Category Archives: Military

July 21, 2014 · 11:11

A political triptych

Whenever I see a trilogy I remember my first introduction to something in three parts. They were the works of Hieronymus Bosch. My earliest recollection of them was seeing his work with my own eyes when I was around 12 years old, making ‘triptych’ the most expensive word in my vocabulary in those early years. The events that have been at the centre of our lives lately seem to reflect the chaos we see in these famous triptychs.

First there is the issue I described earlier this week in ‘Here come the Drums!’. Russia has had an opportunity to throw ‘its’ image in several ways. Not because of me or because of the image it needs to have, but because of the image that it could have regardless of what the US claimed it to be. I was wrong! Whether Putin is as stupid as the US makes him out to be, or whether his advisers are working on self-serving needs is something only historians can decide upon. The fact that we see massive amounts of evidence that the local Donetsk population is giving the internet, the initial view (at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fjpB5gw3iM) was nothing compared towards the anger we see clips where people are going through the debris (at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGzcHd118mM). There were additional clips on how people were cheering on downing a plane and other issues of utter disrespect, which seems to have been removed from YouTube and seem too outrageous to add to this blog.

I should also revisit the comparison that I made with the question: ‘A lawyer walks into an insane asylum and hands an inmate a gun, who then kills the Warden of that place. Who is to blame?‘, I still feel it is relevant. The question was who supplied the BUK system, was it Russian, or was it captured? You see, in BOTH cases the international authorities should have been alerted to the dangers the area brought. It was the leaked conversation that angered many (including me). “Nikolay Kozitsin: That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn’t be f_cking flying. There is a war going on“, this baboon, or better stated, this baboon on Lysergic acid diethylamide is an army commander?

The fact that it was at an altitude of 30,000 feet should have been an indication that it could have been non-military. The events that follow, to the massive acts of disrespect and legal transgressions should have been a clear indicator that Russia should have stepped away from all this seems abundantly clear. Head my words, I am not stating that Russia had done anything wrong, the mere fact that it did not speak out loudly towards this transgression tarnishes them on (an undeserved) equal footing as Commander Nikolay Kozitsin. President Putin should have seen that one coming a mile away. This is nothing compared to the stupidity by Sky News shown on the Guardian (at http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/20/sky-news-presenter-brazier-mh17-luggage-crash), where Colin Brazier shows himself to be more ignorant then a first year Journalism student. His actions were met with outrage by fellow presenters Jacqui Oatley and Shelagh Fogarty. There is one correction that must be made, the initial information I had, was that the Data Flight Recorders (black boxes) were on route to Russia, whilst the information I currently have is that they had only recently been taken to Donetsk (at http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-black-boxes-under-rebel-watch-in-donetsk-according-to-separatist-leader-20140721-zv4lg.html). It seems only correct that I alter that part here.

There is another side to all this, as we see (at http://www.smh.com.au/world/john-kerry-says-us-has-enormous-amounts-of-evidence-linking-russia-with-mh17-disaster-20140721-zv4mz.html) that the MH17 disaster is linked to Russia, there are still questions that give worry to this. Yes, I agree that in my view Russia bares definite responsibility, not just by the possible SAM delivery (as the original is still in question), but the fact that the pro-Russian separatists were not stricken down in a verbal lashing from the Kremlin to give full cooperation, which is a much heavier transgression. Consider that these ‘pro-Russians’ would not listen, accept, or heed the words from Moscow; does that not make them simple terrorists? If that would be the case, how could Russia consider not distancing themselves from this disaster from the very first moment the events took place? If Russia is in league with these terrorists, then was the downing of MH17 not a clear act of war?

Is at the centre of it all?

Consider the financial situation the USA is currently facing, it is broke, which means it has no way to feed the war industry, which gives Moscow a distinctive advantage, if we accept that neither wants to go nuclear any day soon, then the acts of ‘sanctions’ is pretty much the biggest artillery the west can muster at present, even as we continue to see the results of acts within Donetsk. It is harder to tell whether I am right or wrong (I could be either), yet the inactions in Syria and now Eastern Ukraine seems to show a lack of directive from all NATO parties (not just the US). This all gives shape to the art on the left side of the Triptych.

The next issue is the one I also briefly touched upon, it is the escalating issues in Gaza, where it seems more and more clear that Israel has had enough of the threat Hamas has made over the last few years and the loss of support that Hamas is enjoying, as well as the US no longer having a clear and powerful hold over the region on an economic base is also a cause for Hamas to wonder whether their approach to issues would ever have worked to begin with. Now that Egypt is distancing itself more and more from Hamas, they are now hoping for a resolution through Qatar, where they seem to hope that the UN will be able to find options with the help of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The Sheik is a diplomatic force to be reckoned with, as a Sandhurst graduate, which is regarded as the finest military officer’s education in the world. The only issue that would remain is whether Hamas is in any way entitled to such distinctive representation. In one way, it might actually result in actual cease fire talks between Hamas and Israel; it is however also one of the final straws Hamas has left, if they decide to break that truce in any way, the results could not just end Hamas, it might actually end the options for any Palestinian Gaza. It could result in the biggest poker hand the Middle East has seen in a few decades. That and the option that progress could be in result will only emphasize the amounts of power lost to the US (who was utterly unable to make any headway here). It will also strengthen Qatarian influence over a larger portion of the Middle East, which could be exactly why Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani might consider to assist in the matter as well as the motto he trained under ‘Serve to Lead‘. Achieving that might just leave the Academy General’s bursting with pride (the General who was leading the academy when the Sheik was a student there). If we go back to the Triptych, then this would be right side of the Triptych. So what is at the centre?

These two sides are linked to a much larger painting in the middle. It is without a doubt the economic sides we have seen overwhelming the left and the right side. It is not the economy of missile systems (which might be an implied reference), but it is the economic powers that are too scared to lose it all in a war, which is of course the smallest of reasons to consider war over, but it is a factor none the less. More important, it is the diminished economic power of the US that is centre on all this. It would be unfair to just refer to the US here, but the bulk of the EEC is in a worse shape than the US currently is, so that is why the US is still the central element in all this. Their inability to get control of their overspending is a massive reason for the ‘blame’ towards the US. But let us not forget that the UK is not without blame either. In its current shape (especially the massive debt) the UK is also lacking in power to set for the ‘demanding’ (or better stated ‘intensely requesting’) image that should be given towards Eastern Ukraine and Israel/Hamas in these matters. Even if we give the proper weight to the Guardian article on the GDP of the United Kingdom (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/20/gdp-surpass-pre-financial-crisis-level), the headline ‘GDP to surpass pre-financial crisis levels‘ is just an indicator and even though I admit that the UK is still getting back on the horse, the issue ‘ignored’ for now is that Gross Domestic Product is no real indicator of better times, only for now that this seems to indicate good times for the ‘rich’. People in the UK are still on massive levels of debt and that is not likely to change any day soon. There is still a shortage on jobs and those who do have a job are inclined to go along with outrageous amounts of legalised slave labour. Freedom comes at a price, or better stated, when big business rules (or massively influences) the actions of government, we see an unbalanced view on life and every inch they do not claim will come at another cost.

Here we see the elements of a triptych by Hieronymus Bosch. Either of the famous three of his triptychs could apply to the chaotic mess we are all facing. In the end there is enough imagery to debate which one is the best depiction. The economic sector would argue that we are in the triptych ‘The Garden of Earthly Delights‘, whilst the people under the pressures of this economy will counter that their fate is shown by the triptych ‘The Last Judgment‘. The view also reinforces the views outsiders have towards the entire economy. Partaking in it will always be better than watching the result on the outside looking in, because those on the outside will never get to partake in the game at all.

2014 might end up being a very decisive year for many of us!

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Tagged as Boeing 777, Colin Brazier, Donetsk, Hieronymus Bosch, Jacqui Oatley, MH17, Nikolay Kozitsin, President Putin, Qatar, Russia, Sandhurst, Serve to Lead, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Shelagh Fogarty, Sky News, the Guardian, triptych, US, USA, Youtube

July 18, 2014 · 10:55

Here come the drums!

Today is a day for mourning. Not just for the victims and the family of victims, but for all our souls. I am not stating that we are going towards WW3 at present, which would be wrong and very inconsiderate; it would also be incorrect as far as I can tell at present.
I got the news very early this morning; it shook me up at first. My first question was whether the press would suddenly call it a ‘plane shot down‘. I was not aware of the full facts, and the indiscriminate acts by the Murdoch group in regards to MH370 gave me that worry. Yet, there it came, the message that it was shot down. This time, it was indeed an act of violence that brought the plane down.

This all made me consider and offering you the following issue: ‘A lawyer walks into an insane asylum and hands an inmate a gun, who then kills the Warden of that place. Who is to blame?‘

This is not some ‘proposed’ issue; this is what seems to be happening at this very moment. Who gave these separatists access to a multimillion dollar system that can down a plane from 30,000 feet? This is not a stinger or some RPG on a shoulder. This is a system that requires a sizeable missile, computers, radar, guidance as well as the people to man and successfully fire this system. Hamas does not have access to anything like that, so where did these separatists get them? Hamas has had access to arm dealers for decades; they never got access to this level of hardware (or the people to operate it).

