Tag Archives: John Hopkins

WYSIWYS

We have a stage where what you see is what you speculate. I agree and I do not deny it, but the numbers (as I have stated over and over again) are wrong. As such, the COVID mess will get a hell of a lot worse this year. We will get governmental people spouting yaba-yaba, yet the stage is there and the damage is soon coming. For this, we merely have to look to the Corona site (at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), this site has been giving us numbers since the beginning, they are not starting. They report on the numbers given to them and that is where the shoes become too tight for dancing. 

You see, to consider my point of view we can use the Netherlands with 17 million people and the numbers reflect that one in 20 wither had or has the coronavirus. Then we go to number one, the United States where 25% of all global cases  had or has that flu. For them it boils down to roughy 7% of the population. Now consider India where only 10 million in 1,300 million, a mere 10% of America. There is no way that this adds up, it is what I call the left view, if you do not mention it, it might go away, well it does not and it will not.

The problem is that India could fester into a real global problem and the news is silent on that. In all this I mention the infected, not the mortality rate, because that will become a rather worse setting and a much more complex one, as such I merely focus on the infected. 

All this is important, it is important because we get dragged into these lockdowns, and I am not against lockdowns when it serves a purpose. But India is a much larger stage. You see, what nations have a restriction with people from India? In addition to that, when we consider the Dutch epidemiologist Frits Roosendaal who gave us that there is a 40% chance on a false negative. (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/28/the-lull-of-writing/), at The Lull of writing.

Now, we do not like the word ‘false’ I get that and a false positive is one thing, but a false negative? The infected can travel and infect others and we are left in the dark.

Most governments are seemingly IGNORING this. I get the setting that they want to check whether the findings are supported or not. They might even be set to oppose it, that is fair if there is a valid reason (the Dutch LUMC is on the same quality as John Hopkins, so good luck with that). The setting is ignoring a dangerous situation making things worse. I did find something (at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242958), there we are given “The collected evidence has several limitations, including risk of bias issues, high heterogeneity, and concerns about its applicability. Nonetheless, our findings reinforce the need for repeated testing in patients with suspicion of SARS-Cov-2 infection given that up to 54% of COVID-19 patients may have an initial false-negative RT-PCR (very low certainty of evidence)”, and 54% amounts to one in two persons, this is bad, this is really really bad and the media and governments seemingly intentionally ignoring these findings is making matters worse. 

Most nations have ignored the stage to shut down all airports, they happily spread the disease from nation to nation and in this India might be ten times worse than the Mary Mallon (Typhoid Mary) ever was, but do not fear, most of us will get to learn that lesson in 2021.  

We do not need a media that hides things from us, we need one that genuinely informs us and this is the second source I found which was less than a month old, when I started seeking the information, I had access to the original report in 10 minutes, so either I am a lot more intelligent than any media person, or someone is telling them to hide facts, and when exactly was that EVER a good idea?

WYSIWYS – What You See Is What You Speculate. I am not saying it is the greatest setting, but I am doing it based on two academic pieces, two sources of scientific origin, can you do better?

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At the end

Yup one full day left in the year, and my mind gets hit with all kinds of thoughts, towards the Sony directed RPG I came up with a different setting of weapons expertise.

You need to have minimum levels, yet the use of it, also over time strengthens the player. Bash weapons are all about strength (Mace, Club), darts and blowpipes are a pure dexterity event, whilst blades require strength and dexterity and also power both, and Bolas are for strength and intelligence, knifes require dexterity and intelligence and the staff is a pure intelligence weapon. This has two events, you can strengthen a property you do not need, but can power up, all whilst the pure of heart will have play-throughs with different weapons, depending on the person they selected to be, so whilst I was thinking that through, we see new articles on the UK and their dire Covid situation, this is actually more important than you think. Even as we have covid more and more here, the setting of the indication is not merely that what we see (at https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-cases/uk-coronavirus-cases-set-new-daily-record-prompting-extreme-concern-idUKKBN2931P5), a setting that gives us ‘UK coronavirus cases set new daily record, prompting ‘extreme concern’’, all whilst the information I gave in ‘The lull of writing’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/12/28/the-lull-of-writing/), a setting where we see presented evidence that the quick test gives a false negative in up to 40% of the time, that is quite the issue and as we see “Britain’s government reported 53,135 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, the highest number since mass testing started in mid-2020 and up sharply from the previous record of 41,385 set on Monday” I am massively surprised that the NOS data as well as the data given by the LUMC, a academic place that equals John Hopkins, and no one is picking it up? How much ignorance is required in these positions? 

