What is sent to the US?

What many feared, some justly, some weirdly out of sorts is now happening. Let us be fair, whatever is in the yellow pages, many will know and have and as such there is no ‘US monitoring’ going on. So what is going on? The fact that the story as leaked went from a possible sale of 3 billion, to slightly less and to now 450 million is quite a leap (at http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstra-faces-scrutiny-over-sale-of-sensis-20140112-30ooj.html ). The latest message in the Sydney Morning Herald shows an interesting graph. Even though incomplete (as in costs that are connected), the fact that that something is now getting sold at roughly 30% of the annual earnings is also unsettling. In my personal view, someone is getting pretty rich on this deal!

So, is this about the US? No, good business is good business. If they find the sucker punch solution where they buy something at 30% of revenue and they can hold onto it for 18 months, then the investor would have made a killing. It would be very good business. The question becomes whether we should question the sanity of Telstra. That question remains a question as the costs for Sensis remains unknown, but the fact that someone in the US is willing to dash out half a billion means that the numbers were done and to some it all adds up.

When we see the quote “David Thodey, has shown he wants to offload legacy businesses that face further declines in revenue, and reposition the Telco for the digital world.” we need to wonder what possesses a CEO to ‘reposition‘ the company at minus 1.35 billion dollars revenue a year. Yes, there might be issues at what the value of Sensis is worth in 2 years and that would be a valid question. The issue is that offloading business solutions that have proven themselves for a long time (the Yellow pages) means that the business atmosphere is changing.

So, do we see this as a Telstra stupidity? Not sure, it could be visionary, yet that is only known when the path comes to fruition. The issue that business spectator mentioned that Sensis could be sold for 3 billion before the weekend (at http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/11/telecommunications/telstra-may-sell-sensis-3bn) and one day later it goes for slightly less according to Reuters. The fact that the weekend diminished the sales price by well over 80% gives thought that someone’s breads is getting buttered (a lot). The last part give thought when we see the Reuters article quote “Goldman Sachs is advising Telstra and Gresham is advising the U.S. firm, the newspaper said.

The fact that some of the Gresham people were formerly big wigs at Goldman Sachs makes me wonder even further. Is this just a business venture or is this the start of a few solid golden handshakes (and I mean solid 24K golden handshakes).

The last part of info worries me and I know that I have no right to be worried. It is also true that Goldman Sachs is not into the act of breaking the law (perhaps bending it to the legal maximum yes, which is not a crime).

If this is a valid business deal, then I have no right to be worried (it is not like I work there). The evidence is however a worrying one. Why cut a 1.4 billion revenue business in these harsh economic times? David Thodey might be the visionary Telstra needed or he might not, time will tell!

 

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Independent Crete

Another day, another issue of the Guardian! In it we find the article where we see how certain people lash out, in fear of the future (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/08/greece-begins-eu-presidency-austerity-intolerable). Not to be too smug about it, but even the X-Files movie told us that we could not fight the future.

I keep a slightly more open mind at that point, as most of these actions are based upon what was done in the past. So when we read the quote “Following four years at the sharpest end of Europe’s debt and currency crisis and €250bn in bailout funds, the Greek government declared enough was enough.” we should add that the Greek can have that opinion, yet at that point someone will make the statement “Can we have it back please?

At this point, the Greek government will come up short by a lot!

The second quote is the ‘interesting’ one “a senior policymaker in Brussels said: ‘The worst of the crisis is over. So the pressure to take tough measures is off. We’ve had enough of discipline, enough of sanctions, we’re sufficiently unpopular already. The worst is over, so let’s stop now.’

Let us take a slight look at that statement. Is that policymaker one of those same ‘not too bright’ individuals who stated in the 2005-2010 era that it would be OK with the debt? How did that work out? In my mind, the utter idiocy of several decisions are now in a state where no one wants to admit to anything as leaders and especially middle management is getting cut all over the place.

Before we start ignoring the obvious, take a look at the following (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/09/morrisons-issues-profit-warning-sales-down). This is not just in the UK, this is happening all over the EEC. People have run out of money. Whatever they have they spend on getting debts down and making sure bills are getting paid. The worst is NOT over. There is enough evidence on several fronts, in several nations that this will last for at least another 18 months. After that it might (I stated might) improve if the economy gets better (more than 1% improvement would be needed) as per the next 6 months. If not, then the slump we see now will continue at least three months for every month after this point that the economy does not improve strongly, which means that in 4 months’ time, no improvement will mean an additional year of a slumped economy.

That same senior policymaker must feel that his/her job is decently threatened. As you read the last Guardian article, you might realise that these numbers seem to be slightly off. If this is all about the report to the stakeholders, then what are they not ‘telling’ the people?

I get the fact that to look good they need to get creative (without lying) with the presentation towards their stakeholders.

That part is reflected in the quote “The finance director, Laurie McIlwee, who is under pressure from shareholders over his handling of profit forecasts, said: ‘In hindsight we were a little too optimistic at the beginning of December there has been further weakness across the whole of the grocery market which we didn’t anticipate.’

How dim is that? In the UK not unlike the US, one in seven is currently below the poverty line. If we add the UK energy prices, there is enough indication that the UK population in 2014 is hitting its hardest time for almost 15 years. So either Miss McIlwee was not looking in the correct area, or she was gladly ignoring the issue on more than one level. There is not hindsight here. This is a harsh reality, which has been known and will remain for at least another year. So what ludicrous data is this senior policymaker exactly in possession of?