This has so far not been on the minds of most journalists, who are still hitting the emotion snare on the harp of agony, which is fair enough, as we see this happen (whether valid or not) all the time. The question is when should we be asking these questions? I understand that we need to wait for answers and facts to arrive, yet the serious and valid question should be asked as immediate as possible so we can focus on the actual answers. I was told 4 hours ago (just before 06:00 local time) that the black box was already on route to Russia. So was this plane shot down over Russia or Ukraine? If the plane was shot down over Ukraine, why is it on route to Russia? It might be for a very valid reason, I just wonder why it was not on route to Kiev if it was shot down over Ukraine.

Perhaps my question is not that correct either, but they are the questions that came to my mind at 05:00 and 06:00 this morning.

Is this just it? Is there more?

That is also on the forefront of my mind. Do not worry; this is not some conspiracy theory moment! This is all happening at same time as we see ground forces enter Gaza, Israel has had enough of Hamas and is now cleaning house in that area. The support Cairo gave Israel, or better stated, the support it is NOT willing to give Hamas (which is not the same) is opening a few doors. Consider the issues we had seen with Syria, Ukraine (except for Crimea) and a few other places, now we get these two events. It seems to me that parties are no longer heading any words coming from the US State Department and its ambassadors, or its secretary of State. They just hide behind even more ‘sanctions’. How is that working for you in regards to Cuba Mr President? The fact that a passenger liner gets shot down like this, that Gaza is now entered by Israel (which seems valid to me after 2000 missile strikes), gives more and more the impression that the US is no longer heeded in any advice. In my view, a nation with minus 18,000 billion in their treasury is taken less seriously then one with a mighty force that could be send out anywhere if they had actual coin in the coffers. I say (in Game of Throne style) ‘The master of the coin has a wee bit of explaining to do!’

Are they all consequences of the US no longer having the ‘balls’ (read filled bank account) to do anything against these transgressions?
It does leave several nations (those with citizens on the MH17) a few things to consider. What will Russia do? If Russia wants to be regarded as the ‘shiny knight’ on its Russian Steed, it would have to come down on these separatists really hard. If they did, the balance of power would definitely shift in many ways. The White House becomes the talker who does not act and it could make Russia the acting party who does not present. Is this the events as they will truly play out?

No matter what happens in the end, we all have questions at present. What is the question in regards to MH17 that is on your mind? It does not matter whether you have family or countrymen on this flight. Today we are witnessing a group of (militants or terrorists) take out a civilian plane as casual as eating pancakes. I hope we hear the serious questions from several sides before the governments start playing politics (as they have to). In the end we all want answers, the families of the victims above all.

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Tagged as Cairo, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Malayan Airlines, MH17, President Obama, Russia, Ukraine, USA, White House

July 6, 2014 · 15:23

The hungry Journalist games

Another day and another article on Sky News!

This all started a long time ago, but it seems that this article (at http://news.sky.com/story/1293651/internet-firms-take-legal-action-against-gchq), opens up new avenues to explore, aqs it already had taken the cake as one might say. There are issues for certain, they are on both sides, but what is this about?

The seven countries involved are the UK, the US, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Zimbabwe. Let’s start by stating that this is an interesting group of nations to begin with. It was an article in Der Spiegel that set them off. Most sources seem to have copied and pasted the same message (Reuters Journalism as I tend to call it), one source also had this: “Their complaint follows in the wake of articles about mass surveillance published in the Guardian based on material released by Snowden“.

So again this could be a ‘Snowden’ story, but I want to take a look at another side and the quote by Eric King spokesperson (deputy director) of Privacy International who stated “It completely cripples our confidence in the internet economy and threatens the rights of all those who use it. These unlawful activities, run jointly by GCHQ and the NSA, must come to an end immediately”

Is that the truth, or should the correct quote be “It completely undermines our support of optional criminal activities and threatens the opportunity of economic abuse for all who desire it. Their unlawful activities, run jointly by GCHQ and the NSA, must come to an end immediately, so that we may again focus on possibly deniable illicit profit”

That is quite the change, isn’t it? Consider the following two issues. First the prices, for example ‘Greenhost’ offers the following:

Webhosting 120 GB storage and 1.2 TB data traffic for 132.75 euro’s a month and virtual data servers containing 50 GB storage and 1 TB bandwidth a month for 215 euro’s a month. Basically, just one account would fit the web space for most the ENTIRE Forbes top 50, not just one or two.

So, in light of recent events, I thought I had something here, the Dutch provider fits the bill, but then I got to Riseup, which no longer seemed to be active and the Chaos Computer Club (CCC) which seemed highly ideologically to me. More important, it did not fit the bill either. So am I barking up the wrong tree? (I have been wrong before you know!)

I still believe that the ISP’s are all about not complying as it is not about freedom, but about bandwidth (which directly translates into revenue), which seemed to fit the first part, but the others are not about that, which makes me wonder what is in play. Do you actually think that the NSA and GCHQ are about wasting time? So, is the Chaos Computer Club a waste of time? No, as far as I can tell, they are not. Are they a threat? Well, that remains the issue. They are hackers after all. Is it that farfetched that some people would want to keep track of some of these members? Let’s not forget that someone is feeding organised crime the knowledge that they need to avoid prosecution, when considering the power that both the Triades and the Russian Mafia have in the digital age area, looking into the CCC to some extent seems to be a given. However, knowing their skills, doing it in the way it is implied to have been done seems a little over the top as most of these hackers are pretty proud of themselves and they are for the most not in hiding. Let us not forget, they voice themselves to be about the freedom of the German people and the utter privilege of their data remaining private.

The fact is that this is an implied mess involving 7 countries, the next valid question becomes: ‘are they linked (beyond the accusation), or are they just a collection of elements?’

That question bares scrutiny, but should also indicate the view I have had of Snowden from the very beginning. I believe him to be a joke (and a bad one at that). Now, most of you will not believe this, but let us take a look at the EVIDENCE. I am not talking about some claim, but actual evidence partially on the common sense you and me hopefully tend to have.

1. The claims that he has made involves massive levels of access. Not the access a hacker will ever have, but the information from top level sources in the CIA, NSA and GCHQ. So were talking hacking into over dozens of top level secured servers, servers which are monitored 24/7. He, some hacker no one had ever heard from, did all that. These people behind the screens do NOT EVER give out passwords, do not give access, yet he had all the information and walked out of one of the most secure buildings in the world with all THAT data? This is a quote found in sources like ‘the Verge’ and ‘Wired’. I think we can agree that wired is a reputable source in regards to technology (at http://www.wired.com/2013/06/snowden-thumb-drive/) “‘There are people who need to use a thumb drive and they have special permission,’ an unnamed, ex-NSA official told the LA Times. ‘But when you use one, people always look at you funny.’” This is not unlike the view I have had for a year now. Let’s not forget, the NSA is the place where SELinux was developed, it was designed to keep close tabs on access control, specifically, who, where, how and with what. So ‘some’ technician, with the USB drive in the most secure server space on the planet is just not going to fly. The question I had from the very beginning is not how he did it, but what was actually at play here? The next part is assumption! Was it to give Booz Allan Hamilton more profit? That was my alleged first thought. If data was going to get ported to non-government institutions, this small caper could give BAH and whoever was getting oversight an easy and clean billion a year in revenue. That tactic, still ethically wrong, would have made perfect sense to me.

Here is how I see it and this is PURE assumption (I will get back to evidence in a minute for my next issue), consider the Microsoft disappointment with data collection plans for the Xbox One. We see some of the changes (at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/23/us/politics/house-votes-to-limit-nsas-collection-of-phone-data.html). The following quotes are essential here. The first one was from Jim Sensenbrenner, Republican of Wisconsin, “The N.S.A. might still be watching us, he added, but now we can be watching them“. It is a bold statement, but is it true; moreover, should they be watched? Yes, any intelligence operation needs oversight, which is fair enough in a democratic way of life, but how many should overlook this? Are the people in oversight not granted well above average powers and is it fair to any opposition party that they should have it?

2. What lies beneath this access is the amount of involvement. Prism is one of the named projects with supported links to Australia, the UK and the Netherlands, with Microsoft as a commercial partner. Really? One nation, known for clogs, cheeses, Hans Brinker and soccer is placed next to the NSA and the Commonwealth? It is a technological hub, no doubt about that, but it is the size of Maryland. So, this is just the first of several projects, involving secrecies that would be limited to the very top, most of it would not be written down and Snowden had it (as in having in past tense, details follow). The mention of projects like XKeyscore, Tempora, Project 6, Stateroom, Lustre and Muscular. They are not only different projects, but they are a scope of projects that would not ever be in one location to begin with. So, what is implied as ‘the top’ of data gathering and one IT person has it all? Is no one asking the questions the PRESS should have asked and openly doubted from the very beginning to begin with (a part that is not voiced in any way).

The funny part is that stateroom seems to be no more than the legal collection of information as EVERY government tends to collect diplomatic data and in his claim he made them ALL bitches to the NSA, they just do not know it. There is also a reference to Echelon, there are several references, but the one that matters is not named. A covert niche within the NSA and the name of the source is: Tom Clancy!

Is anyone starting to wake up now?

