Monthly Archives: May 2013

May 27, 2013 · 10:46

The Data Intelligence bill

GCHQ_StampBThe events that occurred in Woolwich have sparked more than just one debate. The new debate is involving the additional powers that Home Secretary May wants to hand to the intelligence branch. It involves a data bill that was vetoed by the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg. He stated that it was too much of an invasion of privacy.

Is he correct?

Initially I would side with that part. Yet, you cannot have it both ways. There is a plain and simple need to keep England’s citizens safe from radicalised attacks. The issue of Home grown terrorism had been an issue going back to Sir Jonathan Evans reign of MI-5. He was more than just a little concerned with outside influences on the British way of life. This now falls firmly on the shoulders of both Andrew Parker, who is well aware of the issues as well as the needed response and Sir Iain Robert Lobban of GCHQ. As this is Signal intelligence and as such it falls in his lap as the data would be needed for MI-5, MI-6 and some parts of local law enforcements.

I would think that part of this bill will start with Lord Carlile. His involvement in this goes back to the Terrorism Act of 2000. Current issues are ‘tainted’ by two reports and as such they both are important. First there is the National council of Civil Liberties that drafted a response to the definition of terrorism, which seems to have been the work of Gareth Crossman and Jago Russel. You should take a look at it (source: http://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/pdfs/policy06/response-to-carlile-review-of-terrorism-definition.pdf). It is an interesting work, and important to read is how they see this all. Part of the weakness is the approach on page 3 where they state: “It is vital that the definition of ‘terrorism’ is drawn as tightly as possible“. It is a decent stance to have, yet in the light of fear against home grown/lone wolf terrorism it is actually counterproductive. Terrorism is a shifty acre of quicksand and the strict approach is not only going to fail, it will get the people involved stopping this drowned. Not a good thing me thinks!

I feel uncertain to the point 6 they make on page 5. Yes, they do state that it is outside of the scope of the document, and as such they only raise the comments made that Terrorism should be dealt with under Criminal law. Here is where I might be the dissenting voice. The law should cover all, I do believe in that, however, what part of law? We are dealing with a group that does not seem to be categorised as such. These people are not transgressing in a way where we approach a normal person, or even the average person. Whilst we approach these transgressors in one way or another, even when if possible their defence starts going into the Mental Health act we will see a case where the court is drawn into years of litigation and dealing with a case that as such should be seen as a non-combatant involved in hostile military actions against civilians with no allegiance to any nation and as such it becomes a mess where each case locks down the justice system more and more. Consider the American situation (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance act). This comes from a special report by their Justice department stated in June 2005.

“This allowed the use of FISA information in a criminal case provided that the ‘primary purpose’ of the FISA surveillance or search was to collect foreign intelligence information rather than to conduct a criminal investigation or prosecution. The seminal court decision applying this standard to information collected in intelligence cases was issued in 1980. See United States v. Truong Dinh Hung, 629 F.2d 908 (4th Cir. 1980). In this case, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled the government did not have to obtain a criminal warrant when ‘the object of the search or the surveillance is a foreign power, its agents or collaborators,’ and ‘the surveillance is conducted primarily for foreign intelligence purposes.’ Id. at 915. However, the court ruled that the government’s primary purpose in conducting an intelligence investigation could be called into question when prosecutors had begun to assemble a prosecution and had led or taken on a central role in the investigation.”

This shows that the narrowness of the scope would be the obstacle we should be trying to prevent. The issue is NOT our privacy at that point; it is all about them having access to go after the right people. This requires them to blanket us with collection of data. Even though the data is all collected, it will turn out that 99.9% might never be accessed. Having it is however essential for their success of stopping terrorist attacks. So when the Sky News UK reporter Stephen Douglas mentioned “are they playing politics with fear” then he is in my humble opinion incorrect. This data bill has been needed for a long time. It can even be safely speculated that MI-5 could have intervened with the Kenyan involved in the Woolwich murder at an earlier stage as more flags would have been raised. Their interview with him would have led to other questions, confirmations of danger. That seems to not have happened at this stage.

So from the civil liberty document we move to document cm7058 from June 2007 which holds “The Government Reply to the Report by Lord Carlile of Berriew Q.C. Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation The Definition of Terrorism“. (Source: http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm70/7058/7058.pdf). My issue is with point 5 on page 5. Idiosyncratic terrorism imitators should generally be dealt with under non-terrorism criminal law. This is the point that shows the need of the data bill. Especially when we consider Lone wolf or Home grown terrorists there will be the issue whether the person was a mental health wannabe, or a more intelligent individual being allowed a second go at harming groups of people, after civil rights protected him the first time.

So even if we want to give strength to both Nick Clegg and the National council of Civil Liberties. They are there speaking out to protect your rights. Yet, in that process, they are giving strength and freedom to terrorist attacks like the one in Woolwich (not intentionally). This issue is like a seesaw. These two viewpoints are utterly opposing and as we give power to one, we remove it from the other. The interesting part is that the information we surrender will not harm us unless we support terrorism. Should that not convince you then please remember that you have already given away your privacy to most market research and financial institution data centres. They only want your money, or in a product driven way bank you. The intelligence community wants to keep you safe. In my mind, there is no debate. The data bill is likely to come and should be there, if only to prevent a second Woolwich.

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May 24, 2013 · 22:42

You might soon be sold by the banks!

I have heard often, in many situations the ‘that is not how it works’ was stated. How it was all in my mind. No, this morning issues were not just confirmed, I reckon that things are even worse than you think they are.

You see, for the most I do not trust ‘Financial Institutions’. They came in a time when there was an abundance of all, when people, as they were turned away from banks, they were willing to take a ‘chance’. For one part, this is Capitalism at its best! (Or at least that is how it was in the beginning.) Now they have grown, more margins more abilities and as we saw them grow in many fields they gained perspectives the banks in their conservatives states did not.

So, whenever I can, I stay away from financial institution. The main reason, they do not have the muzzle to keep them in place when needed. You think this is strange? Well, read on and prepare for the rudest awakening in a long time.

In the Netherlands there is a company called Equens. Today they temporary abstained from a plan to sell on their financial information. Equens is a payment provider. It processes pass (credit cards, bank cards and so on) transactions. They do so all over Europe and they are not the smallest. With 15 BILLION transactions they own well over 10% of the market. The plan is indeed decently brilliant, but dangerous as hell. They almost pulled in the banks to take their transaction data to market. It would have been quite the revenue, but it is the most dangerous one you will ever personally experience, and the issue with ‘temporary’ means it remains a danger. The initial report on this matter drew too much criticism, even though RABO and SNS Nationalised were interested, they crawled back when certain legal issues rose. It had been raised by the Dutch consumer society and the Dutch political party Democrats 66. I feel certain that this delay is a temporary one, as the issues involving legalities might be resolved over time. This is exactly the issue with financial institutions. Banks have power, but as such they were limited in freedom of movement (as it should be). Their commercial corporate brother named ‘Financial institution’ does not have these strict limits, which gives many of us the dangers currently at play.