This goes a lot further then the UK. The Netherlands is in a similar dip, Sweden is presently not in a good shape and the least we state about France, Ireland and Italy the better. When it comes to Spain, we are likely to see much more hardship. The unemployment drop in Spain seems interesting, but when we consider that December, with the holidays, usually has many temp workers in action, the misrepresentation of ‘better times’ is utterly unacceptable until the data proves that the drop of these numbers continue as we enter February and March, only then will there be evidence of less depression. I intentionally avoid the word ‘optimism’ here as youth unemployment remains well over 50% in Spain, the highest in Spanish history. When I read a quote like “And now, buy Spanish bonds and stocks, because ‘the recovery’ is here“, I feel a dangerous game coming on. To be frank, I fear that Spain and Greece are in such bad shapes they both will have a hand in dragging down Europe. That point comes from the issue that France and Italy have no option to intervene. The Netherlands and Belgium are in severely weakened positions, which leave the UK and Germany.

Because of earlier, self-imposed austerity Germany was able to keep a strong back (and they had several industrial advantages), yet the UK is not out of the woods, so when I read ‘the worst is over‘ that might have a foundation of correctness (not a truthful one), the issues we face over the next year will make it essential that Austerity continues in several nations. In addition, when you seek for Austerity we see all these US articles on how this is not an option. On which grounds is this not a solution? Let us not forget that it was the US and its bankers that dropped a 10+ trillion dollar junk hike on all of our heads. When exactly did those bankers go to jail? (The hidden answer is never)

So getting back to Greece! The news on September 23rd 2004 by the New York Times states “Greece confessed to having repeatedly misrepresented significant economic data before it joined the European currency union.

In addition the quote “The problem would not be so serious if it had happened only one year” shows that this had been going on for a long time. Consider that this is about billions. Did the Greek not consider the invoice that would follow? So many billions in a nation with a population of only 10 million. The NY Times article implies that the debt hike was well over 30 billion, with the rest of the ‘mis presented’ data like the Goldman Sachs issues gives way to a massive debt that goes beyond 25,000 dollars for every Greek. In addition, it continued to spend will over its means for well over a decade. That is well over a year of income for every Greek, and that only works if that nation has ZERO costs to operate. It is not a realistic picture. This all points towards one and the same conclusion, the Greek population will be under massive pressures for at least another 5 years. After that the pressure will lower, but the Greeks could face another decade of poverty. The reason for this is that as prices all over Europe will go up, the income they have will not suffice and soon thereafter, even those with a job will learn that what they have will diminish further, which is a bleak outlook.

So when we realise all this, why are they still blaming the Germans and Merkel? It was their own government that got them in this situation. In addition, when we read the response by George Soros “Angela Merkel’s policies are giving rise to extremist movements in the rest of Europe.” New issues rise here. Yes, I am NOT a billionaire, but I have issues with the claims of George Soros. I have had several over the years and so far I have little faith that he serves any issue other than what he sees as ‘a priority’. His quote does ring correct but they are not true in my view. It is poverty, frustration and jealousy that give rise to extremism. Germany after the pressure of the Versailles treatment gave rise to the Nazi’s. So in that regard George Soros is correct. The fact that this debt was not from the people themselves is also correct in the case of pre WW2 Germany and Today’s Greece. The ‘not true’ part is that in the time of Nazi Germany the people got pushed into extremism by its own government, today’s extremism is due to inaction by their own governments. There is the real difference. It would be interesting to see the picture where we see mapped where all these governments get all their money from. Who lends to the government? There is the foundation of government inaction. In case of Greece, several parties would have had to intervene a decade ago. This never happened. That inaction is dragging down all of Europe.

The issue that is correct, true and dangerous is the European election. People have had enough and in several nations there could be a European segregation. This means that what comes will worsen it for all parties involved. The far Right like the Dutch PVV, the British UKIP and the French National Front could imply the end of the Euro as it currently is. This threat and the danger that connects it is real. So whatever a senior policymaker claims in regards to the worst is over. That is not even close to true, it is not even likely in the best outcome, which is already extremely unlikely. So what to do?

Here the title comes into play. I have always had a soft spot for Crete. I love that island! In my long life I have had less than half a dozen actual vacations. Crete is the only place I had moments of actual rest and tranquility. If the Greek way of life is to survive, then the best option in my personal view is for Crete to become independent, preferably before Greece drags them down into nothingness.

 

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A healthier population

The Guardian notified me of another issue ‘rising’ in the UK (at http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/08/government-dancing-tune-drinks-industry-doctors). It is a nice article on setting the minimum price of alcohol. Is it a bad idea? Nah, I do not think so, there is ample believe that setting a higher minimum price might (I state might) dissuade a few people from drinking alcohol, but the amount of people that alcohol abuse is impacted will for the most not be hit by such changes.

I found the issue that lobbyists were meeting with politicians a little laughable. Is that not their function? In the end, the fact that these lobbyists had such easy access is noticeable. Is it about the 130 meetings, or perhaps the implied 130 free lunches these politicians might have had?

The one passage that did get my attention was “In an open letter, 21 senior doctors and campaigners, including Prof Sir Ian Gilmore, special adviser on alcohol for the Royal College of Physicians, raised fears that ‘big business is trumping public health concerns in Westminster’.”

This is a matter of concern. The question becomes on what might be a solution that would actually work? I do not pretend to have the answer, or the wisdom to answer the issue as it could be resolved. The Daily Mail (at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-19699/Alcohol-abuse-costing-Britain-6bn-year.html, not the best source of academic like information) stated that it costs the government 6 million pounds (the BBC stated much higher numbers in Feb 2013), as well as a cost to the NHS of 207 million pounds.

Perhaps we should consider another method. Something more like the subtle message we see on cigarette packages in Australia. How about these people get a standard letter as their details are recorded? The letter should go something like this.

Dear drinker,

Thank you for soon drinking yourself to death. Even though you are (for now) still alive, the pressing shortage of houses and jobs will be slowly resolved as you die from alcohol abuse. At present, as the damage is voluntarily self-inflicted, you have no right to any medical support other than the one you can pay for through the use of cash or credit card, which must be paid for before you receive this aid.

Should these events result in your death, then your belongings must be collected from your apartment within 48 hours, or they are regarded as forfeit! We, the government are grateful that you vacated your job and housing for a person who wants to make life better for themselves and those around them.

