Tag Archives: Israel

October 22, 2024 · 07:13

Can you lose more than once?

That is the underlying thought that came to me when I saw the article in CNN (at https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html) stating ‘Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say’, this is an issue (on more than one level). It. Comes with the underlying text “The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity”, we can jump high and low but America (already) has a massive problem. First there was the she-boy Manning, then we got the Airforce gamer Jack Teixeira and the list doesn’t stop there. The initial investigation into Jack Teixeira gave notice to ‘15 Air National Guardsmen disciplined in Discord server leak’. This is a larger issue. I personally do not care how this sails, but consider the following part “How many leaked documents did the Publics Republic of China hand us?” This is the setting that we all face. When we consider the CNN article with “The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” This implies that the remaining four eyes (namely Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) can now no longer trust America to keep Secret and higher classified documents under wraps. Optionally they are filled with Iranian players (possibly IRGC members) or people with Iranian allegiance. This is a problem, because that setting implies that Aman (military intelligence), Mossad (overseas intelligence) and Shin Bet (internal security) can no longer trust any information to America. 

Screenshot

This is not a joke, Israel has much of the goods (read: actionable intel) in the Middle East, the fact that America is in danger of being cut off from this makes their work harder. Consider actions being considered and the word from the CIA becomes “We don’t know at present” will stop a whole bunch of actions and that implies that America becomes a lot more inactive in the Middle East. This will not hinder China, but this becomes the first clear instance that Chinese intelligence will have the Mustard and America does not. It is also a first peg towards the setting that Saudi and Emirati intelligence would entertain thoughts on some collaboration with China on intelligence and as I see it America has enough problems at present.

Another part is seen with “One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.” A mere addition to the stage is “one of the documents” optionally we get a new view on US intelligence (see below).

And as such the CNN gives us both “A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment” as well as “The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran” which spells trouble for America. The immediate danger for them is that Commonwealth intelligence will become less available. The second danger is that Israeli intelligence will be cut short. That is merely the initial danger. The secondary danger is that both Saudi and Emirati intelligence will close their doors on parties like the CIA, ODNI, DNI, INR, NSA, DIA and that is merely the beginning. There could be a definite setting where the entire intelligence will get an overhaul. In a few years they went from a perspective of being awesome to a close to becoming an absolute joke and this is a field where ‘friends’ will close he doors on you. 

My personal view on this is that the commonwealth needs to close the doors and archives until America finds the leaks in their organisation(s). 

There is a second view in this that this was orchestrated to bind the hands of some, and that is equally a danger as the American navigators can change directions every 4 years. As such the others are almost forced to close their doors until America cleans its houses. 

Well, enjoy your day and according to the CIA, several readers should cut down on the sugar in their coffee.

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October 19, 2024 · 17:26

Kettle, pot and colouring

Yup, that is the setting for today. I saw the news yesterday or the day before and it angered me. The article (at https://cpj.org/2024/10/saudi-arabia-sentences-cartoonist-mohammed-al-ghamdi-to-23-years/) from the CPJ (committee to protect journalists) is as misguided as it is hypocritical. In the first instance I do not know Mohammed al-Ghamdi, I never saw his cartoons or red anything from him. As far as I am concerned as long as the CPJ does not hold its western journalists and editors up to any kind of standard, it needs to shut up. Yesterday I touched on the Politico article regarding Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud and it opened up some issues for me. There is more, the media neglects the interesting ‘good’ Saudi Arabia does and trivialises the harm that Saudi Arabia gets from Houthi terrorists. As such I say that the CPJ needs to shut up.

We are given that “a Saudi cartoonist for the Qatar-based Lusail newspaper, who was sentenced on an undisclosed date in 2024 to 23 years in prison on charges that his cartoons were sympathetic to Qatar and insulted the Saudi government” Saudi Arabia has laws, they might not be the laws the west heralds, but this is a Saudi event. I might not agree, but if I am in Saudi Arabia I would have to adhere to Saudi Laws and there is the chance that my articles fall in bad waters with Saudi Arabia. I do not know as I am not privy to those laws. As far as I know I never known and intentionally insulted anyone in the Saudi government (I might be wrong in this).

Countries have laws, the west (Commonwealth and Europe) for the most on the issue of freedom of speech and as such I tend to use that freedom of speech, yet in that instance I try to maintain a civil tongue. And when Charlie Hedbo was killed, I also supported France, I stood at a vigil in Sydney. I was not aware to the stage that drove someone to kill Charlie Hedbo, but I was in agreement that we had to protest this because Charlie Hedbo was not anti-Muslim. He drew on several occasions images that would have offended the church (the Vatican), as such he was equally ‘diplomatic’ on all faiths. 