Even so, Equens did make the promise that the sold information could not be tracked to any individual. This is where they are (intentionally) wrong in my mind.

You see, this goes beyond their system (and that is how they ‘focussed’ their view. Let me show you how. You buy an item at your usual store. That store processes your payment. You remain anonymous. Yet, your usual store has given you a discount/loyalty pass. NOW there is a connection between the bank card and your personality. So, as Equens data is sold on and on and on, more information can be added as the shop cash register (and therefor their data) has your bank pass and your personal details in the form of a loyalty card. Two numbers that could be connected with the greatest of ease and these cash registers have been collecting numbers for years and years. Now the link of two numbers separates their claim of anonymity and total financial and personal classification.

So look at those facts, now check your wallet and look at those cards you have. Are any of them for the Cinema? A book store? A game store? A fashion store? Do you get mail to your home from any of them? You’ll likely have at least one, and with every addition, you will get classified more and quicker. Soon you are nothing more than a product number. This is the ultimate marketing move! Availability of products, per person, per location. This is not such a future event; this is about to happen to us all.

I reckon that whatever happens will happen fast, and not just in the EU. If Equens is so willing to make this leap with only +10% market share, then who are the bigger players? This is a mega million market and if the Netherlands with 19 million people are so desired, then what about the UK with 68 million? Consider the meeting Equens had and a document they presented in June 2011 (source: http://www.paymentscouncil.org.uk/files/payments_council/npp2011_-_consultation_docs/22.06.11_equens_se.pdf).

The statements like: “However, the single largest criticism of the NPP is that it lacks an overarching business vision on which to drive a coherent strategy that delivers the various elements of the Plan.”

So, the National Payment Plan was even more in need of a business vision? To consider those consequences we would need to look at Q42 of that document on page 14. Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) is under scrutiny where it was stated that ”The adoption of SEPA standards and formats should be introduced as quickly as possible. Whilst this will impose a cost on Corporate UK, the benefits of these new standards will take some time to reach fruition if standards migration is done on a phased basis.” So what adoptions exactly, and as such, which ones are less documented but not prohibited? From an IT point of view ‘formats’ reads as changes to interact data on more levels more easily. Why? Costs on Corporate UK! When have they EVER been willing to accept costs without tenfold falling back into their laps? It is simple basic capitalism. I have nothing against it, yet the part where most others get sold is not in those papers, yet it is not prohibited either. Welcome to the open world of financial institutions where we are about to become their product. Even though Equens is now visible, I wonder where a big boy like Schlumberger (Axalto) is at this point, who has a sizeable share.

The NOS reported on their website (www.nos.nl) today that these moves are for now of the table. Quoted was “Aanleiding voor dit besluit is de maatschappelijke onrust die is ontstaan.” (translation: ‘reason for this decision is the social unease that rose‘). I think that they have business concerns which will not allow them to endanger their 10% market at present. Yet, if they thought of it, then so did the other players and as such the next step is only a matter of time, and I reckon that we do not have that much time left before we are part of a sold system.

From there our world of what we need will be transformed into our world as THEY see we need. A small change will become a world of difference for us all.

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May 24, 2013 · 10:36

Spin dryers by Microsoft

Some might have heard the news and some might not. Microsoft will be launching their new console by the end of this year. Sony will come with one too, but about that more at a later time.

So, I did watch the presentation, and it is not unlike an American based company to take on so much more than they are likely to chew when they go up against a population of gamers. This has been proven in several occasions and as such this moment was no different.

The new system is called Xbox One (sounds like a Star Wars episode copy).

This system is supposed to be the new revelations that evangelical gamers will pray too. Yet, this is no longer a gaming console. They now call it an all in one entertainment system.

It is a fair step to extend boundaries. Any business minded person will do that whenever possible. Yet, at this time, with the current available information, many wonder why things were not thought through on many levels is slightly baffling.

Even though Microsoft is releasing information on many planes, I would be in remiss if I did not mention that Gamespot (www.gamespot.com) is a massive centre player when it comes to console information, so they are an important source of information for all readers.

There is one part where Microsoft is right, and it is only fair I mention it. Microsoft’s Don Mattrick stated “If you’re backwards compatible, you’re really backwards.” I grant him that one. Even if I was opposed in the past, in combination with statements made from those who made the ‘promise’ at that point (a promise both Microsoft and Sony royally broke). Where we saw the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 to be required to be backwards compatible to PlayStation 2 and Xbox, is just not realistic to expect at this time. So, as such, I will agree on that, even if several gamers might not agree with me.

My first issue is with the hardware that is central to the new Xbox One. If this is supposed to be an all in one entertainment solution, always connected, always cloud ready for downloading of Movies, TV, Games and so on, then whomever lacked the synapses to decide on a 500 Gb drive had clearly been watching a little too many Xbox-Files (like the TV series from the 90’s with Box Mulder and Data Scully). Then 500 Gb would then have been mucho alien. Now, the difference between 500 Gb and 1 Tb is about $20, so when they state it cannot be upgraded, in a time when we are all overloaded with data, we should start asking serious questions. Their statement that we can add a USB3 drive just does not hold water. Consider that they called it an all-in-one entertainment system; consider that a Blue-Ray can contain up to 50 Gb and consider that the operating system and temporary files for this system takes up some space too. Then this system has space for 9 movies in high res (worst case scenario). Even less if we consider the need for our music on MP3, out private photo collection(s) and a few games, then this drive will be choc-a-block stuffed full really quickly.

In opposition, as a start, I might not object to a 500 Gb start. Yet, the non-upgrade limit means that we will need extra external drives; so in addition needing power, needing cables and one young player accidently yanking the wrong cable might make things go wrong fast. This is also the first of many points where your internet data plan will cut in (or cut out might be a better phrase). You see, data plans cost money, and considering the plans some are on now, then the added changes would also mean you might on average pay $30 a month extra to keep being online. So that goes towards $400 in extra costs each year (not including the annual fee for Xbox live). Mind you, this is the INCREASE, not the bare cost. In some cases some would go from $69 to $99 a month. That should go over well with the millions of students all over the globe who are already in dire need just to make ends meet. If you think that this is an exaggeration. Think again. The system that now boasts on 3D gaming possibilities will need data to get this all rolling out. So either you accept time for a dozen DVD’s to install, or you’ll have to get to the cloud. In addition, they might offer the ‘normal’ version on 1-2 DVD’s and the rest needs downloading. This is a bigger deal then you realise. For example, consider the option of starting World of Warcraft on the PC as a new gamer. It is really nice that they offer it for free to new gamers to try. I am honest; it is a really nice gesture. Yet the initial download is 22 Gb. For some that is almost half their monthly download allowance. The second part of their entertainment boast is that they will support 4K. 4K is a resolution for TV meaning 4000 pixels per line. In all fairness there was a mention that this is for photos and movies only, not for games, yet, the 4K trailer of Spiderman (trailer, not movie) was said to need almost 500 Gb. That much for a 3 minute trailer? Is anyone waking up considering the ridiculous limitation of a 500 Gb hard drive?