Kind regards,

Your local politician (insert name here).

That letter might actually have two interesting effects. The first would be that the person scares him/herself into a state of perpetual soberness. The second one is that his/her direct family might also deal with this situation, which could help the drinker get a hold of him/her self.

Why this way?

Consider when we see the damage of alcohol and we keep on having this ‘soft’ approach on a group that will continuously binge drink themselves. The BBC in February 2013 (at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21586566) stated an even grimmer picture, so clearly something is not working. Consider how much a person pays to drink and the additional damage a country receives. Why must this go to the taxpayer?

The current drop in legal aid funds in several nations (most notably in the UK). The drops in assigned budgets which are currently stopping mental health workers to continue do their job. It is also notable that people with a mental health issue (the non-alcoholics) are cut twice. On one side they lose out on legal aid, the other side they get cut on mental health assistance. The third side is added as the NHS has no money left.

I personally do not see the levels of alcohol abuse as a mental health issue. (Alcoholism is without question a mental health issue). The people who drink more because they can’t get laid, they are ignoring their temporary issues or they are just in a party race of who can drink the most are a massive part of the current cost of alcohol abuse as we see it happen. So, if they are left to die, less are there to compete in fast drinking, which solves that part. Less are alive to get noticed, so those alive might get laid (resolving the second issue) and when many people see that an issue gets them killed they work it out themselves which takes care of item three.

Seems like a nice simple package!

The reality is that this issue is not that simple, but the crux is that these money costing issues have to be resolved. The treasury coffers are empty and these transgressors need to be made aware that when you get in a state such as they get in, they might no longer get any support getting over it.

The time of ‘Whatever! Have another drink‘ is gone, not only do we need to be held accountable for our actions, a change is needed on the levels of support that is given to some as they abuse themselves and others. Consider that a refugee cannot get any legal aid when it has to deal with what is now known as a ‘rogue landlord’, then consider that the same landlord drinking his kidney using rogue rent cash into failure gets all the assistance he/she needs to do it again.

We as a population and politicians as a deciding group have been focusing on the wrong sides of the equation. With coffers empty, economy at long time low and groups of people burdening a system that can no longer support it, we must look into new directions.

They might work, they might not, but not changing anything is no solution, that part has clearly been proven.

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The Governors act

In amongst the 82.4 things (roughly) I have to do on a daily basis, the fleeting moments I have to myself are fleeting indeed. Whether I keep myself busy, keep myself occupied or keep myself distracted does not matter. My mind does not stop working. It was during these activities that an article on Steven Seagal crossed my eyesight. The article was part of the ‘problem’. It was a minimal associated press message on how the Actor Steven Seagal is considering to be running for the position of Governor of Arizona (at http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2014/jan/05/steven-seagal-arizona-governor).

A mere 140 word article, surrounded by 8,000 characters of ‘notifications’! Is that all that the Guardian was capable of? The Independent made a much better job of it adding a few things (at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/news/marked-for-governor-steven-seagal-hints-at-arizona-election-bid-9039937.html), my response to that is well done Tim Walker!

So what is the beef I have? Well, many of us, and to some degree me too when I was a lot younger did not take the idea of an actor going into politics very seriously. But is that not at the heart of our own folly? Let’s face it, especially in America; the elected official is a spokesperson for the people who elected him/her.

Even nowadays, many actors become so after getting a University Master’s degree that that tend to include Communication and Media.

Ronald Reagan as the former 40th President of the United Stated will likely remain the most famous of them all. Yet, the other names are not without distinction. Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor of California and one of the more interesting names would be Jesse “The Body” Ventura, who was a professional wrestler, actor and became Governor of Minnesota. The rumour that the bears were so afraid of this governor that they left for the Dakota’s is still unconfirmed. 😉

Finally there is John Lodge who after a decent actor (playing with stars like Shirley Temple and Marlene Dietrich), who would serve in WW2 in the US Navy and become Governor of Connecticut.

There are also several actors who decided on other governmental roles like Alan Autry, Clint Eastwood and Jack Kelly. They became Mayors and several actors went to the House of Representatives.

So many took up arms, did their bit and after making loads of money (in acting) decided to do something for their nation. Is there any worthier cause then to represent the people around you?

So, when that flimsy report of 140 words came on a Guardian page, I thought it was time to take another look at a few things.

First of all, some of the negative responses we see thrown at Steven Seagal are not without ‘reason’. The man has not played the upscale roles Al Pacino played. Is that his fault? When movies go well we all want a piece of the glory, when they are mediocre or bad it is always the fault of the actor, it seems unfair as the movie comes from a ‘vision’ of some director, limited by the funds of the producer. I know that there is more to all this. What is known is the fact that he was the centre part in half a dozen blockbusters that made loads of money. The interesting part is that although these movies were not successful, Seagal made several movies aimed to instil environmental consciousness into the viewers of the big screen.

With numerous acts of activism in protection of environment and animals, it seemed to me that this person deserved more than a mere 140 words. In addition, with what we have seen in the last 20 years, how the quality of all goes up as the spokesperson achieves better goals for them, is it so strange that Actors see this as an option when they leave the tinsel town stage? Let us not forget that the roles these wealthy stars occupy in choices from deputy sheriff to governor go from $48,000 to $125,000 a year (average incomes). For these actors, in many cases it is less than peanuts as they have millions stashed away from their previous careers. Before you think it is easy money, consider that a mid-level banker lacking accountability makes somewhere 200% and 24,000% of the average income of a US governor, depending on which bank that banker ends up with.

The biggest issue I have is that all these papers (LA Times, Washington Post, Guardian and so on) they all just used the Associated press part, with a mere 140 words to mention the name of a possible new governor, all of them ending with the line ‘he wants to increase border security‘.

It was only at www.bizpacreview.com where the following was quoted: “During the interview with ABC15, Seagal said he’s had discussions with Arpaio about a potential run, but does have other priorities to consider. When asked what the country’s number one problem was, Seagal’s response was ‘open borders.’ I think that our biggest problem is open borders,” he said. “I think that across these borders, any kind of terrorism can come, and does come. I think this is a tremendous oversight by the current administration.