This is not about anything but the warped imagination that is not even close to a reality. Consider that every government has embassies and consulates, the Dutch have them, the Australians have them, so do the Brits and the Germans, not to mention the French and they have them too. Consulates and Embassies represent their governments. Consulates tend to be specific for people and companies, so that they have backups. Like getting home when your passport is stolen, or to help a company with a list of people they should talk to for starting to do business. Trade will always remain important anywhere. Embassies are more about ‘governing’ opportunities as I see them. The Dutch want to get first dibs on building a reliable bridge, so their ambassador talks the great talk. People skills is what it is all about and talking to the right people. There are other sides too, they try to resolve issues, like a Dutchman committing a crime in Melbourne (for example) and the Embassy tries to ‘help’ the Dutch person to get home again, or to assist local government with their investigation if need be. These people do work that they sometimes like and sometimes hate, it is a job that needs to be done. To get the best results some things need to remain confidential and secret and as such whether through encrypted ways or through other ways messages go back and front between a government and its local representatives and that needs a little more security. Some is as simple as a message of a first insight as to build a bridge; to keep the advantage this goes encrypted. It is the cost of business, plain and simple. There is no hidden agenda (other than national pride in trying to score the job). So, they do they do their job and they are not the NSA bitch in the process.

It is simple approach and the lie hidden within a truth was stated as “They are covert, and their true mission is not known by the majority of the diplomatic staff at the facility where they are assigned” Part of the truth is that the encryption specialist is usually not known, it is not a secret either, he used to be the person, who had one extra book with cyphers, he opened each page and set the encryption box and transmitted the information, often a NCO of communication (often has NATO duty reference A00x0). That person had two extra tasks and most in the diplomatic staff might not know, or better stated, they absolutely do not care.

When we saw the statements by certain key people in Australia or the UK they spoke the absolute truth. The small explanation I gave is done by all, the DSD (AUS), GCHQ (UK) and as I said it the Dutch have it too. It is a simple legally valid and required job that needs to be done, nothing secret about it, it is the cost of doing business and sometimes, to keep a lead profitable it sometimes gets handed over more secured, just like they do it at Microsoft (they just get heaps better equipment).

Another issue is the XKeyscore reference. Does such a thing exist, most likely! Now consider the implications of the following, there are mentions of 700 servers in 150 locations. The fact that it needs to intercept without visibility and analyse at the same time as a person does many things at the same time. Even if the best of the best was used (which likely is the case), then we are looking at a very select group trying to get a handle on perhaps no more than the most dangerous 2000 people on the planet. Does anyone believe that a system like this remains a secret if 4 Australian bases are involved? The next part can also be taken as a fact. Can anyone even guess the amount of bandwidth this takes? Most routers nearby the monitored person will truly get a beating, so whatever this is, it will show up. It is the scope that is claimed that makes no sense. Some in the NSA might find it nice if it was true, but the weak link in all this is the actual internet.

The last part of this is the kicker in this joke. If his life depends on it all, do you actually think he would ever part with the information? This came from the NY Times from October 2013 (at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/18/world/snowden-says-he-took-no-secret-files-to-russia.html) “Mr Snowden said he gave all of the classified documents he had obtained to journalists he met in Hong Kong, before flying to Moscow, and did not keep any copies for himself“, so his life depends on a journalist, who now has the thousands of documents?

Perhaps we should look at a much more likely explanation, the man has no value, the press is stretching the value of events, as they would and Snowden has played his part, I still think that the Chinese saw in him what I saw from the very beginning, a simple joke! They walked away and he had to flee to Russia who is keeping him around for entertainment and to piss of the Yanks (which they also regard as good entertainment). My issue is not him, but the fact that I see more wasted time and energy on laughable cases that keep us all away from actually moving forward. In this economy, as we are so stretched thin, rebuilding an economy is a first need, not waste time on some feigned attack on the ‘confidence in the internet economy‘ as Eric King puts it.

And for the love of whomever, let’s not compare Snowden and Assange, I completely oppose Assange and his view, but at least he seemed to believe in that what he did was a just cause and acted accordingly.

In the end this is just my view, but no one seems to be asking the questions the press are supposed to be asking. The Guardian and Der Spiegel seem to get a ‘free’ hand in boasting tons of data and a simple stamp ‘Snowden said it was so’ seems enough for people to just accept it.

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Tagged as AIVD, ASIO, Australia, Booz Allan Hamilton, CCC, Chaos Computer Club, CIA, Der Spiegel, DSD, Edward Snowden, Eric King, GCHQ, Germany, Greenhost, Jim Sensenbrenner, Jullian Assange, Lustre, Muscular, Netherlands, NSA, NY Times, Privacy International, Project 6, Russia, Russian Mafia, SELinux, Snowden, South Korea, Stateroom, Tempora, the Guardian, the Verge, Triade, Wired, XKeyscore

June 23, 2014 · 11:45

ISIS is coming to town!

Many have seen the news. Iraq is facing another brawl between the Sunni and Shiite. I do not proclaim any side, or even to know and comprehend the difference between the two beyond a limited and basic level. Is it required? There is an interesting article on it all in the Huffington Post (at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-barbanel/the-current-incarnation-isis_b_5509461.html), whether this is something you can connect to is up to you. It is the last paragraph that gives me pause and even some worry.

“Unfortunately, what’s needed is for the West to man-up and send in a multi-national force (Americans, Brits, French, Germans, etc.) and squash ISIS (which has ambitions of spreading their Islamic revolution to London and New York). It won’t take many planes or drones. ISIS has no air force. It won’t even take many troops to confront the several thousand ISIS fighters. What it will take is will power and if there’s absence of that we will be left only with the words of the 18th Century Irish philosopher Edmund Burke: ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.‘”

First of all, the US has no intent of getting involved (at present), more important should they? Remember the old issue when between the 2nd and the 4th of August 1990, Iraq took over Kuwait? It was condemned and after a while the US instigated Desert Storm and it was in that time between 17th January and 28th February 1991 that Sadam Hussein was removed from Kuwait. It was after this when at some point Bill O’Reilly made mention that at this stage, the hold of Sadam Hussein was weak and the Iraqi people could have overthrown their government if they truly wanted freedom. He was correct in a sense, but was he correct overall? I did not consider that part until this week. You see, the issues around Operation Iraqi Freedom (a dubious choice of name to some extent), was that this situation was never completely and correctly resolved (I admit that my use of correct is debatable). So as the US established democratic elections and formation of new Shia led government, we should wonder, even though the Shiite is in a massive majority, how the Sunni’s would react. Last week we saw the escalation of that sentiment in all its brutality. Giving a lot more weight to the consideration Bill O’Reilly left me with when he made the initial statement.

I needed to get another view, so I looked and I found this statistic Shia Muslims constitute 10-20% of the world’s Muslim population and 38% of the Middle East’s entire population, So that is a sizeable chunk, another gave me: “Most Muslims are of two denominations: Sunni (75 – 90%) or Shia (10 – 20%)“, which makes me wonder at first, yet the view from Professor Sue Hullett gave me: “Let me review, while Shia Islam makes up only 10%-20% of the world’s Muslim population, Iraq has a Shia majority (between 60%-65%), but had a Sunni controlled government under Saddam Hussein“, As she is the Distinguished Professor and Chair of Political Science at Knox College, her numbers should be regarded as reliable and they are in line with other numbers I found.

This leaves me with a much clearer picture that we are facing a change where Iraq goes back into the shape it had under Sadam Hussein. More important, the Shiite majority seems to be unwilling to fight the Sunni’s in this matter. Linked to this is a second quote from the Huffington Post “Tens of thousands of Iraqi troops just ran away, abandoned their equipment and abdicated their duty. Had even a fraction of them stood and fought, ISIS probably could have been thwarted.”

This is exactly in the light Bill O’Reilly stated several years ago. So is this a case of ‘Barbarians’ attacking ‘Pacifists’? More important, is it the job of the USA to just intervene every time? The issue of ‘deserting’ Shiite’s, for whatever reason, gives clear indication that not only was the exit strategy poorly chosen, an exit strategy should not have been considered. In other light, if the Iraqi’s are not willing to fight for their country and resources, what rights are they enabling themselves with?

Is there a solution?

I am not sure if there is. I have my doubts whether 300 advisors will help when troops run away leaving plenty of resources behind for ISIS, the fact that ISIS was active in Syria and is now armed to the teeth and entering Iraq should also give way to additional questions. The strategic position of ISIS at the borders of Iraq, Syria AND Jordan should also be seen as a dangerous escalation. The destabilisation of Jordan (if made threats are accurate), will push millions of refugees in all kinds of direction; none of them could be seen as a positive one. This is at the heart of the strategy of ISIS, which with my apology for a lack of better phrasing is actually brilliant. They have area control to move large amounts of goods and the US is not clear on what to do and where to do it. If they openly start an opposition war, whether from Iraq or not, they will derail whatever achievements the US state department had made with Iran, this will open up more options for Syrian escalation and the one almost ‘stable’ part there (Jordan), will now be in direct threat as well as its Royal family. Unless King Abdullah II of Jordan finds an acceptable alliance and added support, it runs the risk of destabilising really fast. Now we have ourselves a true Clambake as ISIS ends up with resources at the bulk of the Israeli borders. There is then a direct threat to Eilat (via Jordan) as well as the option to enter the Sinai with from there a path to Hamas. Israel could find themselves in a direct war on two fronts whilst having only limited options to reflect the invader ISIS without direct consent of Jordan, which ties the hands of Israel, with likely direct threats to the cities of Eilat, Ashkelon and Beer Sheva, which puts Israel in clear and present danger of having to instigate a massive offensive. This changes the Sinai into a powder keg and whilst there is no outspoken hostility against ISIS by Egypt, even if it was, Egypt will not allow an increased presence of Israel in the Sinai, making this “no man’s land” a good haven for ISIS, would they proceed in this direction.

