We all have them, they could be mirages of our imagination, they could be subconscious ramification of facts we were exposed to, whatever the reason. Whatever the reason, it tends to be a decent reason to take heed. So first I see all kinds of news that the AI bubble has burst in China. I was unaware that they had put such a massive amount in that, but whatever. Hours later I see a splash of newscasts from all over the western world that something here is shaking too. First off there was the ‘fact’ that the fortune of Larry Ellison had dipped by $11 billion (its not a lot when you say that fast) then I see Bloomberg giving us ‘Oracle Is Near $10 Billion Share Sale at 11% Discount’, which sounds nice, if you are into those kind of things. Then about 5 hours later I see ‘Oracle, along with Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, has disclosed a combined $3.3 trillion in future spending commitments.’ And suddenly the picture changes. As I personally see it, the bubble is bursting now here too and these 5 big spenders are ‘combining’ their spending (to each other) to make the bubble not happen. It is like a game of High Stakes Pot Limit Omaha (PLO) game of poker. I am not too knowledgeable on poker in general (except Aces High, not the Iron Maiden song) and we get a setting because PLO uses four hole cards (and you must use exactly two from your hand and three from the board), equity distributions run much closer together. Favored hands frequently sit at 60% to 65% pre-flop rather than dominant 80%+ leads and then one card in the middle is the Joker ‘AI’ so they are all out to get a setting of that with this poker setting that they each want to get the winning hand, but as I said it, all AI is fictive for close to 15 years, too now wonder what they are doing. Because these 5 (with Nvidia as and optional sixth) are all out in the open showing what bluffers they are and whilst we are looking we might see the common denominator in this. And the setting is ‘in future spending commitments’ because off this bubble bursts they will not be able to spend anything, the 3 trillion that they were ‘planning’ to spend will be gone with a massive amount of trillions that were always in the pot through all kind of means and suddenly no one needs the thousand or so data centres. So let that sink in.
And they are all facing more. In the first we see Meta with ‘Meta’s $25B fine left out accountability for the Cambridge Analytica data privacy scandal’ also one that I am partially on the side with Meta on that. It was ‘‘What I eat in a day’ videos landed Amelia in hospital. Now they are landing Meta in court’, so can anyone tell me how this falls on the head of Meta? (It’s a locked article) but it comes down that in the Covid era she (and others) started to share their eating habits. So, how is that Meta’s problem? Did Meta film her, or did she do that herself and was it to anyone with a medical degree or to a bunch of other near-teen people, all wanting to outdo each other on social media? This last one is not on the AI pile, but these settings tend to overlap legally and these parties are all out to get the most from their targets. (Its a legal setting) where the parties want to emulate their victim setting emulating through Donoghue v Stevenson [1932] UKHL 100 (26 May 1932), which is a famous torts case. And they all face these secondary measurements (likely Microsoft more than others) but they are all hindered down because of it. You see Microsoft is (apparently) valued at 3.77 trillion. All whilst one source gives us ‘Why is Microsoft raising $25 billion in debt when it already has $76.8 billion in cash?’ Sounds reasonable, until you see the expected debt off the books and into parties that will take the hit. It almost sounds like Party X in the late 1895 get a ‘friend’ to invest in Whaling oil, there is one big haul to get. And that friend agrees, but the dangers aware to Party X were never disclosed. Because it was June 1896 “Sperm oil prices dropped from a peak of $1.77 per gallon in 1856 to 40 cents by 1896, failing to compete with refined petroleum” and his friend now faces a decline of 78%, it was too late for him and friend X kept his head up because of all the losses he faces, well his bank did, but he scored a nice retirement. We are entering this last game of AI now. People are aware there isn such think like AI and it is merely predictive analytics, a more advanced form of it, but it is still massively dependent on data and there is the shoe that just doesn’t fit. The data is the problem mostly because of an absence of validation and verification. Also I reckon that these validation settings (whatever there is) is pushed thought several parties and they all have their own validation metrics. So there are numerous problems that many are ignoring and I saw that first hand but they are all shouting AI together and ruling up the audience. So when we go to that person who claims that those ‘believing’ that’s only idiots believe in the AI bubble are like founder Masayoshi Son and SoftBank have pivoted heavily toward artificial intelligence. They will take a massive hit soon enough, although they are also in robotics, chip design which might make it thought, but the heavy capital allocation into OpenAI might not do so well. But take the word of Masayoshi Son over me a nobody. And invest right ahead and don’t mind the shark swimming underseas, because they nibble. And it is fair to question my word who reacts to the headlines and events that the media is giving us, but ask yourself. What real reasons was there to ‘Oracle, along with Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, has disclosed a combined $3.3 trillion in future spending commitments’? And how is that split up? And also where is that going? You see, the first headlines with the $100 billion mentions are optionally inspiring, but now we see “As of May 2026, there had been no further progress on the project beyond the letter of intent, with Argentina’s Economy Ministry stating that they had not received a formal application for their large venture incentive scheme.” (Source: Buenos Aires Times) so what else is in the and at present, because we were given “OpenAI and Sur Energy signed a letter of intent to explore the development of an AI data center in Argentina’s Patagonia, named Stargate Argentina. This project, the first Stargate site in Latin America, would represent an estimated investment of up to $25 billion and have a capacity of up to 500 megawatts” and as I see it, at present Argentine has about Argentina has an installed electricity generation capacity of about 44.2 GW, is that where the 500MW is coming from, and if so, why was an additional $25 billion required? Wherever you look it leads to more questions and in this game of PLO is it the intent that everyone looks at the cards, not the noise and why that noise does not seem to make sense and it is all due to secondary noise, not part of any of this, but these companies are too large to ignore this. So who is making a tally, because as I see it, none of them have the cajones to put up their own market value to this, why is that? So don’t become the patsy nesting in whaling oil when it is too late or perhaps too soon is also available, in 1820 was massively riddled with dangers. So whatever you do, ask questions and read up, because at present the entire (fake) AI setting is riddled with dangers and no one is looking beyond the headlines and into the data it is supposed to deliver.
Have a great day.