Realistically, we are not ready for 4K resolution, as this goes beyond the ability of Blu-Ray, which of course makes me wonder why the 4K mention was such an effort? 3D is more and more added to the consumer’s home, yet at this point, we see an unbalanced situation between the offered hypes and the offered hardware. Not a good thing Microsoft!

So let us take a gander in the second division of MS issues (This applies to Sony too by the way). This new-gaming wave seems to cross several borders. What is advertised as new gaming, what others call entertainment, what few see and should see as the end of privacy! Microsoft is now offering a solution that is always on, always connected and remembering and learning from you all the time. Most laws are not ready.

The one thing that we hold dear, that we protect, we seem to give away when playing a game.

The new systems are all about data collecting. They call it ‘trending’, it is in reality a ‘personalised’ form of mass-advertisement. The abundance of hype created whilst stating interaction through the cloud is in fact nothing less than a new form of data collection as Skype, TV, movies and your choice of gaming is at all times stored and saved on the cloud. A system that interacts as per now on multiple levels, unhindered by privacy laws as we surrender to that extra little ‘benefit’ where we forget that others get access too.

Their on-line system is now getting grown from the initial 15000 servers now that Xbox 360 uses, to 300,000 servers from the moment the next Xbox is launched. It is a 2,000% growth in data collection and over 200,000% storage capacity. If foundations of business are set to return-on-investment, then ask yourself why a gaming system requires that level of growth. Intellectual property that is no longer bought, but rented on a temporary basis as the cloud keeps what we buy, yet we will pay more per hour and hand over our identity in the process.

Most laws are not ready, with these new systems starting to get pushed out as per this year. Consider this; the presentation had a quote in relation to the collected information “Game developers can take advantage of our data centres“, is anyone else getting access?

As Justice continues a losing battle against cybercrime, corporate entertainment is about to hand the keys over to a group that can really use all that input. Should you consider that this would not happen, then remember how Sony lost the security of a few million accounts which included credit card information, affecting many in Australia. When this level of collection happens, when consumers connect devices, then consider the added interest cybercrime will get as many will want these amounts of data for several reasons and most laws are not ready.

In less than 6 months we will see a new age where many willingly, unaware of the consequences will give out their details, their personality and their identity to a data cloud where we can all be statistically weighted. The haves and have nots will see their private lives classified into moments of targeting, some of it likely questionable. The laws are not ready, the justice system is not ready and law enforcement is not even close to ready.

So we are faced with the cloud, space and privacy. Consider that the new console was announced to be cheaper than the 360 initially was. Consider that Microsoft is adding hundreds of thousands of servers. Then consider that thy need to make a profit. So how will this happen? More important what extra costs will you the consumer get when their marketing will start making statements like the one we heard when the 360 was about to be launched “Each console has a variety of games. Most games released on the original Xbox are backwards compatible and can be played directly on its successor, Xbox 360” This did not pan out so well. Sony was just as bad, if not worse as millions signed up for the PlayStation 3, selling (or trading in) their PlayStation 2, only to learn that this backward compatibility was not ever working correctly.

Now, as stated earlier, the new consoles will NOT be backward compatible, yet Marketing is making all kinds of statements again. The Telegraph reported in (Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/video-games/Xbox/10075540/Xbox-One-gamer-backlash-over-fee-for-pre-owned-titles.html) that gamers will see a fee coming their way when they are playing pre-owned titles. How fun is that? I admit, I am not yet aware what Sony does, yet this could tip the scales in a major way. I all honesty Microsoft Marketing did state that there will be pre-owned possibilities, yet they have not officially stated how this EXACTLY will play out, so we await clarity by Microsoft (be really really patient)

Personally I am on the fence in this regard. I never liked pre-owned games. And as such it never really hit me. When we look at off line gaming, my thoughts are that this is none of Microsoft’s business. If I give a game I am done with to a niece, a nephew, or even the neighbours so their kids can play a game without having to pay for it, then so what? I do agree with Microsoft that the one who buys the game gets access to on-line gaming. If someone else wants to go on-line, then they should by an access pass for the on-line part. They reserved the gaming server for me the buyer, the next person will need to pay for that service. So off line gaming, patching and so on, they should stay away from charging. That is my personal view.

So here we are, Microsoft marketing spinning their party lines fast enough to get your clothes dry, it does however gives more and more pause to the quality of gaming we have to look forward to. This is how I currently see the gamers market go backwards. A business approach to a consumer world, pushing through all kinds of idea’s the youthful player never signed up for.

So Microsoft calls it an entertainment system. Entertainment? For who?

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May 21, 2013 · 00:54

Values of a debatable side

OK, it is 23:30 at the moment and I am finding out the hard way that life in a hospital as a patient can be different from your daily life in the corporate world with fluent internet and then some, go figure!
So when I initially listened last weekend to a few newscasts in regards to a team of devoted UK MP’s I was not completely on the ball. Yes, they were having a go at the dude from Google, but alas, it was not the price fight we might have seen when some have a go at Lawrence Ellison, and the MP’s go home crying like Charlie Brown after an encounter with Lucy.

So there they are, Amazon, Google and their margins of non-taxation. Those MP’s dressed like bankers and charging like Don Quixote.
It is almost like a new disney ‘fairy-tail’. The pot calling the kettle brokered. Is it not a little on the hypocritical side, that AFTER they bail out RBS, when RBS reports a 2 billion loss, that personal ‘acquaintances’ still go home with a bonus total of almost 400 million? That was not stopped was it?
But Amazon and Google, after they did everything legal (not unlike the bankers of a fat-cat persuasion), and used exactly those correct steps in their order processing that now certain MP’s cry Havoc and slip-up the dog of stores.

This situation does bring back memories of my previous blog where I accuse members of the EU thinking too local in certain cases, this tax front reads the same way. Now, if you think that I will advocate one version of taxation for the EU, then think again. That is just not realistic! That is like putting 22 toddlers in one room, asking them to all select the same piece of chocolate, good luck with that one!
Yet, the idea to streamline certain forms of taxation to ease businesses in an optional situation where web stores will have equal rules, rights and burdens is not that bad. Of course not all EU nations have the same powerful internet, so more issues will arise.

In the end, is it about web stores and taxations? Let’s face it, a political grilling that was senseless and pointless to begin with? And let us not forget, no legal transgressions seem to have been made (if I am incorrect, then this blog WILL be updated). It is also interesting that the chair person of the committee Margaret Hodge, and her family connection to Stemcor seems to be in the same class of fishing pond. How revealing! What was that about a pot and kettle I mentioned earlier? By the way a special thanks to Helia Ibrahimi of the Telegraph who had several of these facts before I did (4G in a hospital is not that realistic, hence my delays).