ISIS is there for a massive danger for overall stability. That part is called to order even stronger when we consider the headline of the Financial Times ‘Diverse funding and strong accounting give Isis unparalleled wealth‘, by Sam Jones, Defence and Security Editor yesterday afternoon. This gives way to several issues. Not only are they a threat, they are a well-funded threat, which means that they could support Hamas with materials allowing for even more attacks on Israel, giving us an easy escalating situation. I reckon my initial advice for Israel to take back the Sinai in 2012 would have been the best course of action. Not in any anti-Egyptian way, but considering the pressures President Sisi is dealing with at present, having to deal with ISIS in his back yard might have been the one part he preferred not to deal with.

It would also have limited several explorations by ISIS, yet that did not happen, which means that unless a direct solution for Iraq can be found, we will see escalations all over the Middle East. If ISIS does get a hold of Iraq, the US will be forced into a financial and military corner, requiring a solution in a multinational way and very likely in several nations. Will that ever be an acceptable option?

In my mind, the most direct meed would not be Iraq, but Jordan. It is dealing with millions of refugee’s and a dwindling amount of resources. You should by now realise that until Iraqi’s pick up arms (instead of fleeing), that theatre could be lost. If we accept the roman principle of war (the installation of defences against enemy retaliation), then adding strength to the Kingdom of Jordan, as well as a massive increase of Humanitarian aid will be a first priority. It makes Israel less of a target and it limits the movement of ISIS in regards to Syria and Iraq. Yet in the end, until an offensive is launched, ISIS cannot be dealt with and that is something that needs to be done, the question remains: ‘how to do it?’

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Tagged as Ashkelon, Beer Sheva, Bill O'Reilly, Eilat, Financial Times, Huffington Post, Iran, Iraq, ISIS, Israel, Jordan, King Abdullah II, Knox College, Middle East, Operation Iraqi Freedom, Sadam Hussein, Saddam Hussein, Sam Jones, Shia Muslims, Shiite, Sinai, Sue Hullett, Sunni, Sunni and Shiite, Syria, USA

May 3, 2014 · 14:18

Lessons not learned

As I look back at the end of a lifetime and I wonder whether I am just nuts (which is always a fair assumption), or that others are just unwilling to see the implied fact that we have stopped evolving. Many lives are basically based upon bread and games, a term that goes back to the Roman Empire and seems to be at the very core of what is happening at present in many areas when we compare ourselves to people in the Ukraine. The ‘free’ west seems to be focused on sustenance (a basic need for surviving) and TV. The TV is even showing some gladiatorial show, where people do some kinetic steeplechase for the glory of fame and fortune. I have nothing against the game. I have seen it; it was fun to watch up to a point; and when we switch to some cable channel we are likely to see a TV series that we saw before, a series that is rerun again and again, whilst not showing the latest seasons, but leaving us 2 or more seasons short (depending on the station and the series). We get to see those episodes, whilst the rerun is not giving us the last 3 seasons of NCIS, the last 4 seasons of the Big Bang Theory and so on (it is a very long list).

The top of this consumer pyramid scheme (politicians, board of directors and so on) goes on planning for additional wealth, whilst the rest is getting outdated TV and they are just trying to make due.

That view is getting stronger and stronger as we are confronted with the escalations in the Ukraine. There are two sides that propagated these thoughts. The first was something President Obama stated when he addressed the press. The quote “this week to implement the IMF plan to stabalise the Ukrainian economy“. That part got to me. The US is getting all huffy and puffy about more and more sanctions and actions to get the Ukrainian ball rolling, so that the IMF can spend billions upon billions in some way. WHY?

Chancellor Merkel, like many European spokespeople are trying a softer approach. This is not about which method is better, but about the fact that this is more about the IMF and that what we might laughingly regard as the Ukrainian economy then about anything else. Does anyone remember a place called Syria, where even today people die by the dozen in a civil massacre between the forces of President Assad and their opponents? The ‘crossed‘ red line, even after the second chemical attack is not getting too much visibility is it? Did the powers that want to control forget about those events?

Even more important, the fact that the separatists took out 2 helicopters with missiles (not clear which exactly), is not a reason for stronger concern? I am not accusing Russia at present, but where did these separatists get the weapons to shoot down two helicopters? As I see it, pushing billions into an area that has no stability is just a really bad idea. It seems to me that these issues are not really focussed on. In addition, the NOS news showed us small video bytes of news moments where we see members of US Congress, where they seem to advocate stronger measures and stronger responses. More sanctions, against whom? It seems that the people outside of that circus are ignoring an economical and political play which could hinder their own futures for at least another decade. The fact that Europe will go for another round of dealings for cheap Russian gas seems to elude many people. The US might really like the idea that Russia Gas is turned off, it will give the US the economic option of selling gas to Europe, which will hike the power costs of Europeans by a likely 15%-20%, did the people on both sides of the Atlantic River realise that these events could have long lasting consequences.

Getting back to the Ukrainian issue, I have stated before that the Crimean people were the pushing power to the annexation of Crimea back to Russia. In my mind the Ukrainian government only had itself to blame there. This view is not one I have when we look at the issues in Eastern Ukraine. I cannot deny that Russia is playing a game here, but what game are they playing? Whoever is playing out these events in Eastern Ukraine is doing so on a few levels. First, these are not just all Russians or Pro-Russian separatists. There is equipment, there are droves of people in their support and the events in Kharkov (where a mayor got shot and we see a change of those in charge) also imply that there are levels of orchestration in play, but those behind the screens are not shown.

So why is it so important to get the IMF in there at this point? I am not stating that the Ukraine should not get support, but the EEC and the IMF are so busy getting in there as quick as they could, that we should consider the history on Greece and Cyprus as well. The IMF came in after the fact (which is fair enough). It seems to me that the Ukraine is about something more then ‘just’ the Ukraine and as such questions should be asked. This will all take several other cycles of information crunching when we see that Serbia is also voicing on their upcoming EEC membership. How is Serbia’s economy and how are their balance books?

Is this all about the economy or are the political power controllers in the US not telling us all (the use of political controllers was intentional for those who missed out on a few events). I have stated in the past that from my viewpoint, the US is past its point of bankruptcy (but what do I know), the link here is that the analysts and power brokers downplayed UKIP in the UK and Front Nationale in France. This economic nightmare that Wall Street said could not happen is currently no longer that unthinkable, which makes me wonder why those analysts are on a high 6 figure income. The Farage party is still a strong contender at present and Front Nationale has already made a first sweep in France and the party under President Hollande is now seriously worried. When these two do achieve the drastic change they want, the bang that will sweep the European economy will have a massive impact on the US as well. Perhaps they want to add Ukraine and a few others as soon as possible to soften the blow and to keep alive what will then soon thereafter be known as a puppet currency, which requires the IMF to step in, in as many places it can, so that whatever crash the economy makes then, it will be supervised by one voice that is not the US, the IMF (with the US having the most powerful voice within it).

So in my view, these events are not directly linked, but they have bearing on each other. Is this why Eastern Ukraine is so adamant about no longer being part of the Ukraine? That last part is pure speculation on my side as I have not read any quality reading on why the Easters Ukraine is so militant at present, but it is not just about someone else running Kiev parliament. The reasons are far too militantly played for that. This does not mean that Russia is innocent here, but considering just how much intelligence is gathered on several levels for so many years and on how ‘silent’ the CIA and other players are in that regard. We see the news and we see all those references to keyhole satellites and even as we all knew that Syria was such a powder keg, no one saw anything in Syria. Now we see these escalations in regards to Eastern Ukraine and again, no one seems to see anything here either. So what are those keyhole satellites doing and why are they staying silent. Did no one consider asking that 143 billion dollar funding question?

So why do I care so much about this?

If the Commonwealth is to remain a top economic player, then we must see, acknowledge and consider the options we have and as the UK was never part of the Euro, their currency is safe, but their economic position less so. The UK cannot keep on paying these outrageous amounts, whilst for the most; the EEC members do not keep their budgets in order (they overspend close to 600 billion too much in 2013 alone, this is including the UK). When the Euro tumbles and the Dollar gets the pounding of a lifetime, we must consider what is right, correct and the best for us. Within the Commonwealth those options might be limited to some extent. I always believed that if we as Commonwealth nations (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) as the top economic nations of the Commonwealth pull together, we can weather all these economic storms and help ourselves to a larger and faster recovery to something better then it is at present. Should Nigel Farage pull of the referendum the way he wants it to end, these levels of cooperation would become vital to the UK. I speculated in the past that the crumbling of the US as a super power would instigate a new coalition of perhaps Russia, China and India (purely speculative on my side), then the Commonwealth link would become even more important. These events go further then just some super power game. The US remains so eager to push the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), in there the changes they were considering to Patent Law and Intellectual Properties in general are a concern to many. The face that Australia seems to have blindly accepted it, whilst New Zealand asked the questions and had the reservations both should have had to begin with are also a fact. America fears the abilities that India now has in Generic medication. India sits on a goldmine in an age of faltering health care and the overwhelming need for lower cost solutions in an ageing population. The US pharmacy was dormant for too long, new solutions are delayed again and again. Not unlike the IT where American superiority was boasted and whilst the American Industry embraced iterative evolution, was equalled and now to some extent even surpassed by Asian engineers, the Pharmacy field is in a similar, but not the same predicament. So whilst they focussed on the erectile need of Wall Street, India grew its generic enabling markets. Now America has a problem and the 14 year patent edge will no longer suffice and in the time several players went for the greed driven iterative plan, now slowly are finding themselves on the outside looking in.

