March 6, 2014 · 02:47

A body blow to gaming

We are about to start Q2 of 2014 and the news is not good for Sony. Thief is about to be seen as below average by several reviewers (a score of 60 from Gamespot at http://www.gamespot.com/reviews/thief-review/1900-6415675/). Now, Thief might be an acquired taste, but its following has been fierce fully loyal. The issues and the ‘good’ looks that were given at the E3 are now getting slammed on several levels by several review sites; in this regard I gave it a score of 75%. I initially gave it 80%, but as the blatant levels of sloppiness became visible after completing the game, the score dwindled a little.

People might think that it does not matter, but consider the game release claims that Sony made for 2014. It only takes up to 4 games under achieving the gamer’s expectations, for a console to lose a massive following. Yes, Sony is at present happy with the fact that 6 million are sold, but how long will that continue when the released games do not hold up to scrutiny?

I personally thought AC4 was a lacking game on several fronts, and thief might have given pressure and serious nervousness to UBI-Soft. This is however no longer the case considering the score Thief got. Yet, they are not out of the woods yet. Watchdogs was initially a first day console game, which is now supposed to be out by the end of Q2. If they do not meet expectations, Sony will enter Q3 with its PS4 having several flops, that is a massively bad result for something that is supposed to save Sony. Before you think I am Sony bashing with some Xbox-One motive, then think again, I willingly choose Sony and I am hoping that they will get their ‘game’ in order, as one more flop could have an majority of ‘console undecided’ people running towards Microsoft’s Xbox-One. When we see quotes like “Thief’s main story ultimately goes nowhere” and “Thief rarely captures the right sense of risk, however, which in turn reduces the sense of reward” should give many gamers cause for concern, especially with an icon title like Thief.

This is in my mind however, the consequence of a larger issue. I have noted it before on several occasions and again I state that the addition of what some laughingly refer to as ‘Business Intelligence‘ to the gaming industry might be seen as the main cause of several failed titles in the last year alone. Whether it was to hatch onto an established branding, because a certain deadline had to be met or because budgetary needs (which is actually a more valid reason), outstripped in the end the legendary status a game could have gotten, is now left with score like ‘average’ or ‘fair’ and many will now try to solve the revenue issues through subscriptions and micro transactions.

So, we could in the near future see the status: “Gaming is dead, long live……whatever!”

This is no way for gaming to go down. This is not just about setting up the IP of a brand, or just branding in general; this is about the pure lack of visionaries in gaming!

Is it a fair statement to make, even if it is only my view?

Consider what a game costs, for that we want to see something pretty spectacular, but overall, the value for money is no longer given by the creator, but by an analyst and a marketeer, who both seem to be oblivious to the gaming condition of the gamer. They look at branding, profitability and in the end it will all be about micro transactions.

In the gaming industry, I am a devoted RPG fan. So, I have little interest in HALO, GTA and a few other games, which is fair enough. There are plenty of gamers liking them, but overall, consider how many hours you actually play a game. Will it be worth it? Make no mistake, I do enjoy a decent multiplayer and I have played many many hours on Mass Effect 3 multiplayer mode. In my view it is the best multiplayer experience I have ever had. God of War Ascension is another game where the multiplayer is a great experience. There we see the additional part that these levels are quite unique, so that just adds to it. These games have a certain level of playability which makes multiplayer a delight. Something UBI-Soft never figured out. When I start on level 1, and Assassins Creed (2/3/4) gives me a ranked match where I end up against people from level 51, something is definitely wrong and the fun to play multiplayer is soon diminished. Another mess they did not solve in 4 iterations of the game.

So as we see Sony move forward on PS4, they will depend on good games to remain the top player. Many of the games we expected in Q1 2014 (as mentioned in Nov 2013), have been delayed. That makes for unhappy gamers. Now, in all honesty, every game is likely to have some delay, but when we see a delay of three quarters (Watchdogs) there will be cause for alarm. Now, we see that not just the delay, but the diminished power punch that a disappointing game brings is still a fear on the mind of many. No matter what Sony does, if Titanfall truly delivers on the Xbox-One, then Sony will have a first fear to deal with, because it takes one good game to make a gamer reconsider. That was clearly shown when Metal Gear Solid: Guns of the Patriot was released on the PS3. Even now, 6 years later it can still be regarded as one of the most perfect games ever to be released on the PS3. Here I agree with Gamespot who named the game as ‘technically flawless‘! It sold almost 6 million copies, which is an impressive result, especially as the action adventure is not for everyone. Analysts stated that this game would be the reason for increased console sales, so as high scoring PS4 games remain absent; will Titanfall be a first step changing the direction of gamers? For me it is hard to say. The first worry is that Gamespot had no preview, or review on their site, which is weird as the game will be released in one week time. Titanfall is not my cup of tea, so I have no view one way or the other, yet overall as the next-gen consoles are supposed to be the hot item, the absence of top games on the PS4 will have an impact.

Should you have another view (which is fair enough), then also consider the following, when you go to a site like EB games, with the ‘top’ titles at the top of the screen on the PS4 page, only one is for sale now (Thief) the others are all preorders, is that not a little weird?

Personally I do hope that PS4 will win the console war (I am slightly biased here), but they will need the games to make it work and the next possible top game is still 2 weeks away.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Gaming, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

March 4, 2014 · 15:13

Israel stands alone

I wish I had better news, but the situation as it deteriorates in the Middle East, might in the next immediate period give more pressure and dangers to the state of Israel then anyone realises. Is it more than Israel thinks it is? That is a little harder to see, but I feel certain that their bad case scenario had included options even worse than I would be able to foresee.

This is not just on the issues raised by the USA, or EU as published (at http://news.sky.com/story/1217922/us-and-eu-urged-to-halt-weapon-sales-to-israel), it is also the issues which will hit Israel as we see a deteriorating war theatre in Syria. When we see “Amnesty International criticises what it calls Israel’s ‘callous disregard for human life’ in its handling of Palestinian protests against occupation“. Is that the actual truth? Over 4000 attacks from Palestine missiles and mortars in the last 5 years against Israeli civilian targets, making almost 70 attacks a month for 5 years, so basically a little over two attacks a day, every day for 5 years (even more in the 5 years before that). These were almost all fired at civilian targets, which makes the Amnesty International report a coloured one. I am not just writing this from the back of the room. I have been there, I have seen the consequences and people that I know of have been in direct danger because of the acts of Hamas, Hezbollah and the groups acting in the Sinai. So, this is not just a far away from my bed situation (Dutch expression). When even today in 2014 see that the Palestine’s are stating “The Palestinian Authority adamantly rejects Israel’s right to exist” on a daily basis and the fact that this is still shown and proven at every turn. Is it a surprise that the tensions are not and will not be broken any day soon?

