Tag Archives: Delphi

The Delphi setting

That is always merely a breath away. At some point the decline of Oracle became a setting and the looting of the place by the Byzantine Constantine the Great contributed to the Demise of this place. But for the most part I have never heard that Oracle became a non issue. It always struck me weird that this never happened. Even today most of us call the givings of the gods ludicrous, or perhaps better as the Catholics might say sacrilege. Yet the power of the Oracle of Delphi has seemingly never waned to zero. 

This is the thought I had today as yesterday the news of Oracle was pushed to the core (mostly at Yahoo Finance) with all kinds of messages. We start with ‘Oracle (ORCL) Initiated at Sell by Rothschild Redburn, $175 Price Target Set’ and it is followed by “According to the firm, the market is materially overestimating the value of Oracle’s contracted cloud revenues. In big, single-tenant, large-scale deployments, the company acts more like a financier than a cloud provider, “with economics far removed from the model investors prize.”” As well as “Oracle’s five-year cloud revenue guidance is equal to $60B in value. This reflects that the market is already pricing in a “risky blue-sky scenario that is unlikely to materialize.”” My first issue is “Why?” You see, even as I do not trust (or believe) AI, its foundations is set on data as it always was set. Data is the holy grail of AI that much is certain and it will proceed to be for decades to come. So, who will you trust with your data? Microsoft with its Azure? As I see it Microsoft can’t see real innovation through the brushes of their own proclaimed innovation and as hackers proclaim that Israel is storing a particular form of its ‘defense’ data in Azure, there might be a security issue as well and that is a total blocker. There are good data solutions in Google, IBM and Amazon, but they all consider Oracle to be the Rolls Royce of data carriers. Then we get the next setting of ‘Nvidia And Oracle Headline 7 Promising Stocks With Mojo: Analysts’ and as they give us “What’s especially impressive is that these stocks are already up 30% or more this year. That blows away the 12.9% gain by the S&P 500 this year. So these are the big winners Wall Street still has high hopes for.” As such we see that in spite of all the stupidities the American political engine performs these two are kind of hot and it makes sense that they are, even if I have some reservations, there was never a doubt that Oracle could grow through it. Making the Statement from Rothschild debatable and me without economic degrees calling Rothschild on this is better then sex (even if Olivia Wilde would call on me in the next hour calling me a fucking tool, this is followed by a rather loud giggle by me). So when we get to ‘Why Oracle’s Cloud Computing Deals With Meta Platforms and OpenAI Make The “Ten Titans” Growth Stock a Top Buy Now’ A setting that the Motley Crew gives us (what do they know of IT?). We are given “the company announced plans to increase Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue by more than 14-fold in five years. But that news proved to be just one splash amid a sea of waves. Reports indicate that Oracle and Meta Platforms are in talks on a $20 billion cloud computing deal. And Oracle and OpenAI are building on their $300 billion partnership with the rollout of five new data centers custom-built for artificial intelligence (AI).” No matter where they are, a setting of a 1400% revenue growth in 5 years is massive, unbelievable massive. Now, no matter how this turns, the one day lightbulb who believe in their AI settings will have to invest the money to make it work and that is the beginning of a setting where Oracle wins, no matter how that turns out. As such the AI wannabe’s are fueling the increase and funding the foundations of these data centers. And we are given “Google Cloud serve a variety of general compute customers. However, Oracle’s data centers are specifically designed for AI.

Oracle is a good example of why lacking a first-mover advantage isn’t a deal-breaker. Oracle’s data centers are newer and faster. And it’s bringing over 70 of them online in just a few years, which is why it expects OCI growth to reach an inflection point in fiscal 2027.” I reckon that it will serve several purposes, but it is more AI set than other centers. Although I have no real idea where Amazon and IBM stand. I reckon that Oracle could cater to the needs of Snowflake and allow its customers to grow their needs and it will do so a lot better than being a little IT guy Azure blue with questions. I saw the need for applications in the lost and found section that could grow adaptation by nearly all airports and when you are in, you are in. I reckon that Interworks should talk to adaptation Snowflake through Oracle, but that is just me.

Then we get an article that matters (at least it seems to). We are given ‘Analyst Says Oracle (ORCL) Deal With OpenAI is ‘Very Risky’ – ‘Not a Customer That Can Pay Their Obligations’’ and I see “One is if you go back to the transcripts from Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) for the last few quarters, you’ll see that it’s not just the last deal from OpenAI that increased their backlog. It’s actually been several quarters where it’s really OpenAI that’s been driving all of this. Having that is the only thing that’s added value to Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) is very risky. That’s not a customer that can pay all their obligations. They’re double, triple booking, maybe quadruple booking capacity. They will not be able to live to those obligations. So if you’re adding $400 billion of market cap to Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) based on that, I think we should revisit the math.” OK, I am in (not knowing the math he talks about), and we see “OpenAI is expected to burn about $115 billion over the next four years and is not projected to be profitable until 2030. Even after Nvidia’s latest $100 billion investment by Nvidia, OpenAI will likely need to raise over $200 billion in total funding to cover its commitments. Some analysts believe Oracle may need to borrow tens of billions to build enough data centers for the deal.” OK, that sounds fair, but some seem to forget that Larry Ellison is worth 344,000 million (sounds much better then 344 billion) as such he can get those numbers without any question. And if he is right he will triple his value overnight as these data centers come online. And that is when the article shoots itself in the foot. They do it by giving us “While we acknowledge the potential of ORCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.” You see, no matter how great the idea is, it will still need data and Oracle is the best. They can side with fast talking sales people at Azure and see their projects fumble and watch delay after delay happen. As those promising returns fall to ash you can contemplate your choices. That being said, any AI idea is temporary at best, as such the investment in an Oracle engine seems a much better setting and these people have been in data for decades. As such I see the value and the foundation of Oracle, even if some do not or question the setting of Oracle. 