Yet this is not about Charlie Hedbo, this is about the double standard the CPJ uses and until they hold western media to a serious level of account, they need to put up or shut up. 

This is pretty much it. I did not check some of the claims made and I am not saying these claims weren’t true. We get “It is time to break this longstanding pattern of imprisoning journalists. Saudi authorities must release al-Ghamdi and drop all charges against him” and I am not opposing this, but I find it interesting that numbers and reasons for imprisonment aren’t given. It this is about less then 5 journalists, it seems a trivial matter (compared to Turkey and a few other places). And lets not forget these Saudi Laws are all documented and as such these ‘journalists’ (optionally a mere one cartoonist) might have decided to leave the country, was that done? 

The CPJ gives us that 50 Journalists were killed in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 2024. So, where is the stink on these 50 journalists? Oh, and why is it “Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and why do we not see the segregation between “West Bank and the Gaza Strip” and “Israel”? It was a simple setting, but the CPJ seems to use a simplistic brush for that. And between 2018 and 2024 we see merely one seemingly killed and I raised plenty of articles between 2018 and 2024 shedding doubt on that setting. Another article gives us that 10 people were imprisoned all whilst the 2023 numbers have a top 10 (Saudi Arabia wasn’t there) and the top is China with 44 imprisoned, Russia with 22, Iran with 17, and Turkey with 13 imprisoned. Yet in all of these cases, we see an absence of reasons and there is the issue. The (western) press has in the last 10 years lost pretty much all credibility, as such a reason for imprisonment is required. I have an issue with the CPJ because a population with less credibility than a drug pusher in a school yard has several issues and I do not think the CPJ is in a position to demand any kind of charge drop until the status quo of journalists is re-established with a level of credibility that most of us find acceptable. The chase for digital dollars in the last decade pretty much diminished their right for a ‘protected’ status. 

People might not like my view on the matter, but that is my preview on the matter. Perhaps the CPJ would like to rewrite the article in something more palatable?

Have a great Saturday.

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October 16, 2024 · 22:46

The Squeezing hand

The Arab News had an interesting piece two days ago. It starts with ‘Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah’ and it can be found (at https://arab.news/9bh3s). The story comes from Dr. Majid Rafizadeh and he talks an interesting talk (you know how these Harvard types tend to be). We get to see “The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.” Where we are also given “Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy.” We can from this gain the insight that the actions from Israel has met its goals. This is meant plural as we see in the first that they eradicated the top of Hezbollah and as such a whole new cadre of Hezbollah need to be interned and trained to keep the money streams going, as well as the hardware they require. And here lies the second tier of a new challenge. Iran will need a whole range of ‘military advisors’ in that region and that gives its own sides of problems (as I personally see it). The second tier becomes that the initial ‘brotherly’ setting towards Hamas is backfiring. So either Hamas commits to Hezbollah as well, or they become a lot more isolated. Yet the stage that is given through “There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence” As Israel pounds Lebanon the options for Hezbollah decrease, by a fair bit. An expression that comes to mind is “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze”, this is not merely the act of squeezing, but it reflects on the fruit as well. If you have a fruit half the size the squeeze is no longer worth it and that is the part that Iran faces in this year and the next. As Hezbollah is dramatically downsized by Israel, Iran loses more and more regional influence and if Israel hits oil targets the stage will soon collapse. Yes, I saw all kinds of news that Israel stated that they will limit the attack to military targets and here is the little loophole. Oil is a valid military target as Iranian oil (a slight speculation) fuels all kinds of terrorist needs. 

And then we see the immense failure of America (CIA), we are given “Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests” For over a decade a clear strategy against Hezbollah was required, but the CIA and other intelligence machines fell short. So are they really out there aiding Israel, or are they aiding the setting of prolonged instability? I made this accusation a few years ago and I am seemingly proven correct again and again. 

