That is the intro to the question, or perhaps the conundrum given. It comes from the Caspian Post (at https://caspianpost.com/opinion/saudi-arabia-vs-uae-is-riyadh-becoming-russia-s-new-gulf-partner), one I actually hadn’t heard before. Out is one an opinion piece, but the title reads ‘Saudi Arabia vs UAE: Is Riyadh Becoming Russia’s New Gulf Partner?’ It made me think for a short while. You see Saudi Arabia is increasingly intelligent, so I don’t think this is the real reason or the truth. But the setting is given. And with “But the geopolitical landscape has shifted. Sanctions, compliance pressures, and reputational risks have made working with Russian clients in the UAE more complicated. Not because the country has turned hostile, but because it must balance relations with the West. The environment for Russians remains attractive, yet clearly less frictionless than before. This naturally raises the question: if not only the UAE, then where next?” Then there are two settings that I have in the back of my mind. In the first there is Washington, there is an inkling of thinking that they have open the doors to a setting that might lead to destabilization, because with all other issues that America faces, the last thing they want is a more strong, more stable middle east and they might think that this setting loses cohesion when the Russians are given a jolt of ‘entertainment’ the second thing is that I wouldn’t accept that America might stoop that low, they would lose too much, too quick. So I wonder about it. As we are given “Saudi Arabia stands out as the most compelling answer. A large, wealthy, and rapidly reforming state, it is positioning itself as a future global hub. The Russia-Saudi dialogue has long been rooted in oil cooperation and OPEC+, where both sides rely on coordination rather than competition. Political communication between Moscow and Riyadh appears stable and pragmatic. The Saudi ambassador to Russia, Sami bin Mohammed Abdullah Alsadhan, recently said that “personal contacts between the leaders of our states form a solid foundation for cooperation,” and the facts support this. Putin visited Riyadh in 2007, 2019, and 2023, while King Salman made a historic trip to Moscow in 2017. Few foreign capitals have hosted such frequent top-level contact.” As well as “In October 2025, Saudia Airlines launched direct Riyadh-Moscow flights, followed by Flynas opening a Jeddah-Moscow route in December. Daily flights are expected in 2026, along with new routes from St. Petersburg and Sochi. The real turning point is the introduction of mutual visa-free travel for 90 days starting January 2026 – a clear signal encouraging tourism, business visits, and economic exchange. Riyadh expects over 200,000 Saudi tourists in Russia next year, with plans to reach 2 million annually by 2030. In 2024, the number of Saudi visitors to Russia already increased fivefold. Russian interest in the Kingdom is also growing.” But why? There are a few ideas and none are really that good. In the first there is the need for a new tourist destination, that much is clear. Russians are shunned almost everywhere in the EU, Commonwealth and America, as as such the UAE and Saudi Arabia stand out. So the question becomes what business visits? As I see it, Saudi Arabia has clearly defined needs, but does Russia hold the answers? Then there is the data. So what Saudi tourists are looking at Russia? It seems a simple answer, but there is no clear answer. If the answer is work in the Russian Petro Chemical industry, the answer might be fine, but if that links Saudi to the seller of Russian Crude the picture becomes a little distorted. Especially when Saudi Arabia does a reversed Brent Crude Oil loop, as such whilst Brent resells Saudi Oil, Saudi Arabia might be reselling Russian oil to India and a few others. It will bring money to the coffers of Russia whilst greasing the Saudi wheels of business opportunity. Is this correct, is this incorrect? It is pure speculation, but it fits a few patterns and that is what I am going with. America might bristle its nose in the direction of India buying Russian oil, but it will not do so easily as India buys Saudi oil. India is safe, Russia know nothing and Saudi Arabia sees a plain and simple business agreement.
And whilst we ponder on “Russia exported 4.49 million tons of grain to the Kingdom that year; agricultural exports rose 24%. Shipments of beef, poultry, sunflower, and rapeseed oil increased significantly, with poultry exports up 1.8 times in early 2025. Total trade has surpassed $1 billion.
Yet compared to the scale of Saudi-US trade – $25.9 billion in 2024, with plans to reach $600 billion within four years – Russia’s presence remains modest. This does not make cooperation meaningless; rather, it underscores how early Russia is in this market. Potential exists, but realizing it will require a long-term strategy rather than episodic enthusiasm.” Personally I think that this shape has merit, it allows one player to offset its oil, whilst greasing the wheels of another and I think it is highly likely that this is done right under the eyes of America ad the EU, and after we are given ‘US lifts sanctions on Russia’s military suppliers: What’s behind decision’ a week ago where we learned that “The lifting of US sanctions against companies involved in supplying equipment to Russia’s military-industrial complex is most likely an element of limited encouragement”, whilst we also see ““There is a strong component in the negotiations between Kirill Dmitriev (the Kremlin’s special representative – ed.) and Steve Witkoff (the US president’s special envoy) and Jared Kushner (Donald Trump’s son-in-law – ed.) that relates either to the personal interests of these individuals or to their lobbying of certain interests,” the expert added.” These two pieces give a weird symmetry as business in conducted with the ‘blessing’ of America, most likely it comes at a price that is non-disclosed, but it gives Saudi Arabia a larger coin towards the setting, so there will be almost no mention on it in the media. And whilst some ‘defer’ to etiquette like “Saudi Arabia is not the UAE. It is more traditional, more conservative, and strictly follows Islamic norms. Alcohol is entirely prohibited. Dress codes matter. Social etiquette is not decorative – it is structural. Anyone entering this market must adapt or fail.
Business advisers already outline basic rules for Russians planning to work with Saudi partners: an intermediary is not necessary but extremely helpful; conversations traditionally begin with personal small talk before business; clothing should be modest; punctuality is expected even if partners may arrive late; negotiation teams should remain constant because Saudis trust people, not changing faces; women may participate in meetings but usually not as lead negotiators” but in all this there is a hidden opportunity hatch handed to Russia and whilst (as I see it) the west is seemingly ignoring all this, there is a new revenue stream going straight into the coffers of Riyadh, because business is important. Imagery is important and as I understand it, not much else.
So is this simply one good turn deserves antoerqh, or is this the 101 of Islamic business opportunity? I actually don’t know, it might be both or even neither and I ‘coincidentally’ saw a setting that does not exist. I don’t believe it is the latter part, but I am willing to go with that one too.
Have a great Boxing Day today, mine pretty much ended already with less than 6 hours to go. Time for some dinner. I reckon that today it will be rice with tuna, carrots and peas. So enjoy yours and make it a nice day today.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 