Tag Archives: Conservatives

May 9, 2015 · 14:07

The after election party

I have had a few words in the past in several ways. I for one thought the UKIP would become a much larger player, this did not happen, but is that fact totally true?

You see, when we look at the very nice full election map the Guardian made available (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/may/07/live-uk-election-results-in-full), we are shown an interesting option, not when we look at the winner, but when we select ‘vote share UKIP‘. Now we see the view I had, which is to be honest a minority view. The purple map show one true dark spot (the one area they got), but we also see a fair bit of purple all over Britain. Hartlepool, Haywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Boston & Skegness, East of London and North-West of Birmingham. All areas that have clear UKIP representation, and even though not a winner, the European events as they are unfurling could make these new powerbases. But that is not for the immediate at present. The Conservatives could diffuse the situation and see how the minds of these areas can change, because Nigel Farage is down, but he is in no way out at present. You see, in all these areas UKIP came second and in some cases only by a small minority that this loss became fact. This means that in those areas trouble will brew for whomever held that constituency.

There is another side for the Guardian, that map they produced (which would not work during the elections for me), is still an amazing source of information, so I hope that they will release it as an app for mobile tablets as the information will be useful to many people who keep an eye out on British politics.

So how wrong was I? That is the question I ask myself. I felt comfortable with my predictions and the map (as well as the numbers) show that UKIP could have been much more powerful, but why that did not happen is less easily answered. You see, as we focus on Nigel Farage, we need to consider how well and how well supported Jane Collins was for Rotherham. The same question counts for John Bickley in Heywood & Middleton as well as Philip Broughton in Hartlepool. Three politicians who got close to make Nigel cry out loudly. UKIP seems very happy with the amount of votes they got, so as the Liberal Democrats move into the basement office space, UKIP is on the way up. This is not me poking fun of the Liberal Democrats, I tend not to kick a man when he is down. If that person is a militant extremist, I might shoot that person in the head, but this is politics, not a warzone (even though the difference in a week before elections is really hard to tell).

You see, when you look at the vote share map, but now, when we look a Liberal Democrats, an odd situation occurs. I am not talking about the massive losses they led, but wherever the Liberal Democrats have a decent footholds, UKIP tends to have near zero influence. This is exactly what I mean when I said ‘the Conservatives could diffuse the situation’. It is almost like the Liberal Democrats are a conservative buffer, keeping UKIP even further from any chance of being a contender. Perhaps there is the difference, but also the danger. If we accept that those moving away from the Conservative, or not entirely ready to be conservatives are Liberal Democrats (or UKIP), then it stands to reason that the Liberal Democrats could be the new power base for UKIP if they can get their acts right. If too many of the LD goes towards UKIP, the initial prediction I made would be exceeded by a lot, which also means that the Conservatives will have to start wooing the LD in a few ways from day 2.

Now that Nick Clegg has resigned (not sure if that was a good idea), we need to consider two parts.

The first part is that the data seems to imply that the Liberal Democrats had a two sided battle, one not moving to either Conservatives or UKIP (remember that UKIP had a massive addition of votes, but not victories), second to move the party forward. In this I actually like the headline the Telegraph offered (who would have thunk that!), which read ‘History will judge Nick Clegg more kindly than the voters have‘, I think I can second that to some degree. In my view Nick Clegg was not a true leader as I saw it, more of a follower of the Conservatives for as far as it benefitted the Liberal Democrats. It is not much of a standpoint, but it is a valid one. The pilot fish does not traverse the oceans on his own power and as long as the conservative and Liberal Democrat path are in the same direction it is not a biggie.

Yet, I must state that I never saw Nick Clegg as a leader, but was he a decent leader of the Liberal Democrats? That part remains, because who can take over? The four names that usually follow are Danny Alexander, David Laws, Lord Ashdown and Tim Farron. We can leave Lord Ashdown aside, he is the man who gave serious life to the Liberal Democrats, a youthful youngling, born slightly before 1950, originally from New Delhi. Former diplomat, intelligence officer and long-time MP for Yeovil, in the county of Somerset. My initial thought? I do not think he will return as the leader of the LD, but he will be there, as a man behind the curtains, the party orchestrator holding the strings and pulling those (read: advising) that will lead the Liberal Democrats back to strength.