The article ends with “the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies” I can see this side and whilst I do not agree on this stance coming, I can clearly see that it will a likely output. To thwart this setting and steer the Arabian peninsula towards a larger shaped stability, Israel would gain a lot by pounding Hezbollah back to the stone age (as expressions go). So in the line of “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” there are two sides deciding this. Make the fruit smaller and weaken the squeezing hand. These two settings will end the ‘reign’ of Iran over Hezbollah and that is what is needed. Iran is playing a dangerous game going all the way back to June 2023. The attack of 7 October 2023 took time, there were training flights, there were preparations and Iran was the assisting hand since before day one. That is the side that the media ignores, that is the side that was in the open and the allies (say friends) of Israel never saw this coming? The writer (Dr. Majid Rafizadeh) brings a good case I fully agree with him, yet my (non-informed) side has issues. You see Iran has been doing this for at least 18 years and I think that more people should be in the know on this. I wonder how many people are ‘dissuading’ people due to the crude oil loophole I discussed in ‘Is it merely political?’ on October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) I wonder how many stakeholders get fed of that premise? I do not know, but the need for greed and ‘hand outs’ make this a much bigger issue than you think and that is not good. Because it allows Iran to play the same dangerous game for much too long. Agree or disagree as you see fit, but ask your self the question. ‘How is Iran playing this game for this long and the media isn’t up to speed?’ It is nice to blame the media, but the fact that they didn’t report on many occasions makes their hands tainted as I see it, and they also refrained to expose several stake holders in the process. How does that hit you?

And a mere 50 minutes ago we see the the Washington Post give us: ’Israel strikes southern Beirut; U.S. demands restraint in Lebanon, aid for Gaza’, I wonder what they didn’t report on, because that part needs to be exposed as well. The added text “Separately, the administration gave Israel a month to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, warning it could otherwise take punitive steps, including withholding military aid”, the Times of Israel gives us IDF data shows over 26,000 rockets fired at Israel. My small question becomes “What was the cost of that?” If a rocket costs a mere $100,000, than Hamas kept a little over 2.6 billion out of the mouths of Palestinians and that is merely 2023. As such Hezbollah also fired missiles, The group reportedly has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges between 160 and 300 kilometres, What were those costs? As such how could Iran pay for it all? Both Hamas and Hezbollah did not pay top dollar for that, so what was the hand out by Iran? In 1976 we got the phrase “Follow the money”, it comes from the movie ‘All the presidents men’, as I see it Bob Woodward really screwed the media over with that one (me, laughing out loud), oh, and he was involved with the Washington Post for some time. So who trailed the Iranian money?

Have a great day.

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October 14, 2024 · 16:41

What we see as good

That is at times the question. You see, we see via Twitter and Facebook all kind of dubious shenanigans on how we would be saved by another Crusade (implied innuendo). That sounds nice, but the setting was that we had to go there thrice and still it ended in an uneasy truce. Now there is absolutely no guarantee that Christians will succeed this time around. The first crusades were enacted through greed and pillaging and even now the Christians remain in denial of that part. I do not think this will ever change. And it gets from bad to worse after that. The ‘west’ is still working under the believe that they can come on top of it. Just like the NRA believing that they stand a chance against the US military in an insurrection mode. (It took me 30 minutes to stop myself from howling from laughter).

You see, “The Cabinet of the United Arab Emirates, following the implementation of the UAE Federal Law No. 7 in November 2014, designated a list of 83 organisations and entities including the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Hezbollah, Houthis and the Islamic State as terrorist organisations” that was a decade ago, they still see Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation. As such it is remarkable that the Khaleej Times gives us ‘Thousands of UAE residents turn up at Expo City Dubai to pack aid boxes for Lebanon’ (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/hundreds-of-uae-residents-turn-up-to-expo-city-dubai-to-pack-aid-boxes-for-lebanon) it is here that we see how utterly remarkable the people of the UAE are. Here we are given “Thousands of UAE residents turned up at the Dubai Exhibition Centre in Expo City early on Saturday morning to pack aid kits for those affected by the crisis in Lebanon. Some left homes as early as 6am to make it to the event which began at 9. Many brought items to contribute, which were collected at the location while others chose to make monetary contributions to registered charities at the event” now reflect on this against the events in Europe where affected countries include Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Thousands of people have been evacuated; at least 26 people have died, and thousands have been displaced. So tell me how many people got into an active mode to help and support these people? Not that many (a pure guess on my side) and here we see thousands of people supported through goods and donations as well as packing the parcels for the people affected. 

And these westerners thinks that they can ‘fuel’ a new crusade setting? Don’t make me laugh. 

