Tag Archives: IATA

Etihad to the ready

So here I was (as I am) and I got thrown an interesting article thrown my way from a source e named PYOK, which after some searching was an abbreviation called ‘paddle your own kanoo’ and weirdly enough, I giggled. I had never heard of this source and I do recall that expression from a very long time ago (I think I paddled a kanoo with a guy named David Crockett, a former member of the US Congress) but that was yesterday’s news. What matters is the article he placed. I cannot vouch for the accuracy, but it starts with the headline ‘Etihad Airways Plans to Expand Capacity Above Pre-Iran War Levels Despite Continuing Uncertainty in the Region’, its all signed with his name (Mateusz Maszczynski) and his site is filled with airline crew and airport articles, so I personally believe that this man is all on the up and up. 

The article makes sense, there is no goal in planning for long term uncertainty and planning for a larger presence makes perfect sense, especially as Iran is pissing of people faster than an army of cockroaches in an apartment building. So as we are given “Etihad Airways plans to increase capacity beyond its pre-Iran War levels within days and is finalizing a massive new order for wide-body aircraft, despite continuing uncertainty in the Middle East, its chief executive, Antonoaldo Neves, has confirmed. The Abu Dhabi-based airline is currently operating up to 78% of its pre-war schedule, but by June 15, Neves claims the carrier will have added around 8% more capacity than it was operating before February 28, when the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran began. Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport escaped relatively unscathed during Iran’s massive bombardment of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones fired towards the UAE throughout March and April, although one civilian tragically died when debris from a low-altitude drone interception fell on the outskirts of the airport.” I tend to agree with this setting, at some point the hostilities are gone and those who hesitated will get eaten by worms, so being on top of this seems the way to go. And we are also given “Following years of shrinking back to profitability, Neves was brought in to accelerate the airline’s growth plans, with his ‘Journey 2030’ transformation program marking a “pivotal turning point in Etihad’s journey.” Journey 2030 will see Etihad Airways expand its route network to 125 global destinations and double its fleet size to 160 aircraft. Last May, the airline placed an order for 28 additional wide-body Boeing aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and the yet-to-be-certified Boeing 777X. Speaking on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) annual general meeting in Brazil, Neves struck an optimistic tone despite the continuing security issues impacting travel demand through the Persian Gulf.” The entire setting makes sense, because there are a few other parts (not mentioned here, nor was it needed). You see, the United States paused of its allies to such an extent that the 70 million people they did have (due to Walt Disney World (featuring Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom), Universal Orlando Resort, and SeaWorld) will get left outside looking for other places to go and here Abu Dhabi and Dubai will be the call for many. There is doubt that this will start in 2026 (because of Iran) but there is every indication that 2027 that it could receive the bulk of 20 million Canadians that are now shunning the United States. Then you get the Europeans, Asians and people form the Commonwealth, they have all had it with the United States, its bully tactics and considering major theme parks like Disney World and Universal, quick-service meals run $15-$25, and full-service dining can easily reach $50-$75+ per person. So, consider those expenses from a vendor that doesn’t seemingly even want you there, the choice is easy and the UAE is tactically sound, especially with Yas Island having most options right there, all in walking distance and the fast train will take you to Dubai and its world famous mall in 30 minutes. That is a steal at twice the price. As I see it the United States are done for as a tourist destination until deep into 2031. As I see it, Etihad is getting ready for some major tourist increases and so they should. Taking into account that Abu Dhabi already has most of the attractions in place (Disney is still building) there is little that Orlando can offer that the UAE isn’t, and for the car enthusiasts, Yas Island has a Ferrari world with the world’s fastest roller coaster—Formula Rossa—reaches a staggering top speed of 240 km/h (149.1 mph), this is something Orlando does not have. So if you were a gambling man, put your money on the UAE, if you are not, see what the UAE currently has to offer and see what you could be seeing at a much reduced rate and with the UAE being a zero tax place there might be more than one reason to look towards the UAE as a place of relaxation and as It seems (according to PYOK) Etihad is getting ready for the increased tourist pressure, that being said they have an airport that Zayed International Airport (AUH) has an ability to scale up to 80 million. The facility is built to handle up to 11,000 travelers per hour, which is a lot more than Orlando ever could and with their ‘diminished’ staff, nearly 1,600 Spirit employees in the Orlando area lost their jobs, marking one of the most significant aviation workforce contractions at the airport, as such they are not ready to see any increase of tourists in their area for some time to come. As such banking towards the UAE and Etihad is banking for gold and now PYOK has given me (and others) the confidence that the UAE is not taking chances and they are getting ready for a massive influx of tourists. I reckon that Yas Island will be getting a massive appeal for a lot of people, on a personal note I think ALBAIK needs to expand into the Yas Mall, there are plenty of good places already, but I so want to try their food in the Yas Mall when I get there. As I see it, their new slogan should become “Better than Macka’s, better than Burger kind and cheaper than both”, but that is merely me and I have been wrong on many things, but never about food and I have the (massive) size to match this statement up.