Yes, it seems that a elevated level of lesser taxation does exist, like an additional income support class for billionaires. Hoo-de-la-lay, as Prince John would say (Copyright: Disney).

So looking at these issues, and these facts, then what is this really about? Will this be the kick-off for a ‘simpler’ tax system? (like billionaires do not get enough deductibles as is). Is this about uniting into one tax system? The latter part would be a nice idea, however with many EU nations in desperate shape to get revenue, not realistic. There is also the slight humorous thought of PM Cameron calling Dublin asking them to do him a favour and not process Google’s non taxable issues there. What are the odds that Irish laughter will reach the shores of Sydney? #JustSaying

Make no mistake, there is more going on here. Do not be fooled to think that this is just visibility. The honourable Margaret Hodge for Barking is one clever cookie. She has been around for a long time and when it comes to the disciples of Machiavelli, she is up there with the league players, which beckons the thought what is this the start of?
The only part that comes to mind is that this is a two edged sword. On one side this is only partially about the tax lessening that Google, Amazon, a few others and the family firm (Stemcor) are enjoying. This might be in one part, a nice little jab to raise the topic of raised taxation during the G8. Consider the issues that the EU needs revenue, now consider that 1% of something remains better then nothing, and that plays nice to the Stemcor business family too, All these EU items play in her/labours favour. If David Cameron does nothing, he will look weak, any act by the PM will economically hit back and gives chance for an overwhelming victory for labour next election. The UKIP issues do not help much either, but at least in that part they are not on the side of labour.

Still, whatever pressure is applied to increase the billionaires tax bill, Westminster must be careful not to be too harsh with their ‘scare’ tactics. Scotland is only 725 km to the North and Stemcor already has an office there.

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May 19, 2013 · 12:02

Parenting by the pool

The first line I heard in a newscast was upsetting to me. They were the words “Why were there no life guards?” I understand the agony they have, I know that people want to blame someone, and from the facts I heard on Sky News it is without question that the hotel had made some whopping mistakes. quite likely emergency services failed too. I state likely, for the very reason that many places outside Western Europe do not even have anything close to emergency services as most of us know it. For example, in Sydney, where ambulance services are outstanding, moving slightly out of the area, one would go from almost immediate services to services that need 20-40 minutes to get to you. That is a simple and uncomfortable reality!

Australia has had its deep tragic moments of pool accidents with a tragic outcome more than once. When a child under 10 goes into the water you as a parent NEVER EVER leave it alone. Stay with your child until the child becomes a teen. Even if there is a life guard, the simple reason is that if another child calls the life guards attention to act, your child becomes a target for imminent danger. The life guard is there to aid YOU! The life guard should be trained in first aid, he should know resuscitation if needed (we always hope that this is never needed).

I deeply feel for that family and their loss, I would not never ever want to wish this on my worst enemy. My strong words are meant for YOU, all readers with a child under 10, ready to go to a warm place, to enjoy the Greek sun, the Spanish waves or the Italian waters. Water is the foe nature gives you. It is an unrelenting brutal mistress that shows no mercy and gives no quart.

Whenever you take the word of any hotel that there are life guards (and they should be there at all times), do not assume that this gives you time to breath. Always keep one eye of your child, two eyes if possible. The water excites them, it brings joy and they will not realise the dangers water brings. The moment they do, it might likely already be too late to do something about it.

Be safe this summer, both you and your children!

 

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May 15, 2013 · 20:52

A noun of non-profit

The EU is getting a few more jabs using jibs, as it sails through the rough weathers of recession. Germany is up, France is down and the UK is about to remove their ship. If the Dutch economy does go up, it will be a plain victory through Nutricia as it shipped several containers of baby milk powder to China. As each container contains 20.000 boxes of Nutrilon (Source: http://www.nos.nl) this could be a first step to stem the tide of some safety for the Chinese baby nutrition. Yes, the article could not leave out the emotional side of crying mothers at the cash register. There is in opposition to the statement in the article little or no guarantee that supermarket hoggers will stop trying to ship baby food to China for now, as it is fast money for those involved and there are additional groups of tourists and foreign students trying to lend a helping hand to their families. This is the one consumer strongly aiding babies and the Dutch economy.

However, they are not there yet. The EU economy is no milk run as it is presently presented. It is not just the economy. If you think that just the local (read national) budgets are a problem, no it gets worse. The EU Budget itself is also coming up short. So that clearly reads that we have nations with a deficit, and now that the group that they belong, which also has a budget is ALSO in deficit. In an interview president of the Euro group Jeroen Dijsselbloem stated on the NOS journal in the Netherlands that the Dutch budget will get hit for up to a little over 500 million Euro (which was stated to be a worst case scenario). In addition the IMF stated the worrying condition of the Netherlands. The Dutch NOS reported the prediction that even though the Dutch economy will shrink another 0.5%, they do predict a growth of 1.1% next year. I personally join the group “Oh ye of little faith!” on that one and if they are able to get the economy up to 0.2% positive in 2014 than they would have achieved quite the small miracle.

The shortage, extra payments and several other ‘bad news’ moments we are likely to hear during 2013 would effectively prevent that 1.1% growth. We will know the actual number next year, but I am putting it out, right here, right now! I must admit that the idea of calling Christine Lagarde next year telling her “told you so!” seems definitely more appealing than a 2 week free for all in the Playboy Mansion (but then, as many have stated before, I was always wired slightly weird).

So, the Dutch government, who was unable to keep their budgets (like several other nations), and after getting a 1 year extension to get their budgets in order, this happens. The Netherlands is however not the only one, and this is not about having a go at the Dutch.

The French are also on the recession list. Or better stated, the French situation might soon become dicey to say the least. Even though their economy is not deep into the dip of bad economy, 0.2% is still an issue, especially as this is a continuing line of sub zero numbers goes on. If we look at the IMF Document called ‘World Economic Outlook‘, April 2013 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/pdf/text.pdf) shows that these numbers who seem to be on par, are not that accurate. If we take the word from Dutch (NOS) and Belgium (VRT) sources we see that the Belgium shortage is now set past the 3% point, which is a big no-no as the EU had set an upper margin of 2.8%. So the account balance which was set for Belgium in the time range from 2012 to 2014 was supposed to be -0.5, -0.1 to 0.2 is now -0.5, -0.3 and ??? So we need to take into account that these were predictions, yet, if the numbers are off either by registration or by prediction (0.2% national difference is a lot of money), then we have another issue. What else is missed?

 

This is exactly why governments should not be allowed to skate to the edge of the ice (read maximum budget shortage) to that extent. All these predictors and good weather ‘reporters’ that the ice is good and the ice looks fine and the ice is thick enough feels to me that it would be part of the flim-flam confusion act. The issue is that even though these statements might all be correct, people forget that all involved parties neglected to check the quality of the ice below the surface. That part is now breaking off, in part due to many others jumping up and down on the ice for an extended period of time to the point that the skater now ends up taking a dive in the water and is starting to drown. There lies the problem! Should you doubt this part, than reflect on these events in regards to the Greece eternal debt.

