Tag Archives: Standard Deviation

Ehhh Eye Vee Vee

Yup that is the setting I found myself in, but I need to explain it via a small detour. This is not about that bubble, it is about something that will instigate that bubble and the businesses ad corporations that are in the setting that they are pushed into. As I see it, it benefits me, but about that later. So I saw a few articles pass by, the first one being (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-30/ai-boom-big-tech-investment-drain-market-volatility/106857426) where we see ‘Are the wheels falling off the AI investment boom?’, the article is average, but there was one part that stopped me in my tracks. It started with “Huge amounts of investment, trillions of dollars, have been thrown at AI, initially into model development, then semiconductor and cloud computing and now into hard asset build-outs with data centres. They, in turn, require vast amounts of energy and water. And that’s where the newest set of problems begin.

While the race to develop the technology has been a sprint, little thought has been given to the problems and constraints associated with the rollout. Now, suddenly, the brakes are being applied.” With gives us the added “The tech giants funded the early stages of AI development with the vast amounts of cash they were throwing off their existing operations. The more they spent, the more investors loved them. But their vast capital requirements combined with rapidly rising costs have forced them to tap credit markets. Instead of spare cash, they’re now raising debt, which ramps up the risks dramatically. And it’s only likely to increase. Research firm Gartner estimates global AI spending will hit $US2.6 trillion this calendar year, while Goldman Sachs estimates a further $US7.3 trillion will be spent by the end of the decade, much of it on data centres. And that’s the problem, according to Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya. “These huge investments are also draining big tech’s free cashflow, obliging companies to take on more debt and putting their valuations under pressure,” she says.” The one takeaway is “more debt and putting their valuations under pressure” so why the rest? Well it is a decent setting of the why things are given to us and that is not merely the stat, the start is in the second article that is related on very different grounds. You see, (at https://www.clinicaltrialvanguard.com/opinion/benchmark-scores-dont-break-clinical-reality-does-the-health-ai-readiness-illusion/) we are given ‘Benchmark Scores Don’t Break. Clinical Reality Does. The Health AI Readiness Illusion.’ They give us the missing part. It is seen in “The January 2024 draft guidance created accountability structures around change management and post-market surveillance. It did not create a standard for pre-deployment adversarial evaluation. The Nature Medicine paper, read alongside the Cisco adversarial benchmark data, is essentially the field publishing a gap analysis that the FDA has not yet written.” So we get the first stage is “more debt and putting their valuations under pressure” and now we add “a gap analysis that the FDA has not yet written”, so before you dismiss this, consider what I have written why I consider all AI Fake AI. The parts that we are seeing is “What has not been written (consider: seen) yet”. You see, I have been involved with technical support and customer care for over a decade, and at the centre of the failures we are about to see is the lack of Validation and Verification. So whist these young upstarts are saying “We’ll correct that on the flip side”, consider how many failures will make you dump the product you have for all time and seek an alternative? These three parts is what makes a product lose nearly all credibility. For me it spells great news. It might not be today (which would be great) but in the very near future, these people who dumped staff will realise that the knowledge of their corporations went out the window, so they will need to train a whole new generation and in technical support you are lucky to get one in three (some say one in five) that embrace the support side of things and now see where the “more debt” parts will make this change expensive beyond believe (for them) and whilst they are looking for a neat gap to hide in, these young upstarts (to give it a name) will figure out that they weren’t told the whole picture and that is where validation and verification will bite all those who ignored it. 

I think that House MD (Hugh Laurie) got close with “Everybody lies”, it isn’t completely correct in this case, it is “Everybody merely thinks in his own lane and disregards whatever is beside them” and that is where debts and their valuation will strangle them like a chain lacking length around their necks wielding a 45000 lbs anchor, Have you tried swimming with that? Believe me, it isn’t a pretty sight for the swimmer (for as long as that person can hold its breath). That part should be clear at this point. So consider all these corporations cutting staff to the bare minimum and continuing on this disastrous setting. This is why I foresaw Microsoft (having a massive amount of products) getting into a larger stage. They are cutting in their Gaming division and in April we were given “Microsoft will offer voluntary retirement to about 7% of workers. The company is also closing about 6,000 open roles” it isn’t that they are ‘humane’ by sending these 6,000 people (or a large chunk of this)  into voluntary retirement, it is that their knowledge was send home and their fake AI is dealing with validation and verification to a larger extend, now consider the copilot issues they have and someone stating that AI was doing their work for 30% (it was Satya Nadella) now consider that over the last few weeks we had all these issue brought to light. So how much credibility is that 30%? It is not 0%, because some parts can be decently done with Deeper Machine Learning (and optional Large Language Models) but when 10% is thrown out of the window and you are bleeding knowledge and your systems are buckling (for lack of a better term) what will be left of your $2,740,000,000,000 capitalization? I reckon that some adjustment is coming quite soon to Microsoft and they are not alone. All who steered this dangerous path will see this coming their way (whether you use copilot or not), so do not think you are safe with Anthropic, ChatGPT or Gemini. The centre piece in all this is Validation and Verification and too many used Reddit to get their numbers up (who checks less than 3% of all data), which implies that 97% is dangerously lacking creditation (is that even a word?). And I saw this coming a mile away. It was easier for me as I speak a multitude of languages and I got my job in 1992 over a misunderstanding. It was for SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) they asked me what a Standard Deviation was and I (with some pride) states “It is the difference between true nor and magnetic North altering a few degrees eastward on an annual bases” It is, but that was not what the interviewer meant. Still I got points for original thinking. That is one of the validations missing in everything. Terms are all accepted globally whilst there is a localised exception, that is with the best of validations in place and it goes down from that. I gave an example That Eric Winter (the actor is a god) (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/07/05/eric-winter-is-a-god/) on July 5th 2023. So how many played a role before they were born? Or when they were still a toddler? That is the verification setting we see slamming the hammer and miss the bell completely and that is Google who messed up. So when they do, what chances to non-data savvy companies have?