Have a great day today.

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Greed, Consumerism and safety?

There is a dangerous stance, a stance not on the safety of people, but on the revenue that they represent and there is every chance that this level of greed driven consumerism is at the core of a lot worse to come. 

Part 1
Part one is seen in the article (at https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-criticizes-china-canceling-some-flights-over-covid-19-cases-2022-01-12/) called ‘U.S. criticises China over canceled flights’. There we see ““China’s actions are inconsistent with its obligations under the U.S.-China Air Transport Agreement. We are engaging with the (Chinese government) on this and we retain the right to take regulatory measures as appropriate,” a U.S. Transportation Department (USDOT) spokesperson said.” OK, we can accept that, but in that setting can that spokesperson please show us the paragraphs that deal with issues like pandemics? The greed driven will see and focus on ‘obligations’, but what of the safety of the people? The Chinese government is obliged to look after the safety of people, so where is that part? I am not taking a side whether one or the other is right and which party is wrong. Yet when I see “identify a path forward that minimises impact to travellers” I wonder who they are working for. In December, Bloomberg gave us ‘Omicron May Double Risk of Getting Infected on Planes, IATA Says’, I heard from a friend who went on vacation that the return flight was filled with people coughing and yes, two days later he had covid too. When will people learn that IF YOU ARE SICK YOU STAY AT HOME? And more important those who get sick on vacation are all about ‘safely getting home’ dangers be damned. And that is the core problem with air travel. So I cannot fault China for its position, I understand the greed driven side for getting people to travel, yet it seems to me that the greed driven do not care as long as they see the revenue, infections be damned. Those stating that they take all precautions are delusional, there will never be a safe route in this.

Part 2
The second part is given to us by SBS. There we see (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/another-53-people-have-died-from-covid-19-as-nsw-posts-record-92-264-new-cases/4809f03d-d922-4c30-bfe8-6c1251568bfa) that ‘Another 53 people have died from COVID-19 as NSW posts record 92,264 new cases’, the issue is that when we see it next to the UK (120,000 cases) all whilst the population of the UK is 300% larger, we see that things do not add up, in that same setting the US with 829,000 cases are a larger setting. The us has around 500% of the population of the UK, yet they have a lot more infections. Now this is not the proper way to vet numbers, but there should be some linearity and these numbers are all over the place. So in this India with 247,500 cases all whilst they have 4 times the population of the US does not make sense. The numbers do not add up, I get it there could be a dozen elements influencing other facts, but the numbers are wrong, and I personally believe that India has a much larger problem, so when we consider that is it really wrong for China to act the way it does? 

The entire setting of flight have to continue in an era where we live in a pandemic, someone needs to wake up. The entire need to travel all whilst a lot of issues can be resolved virtually gets to be on the centre stage. In addition to that view we see “China has all but shut its borders to travellers, cutting total international flights to just 200 a week, or 2% of pre-pandemic levels”, is it right, it is wrong? It seems to me that it is to stop a wave of infections that have close to free rule in any nation that did not lock its borders. Last November the NY Times reported “At least 13 people who arrived in the Netherlands on two flights from South Africa on Friday were infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, and more cases will most likely be found, Dutch health officials said on Sunday.” We saw South Africa protesting that it was a mild issue, now we have over 3 million new cases EVERY DAY, so how is that mild? How is the drastic shortage of hospital beds a mild consideration?

Is this what happens when greed shakes hands with consumerism? I do not know, but from where I sit, the view regarding the safety of people is close to totally ignored. There is every chance that those who closed their borders stand a much better chance. That is unless you open borders for tennis players who later admit “that he released a statement with new admissions, including the fact that he sat for an interview and maskless photoshoot knowing he had Covid without disclosing his status”, so a person who knew he had covid went knowingly and willingly maskless. And China is the one that is painted as the attacked party? I reckon that our laws and our regulations are blatantly failing in these pandemic stages, I will let you ponder on why that is and before you blame China for anything, wonder why no spokesperson raised issues on pandemic obligations that should be out there. I wonder how consumerism won that side of the battle. And before you think it will be easy peasy, consider what optionally might come AFTER Omicron and when that part is less mild, what will the consequences be? 

I do not know, but more important, the scientists that should know do not know either, it is new turf for them. So when we listen to obligations and consumerism lets also wonder how safe these obligations were in the first place, especially as yesterday gave us an additional 3,201,862 new cases. I will accept that most will be mild, but 1% might not be and that means that globally for 6-8 days 32,018 new beds need to be secured for the yesterdays cases alone. So what about tomorrow and the day after that? How many beds are left then? I do not know, do you?

