This is what happens, I was rereading my last article (read: blog) and I noticed a few things. I stand by my word, but it could have been said more clearly and as I saw another piece of evidence, I thought it was important to add this to the ‘current’ (as in previous) article. I like clarity although plenty of people have an issue with the ways I write and it should be said that I don’t write for the masses. It just isn’t me and I am not here to win hearts, I leave that to the George Clooneys out there.
There is still a abundance of speculation, although I have been in IT for over half a century, as such I can rely on presumption. And as the events are coming to pass, we are seeing elements. I personally think the Microsoft is not in a good place, although that part is speculative. You see no matter what OpenAI does, it will fail and it is running out of time. No, this setting comes before that. The EU is largely rejecting Microsoft and what they bring. In Germany at present 30,000 employees are switching from Microsoft to solutions like LibreOffice and Open Xchange. Denmark is switching more profound to similar solutions and France is shifting 500,000 workstations to open source software, equally schools and public sources are making equal changes. Then we get Italy who is switching 150,000 PC’s towards open-source platforms, Austria is already making the shift, at present if armed forces have shifted to open-source. The EU in general: Due to GDPR, European regulators have challenged the use of Microsoft cloud services over data transfers to the US.
So as we see at present what some say will happen when President Trump switches the ‘internet’ to OFF and there is more happening and some presented stages are ahead by a decent amount. This implies that a large amount of up to 450,000,000 accounts are switching (I am assuming here the nearly all Europeans have some sort of Microsoft account). Just as they are deeper into the ‘fake’ AI setting and with the GDPR in place they cannot copy what is not in ‘their’ cloud. It is happening now, so don’t take notice of the doom speakers.
Microsoft is seemingly doubling down on everything to make these copies happen before they are switched off. I don’t think they will make it, or at best a partial download and that will affect those 770 data centres that are being build (I cannot say how many of them are Microsoft), when the EU and its data falls away, I wonder how many of these centres will be canceled (for the weirdest reasons) and we will see a new complication. You see all these firms who ‘abandoned’ over 150,000 employees will suddenly see that this brain-drain will complicate life a lot more than they are happy with.
So as Microsoft is now seeing this noose coming towards them (or they are walking towards their noose). What matters is that the timing was off and the bully tactics of President Trump will show them, that they came short of what they needed. If only they had 6 more months (or if the president would have behaved himself) they might have made it, but now as the world awakens that data is currency and they were about to be robbed of everything they had, the US will now need a different path, because when the data viability would be locked to the EU, and the US and most of the US corporations will be pushed in the open and lacking 450,000,000 data bringers a day, their setting for assumed revenue will go basically into the toilet.
Did you never wonder why the USA needed 770 data centres? And they are unlikely to be all Microsoft data centres, but there will be a fair amount. So what happened to that StarGate project? The information that I saw (source: CNBC) was that “10 data centers were being built in Abilene, Texas, with plans to expand to more states and countries, like the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United Arab Emirates.” There is more to this and in light of these Data centers giving whatever they have to the United States, what are the plans now for the UK and Norway? And there are more questions for the UAE, how clear is it that they are handing over their data to the United States (OK, I apologise, they merely get insight into all data that is managed by an American firm, but does that not amount to the same thing) because Oracle, OpenAI and Microsoft are American firms. So I have no idea how Softbank fits into this as it is Japanese. As such, is Stargate LLC still happening? It is stated to be costing 500 billion? So what happened? All questions, but the doom speakers are out there. Even I am getting messages on LinkedIn on how the data goes dark if President Trump throws the switch. Why was I included? By a person I had never heard before. The US is now nervous because the EU will get others (read: Commonwealth nations) to do the same thing and as I see it, there is well over 80% chance that LibreOffice will be the most popular solution in 2026 and everyone is likely to switch. As such Microsoft just gained a lot of data space, but that might be merely my sense of humor.
As for their “AI” settings, that system that would be doing a lot by “AI” and whilst we were told that “Microsoft is deeply integrating AI across its operations, with CEO Satya Nadella stating that 20%–30% of code in company repositories is generated by AI”, so whilst everyone is rejoicing, we should also consider that we still see (on a daily basis) that email delivery failures (blocked as spam by Outlook/Hotmail) or job application rejections (rejected by automated systems or after interviews) are still the setting of mainstream (not small exceptions) and that is the setting that comes with a dwindling consumer setting and Microsoft is spending a rather large chunk of the $700,000,000,000 that is due in 2026 (not all of it is Microsoft). So what happens when your customers reject you, but the bills are still due? Yup, that noose is coming towards Microsoft nicely. It is apparently a not so nice event, did anyone tell Satya Nadella this? I reckon we will see a much more serious Nadella now that he is going the way of the noose.