Danny Alexander has a new ghost to fight, as former MP to Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, he faces other demons (one named SNP), no matter how LD minded he is, the link that would be drawn between the LD and the SNP are too dangerous to allow them to be voiced too often. There is also every chance that the SNP will woe this capable politician down the road, that is not a given, just a possibility. David Laws is another matter, so I will skip him for a moment, which leaves us with Tim Farron. My vote would go towards him for one wrong reason, which is the fact that David Laws and Lords Ashdown are both Yovillians. David pretty much took over from his lordship leaving us with a student mentor relationship, whether true or false, this is how it looks ant that can be deadly in politics. There is no doubt that David Laws will remain the power player in the LD, but I fear not that of leader. There are other members that could rise to the occasion, people like Gerald Vernon-Jackson that could rise to it all if the right push and mentor for higher office comes around, but for now my focus remains Tim Farron. The fact that in the past he was able to sway Tories to vote his way only gives weight to his ‘fighting’ spirit. Will my view pan out to be the correct one? I dare not say, but I do know that the Liberal Democrats have less than a week to make a decision, because the members of a party without a leader tend to go shopping as soon as possible for the ‘leader’ that will represent their issues the best and there is absolutely no chance that they are all considering the Conservative party.

For now, the UK remains conservative and I hope that they will get the deficit and the total debt down, because the reality that Greece is about to bring to the table is not a nice one and the UK better be prepared for what follows, because the Guardian had one article that smouldered sarcasm called ‘nine reasons to be cheerful’, in it there is mention on how Farage lost his constituency, which is unfortunate for Nigel, but the one that does truly matter is the one quoting “Someone at the Treasury gets to write a hilarious ‘I’m afraid there is no money’ note to themselves this morning“, yes, that is true, but let’s not forget that this is mostly due to the failings of Labour, which got the Conservatives re-elected. The nation and nations at large are facing the consequences of previous governments overspending by so much that European Austerity is here to stay for at least two administrations that are to come, this one not included. So, when you consider the ‘no money left‘ issue, then also realise that above all that Greece will need an additional 30 billion (perhaps even more), an amount of which the UK gets to pay a share, the economy has been misrepresented on a European level and the economists at the Guardian have no clue as to why the predictions are so far off. Here we see the exact same as the wrongful ‘hung parliament‘ prediction, the people are no longer believing the unrealistic promises that came from Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, with the added part that they were almost on the side of Nigel Farage, but found him a little too extreme and above all, the press is no longer trusted with the ‘predictions’ they make, especially economic ones.

So as I feel that UKIP is down but not out, there is a real danger that many places will consider UKIP to be the choice next time, many did, but not enough to sway electorates, the fact that they got in second in too many places is downplayed for now and will become an issue down the road, because the upcoming decade of Austerity is not a nice one. The Greek issue should have been slammed down hard, but those relying to survive on Status Quo are too powerful for now, that is until the next European general elections that will impact the UK, which will be France in 2017. They will very much consider the EU referendum and the tantrums of Greece are not helping. On the other hand extremism has an advantage, the fact that the not so ‘clued in’ father of Marine Le Pen (Jean-Marie Le Pen) is sinking her advantage by opening his mouth is good for the National Front opposition, but it is in no way a guarantee that National Front will not sweep the nation. Should they do so than Europe will face a Euro without France, at which point the UK will not be left with any options but to enforce ‘Brexit’ any way possible. So the tactical choice of holding the referendum AFTER the French elections makes perfect sense, but that reality is now completely depending on the actions and success of National Front, which means that there is no half way option left.

Again, I could just be totally wrong!

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Tagged as Badenoch & Strathspey, Boston & Skegness, Conservatives, Danny Alexander, David Laws, EU referendum, France, Gerald Vernon-Jackson, Hartlepool, Haywood & Middleton, Heywood & Middleton, Inverness, Jane Collins, jean marie le pen, John Bickley, Liberal Democrat, Liberal Democrats, Lord Ashdown, Marine Le Pen, Nairn, National Front, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Philip Broughton, Rotherham, Tim Farron, UKIP

May 3, 2015 · 08:32

The Trans European Crash

It is a work of power, but not from any one station. The Germans would call it a Kraftwerk, but this is not an express as envisioned by Florian Schneider or Ralf Hütter. No it is a subtle hidden crash, pushed by those who need the status quo, not the fallout before they leave with a huge golden handshake.