Actually, he only has a partial point in my humble opinion. This issue has played for a long time and the non-actions have been visible all the way back to former President Bush. With its 1950 miles it is the most open incursion area for the United States. The rumour on Al Qaeda getting ‘assistance for a fee’ from Mexican drug cartels has been just that, a rumour.

Linked to this is a statement from Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler, who said on C-SPAN’s ‘Washington Journal’ April 17, 2013: “We know al Qaeda has camps over with the drug cartels on the other side of the Mexican border. We know that people are now being trained to come in and act like Hispanic when they’re radical Islamists. We know these things are happening and… it’s just insane not to protect ourselves.

Here is the kicker, actual evidence has not yet be shown, which is also no evidence that it is not true. The issue for the possible future Governor of Arizona is that his/her 370 mile stretch is almost 20% of that entire borderline. Even if that border was strengthened by a wall, it would not stop the other 80% of the border getting any safer. My issue is that Steven talks a good talk, but the US budgets, the way it is in now clearly indicates that there will never ever be enough money to get these borders secure enough. Whatever the solution it is he wants to implement, it will cost, and it will cost a lot. Until economic prosperity gets back into Arizona, his hands will be tied. Let’s not forget that on the number one spot employer in Arizona is Wal-Mart (the same one where they have mastered the art to pay below the poverty line).

So, whoever ends up in the governor’s chair, his or her goose is slightly cooked. There is of course a creative alternative. He/She could bestow most of Pima County (the southern part or Arizona) to the Navajo, with the only duty that they keep their southern border secure. It is not the worst idea to see these terrorists return to the eternal hunting grounds as a slightly more scalped edition? Is it?

So in the end, should this job go to an actor? Whatever he is labelled as, he has proven to be a fighter, a humanitarian and a philanthropist. Here is where the fight gets interesting. He will go up against Jan Brewer. As a Republican she had increased tax earlier stating that she was forced to ask for the increase due to the state’s $4 billion state budget deficit. In addition, she had been rated as one of the worst governors in America. As such Seagal has more than just a fighting chance. If he can do something about the income of the 30,000 at Wal-Mart in his future state, he could be getting a landslide victory.

This gets us to the actual people in power, meaning those behind a governor advising him/her. Here is where it gets interesting. Those people need funding and sponsors, which makes it interesting for big business to get the right person in power. This means that whatever Steven will try to improve, the places like Wal-Mart will have every intention to get the person elected who serve their purpose. You can read more about that part at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/al-norman/walmart-lobbyists_b_3632526.html. One of the quotes that come out strong is “the contributions of the Wal-Mart Stores political action committee to federal candidates and other political committees has grown rapidly during the past decade.

So, when we consider the power Wal-Mart has, we should also wonder who they prefer, Jan Brewer or Steven Seagal. Because behind the power of Wal-Mart hides a fistful of billions, which makes for one mighty punch.

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Academic Discrimination?

The night was still young when my faithful iPad 1 was beeping me about an issue that had hit the Jerusalem Post (at http://www.jpost.com/International/92-universities-reject-academic-boycott-of-Israel-336771). I could not believe my eyes! A bucket of icy cold water could not have woken me any faster. I had to do some digging (not all sources are of the highest quality), so here is the rundown.

The Guardian had this headline “Why a boycott of Israeli academics is fully justified” (at http://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2012/sep/12/boycott-israeli-academics-justified). And they call themselves academics?

Now, as a non-academic act, here is a wiki page (at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_suicide_attacks), showing a few issues with the entire endeavour. In addition, these are just the bombings. The list of Hamas ‘actions’ on other fronts are a lot longer and several governments would be very unwilling to confirm several of those acts on their soil. In addition, since 2010 close to 2500 rocket attacks had been made from Gaza by Hamas against Israel.

So, do these academics have ANY clue what they are doing, supporting or talking about? The fact that well over a 100 universities at this time all slammed the boycott brought by the ASA, might be an indication that the ASA could be in for a massive structural reshuffle. The fact that such an act of utter opposition to academic freedom even made it to a vote is already cause for concern in my view.

A quote from Dartmouth College by Paul Mirengoff stated “The ASA consists of approximately 5,000 members. 1,265 of them voted on the resolution, with 66 percent of them supporting it.

So 66% of the 25% members that voted got this all carried?

The second quote “Among them are Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, New York University, Yale, and Dartmouth College.” (at www.powerlineblog.com) I reckon that under these circumstances, Mr Mirengoff should proudly mention his college next to those Ivy league big boys. Some of the names that Mr Mirengoff did not mention were Stanford, Brown, Duke and Georgetown, but he might not have had those names in any official way at that time. The list (as complete as can be) can be found here http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/12/list-of-universities-rejecting-academic-boycott-of-israel/

It is quite possible that at the time of my writing even more Universities and Colleges joined those ranks.

The issue that is even more paramount is the entire boycotting affair. Yes against Israel, but no opposition to Iranian or Russian Universities? How about Cuban Universities, like the University of Havana?

Now for my own ‘academic’ mistake! Should I have compared Palestinian Academics with Hamas? Is that just not as grievous an error? If we accept Reuters article of last June (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/02/us-palestinians-idUSBRE9510BK20130602) as a given, then there is a distance between some academics and Hamas and its goals, this does not mean that Hamas does not have within its ranks a fair number of distinguished academics (an assumption on my side). Any war has sides and an academic will just like others choose a side. His views and reasoning could be valid, sane and logical. So, when there is an alleged issue in Israeli Universities in regards to Palestinian scholars, then we need to see what actually is happening. The quote “the massive restrictions on academic freedom for Palestinian scholars” is misleading. Is there any restriction against scholars, or are there restrictions on those supporting Hamas? I do not claim to know the answer, or to even have a clue how that equation is in place (if it amounts to some equation that is in place). We do however have decades of acts by Hamas against Israel, most of it nicely mapped. The quote “Hamas and other Palestinian militant organizations contend that they will settle for nothing less than the dissolution of the entire Jewish state.” has reverberated over the media and the internet for almost half a century. It is interesting that the ASA has had little time to illuminate such a level of prosecution against Israel and its Jewish population.