This is exactly why the US is in such a state to drive these issues. I reckon that they never expected to be so linked to the Euro and their consequences. I personally feel that not keeping their financial house in order was at the centre of these reasons and like Crimea, it returning to the Russian fold is the worry of the US as the Euro could ‘collapse’ when nations decide to reject the Euro and return to their original local coin. The UK kept the Pound, but when France moves back to the French Franc, the currency that is no longer supported by two major economies will entice others to follow suit. The Dutch PVV has had several investigations to dump the Euro and return to the Dutch Guilder, when that happens party of Geert Wilders (even though the Dutch economy is small in comparison to the large four), the German corner could end up panicking and could move out to preserve itself, is that all such a long leap of faith?

This all will hurt the US in many ways. Now, it no longer aligns it’s maximum borrowing power to one currency, but to well over half a dozen, which should collapse their spending spree for at least two decades, more if the US defaults on even one loan. Consider in the second degree what happens when S&P will have to return to the comparison approach it employed before the Euro was adapted by many European nations, the impact could be massive.

So as the bulk of the people are asleep, relying on bread and games, the powers that would like to remain in control are playing high stakes poker as it is others peoples money and they will not pay the bill when the deal goes sour. We all must do what is best for us. The UK, the Netherlands, the Ukraine and the US. They all have to make their own decisions, whether they are valid for others or not. That is what many forgot as they all were trying to play a game on a global scale, with them all having themselves in focus. Crimea did what they consider to be best for Crimea. Most people forgot about that part, even Kiev forgot about that side of the equation, which makes the entire escalation part even sadder. So, should you consider my view to be invalid (which might be fair enough), consider the amount of actions, many debatable on both sides of the Ukrainian aspect. Consider the amount of NON-actions that were taken during 3 years of Syrian slaughter (on both sides). In my view, just focussing on one part of getting chemicals out of Syria (which is essential), whilst a second chemical attack took place (which had almost no coverage) looks like a joke to me.

Even now today (less then an hour ago), we see Ukrainians acting out against Ukrainian tanks, does that remind you of other similar events?

What lessons are we not learning?

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April 15, 2014 · 11:44

Facts, Fiction or Fantasy

It is the elementary consideration of the three F’s, when we look at the information in regards to the Ukraine. It is not whether we give value or credibility of the news we see coming from Sky News, the Dutch NOS, BBC, CNN or even Fox News. There is a side that remains largely unspoken by many of them.

We see the news on how it is written on how these poor, poor Ukrainians are getting pummelled back into the anti-freedom group called ‘the Russian Federation’. Is that actually a truth?

Yes, we all notice on how well organised and well-armed these pro-Russian antagonists are, but are we seeing all the information correctly? Consider that not a few or a dozen people are in favour of these so called referendums, no; the people are out and about in hundreds and thousands. Many are singing their ‘old’ Russian songs and anthems. This is at the heart of the missing information. Consider that we see a lot more US involvement, whilst Kiev is now asking for the ‘Blue Helmets’ (UNIFIL) intervention. These people are about to get more support in 2 weeks, then the entire Syrian nation got in three years. I hope you remember that little escapade. It is still going on and the amount of casualties remain rising in Syria.

So, why are we all up in arms about Ukraine? Is it because some in Kiev want the European values and we are so upset about those who do not want to share ‘our’ way of life? Consider that the news has all been about implying that these acts are all orchestrated by the Kremlin and whilst it sounds really fun to hear about some politician who is about to get his assets frozen, nothing real can be done. By the way, can anyone tell me when the American Politicians or Wall street big bosses got their assets frozen?

The Ukrainian mess is blowing out of proportions in two ways. The first was the start of the Crimea and in specific the way the west and others responded to the events. I will always consider the fact that Russia did have some involvement here to some extent. The reason is that not having their fingers on the pulse whilst there is a massive naval base there is just not an option. They might not have intervened, or they remain silent on actions, but they knew what was going on. It was in their interest to pretend to be the non-observant here. Yet, that story does not reflect on the other parts of the Ukraine. A simple look at the map can tell us that. The Crimea was a military power point; the rest of the Ukraine is not. It is so simple for Russia to stand at a distance as see this all go up in flames and then offer ‘humanitarian’ aid.

The part that western news is ignoring is the shouting of the people that they have had enough of Kiev corruption. In their mind this will only lead to even worse times. Can we even blame them? Look at what the IMF has wrought (not through their actions through), Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus. Massive debts, then IMF/EU financial support and after that austerity and continues after it started to choke a population. Government administrations get re-elected, no one goes to jail and some end up with a massive amount of money and favours. Is it such a leap of faith that Ukraine, a nation where corruption is such an issue, a place where now its population is just too scared to see what happens next? Consider the news in the last week, where we read that Christine Lagarde stated that the IMF was no longer forcing structural changes (http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/13/imf-no-longer-forces-structural-change). Was that just a small illumination of change as fear is gripping certain population groups? Consider the statement that was given last week that ‘the IMF was a victim of US politics‘, it is enough to scare many people. The statements of the IMF, which were also stated by Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey, that the US seems to be playing their own political games on regards to the IMF. None of these issues were raised, even though it is stated in several sources that the Ukraine is about to receive 9 billion in aid from the IMF. Now, I am not objecting in regards to the aid, yet, whilst it is known by all the players above a certain levels (at least 4 levels below Lagarde, Obama and Putin), that the Ukraine has a history and environment of corruption. None of that is properly addressed, so whilst 9 billion will go to the Ukraine, how much will end up out of the hands of the corrupt? Misreading gas meters, government invoices and the list goes on, how much of those will get paid by the 9 billion? Still wondering why the Ukrainian people are so anxious?

None of these matters are looked at (with proper levels of investigation) by the press, which makes for some of these newscasts a negotiable level of ‘pro-western’ advertisements, making the situation worse.

What the press is unwilling to illuminate, is that at the centre of these troubles are the pro-western politicians. They had no issue disposing of its former president, yet when they themselves are rejected by the Crimea and as it seems by the people at large, everyone shouts foul!

That part is an issue, no matter how many journalists ignore it. It is of course also a nice point of light as well; my income might drastically improve if the cold war is back. There is of course the badge of benefits we see with new movies (like a new impossible mission going up against their old adversary), the video games and in my case more data analyses. All those international locations that would need Palantir Government installed, trained and consulted upon.

Is this the reality? I do not know, the pressure between east and west is growing, so it remains a consideration. Consider however the events in Syria and that red line that was drawn (by the US), nothing happened. Is it because US intervention might get some of their oil benefits revoked? Is Syria not an interesting nation? (Which seems odd, as the pressures there would influence their long-time ally Israel.) So what is the press not investigating and what are we not getting told in this instance?

Consider that when you watch the news tonight and listen to what they say exactly, because you will hear suppositions and carefully phrased implied events, but where were the facts and more important, why are we not getting all the facts? That last one is important, as it turns a fact driven newscast into a work of fiction or even fantasy, which is getting the Ukrainians so angry and bothered.

In the end I still ask the question that is at the centre of this all. Why did the EEC not let the Ukraine be? This is not a statements against dealing with the Ukraine as a business partner, but in the light where the economies are down to such a degree, when the EEC is still dealing with the new partners and the overall debt levels are far exceeding acceptable levels in many of the EEC nations, growing is not a solution, it is a sure path to implosion, which will leave most of the EEC in a destitute state. That part is also seen as the two big national influencers, namely the French ‘Front Nationale’ and the British UKIP. When they do get the referendum to fall in their favour, the EEC will be in a mess that they will not be able to fix. Is the adding of as many nations as possible a desperate act to float the EEC at that point? (That was an actual question I am phrasing myself!)

The last one is likely to be a mere speculation (read fiction), from my side. Yet, considering the steps as we saw the EEC change and grow from 2008 onwards, after economic blow after blow. Now Greece is selling bonds again, whilst at present, their economy is in no way ready to deal with the old debts as well as the additional new ones. Are you still surprised to see the Ukrainian actions?

I am not stating that Russia is in such a great state, but there is every indication that they are not in a bad state either (with massive parts if Europe depending on Russian Gas), add to that, the fact that the Middle East is now diversifying by making Russian arms deals and other deals, which should indicate that they will order less from the west. Cars, electronics and other needs are now more and more moved to Asian makers like China, India, Myanmar et al. Some was already there, but slowly the list of migration is growing. Australia will lose massive amounts of jobs as the car industry moves away (not one brand, but all brands within the next 36 months). We see that airlines are slimming down and as the news reaches us day after day, often just after some ‘good’ news reached us, the balance is not looking good. The west is becoming less and less the place to be.