You see, people forget how things are interconnected. We forget too often that the machine is based on values that are virtual and on foundations that are a generation old, we all forget that!

It is now 2 days ago that we see an article (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/apr/30/markets-await-eurozone-inflation-as-greece-takes-on-brussels-live-updates), the title ‘Eurozone edges out of deflation – as it happened‘ is not informative, it all seems like a collected pile of lose facts, are they connected?

They are to some extent, but not in the view people have. Let me enlighten you!

“The Greek government was struggling on Thursday to complete payments to more than 2m pensioners after claiming that a “technical hitch” delayed an earlier disbursement“. I will not attack that. We all have our doubts, but we need to consider that technology glitches, it always does so at the moment it hurts the user the most. Yet the response ““Normally I only withdraw half the money at the end of the month but today I’m taking it all” said Sotiria Zlatini” gives us pause, the expected bank run is coming and this might not be the bank run, but Greeks all over Greece fear that the bank run will happen whilst some pension money is still in their bank accounts. This gives a view of 2 million pensioners holding on to their money for dear life. You see, a small element is that at this very moment that this is written the Greek government was due to pay 200 million. Had that payment been made?

If an ‘extension’ has been granted, you can be sure that this will upset the Conservatives with David Cameron and it will fuel UKIP with Nigel Farage. Two non-related entities, yet they are all connected through other strings. Yet, the news we hear from Reuters is “Greece’s next payment to the International Monetary Fund, totalling some 200 million euros in interest payments, is due May 6 because of the May Day holiday in Greece, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday“, so, because of one day, they get an additional 5 days. Do I now have your attention regarding the ‘Status Quo’? Still, the ‘technical glitch’ the Greek bank has could be for real, but now consider the 2,000,000 accounts that will withdraw all funds, how short will the Greeks be to make payment? Yet, another part of the Guardian already informs us of a third bailout negotiation, something we knew, but the timing is so auspicious, we will see if the Greeks made payment before the €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in funds are released. Perhaps a third party deal through an investment bank will see the 200 million released on May 5^th, for perhaps a mere 243,546,576 dollars? Any takers at Goldman Sachs perhaps? I am not sure if that will happen, I am merely speculating!

You see, this goes a little further, it is not just the message of “Eurozone inflation picked up in April to 0%, from -0.1% in March. It brings to an end a four-month run of deflation“, which I got from Eurostat. You see, which of the 28 Euro players have rounded up their numbers? Likely more than one, so was the inflation 0%, or was it perhaps -0.048%? It is in the margins that we see the game being played, but playing it all from the margins is a dangerous game, because trimming the fat always leaves us with one player that takes the smallest slice of beef, now we are bleeding and one player goes ‘Oops!’.

We get the next piece from Germany. The statement “The number of people out of work in Germany dropped by 8,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, to 2.792m. A bigger fall of about 15,000 had been expected“. I have two issues with this. the first being that these 8,000 mean 7.5 million a month less drainage on the German Treasury Coffers. These people now have a job, which is good for all parties, which means they will get extra groceries, perhaps treat themselves to a slice of cake to celebrate, which every person should do if they get themselves a job. It is the second part, the prediction ‘A bigger fall of about 15,000 had been expected‘, why? What data precipitated that thought?

You see, the people doing the forecasting as a whole have not been doing that great a job. They failed on multiple levels for years, mainly because of ‘unexpected’ conditions.