The second issue comes from State Secretary John Kerry, as mentioned by Sky News (at http://news.sky.com/story/1205342/israel-boycott-warning-dismissed-by-netanyahu),where we see the quote  “US Secretary of State John Kerry had suggested that a failure of peace talks with the Palestinians would accelerate calls for a ‘de-legitimisation campaign’ against the Jewish state”

Is that so? The issue, as it has been known for decades is all about Israel’s right to exist. NOT ONE government has been able to swing this in favour of Israel EVER! So Mr Kerry, are you sure you want to be the one that is known as the person who acquired the label ‘the failed superpower USA‘ as we see not just the issues in Israel, but also the failings of campaigns involving Afghanistan, Syria and now the Ukraine? I am not stating that the last two should have been about military intervention, but diplomacy did not work. As the Syrian issues keep on escalating, the dangers that escalations move south of the Syrian border is not out of the question, when that happens the dangers for Israel will quickly increase. Even though many parties do not want the Syrian government to completely fall and left in the hands of several smaller extreme hands, the dangers, even if Syria moves on without President Assad will mean that pressures towards Lebanon will mean that the extremists now attacking Israel on a regular basis will end up with a lot more resources then they have at present. As we look at the mentioning of economic sanctions, the handling of it as we see in the newspapers about economic sanctions have for the most never ever worked.

Cuba is still there, even though it has been under massive economic pressure since 1962, the economic pressures against North Korea since 1950 also failed. They are still there; these two have nowhere near the resources of Russia, so how will the sanctions against Russia ever work? In addition, Russians are acquiring businesses all over Europe; the acquisition of Siebel in the Netherlands is one of the most visible ones lately. How will sanctions work in these cases?

This is all linked to Israel, let me get to that.

As we see the power of government (the US in particular) fall back because it has no power to stop businesses in many ways, we will see that governments are slowly losing power on a global scale (so not just the US). To some degree it will all be about the business and the local religion they depend upon, this evidence is seen as we see watch where big business remains and how it can deliver its projected forecast. This has been fact since the early 90’s. Now, as Europe needs and desires to do business all over the Middle-East, they will unite their view according to the need of their business. This does not make Muslims or Christians anti-Semites, yet the acts of individuals have been, especially when lacking moral and cultural insight, anti-Semite in nature. As long as the business makes that they need to achieve, they can get away with most acts of pro-profits. This places Israel, with a unique national religion in a dangerous place. When we see the article at http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jews-reluctantly-abandon-swedish-city-amid-growing-anti-semitism-1.301276, in addition the news at http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4456356,00.html shows another side of one of the most liberal nations in the world. This is not a statement against Sweden, but the fact that this level of hatred goes on, even today, in several nations gives rise to the acts of Israel. Until the ‘right to exist’ is met by all its neighbours, and the Middle-East at large, this will go on and on. If anyone wants to make a statement on how it was ‘theirs’ in the past, then remember that the tribes of Israel were not just in Israel, they held parts of Palestine as well as a sizeable chunk of Syria as well. As this place became ‘slave shopping central‘ for both the Egyptians and the Romans, that area went from all to naught within 5 generations. So what is a solution? Well, as for the issues at hand, we could request two payments one from Egypt for 25 trillion and one from Italy for almost 50 trillion, not to mention the damage the Jewish population suffered from fanatical German acts. I am certain that Israel will make a deal to some extent. So if we go back long enough the issue could be settled, but the involved parties have nowhere near the funds to make restitution. In the end, is there a solution? It seems that there is, but not a peaceful one, not until the involved parties are willing to sit down and actually talk. In that regard, the US intervention has little or no power to hold any of it up. It is, especially at present, willing to sit at any table for economic reasons (not that this is a bad thing), but Israel knows that whatever deal will be gotten, it will not end good for Israel, the US knows this, it has always known this and at present, in their economic state of destitution they cannot afford to care about it. This is partially why the entire Iran situation will not be accepted by Israel, nor should it be by many nations. Be aware, I am not speaking out against Iran in this matter, but the issues as former president Ahmadinejad escalated them can easily happen again. Iran is the third largest nation in terms of oil reserves and this is why many parties are so adamant to make a deal with Iran (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/31/us-china-iran-zhenrong-idUSBRE9BU03020131231), as China is making new deals for oil, Iran will get an additional incentive of well over 80 billion, which the US is now missing out on. In an age of cash is king, the US is demoted from king to a mere tiny Earl and this is more than upsetting to these high and mighty US oil barons. Their business is wavering. So, as they will push for more and more business, the dangers Israel faces are also increasing. This is not about Hassan Rouhani, who so far is showing and proving to be an international diplomat. Israel fears what comes next in 2021. There is no indication that Hassan Rouhani is anything but a moderate, however the next one might not be like that and anyone who follows and is one step closer to a new Ahmedinejad will give the state of Israel a direct nuclear threat to deal with. They cannot allow for such a dangerous situation. It is all good and nice the things that John Kerry (as State Secretary) claims now, but when things go wrong, he will sit from a distance negotiating for talks whilst Tel Aviv partially glows in the dark. At that point those poor poor Iranians will be willing to talk (after the fact). When, at that point Israel stops existing, the Mediterranean is no longer a viable place and the fallout dangers to the eco systems of Greece, Italy and Spain will be regarded, by the US administration, as unfortunate. When a nation has no options, every step is one too many. Is my assumption a fair one? Consider the acts of former Iranian president Ahmadinejad; consider the acts of Hamas, Hezbollah as well as the Al-Qaeda groups currently in the Sinai. Mohamed Morsi was only just in office when Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood started staging anti-Israel rallies in Cairo.

I feel certain that John Kerry has been aware of all these dangers, as have the members of the state departments all over the world. So, if any solution is ever to exist, then getting the ‘right to exist’ for Israel, will be a mandatory first step.

So when I stated that Israel stands alone, I was not kidding. For those who are eager to deal with the oil states, will have to deal with many who are opposed to the existence of the State of Israel (avoiding stating the term anti-Semitism here). In this era of government bankruptcies, the Cash is King approach is painfully visible and there is no clear solution in sight any day soon.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 4, 2014 · 13:09

What goes up…..

The next blog has been bumped to the next blog, mainly because Sky News was kind enough to show the snivelling cry story (me now playing the world’s smallest violin), by the ACTU secretary Dave Oliver, yes, the text in the background ‘join for a better future‘ reads nice, but the story he is giving is intentional misdirection. Holden and Toyota did not leave overnight (which was discussed in my blog on February 12th called ‘The last Australian car‘), this was planned for a long time, as such, what he now calls ‘the opposition’ was at the centre of this entire mess.

When we hear statements like ‘everything is on the table‘ then that person is already deceiving us all. So let’s take a look at some of the things stated at http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=955273.

“Qantas has asked the government to change the Qantas Sale Act to allow more foreign investment arguing the strings attached hampered its ability to compete on a level playing field with its rivals“, which makes me wonder how this remains an Australian icon to begin with.

“Some aviation analysts argue the best option for Qantas would be to split the company into three separate companies: domestic, international and ancillary services such as the Frequent Flyer program and freight“, which reads a lot like the ‘bad bank’ solutions we have seen all over the global financial sector, which in the end leaves the taxpayers with an unfair bill.

The Australian gave us (at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/pm-failing-australian-workers-on-qantas-actu/story-e6frg95x-1226844413018) the following statements.

the headline is already a first “PM failing Australian workers on Qantas: ACTU“, this is followed by “How did it get to the stage where our Prime Minister won’t even stick up for Australian jobs?” and “Australian unions will meet with Qantas CEO Alan Joyce this week to seek a commitment to minimise job losses, following the airline’s announcement last week it would slash 5000 jobs“.