Even the UAE organisers were amazed as we read “The capacity of the hall is 1,000 people and that’s how many people we were expecting,” said Dr Tariq Al Gurg, CEO and Vice Chairman of Dubai Cares. “But we have already had 2,500 volunteers, and we are expecting it to rise to 3,500 or 4,500 by the end of the session. We had to really rapidly change the strategy to ensure as many people could have the experience. The packing sessions were shortened to about 40 minutes.” A hall sized up for a thousand people and they ran out of space well before noon and think of a thousand people in a place that goes warmer than 36 degrees Celsius. That is what the people are up against. A whole ‘horde’ of people who make it their business to give aid to the people of 

Lebanon. It is also here where we see “He said the 10,000 boxes that the volunteers packed were just part of the aid being provided to Lebanon. “We will give them tents, drinking water, food supplies and hygiene kits. Also, we will get them proper instructors to get them psychosocial support.”” That is what Lebanon needs (well they heed a seize fire more), but that is all in the hands of Hezbollah and whilst they hide behind the three killed UN soldiers. The papers are eager to dismiss the fact that Israel told the UN soldiers to get out of the way, but they refused. I cannot fault either side for this, but the fact that Hezbollah (in support of Hamas) decided to fire on Israel was pretty much the dumbest thing they decided on in 2024. But on the good side, the people of the UAE rallied for the people of Lebanon and that is equally dismissed (as far as I could tell) by the western media. And this isn’t the only event, a similar event is being conducted in Abu Dhabi on Sunday (October 14th) at the cruise terminal. Dr Al Gurg said similar packing events will be held in the coming weeks as well. And that is who these Crusade claiming weirdo’s want to go up against? In 1095 the Westerners had over a century of advantage and they barely got out alive they lost a few million lives, on equal footing (now) it is massively likely that the west will not survive that stupidity. But it is not about the neo-Crusades. It is about how a country (the United Arab Emirates) decided to unite to give aid to the Lebanese. A nation 2500 km away from Lebanon and they rallied like nothing else. I wonder what happens when they really set the marker  on what these volunteers of the UAE find unacceptable.

As such I say, well done emirates and on a side note (as I find the setting to hilarious for words) there is every chance that Jerusalem at some point will see

Determination of the people is half the war and these Neo Crusade weepers might take notice of what we see in the Khaleej Times. And when you take notice of that, also take notice on the western media not taking notice (as far as I could tell). So well done Dubainese and Abu Dhabians. Well done!

Enjoy the day.

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October 12, 2024 · 16:11

The afterthought

It is Reuters that gave us ‘Exclusive: Stop Israel from bombing Iran’s oil sites, Gulf states urge US’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/stop-israel-bombing-irans-oil-sites-gulf-states-urge-us-2024-10-11/) Now normally this doesn’t bother or alert me, but after the 6th when I wrote ‘Is it merely political?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) where we got to see “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” Now we see Gulf states all ‘worried’ about Iran, or are they perhaps worried about the cheap deal they have from Iran counting in the billions? A setting that most of us ignored as we were unaware of the loophole. But now, even after Iran threatens Israel, we are given “Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters” and in the article we aren’t given any names are we? Which Gulf sources? I think that we are entitled those answers, are we not? Isn’t it interesting that Reuters missed that beat, but then the media is becoming less and less reliable. And it makes sense that the first thing Israel goes after is the money, hence the oil. And in all of this Gulf states are urging the US to stop Israel from bombing oil sites? Who are the stake holders, what Gulf nations are involved and how is that money flowing? More important how can we track that money. How can we expose these exploiters? 

These are all questions that are derived from the article on the 6th of October that Politico gave us. If they rebranded 2 billion of Russian oil, there is nothing to stop us thinking that Iran gave others a lot more and from the gulf states there is plenty of players around to do whatever it takes to get a share of a mere 50 million and this has been going on for a while (a speculative thought). The Russia story came out relatively fast, but the Iran dilemma has been going on for decades and now with the Hezbollah eradication as well as the pounding of Hamas, these stake holders are worried that their well dries up and now they are speculatively crying like little bitches that their free ride is drying up. OK, that might have been a little over the top but the sentiment comes across, does it not? Now, I could be wrong, one sides does not prove the other. To put it simplistically every cube is a orthotope, not every orthotope is a cube. As such what is happening in Russia might not happen in Iran. On the other hand, what was set in motion to be applied to Iran was pretty much a setting for Russia as well. And the media isn’t asking questions, why not?

Until recently when Politico showed us the loophole no one asked questions and now they should have asked a few questions, yet they still are not. How weird is that?

Apply that to the fact that we are merely give “three Gulf sources told Reuters” and no one wakes up? Why is that?Journalists are not that dim, as such, I suspect that at least one stakeholders has a larger finger in the journalism pie of Reuters. Just a thought to consider.

Have a great weekend.

