Even as we are given “fuelled by lax safety protocols and massive public festivals and election rallies, has also overwhelmed its hospitals” we only see a partial truth. The image that world-o-meter gives us might spark your view.

There is no real data proving my thoughts, but I find the data from January 1st to March 31st debatable. I added pictures of Indian market places from last October and other images as well are not encouraging. There is in my mind no acceptable version that this data is correct, I believe and accept that the second wave is more contagious, but the curve we see here does not match any acceptable infection curve. The weird part is that the media blatantly accepts whatever is handed to them and why is that? 

Could I be wrong?
Yes, off course I can be wrong, I am also debating whether I am right, but consider the curve we see, consider the images we saw, consider the numbers that some gave us, they do not add up. Whilst we saw the numbers in Germany, Spain, UK and US, no one is questioning them from a place with 1.3 billion people. No one is wondering how these numbers whilst there is no lockdown stayed in check. Well, if you do not measure, if you have no data, you basically have nothing to report. We now see “But experts say India’s Covid death toll is vastly under-reported as official tallies don’t appear to match what people are witnessing on the ground”, a setting I expected already 6 months ago and now governments are all ‘rising’ to the underreported occasion. So as we get “Many states have introduced restrictions, from full lockdowns to night curfews. The northern state of Bihar, which has been adding about 13,000 daily cases in recent days, is the latest to announce a full lockdown”, is anyone noticing ‘introduced restrictions’? A setting the rest of the world pushed towards a year ago, on the other hand, those American idiots that are all making ‘anti-lockdown’ complaint, they can look at India and die the same way. They can look at the death numbers and see what is possible in the US, on the positive side, if the US gets another 200K fatalities there would be less unemployment, the US would have a better fitting budget and the people might overall end up being a lot more clever, not good news for the Republicans, but there is always one party crying, that is the way to donut rolls.

Why being blunt?
That is easy to answer, we tried diplomacy and euphemisms for way too long and the world I running out of time, nature would love it if the population declines at least another 23%, but they might not get that part either. In all this we might take notice of “it’s also true that daily cases have fallen, on average, in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, all hotspot states”, yet I wonder how those numbers could be trusted. Even as SBS reported with ‘Calls for nationwide lockdown as India surpasses 20 million COVID-19 cases’, we need to wonder why a national lockdown has not been in place for a long time. And even as the media is making ‘grim’ callings, now, we see that there are 20,000,000 infections and it might seem lower than the US, yet with a population 500% of the US and only 50% of the infections that the US has, the numbers do not add up, especially when you consider that (regardless of those opposing lockdowns) the US at least had some and had some social distancing demands, a side that India is pretty much unable to do, the population pressure is that high. 

The quote “The other issue, experts say, is insufficient testing. While Uttar Pradesh, one of the worst-affected states, has recorded no drop in testing figures, it’s testing far less than other states” is pretty much on the nose, the ‘insufficient testing’ is an issue for pretty much all India and that was pretty visible 6 months ago, so why is everyone pussyfooting around India? 

People all screaming the need for responsibility and no one seems to be taking it. And even as we are told that shortages will last for months, without a proper lockdown scenario the numbers will continue to rise and even when it slows down the numbers will continue for a long time to come. As I see it, no matter how it turns, until India receives well over 2.5 billion doses of a vaccine, there is every chance that Covid-19 will be present in India when we are well into 2023, a setting the Indian government will loudly deny and when that evidence comes out in 2023, one person takes the blame, falls onto their sword and the Indian government will make new arrangements. 

What a nice speculated prediction, isn’t it?

Have a great day.

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When fear becomes key

This is me, sitting on my sofa, laptop in my lap (that is why they call it a laptop) and reading the BBC News, giving us ‘Covid: Australian states enforce travel bans amid Sydney outbreak’, I am at home, which is fine, no Wife, Girlfriend or hookers here, so the chance of me getting infected is close to zero. When this is in effect, the friends coming to visit you might not be friends, it is that time of year and the situation is not a great one. So when I see “The events of the past few days… are incredibly frustrating and disappointing for people all around the country who had plans in place to get together and move in between states”, I personally go ‘Yea, whatever’, we might not like it, yet most understand the essential part of nipping this in the backside, especially 4 days before we remember a person being born who got nailed to the cross by the Italian government and eating way too much, and all kinds of exotic items (Christmas plum pudding with custard) doing so. Some might end up watching a classical work by Charles Dickens or Frank Capra on the small screen. That is what we have to endure when we optionally eat too much. 