So, let’s take a look at this all. From the first moment, with all due respect, This Dave Oliver comes across as a man born not too bright and he stopped evolving after birth. Why is this my personal view? You see, one should always keep an eye out for the reasoning. Without that, we have nothing but noise.

First the income side as it was reported by the Herald Sun last September 7th (at http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/qantas-freezes-pay-of-chief-executive-alan-joyce-but-offers-him-1m-in-bonuses-and-shares/story-fni0dcne-1226713613053), where we see the following: “Mr Joyce’s base salary for the year to June remained unchanged at $2.109 million. But a cash bonus of $775,200 and $387,000 worth of deferred share payments bumped the total remuneration package up to $3.3 million for the year. Mr Joyce gave up his bonus the previous year when Qantas reported its first annual loss since privatisation. The airline, which last week reported a wafer-thin full-year net profit of $6 million, said a general freeze on executive management pay would apply over the coming year“.

So basically, an airline, this large, reports (according to the Herald Sun), a full year Net profit, twice the amount the CEO made in a year. So, the income of the CEO was 50% of the NET profit. This was in the era of labor and this is not inviting any clear statements of outrage or disgust? Let us not forget that the tier of high executives would have been less, but still substantial, which in my view becomes that the Net profit of Qantas was in 2013 a lot less than the income of the board of directors alone. which makes us wonder on how 7 high executives are save whilst 5000 jobs are forsaken to other areas. The positive news was 11 days before the Liberals came into office, and within three months, Qantas analysts ‘suddenly’ misplaced (or lost) a quarter of a billion dollars, how convenient. So Mr Dave Oliver, why do you not stop crying and take a long gander towards this obnoxious fact?

It is not the job of the government to provide for free slave labor (through financial incentives to big business for keeping jobs), mainly because this is Australia!

This all takes another tumble when we see the news (at http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/qantas-to-cut-1000-jobs-as-ceo-alan-joyce-takes-pay-cut/story-e6frfq80-1226775800430), where we see the following “Mr Joyce’s $3.3 million pay will be cut by at least 38 per cent this financial year because of the airline’s poor performance – which would leave him with a $2 million pay packet” this was on December 5th 2013, in less than three months they went from plus 6 million to: “Qantas said it expected to report an underlying before tax loss of $250-300 million for the first half of the 2013-14 financial year“, which gives us two points at this precise moment. The first is that in my view, the September report was feigned positivity as we were set up for the bad news blows. When you go from +6 million to minus three hundred million you better believe that we the readers and we the workers are getting played. So at this point Mr ACTU, would you like to please change your view from Australian Icon to Australian joke? When a company makes this fast a tumble, there is clear mis-management, mis-representation and mis-organisation, whilst the labor government was run by Miss-NotAllThatInformed (in those day referred to as ‘prime minister’). So whilst Dave Oliver is presenting under the veil of violins speaks out for all those poor poor workers, he should better realise and change his tune to make it sure that this was bungled by labor, for big business and 5000 workers are about to pay a hefty price for such levels of negligence.

So what about Tony Abbott?

Should a government give out a debt guarantee, whilst there is a decent amount of clear evidence that this money could be lost overnight? It is not for the Australian tax payers to lose this amount of money whilst the Qantas top will walk away with millions and with new foreign investors there is still a likely chance that many jobs will go overseas (why else would they invest in the first place). It is also the case that in that same news message (from December 5th) that former Qantas Group Chief Economist Tony Webber left the message that it was too late to help the ailing airline. Is he correct? I am not sure, but I feel certain that he would know a lot more of the Qantas finances then either the ACTU, the ATO or the other interested parties in forcing the hand of government to sign a debt guarantee. The fact that Tony Webber is now managing director of Webber Quantitative Consulting and Associate Professor at the University of Sydney Business School, gives more weight to the value of his statements then the feigned spoken outrage from some of the other players (even if he is not a UTS professor) ;-).

This situation as we ‘suddenly’ see the Qantas debacle was not grown overnight. This has been a failing business dimension for well over a year, because $300,000,000 is not lost overnight, it had to have been known for some time.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 1, 2014 · 18:05

Hot air for the Ukraine

That was the first thought I had when I saw the news from several angles, when we consider the responses from Chuck Hagel, John Kerry, Viktor Yanukovych and a few others. The Americans were (as expected) all about keeping an eye on what Russia does. My first question could be ‘then what?‘.

This would be a fair question as we have seen what happens when ‘the line gets crossed‘ as President Obama mentioned. Basically nothing happened in the end. There will be rattling of sabres and after that people create some diplomatic summit in a luxury place and in the end nothing really changes. If you doubt that, then ask the Syrians. In the end President Assad needed time and time he got and plenty of it. In that regard consider last week’s NY Times (at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/middleeast/un-orders-both-sides-in-syria-to-allow-humanitarian-aid.html), so after several weeks the peace talks ended in failure. Be honest, was there ever a decent chance of a good outcome? This was all about delaying for President Assad, and as such he seems to have won. So, what will happen to the Ukraine?

The Ukraine is not like that, I know, but in the end, does that matter? The US is too weak, it has no reserves left, in addition, there is a growing pile of evidence that big business, not the politicians or the legislative branch are in charge of what happens in America. Feel free to doubt me, but consider the largest employer Wal-Mart. Consider that the owners are multi billionaires and that their staff members need food stamps and financial support just to survive. Did you hear me? This is not about the unemployed, but the workers who still need that level of support and the taxpayer gets those bills, not the employer. This is in my mind a level of clear evidence that the politicians as well as the legislative branch of the US government have failed its citizens. So, they are going to mess with Russia, just as the military has announced massive cuts and downsize plans? Who is kidding who here?

Now on the honourable representative players in this game called John Kerry and Chuck Hagel. I am not attacking them. They are representing their government, but are they speaking their mind and heart? They likely are and they are not happy about any of the issues currently rising, but they are unlikely able to make a true impact at present. You cannot spend money from a budget that is no longer there. Basically, as this administration was idle for over three years to tackle big business, to tackle spending habits and to hunt down tax evaders, the economic trinity at large, the US is pretty much bankrupt, which means they cannot pay for the fuel to make the war engine go forward. It will run out of fuel before it can truly engage a theatre of upcoming war. It is not a good thing, but it is what it is, so at this time it pretty much sucks to be the US Secretary of Defence!

But this is not just about America, many might ‘like’ this US bashing, but that is not what this is. Consider the words of Peter Stano “Peter Stano, Spokesperson for European Neighbourhood Policy Commissioner Stefan Fule, stated the European Commission (EC)’s ‘door remains open’ for Ukraine. The EC’s policy is very open, transparent and predictable, he said. The EC’s offer is tabled, he continued further. The EC offers highly important EU neighbours the opportunity to come closer to the EU with political association and economic integration, he explained“

Consider the NY Times from January 2nd 2014 (at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/02/business/international/the-euro-adds-latvia-but-further-growth-is-uncertain.html) “Those include achieving a deficit of 3 percent of gross domestic product and keeping debt to 60 percent of the annual gross domestic product.” This is about its newest member Latvia. You can read two parts here; one is to lower the deficit to 3%, which might be a good achievement. Yet at http://www.kase.gov.lv/uploaded_files/2010/SSD/news_release_2014-A-0109_011.pdf we see the mention “R&I believes that real GDP will continue to grow around 4% on the back of a recovery in the European economy.“

Really, who is buttering who’s bread and where (more important, who owns the butter to begin with). This is a massive amount of iterated bad news management I am appalled that the PRESS is not more active in finding out the ‘real’ truth here. Consider a 2013 report from the EC (at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2013/pdf/ee3_en.pdf) and consider that the numbers on page 47 is up to 2011. So, the 2012 numbers are not even there for a 2013 report. This is all about marketing, all about as they state “Overall, a broad-based look at underlying factors suggests that sufficiently strong conditions are in place for Latvia to be able to maintain a robust and sustainable convergence path in the medium term“, which makes this 55 page paper a sales pitch.