Now we get to Spain, where we see the quote “It shows that reforms work, it should help reduce unemployment much further and thus political fragility and it serves as a shining example to Greeks of what their country could have if its government finally returns to the path of virtue“, which is nice, but in this case, the given quote from Christian Schulz, economist at German bank Berenberg is one we also need to take caution with. I would like to claim this as a mere fact, because my ego would like to see Tsipras and Varoufakis cut down to size (am I too honest?). They played a very dangerous game on behalf of people who cannot afford to lose as they have nothing left, yet in my view Antonis Samaras had the right path. It was a painful path for all Greeks, but it was slowly getting Greece back. Now the Greeks face fears they never faced before. This is however not about Greece, this is about Spain. In my view Spain had nowhere left to go but up, or die. At 23%, one in four does not have a job, those with jobs work many long hours to keep their job, many products are still not getting sold because many people cannot afford it, so Spain is getting back on board, but ever so slowly and let’s face it, beating a 0.3% prediction, making 0.5% is not great, but it seems that exceeding predictions gets to be rewarded. The reality is that 0.5% is 2.5% below the currency inflation, so we have nothing to celebrate. When Spain loses even 2% unemployed persons, as they get a job, then we can make a cautious cheer. That moment is nowhere near at present. So why the optimism?

Now consider other elements, consumer spending is falling in France, Italy and a few other places. The economy slowed down in a massive way this quarter, even though in some places unemployment figures look better. The Netherlands now has the lowest unemployment rates compared to other numbers for a long period of time. Yet, the news came with the image of a lovely Dutch girl with impressive cleavage buying a backpack, which does not sway from the blow that the American economy is getting and that affects the Eurozone too.

So here we have the initial part, some EEC nations are now getting a little positivity (most less than 1%), which is better than zero or minus, but it still is a long way from serious movement away from dark times, they are still overhead for the largest extent.

Will you stand by the view that the economy is getting better? I say that this Trans European Crash is still moving along towards the assets of all citizens there. You see, every month I am wrong, it will not be because of the premise, but because some people were allowed to push forward the status quo. In the case of Greece that will be another €7.2bn, with additional funds for bailout three and four. Whomever considers that there will be no bailout four, so you better wizen up fast! Greece has almost 316 billion in debts, it will need another 7.2 to make payments now and then we will see the need for no less than 10 billion more and who knows how much for bailout number 4, which becomes a lot more important now that we see that the Greek government is out of cash. So as the Greeks are not defaulting, Europe gets the added pressure of 17-30 billion before the end of 2016 (likely no later than Q1 2016). So the Greek debt will go beyond 200% of GDP. So when you read these miracle messages of suddenly growing from 0.6% to 2.9% I worry, because someone is again getting creative with the numbers and not with the actual GDP. If the Greek GDP is doing so well, how come we see zero messages on how manufacturing is up by a lot, how unemployment numbers are down, as I see it this is a number ‘fixing’ game where Greece is kept on the edge of the Abyss in virtual representation, whilst in reality Greece took three steps forward over the edge! But those who need the Status Quo, those who invested and want their money, or give their losses to someone else are giving us a skewed picture.

This is what UKIP has been up in arms about. I can tell you now that the picture is a lot more complex than I give it, but I believe that I am right, I believe that several announcers are painting us something that is not there, that is even without the laughingly bizarre article in Forbes by Panos Mourdoukoutas on how ‘Greece’s Net Debt Is 18% of GDP, Not 175%‘, which sounds fine in theory (he uses net debt, not total debt), but why is all that taxation not collected? I see the article nothing more than the article of a Greek having a go at the Germans (oh, how original), yet in this light we also see Reuters stating ‘Ratings agencies say no default if Greece misses ECB, IMF payments‘ (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/01/us-greece-default-ratings-idUSKBN0NM3N420150501). This is partially true as I reported earlier, because missing a payment is only the track to the Grexit and Default, but not the immediate consequence.

Now we get to the jewel in that article, which links to all other parts “The only potential impact Allen & Overy’s Yannis Manuelides saw from any missed payments was that they could technically give the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) the option to demand immediate repayment of one of its big Greek loans. But as the EFSF is government controlled, that seems highly unlikely and it would most likely waive that option“. This is the crux, those in charge will put pressure on the EFSF to get time to settle things, which means the EFSF will not act immediately, because the governments want to make sure that there is no other option to get their money, so everything gets pushed forward. Yet not paying should have an impact on several linked numbers and it could hit Italy and France, this is the true nightmare, Greece is pushing to get both Italy and France on the edge, because that will unlock the big blocks of cash, from which Greece would ‘benefit’, in that regard we could see that Greece gets reduced to a mere slave labour nation, but that is just me stating the obvious.