I am not asking them to merely accept the outcome, but as far as I can tell there is no debate on the findings at all, which is positively weird, especially as the Covid issue in the UK has filled 414 caskets in the last 28 days alone (some went into a vase), the silence on this is positively deafening.

So we see additional issues at the end of the year and I haven’t even started on the weird Brexit issues I am finding. All stations of discussions, but the news is all about different things and a largely less reliable covid test is not coming up, why not?

So whilst we applaud the setting of “Andrew Hayward, warned that Britain was heading for “catastrophe” over the coming weeks if it did not take tougher action against the more infectious variant of the disease”, the issue might be too late at present, the more transferable version is out and about and even if it is not more deadly does not matter, when the UK has 35,000 additional patients instead of the 15,000 they might have had, the hospitals would not be able to deal with the additional 20,000 so more people will unnecessarily die, it is basic numbers. And that setting is there out in the open, as such I got real angry over the Swiss setting and the spoiled touristic baboons there. 

A station of hurt is coming our way and there is almost no way to avoid that and as the media is not giving the people essential information, the people will continue to be a lot less careful than they should be. A setting that I optionally face in the next week, which has one upside, if it hits me in the most negative way, I can laugh because I decided to ignore a tax bill until next June, one payment I will optionally not live long enough to pay for, joy joy joy!

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Just like in the movies

Steven Soderbergh made an interesting gamble in 2011, he took a collection of all cast stars and wrote about a fictive disease and the issues that the would would have dealing with it. Today less than 10 years later we see ‘death toll jumps to 170 amid evacuation delays for foreign nationals‘, as well as ‘returning Britons could be kept in quarantine for 14 days‘ and many more. This morning I saw a staggering amount of people with face masks. All fearing what could come next. Steven Soderbergh was an optimist. 

Frances Mao (BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51290312) writes “For over a week now, the Australians trapped in Wuhan – many of them children – have been calling on their government to help get them out. But the announcement of a two-week quarantine on Christmas Island have given many pause for thought.” It is a nasty thing, especially for Australians and their view (as well as the UN view) on Christmas Island, a place where you go when you stop believing in any form of Christmas. 

For the UK (the Guardian) we see “Planners earlier looked at holding returnees at a hotel or military base. But, after an emergency Cobra meeting on Wednesday afternoon chaired by the health secretary, Matt Hancock, it is understood that they will be flown into RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire and taken to an NHS facility to be monitored and treated if symptoms develop“, the issue is not who gets treated and who gets flagged, the issue is actually all the people who circumvent the flags and who avoid scruples as they claim that they are not sick. In this case it is a much larger issue, most people become spreaders even before they realise that they are sick and that is a decently rare occurrence in medical matters. The fact that we saw Yesterday ‘The death toll from the virus has risen to 170‘ is only part of the problem. The optional fact that we see less than an hour ago the simplified facts that ‘the number of infections jumped by nearly 30 percent‘ as well as ‘China Now Has More Cases Than It Had of SARS‘ (source: NY Times) implies that it will not merely hit healthy people, it will be the foundation of fear mongering, which the movie Contagion showed was counterproductive.