Consider that the big nations are all in debt, even Germany. Yet Germany took a hard handle on their debts and fought it to lessen the power debt had. The issues that the other large players are stuck in a wrestling embrace with recessions and risk taking banks should not be lost on us. In addition several of them like France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, The Netherlands, Belgium and Slovenia are in a less good shape at present. When we then add Greece and Cyprus, we end up in a garden party with large portions of recession and deficits to go around for all players of the economy game.

I am not telling anything I had not blogged before, yet the issue remains and the game seems to be changing at present. If the UK, by pressure of its population is moved to walk away from the EU then we have a new situation. As long as the UK was part of the EU, they had a stable anchor in play.

Consider a large (really large) barge, that barge was kept in place by 4 strong anchors. UK, France, Germany and Italy. Yes, we to do know that most are in shabby state, yet, overall these nations are large, stable and democratic (that matters). They keep the Barge EU afloat in a stable place on the whimsy stormy sea called economy. If the UK walks away, then we have a new situation. None of the other nations have the size and strength of the anchor required and the EU now becomes a less stable place where the barge shifts. This will have consequences, but at present, the actual damage cannot be easily foreseen. Any claim that there is no consequence and they predict no issues, remember this moment! The Barge (as is), will lose stability and the smaller members thinking they are on a big boat are now thrown left to right then left again as the storm rages on. The smaller nations will get damaged and in addition, the weaker ones (Cyprus and Greece) could still collapse, especially if the UK takes a non EU gander.

There is however an additional look. Some could take at a paper by Edda Zoli called “Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions“. It is an impressive piece of work. and can be found at: “http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1384.pdf“.

The abstract states: “Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the Euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in sovereign spreads affect CDS spreads and bond yields of Italian banks, and are transmitted rapidly to firm lending rates.”

Oops! That is interesting, as this is exactly the fear that drives some of us, especially when we saw Cyprus and recently the worries that the Co-Op Banking group is giving us and not to mention to unresolved issues on Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, SNS Reaal (now nationalised) as well as possible future issues with Banca D’Italia (The Bank of Italy), who currently seems firm and strong, yet if Italy continues to fend of the Austerity measures we will see an increased wave of issues that could have far fetching and long term consequences.

In regards to the UK, when looking at Barclays I found this with the New York Times in March 2013 By Julia Werdigier. “Despite the bank’s weak profit and legal woes, top executives at Barclays have been richly rewarded in the years since the financial crisis.” In addition it states “The payouts come at a difficult time for Barclays. While the stock was awarded before 2012, the compensation may still give additional fodder for critics, who have complained about the industry’s outsize pay packages.” That is not all! On May 7th Reuters reported that the Citigroup has sued Barclays PLC for over 140 million dollars for the 2008 Lehman Brothers party, a party from which some banks are still trying to recover from almost 5 years later. In addition there is the LIBOR rate ‘scheme’, which costed Barclays in the form of a fine exceeding a quarter of a billion pounds. Then we get Citigroup now claiming, wanting desiring and demanding over 140 million. Oh Joy! Yes the Barclay executives (around 430) ended up with a total bonus of over 650 million. So how much money did Barclays make? (Read on to learn)

This example shows exactly my fear. If we see the paper by Adda Zoli, we see part of the issue. If the national debt grows, the risk increases. The UK has a debt in excess of 1 trillion pounds. That is a lot! Banks seem to have less and less, and as such you and me (you know your average dopey lender) has less and less chance of any future in these dark days. Now, to be clear, Barclays was NOT bailed out by the government. They took the high road and decided to cut down on staff by almost 7000 (over a period exceeding one year). Like that is not additional pressure on the government? Yet, all these bonuses, which might have allowed them to hold all their staff for another 4 years for the price of 1 year of executive bonus.

In addition, Zoli’s paper is specific to Italy, yet that same approach might also be used to look at the danger levels in several EU countries. Take these facts and now extrapolate back to the big barge called EU. We can speculate that as people on the boat are thrown overboard. It changes the weight of the vessel as it loses, not gain stability. In addition, some get such high rewards, rewards that are kept to them, not used to maintain the barge! These factors will impede that barge even more and those additional factors are overseen and given to us in the form of ‘bad news’ moments that just pop up. Remember the extra EU payment at the beginning? So a barge, now less stable and a drowning population, all in the Economic Ocean, a restless pond, that is East of the Atlantic and West of the Pacific.

It is important to realise that these Barclays executives have not broken any laws. They were ‘rewarded’, yet Barclays reported a Nett loss of 1 billion for 2012. Seems utterly wrong doesn’t it?

 

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May 11, 2013 · 05:06

Wanna buy some Junk (stocks)?

OK! I admit that I am slightly over the boil at present. Not only have we seen several banks with their ‘why would I care what happens to others’ attitude, now we see the message that Co-op bank has now ‘ascended’ to the status of Junk!

Several things are happening, yet, let us take a few steps back, so you can see why this upsets me so. The year was 2009; Britannia (building society) gets added to the Co-op bank group. This happens around the same time SNS Reaal had a property finance group dwindle its value by a quarter of a billion Euro’s, and that was not a bad day for them. 2010 would then become the massive body blow to the SNS as their property group would increase its 2009 damage by 300%. So, at this point, is there anyone out there not wondering why this continued for 3 years?

Whilst all these property issues were happening all over on the EU side, the Co-op bank thought it was a good idea to continue in their footsteps? Consider the issues, which are NOW stated as issues, must have been known then too.
That in itself means that more than just a small investigation needs to take place. There is every notion that the involved parties require investigation. If we see the waves continuing from 2009 onwards, we see a wave of mergers, left right and centre with a shifting of ownerships and a shifting of losses over and over again. At the middle is a small group of people who seem to ‘make’ their quota and getting a nice 7 figure commission in the process. Poor Prime Minister Cameron was admitting defeat in the papers at that time. Whilst well over seven billion pounds in bonuses were granted to less than 3000 people. So in this age the noble art of thief, burglar, prowler and cut-throat is gone. Instead, some become bankers, you get the idea.

So, we saw the Britannia merger in 2009. The consequence was that Co-op acquired a company (The Britannia) ‘worth’ 35 Billion, yet, when we look at the value of Co-op, those numbers seem to be completely off the wall. Can anyone explain to me how a bank, who in their financial results of 2008, stating an operating result of 85 Million, with 64 Million of profit before taxation sucks up a company with a stated worth of 35 BILLION? No one seems to be asking the questions many should be asking. Now, as stated before, I am no economist and my degrees do not include economy, yet the Co-op/Britannia combination makes as much sense as me walking into IBM HQ, walking up to Ginni Rometty’s office asking her ‘How much for just the company?’, paying her for IBM, take over her office and have it redecorated. And trust me when I say that her weekly allowance is a lot higher than my pre-tax annual income.