How is this connected?

That is the question isn’t it! It is not about Latvia, or the Ukraine. This is about the EEC and their approach to ‘some kind of a future‘. This is all good, but these events are about setting economic prosperity for a few EEC bigwigs. As they add members, as deficits are still not met in several nations and debts keep on rising, the taxpayers will soon face a harsh reality and it is a bigger one than they bargained for. On my side, there is also a view. Am I comparing apples to pears?
Yes, to some extent I am. The issue is that the EEC is not a vendor of apples or pears, they are dealing in fruit and we all get thrown into the same trog. Russia seems adamant that the Ukraine does not enter the same trog. It prefers its own trog to the EEC one, which might looks nicer but has the same stale grub in the end.

So when we see the sabre rattling from both sides, make sure that you all realise that this is not about the Ukrainians, their choices their future. It is for the Ukrainians, but the other parties are engaging for one reason, their economies! It is about the economic futures of others. Will this all bring prosperity to the Ukraine and its people? Not until the EEC and America end up with a much better economy, which require these governments (all of them) to get their budgets in order. Until then they are showing themselves as some sort of hedge fund dealers. You might remember how that ended up in 2004 and 2008. Now, it is no longer about de-valuated pieces of paper, now it will all be about people and whoever will be the ‘last’ nation left standing. We need to get out of that rat race and real quickly too!

That part becomes more and more visible when we see the latest from Sky News “Russia is ready to help Ukraine as it seeks to stave off economic collapse, US Secretary of State John Kerry says after talking with his Russian counterpart” (at http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=954470). In addition “Ukraine owes $US13 billion in state debt payments this year – a massive sum in a country where state reserves have shrunk to less than $US18 billion” gives some level of evidence to my views. Another government had been spending money they never had to begin with. When smaller economies fall over, how long until the larger ones take a tumble (especially as they add on new in deficit grown members), because if these issues do not change that will be the clear terminal result, no matter what sales pitch a hedge fund call centre operator calls you with.

In that regard there is an interesting paper at http://www.project-bridge.eu/datoteke/Actions2012/BRIDGE-ANALYSIS%20OF%20THE%20EU-UKRAINE%20RELATIONS.pdf. Denys Kuzmin and Iryna Maksymenko wrote an interesting piece in 2012. Not sure how much I can agree with (as I was never an economic), but it reads like this is all about a possible future for the Ukraine, not about keeping the EEC alive. That side is getting less and less likely, as we see the growing influence from Nigel Farage, Marie Le-Penn, Bernd Lucke and Geert Wilders in their respective governments. Whatever will happen after that will have long term consequences for all the EEC players, even though many ignore these dangers, the dangers will not go away any day soon because that is the consequence of a weak economy, the people choose and currently they are very afraid for their personal futures. So is Ukraine better off with Russia or with the EEC? I actually have no idea, but consider that Russian Commerce is currently buying up commerce all over Europe like for example the Dutch Jeweller ‘Siebel’. The chips are not just changing hands, they are now moving out of local owner’s hands into the hands of foreign corporations. I am not talking about the big boys, they have been in some international hands for a long time, we are now talking about smaller shops where all the moms and pops go.  Consider that these places are no longer held by some oil sheik (like large portions of London), or certain American multi-national groups. Now Russian companies are moving in (through legal methods) and taking control. Who would have guessed this event 10 years ago? Perhaps it is time to ignore these high boasting Wall Street analysts, it is time for actual data, not have baked forecasts to take control of budget goals and government expenditures.

For those wondering about the hot air reference in the title, this is a reference to the windy city of Chicago. The windy city was not about the fresh Canadian air, but about their politicians (filled with hot air). The escalating issue as they are shown in the Ukraine is now in my view all about politicians and spokespeople. For the last 8 years politicians sat on their hands and spokespeople did whatever they could to divert the eyes of politicians, politicians for governments, spokespeople for economic interested parties. If you doubt my words then look at Darfur, Bagdad, Nigeria and Syria, all colossal failures. The politicians failed, grabbing for some ‘sanction solution’ that has never actually worked. Now their credibility of strength is gone. Big Business has been pushing for the lowest and cheapest option for so long; it has made the rich richer, the poor with less, whilst the rich avoid taxation by the billions and after half a decade they are still not dealt with, whilst many taxation coffers are less than empty. Consider the words of Mariana Chilton, an associate professor at Drexel University’s School of Public Health: “If they wanted to address poverty and hunger in this country, then they would pay a living wage, and they would make sure that their workers had good benefits and good family leave for when families have children, etcetera” (at http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/business-solution-war-on-poverty-lyndon-johnson)

These two groups talk to all but they do not really communicate. In the end, when it all falls over they only have themselves to blame and end up blaming everyone except themselves, whilst at the same time they will leave the taxpayer with the cost of it all.

In the end, Russia can do to Ukraine (read Crimea region) whatever it likes, because the west currently has no real actionable options left.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 26, 2014 · 12:42

Fearing gays

I had to pause for a moment to see what the impact was on a law so unjust and in its foundation so evil that the impact will not be clearly seen for some time. What happened?

President Yoweri Museveni has signed into law making it illegal to be homosexual. The Uganda Anti-Homosexuality Act, 2014 (Anti-Homosexuality-Act-2014) is now a fact in Uganda. When a person has been successfully prosecuted for the first time the consequence would be incarceration in prison for up to 14 years, after that a person could be jailed for life.

This is not all, this morning it got to be a lot worse. A tabloid named ‘Red Pepper’ released the names of what they call the top 200 Homo’s. There is little validity to their act. One might say that this is the act of a closet case individual, what kind of closet case he is, remains the question at present.

The issue gets to be worse and worse by the hour. As Gays are hunted and prosecuted all over Uganda, whilst at the mean time people claim that this makes their children safer, we see a strange escalation. It is catching me unaware because other than the hypocrite stand many Americans have, the prosecution we see now in Uganda is not unlike the prosecutions we have seen in Russia. The quote “fail to be attracted to all these beautiful women and be attracted to a man” is also something that must be considered. So what about Lesbians? They do love their women, are they safe? Nope! The act states “An Act to prohibit any form of sexual relations between persons of the same sex“, which means that they are in the same dangerous boat at present. The issue as Yahoo News stated it in the quote “Homophobia is widespread in Uganda, where American-style evangelical Christianity is on the rise.” This gives us pause to think does it not? American style Christianity! This takes another turn when we look at the following facts.