In my view, academics need to remain outside of that entire political debacle for the simple reason that as long as there is one group that remains talking to each other, the option for any peaceful solution will remain a possible reality.

 

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FACT on piracy?

There is a newscast that got to me in the middle of the night (at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25575298).

Now, let me start that I am not in favour of digital piracy in any way. I have had a fortunate live, so for the most, I could go to the cinema and enjoy the big screen. At times I got to buy a DVD/Blu-ray, so I could enjoy the quality of the movie at home.

What gets to me is this quote “A spokesperson for the Federation Against Copyright Theft (Fact) said that piracy puts jobs in the entertainment industry at risk and prevented future investment in entertainment.

This spokesperson needs to take a hard look at himself/herself in the mirror in regards to the ‘BS’ (as I personally see it) that is proclaimed by said spokesperson! Why?

The 25 most profitable movies represented in the US alone $5.2 billion dollars. At the top is Iron Man 3 which did $400 million in the US, but did an awesome $1.2 billion worldwide. So, there is no future danger to investments, there is a truckload of money to be made there and greed is trump. An additional interesting fact is that the second Hobbit movie is on that top 25 too. It made over 200 million in one week, so lighten up FACT!

Perhaps FACT needs to take a new look at the message they are proclaiming. What angers me is that this is pretty much the same BS Sony ‘voiced’ gave when all that music was shared in the early 90’s (when the US had similar poverty numbers) on how much damage they had.

These people do not realise that a large portion of the US and the EEC is in such a recession that the people cannot afford the luxury of going to the cinema (or buying a DVD for that matter). In the US the poverty line now hits 1 for every 7 Americans, so it is time for FACT to wake up! In the UK things are slightly better, but only 1.1% better, making it 1 in 7 as well. So, perhaps FACT would like to take that into consideration before blaming dangers to piracy?

Who downloads movies?

Well, the main group here in my view remains the student population (who can hardly make ends meet as school fees go up and up). In addition I must state that this does not OK the transgression, but consider that these people have little options to see anything. Prices go up, yet students end up with less and less. The second group is the poverty group, who likely have no internet, but rely on a friendly neighbour to burn them a DVD. I am not saying that this is good, legal or acceptable! I am just saying that perhaps setting the right dimension might help ‘comprehension’ for those who cannot afford any of it anyway.

the second quote that the BBC gave “Piracy threatens the livelihoods of over 1.5 million people whose jobs rely on the continued success of films, TV programmes and other forms of entertainment that are created in the UK.” reads a little better, but I fear that this is slightly disjointed. We dealt with films, but we did not deal with TV programs. There we see that the big ‘winner’ is Game of Thrones (HBO) the quote that another site gave me “It also seems that those involved in Game of Thrones are not too worried by the levels of piracy around their show.

This does not make it OK, but consider that these series can only be watched with a subscription and that in the UK and the US 1 in 7 is below the poverty line. The financial situation in many European countries is not that much better, then perhaps those involved should realise that they, for the most are not doing that bad. Forbes showed an additional side to the HBO dilemma (at http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/05/10/international-audiences-have-few-choices-to-legally-watch-hbos-game-of-thrones/). Consider that the three pirated TV series that truly jump out are all HBO series. Can FACT explain how these poverty driven families can shell out $50 a month for cable? And, even those making minimum wage (which is only marginally better than poverty) can often not afford any of the choices FACT would deem acceptable.

So, and your truly (meaning me!), did I ever watch an illegal movie version? (I never downloaded it!) Yes, I did once. It was Star Wars Episode One and I only watched it because the Movie was launched 4 months later in the Dutch cinema then in the US (an unacceptable time-lag for such a movie). I still watched it in the cinema, I bought the DVD and later the Blu-Ray and so they got more than their money’s worth!

So, is there a real issue?

Depends on how you look at it. From my point of view, the bulk of those downloading the movies and/or TV series cannot afford them in any way, which means that there would never have been a sale to begin with. Those who are above that mark are a decreasing population. As TV series and movies are offered via iTunes, consoles and other digital media for just a few dollars, getting the series (or movie) in that way would be preferable to many viewers, especially as those versions tend to be of better quality. The growth in sales as claimed by some (an increase of 40% in digital sales), means that the tide is shifting. The biggest group that remains has no way of buying it ever under the economic pressures they face.

Yes, you might have a case against these people, but consider how movies claim to make so many billions. Do they really want to go on a hunt for those who live below poverty? Has it truly come to this?

How about we use all that effort to get these people a ‘decent’ income?

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the upcoming currency

We have seen many events this last year. For the most, in many nations it had all been about hardship, bills, Economic downfall and more hardship. Even though the UK said the hard times are over, it is clear that many see and feel that the hard times are far from over and even though the economy is slowly returning, that moment of less personal pressure is nowhere near at the moment. The same could be said for the US. They are worse off (source at http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/17/news/economy/poverty-income/ ). This means that in the US, one in 7 is now in poverty. I thought that this was a unique number, but it seems that 1983 and 1993 had similar numbers; I actually had not known that. What makes this worse is that in 1993 the US debt was just over 4 trillion and in 1983 it was a third of that ($1.3T). So when someone tells you that it was like this in the past and it will all be better, then he/she will be lying to you.

Why does it matter?