I do agree that the economy is slowly getting better, but it is also changing. Both have an impact on most of us and I still believe that actual economic improvements are not enjoyed by many of us until late 2015. All these factors are linked, as they are told to all. This is because the Ukrainian people are also watching the news, reading it on the internet and the picture shown is not a good one. So, when they felt that they were about to get the short end of the stick, they all rose up, because the devil you know (Russia) beats the devil you don’t (EEC). That part the big bosses all forgot about and when they applied pressure, they lost the Ukraine. Now the escalations there might not be so much orchestrated, but the stories, as they came from their ‘new’ government is sounding less and less honest in their ears. They want the old days back and in all fairness, can we blame them? Moreover, are the involved nations even happy to add another nation who is on the brink of bankruptcy?

These questions have not been dealt with at all. The last one is one we should all ask ourselves. Why intervene in the Ukraine, whilst politicians have no solution at all for those in hardship and dying in Syria? That issue reflects directly on the people of Jordan and Palestine, especially after a second chemical attack, whether we believe these events to be stories of fact, fiction or fantasy. We are witnessing iterations of ‘the cost of doing business’ on a global scale. It is however the local people who pay the bill through taxation and the Ukrainians seem to be very unhappy about the changes and the bill they will get presented with.

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Tagged as Australia, Blue helmets, Christine Lagarde, corruption, EEC, France, Front Nationale, Greece, IMF, Italy, Joe Hockey, Jordan, Kiev, Lagarde, Obama, Palantir Government, Palestine, Putin, Russia, Russian Federation, Spain, Syria, UKIP, Ukraine, UN, UNIFIL, US

April 13, 2014 · 00:22

Dangers of clarity

There is a level of danger when you see with too much clarity. This is a statement in the subjective, if we look at what we examine the statements we make ourselves, but it is seen in the objective we judge those same statements when stated by others. The initial crux is that both are of course subjective, as our views are set towards our judgement of whomever the other is who is making the statement.

Even in my case, no matter what evidence I add as a link, it is a link of a newspaper, online news presence or even online newscasts. As the reader regards that entity as a valid one, it remains objective or subjective and is rejected as we do not agree with it. That view does not change whether we use the Guardian, Sky News, the Jerusalem Post or the Haaretz.

One of the issues in play is the Arms deal that Russia seems to have completed with Egypt, whilst the funding is coming from Saudi Arabia. (at http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Egypt-seeks-Russian-arms-that-could-undermine-treat-with-Israel-344465 as well as http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/In-sign-of-warming-ties-Russian-military-delegation-visits-Egypt-348150)

Having too much clarity is at times just as dangerous as being too honest. If you consider that there is no such thing as being too honest, then mention to your wife that her behind is way big in that dress. Good luck getting diner or getting ‘some’ in general. No matter how good the connection is between people, being too honest tends to sour the milk, so to speak. Trust me, I have applied it as a deterrent to remain single and it has worked like a charm these last two decades.

The issues that is connected to this all is whether one of US ‘greatest’ allies in all this is now footing the bill for Egypt on Russian arms. The quote “Egypt completed a $2 billion arms deal with Russia, financed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, an Egyptian newspaper reported last month” is at the heart of this.

So, what is linked to this? Why not a US arms deal? If we look at this, then this is just the economic boost America needs. My worry is that this is another signal that America is showing us how ‘great’ there economy is growing, but is that truly the case? Is this about something else? Perhaps this is payback for the frozen aid from the US, which was supposed to get lifted this year. The article has however two quotes that are also in play. The first one is “Egyptians see the US as an unreliable ally, stated the report, which led Egyptian army chief Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ‘to seek Moscow’s help in diversifying the country’s sources of military procurement’”, the second one is “Despite reassurances from Egyptian officials, the Russian weapons deal – if concluded – portends a gradual reduction in Washington’s ability to control the quality and quantity of weapons that Cairo receives, and to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region“.

This gives us two new issues that will give pressure in the Middle East. As the US state department is implied to have dropped the ball, the issue that US currency does not hold the value it held only 3 years ago gives us also two fears (which I will get back to in a moment). The second issue is that Egypt is feeling played and as such; Saudi Arabia is now stepping in to give leadership to the Middle East (or so is implied).

In the first part, the two fears are that as the Dollar is degraded in the mind of the oil producing nations, the fallout I expected to see later, might come a lot faster than even I imagined. The second fear is that if the influence of the US dwindles in the Middle East, the parties that remained ‘neutral’ in the Middle East are now likely to instigate terror attacks on the state of Israel and even on each other.

Now for the kicker in all this, there is information in the Israeli papers, but no one else seems to be onto this. Not the Guardian, not CNN, not Sky News, so is this arms deal real or not? According to the Canadians (at http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/general-dynamics-canada-wins-10b-deal-with-saudi-arabia-1.2537934), we see that Saudi Arabia has set up shop for themselves for a little over 10 billion spanning the next 14 years, so this gives another view. What is real and what is actually happening? I get that some papers will ‘drop’ a story, but will they ALL drop it? This is at the center of all of this.

So in the subjective we read “Israel is in danger“, in the objective it becomes “is Israel in danger“. A movie comparison might be Beetlejuice versus Candyman. From the Israeli papers we see a Wes Craven story play out, yet the absence of these news stories in pretty much all the large newspapers implies that we are watching a less frightening version by Tim Burton.

The larger issue here is that these events also contribute to the integrity of Israel. Both Israeli politics as well as Mossad, both have a responsibility here. It cannot be about allegations and unsubstantiated information on arms deals. This only intensifies the pressures that are already close to a breaking point. As the Ukrainian issues are evolving, the last thing we need are wild wild west stories on arms deals that do not exist (or do they?).

That part becomes question when we see the BBC news (at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26177792). The article was from Feb 13^th, not the worst runner up gift discussion when we consider that pesky cherub Valentine (Feb 14^th for the non-romantics under us). So the news was there, what is interesting that it gives credibility that this arms deal could be in a finalising stage, but then, why is no one looking at this? This is the deal I had not mentioned in my article ‘Setting the stage‘ on March 27^th, which means that if this is true, then the ‘financial pressure‘ posturing is even less sincere from the US and Europe in regards to the Crimean events.

Still, the actual truth is for now an unknown, which gets us back to the title. Clarity in these events will force us to view possible outstanding dangers, the only question remains is ‘who faces clarity and who is in real danger?’; consider how the truth of one event can change this around on several players.

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Tagged as CBC, Egypt, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Haaretz, Israel, Jerusalem Post, Mossad, Russia, Saudi Arabia

March 27, 2014 · 20:31

Setting the stage

The Ukrainian escalation is slowly seeing some events, but not in a good way. We have seen several speeches as well as actions against certain heavy weight big wigs in-crowd at the Kremlin. Will these actions hold weight? Time will tell. I went over several facts in the blog article ‘Strongarm, Intimidate, Terrorise‘ which I published on March 18^th. I also made a coalition mention in my blog article ‘Foreign and Domestic‘ on September 12^th 2013, where I stated at the very end “that view might partially depend on the steps the growing New World Order coalition of Russia, China and India will take“. In the last two days we saw the following events.

1. India, Russia to sign deal for anti-tank ammunition (source: The Indian Express, et al) for $2.4B.
2. Crimea Crisis Pushes Russian Energy to China from Europe (source: Bloomberg) for $350B.
3. Private Chinese firm to buy 100 regional Sukhoi jets (source: Reuters, et al) for $3.5B.
4. ONGC, Russia’s Rosneft may join forces on oil flows (source: Reuters).

