It was a setting that has been 1380 days in the making. Perhaps some will remember the publishing stunts by the Russians on how it would be over in 48 hours, now 1380 days later the Russians have suffered dramatic losses.
1,177,370 soldiers and 1140 in the last 24 hours. This reflect upon something else. You see, by some standards (not mine, I lack an economic degree), “The economy of Russia is a high-income, industrialized, mixed and market-oriented emerging economy. It has the ninth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth-largest economy by GDP. Due to a volatile currency exchange rate” that view seems reflective, you see ‘an industrialized, mixed and market-oriented emerging economy’ seems no longer applicable. That market economy requires bodies, targets for industry and targets for Market orientation. These bodies are now cold, dead and going into the ground. Its population is said to be 143,600,000, but over a million are less than able to perform. That implies that the target is now medicine, and not abundantly stated industry material. And at this time, the Ukraine is making short work of the oil pipelines, so the money isn’t rolling in either, or a lot less than expected. And a day ago we were notified that ‘Russia turns to gold reserves as sanctions squeeze deepens’, so as President Putin states only thee hours ago ‘Putin says Russia ready to take Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region ‘by force’’ (source: Al Jazeera) and we are given that they lost at present 11396 tanks, 23685 armored combat vehicles and 34809 artillery systems (including the 29 they lost in the last 24 hours) I have no idea what he is talking about because his defense forces are in shambles. So how many of air defense systems does he have left? He lost 1253 of them as well as 430 airplanes and 347 helicopters. What will he do, send more boys to the front to dies as well, or perhaps he will depend on North Korean soldiers? They did such an awesome job the first time around. Perhaps mercenaries? Oh no, the Wagner Group as a fully independent organization is no longer active; it has been largely dismantled by the Russian government as said by some sources. Well there are all the prisoners that he can use, but that is a two edged blade.
So how does he think that he can get Donbas as Russian territory? And even if he gets it, it will be for hours at most, he really made an error sizing the Ukrainians up and at present it is getting more and more assistance from NATO. Some sources say that Moscow “may sell up to $30bn (230 tonnes) in gold during 2025, with a further $15bn (115 tonnes) possible in 2026.”And at present that is the bare minimum, as Russian oil is not flowing in any direction (as far as I know) there will be more losses and that makes the Ruble nearly as valuable as the Rupee, its value around $0.11 cents and when that gold is gone, the Ruble will be worth even less. That reminds me of the Weimar setting of 1923, in that setting one dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 marks
Is Russia going that same way? It might be a novel idea for Brazil, India, China and South Africa to drop Russia from the BRICS pack (making it BICS, a nicely written setting) As the Russian gold reserves and its currency goes, so does the limited alliance that it is building with these nations and in that setting they cannot use a weakling like Russia in their midst. You want to debate this? Russia has been unable to defeat the 20th largest army in the world. Its ICBM’s are exploding seconds after liftoff (2 at present) what else isn’t working in Russia? It tanks are scrap metal in the Ukraine, it is stated that Russia has 4,300 total military aircraft and the Ukraine made rubble out of 777 of them, implying that Russia is down 20% on its flight power, against America I might have accepted that, but against Ukraine? And now in their weakened state it is poking NATO members through hybrid warfare against the NATO member states, which includes sabotage, assassination plots, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and disinformation aimed at destabilizing the alliance and disrupting aid to Ukraine. And the Hybrid settings are getting more and more exposure, as such the friends it has will turn away from Russia the instance their ‘cushy’ lives are in danger.
As such there is much to come and when NATO wakes up, I sincerely think that the days of the Kremlin are numbered. Now that Russia is so weakened, yes it cannot fight on two fronts and with Germany and Poland and under those conditions, St Petersburg will be lost nearly instantly, and that puts both NATO and the Ukraine in a direct line towards Moscow. A story President Putin will not be able to tell the Russian population and that sets a new premise in Russia, the losing story.
So how will the world see this? Will we see posturing by President Trump? Will we accept that the Ukraine and NATO were adamant in solving the Russian problem, because that is how I see it evolve. A simple setting where the bear loses it nearly all and this was a story that was 1380 days in the making. Have a great day.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 