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October 4, 2024 · 21:11

Accepted doubt

This is on my, or better stated my view on matters. In this case it is the Reuters article ‘Exclusive:  Kushner has discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomacy with Saudi crown prince’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/kushner-has-discussed-us-saudi-diplomacy-with-saudi-crown-prince-2024-10-04/) which was released less than 30 minutes ago. I have had serious doubt on the media on a near global stage and at this moment Reuters has gained several points towards doubt. Yet, in this case I am willing to put doubt on my ability to see things clearly. 

So, lets take a look.

“The news that Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader discussed a peace accord”, here we see the statement “de-facto leader”, we know that Saudi Arabia still has a king, but what stops Reuters to state “The news that Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud discussed a peace accord”, both are in principle correct. Yet the Reuters statement comes across as Saudi bashing. ‘To put a person in its place’ might be the interpretation as many would see it, especially in the Middle East. Then we get “renew questions about whether Kushner’s financial ties with Riyadh could influence U.S. policy under his father-in-law”, so what is the issue here? It is a serious question because the article does not give us a complete report on what those ties are, we get a link to the Hill, there we see ““crossed the line of ethics” by accepting a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government in his private investment firm six months after he left the White House” my question in this is were laws broken? You see, the investment was done AFTER he left the White House. So were laws broken, or were they not. 

Then we get “To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, the Biden administration has offered Riyadh security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program and a renewed push for a Palestinian state. The deal could reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding the world’s biggest oil exporter to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region” How come that China is diminished with “when China is making inroads in the region” and what is this about “assistance with a civilian nuclear program”. My issue is that China has been making inroads for the better part of two years. As such making inroads, comes across as a joke, massively inaccurate. So why was the civilian nuclear program added? Could be true, could be anything. But the media at present has a massive credibility issue and whilst space on a webpage is nearly free, Reuters is a little stingy on using it.

Last we get to “The Saudi relationship with Trump was notably close. Trump’s first foreign trip as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, accompanied by Kushner. After Saudi expatriate opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump stood by the crown prince in spite of a U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing. MbS denied involvement.” Is filled with inaccuracies. No clear evidence has been produced that Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, there was an assumption and the setting that “U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing” is even more inaccurate. The document A/HRC/41/CRP.1 which was given to the world by the Human Rights Council does not give us that either. In that report U.S. Intelligence is mentioned twice. In one case we are given “The Directive states that if a U.S. intelligence agency “acquires credible and specific information indicating an impending threat of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping,” that agency has a duty to warn the intended victim.” No mention of authorisation or anything regarding an order by Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. I am adding that document at the bottom. As such I have issues with the Reuters article. 

There is more but read the article yourself. The article hands us a pice of evidence that Reuters is losing credibility. 

I am not a Trump fan, but at present there is a larger stage and the Biden administration of fumbling the ball, and as issues go at present, China will be a large bigger inroad in the Middle East (Saud Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) in 2025 and I have to wonder how much inroad they will make in Egypt in 2025.

But I hope that the message comes across. And in the second stage, what laws did Kushner break? Because in the end that is what matters. 

Have a great day

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September 29, 2024 · 22:23

The first stage in a setting

This is the first of two, the second is of a much lighter sense, as such I am leaving this for desert. The first one (this one) is heavy and will offend a whole lot of people. I have stated this opinion before, but that stage got back in my mind after I saw this article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue) where we are given ‘Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about Palestinian issue’, it sounds nice. We are then given “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue”, according to a report in The Atlantic.” I do Care and as the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia (Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud) tells us “Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative to establish a Palestinian state and garner support for the implementation of a two-state solution after decades of international efforts failed, leading the region to the brink of an all-out war”, which several sources told us including Al-Arabiya (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2024/09/27/saudi-arabia-announces-new-global-coalition-to-establish-palestinian-state).

My view is that I have nothing against the establishment of Palestine, but it does urgently require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is a hate only party and sooner or later they will abide by the ‘requests’ of Iran and hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran wants to be at the head of the table, or they will ensure that no one will sit there and destabilisation continues. That time has passed and Iran still depends on Houthi and Hamas to bring their point across in the most violent way possible. Now that Hezbollah has been carved into pieces by Israel, Houthi terrorists will think twice on continuing on a path where they ‘assist’ Iran in any way possible. And sooner or later (probably sooner) Iran will find a way for Palestinians or Yemeni’s to find a low paying jobs just to throw wherever they are (in the KSA or UAE) to foul things up. In simple ways that will demand long term repairs or even reconstructing parts that were already done and soon (either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates) will through ‘anonymous’ sources to get a larger seat for Iran at the table. This is not speculation, it is presumption based on the actions of Iran over the last 20 years. And as such The eradication of Hamas is a given need. When they fall away Iran has merely Yemen to fall back onto and that stops Iran (for now) in its tracks. As Yemen (read Houthi terrorists) sees what damage Israel did to Hezbollah and Hamas next, they will choose a non-violent path, especially when Iran stops taking their calls. 