And that was all in English, so consider the issues that you have when languages are introduced. I (with giggles) point to a Knolleland (dutch: field of beats) towards the Swedish version where it can be seen as a fuck field (the 18+ version) and that are merely 2 versions. So in all this verification leading to validation is out the window. As I see it, for me with all these years in technical support and customer care will get a few offers in the near future (I can hope can’t I?)

As such I have made my case once again that at present all AI is fake AI and that is before you consider the issues that I illustration (the last time, at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/06/01/the-new-short-is-coming/) in ‘The new short is coming’, so you wanna hedge your best on me being wrong on that bubble? It would be your money, so I don’t care hat you do, but I am keeping my retirement funds far away from that mess. So you all have a great day. I wish I was in Toronto, its dinner time there and with that the idea of a yummy pizza at Eataly is invading my mind now.

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IT said vs IT said

This is a setting we are about to enter. It was never rocket science, it was simplicity itself. And I mentioned it before, but now Forbes is also blowing the trumpet I mentioned in a clarion call in the past. The article (at https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2025/07/11/hallucination-insurance-why-publishers-must-re-evaluate-fact-checking/) gives us ‘Hallucination Insurance: Why Publishers Must Re-Evaluate Fact-Checking’ with “On May 20, readers of the Chicago Sun-Times discovered an unusual recommendation in their Sunday paper: a summer reading list featuring fifteen books—only five of which existed. The remaining titles were fabricated by an AI model.” We have seen these issues in the past. A Law firm stating cases that never existed is still my favourite at present. We get in continuation “Within hours, readers exposed the errors across the internet, sharply criticizing the newspaper’s credibility. This incident wasn’t merely embarrassing—it starkly highlighted the growing risks publishers face when AI-generated content isn’t rigorously verified.” We can focus on the setting about the high cost of AI errors, but as soon as the cost becomes too high, the staters of this error will get a Trump card and settle out of court, with the larger population being set in the dark on all other settings. But it goes into a nice direction “These missteps reinforce the reality that AI hallucinations and fact-checking failures are a growing, industry-wide problem. When editors fail to catch mistakes before publication, they leave readers to uncover the inaccuracies. Internal investigations ensue, editorial resources are diverted and public trust is significantly undermined.” You see, verification is key here and all of them are guilty. There is not one exception to this (as far as I can tell), there was a setting I wrote about this in 2023 in ‘Eric Winter is a god’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/07/05/eric-winter-is-a-god/) there on July 5th, I noticed a simple setting that Eric Winter (that famous guy from the Rookie) played a role in The Changeling (with the famous actor George C. Scott). The issue is two fold. The first is that Eric was less than 2 years old when the movie was made. The real person was Erick Vinther (playing a Young Man(uncredited)) This simple error is still all over Google, as I see it, only IMDB has the true story. This is a simple setting, errors happen, but in over 2 years that I reported it, no one fixed this. So consider that these errors creep into a massive bulk of data, personal data becomes inaccurate, and these errors will continue to seep into other systems. The fact that Eric Winter at some point sees his biography riddled with movies and other works where his memory fades under the guise of “Did I do this?”. And there will be more, as such verification becomes key and these errors will hamper multiple systems. And in this, I have some issues on the setting that Forbes paints. They give us “This exposes a critical editorial vulnerability: Human spot-checking alone is insufficient and not scalable for syndicated content. As the consequences of AI-driven errors become more visible, publishers should take a multi-layered approach” you see, as I see it, there is a larger setting with context checking. A near impossible setting. As people rely on granularity, the setting becomes a lot more oblique. A simple  example “Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out a set of values is, relative to the average (mean) of those values.” That is merely one version, the second one is “This refers to the error in a compass reading caused by magnetic interference from the vessel’s structure, equipment, or cargo.” 