The issue I have is that the LA Times reported this (at http://www.latimes.com/business/money/#axzz2p7uudgwk) ‘Dow finishes year up 26.5% in record year for stocks

Now, many of you (me included) have made the same mistake, a good Dow does not make for a good economy. If so, then one in seven would not be in poverty and the US would not be down well over 17 trillion dollars. This statement is one that I cannot stand behind, because the evidence is strongly overwhelming. Consider what many might have seen on the news (Sky News, Fox News, CNN, BBC World). It seems that staff at Wal-Mart is not doing too good. (at http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/20/news/la-ol-walmart-thanksgiving-living-wage-poverty-20131120). So we read that “its Canton, Ohio, store decided to organize a Thanksgiving food drive for fellow workers.” It was also nice that a celebrity like Ashton Kutcher is outraged over this. So, we see that Dow is up, because Wal-Mart is paying below the poverty line. How is this any representation of a fair America?

Under these conditions, the only fair thing Americans can do is to avoid Wal-Mart and shop at their local shops. It is quite simple, when Wal-Mart loses a massive size of their $17 billion revenue, when this money goes to local shops, they will be hiring staff. It might be a win/win situation for those currently on poverty. The MSNBC article (at http://www.msnbc.com/the-ed-show/leaked-document-shows-what-walmart-really-pay) shows a grim situation. Is it enough to see it as exploitation at best or slave labour in a slightly more realistic setting?

There is however more. It seems that McDonald’s is on that same horse. (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/10/us-fast-food-protests-wages). Whether this is just a US problem remains to be seen. There are all kinds of jokes one could make on slave labor and an African American president, but you get the idea. There is no way that this does not hit him in any way as this happened on his watch! The question becomes how awake has he been whilst this was happening? When at least 6% of the Dow is created due to slave labour, it seems to me that questions should be asked on all matter of levels (which they are not). It is in that light that I find the Dow results very distasteful and wholly unacceptable.

When places like Coca-Cola pay 9% above the market rate and they are doing fine, why can’t others follow that same example? I must admit that 9% is indeed really good, but it is possible that Coca-Cola has evidence that this yields better and more loyal results. ‘Good for Coke!‘ I say (that slogan is likely to do very well in New York, L.A. and Amsterdam).

So, how is it all related to an upcoming currency? Well, is it that hard to believe that Wall Street will soon introduce the Dow Dollar? I am not talking about the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, no I am talking about an actual physical currency. When (not if) America faces a total collapse, as any bankrupt nation is likely to face, then what will happen to the coinage on a global scale? Do not for one second think that Wall Street is waiting for that to happen, it might be that they have backup plans in place at this very moment. There will be a debate whether that coinage currently has an actual name. If you think that this is not happening, then think again. Do you think that a group of power players controlling Wall Street, who decide the fate of Trillions (of which hundreds of millions are theirs) do not have an alternative in place?

The sad part is that these Trillions are likely gained through tax shelters and tax havens. This is for now all perfectly legal, but when one in seven is in poverty, it shows a massive imbalance between the have’s and the have not’s. In addition, consider that the 442 billionaires the US have, several members are there because of their share of Wal-Mart. In opposition we see the owners of Coca Cola and Mars (the candy) and they made the list whilst paying their staff really well, so apparently slave labour versus a good product shows that a good product gets you there too!

Back to the coinage!

So this new dollar, which by the way is unlikely to be some ‘Bit-coin’!

I have had my issues with this on several levels as I wrote in the Wall Street Journal last July, where I wrote “until we can see some level of genuine foundation the fear remains that bitcoin has a danger to become the new detergent to launder all kinds of currencies. If that does happen, when the bitcoin is regarded by governments as devalued at 94%, what would be left?

That part is supported by an article last month (at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/18/bitcoin-senate-hearings-regulation), the Guardian also published this in addition at http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/10/apple-blocks-bitcoin-payments-on-secure-messaging-app-gliph. So, there is an issue with a virtual currency! In all fairness, when a ‘bank’ changes value of a coin, where $400 in Bit-coin rises to $250,000 to those same coins within a few years, something is definitely wrong. Money doesn’t grow and yes we need money to make money, but it will never grow to this extent. This looks like all the makings of a new marketed pyramid scheme and after these fortunate ones are done, we will see a massive collapse, because it is all virtual currency. Then what? Who will then be held accountable? Currency not supported by any valued mint (like Gold as currency used to be set against) is likely to yield a catastrophic result to the owners.

This brings us back to that Dow Dollar. At present, the US bankruptcy remains a reality and when that happens, where will currency go? Let us not forget that the US debt ceiling becomes a reality again in February 2014. Nothing was ever resolved and the US is still no closer to getting its own house in order. The moment this escalates and fear of the future becomes a reality, stocks will go down quicker than the German Deutschmark in 1923. Can it all be prevented?

First of all, when an economy is getting better, being tax accountable is a first, the fact that through economic and international lawyering this is no longer a case remains to be fixed. There have been too many delays on that path. In my (debatable) solution all members of the Dow 30 will make an annual 1% contribution to the US treasury. If you as a member get this prestige, you get to pay for it! It is a founding principle that actually came from the United States. On the other side, the government with that accepts responsibility to become more than just budget neutral. Overspending should end and the US must not be allowed to spend above the amount of taxation collected. So no 100.01%, when this budget is reached, IT SHUTS DOWN COMPLETELY!

This means also means that politicians would officially be held accountable for their budgets and will serve time in prison when they fail (that should make an immediate rise to able personnel instead of these ‘friend of the senator’ positions). Lastly, that 1% contribution goes towards paying off the deficit. These funds are not allowed in any way to be used towards some payment or budgeting scheme.

You see, when people behind Wal-Mart and McDonalds make so much money that they get to be on the billionaires list, whilst their staff members are in poverty; we need to shake their houses in order. Sending invoices are a first step on that path. If they do not comply, they go to jail and their companies become nationalised. I know, it is extreme, but consider the validity of justice when a billionaire actually goes to jail (something that seems to only happen in Russia), it might make them clean up their act and it also gives rise a first anti-greed wave. This is something that had been long overdue.