This view can also be seen at http://digitaljournal.com/news/religion/us-evangelicals-helped-write-draconian-uganda-anti-gay-bill/article/364543 where we see the quote “This is a piece of legislation that is needed in this country to protect the traditional family here in Africa, Bahati said”

If that is true, then who is this Bahati? That part is found in the second quote. “Bahati is a member of ‘The Family’ also known as ‘The Fellowship’, a secretive and powerful U.S.-based evangelical sect that has been sending money and missionaries to African nations, including Uganda, to promote anti-gay public sentiment and legislation.”

So, if America is all about the freedom of speech and the truth, then who is behind this? As we find this info, we need to take another look at this ‘family’. NPR gives us some information (at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120746516). So even if the book exposes a group of sanctimonious Republicans at the centre of this, there is a side we should expose. Because if the funds are used for discrimination and prosecution, there should be legal consequences, even if this is happening outside of the US. It was MSNBC who gave us that scoop yesterday (at http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/religious-freedom-or-discrimination). It is interesting to see these events unfold, especially as we see a lack of visibility on the background by many of the larger newspapers. As the ‘Red Pepper’ is so bent on treating the Gays as a danger, publishing a top 200 list, then perhaps all other tabloids have a sworn duty to name, shame and illuminate the people behind this push for discrimination. when people on a global scale see the names like Senator Sam Brownback (R., Kansas) as well as Representative Joe Pitts (R., Pennsylvania) and the many others, on how they are funding prosecution of people, whilst in the NY Times we see this quote in regards to Senator Brownback “In the Senate from 1996 to 2011, he vigorously opposed abortion, promoted low taxes and less government, and worked against the genocide in Sudan, which won him praise from some liberals“, so basically he’ll oppose genocide when it is not against the gay population.

So as we see these facts emerge, we must also look at the additional factors. The Netherlands stopped aid to Uganda, as did Norway and Denmark. It is now up to the US and Canada, as well as all other nations giving aid to Uganda to stop doing that as well. I wonder how steady this law remains when Uganda loses out on billions in aid programs. No matter how wealthy this so called Family is, it cannot support a multibillion drain on their own resources. There is also another side. As other tabloids give visibility to the members of the family, they should also consider giving visibility and naming those involved with the creation of ‘red pepper’. If these people are so active to facilitate a hunt on homosexuals, which has already resulted in fatalities, the people have a right to know, who the facilitators are. We have a right to know who is behind it all; we all should be allowed to see their names. “What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander“, so what does the discrimination support pyramid look like?

In all this I kept on thinking of the term “Separation of church and state“, if anything, these events as portrayed clearly show that America, for an above minor extent is following the foundation of the “Support for power of the church through the assistance of the state“. This is some boast, but in a two party system like we see in the United states, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and Spain, the power that those not in power (the shadow government), still wields a massive amount of power to do the things that some churches, as they are governed by tiny minded people want to achieve.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 25, 2014 · 11:14

What’s in a list?

I was confronted with a phrase the other day. It was about the Freebie top 5. As I never got married (my mother in law does not have any children), I never considered a list like that. Perhaps it is the benefit of remaining single. Yet, the idea was fun. So I made a top 5. Are these women the ones I want to have sex with the most, or are they the most beautiful women? I wonder if we sometimes can tell the difference honestly within ourselves. That what we desire is tempting in many ways. Can we label a woman as the most beautiful without desiring her carnally?

But then I thought, why stop at those freebies (call me crazy for thinking beyond sex)? It was at this point I started to consider other kinds of Freebies. In my situation, as I consider the reasons of health, there is a magnetic power at play when you consider the past. So I started the food freebie top 5 for London. It is one of places a person never stops missing.

Here is the list:

  1. Shakespeare’s Head, Great Marlborough Street
  2. Wagamama, Streatham street
  3. Sarastro, Drury lane
  4. Royal India, Stoke Newington
  5. The Waterway, Formosa Street

I am not even sure if they all still exist. They weren’t chosen for prices or whatever reason you want to eat free at these places. I have memories at all of them and they are all better because the food was really good. You can try to create some gastronomic memory by eating at some award winning place and as such you can deceive yourself. In my mind, some foods are better because they were shared, some foods were better because of the day, the hunger you have and just the luck of getting a really good plate of food.

Shakespeares Head was on a Saturday. I was in London for a while and after walking around Regent Street, Oxford Street and a few other streets, me was getting mighty thirsty! I remember seeing the Gap on Regent Street and a sign. I followed the sign into the alley and decided to take one more gander on my shoes, I took a look at the shops and noticed the entrance to the ‘temple of goodness’ (some refer to such places as ‘bars’). I headed in and yes, my holy thoughts came to bare. They had Old Peculiar. I had two pints and felt so much better. Two of them buggers on an empty stomach and you know the noise of hunger will set in and soon thereafter I learned that they had a restaurant upstairs. I sat down and my eyes saw the option of a piece of Bambi (more commonly known as Venison). It was the beginning of a beautiful evening. My wallet was decently lighter (it was not too expensive) and in all it was a great day. Not sure if sex with the number one on my Freebie top 5 would have made it better in any way, but we can all dream can’t we?

Wagamama is another matter. It is not the case on how we eat, what we need to eat, or what we would like to eat. When you go to any of the Wagamama places you get live around two words ‘Simply Delicious’. The places are so Spartan, barren and the benches are devoid of comfort. It is you, in a well lit room with your choice, which was the best experience! Simplicity in food, delicious and glorious food. My choice, even today remains a seafood ramen with sometimes a few side dishes and a bottle of cold Asahi. The hardship of work washes away from you, the delight of good food takes over. I am even willing to bet that this food alone in silence remains better than shared with blabbering and chatting others. After my first exposure around 1998 I had no idea I could get so addicted to a good bowl of Ramen, I am just happy that they have one in Sydney as well!

Most other places were found in similar ways. I was just in the neighbourhood. That is the magical side of London; a good diner is always just around the corner. Letting good food to be the base of a created memory is one of the most perfect ones. It is about you and the choice you made. If I had not seen the ‘Drury Lane’ sign and I didn’t remember the song, I would not have turned right, hoping to see some Muffin shop and I never would have stopped at Sarastro’s (which is not a Muffin shop). The mind is a curious thing at time! Make no mistake, I have entered the wrong place more than once, even in London, but the fact that after half a century, I still consider a London personal food top 5 is not a coincidence. London is the place to be, for more than one reason. Perhaps at some point I get to see it one more time!

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

February 23, 2014 · 15:54

Is it a scam?

We are all curious by nature. Some facts we want to see, some facts we want to read about, some make us search what is behind it all. This is our natural status to question things. It is our natural way marketing has relied on for decades and it has worked in many ways for all forms of events.

One of the most successful marketing ploys I have ever seen came from the early 80’s. Somehow over the term of a few months in bus booths and on outside walls we would see the spray painted term ‘Penguin Park’. No one had any idea and we all wanted to know what it was. We all started to ask questions and it went viral without needing the internet (which was still a DARPA concept at that time). The buzz was all over the place and within 5 months we found out. A Dutch DJ named Tjarda Leegsma had an idea, he made sure there was a buzz and when his nightclub ‘Penguin Park‘ opened, there was a massive queue to get into his place. That queue would remain for many months when it started. It was the coolest place to be. The music was the hottest, the drinks were the coldest and a Rotterdam night club legend was born. A clear marketing triumph!