So why do I giggle when I see: “Sydneysiders scrambled to leave the city for other states on Sunday”? You see the Coronavirus was shown to be an issue because people were travelling although they were unknown to already be infected, they felt fine until at least two days later, so this thing will end up all over the place. It is good to see that people tend not to learn. In addition, I learn “Scrutiny has again fallen on the hotel quarantine system – which is believed to be the source of Sydney’s new outbreak, as it was with previous outbreaks in Melbourne and Adelaide”, a sidestep that is optionally a larger issue, as these people came by Bus, train and taxi, how many did they infect? I am merely asking. Yet, it is not all bad news, especially when we consider “Australia so far has recorded 908 deaths and 28,200 cases in the pandemic – a level far lower than seen in many other nation”, although, 3.2% mortality, all whilst France is showing 2.4% mortality, and Germany reportedly has as low as 1.7% mortality (if all the numbers are to be believed), the setting of “a level far lower than seen in many other nation” is still up for debate. But I get it, in a place with 20,000,000 people, less than a thousand jobs and houses became available and that should be seen as a positive thing. And indeed, we are doing marginally better than the United Kingdom who has (apparently) a 3.3% rate of non living, we are alike both island, yet they have 68 million, but we are roughly 3,078% larger, so yes, we are doing better, even if only to hide the bodies in all those stretches of untouched wilderness (See movie Wolf Creek for explanation). It is also nice to learn at the very end “Testing has shown the latest outbreak is likely to have come from the US. However, it remains unknown how the virus was taken into the community”, which is OK, it is optionally not their fault, but in that light and in the light of what is happening, I still have a giggle at “Sydneysiders scrambled to leave the city for other states on Sunday”, I wonder where the next hot points are. That issue was seen 12 hours ago when 9News gave us “‘Complacency is not our friend’: Warning as interstate arrivals found breaching quarantine rules in Queensland”, yes, fear (and optionally stupidity) is the key when we are confronted with ‘breaching quarantine rules’ and I basically wonder if that person gets to court and that his or her defence would become a crying ‘But I was so afraid’ is seen, optionally with a fear of life without his or her teddybear. 

And in all this the added news “Two travellers from New South Wales have breached their home quarantine orders after travelling to Queensland amid tightening border restrictions” I basically am wondering how many people will it take for the next 15 hotspots to become explained by quarantine breaches. This is not merely the end of it, that is seen when we turn to the New York Times (at https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/03/world/covid-19-coronavirus) where we see ‘After a Skirmish Over U.K. Vaccine Approval, Fauci Offers an Olive Branch’, so why id Dr. Fauci having to offer an olive branch? Even when we take notice of “As the U.K. claims bragging rights for the best vaccine regulators (yes, really), U.S. officials beg to differ”, I for one tend to think that Dr Fauci has had to deal with too many idiots in government positions, but that might be just me. It is shown with “British and American officials sparred Thursday over how Britain had beaten the United States to authorising a coronavirus vaccine, a debate touching upon both regulatory standards and politics that has heated up as wealthy countries vie to receive the first shipments of vaccines”, I wonder why properly testing a vaccine has become a pissing contest, my inner self tends to doubt the fast one on being thorough and that is purely from within me. And when we compare all this to new strains, hotspot issues and stupid travellers, in the end, the disease will get to where it needs to go and it wants to go EVERYWHERE.

Did I oversimplify the problem here? 

I did like the response by Dr. Fauci ““We have the gold standard of a regulatory approach with the F.D.A.,” Dr. Fauci said. “The U.K. did not do it as carefully and they got a couple of days ahead.”” This gives light to my pondering, at what moment in time was a race the best way to go about all this? We are globally at 77,236,327, a million more than yesterday, in what setting is a race the solution? I will offer that only in the needy eyes of short sighted politicians is a race a solution. It is not in the eyes of scientists and vaccine creators, there it is finding the best solution and that takes time, especially as we are now seeing version 2.0 of the Covid-19 virus, as such I am willing to bet that this all is far from over, giving in to a key element like fear will not help anyone in anyway anytime soon.

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