I believe that there are options especially as Iran loses the two terrorist allies they have. I don’t think it will be the end of it, but I believe that stability in the middle east is essential to a better world and too many power players think that destabilisation is key to their wealth. That needs to stop. I know that it is merely my view and many will state that I am wrong, but as I see it, there are too many people having blind faith in Iran turning a page to a better future, all whilst this path has been walked by administrations for 3 decades. It is time to call it quits. We need solutions there and they need to be made by the right people. Oh, and for those that think that this isn’t essential. Remember that Hamas on 7 October 2023 initiated a sudden attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As part of the attack, 364 individuals, mostly civilians, were killed and many more wounded at the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, an open-air music festival during the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret near kibbutz Re’im and they took 40 people hostage. As far as we know from those 40 hostages, 14 of the hostages are still being held captive. That has been the focal point for Israel. And the setting that we see with the ‘proclaimed’ 40,000 deaths and it was clear months ago that Israel stated ‘Let our people go’ that is what Hamas pushed for and now that Hezbollah has lost pretty much the complete top of their structure (pager by pager) Iran is worried and so should Hamas be. I get that Saudi Arabia wants to stand by Muslims and that is something a lot of people understand, but it does require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas did this to themselves on October 7th 2023. Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) need to focus on stability for the middle east and in this case I count Egypt as a middle eastern player. Egypt will be important to Saudi Arabia down the line with 5G advancements as well as the fact that 111 million Egyptians are a great goal for the Saudi Broadcasting Authority, they could largely increase their visibility, moreover, it would allow Egypt to broadcast to Muslims in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. And from there, optionally to more nations in Europe. But that is merely my insight lacking view on the matter. OK, it has a personal view. As more islamic people get connected to streaming TV and streaming solutions, my script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ might actually be released at some point (my ego tends to seek solutions too).

It is almost Monday now. So have a great day and you will hopefully enjoy this Sunday.

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September 28, 2024 · 00:09

The partial view that is seen

This partial view comes from the BBC. When I looked at the article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz04depp2nro) the headline gave us ‘Can diplomacy bring Middle East ceasefire? Early signs don’t bode well’ it was the second part of the headline that woke me up. We are given “What they meant was they saw getting an agreement from key European countries and Arab states, led by Washington, as a big diplomatic achievement during the current explosive escalation. But this was world powers calling for a ceasefire – not a ceasefire itself.” It holds part of the problem I see. We also get “The statement urges both Israel and Hezbollah to stop fighting now, using a 21-day truce, “to provide space” for further mediated talks. It then urges a diplomatic settlement consistent with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented. It also calls for agreement on the stalled Gaza ceasefire deal.” The first part that got to me was “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” There were ‘signals’ that were seemingly ignored. “It was unanimously approved by the United Nations Security Council on 11 August 2006. The Lebanese cabinet unanimously approved the resolution on 12 August 2006. On the same day, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that his militia would honor the call for a ceasefire. He also said that once the Israeli offensive stops, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel would stop. On 13 August the Israeli Cabinet voted 24–0 in favour of the resolution, with one abstention. The ceasefire began on Monday, 14 August 2006 at 8 AM local time, after increased attacks by both sides.” Now we ‘see’ the message that the resolution (1701) was never properly implemented. It has been basically 18 years. So what wasn’t properly implemented? Why do we see this now after 18 years? My issue is that there are a number of issues, and there are more players than Israel and Hezbollah/Hamas involved. The journalists taking a back seat to whatever digital dollars they are trying to get. The second are the politicians, both the involved and those connected. So why did we not see the repeated messages (via the media) to state who is was lacking in implementation and why?

So there is more than the early signs. As I personally see it there is a lack of follow up in these cases. 