This is partially the issue I feared coming. One small nation of less than 10 million gets to push the rest around because no one is muzzling the people who are not playing the game according to the rules, as many politicians are not held to account, Tsipras and Varoufakis worked under the premise, if they need not, then neither do we, which is not that ludicrous a thought, but Greece is the only one approaching 200% of GDP, giving pause to the incorrectness of their train of thought.

Station Crash

This is the point where the brilliance of ‘Kling Klang’ studios is shown, the repetitive background of the Trans Europe Express shows the status quo of the finance world, like a monotonous train engine, it is pushing the Greek situation and as we lose the ‘n’ of finance, we get that Greece becomes the debtors fiancé, a shattered relationship (perhaps battered might be the better word) that has no good ending in sight. In all this, I look again towards the Album of Kraftwerk and the brilliance how it relates here. Europe endless gives me the lyrics ‘Life is timeless’, or in this case the European’s time is lifeless. So as we watch the economists admiring themselves in the Hall of Mirrors, we see a shift, one that is NOT BECAUSE of Greece (lets remain fair here) but as they were allowed to continue, we see a shift of people now less and less willing to see Europe continue. When we see stories on how some families in UK sometimes have less than one meal a day, where Spain is in so much hardship the people are bleeding, but now Spain moves forward, in all this Greece sees itself above the law of normalcy and this will soon come to blows. Germany need only to step back and not interfere. So as Varoufakis states that Grexit advocates are ‘anti-European’, we see additional resentment towards Greece, not from the powers, l but from the voting population at large. In that form at present, National Front is still making headway in France, which spells really bad for the Eurozone. Spain becomes a second player, if it goes on like this, slowly making headway, additional fuel against Tsipras is won, yet if it goes the other way, several players will need to pull out if they wish to avoid getting hit by the debts of both Greece and Spain. You see, when one goes, the banks will want to offload the debts as fast as possible, preferably in the last hour before defaulting, leaving who owns it a mess no one will survive, which means they will try to get governments to sign long term agreements for the debts. Will it work? That is uncertain, the fact that most players desire status quo, means that it is not impossible, in the end the debt goes to millions of taxpayers, that might survive, the banks ending up with this bill will topple and go under. This is where we are!

Greece (possibly with Spain) will push France and Italy, they will push whatever is left!

Now we get to the banks and the Greek bank run, this was nicely stated in the Reuters article I mentioned earlier. Here we see “They would be more likely to default on their T-bills (than the ECB) the only problem is that they are then defaulting mostly on their own banks… and in any case a distressed exchange on T-bills would definitely be classed as a default“, this is the fear I had, yet I did not think it would go that fast, because this act leaves the Greek population without any money and this means that the Greek solution could only work outside of the Euro, super inflating a Drachma, paying people pieces of paper that had no real value, a new kind of monopoly where everyone gets cash and no cause for it is needed. Here we see the faltering logic in it, partially the logic on my side too. It can only work if Grexit is forced, which some places do not want (they want their investment) and the inflated Drachma means that retirement funds have no value whatsoever, not even the printed money that is handed for it. A virtual mess of real money and no assets. It is a currency that goes nowhere, a funding from nothing that cannot be, because any product that needs importation will not be affordable. Basically that new Drachma would be even less stable then the old shekel, a worrying thought.

Now we get the UKIP charter in a new light. UKIP will close the borders and will proclaim the European Union to be null and void in the light of the Union Jack, the only Union that England will recognise. After that Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands, Belgium et al will have no alternative left to them, just because Greece would not play ball. The UKIP view is the worrying one, because the electorates that were once an ‘outside chance to win‘ could grow beyond contender, Greece got them there, by playing the rock star game, the British people are now angry, because many of them are getting by on too little whilst team Tsipras/Varoufakis kept playing the ‘we do not care game’ loudly and squandering, it opposes the UK standard of normalcy. They will often spend money, but fess up to it and pay it back, Greece leaves the impression that paying back is not a given, which has been illuminated more than once by Yanis Varoufakis.