So will this so called ‘Dow Dollar’ become reality? Yes! It will happen 0.021 seconds (roughly) after imminent bankruptcy is declared by the US treasurer (which is likely to be done from a plane or an airport location).

Have a nice 2014 and keep an eye on your savings!

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Greed and the movies

As I contemplated the year 2013, several thoughts came to mind. I have spoken about it in several blogs, however, in most cases it was mostly about the banks when I looked at greed. Is that however a limitation?

From my point of view greed has drenched itself into so many parts of our lives that we must wonder if there is any way to avoid getting tainted by it in some form. The thought that hit me was how we are now seeing greed into the cycles of cinematography. This is the one field where greed was least likely to take hold, or so I thought!

Let me illuminate it with two examples.

The first one is the Hunger Games trilogy. Now, in all honesty I had not read the books, so when the Hunger games trailer hit me, I was seeing it with the air of ‘Yea, whatever!‘ I admit a stance I would regret. When the movie was on TV, I ended up being blown away. This as a movie buff should be regarded as somewhat of a loss. Most movie buffs will agree with me that a good movie has to be seen on the big screen. So, seeing it on TV, without ever seeing it on the big screen felt a little diminished. So, when Catching Fire came out, I had to see it on the big screen. I regarded that act as an error of sizeable proportions. The movie was a disappointment to me!

Do not get me wrong, there was nothing wrong with it, but the stars (like Donald Sutherland) seemed to be playing below their expected stardom quality. None of it was their fault. The script was lacking in my view. The movie was not bad, but it was all about ‘the set-up’.

What set-up? You might ask.

Well, as I see it, Catching fire is the introduction towards Mockingjay. After Hunger Games, Catching fire is cleaning the palette and in that final movie it will truly come to blows. This is what I expect. Is that true? I do not know, but what does worry me is that Mockingjay is presently going to be a two part title, which means that the Hunger Game franchise is getting stretched for the better part of a year so that the money people (producers and such) can cash in as much as they can. Again, I state that I never read the books, which might be cause for a valid disagreement by you the reader.

That view does not apply to the Hobbit. You see I have been a Tolkien fan since before I was able to parachute out of a plane (driving cars is so trivial and I was too young for that too). I even have an original 7 book hardcover edition of the Lord of the Rings. So, when that was presented to me in three movies it made perfect sense to me. Unlike some of the die-hard fans, I am pretty happy with the result. The only thing I did miss there was the taking of the Shire in the last movie. For me that made perfect sense. It was the moment that Merry and Pippin realised what those around them had gone through, when they saw the devastation to their own home. But apart from that, I have truly enjoyed that movie. The issue I have is with the Hobbit! Like the Hunger Games, I avoided the first movie in the cinema (which I slightly regret) and I still have not seen the second one. You see, when you stretch a 300-page book (I also have a 261 page edition with a smaller font), into 3 movies, each stretching well over 2 hours, it is time to ask a few questions. If it was in two parts, like Mockingjay seems to be it would have made a little more sense to me, but no, there will be a third movie! Is this greed gone wild?

Now, if the story warrants it and the movies are released within 18-12 weeks, then it might not be a big thing, but having to wait a year between parts is stretching my tolerance for the ‘branding’ too thin for comfort. If the movie is really good, would it matter? Well, there is the kicker of course. Yet, the question becomes whether we should have to wait for a year to get to see a complete story. I am not talking about a story that is part of a whole in several movies like the Millennium story (the girl with the Dragon Tattoo). No, this is specific towards the Hobbit and Mockingjay. Consider that the movie ‘Dances with wolves’ would have been presented in two parts (the 4 hour edition), would it still have been such a success? This is directly linked to the 2 movies I mentioned. Why are we accepting this annual approach to a movie that should be open into almost one timeslot? An example of that is the movie Novecento (1900), which was released in the mid 70’s. The interesting part is that this movie was also in 2 parts as the movie was 5 1/2 hours, but what you might not know is that they opened BOTH parts in the same week. So either you saw two movies in one go (which is not realistic in many minds) or you watched them in two parts either a day or a week apart. That would be fine with me, so why this greed driven stretch?

Well, there is a valid partial defence. The movie we see released nowadays have so many special effects that it take a while to get it all ready for the audience, but in the end, delaying part 1 by a month or two, so that we can enjoy a complete result within a month or two feels preferable to me than being forced to wait a year.

I will actually make a prediction. I reckon that this approach will be the main reason why illegal downloads of movies is likely to increase dramatically over the next year. It seems to me that this current milking approach will cost the movie makers and not just because times had been hard on some.

The revenue numbers are currently not in support of my view. At present 2013 is another lucrative year for the movies, but I am talking about 2014. Will it remain this way? Movie will always be downloaded by some and the illegal movie selling will continue. The question becomes how people will react to the multi-part movies? The only partial evidence I would offer is in the numbers as seen with Breaking Dawn (Twilight Saga). In this set we see New Moon, Eclipse and Breaking Dawn part 2 all around $300 million, whilst Breaking Dawn part 1 is slightly more than 6% lower. Is this enough to be regarded as evidence? The multi-part movies are still too new to be allowed any level of certainty (or reliability). I reckon that 2014 will give us a little more certainty in that regard.

In all honesty, if you had to wait a year to see the complete story, would you go to the cinema to see part one?

 

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Internet Privacy?

There was an interesting article in the Guardian yesterday that caught my attention today. It is an article by Haroon Siddique. It deals with the view voiced by High Court Judge Navi Pillay (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/26/un-navi-pillay-internet-privacy).

I am not opposing her view, yet there are a few sides that the article was not touching on. The first quote is “Pillay has been asked by the UN to prepare a report on protection of the right to privacy” Now, I am not opposing privacy, yet it must be clear that there must be a clear separation between privacy and anonymity.