We then get “intensive diplomacy led by Washington has failed to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, with the US currently blaming a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel. Meanwhile, the US has continued to arm Israel. That doesn’t inspire confidence that Washington and its allies can now strong-arm Israel and Hezbollah into a quick truce, especially given the fighting on the ground, the intensity of Israel’s air strikes and last week’s explosive pager attacks on Hezbollah, which has continued to fire into Israel.” The part that I do not agree with is “a lack of “political will” by Hamas and Israel.” My issue is that (possibly) both players here have seen a massive lack of commitment from several sides. The very first is given through “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” I cannot tell who dropped the ball first, or which players lacked in their ‘commitments’ but there were players who failed (optionally merely Hezbollah and/or Israel), the simple setting taking us back 18 years as well as the fact that nowadays media (this last decade) is more driven to chase digital dollars then the news. That gives doubt to how far this thing goes. And it goes beyond the Lebanese borders. The setting that exists with Gaza is still evolving. The US administration, as well as the EU have been playing these settings fast and loose is a dangerous setting and these players are no longer regarded as reliable. That becomes the ball game. Mediation only works when the mediator or mediators are no longer trusted, no ceasefire will ever work. 

It is my speculation, one I had for many years is, that the EU and the USA have been playing a dangerous game, optionally staged towards ‘a one step tactic from destabilisation’ and in this the games that Iran is playing do not help and now that it all goes to (assumed) shit, no amount of ceasefire prays will offer any decent insight into any resolution. So the ‘early signs don’t bode well’ is to be expected. That is clear, is it not? 

If you wonder what can be done I am, like many others at a loss for words or advice. The problem is that too many player have had their own agenda in mind. That is less speculation, more presumption. In this I call for the first piece of evidence “United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – adopted to end the last Israel-Lebanon war of 2006, which was never properly implemented” and the evidence is that in 1982 I worked for the United Nations Security Council, and they have failed to keep the audience (as far as I know) properly informed for 18 years? So what good were they? I understand that they do not inform the audience, but they do report, usually governments, and this gets to the media one way or another. As such I see a massive failure in play. And you wonder why either Israel or Hezbollah has issues with either (or both) America and the EU? I wonder if this setting is not better served by mediation through a joined council of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and USA. The USA is essential to get Israel on board. I doubt that they will accept merely the other three parties but that is merely my speculation in this.

So as I just sailed into the night of Saturday, have a great day and as Vancouver is trailing us by 17 hours. I can report to them that nothing is happening at 00:03. Have a great day, wherever you are.

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September 23, 2024 · 22:21

A land in fear

That happens, countries like people can be in fear. The stand of a country is usually set by the speakers of that land. That is what I personally believe and behold, we get the Arab News giving us (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2572458/middle-east) with the headline ‘Iraq’s top Shiite cleric calls for end to Israeli ‘aggression’ on Lebanon’, which is fun, because at present the larger collection of western nations are trying to figure out how it was done. I think that the NSA had a direct line to DARPA and I reckon they figured it out. The DGSE, ASIO, MI6 and BND were pretty much in the dark (until they received a call that is). So as we are given “Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Shiite Islam’s highest authority in Iraq, appealed Monday for “every possible effort” to end Israeli “aggression” against Lebanon, where it is targeting the Shiite Hezbollah movement.” With the missing paragraph “On 8 October 2023, Hezbollah started firing guided rockets and artillery shells at Israeli positions in the occupied Shebaa Farms, which it said was in solidarity with Palestinians following the Hamas attack on Israel that took place a day earlier.” They have been attacking for the larger part of 26 weeks and now we get Iraqi clerics about the Israeli “aggression” on Lebanon? I think certain people are getting afraid. Allegedly Israel completed an attack against Hezbollah laid waste against the communications of Hezbollah. And no one really knows why. It happened under the noses of everyone and everyone missed it. 

So when we get to “Sistani called for “the exercise of every possible effort” to end this “barbaric aggression and to protect the Lebanese people.”” How about ending rocket launches on Israel? This has been going on and on (and on) and now people wonder what kind of creativity comes next. I am still in favour of my new solution to ment down the nuclear reactors of Iran and Russia. Then there is my stealth system that could end the use of harbours in several places. These are merely two solutions that are out in the open and I reckon that Iraq feels safe from my second system as they really do not have any naval bases, but for Iran and Russia it is a different matter. 

So when we get to “Sistani called for “the exercise of every possible effort” to end tensions” I wonder when he called Hezbollah to tone it down, but I feel fairly certain that this didn’t happen and in the mean time Hezbollah and the enemies of Israel will face a next wave of their creativity. As such we see Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Shiite Islam’s highest authority in Iraq speak his mind and subsequently his fear to Arab News. Yes, this has every chance of escalating in the near future. 