So, as this happened, no one seems to be asking the tough questions. In the meantime to the next time-slice, the following issues occur. Our trusty Dutch nationalised SNS, now values at minus 127 Million and its property market is now reported at minus 600 million Euro. At this time, alarms should have been singing, ringing and clinging on many levels, not just at Co-op banking group. For those thinking that they are just separate banks then I would state that this is not entirely accurate. Consider that RBS took part of ABN AMRO (former one of the big four banks of the Netherlands). In the time (pre purchase of Britannia), Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Lloyds TSB and HBOS Plc needed a massive bailout by the UK government. Soon thereafter Co-op suddenly goes fishing for a great White, using nothing more than a Dinghy and a $9 bamboo fishing rod?

In that same period Co-op is involved with the purchase and annexation (to coin a phrase) of Somerfield stores. It was reported to have a net income of just more than 220 million pound a year, yet, it was purchased for a 1.5 billion pound. That part makes decent sense as the net profit is a little over 10% of the purchase value. Yet, in light of Britannia and other events taking place, I add some serious question marks with these methods of vulture growth through acquisitions. I have seen this happen over the decades, and overall it rarely turns out well. This story turns that way as we see the Co-op food group (name after the merge of Somerfield stores) had reported in 2011 (as stated by The Guardian on 25th August 2011) a 21% fall of profits. Suddenly, the 220 million pound profit shrinks and looks less appealing. The Guardian in the same article also reported: “The Company has committed to investing £2bn in the business over three years, with £280m spent in the period.”

So the initial spending outstretches a full year of profits, with investments stretching beyond the 130% of the purchased value of the food stores. With refitted shops, additional refitting and new shops, the total number of shops seem to go beyond 550 stores. This is happening at times when caution is the only way to go forward.

The additional cost of getting these systems to run and align in an infrastructure would require massive amounts of resources. That part became clear if we look at the story from Computer World (http://www.computerworlduk.com/news/applications/17614/updated-co-operative-bank-losing-customers-through-system-problems/). This story is set to the Bank itself, yet the issues of so many sides and so many systems, and therefore the enlarged infrastructure required is not a relief of costs, but a pressure added to it.

Another side of pressure was displayed by Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/02/27/uk-cooperativebank-lloyds-idUKBRE91Q00E20130227). On the 27th of February this year it was stated that Co-op was somewhat short on cash. They were 1 billion short. (oh, let me get my wallet! Duh!) This seems to be the major reason that the addition of 632 branches of the Lloyd’s Banking group could not be purchased.

These facts are more than worrying. The vulture acquisition game is worse than a game of Texas Hold’em Poker. First there is the fact that the board of directors is gambling with other people’s money, the second part is that the circle of damage increases with each acquisition. Consider that the UK only has a 0.3% economic gain at present and that the economy is extremely fragile for now. Allowing these mergers to continue until a solid block of stability is gained should be disallowed on several levels and not just with co-op. Until the economy bounces back and the costs are more stable, this bank should clearly be placed under scrutiny of the most conservative nature.

It is said that the Co-op banking group consists of almost 125.000 employees. Now consider that any hardship hits this group. A thought that is not too unrealistic, especially as they are on shaky grounds for now. I am not just talking about their Moody status, to which their response was on May 11th 2013 as ‘Disappointing’. I am talking about infrastructure issues, weather related issues and any issues that will drag the rest down if additional write downs will be required to the property group from the Britannia acquisition (consider what happened to SNS Reaal in the Netherlands), a mere 5% write down will come down to over 1 Billion, whilst their cash reserves is already 1 Billion too low. So if that result in shut-downs and lay-offs, then a 10% loss of staff is not unrealistic, which means another 12,000 will be out of a job. That must be prevented at all cost. Such damage could push the UK 0.3% increase down to a lower than 0.1% decrease soon thereafter. In addition, those cut downs will hurt their non-aligned infrastructure even more and that might even start a snowball effect on people and infrastructures. I admit that the previous paragraph is all speculations on my side. I have however seen these kinds of reorganisations and crushing results first hand. I had faced them when the economy was good, under current conditions; these events are a nightmare to consider.

Is there any good news here? Well, I feel that I am not that optimistic on the statements they made, yet, overall Co-op could be in a worse place. The only proper solution for them in my mind is to dig in and weather the storm for now. Getting by the next 2 years is more important than allowing one rash acquisition to endanger it all. You will wonder about my evidence?

That is a fair question!

Many businesses are in a bad shape, and there is every chance that some will fail. Now consider the Property acquisition (Britannia). No matter how high their assets are set. Part of their acquired branch was commercial lending and mortgages. Last December Reuters quoted this, a real issue taking in regards the high pressure on lacking stability funds “At this rate it will take another decade to return to normal – and I’m not sure there is much anyone can do about it.”

So increasing more pressure could in the end result in the taxpayer getting a hefty addition to the outstanding national debt. A national debt, that is currently in excess of 1 Trillion Pounds.

So, from my point of view it is important to consider the story we saw recently in the Netherlands. The SNS Reaal board counted on Government bail-outs as they regarded themselves too big to fail. We need to make sure and make it clear that the Co-op banking group is not allowed to be this arrogant, or allowed such a way to a bail-out.

 

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May 10, 2013 · 16:09

Got Milk?

This has been an interesting week for some. This news actually started last week where more and more visibility was given to the fact that shops were running low on baby milk. We are talking about the powder tins that are processed into yummiest milk that babies are supposed to like, love and make them grow healthy.

The UK articles and newscasts showed that shops had limited the baby milk limit to one tin per customer per day. France was already dealing with this issue for some time. The reasoning behind this was the fact that shoppers were buying them on mass to sell them on eBay for staggering profit margins. The interesting part now is that this group has grown into the Netherlands as well, and they now have an issue too.

There the story becomes slightly hilarious. This is what the Dutch Minister Ploumen of foreign trade had to say “Het is natuurlijk prachtig om te horen dat Nederlandse producten geliefd zijn in China, dat is goed voor de werkgelegenheid in ons land. Buitenlandse handel biedt binnenlandse banen. Maar daarentegen kan dit niet ten koste gaan van de Nederlandse moeders en vaders die tegen lege schappen aanlopen” [translation: “It is excellent to hear that Dutch products are desired in China, this is good for Dutch labour opportunities. However, this should not go at the expense of Dutch fathers and mothers who see the empty shelves“]. (Source: http://www.NOS.nl).

So, we have an issue that had been sweeping the market in general for several months. Which is interesting as Nutricia, the Dutch producer who has a world famous reputation for chocolate milk is one of them. They currently have a growing market with spiking needs in excess of 50%. In a time with low economy and overall downsized retails. The minister of foreign trade is talking about empty shelves. But I do agree that this is both a fact and an issue, but is it his?