I wonder how Pythia sees my predictions and even as I am called ‘duly’ to serve Apollo (I serve Lord Hades in all things) the foundation of predictions is seemingly driven by personal insights and I have been at the foundations of data going back to 1982 so I do feel I am on the right track.

Have a great day and don’t forget to chew your laurel leaves, whether you are about to enjoy a coffee or not. Oh, get your coffee quick, the US government shuts down in 7.5 hours.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Omphalos and its syndrome

This syndrome comes from the references of Delphi and the ‘navel of the world’, which is what Delphi was regarded as. Nowadays, we see Omphalos syndrome as the misguided belief that a place of geopolitical power and currency is the most important place in the world.

I believe that to be no longer correct, I believe that it has been ‘converted’ into something slightly more generic. I believe that it should be seen as ‘the misguided believe that its choice of management and achievement of profit are the most important in the world’. Let’s take a look at a few examples.

 

A is for Apple

‘Apple apologises over Error 53 and issues fix for bricked iPhones’ (at http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/19/error-53-apple-issues-fix-bricked-iphones) shows the first example. The entire error53 mess is a direct example. It goes on to the core that we now see “Apple has released a fix for users affected by “Error 53”, a software issue that rendered useless iPhones that had had their home buttons replaced by third parties“, The initial response “At the time Apple said that Error 53 was a security feature to protect customers” reads like a joke. The mere alternative that was open was that any non-Apple certified method meant the wiping of data would have been enough. It took me 5 minutes to come up with that solution. A mere auto wipe of all data. No we have to read quotes like “Apple has apologised for Error 53 and said customers who paid for an out-of-warranty replacement for their phone should contact AppleCare about reimbursement” as well as “Solving Error 53 does not re-enable Touch ID, as a third-party replacement of the home button could potentially allow unauthorised access to a locked phone by modifying the fingerprint sensor“. It would have been the simplest of solutions to go through the re-enabling system again. All these simple solutions, all because apple wanted to enforce the repairs of their phones to what they consider to be THEIR allowed service repair shops. An application of greed, to maximise profits, not the openness of what was once the Apple OS X through a Unix open source system, but the mere stranglehold of a greed driven corporation. It was brought to light by several articles in the Guardian and an initial customer service based solution comes “after widespread publicity and the Californian tech giant being served with a class action lawsuit over in the US and attention from a competition watchdog in Australia“, I wonder how many IOS people will start considering Android now.

 

E is for Eisai

This event is taking us back a fair bit, around 2000 Eisai came with its Alzheimer’s drug Aricept (donepezil). The fact that profits grow by 100% might not be the biggest thing on the planet. Yes when the LA Times (at http://articles.latimes.com/2012/mar/22/health/la-he-aricept-fda-20120323) reported “FDA officials should not have allowed it, the authors said, because the clinical studies Eisai offered in support of its application did not meet standards the agency itself had laid out“, in addition we see “it failed to yield the improvements that the FDA had set as a condition of approval“, in all this a clear investigation did not take place. It is still allowed, mainly because it is FDA approved. We see in other sources the claims like “Further, the higher dose was not superior on either of the pre-specified secondary outcome measures, which, as the FDA medical reviewer pointed out, argues that the cognitive difference was not meaningful“, which we get from the FDA Center for Drug Evauation and Research. Application number 022568: medical review. Aricept 23 mg tablets. (at www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2010/022568Orig1s000MedR.pdf), when we consider the source http://www.nhs.uk/news/2015/10October/Pages/Cheap-Alzheimers-drug-may-help-keep-people-out-of-care-homes.aspx, where we get the quote “a year’s worth of donepezil costs around £21 a year, compared with a year’s worth of care home costs – estimated to be between £30,732 and £34,424 a year. If the results of the study were replicated at a population level, this could save the NHS a considerable sum of money“.

This is where we see another version of Omphalos syndrome, “the misguided believe that my version of cost cutting is the best in the world“, at this point, we should investigate the players and consider whether a case for criminal endangerment exists. The fact that sources have shown ‘evidence’ as per 2007 gives rise to a failed system, not just the NHS, but the leeway for pharmaceuticals as, from the given reports failed to yield the improvements that the FDA had set as a condition of approval, making the question why on earth was it approved at all and why are certain diseases used for marketing a cash cow, more important why is the NHS not loudly and outspoken dealing with this? Especially as www.NHS.UK is involved in promoting articles in favour of Aricept (donepezil).

