Tag Archives: commerce

November 27, 2024 · 17:06

Saudi Fun craft

That is on the agenda. Most people are hauling what they can to see their name in COP29, but the others (or those who put their name down already) are trying to be seen as the anti-China voice in the middle east. Because that is what Trump wants, right?

That is the setting of the next wannabe, the next facilitator or the next service provider. Saudi Arabia, Aramco, the UAE and ADNOC’s next need, that is what their limited view states. I cannot agree. That was what the region needed, the next iteration however is as subtle as a maul to a shin.

You see, most are ‘reacting’ to ‘Better offer needed if the US wants to pull Saudi Arabia away from China’ (Amwaj media) or ‘Saudi Arabia seeks mining deals with Chinese, Indian and Canadian firms in industry push’ (AL-monitor). There are more headlines, but the cautious player notices that America (or USA) is in several instances no longer mentioned. That is the actual play. President  elect Trump has a problem. His library is not on the mind of those who need to have it on their minds and that is a plural issue. Microsoft might be ‘offering’ the world to the UAE in AI, but the critics who know a thing or two are skeptical. I cannot tell if there is a silence delay, or an actual disregard in play for the USA. You need to be in the know with China and a certain palace in Riyadh to know the actual setting. And in this Amwaj gives us “if Washington truly wants Riyadh to join the US camp, it should come up with a better offer—instead of a proposition with strings attached.” Funny that, I said something similar on March 11th 2020 in ‘Who is Miss Calculation?’ (At https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/03/11/who-is-miss-calculation/) the words are not the same, but the spirit was. As most would embrace Good business is where you find it, others went for Money talks, bullshit walks. So who was president then?

It does not matter, policies are always on a turntable, but the disc hits that direction 33 times a minute. Faster if you play a CD. No matter whose president when this matter resurfaces. China had a while to set his ducks in a row and he merely needs to watch the fallout whilst he takes shelter regarding the massive boink the Americas show when things turn sour.

America needs a positive hit and that implies being close friends with the Arabian allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. All whilst they know that they need to be friends with China as well. And that is a bitter pill to swallow for America. The tables turn even further as elemental deals (where America would have been the A-team for Arabia) we now see China, India and Canada taking slices of that pie as well. I send stern warnings in 2020 and now we see it happen. So consider that America had the biggest part of that pie until 2015, now we see that America (with $36,000,000,000,000 debt) ends up with a suspected mere 45% of that pie, 55% went into other directions. Add to that the deals Europe and Australia expects to make before Jan 1st 2025 and you see that Saudi Arabia is doing what it needs to do for its country. It might not look nice, but that is the reality of it all and I gave the people heads up for over 4 years. Now it all ‘looks like a crises’ that does not mean it is. It is merely a crises when you were unaware of it all and America was very aware. So seeks the sands with COP29 all whilst there are over 41000 flights each day and many are not needed. So how is that for “biologically formed organic matter”. Yes they will stop some of this all whilst a massive chunk of of these 41000 flight each day could be deleted. So where is COP29 now?

And it gets to be bad, or worse for America. The Tariff deal for Canada is seen as disastrous. But when it can deal with China and Saudi Arabia, what Canada loses on one side, it will gain more on the other side, America painted itself in a corner. And for the sweeter deal? It might be too late for that. China has gained about 15% of the pie that was meant for America, as such the bills will be pushed along forward and there is actual consideration that America would have to lease its land to others to make a shilling and it is not shillings that America needs. It needs a wheelbarrow of these coins. As I see it, America now has less than 4 turns until it can no longer make any moves. It wont be able to afford the entry fee to make a move. As such I personally believe that America has been playing the wrong game. They were playing chess whilst Chinese chess was needed. They never used the board optimal and now that they figured out the game, it is too late for that.

In my own view (optionally a wrong one), the friends of Trump are heading for the hills. They will not get away Scott free, but they will get away. The rest gets saddled with the biggest invoice in human history and they cannot foot the bill. And don’t think that this is not on you all. Your pensions are about to go the way of Lehman Brothers 2003. The loans that are still outgoing will be foreclosed by the banks foreclosing your banks and you end up having nothing to live upon. That too was blatantly obvious before the end of 2023. Now it matters to whom have the flexibility to make moves with whatever capital they have. Don’t rely on the stock markets. Have investments that are mobile, or optionally real estate. I feel certain that it will come to blows in 2025 when America shows that it has issues settling the bills they have. That is when panic goes global. And when you see this unfold those with a decent penny in Aramco and ADNOC will have a return on investment, the rest? Whatever of these rest players will be left alive in Q2 2025, because there is no reality that this will be true.

And when you ask how come? That would be fair and the answer wa staring you in the face. Country 1 gave payment to a debt of country 2 and Country 2 gave payment to a debt of country 1. So what is that called? And this had been going on for decades. I thought the barn was done away with when we learned of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic going south on the debit line. However, the worst was dealt with. This time around it might be worse. The USA would need to call themselves bankrupt and the impact of that is beyond my ability to see, but I am willing to place a bet that China knows exactly what to do. You see, when this comes to pass China and others can vie for the 6,278,000 billion barrels a day it imports. It might be cheaper then getting their own oil, but that is where it is headed. India and China will try to get the largest chunk of it. As such Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia will need new customers and I reckon India and China will be chomping at the bits to get these slices of oil. It will impact global economy to a much larger extent. And that was merely the first part. Consider that Huawei is taking over another slice of technology and you have one country falling short on several fields, merely because they did not think things through. So wanna seen what happens when you owe a bank a massive amount of cash and you can only cover 60% of the monthly payments?