This is just in the last two days. So, yes, we might think that we are putting economic pressure on Putin, but are we?
The last mention is that if we persist, there is every chance that the cheaper gas meant for Europe could be redirected to the Indian consumer. That is exactly the fear I voiced in the story involving the Crimea (Strongarm, Intimidate, Terrorise). The Reuters article also states “Rosneft said it had also agreed with ONGC they may join forces in Rosneft’s yet-to-be built liquefied natural gas plant in the far east of Russia to the benefit of Indian consumers”, which implies that Russia will get additional Dineros (aka loads of money) to build that plant, or at least parts of it.
Europe basically has agreed to a spitting contest which could cost them. There are still moral sides to consider, both sides states that they are correct and Crimean’s who saw a loss of income for thousands of households and desperately tried to save them to remain with Russia. The Ukrainian top really did not think that part through (as I see it). Did they think that forcing Russia to Novorossiysk, leaving the Crimea without one of their biggest consumers would not have an impact? I still have questions on the legality of the ‘transfer’ from Ukraine to Russia of the Crimea region, but I do not have a proper view on the legitimacy of the referendum as such (from a pure legal point). The fact that this is what the Crimea people themselves want (for a massive part) is largely ignored by the press. I will state that the NOS at least tried to talk to a few of these people and many wanted to return to their Russian past (they were also very assertive in not letting others talk on their Ukrainian view).
So what will happen next? Let’s face it, 4 deals do not make for a Chinese, Indian and Russian summer party, but these are massive deals and this shows that the coalition growth I expected is now showing more rapid growth, likely because of the Ukrainian events. For me, I am a business man and as such, I have downloaded the Sukhoi S-100 PDF’s and see if I can start a trainings company to train the Chinese crews on using the flight and navigation instruments of the Sukhoi S-100 (just me trying to get creative). 100 planes mean at least 400 crews, which is 800 pilots and 400 engineers, so 1200 prospective trainees to train. At $750 a day, I could be employed for at least 3 years. So that might be an option as life in Sydney is pretty expensive. People might snipe at this thought, but consider the ego contest we see growing in west versus east. There is every indication that energy prices are likely to rise by unacceptable amounts soon enough. We see that governments are more and more selling off their healthcare and other services to meet budgets, which means more costs for the consumer soon enough. A step by the way for which a government cannot get faulted, but we the consumer still get to pay the bill.
As unemployment rates are still growing to the extent it does, we will have to look at alternatives. If we are willing to work hard, then it is not the worst idea to consider Russian companies like Sukhoi and Chinese companies like Huawei. The next wave is for those who are willing to put in the hours and as several businesses want to grow into several domestic markets, which they will one way or the other.
So getting out there and set the wave so you can be there at the beginning and get to the higher level of the pyramid when it grows above the others is never a bad idea.
Should you get questioned on basis of morality of choice then consider the powerbrokers of Wall Street who got millions after the 2008 crash, The events around Silvio Berlusconi (not the intimate ones), Karolos Papoulias, President of Greece who was in office when the Goldman Sachs creative accounting event was discovered. It is not the question whether he knew what was going on, as president the Euro will stop at his desk in the end. The Finance ministers over that period were Georgios Alogoskoufis, Yannis Papathanasiou and Giorgos Papakonstantinou. Giorgos Papakonstantinou was the person revealing what had happened before he took the office and negotiated the initial 110 billion Euro loan, which makes his acts the one of high moral fibre. The list goes on and on and on. So, consider that many high elected holier than thou politicians have often taken the coin road as this was not illegal or criminal, it is just the cost of doing business. When it comes to businesses there are even more questions. When we see the bad deal the people at Boeing got, as reported by several media outlets in January 2014 as well as the technical issues we see popping up with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. We have been looking at American companies for too long, perhaps it is time to look at areas where the runner up is hungry to become the biggest one, as they could be the source of your next good meal. So several elements are slowly setting the economic stage for 2014 and 2015.
If your livelihood is in jeopardy, where will you look next?

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Tagged as bloomberg, Boeing 787 Dreamliner, China, Europe, Georgios Alogoskoufis, Huawei, India, Karolos Papoulias, reuters, Rosneft, Russia, Sukhoi, Sukhoi S-100, The Indian Express, Wall Street, Yannis Papathanasiou and Giorgos Papakonstantinou

March 27, 2014 · 00:16

The NSS 2014 danger

The Nuclear Security Summit 2014 is at an end. The circus of 53 delegation members, the security forces and other parties are leaving or have left the Netherlands. This summit needs to exist; there is no doubt about it. As long as the powers that be discuss and negotiate on these matters, the better the chance that the chance of escalations and extreme consequences remain at an all-time low. This is a basic pragmatic truth.
I do however worry about one aspect. An aspect I do not completely agree with, but an aspect that has long reaching consequences and as such the next generation will get additional responsibilities in regards to cleaning, aside from the economic mess that most leaders are leaving the next generation.
The issue I have is one that will have a long term impact, much longer than the three generations who are about to inherit the current economic debt, especially in Japan, America, France, Italy, Spain and Greece.
What is the issue? The issue us that there is a strong voice and movement to steer away from highly enriched Uranium (20%-85%) and use low enriched Uranium (less than 20%). The logic given is to make sure that the chance of extreme elements getting their hands on weapons grade Uranium becomes even lower. That part makes perfect sense, yet the danger that was, is now getting a lot larger on two fronts, it is simple and basic logic.

1. To get the same amount of energy, a nuclear reactor will have to use between 150% and 325% nuclear fuel to get the same amount of energy. You can find some basic knowledge at http://world-nuclear.org/Nuclear-Basics/How-does-a-nuclear-reactor-make-electricity-/. If for example one rod of highly enriched Uranium gives us one week of power, then we need a lot more rods of low enriched Uranium, but we still will not get the same amount of energy over that time, so the rods would need replacement sooner. No matter how the reactor is replaced or upgraded, the reactor ends up with less steam for electricity.
This part can be shown using a simple electric stove. Have two identical pots of water, set one stove to high and one to medium. You will see that it simply takes longer to get the medium plate with water boiling. Now that part is not the issue, waiting a little longer is not the big thing, when the water starts to boil, switch both off and now see how quickly the water of the medium plate goes off the boil and the water will soon thereafter no longer boils, which means no more steam for electricity.
The test is simple and basic and several factors are cast aside, but the foundation should come across, reactors will need more rods, which mean that the stockpiles of depleted Uranium would grow in excess of 250%, which is part of the first big issue, because as we can read at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/uranium-and-depleted-uranium/ that the half-life of Depleted Uranium (DU) goes into the centuries, which gives us the nasty side effect that we are growing the stockpile faster and faster and the required space will increase, using spaces that allows for nothing near it for hundreds of generations.
2. The extreme element. Yes, we all agree that the idea of any extremist getting its hands on highly enriched Uranium is truly the stuff of nightmares. Yet, this is not the biggest danger. By many parties in several fields (law enforcement and intelligence) there is a clear and present fear that extremists will get their hands on depleted Uranium and as such will create a dirty bomb with conventional means and mix in depleted Uranium for good measure. That scary effect will not just strike fear in the people. It creates a simple way to make people vacate complete zip codes in the blink of an eye. Now consider that the changes will create up to three times as much DU. This gives us more need of storage, and like with every shipping, the more you ship, the larger the danger becomes that one package ‘falls’ of a truck and into the wrong hands.
So these are the two issues I have. I am not against the banning of Highly Enriched Uranium, but do the people outside the NSS circle realise the consequences of such a decision? Of course all this will come with a massive amount of additional costs, which will again drive power prices up as it is a related cost.
The big danger related to all this is that there is no real solution. Those naive enough to state ban all nuclear power should realise that the pollution and the price of creating energy will spike on both counts. I am not against those big propellers in the sea or on land, because it is clean energy and anyone complaining about the view better take a nice look at the alternative. Those people will not volunteer to live next to a nuclear plant either. The propeller might not offer the greatest view, but in many area’s it does work getting them clean energy. However, I am digressing from the topic.
The change does introduce another danger. The short term security we might get through this is replaced with the long term dangers that we and several next generations will deal with. the danger is that too many people will ignore the issues, just like the national debts many faced and now all are complaining about the cut backs we are all dealing with, the Nuclear stockpile will grow slowly and we will not see or worry about the space needed, but when space is gone, it will be gone forever for many generations.
Nuclear power places us between a rock and an irradiated hard place. We are still no closer to truly have an alternative that really works at present and most nations no longer have the budgets to make any solid change in this regard for the near future. I like the wind alternative, yet I have never been against Nuclear power. Living in Sweden, seeing the benefit of the Swedish power supplier Vattenfal (in my wallet) is reason for this. The quote “Sweden’s primary energy mix is now 65 percent zero-carbon and composed of a blend of hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass, with almost no coal” found at ‘the breakthrough’, shows that nuclear power is an essential part for many nations if they want to decrease their carbon footprint. Sweden might have had the benefit of biomass and hydropower, but many nations do not, which makes them stronger dependent on other solutions. Wind and solar offer a little relief, but without nuclear power they will not get there, that is the part many activists forget about.
So the NSS had made a call, it is a hard one, but is it the right one? There are a few unknown elements, so I cannot tell. Yet, I do believe that short term solution is too dangerous against long term grief, but there I must also caution myself, how much long term grief will we face?
Consider that the US alone has stored 700,000 metric tons of DU (at http://web.ead.anl.gov/uranium/faq/storage/faq16.cfm), in addition (at http://web.ead.anl.gov/uranium/faq/mgmt/faq27.cfm) we see what is required and some insight of the costs involved, when some nations switch (some had already switched) and the amount triples, how will the costs add up then, more important, where will we find the space?

So here we see the danger of the NSS decision, but is it really a dangerous one?

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Tagged as Depleted Uranium, High enriched Uranium, highly enriched Uranium, NSS, nuclear power, nuclear reactor, Nuclear Security Summit, Vattenfal

March 18, 2014 · 06:14

Strongarm, Intimidate, Terrorise

As we see the news of sanctions hitting our eyes via the news on TV, the Newspapers and the internet, some will conclude that the third cold war is now officially starting. Yet, some might have the question within their minds ‘who has the moral high ground?’, or better yet, what brought these escalations about?

Now, I have missed the cold war, whether you stare through a sniper scope overlooking Lakhta air base in a video game, or those who needed to take another look at the Arkhangelsk naval base because they serviced the Typhoons (in 1983 a genuine bringer of nightmares to NATO). The Cold War was a war, but one with its own rules, regulations, needs and wants.

