What to believe?

That is at times the question, because the media is not the most credible one in this world at present. Yet one story made me pause, stop me in my strides at I saw ‘Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) Stock Is Falling Again: Is Its Huge AI Spending Bill Finally Catching Up With It?’ (At https://stocksdownunder.com/oracle-stock-falling-ai-spending-bill/) The story by Ujjwal Maheshwari is certainly plausible, but is it therefor a true setting? I had my question marks in this. You see, he writes a cool yarn (as expressions go) but I have my doubt for my own reasons. I have a few internal speculative settings and mostly they are there as a protective cocoon for Oracle, it is my seeing towards the innovative stages that is set to Larry Ellison, the head honcho behind all these innovations (although most of that work was done by Oracle engineers) so as I see the key points things start to unravel in my brain. Lets go over them.

Oracle stock fell about 4% to around US$144.82 as a recent rebound faded. OK, I have no issues with that, especially as my economic insights tend to be measured per thimble. 

The worry is Oracle’s enormous spending on AI data centres, which has led to negative cash flow and a credit downgrade. Which is one I agree with, but there is an annotation attached to this. Because as I see it, all AI is fake AI, but data is almost forever and the needs to be stored somewhere as I see it, when all this comes into the realm of real AI (sometimes called True AI) it needs data and as I see it Oracle is the one true power to hold all that and even as it needs rewrites, the ones using Oracle will emerge victorious, all whilst others are set to Azure, AWS or whatever Google has, is set to a bind and there is the null moment. Oracle will adjust and attain a new standard of this data, the others are likely to fail (optionally Google might address them too) all others are bound for a shallow grave and whilst I have faith that the IBM hardware will rise to the occasion, I have no idea how their software setting is going to be, I honestly don’t know that part. So as I see it all, Oracle data centres are likely to float above the other muck and that is where the victorious remain. 

So when we get to Oracle plans to spend up to US$95 billion next year building AI infrastructure. Is a price tag I am unsure hat to make of, that being said as this AI race comes to a heading those with the proper investments are the only one staying afloat and in that what is to be believed to be  at least US$2.1 trillion in global AI investment commitments are projected through 2027, driven heavily by major tech hyperscalers spending massive capital on data centers. Oracle is likely with its part the only one almost certain to stay afloat and a 95 billion next year against a pool of 2,100 billion is a sturdy island in a sea of turmoil and whilst you see one image, I see a data setting that can adjust and adhere to trinary data centres and that is where Oracle remains alone because that setting was rejected by some and when that happens they will falter because they could not adjust to that setting blowing up the data sizes to almost 500% of what will be a trinary data pool, so it can do it at least 5 times faster on data more ergonomically terrific. That is what I presume will happen, so as I like the writings of Ujjwal Maheshwari, I don’t think he is aware on what is coming that way in less than a decade and that will be the benefit of Oracle and whilst they will get the larger deals others will falter. So what happens when that US$2.1trillion is written off as redundant investments? 

Despite the concerns, most analysts remain bullish, with price targets far above the current level. Is one I am keeping my fingers off. It is like watching an analyst relying on the numbers of a phone book because that is what he believes, all whilst the rest has pushed towards the data sets of tomorrow and there is no real way to see this. Because the phone book is what our parents relied on and it works, but the new directory is not on paper and it is based upon a different scale, with a new price target one that is not seen now and not even speculated on now. As I see it, there analysts are not reset to tomorrow data sets and that is where I need to see what happens. But there is in all likelihood the mother of all reset and I have no idea how these analysts will adjust their settings. We will have to see. 

So whilst I accept the setting we are given “Here is what is happening right now. Today’s drop is less about fresh bad news and more about a recent rebound running out of steam. Oracle’s shares had bounced in recent sessions, and today traders are pulling back again, a common pattern when a stock has fallen out of favour.” But the constant is not the favour that falls, out is the certainty of Oracle as a solution, I know that this doesn’t make much sense, but that I how I see it.  Yes, stocks and options fall in and out of favour, but that doesn’t matter to me, because the technical solution is sound and firm and that doesn’t care about favors. It is like asking market researchers validating actual data of population and that is not done. Data is what it is and adjusting that to data now and data tomorrow matters, not what a market researchers expect it to go to. Confused? I guess that this is what is happening and Oracle is seen as the taste that is out of fashion, but that is the trap, the data is optionally the real deal whether it is now, or if it is new adjusted data and Oracle has always been a master in what it is to what it needs to be and I have no idea if others can just to that, I really don’t know. But in that instance I have faith that Oracle will come through. As I see it, Azure and AWS have always been in the mindset of “This is how it needs to be” whilst Oracle “This what data needs to become” optionally Google too (I honestly do not know how flexible they are). One can adjust and others optionally cannot. This is how I see it and that is why I feel that Oracle is the one true dataflexer (a funny reference to what once was). So make of this what you will and of course you could massively disagree, your right but if it is your investment, you lose. That is the big numbers game and investor have given their voice to US$2.1 trillion and at a dollar per voice the adjustment shock will kill plenty of people in that race. 

So it doesn’t matter that I consider all AI to be fake AI, it is still about the attached data and when that is real and stable, things will adjust for the better. And as I see it, you better have a proper adjustable data set. Have a great day today.