Now, many rely on the internet. In this case I am looking at the smoke that is forming around a site called ‘GetMoreIncome’. Here we see a known approach. It is all about implying issues like ‘what you could’, what your lifestyle could be and so on. But do they deliver? That is the entire question, isn’t it?

Unlike an organisation called AMWAY, we get other questions. When you look for AMWAY information, the issue becomes clear soon enough. The internet is riddled with examples. AMWAY is basically a perfectly legal ‘pyramid’ scheme. The people behind it were sort of brilliant. The more people you know and attract, the bigger your discount bonus (read commission becomes). They are not into some quick expensive sales part. It is the one thing we all need: Household articles. The cleaning chemicals are stated to be good, the nutrition bars do not seem to be too bad, so a multibillion dollar industry is here to stay and all can get a few coins out of it. The verdict is out there, most (over 93%) will never get rich, but they end up having lower shopping bills. Is that a bad thing? I think not.

So what about this ‘GetMoreIncome’?

That is indeed the question. When searching Google and other sources, we see many blogs, and they all seem to be some marketing hit towards and in support of this ‘GetMoreIncome’ and NONE OF THEM give you any clear information. I found two that showed a little more, but there too it was all about carefully phrased mentions. This GetMoreIncome should be regarded (as others state) as an MLM approach (not unlike AMWAY). Yet there is a difference. When we see the quote on their site, which is also all over FOXTEL, we see a problem, the quote “I have been thrilled with the results, having made over $15,000 per month for the past 6 months”, sounds nice, but at what cost? Is that including the dozens of hours of phone costs? You see, the website gives NO information at al. It requires you to register and give your details.

This all becomes interesting when we take the quote by the ACCC “No matter how a business communicates with you—whether it’s through advertising, packaging, online, logos, endorsements or a sales pitch—you have the right to receive accurate and truthful messages about the products and services you buy.”

The little problem as I see it is that you have to sign up to get any type of information. If this is all online and through TV, I say that in my mind, their website has a distinct obligation to clearly inform you online. This becomes a worry especially as there is no clear information anywhere. No mention on who is behind it, who is involved, we get absolutely nothing, just quotes and innuendo.

I also like the implied ploy (read sarcasm). When we see the quote: “I was a former CEO. I left the corporate world behind and have been able to replace my executive income working from home.” Is this the stated person who was in the news as: “a judge in the Reykjavik District Court sentenced, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank, to nine months in prison in December 2012” (at http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-12/iceland-prosecutor-investigates-convicts-bankers-for-financial-crimes) Can you tell, because I cannot. That is the issue with small impersonal quotes; it makes perfect sense that this person needs a work from home income. But is it the same person? How many are on that $12,000 a month income? No one seems to know and no one seems to be looking into it.

In this age of bad economy, when all are looking for a way to make a buck and to make ends meet. There needs to be a level of protection against exploitation. That part seems to have gone missing. If you doubt me (which is always fair enough), then check your own browser. When we seek AMWAY, we see SMH, The Australian. They all had their articles on AMWAY. Some agree with the approach, some do not. Their stance does not matter. AMWAY is not ‘hiding’ in any way (they even have a Wiki page online). When we look at ‘GetMoreIncome’ we see quite the opposite. The papers are not asking any questions, they do not seem to have looked into it in any way. There is no visibility. My question becomes Why not? When someone has the budget to advertise to this extent on FOXTEL we can grasp that this might involve substantial funds. Yet no one seems to be looking into it, get precise information and whatever you find on the web is either a hidden advertisement or a ‘hidden’ promo clip on YouTube.

When a website is all about “do not call us, we’ll mail you!” there is reason for concern, the fact that those who should look into matters like these, don’t seem to be doing so is a bigger worry still.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

February 19, 2014 · 20:45

The bad and the worse

I have had several views in many directions, but two issues are rising that require us to take a critical look at us. Some will agree, some will disagree and many will not know where they stand in these two issues. The first is again about labour, both work and politics.

Of course, it does not help when Bill shorten starts to ‘rant’ on the issues that hit many. The first issue is Alcoa. It is an Aluminum smelter. The first quote is “Aluminium manufacturer Alcoa has contradicted federal government claims that the carbon tax led to the decision to shut the company’s Point Henry smelter and two rolling mills in Geelong and western Sydney” (at http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alcoa-contradicts-joe-hockey-on-reasons-for-smelter-shutdown-20140218-32yir.html)

In addition we see the quote from Bill Shorten where is said “It’s clear that a global oversupply of aluminium, dramatically falling aluminum prices and a high Australian dollar made the continuation of these operations impossible” he said.

Shall we take a small step back to the 12th of February 2013 where we see the following quote (at http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/2/12/resources-and-energy/alcoa-vic-pass-carbon-tax-liability-federal-govt)

“The plan addresses a long-standing issue whereby decades-old agreements between Alcoa and the state government included guarantees of cheap power that left Victoria holding the responsibility for the carbon tax due to an inability to pass on those costs to the aluminum giant.” as well as “Under the deals, the state will pay an increased power price and pass most of that through to Alcoa.”

So, taxation is up, power costs are up and prices are down. Mr Shorten needs to take a hard look at his own party and the shortages of his own Labor government where we see that these issues were known for over a year. The fact that Labor decides to park the issue until after the election means he now needs to remain quiet. Yes, it will be an issue, but for him to nag like a little girl is what happens when his predecessors decided to ignore the issue. The liberals warned about the dangers of the carbon tax, the people were hit massively hard by the carbon tax and now hell is to pay and in my view, the Labor party better foot that bill real quick. This is however not the first instance. In Feb 2012 a similar newscast was made by the Australian. The quote “ALCOA says a carbon tax will make life harder for the company as it reviews the future of its Victorian smelter and the jobs of up to 600 workers.” (at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/national-affairs/tony-abbott-seeks-to-blame-threat-to-alcoa-smelter-jobs-on-carbon-tax/story-fn99tjf2-1226265695323), So Labor was aware for almost 2 years in their reign that the Carbon tax would have a definite influence.

The last line of that article by the Business spectator states “If we got all that right, it is no skin off Alcoa’s nose, is it? But it does take a significant burden off the Victorian taxpayer.” Well, see the result! It was apparently more than just skin of the nose of Alcoa and as such it becomes a different kind of burden on the taxpayers.

The final quote from the Business Spectator article was the one the article started with “Aluminium giant Alcoa and the Victorian state government have designed a complicated set of deals intended to place the liability for rising power costs onto the federal government, according to The Australian Financial Review.” So an American Company is deciding that the rising risk of higher power costs should be carried by our government? Alcoa reported (at http://www.alcoa.com/australia/en/news/releases/2014_01_09_4Q_Earnings.asp) on January 2014 the following:

Revenue of $23.0 billion whilst reporting a Net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.14 per share

Let us not forget that this was a better result than 2012, so Labor KNEW that there were several issues here. When you ‘service’ an American corporation who loses well over 2 billion whilst reporting revenue at 23 billion, there are issues plain and simple. I can agree with some that there claim made by Joe Hockey is not completely accurate (in regards to the carbon tax being the reason), but there is no doubt that at a 2.3 billion dollar loss, the carbon tax might have been the proverbial straw that broke the American Smelter Camel’s back!