And here the news separates a little as I was given a few hours ago (at https://www.cryptopolitan.com/qatar-taps-microsoft-to-build-ai-systems/) that ‘Qatar taps Microsoft to build AI systems to cater to government services’, as such dies Qatar knows what ‘befalls’ their data? The article gives us “The platform is also expected to help the ministry develop and deploy intelligent AI agents, an automated system capable of handling tasks ranging from processing applications to answering queries, without the lengthy development cycles traditionally associated with government IT projects. The factory will be built on Microsoft’s technology infrastructure and will be designed to integrate easily with existing government systems.” Yet as I see it, America has insight into all this because of the CLOUD Act (2018):
This U.S. law allows U.S. law enforcement to compel U.S.-based technology companies to disclose data (emails, files, etc.) stored on their servers, regardless of whether that data is physically located in the United States or overseas. This means if a European or Asian company uses a U.S.-based cloud provider, the U.S. government can legally demand access to that data.
So at what point is the setting “disclose data (emails, files, etc.)” even if there was a legal reason, the term ‘files’ is seemingly not limited, as such it could be anything and that is a hard pill to swallow. Before we know it it will contain any IP stored and I wrote about that risk (not connected to the cloud act) because of the debt the US had at that point (I think it was merely 25 trillion at that point), The danger that a desperate government will go looking through all that IP out there presented a little too much danger for my senses, so I made a lot of it public domain. I might not end up with anything, but no-one else will get those marbles for their own greedy needs. As I see it, the big-Tech doesn’t really like Public Domain, but that might be merely my gut feeling (which has no relation to any academic setting). Does Qatar know what it is in for? Perhaps they are, and a lot of it is wildly ‘rejected’ by influencers who are trying to ingratiate themselves to whomever (I mostly don’t care)
The second bit of news which I saw just an hour ago and was published last year (at https://www.xda-developers.com/libreoffice-is-right-about-microsoft/) gives us ‘LibreOffice is right about Microsoft, and it matters more than you think’ here we see (written by Simon Batt) “I reported on LibreOffice accusing Microsoft’s “artificially complex” Office XML format of being a “lock-in strategy.” The basis of LibreOffice’s argument was that Microsoft’s usage of the XML format deliberately locked people into using Office over open-source software. It also touches upon how Windows 10 is losing support soon, and how people are being corralled into Windows 11 whether they like it or not. However, LibreOffice touches upon an interesting point. While Microsoft is to blame for its practices, the fault also lies with us a little for going along with it. And you know what? They’re totally right.” It is a different setting and it sparked memories I had regarding the war Microsoft had with Netscape in the 90’s.
Now that the world has LibreOffice it has choices, but because of the actions of the White House no one has a clue how the world will be hit and in what way. We can no longer trust someone telling us that it all will be fine, because that setting is as I see it near impossible.
So, what will the rest of the world do? When they realise that the US has access to all data in data storage with American companies? I reckon it will upend the US economy to the largest degree and this is just the beginning. The red lights of rejection are glowing in more and more places and none of them are nice. President Trump made sure of that with his tariff threats and now that the settings are coming home to play, it is even more interesting. What will some do? What will the EU do and I reckon that the Middle East are looking for their own solutions, because they are clued in enough to see what is coming their way. It becomes a setting where no one trusts the United States and what they want requires trust, it is no longer there, so Microsoft is as I see it in a bind and it is largely their own fault. For me it is a little more complex, both Snowflake and Oracle are American companies. What happens there? If the US Administration wants to ‘hijack’ that data, the cloud act of 2018 allows them to do that. In how much danger are we really? I am willing to trust both Snowflake and Oracle. It is the US Administration I have little (read: no) faith in at present and that is not going away any day soon.
As such, I hope I am a little more clear now and I added a few more facts to this, so it is as I personally see it a win-win setting (for me at least). So, have a great day today and I will try to be a little more clear next time around.
Lawrence van Rijn - Law Lord to be 