This hilarious part is that when researching this I found that the Dutch laws have been focussing on different sides of import, especially grey import. This is however an export issue, and so far it seems that the Dutch trade is only outspoken (in a slightly complex way) when it comes to the export of medicines. I did find statements in regards to anti-dumping, that dumping is not an illegal act, which is a discussion for another day.

The interesting side is the lack (as seen at present) on the rules for export. As other nations all have their own rules for import, the export seems to be open to promote trade as much as possible, which makes perfect sense. So it seems that the Minister Ploumen speech of empty shelves is limited to this as there as limitations of export seems to be missing. (There are exceptions as there are clear rules for exporting weapons and medicine).

Except for the few who were quick enough to use the eBay option to sell these packages quickly, this rage of exports is set to people (especially Chinese), who buy these products and mail them to relatives and friends in China. All this based on the baby milk issues within China when their milk was contaminated with the deadly substance Melamine. This initial issue had been reported in 2008 and that had resulted in large numbers of sick baby’s with some fatalities. It is interesting that these levels of mistrust are still an issue now in 2013. Even though there was a call for censorship to prevent larger issues of emerging unrest, I did not find any clear evidence that new baby milk issues emerged, other than the still existing waves of lack of confidence in the local created products.

So considering the facts that these issues have been plaguing the EU since last October, there are two issues to consider.

The first is the question is why the producers did not raise quota needed to fill the shop shelves? It seems extremely unlikely that the producers over 3 nations cannot meet the additional amounts. As I never had to consider this food group, it took a little while to get into the brands. Interesting is that as part of the dozens of brands a sizeable amount refers to: Nestle, Nutricia, Nutripharm and Farleys. Yet, I am not aware of the processes and the amounts that can be produced. So consider that these are the EU’s big four, what is stopping them to increase production? I know that it is unlikely that we just increase the speed of the production line. This is depending on a lot more factors. It is however interesting that these big boys cannot meet demands. It is not certain whether they are working on 24 hour shift solutions, yet three nations, all plagued with employment rate issues and in times of a downsized economy the one product everybody wants, no one can get. So why are we concerned with export legislation at present? (at least in the Netherlands).

You see, this is all about the Chinese import issue. If they start stopping this import then they might be one step away from some serious civil war issues (as most people get REAL cranky when their children are being endangered). If they decide to stop this on quality reasoning, why are they doing this? Their own producers seemed to have endangered their own children. To their defence, at present this seems to be linked to low consumer confidence, not linked to any actual issues at present.

The second issue is about the future. I can agree that the Chinese would prefer joint-venture solutions, yet at present that solution seems unlikely to do anything short term considering the Chinese low confidence in their own products. I agree with any nation that it does not like to depend its future generation on an import issue. That solution reads like little Hans Brinker putting his finger in a dyke whilst 200 meters downwards the dyke is gone, it is very counter-productive. If we care about the population then the Chinese are much better up opening the borders for the next 6 months and avoid optional additional issues with some clever criminal repackaging high end used tins with low end materials. Releasing the pressured need of baby milk, and then get those 4 big boys (or any of them) across the borders, each signing up to address the issues that plagued the factories and get them back on-line with confidence levels that will get the Chinese population back to their local brands. Let us be fair, opening that market seems to be a win for all and basically no one loses there.

What are the additional issues?

To me it seems that export issues are less and less arranged, and I do not think that this is a bad thing. If over regulations hurts trade, then proper actions should be taken, and most nations have decent import regulations in place, so export issues are less likely.

For the UK this is a better arranged side as they are gifted with the UK Export Control Act 2002.

Here we see a few clear options. In S4(2)(b) we read that “(2) For this purpose ‘trade controls’, in relation to any goods, means the prohibition or regulation of their movement;” So this point makes it clear that export can be ‘stopped’ to some effect.

However (there is always a however) Section 1 speaks of Export controls. This states for S1(2) “For this purpose ‘export controls’, in relation to any goods, means the prohibition or regulation of their exportation from the United Kingdom or their shipment as stores.“. And in S4(4) we read that this is linked to S1, which seems to give individuals a clear pass. (Yay for individuality!)

So it seems that the UK companies have clear legislation (which might not be an issue), yet the Dutch and French legislation only seem to have stated rules and limitations when it concerns arms and medicine, beyond that if they were allowed to make it, it can basically be shipped anywhere.

 

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May 9, 2013 · 01:37

Previous Generation towards future Games

At this point it feels important to me to take a look at the lighter side of life. This article is also slightly more intended who remember gaming on systems like the Commodore 64, Atari ST/Amiga and the pre Pentium 1 gaming days. I remember those days well. Simple days! It was all about working the absolute minimum one had to do and the rest of the time was about enjoying the outside life (to some extent) and then to go home and enjoy a video game…..or two. In those days if a boss required you to work overtime, then you went to the chemist at lunchtime and bought him some Valium or Xanax, so he could relax. Good Times!

A few weeks ago I stumbled upon something called D-Fend reloaded, which is a DOS emulation program, with an additional link to a place called ‘My Abandoneware’ at http://www.myabandonware.com

These two places allow you to play the old original games from those early gaming days. The fun part is that I had several of them, yet the advanced options of D-Fend allowed me to slow down the processor to such an extent that those games finally worked again and they worked flawlessly.

Now, for most this is not new, or in some cases they think that these games have nothing to offer.

I beg to differ. The X-Com games and The Ultima series are more than most realise. These games brought a level of original gaming that even today can hardly be surpassed. You see, a good game is not about smooth graphics. It is all about playability. This is without a doubt a lesson we can learn for free so it seems, so this is a number one trip for all readers. The abandoneware site had actually a second option. Each game has a link where the original owner can identify himself, should he object to his game being freely available here. I found one such game, and I bought it for the iPad at the Apple store.

The interesting part is that these games still touch me in some way. These were the original titles and they are part of gaming history. More important, this list of over 4000 games will show you one clear thing. These people were innovators in more than one way. They were able to deliver a game that was able to run on a 640Kb system (yes, I know that most do not even have a memory card that small).

So, consider how the bulk could be transferred to something as ‘simple’ as the Nintendo DS. Add slightly better graphics and several of these titles will soon be more coveted then several high marketed products on the game store shelves today. After 20-25 years that is some achievement.

Of course many of these 4000 games are below par by most standards, but that is the consequence these games have, some were from, or meant for the Commodore 64. It only had 64Kb to work with. It was not until 1990 that this world changed for the personal computer. The main reason was the coming of the SoundBlaster. The SoundBlaster was a soundcard that went to places the Adlib card could not reach (the ruling soundcard in those days). It gave the PC sound abilities that surpassed the initial 16-bit home computers like the Amiga and the Atari ST.

Yes, many will not be swayed as they are so into ‘graphics’, yet these games depended on game play, which is not that far-fetched when you are limited to 640Kb high-end computing powerhouses (as they were then).