Yet, Europe is more than Greece and Greece is less than 5% of that entire mess, which is not voiced that often. Because at GDP, the debt of Greece seems phenomenal, but the debt Italy holds is massive, it is only because Italy does have its products to bring abroad, it has additional tourism and it has almost 60 million people is why Italy does not seem to be in as much danger. But at 130% of GDP, Italy is in trouble, the debt of Greece, if defaulted could push Italy pretty much over the Abyss too. This is the danger Europe faces as Italian Liga Nord could do worse damage to Europe, especially as it does not like the place Greece is pushing them. The Italian debt at 2.6Trillion Euro’s is nothing to be sneered at. Their debt is growing at almost 4000 Euro a second. To deal with the interest, every Italian would have to pay an additional 2,000 Euro a year. This was the danger all along, where Greece is, Italy soon will be and after that France will follow, that is the Trans Europe Crash we will face. This is why Nigel Farage wants to bail out before that bill comes, which is fair enough. If the European governments had changed their irresponsible views 5 years ago, there would be an improved path and Greece would have more time and no one would worry, but that is not the case. The train is approaching station eleven and time is no longer a luxury.

The moment we dread is coming, yet in all honesty, how hard it will hit is not known. We only know that all in Europe will suffer, those who will survive decently are those without debt, the rest will suffer for many years to come. So are you still happy you let things slide or are you ready to pass the Accountability Act? In that act, those who created the mess do not get to push it forward, they either resolve it or become liable. It is in my humble opinion the only way to get governmental budgets properly addressed.

But that might just be my view on this.

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Tagged as Allen & Overy's, Antonis Samaras, Berenberg, Christian Schulz, Conservatives, David Cameron, Drachma, EFSF, Europe, European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Eurostat, Florian Schneider, France, German bank Berenberg, Germany, Goldman Sachs, Greece, Greek, Greek government, Hall of Mirrors, IMF, Italy, Kraftwerk, Nigel Farage, Panos Mourdoukoutas, Ralf Hütter, reuters, Shekel, Sotiria Zlatini, Spain, the Guardian, Trans Europe Express, Tsipras, UKIP, United Kingdom, Yanis Varoufakis, Yannis Manuelides

May 2, 2015 · 00:03

Oops we’ll do it again

That is the image the British Labour Party is handing down to the people, via the Guardian I might add (at http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/01/labour-nhs-health-data-liz-kendall-election). You see, the article gave the view of a politician, which is fair enough, which it all seems to be, a tech driven article (it was in the tech section, so that makes sense).

The issue here is not that this Labour lady with the name Liz Kendall for Leicester West is all pro data for the people, she seems abundantly ignorant of the complex nature of this dimensional behemoth called data, which is very much an issue. So as we take a look at certain statements let us also look at the other side of them. “Citizens should have control of their own health data“, really? Health data is there to help physicians and health centres to get aid the most efficient way to the people they need to care for. Then we see an introduction of two paragraphs where she whinges on parliament and how things are outdated. Then we get the quote “Technology has been neglected by every party in this election. Even the Conservatives, who published a simple but compelling technology manifesto in 2010, have failed to follow up for 2015. And Labour, which has been working with some respected UK technologists for months, developed a slate of compelling ideas that failed to make it into its manifesto“.

Well, let me help you here Liz! Your own party wasted well over 11 billion pounds (yes billions, not millions) on an IT system that never worked and never went anywhere. This administration is trying to clean up a mess and get rid of a 1.7 trillion pound debt, pushing more billions into any place that is not carefully thought through in this day and age is a really bad idea. Did I mention that is was British Labour spending those many billions on something that did not work?

Then we get a real beauty (after more generic information) “Tech is crucial to tackling inequality and giving people life chances, as well as getting the best value for public money. We should be open about how the government works and every department should be thinking about how it can use technology. We have to take technology into politics“. Here she misses the ball on several attempts by a massive margin I might add. Inequality is only tackled if people are properly trained, if the HR departments of those places are properly dealt with. Tech is not key here, data to monitor inequality is, but that is a sub article for another time. Taking technology into politics is debatable, first of all many politicians are not that tech savvy, so getting them automated might ruin more things, behind that there is the quashed reality is that tech is nothing more than a tool. It is a tool we use, not a golden calf we worship. Tech is not a solution, it is a mere means to get the place we used to go, but more efficient (we hope).