 

I is for Insight Enterprises

This is a side that rests with Omphalos, yet in all this it is in equal measure a situation we must accept. Insight Enterprises did nothing wrong, it made a choice, it’s governing body stated ‘this is the best path, this is the golden solution’, we must accept that any governing body, being it corporate or governmental will be ‘smitten’ with Omphalos Syndrome. So as Microsoft changed the partner program in 2014, Insight Enterprises saw the filling of its corporate coffers trickle down to zero. (at http://www.crn.com/news/channel-programs/300079674/insight-enterprises-absorbs-another-hit-after-microsoft-partner-program-changes.htm). We can debate the mess Insight Enterprises received, the near simple answer is that Microsoft had to change programs, any large corporations will do that. Any program they offer and device tends to be ‘fluidic’ over time. Yet when we see the quote “The changes also affected Microsoft’s Licensing Solution Providers, like Tempe, Ariz.-based Insight, which are the only partners Microsoft allows to sell licensing agreements to large corporations“, which is now showing another side. Does this make Microsoft narcissistically selfish or just plain sociopathic? You see all narcissists are selfish, but not all selfish corporations are narcissistically in nature (which is proven as greed we put the greedy in front of a mirrors), yet in all this, is this a sociopathic side in Microsoft? Well, that is a debate for another day as the entire Omphalos topic would soon get too murky.

 

O is for Omphalos

As shown in the last example, we tend to see Omphalos in a bad light. Which is not all correct either. On the other side we can take Bill Gates and his Omphalosian approach to IT. This got us DOS and later Windows. On the far side of the scale of limiting, there is the view of the truly visionary, but that view needs a start. Here the Omphalos syndrome works in another way. As I see it, we can accuse Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison on that list. Yet, we only did that AFTER they became successful, the not so successful are usually never heard of again.

In this world today, the foundation of ‘the most important place in the world’ is less and less applicable, it becomes a world of solutions, an amalgamation of aggregated values (the European Economic Community being a nice example). Yet the foundation of how to go about it was done in a very Omphalosian way. Especially when we consider the past blogs on how only self-proclaimed departures were the option. Which is exactly where Brexit is now. As Brexit gains momentum we see that the Omphalosian solution was the most dangerous here, it took one of the smallest nations (Greece) to push their non-accountability for the entire EEC to be in turmoil, with now a decent chance of collapsing the EEC as well as the Euro as a coin. Even as the United Kingdom is not on the Euro, France is and a Brexit will soon push for an additional Frexit. In that regard, the Financial Times quoted Florian Philippot who stated “the idea of challenging greater EU integration had become “taboo” in Europe. “The more we talk about it, the more people will vote against it,” he said” (at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/58f9cc98-ce51-11e5-92a1-c5e23ef99c77.html#axzz40fDAW3BL). This is yet another side of Omphalos, actually two sides. The foundation of Omphalos is based on one view, if that view does not evolve or alters as time goes by, that view becomes less and less actual. The view becomes an act of obstruction at best and debilitating at worst.

In the second part, we have forever seen the Omphalos syndrome in its power core on the scope of government (read: Communistic), in that view we forgot that it is corporations with their view on the ‘only’ solution that is now impacting the lives of people in several (read: many) nations. In that same view we see that the old approach to currency is no longer the same. Most values are too dependent on independent views of static organisations and their push for changed industrialisations. How come that the value of a coin is now directly impacted by places like Dow Jones index, Nasdaq, Standards and Poor, the IMF, the ECB and so on? Governments allowed themselves to be directly be valued from what is perceived to be an ‘independent’ side. This is the other part that drives Brexit and other plans to no longer be part of anything. There is a near global consensus that these sources can no longer be trusted. That their view is to some extent ‘Greed Incarnate’.

As I see it, there is no true independence anymore. When we read that Eagle Capital Management Invests $293000 and that J. W. Burns & Company Has $533000 invested in in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). When the index itself is invested on, the expectations of improved value must be met, where does that leave us?

 

U is for You!

Even when we see the old and the new versions of the Omphalos syndrome, we need to realise that what once seen as short-sighted and limited is now not so limiting. It remains (as I personally see it) as short-sighted as it ever was (only in the rarest of occasions is it visionary), but now, the impact is no longer limited to one government, now its short-sighted impact is nearly global. It hits parties in many nations and it does not stop there. You see in a governmental approach it is ‘set’ to be what is best for its citizens and in case of the EEC it is what a group of nations see. Now consider the application from corporations that impacts governments on a global scale, offices of standards that impact the dangers to lives on a global scale as it does not enforce its own given values. How can we be aligned to a limiting view that could cost us our lives and our choice of living?

So as you consider ‘the misguided believe that its choice of management and achievement of profit are the most important in the world’ also strongly consider what it will cost you, not now, but down the track.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Media, Politics