And my case of ‘the people who circumvent the flags‘ was not academic, Japan reported 30 minutes ago that they had 11 cases, so how long until that one person overlooked has infected their whole neighbourhood? The issue is not fear mongering or academic, there is every chance that this is happening and there will be a larger issue following that. CNN gave a link to the Coronavirus map in China and it shows that it is confirmed in 20 locations ALL OVER China. This implies that there are in addition to this at least 5 more locations unconfirmed and optionally a dozen cases on the run (read: travelling) with no indications where to and how many that they will infect. And even as most will herald the Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering for this map, how many are afraid to be on this map? Because their fear will propel the disease to healthy regions. It is hard to continue because of the fear that I become the fearmonger. I also want to be clear that my response is not as a critique on the China’s National Health Commission or the CCDC. the fact that we were seeing 6,000 cases (infected) on Wednesday and that we see a global number that surpasses 7,800 cases one day later gives rise to the thoughts I am having. Now we need to be certain that we also accept that there will be a percentage which are false positives, those with a normal flu, giving rise to a larger boost to the numbers. Even as I accept that this percentage is not to be speculated upon and that we need to be savvy of all cases, there is still a growing chance that people avoided being flagged and flew just before the curtain thinking that they were clear and that they would deal with their flu over the weekend. That is the stage we need to fear and the escalation of thousands of cases. 

Even now as we are told that Tibet has its first case, how many did this person infect? We see countries and numbers, but the truth is that there are cases in Hong Kong, the United States, Taiwan, Australia, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Vietnam, Nepal, Cambodia, Finland, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates. Each country where one person stated ‘Not me, I merely have a cold‘, that person will infect dozens more each day. That is how a pandemic starts. Let’s be clear, the term pandemic means an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region (including multiple continents). In support we should also see that  a widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. With the Coronavirus, there is still no vaccine, there is no cure and its growth is almost like wildfire because of panicking people getting away from this disease whilst they spread it, most importantly they were carriers even before they were sick, so fear was not the instigator. In all this there is one additional fact that the New York Times gave us “Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam and Japan had patients that had not been to China“, which gives rise to the fact that unflagged people were involved, or even scarier, as this started with animals, we need to consider that the issue is larger than we thought. It needs to be clear that this Coronavirus is NOT new, it was discovered half a century ago but in all these cases, it was animals that infected humans. In several cases we see the fingers pointed at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, yet Science Magazine published on the 26th (Jon Cohen) that ‘Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally‘, there we see “a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis” this comes from a large group of Chinese researchers and here we see “In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace“, and here we see that Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University seems to agree with the assessment, 13 out of 41 is too large a group to ignore. In my personal view it is not impossible that there is a covariant, if we consider that spreading happened before the personal marie celeste’s realised that they were sick, would it be possible that a busdriver was the link that was missing?

And it is here that we see the part where I went for and Science Magazine (at https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally) gives us “the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December“. A silent interference on data. When we realise this we need to consider and agree that this is not fear mongering, it is almost hard chiseled facts that lead us here and as such watching the movie Contagion a little late is not the worst idea to have. 

And it is that same magazine that gives us another part “Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January” a situation that slowly took hold all over the world and this is the stage we now have and whilst officials are all about positive influence and flying home the ‘healthy’ people, they will optionally be the group spreading a much larger foundation of the disease. I say optionally, because there are clear foundations for testing, yet it is Bin Cao of Capital Medical University,a pulmonary specialist, wrote ““Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.”” and there is the killer in all this ‘we still do not know‘ in a stage where we are given ‘a common source—as early as 1 October 2019‘ that is the foundation that eludes many of us and in hindsight when we consider the international infected, how many escaped a flagged view and how many did they infect? That is the question that officials need to have (and they might), yet we do not know and whilst we are all about ‘How can UK citizens leave Wuhan amid the coronavirus outbreak‘ yet the damage is optionally already done.

I do believe that there is no solution in fearing and burning at the stake anyone who has a cold (I have a cold at the present) yet the foundation of fear must be stopped in any way we can. For the simple reason that ‘My anxiety is increasing day by day‘ is not merely a Wuhanian expression, it is soon optionally to be a global one until we can give rise to clarity on where the disease is and until the vaccine is ready, the bulk of all people will be gripped by fear, just like in the movies.

 

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