But is this the same as the first or the second cold war? The first cold war was in itself about a disagreements in Ideology, there was however another side to it all. This was basically a pissing contest between the Kremlin and the White House on who was trained better, tools were the best and who got away with the most. The 70’s as it was depicted by John Le Carre with ‘the Circus’ and the after the fact knowledge that several members at the top of MI-6 had a better knowledge of Russian then those living in Moscow. Even with that set back, I always felt that the NATO side was victorious! I missed most of it and did not get hit with events until 1982-1984.

This new cold war we are about to face is something different. This is a lot less about ideology and a lot more about the greed of a chosen few. Let us take a look at the Ukraine and the Crimea region. Most will not remember the original Crimean War, even though one of the most famous names in history had her origin there. It was Florence Nightingale; slightly less famous was Mary Seacole who also earned her a place in the history books. In those days the direct reason for the war that was there was all about religion, specifically on access of the holy places in what is now called Israel (an area that was in those days part of the Ottoman Empire). It is the one time that the Russian Navy got it hide tanned (not the best moment in Russian Naval History), even though it held out for a year, dealing with England, France and the Ottoman Empire was a cake that turned out to be slightly too large for them.

I think it is important to ‘trivialise’ that part. It should also be noted that Russia started this fight with the Ottoman Empire because Russia held that it had a right to protect the Orthodox Christians. These events are important, as those contained the darkest days for the Russian Navy.

Now when we go to today we have other issues to content with. Crimea has always been a cultural hot potato. It will take too long to explain the issues (and I am not an expert in that regard), there are several ties that were severed when Khrushchev placed it all within the border of the Ukraine; he never considered the idea that Ukraine would be anything but part of the ‘Russian brotherhood’.

It is the changes in the Ukraine that are at the centre of the Crimean escalation. As I see the Russian side, it seems to me that this would happen no matter what. The entire issue with the Black Sea navy has never been regarded positively by the Ukraine. The issues there have been going on for almost 7 years now, even though Ukraine has valid reasons for ‘demanding’ certain changes, it is a little far-fetched for Russia to accept the security of its Navy (the Black Sea Fleet) thought the Ukrainian security services. If America has any objections in that regard, then consider the issues several people had in the past with the ‘idiots’ patrolling and guarding at the US part of Soesterberg Air base, I had more than one issue with a few US guards, even though I was on the other side of the fence wearing a Dutch uniform.

So, we can agree that like the Americans, the Russians will not trust the guarding and protection of their defence forces by ‘outsiders’. This is one of the issues, which are at the very heart of this. The second one is one I discussed in an earlier blog named ‘Hot air for the Ukraine‘ on March 1^st. The EEC is too much about adding new members and not about maintaining and setting a stable financial and economic platform. That part has been proven by many, but the issue goes wider (at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/car030514a.htm). The IMF is still finalising the fact finding mission and the amount needed for the Ukraine substantial. Another issue in this regard can be found at Reuters where we see the following quote “If the West wants Ukraine to align with them rather than Russia they will have to offer a carrot and the carrot could be better terms on the debt” (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/us-ukraine-crisis-debt-idUSBREA2G0E020140317)

And why does the west want this, Economic prosperity? Ukraine has a massive amount of debt! The only consequence many will initially see is that Ukrainians will suddenly relocate by droves of thousands to get that better future in the west (which is fair enough). That pressure gets added to the issues already dragging many down in Western Europe which are still unstable at present, so adding nations with bad budgets whilst the rest remains in a bad shape is just bad politics and bad judgement. Another view from the IMF can be seen in the Reuters article (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/25/us-ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSBREA1O1DT20140225)

“The IMF has consistently said that Ukraine’s economic policies would create unsustainable large external and fiscal imbalances. It has called on Kiev to cut its large fiscal deficit, phase out energy subsidies, strengthen the banking sector, and allow the exchange rate to fall. A freely floating hryvnia currency and higher domestic gas prices are unpopular steps previously rejected by the Kiev”

So they want money, but are unwilling to do what needs to be done? How is this in any way a good deal in any shape or form? I will grant that energy prices will always be unpopular, but this is all about a change where the government does not want change to begin with.

Now we get to the good stuff, namely intimidate and terrorise. These are basically synonyms for strongarming, and now it is the west doing this. Sky News reported that more sanctions are in place (at http://news.sky.com/story/1227143/ukraine-sanctions-target-putin-aides)

So basically, individuals are now targeted for alleged involvement of government actions. Is this even legal? It is interesting that these events are calling for sanctions. Consider that in the US one in seven lives below the poverty line. Now also consider the events as we saw the hard working people at Wal-Mart getting hit financially, needing food stamps and needing government support, whilst the owners are multi billionaires. Unless the Honorable African American in charge in the White House (aka President Barack Obama) is a coward, I hereby officially demand and he should officially call for similar sanctions which are to be placed against the members of the Walton family! I understand that sanctions are a tactical choice, yet to ignore your home base, whilst going after a few individuals (whose guilt is still officially in question) is nothing less than a joke. The fact that the advisors are hit with sanctions, yet, the person in charge (President Putin) is not getting any sanctions makes the joke even more pathetic.

Another issue we should not ignore is that the bulk of the people in Crimea WANT to be part of Russia. Now, that would never be my personal choice and I believe it is the choice of many non-Crimean not to go that path, but the idea that their choice is not the choice of the USA and the EEC and therefor rejected is a laughing matter, where is THEIR freedom of choice? In opposition, I do have an issue with the legality of that part too. I do acknowledge that Crimea is part of the Ukraine, yet the Ukraine is ‘only’ 72 years old. The issues we now see in Belgium as that nations is likely to split into two parts, whilst that nations is a lot older then the Ukraine is not causing this level of concern (mainly because it hasn’t happened yet). In my view, it seems a lot more legal if Crimea became independent. Consider the immediate consequence of that act. If the referendum is regarded as illegal, what will happen and what will the reaction be as referendums are called over the next 3 years as parties decide to secede from the EEC/Euro, as these requests are called for by Nigel Farage (UKIP/UK), Geert Wilders (PVV/NL) and Marine Le Penn (FN/FR). Will we suddenly see calls for illegality by the USA and the IMF? Consider that, because these steps are likely to push the EEC and therefor the USA over the edge of bankruptcy.

As a ‘supporter’ of the cold wars, tactically the entire escalation works nicely for NATO. If Ukraine does enter the EEC, then it comes with a nice ‘free’ naval base in a perfectly placed tactical position, with direct striking capabilities on several Russian fronts (still surprised that Russia is so against it?).

My issue remains that the power players in this game are all motivated by greed. You do not give out 35 billion unless you get 70-135 billion in return. The Ukraine does not have such economic prospects in any near future. Consider in addition that once this happens, the cheap gas deal that the Ukraine currently has will then is also be null and void, which means that the people in the Ukraine will have to content with an energy price hike of at least 20%. Look at your own heating bills (especially in the UK). How does it feel to pay 20% more?

The last side to the Ukraine is one that will hit all Europeans (and Americans). Please do not take my word for that, the paper was written by Anna Yemelianova and is called ‘A Diagnosis of Corruption in Ukraine‘ (at http://www.againstcorruption.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/WP-14-Diagnosis-of-Corruption-in-Ukraine-new.pdf). You see, the big business boffins currently whispering into the ears of government officials in the west tend to ignore issues that do not cause THEM any grief, but those who pay their taxes and small businesses alike will get to deal with this to some degree in one way or another. From the very beginning of that paper where we see “Ukraine is a country is with wide scale and systemic corruption which makes a crucial influence on the economic, political, social and other spheres of public life“, it will be clear that whatever you pump into their economy, a percentage will end up with a man like Semion Yudkovich Mogilevich, a man who should be regarded as one of the most powerful men (some state the most powerful man) in the history of the Russian Mafia. Consider the end of the report where it states “21% of respondents in Ukraine reported paying a bribe in the past 12 months according to Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer 2009“.

This gives a clear indication, I might even state, this is in my personal view clear evidence that the numbers reported towards the IMF in regards to the economic support is underestimated by at least 30%. I will be bold enough to take my view one step further. When the Russian powerbase walks away, the floodgates that minimised some of this form of damage will be gone completely. It is a side that so many ignore, yet, when people in the News in the UK and the Netherlands read about these ‘Romanian gangs’, take heed for what happens when the Ukraine is added to the mix. These events are easily ignored by the power players as they remain out of reach, but the rest of the people in those area’s (99.98443213% roughly) will become a target one way or another.

Am I against the Ukraine joining the EEC? No, as I stated, it is about the freedom of choice. I do however have several reservations on why certain elements want to Ukraine to become part of the EEC no matter the cost. They have certain intentions and the press seems to be taking extreme care not to go anywhere near that part of the equation.

So who is strongarming, who is intimidating and who is terrorising? Three answers that call for a name, an entity or an organisation. So who exactly are the players and why are we seeing way too little on certain sides in the press?

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Tagged as Anna Yemelianova, Arkhangelsk, Barack Obama, Black Sea Fleet, EEC, Florence Nightingale, Geert Wilders, IMF, John Le Carre, Lakhta air base, Marine Le Penn, Mary Seacole, MI-6, NATO, Nigel Farage, Ottoman Empire, President Barack Obama, President Putin, reuters, Semion Yudkovich Mogilevich, Sky News, Soesterberg Air base, Ukraine

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