We should however not just blame Bill Shorten (even if some feel that this is a more comfortable choice). The Honourable Kim Carr (seen in newscasts bearing a slightly less waxed chin then Bill Shorten) has been in both the foreground and background in more than one occasion. So it is only fair we take his actions in account as well. If we consider my blog article ‘The last Australian car‘ from February 12th we see a few more angles that gives worries to the Labor side of it all, especially in light of the quote “writer Judith Sloan brings a case that Australia has subsidised almost $1900 per vehicle produced.” I mentioned. Is it a good deal when we see these costs and support numbers go out? If we take $2,000 subsidy per car and if we consider that Toyota made 100,000 cars last year, we see the costing of $200 million a year in subsidies, which is a lot more than what the workers would cost every year. So, no matter how good it looks, $200 million is way too large a bill to just handover to a car giant. Is there an alternative? Perhaps the Dutch alternative where VDL Nedcar, who was initially in the news in 2012 with the headline “Mitsubishi Motors to sell NedCar plant for 1 euro to VDL” was the beginning of a new plant, completely refitted for 24 hours a day automated manufacturing. They are now starting to build the new MINI Hatch as per this summer. Is there an opportunity for Australia? Yes!
With an upcoming customer base of 22 million (deserted by Ford, Holden and Toyota), VDL Nedcar might see Australia as the opportunity of a lifetime.

It is however not just the car industry. Sky News is just now showing another iteration of job losses in Victoria (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/19/victoria-promised-federal-funds-as-alcoa-shutdown-adds-to-job-losses), so as Sky News and the Guardian shows us, what I would see as the hollow words of Bill shorten were he states “Spend the money this year, then you can save hundreds of jobs, you can keep excellent world-class naval construction skills in this country.”

Yes, Labor is all about SPENDING money! Let us not forget that the treasurer has been presenting the massive bill that Labor left Australia. The National debt went from 58 billion in 2007 to 257 billion in 2013, all under Labor. So perhaps the irritating quote by Labor leader Bill Shorten on “Tony Abbott and photo opportunities” should change. He should ask how his own party had been spending money they never had in the first place. When we see the $200 million in slave labour bonus (oops, I meant subsidy) for Toyota we have to wonder how long until we are all at the mercy of whoever owns these debt markers (most likely the banks). Labor does not get to nag on the cost of living whilst overspending a little over $11,000 per Australian resident. So when we hear another whinge by Bill Shorten on the deficit, consider that his party had been spending it, making it all a lot harder for many Australians in the upcoming time-span 2014-2016.

The issue of the car makers as well as Alcoa were already known issues in the Labor era and shouting now, whilst not securing these markets (which was in all honesty not a realistic option) is just plain wrong.

In addition there is one strong factor, which has been a known weakness was not dealt with in the Labor era either. It is the energy shortage, which is at the heart of several factors (especially Alcoa). If we accept the ABC transcript (at http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2006/s1796094.htm), then it is only fair that we point part of this blame at the Liberals as well. The issue was known since 2006 (even though Labor got to power in 2007). From several texts, I myself come to the conclusion that something had to be started in 2005, which was not done. Labor ignored it for 2 whole terms making the issue just a lot harder and now the Liberals MUST address this issue. If you are wondering how correct or how wrong I am than just take a look at your Australian energy bill. My bills have grown, whilst remaining a stable user, by over 100% in less than 6 years. This makes it a hike of over 16% a year. In addition, the carbon tax really pushed up the prices. Focusing on cheaper energy would have made a real difference for all parties concerned. In addition, this is not a local issue, it is not a national issue, but it is almost a global issue. The same issue can be seen in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom (very clearly), as well as America. So, it is nice to keep making cars and Aluminum, but if it is not financially viable, the tax payer ends up footing the bill no matter which road we take. So, the dollar, our work conditions and other factors will always remain an issue, but if energy prices are not solved, the one part that will drain any options we might have had. Consider the Business Spectator quote “Point Henry alone represents almost 7 per cent of Victoria’s annual electricity consumption“, so one plant needs THAT much? How could this issue have been ignored for almost 3 administrations? I see that there is a manufacturing issue in Australia, but if the energy prices are not dealt with, we will see a national shift from bad to worse.

Perhaps this will be the moment of innovation; perhaps we should focus on other areas. It only takes one innovator to come with that golden idea that brings income (not costs) to our states. I just hope that politicians on both sides of the aisle will listen to that person.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 14, 2014 · 18:11

A senseless merger?

OK, as stated in earlier blogs, I am not an economist; I do not have any degree in economy! Yet, the information that passed my eyes less than 2 hours before has me slightly baffled. I feel happy that this all is happening in the US and not anywhere in the Commonwealth, yet, the issues as presented makes me wonder when this will hit the Commonwealth borders.

The issue is that Comcast has decided to buy Time Warner Cable. (at http://news.sky.com/story/1210921/comcast-to-buy-time-warner-cable-for-45bn) This is not a huge thing, we are in a civilisation where the hyena and vulture rules, hence mergers happen a dime a dozen and many of them before most have had a chance to enjoy their first coffee. Comcast has 21 million viewers and they are acquiring Time Warner with 11 million viewers. This all seems to make sense. Now for the kicker! This deal will cost Comcast $45 billion dollars. Are we all awake now?

So, 45,000 million divided by 11 gives us a little more than $4000 per viewer. When you consider that Cable TV is set at an average of $30 a month, it could take 133 months just to break even (providing this is all borrowed at 0%, which it is never). So there might be a price hike for all 32 million users of that cable solution.

This is not a chance to become the large bully, as they were described by a consumer group, but you must admit that this is about a lot more than just ‘adding’ new customers. Oh and by the way, this is happening less than three years after Comcast bought NBC for a little less than $14 billion. (at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/comcast-nbc-universal-deal-said-to-be-near-u-s-fcc-approval.html)

The Washington Post has an interesting mention, which was not found at Sky News “It’s worth remembering that Comcast limits how much data its customers are able to stream from the Internet, while Time Warner offers unlimited Internet plans.” (at http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/comcast-time-warner-to-merge-what-happens-to-my-service/2014/02/13/b285f81e-94b4-11e3-83b9-1f024193bb84_story.html), so there are a few more kinks that the customer base might face as the merger goes through.

This all goes far beyond just Cable TV. It involves 30,000 community Wi-Fi spots (amongst several other elements); this entire picture becomes a lot more ‘interesting’ if we take the merger of Comcast and NBC in 2011. This is not just about TV; it is about digital media on an unparalleled level. The merger stipulates the 33 million cable users, yet, does that give a real view of the picture? In the first regard the 45 billion seems ludicrous, yet when we consider community Wi-Fi, broadband (or better stated digital media and networking), it becomes an entirely different picture, especially when we consider the following information from Reuters (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/comcast-ondemand-idUSL2N0JC1S120131202). Now we get an entirely different picture. If we consider this quote “The new technology is meant to give TV networks a way to earn ad dollars from earlier episodes. Currently, most advertisers only pay for ads watched live or within three days after a show airs. That could change if Comcast’s technology, which it developed in partnership with Nielsen, is widely adopted.” and add the following case study (at http://www.sierratechno.com/sites/default/files/Turning%20Data%20into%20Customer%20Insights%20for%20Comcast%20Cable_0.pdf) we now get another view. This is about data, plain and simple, when we consider the value of collected big data in long term planning, having a data warehouse filled with the acts of 33 million people, the 45 billion dollar deal is a steal at twice the price.