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the Logistical problem

The BBC alerted the people to an upcoming problem. The title ‘Covid vaccine: 8,000 jumbo jets needed to deliver doses globally, says IATA’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54067499) was used to alert us and it makes sense. Getting the stage of shipping vaccines is a real issue, it is not a small issue getting well over 6,000,000,000 people a dose, even if it is not easy yet. So when I read ““Safely delivering Covid-19 vaccines will be the mission of the century for the global air cargo industry. But it won’t happen without careful advance planning. And the time for that is now,” said IATA’s chief executive Alexandre de Juniac” I get the issue that they are confronted with. It was “Not all planes are suitable for delivering vaccines as they need a typical temperature range of between 2 and 8C for transporting drugs. Some vaccines may require frozen temperatures which would exclude more aircraft” that gave me the idea. I looked up an idea and there it was “To date, more than 2,500 C-130s have been ordered and/or delivered to 63 nations around the world. Seventy countries operate C-130s, which have been produced in more than 70 different variants”, so the Hercules is a military cargo plane and there are 2,500 out there, the benefit is that the Hercules supports the transportation of 10 feet military boxes which also exist in Cooled versions. Aside from that there are a  few other means, so with that, the 8,000 planes required slim down a little. When we consider that 70 countries have an option ready and we know that the larger airlines have transport versions of Boeing planes, we are almost halfway there, the larger issue is the option to have the proper boxes and refrigerated boxes fit, so even if the plane does not refrigerate, the boxes might. So in that setting we see that part of the equation is there. The larger issue is actually not the planes, it is the setting of the amount of vaccines that are required on a global scale. Which gets us to AstraZeneca, who gives us ‘AstraZeneca to supply Europe with up to 400 million doses of Oxford University’s vaccine at no profit’ (at https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-to-supply-europe-with-up-to-400-million-doses-of-oxford-universitys-vaccine-at-no-profit.html), so how much will they charge the 350 remaining Europeans? This is not an attack on them, it is the required question, when the setting is there, when the vaccine is finally done, how many vaccine shots a day will Astra Zeneca be able to manufacture? So as the planes are lining up, consider that it will take roughly 2-3 days for all the vaccines that can be set in one C-130 Hercules, the question becomes are there enough small refrigerated shipping containers? It is a question that the BBC did not ask Alexandre de Juniac and I am not attacking them on it, it looks great to say that 8,000 jumbo’s are needed, but who considered the alternative? The time required to manufacture the vaccines to fill these Jumbo’s? 

And when you consider that 6-8 billion doses are needed, apart from the massive profit (which I am not against), the time required for all this is an actual issue, because anyone thinking that the existence of an vaccine is the end of the matter is wrong, it will merely be the end of the beginning and not realising that is a massive flaw in thinking. No matter how we see it, there is a chance that the vaccine will help most people, just not all of them. “Primary vaccine failure occurs when an organism’s immune system does not produce antibodies when first vaccinated. Vaccines can fail when several series are given and fail to produce an immune response”, we want a vaccine to be a force of good for all, this is not always realistic and the moment we realise that part we get the introduction to the issue at hand: ‘What about the rest?’ Yet that is not an issue we need to worry about for now, the Guardian gives us “Investigators will be examining the details of the illness and the person who contracted it to find out if there is a link. They will also look at the dose of vaccine they received, their state of general health and so on. They will hope this event can be explained and is not a risk to others. If so, the trial will soon resume. Researchers in other vaccine trials – there are nine now in phase 3, which is the last stage – will be looking to ensure they are not seeing a similar issue”, makes perfect sense, and the delay is (as I stated before) optionally short, but we see the media giving us a non-show on the matter of time required to make the vaccines. Again, this is not an attack, yet vaccines are not easily made, one source gave me “Manufacturing vaccines is a complex journey. It takes between 6 to 36 months to produce, package and deliver high quality vaccines to those who need them. It includes testing each batch of vaccine at every step of its journey, and repeat quality control of batches by different authorities around the world”, so even when the formula is ready and approved, there is every chance that the required amount of shipping will not be ready for some time, a stage that will not care how many boeings are required, there is every chance that the Hercules fleet is all that is required to ship whatever is ready, but that realisation will take you a little while and when you are all on par, we realise that soon enough it will be about governments and their needs for their ego and their economy, the setting merely require that stage for people to realise that wars have started over less. A British-Swedish organisation and their largest client (America) demanding 300,000,000 shots on day one, I will let you consider what happens next, it will not be a nice stage.

 

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