Legally this group of games is interesting too. Even though many might not bother or realise this but these games still have copyrights. More important considering the term of copyright, and it currently goes to figure why some of these games are not reset for the new and smaller systems. This is where the one owner option on that games site comes into play. The game that was removed from the system as per request by the original owner was a game called Ascendency. It has a tactical and it has a strategical side to it. I will not go into the game itself, but what is clear is that he made an excellent export to the iPad. Most of the game remained the same. Only small changes were made to get this game to run on my iPad 1. The result is one enjoyable journey into a game thought was lost to me. It works great! Consider that I had no problem dishing over those $7, even though I still have the original PC disk. This version is a happy addition to my collection.

The two big winners here would be Sid Meier and Richard Garriott. Their old games are still as fun and rewarding to play as the moment I got these games in the early 90’s. A dozen games all almost ready to be ported to handhelds and tablets. All ready for a new generation of gamers who will quickly learn that these games filled with game play can easily outlast some high end graphic game we conquer in 20 hours for $99 retail. Comparing new games against transferred game I can see a dozen games, each having 50-100 hours of gaming value at $10 each. That comes down to almost 1000% more game play for the amount of one new game. I say that makes it a win-win for us.

A win one as we get great game play, and win number two as the game industry needs to start thinking long and hard on how their marketing hypes are winning less and less, whilst we the gamer become ever weary on what we are offered and for the amount it is offered for.

Will this stop games like Elder Scrolls 6 or a new God of war? No! Good games will always get our attention.

Their question should be what makes it a good game for us!

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May 7, 2013 · 22:19

Cody Wilson, 003½ with a plastic gun

It is not often we see innovation in a new light. We have seen innovations over time as people found something that was new, that was nice, and then they changed the world, they sometimes change it twice.

Some might have seen it, some might not. There is a ‘new’ novelty printer. This printer is different. It has the ability to print in 3D. It does so by printing plastic. As it prints layer by layer, it creates a 3D plastic model. I saw it in a novelty science store called ‘Professor Plums’ in Crows Nest (Sydney, Australia). As such I have seen small vases, holders and other small trinkets that seem simple, yet, when you consider that these are ‘printed’ objects, you would look again and think ‘How amazing!’.

A law student in Texas took that design to new level. Perhaps this man saw John Malkovic in the movie ‘in the line of fire‘, he put one and one together  and ended up with 15 ‘printed’ parts and that is how he made a plastic gun. You might think what nonsense it was; however, consider the second part of that equation as he added one part that was not printed. The bullet! Then he did what others stated was ‘Science Fiction’ and he fired the gun, making it a working success. The article is at “http://news.sky.com/story/1087396/controversial-3d-printed-gun-fires-test-shots”.

Innovation, an idea to break open the law and the most dangerous item you could ever consider, a gun that does not show up on metal detectors. No matter what he thinks in this regard, I am not attacking him for his convictions. Like him I believe that guns do not kill people. People kill people. The part he might or might not have considered is that the American Arms industry currently represents roughly $11B in 2012. This represents guns and ammo as far as I know, but now that revenue is in some serious peril. No matter how criminals get their guns, they do pay for it. Now, someone needs one 3D printer, plastic toner and the schematics. The result will be a collection of guns without serial numbers, without set bullet striations. I reckon that forensic evidence will never be the same again once these guns hit the streets in numbers. Consider in addition that plastic melts. Dump the used gun in an open fire and the option ‘Beyond reasonable doubt’ will now happily take a gander into never never land.

In the Sky News article it stated New York congressman Steve Israel view “Security checkpoints, background checks, and gun regulations will do little good if criminals can print plastic firearms at home and bring those firearms through metal detectors with no one the wiser.”

Congressman Israel is correct. This is a new day. When Jeff Maguire wrote his idea “In the line of fire” in 1993 he might never have considered that his idea could become a reality. Yesterday the news showed him that reality caught up with his imagination!

So should we blame Jeff Maguire? Seems hardly fair! Should we blame Cody Wilson? I think that his idea to put this on-line would be irresponsible, yet, proving that the idea worked was all it took. It now only takes a slightly clever person to re-engineer this concept. So perhaps we should consider that there is no blame. Perhaps in the US gun control the way they tried to pull off their political games in the last year is now clearly shown to be an utter mistake.

That is how I saw this then; this is how I see it now even more. The clarity remains that guns do not kill people, other people do that!

I am not turning this into a gun debate. This is the issue when technology and innovation catches up with us faster and faster. The fact that new and additional laws are needed gives us two issues.

1. More loopholes. Whatever changes or additions are made, once they introduce a new material, a new way to make 3D models, we will see more changes and more legal issues.

2. “Beyond reasonable doubt”. The plastic gun can too easily be transformed. How long until we buy a small glass container with an Isopropyl Bromide (or variant)? That would be one way to melt plastic. Soon thereafter the prosecution has nothing left. Nothing to work with and due process stops as the gun that was used no longer exists.

This means prosecution of another level. This is nothing compared to the countries where there is a ‘proper’ form of gun control. These nations now have the issue that a printer can get the people the firearms they never had to worry about. Unlike the Golden gun in the James bond film from 1974, these weapons are made from the cheap stuff and they do work.

So from the 60’s we had Star Trek and now we have the mobile phone (we’ve had that device a while), the 80’s we had Star Trek the Next Generation, and now we have the iPad. 1993 we got John Malkovic and his plastic gun, which is now a reality. What will we get next? More important, what laws will these innovations break (or not break as they are too innovative to cover)?

This brings me to the modern Jules Verne. Arthur C. Clarke had 3 laws of predictions. The third one was “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” He came up with that gem in 1962. Considering that into a legal frame I come to is “Any sufficiently advanced technology is not contained as illegal through law“.

This point has been proven in several cases.

– Designer drugs. Often take too long to classify, giving the trendsetters an initial option to score large amounts of money, mCPP is a perfect example of this. (Criminal law)

– Tying (product tying), in many cases, this practice is still (legally allowed) used widely in both Mobile and computer industries. Even though there is criticism against the existence of these laws you still see it used widely in getting a subscription with a provider and getting a ‘free’ phone. Also consider Microsoft and the merging of office software and the IE browser in the core of it all. (Competition law).

– Digital piracy – Peer to peer sharing of movies and music (IP law)

– If we consider the events of LIBOR, Cyprus and the 2008 Bank crash, then we can safely say that banking laws are just not up to speed (especially as unregulated as they are now)

– Now printers that produce firearms.

Consider the next step, which is not that far away. In the movie ‘Ultraviolet’ we see a scene where a mobile phone is nothing more than a plastic mould, ‘distributed’ from a machine, just fold it and it is ready to use. How long until the plastic and electronic print board is just printed on any device. So jacking someone else’s phone is one step away. You will be paying for the ‘used by someone else’ costs. Not identity theft, but consumer technology theft.

From earlier and the last example we see that the law is not up to speed and a rewrite that allows for rules of evidence of another nature is becoming a more pressing matter then we realise, as we see that the law is increasingly running behind.

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