It is in my humble opinion really funny to see all these people nag, complain and cry on what the NSA is alleged to be doing, whilst at the same time, their cable provider seems to be tagging them with a ‘value’ price tag for marketing, sales and identification. So what is the cable value of a customer at Hunts point, the Bronx (ZIP:  10474)?

So it seems that Comcast is getting their value on several fields, yet I am still in the dark why Americans are so against the NSA trying to find the people endangering their citizens, whilst giving big business more than twice the powers that many bargained for. It seems that this is not a senseless merger at all, yet do both consumer groups realise the powers their cable provider (slash phone, slash internet provider) ends up with?

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

February 12, 2014 · 19:13

The last Australian car

Australian news has been all over the place. The one thing that is so expected is now on the fritz. Car makers are moving away from Australia. The events have not been out of the air, but what has been a revelation, is the amount of ‘subsidies’ the government had thrown into that direction to begin with. What can we (me, myself and my sources) tell you? First, the four big car makers in Australia were Ford, Holden, Mitsubishi and Toyota.

1. Ford
Last year, Ford announced plans to shut its two Australian plants in October 2016, blaming strong currency as well as high production costs that are hitting the manufacturer. These are all decent reasons, but I personally do not think that this was the whole picture. In addition Ford is cutting 300 jobs this June, which has some worried that Ford will leave before the 2016 announced point of departure.

2. Holden
Holden will be leaving Australia in 2017. Holden’s 2017 exit from its automotive assembly operations in Elizabeth put 13,000 jobs at risk in South Australia. (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/21/holden-exit-2017-sa-needs-330m).

3. Mitsubishi
Mitsubishi shuttered its assembly plant in 2008.

4. Toyota
The world’s largest car maker announced it would stop building cars in Australia by the end of 2017 and would operate in this country only as a sales and distribution company. One additional factor needs to be told, which will have bearing down the road. Namely “Toyota is Australia’s biggest vehicle exporter with around 70,000 of the 100,000-plus cars it builds here being sold in foreign markets” (at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/toyota-to-make-major-announcement/story-fn3dxiwe-1226822810074).

So, by 2017 all carmakers will have bailed out of Australia. Why is this all a big deal?
Many will go directly for the job losses. ABC stated “The Australian Council of Trade Unions has warned the decision could cost as many as 50,000 jobs and wipe $21 billion from the economy as the impact rolls through the associated components sector” (at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-10/toyota-to-pull-out-of-australia-sources/5250114).

Is that all the truth? No! Listening to Labour leader Bill shorten is to hear a lot of misinformation and tweaked wordings. Labour had messed up a lot of issues. In my personal view, I personally think that Bill Shorten is not telling the whole truth because his lips are moving! Let’s not forget that the Liberals are not blameless either, the entire situation has covered both sides of the political aisle. Part of the disgrace can be read in the Business insider (at http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australias-car-industry-out-of-gas-after-billions-in-subsidies-that-were-always-going-to-lead-to-a-dead-end-2013-12) the quote “The car industry is estimated to have received a total of $12 billion in direct subsidies and protections over the past 20 years, including $1.8 billion to Holden in the 11 years to 2012.” is at the heart of this. So basically, 4 car makers have enjoyed an annual $600 million in subsidies a year. This is so off the wall it is not even funny! So our taxation goes to an industry who advertises a dozen times a day that they are so great? How can we take either the car industry, or the government in this regard serious? Let us not forget that Labour was part of this all as well. This also links back to the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership). An interesting link we find is a Japanese site that had the following to say (at http://www.jama-english.jp/publications/tpp_pr_mar2013.pdf) “Japan’s auto market is completely open to other countries’ products. No restrictive customs or other regulations apply to imported vehicles.”

What about the exported vehicle side of all this? If we see it in that light, we see that the TPP is opening up borders as it should, so, that from now on Japan (Toyota and Mitsubishi) as well as USA (Ford and Holden) have a dire reason to return to their home flock. The TPP is giving options to get these brands all home build. Whatever assurances we see now on support and spare parts will soon be removed too (like in the month as they leave). Yes, there will be a few ‘exclusive’ distributors, but as the TPP comes to full power, the entire online experience will not just hold books, movies and video games. they will likely include car parts soon enough. If you doubt this all (which would be fair), then consider the following article (at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/lies-damn-lies-and-car-subsidy-statistics/story-fnbkvnk7-1226824091831#), where writer Judith Sloan brings a case that Australia has subsidised almost $1900 per vehicle produced. If we take that and we add the initial quote I mentioned “Toyota is Australia’s biggest vehicle exporter with around 70,000 of the 100,000-plus cars it builds here being sold in foreign markets” leaves me with the question whether we have been sponsoring that part too.

Is this just the story? No! I think that there is more at play. Even though several sources are not making any mention of it, Ford and General Motors (Holden) are American companies and i think it is not just about removing plants, I personally think that members of the US government have had talks with all the big boys of industry. The American situation cannot continue. If America is to survive (which is slowly becoming less and less likely), they need taxable incomes. To get this done they will have to get the industry back. This will soon become an era of in-sourcing. This is not a new or a novel thought. It had been on the mind of many in 2012 and several articles had been written in 2013 that in-sourcing would grow big in USA. One of the people outspoken in that area had been Charles Fishman. Even though no one took him that seriously, the man appeared to have been right on the money. I personally think that it was the dumb spending sprees by both Japanese and American governments that forced the in-sourcing hand. This is also part of the pressure we saw in December as President Barack Obama spoke out for a quick closure of the TPP (it still think that the pharmaceutical patents are the largest part, but that I will cover at a later date).

Is it all a bad idea? No!

It is for us, but can you blame these two nations for thinking of themselves? It will however be important for us to find another solution. I already mentioned this on December 11th when I wrote about ‘The Holden circus’. If Toyota is leaving Australia too, then my thoughts on this are not just validated to some extent, they become a lot more important to follow up on. A nation of 23 million needs its own car industry. I do believe that it should not be subsidised, the designers just need to become really clever and we the people of Australia will need to support our own industry. If the Japanese and the Americans are all about nationalism (as we have seen on many occasion), then why not the Australians? If Japan and America walk away from a 23 million customer base, why should we keep any level of loyalty towards them?

We must all realise that we need to adjust our focus, we must change our way of working and thinking. We need to walk away from subsidies and sponsoring. We must move to an age where we design in a more clever way, we must bring to market in a brighter way and we must adhere to a different customer collective. The 4 brand approach to 12 models a year is just not sustainable. If these makers claim so, ten let them refund the subsidies!

When the last car is built in Australia, the eager beaver that launches their brand in Australia will start with the audience of a lifetime!

 

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,