Yet the version I learned in the 70’s is “Standard deviation, the offset between true north and magnetic north. This differs per year and the offset rotates in eastern direction in English it is called the compass deviation, in Dutch the Standard Deviation and that is the simple setting on how inaccuracies and confusions are entered in data settings (aka Meta Data) and that is where we go from bad to worse. And the Forbes article illuminates one side, but it also gives rise to the utter madness that this StarGate project will to some extent become. Data upon data and the lack of verification. 

As I see it, all these firms relying on ‘their’ version of AI and in the bowels of their data are clusters of data lacking any verification. The setting of data explodes in many directions and that lack works for me as I have cleaned data for the better pat of two decades. As I see it dozens of data entry firms are looking at a new golden age. Their assistance will be required on several levels. And if you doubt me, consider builder.ai, backed my none other than Microsoft and they were a billion dollar firm and in no time they had the expected value of zero. And after the fact we learn that 700 engineers were at the heart of builder.ai (no fault of Microsoft) but in this I wonder how Microsoft never saw this. And that is merely the start. 

We can go on on other firms and how they rely on ai for shipping and customer care and the larger setting that I speculatively predict is that people will try the stump the Amazon system. As such, what will it cost them in the end? Two days ago we were given ‘Microsoft racks up over $500 million in AI savings while slashing jobs, Bloomberg News reports’, so what will they end up saving when the data mismatches will happen? Because it will happen, it will happen to all. Because these systems are not AI, they are deeper machine learning systems optionally with LLM (Large Language Modules) parts and as AI are supposed to clear new data, they merely can work on data they have, verified data to be more precise and none of these systems are properly vetted and that will cost these companies dearly. I am speculating that the people fired on this premise might not be willing to return, making it an expensive sidestep to say the least. 

So don’t get me wrong, the Forbes article is excellent and you should read it. The end gives us “Regarding this final point, several effective tools already exist to help publishers implement scalable fact-checking, including Google Fact Check Explorer, Microsoft Recall, Full Fact AI, Logically Facts and Originality.ai Automated Fact Checker, the last of which is offered by my company.” So here we see the ‘Google Fact Check Explorer’, I do not know how far this goes, but as I showed you the setting with Eric Winter has been there for years and no correction was made. Even as IMDB doesn’t have this. I stated once before that movies should be checked against the age the actors (actresses too) had at the time of the making of the movie. And flag optional issues, in the case of Eric Winter a setting of ‘first film or TV series’ might have helped. And this is merely entertainment, the least of the data settings. So what do you think will happen when Adobe or IBM (mere examples) releases new versions and there is a glitch setting these versions in the data files? How many issues will occur then? I recollect that some programs had interfaces built to work together. Would you like to see the IT manager when that goes wrong? And it will not be one IT manager, it will be thousands of them. As I personally see it, I feel confident that there are massive gaps in the assumption of data safety of these companies. So as I introduced a term in the past namely NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) and that is the setting that these companies need to fix on. Because there is a setting that even I cannot foresee in this. I know languages, but there is a rather large setting between systems and the systems that still use legacy data, the gaps in there are (for as much as I have seen data) decently massive and that implies inaccuracies to behold. 

I like the end of the Forbes article “Publishers shouldn’t blindly fear using AI to generate content; instead, they should proactively safeguard their credibility by ensuring claim verification. Hallucinations are a known challenge—but in 2025, there’s no justification for letting them reach the public.” It is a fair approach, but there is a rather large setting towards the field of knowledge where it is applied. You see, language is merely one side of that story, the setting of measurements. As I see it (using an example) “It represents the amount of work done when a force of one newton moves an object one meter in the direction of the force. One joule is also equivalent to one watt-second.” You see, cars and engineering use Joule in multiple ways, so what happens when the data shifts and values are missed? This is all engineer and corrector based and errors will get into the data. So what happens when lives are at stake? I am certain that this example goes a lot further than mere engineers. I reckon that similar settings exist in medical application, And who will oversee these verifications?

All good questions and I cannot give you an answer, because as I see it, there is no AI, merely NIP and some tools are fine with Deeper Machine Learning, but certain people seem to believe the spin they created and that is where the corpses will show up and more often than not in the most inconvenient times. 

But that might merely be me. Well time for me to get a few hours of snore time. I have to assassinate someone tomorrow and I want it too look good for the script it serves. I am a stickler for precision in those cases. Have a great day.

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