The enormous growth in trolling, online bullying and identity theft also come with a new set of responsibilities. Even though privacy might be a valid side, the anonymity that people abuse (many millions on a daily basis) must also be dealt with. In addition, there are still issues with the ‘issues’ that had been claimed by Snowden. I see the press advocating his ‘truths’ on several fields, yet the actual evidence is not shown. Let me be clear, there is no issue with the claim of mass surveillance, which has been established via several sources. The issue is that a percentage of his claims do not seem to have been scrutinized to the extent that it should have been. It is my personal view that the Guardian (and others) have been placed several articles, yet beyond “according to the documents leaked by Snowden” there has been no concrete and visible validation of the shown facts.

The next part is the quote “to protest against the routine interception of data by governments around the world” the fact that Facebook and Co are routinely doing the same to sell it on to marketeers is not a worry for anyone. There is actually more to this, today the article shown (at http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/dec/27/snapchat-may-be-exposed-hackers) shows an additional side to the dangers of mass media from social media.

SnapChat has a feature where it will grab all the numbers from your address book, upload them to their server” and these issues are not dealt with? The second part can be a huge issue involving a possible start of identity theft and other forms of abuse, but they all seem to scream for ice cream! Like a horror movie they all focus on the sound, but no one seems to be looking at the actual picture. People are ‘duped’ by the millions to just go with the next hype, but it seems that no one (especially in media and social media oversight) is looking at the quality of the next hype.

It becomes even more disturbing when we see the next part “The group says they approached SnapChat almost four months ago to flag the vulnerability, but never received a response, so they decided to release the full details of their findings on Christmas Day.

So this has been going on for months?

So many people are screaming for ‘privacy’ and the fear that the government can see things. Yet, these same dopey’s (to coin a phrase) are not up in arms about commercial exploitation?
They do not seem to care that the damage from that part will be so much higher. It boils down to the fact that the people are worried about the government paper cut, whilst hype dependent social media tools like SnapChat seem to be dumping their customers on a guillotine, go figure!

The bigger issue is that other ‘hypes’ had been hit as well in the past. So, it seems that when it is free, data protection does not seem to be an issue to many people. Concluding from this there are two sides and it is not about the choice of the individual. On the one side people condone their exploitation, which means they have no need for privacy and on the other side; they seem very concerned with what the government sees. This in my view is not fear of privacy either, it is just imagined fear. In the second degree we see yet another side; there we see employers browsing through all kinds of social media before hiring a person (at http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2013/04/16/how-social-media-can-help-or-hurt-your-job-search/), which means that you could possibly lose your chance on that job depending on what they see.

So what privacy are people actually expecting on the internet?

 

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What Syrian option is there?

It all started with the Tweet from Janet Royall, who is the current UK Labour leader in the House of Lords. The tweet was a link towards this article (at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-room-at-the-inn-britain-says-no-to-syrias-refugees-9025265.html).

I do not agree!

We know that something must be done, but this is not the solution. Which of the 10,000 would the UK help when the numbers of refugees are up there in the 2 million at this point! A solution must be found. Yes, I do agree that it always looks good when politicians are seen with those few people (especially children), when those people are truly happy to get out of harm’s way. It looks at times like the impoverished approach in getting votes (sorry for the cynicism).

The issue is a lot larger and a lot more drastic then many realise. At UNHCR (at http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php) we see that the number is well over 2.2 million, so when we see that the Netherlands was not about accepting refugees, but to send aid in all forms, then they would be right and the UK should do the same thing.

The massive dangers at present are Jordan with 569K refugees and Lebanon with 851K refugees. You see, they are now danger places as resources are dwindling down over there. If something is to be done, then it will be imperative that as soon as possible an additional 20 containers measuring 40′ filled with food and medication goes tho these two places EACH DAY! (Not sure how much is send at this time) In addition, Jordan has always had a water shortage to some degree and another 569 thousand thirsty throats (which is an additional 10% of the population) are not helping any. This for the simple reason because if you think that things are bad now, wait until the local population notices the drop in fresh water. Then gooses will be cooked on several borders. So as the independent is happily voicing Shadow Home secretary Yvette Cooper, they did mention in a blasé one-liner “Ministers say the UK is helping more than one million of the estimated 2.4 million refugees in what the UN views as the biggest emergency in its history.” But it was all about the Labour side (as I read it).

The Conservative’s way is exactly the approach that is needed from several nations and the UK is seeing financial support from the Netherlands. More funds will be needed!

So this is not just about where refugees go, but where can support and aid be given the best? To move these people to Europe is not really a solution (perhaps just a short term one). We heard the US talking tough, but at present they seem to remain in the distance in regards to achieving anything to resolve the situation. It must however be said that they did send aid which seems to be well over $100 million at present, so they are doing their bit in this instance, but as the big power, a solution should have been found ending this bloody civil war a long time ago, which is not the case.

This is not the fault of the US, because Russia is part of this entire caper and as such, Russia has been less than forthcoming in any solution. I do not think any refugees made it to Russia to begin with (not the best climate to go to either).

Even the Israeli’s have been sending aid, support and medical assistance!

No matter how we turn the dice, a choice must be made, one that other nations can consider, or even accept. So what could we do? No matter what solution we choose, it should include moving people away from both Lebanon and Jordan before this all escalates further and we end up with not one, but three countries that will be in dire need of aid and support. My first choice would be Egypt, this because there is so much space beyond Cairo and Alexandria. If these refugees can start building something for themselves in the meantime, like farms and work them, they will have means and perhaps even options for a future. There are even optional possibilities when we see part of the Sinai desert, especially when we consider how Sharm-El-Sheik has grown into a tourist haven, perhaps it can grow into something more?

Perhaps that will not work, it might just be a real bad idea I am having, but in my mind, moving a population of this magnitude will not work, splitting them up over nations might seem like a short term solution, but in the end it will cost and cost and never be the solution it need to be, so finding a middle-eastern solution and making sure that essential resources make it there might work and it would help many more than just a few thousand getting placed in the UK.

What is the best option? Not sure, but the UNHCR currently seems to be at a loss as well and they are supposed to be the experts in this field.

 

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