Why does this happen?
My issue isn’t Iraq, it is Iran and I reckon that they wanted someone else to speak their Shiite state of mind. I thinks it is too hypocritical (even) for Iran to ship weapons to Hezbollah whilst asking (read: demanding) for Israel to sit back and await the impact of the weapons. And in this it amounts to the fact that everyone (and I mean everyone) didn’t see coming what Israel had up its sleeve. I reckon that plenty of terrorist providers are shaking in their boots. They idea that pagers explode makes the entire communication realm they rely on, a little shaken. But that is merely my point of view. And the fact that they now optionally rely on foreign clerics on the one sided message is a much larger problem as I see it. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is merely the first but I doubt he s alone in this. If this is an Iranian move (as I speculate) there is every chance that Shiite clerics have an increasing problem in the nearby future. This is not a given, but other countries would possibly be taking a firmer stance on Shiite clerics. Am I right? I honestly do not know, but there are definitely markers that could imply this. 

It is a worry and a larger upcoming stage towards destabilisation. A setting Iran likes (Russia too), the rest of the country is not on board with this and I speculate that the Sunni clerics are not happy either. They have enough of an issue in foreign nations to get the Islamic message across, I doubt they want this, but that is merely my non-Islamic point of view.

Lets try to enjoy the day before we consider the hassles of tomorrow.

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February 21, 2024 · 23:44

Exit towards destabilisation

That is the setting that we see coming a mile away, or at least I am and that is how I see it. Today I am given ‘China condemns US veto of call for immediate ceasefire at UN’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68355436) and I have a problem with this. You see, the problem with the article is that we see “China has sharply criticised the US for vetoing a United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.” Yet, the issue is more complex. There can not now, or will there ever be peace as long as Hamas exists. Hamas will never stop. Its commanders are safely in Qatar, a nation that has given Hamas almost $2,000,000,000 in financial support. Then there is Iran and they both are vying for destabilisation in the Arabian peninsula. It is a very personal view, but I believe that is the game that is being played with Hamas as puppets, right next to the Houthi forces. The problem is that we are given disinformation from nearly every side and that is hampering insight and optional progress. 

As I see it the two powers in the Middle East are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This is not what either Qatar or Iran like. They want a much bigger seat at the table and as such there is an essential need to rely on Hamas and Houthi forces and in this Iran seems the only actor, but I am not convinced. There is no clear intelligence what Qatar is doing beside sheltering the top of Hamas, which is as far as I can tell not a crime, not even in the Arabian peninsula nations. As I stated a personal view is that it is much better that Israel deals with Hamas. You see when BRICS evolves and the table setting is clear Iran will not be happy. They want more and they will push Hamas (and others) to get a larger seat at the table of plenty and Hamas being the one trick pony they are will strike out at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia first striking their projects. Lets be clear, I have no intelligence available that this will happen, but knowing what I do know. A one trick pony will resort to what it knows and for Hamas this is violence, and violence alone. At that point the KSA will either strike back in full or they will have to concede. Do you think that the KSA will concede against a terrorist organisation? It would be all the information that the Houthis would require to attack again and again, and Iran would show its clean hands stating “We had no hand in this” all whilst supplying weapons to both. 

This is the stage of destabilisation that China needs and that is at this point the wrong stance to have. As such my message to China’s UN ambassador Zhang Jun who gives us “Only by extinguishing the flames of war in Gaza can we prevent the fires of hell from engulfing the entire region” is “take Hamas out of the region and talks can begin”. You see the stage of Palestinian territory’s Hamas-run health ministry is the larger problem. Anything Hamas run is tainted and that needs to stop. We can cry all we want for the Palestinians, yet Hamas is part of the problem and it started on October 7th 2023. Too many are ducking that part and have been since day one of the IDF assaults. That is before we consider the larger stage that we are given that the UNRWA is accused of directly supporting Hamas. The Washington Post gave us an image of a Hamas data centre UNDER the UNRWA building. The problem is that all sides are engaged with disinformation. I cannot deny that there are voices that Israel is doing the same that Palestine are doing in that regard. Israel has had well over a week to publish all evidence via all newspapers, they did not do that, that must be considered as well. 

My largest fear is that Hamas is pushed to attack any of the KSA projects and that will start new stages of destabilisation, not to say what they will do given a chance to Dubai and Abu Dhabi. I believe that the risk is too high for any Arabian peninsula nation. In all this Hamas must go, preferably today and permanently. 

I truly believe that this is the only way that there is a future for the Palestinians and to remain with a stable middle east. The problem is that I am stating this based on information available to me and there could be issues with that. Yet there is no denying that Hamas is a problem for everyone and the sooner all others realise this, the better we all will be.

Enjoy the week. I might be away for a few days.

 

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