How long until this party is over?

Enjoy the day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 26, 2020 · 01:18

Historic view versus reality

We all seem to have views, it is not wrong, it is not bad it is not evil, it merely is. I saw in 1998-2002 how governments sat on their hands, how lawmakers sat on their hands (and optionally on their mistresses) and they all vocally agreed that hackers were nothing more than a nuisance, and as I see it the traitor Bradley Edward Manning (aka Chelsea Elizabeth Manning) gave up secrets that it was not allowed to reveal and gave it to the world. There is no doubt on guilt, there was no doubt on treason, there merely was the act and that was that, it was the first moment where governments got the first clear hint that hackers were a much larger danger. After that came Julian Assange and Edward Snowden. Julian might be many things, but technically he was not a traitor. Edward Snowden was one, and the law again disregarded the steps that were taken, he went intentionally to a place where he might get the most value out of his deeds, Russia picked him up, just to piss of the US, which they were speculatively allowed to do, yet the stage is rather large, more hackers, all under the guise that the law saw them as a mere nuisance, we all got introduced to ransomware, now we see governments hacked through a sunny breeze (Solarwinds), and the voyage does not end. Now we see less than a day ago ‘Hackers threaten to leak plastic surgery pictures’, as well as ‘National Security Agency warns hackers are forging cloud authentication information’, now I do not care for the plastic surgery part, but it is another case where personal and person inclined data is no longer free, the two elements also give a rather large stage for us to place a new premise. One could now argue that hackers are the clear and present danger to personal and corporate needs and as such they can be hunted down and put t death. So from nuisance to global danger, as such when all these mommies cry that their little boys did not know what they were doing, I have no issues putting a HK model 23 to their foreheads and executing them (optionally with silencer as to not scare the neighbours). 

I think it is time for lawmakers and government administrative types to wake up and smell the situation, and in this, perhaps some remember the words of Martin C. Libicki in Newsweek (2015) where he pushed the view ‘Cyberattacks Are a Nuisance, Not Terrorism’, well that is not really true, is it? When we see the definition of terrorism we see “The unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims”, there we see two parts up for debate, the fist is that ‘mental violence’ is still violence and the setting of intimidation is already achieved, the stage we still need to address ‘the pursuit of political aims’, not all terrorism is set to political aims, unless if you call self-enrichment the pursuit of political aims. 

And with ‘National Security Agency warns hackers are forging cloud authentication information’ we see an initial stage where commerce will come to a screeching halt. My IP does not cover for that, darn. But there is the old way (1981-1991), just kill them, be done with it. 

Now some (especially in law) will state that I am overreacting, yet am I? It is the lawmakers that could optionally be seen as cowards, hiding behind their golden calf called jurpisprudence. The law, for the most does a good job, it is not perfect, so be it, but for the most, it is OK. This covers the never trespassers and the limited trespassers, they make up for 75% of all people, then there are the criminals, 24.99%, the law takes care of them, they are repeat offenders, career criminals and as such the law was designed to deal with them, then there is the remaining 0.01%, these criminals are in it for the kill, to create a maximum amount of cadavers physically, mentally and financially, to make life for nearly all impossible, and that golden calf, the law cannot deal with them and we accept that, so we remove them in other ways. We hunt them down and put them to death, and when it is some 16 year old claiming he didn’t know what he was doing, we know, he did it to seem cool, he was willing to make all others suffer, just to look cool, to get the tits, to rub the vagina, his friends never could, as such there is a 9mm solution that solves it, if only his parents had raised him right. 

You think I am kidding?
You forget the poverty line is shifting massively because of COVID-19 and soon the insurances will not cover the impact, the media will merely snigger and cash in on all those clicks they got from the $x donation to an unnamed source, and it is now time to make the long overdue change, before governments are pushed to take away more and more of our freedoms, which will push us into the dark-web, a situation these criminals would love. And it is close to 15 years too late, but in this case it is better to be late to the party than not get there at all. 

Am I overreacting?
That would remain a fair question, I do not believe so as this step is well over a decade overdue, it is not something that was pushed to the top in the last few days, and it is partially due to governments and lawmakers not acting when they could have and especially when they should have, now the dike is levied and people are soon to be drowning and something must be done. From my point of view, to hit terrorists, you hit them harder, so the more extreme you hit these hackers, the clearer the message becomes. And a clear message is years overdue.

In this there is a two step setting, there are the “cool wannabe’s” who are mot likely teenagers, some of them are easy to find and after the first examples a lot of them will hide like cockroaches, but the second tier, the one the media and governments intentionally ignore are those in organised crime, they will be the real challenge and as most governments have nothing on stopping them, at best they can limit the damage, which is basically no solution, that gap will take time, but with ‘hackers are forging cloud authentication information’ less than a week old, there is now a chance that the NSA and other intelligence networks will realise that compromised clouds will have global commercial implications, as such governments must now act, the moment any cloud is openly seen compromised, it will be too late for well over a decade. It becomes a clearer situation  when you consider that global e-commerce was set to ‘Global e-Commerce hits $25.6 trillion’, by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), s how much losses must global commerce endure before we act? Oh and if you think that this is the end? How much more powerful will organised crime become if they only get their fingers on 0.1% ($25,600,000,000)? It will become a sliding scale that goes from bad to worse, and governments knew that, they knew for well over a decade, but their delusions saw other non-solution, like perhaps, it will go away on its own, so tell me when was that ever a solution?

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Military

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,