Then we get the ‘outlier’ in all this: “She is more animated about the potential of technology in the NHS. Kendall talks about visiting a constituent who suffered with the lung condition COPD that was significantly improved by a trial of tele-nursing. Rather than hospital visits and being on oxygen 19 hours a day, Clive Callow was monitored in his own home with data sent back to a team of specialist nurses who advise on adjustments in his treatment or visit him at home“, Yes Miss Kendall, you found an application, so how many patients per hospital need to be in a hospital on oxygen 19 hours a day? Without needing any other treatments or care? You are promoting tele-nursing on an outlier. This is really not that bright.

Let’s be fair, for this one person it is a nice thing, but if there are any complications, a doctor would be needed really fast, then how good was the solution? Then we get the Kidney dialysis ‘scheme’ as Liz Kendall points out. She has a decent point, yet when we see the information from britishrenal.org we get: “The number of patients on home haemodialysis is slowly starting to increase as the hospital kidney centres become more able to provide and support home haemodialysis and kidney patients are choosing to do their own dialysis at home. However there is large variation across the country“. It is the large variation that is the issue! Now, in all fairness, she is targeting a group that is set at 41%, which makes for well over 21,000 people, so it is not a small group and in that she has a case, but there is a long stretch of ‘teching’ things and ‘series of successful digital skills training courses’. These are all different sides of different coins and they are not the same currency either. So, the Dialysis option is fair enough and giving the hospitals options here is all good and fine, but this means more technical staff (high educated ones) medical technical staff and implementers. This will drain the NHS of other staff members. So the logic is missing here. I a world where the UK does not have a debt, is not in ‘near’ recession mode that idea is fine, but the NHS has massive issues, adding to them will not help.

How could I agree?

Well, for the options where there is a much higher renal issue, I would state, have 5-10 extra machines and 5 extra nurses and one extra doctor for THAT specific department. Guess what! Her tech people will not get a job and there could be other resource draining too, but it would secure a better position for 22,000 patients that is a real number we can deal with. But what is the price tag at this point? The NHS has the need for massive funds and tagging certain amounts for dialysis alone might not be fair (not stating that it is or is not, I just do not have all the numbers to make that call).

Now we get the next bit “And the CLASH project in Leicester helped an arthritis group learn how to use digital communication tools like Skype, which, says Kendall, helped to tackle the related depression and isolation that often affects sufferers“. Again a nice part, but that is not for the NHS. Getting locals with arthritis on a communication streak is not one I oppose but it should be with the responsible place, not the NHS. Yes, there is an NHS benefit (fighting depression) but we need to be clear about what can go where and how it can be implemented to work, not to cost money and to be forgotten 14 months later because of a costing error. She ends that part with “NHS has a huge incentive because treatment costs a fortune“, Yes Miss Kendall, it might cost the NHS, but so was the 11 billion for a non-working IT system which Labour fumbled.

Now we get to the ‘initial’ issue on health data. If you look at the possibilities of monitoring data about genetics and susceptibility to diseases, then there’s an even stronger argument for a national health service, because the principle of owning and controlling your own data, for example, is really important, this is the stuff of ‘legends’. Actually it is not, this has all the makings of a tech consultant speech, which comes with commission for him/her and massive costs for the NHS. When I read tech, monitoring and ‘susceptibility to diseases‘, my initial response is, ‘Are you for freaking real?’ The statistics, the data collection and the comparison is way outside of any budget, especially when you start collecting up to 65 million records. You see, there is a low tech solution that has worked. It is called Triage which has been around since World War 1. There is also Reverse Triage, these two require two elements and they require doctors and nurses (and equipment as the third element). We are for now in an age of debts, in here ‘susceptibility’ is a nice concept but let us focus on the ACTUAL sick, getting them better and making sure the NHS has a decent system to keep track on the actual events, not the forecasting of the possible but improbable. There we see the issue, what other ‘concepts’ would Liz Kendall like to waste money on?

I’ll be frank, the concept is not bad, it would not be a wasted effort under different conditions, but in this time and age and under the austerity we still face, giving it to some tech savvy scheme that is supported from a consultancy field is a really bad idea, I would rather see more doctors and nurses and less wasting billions for now.

She basically ends with having a go at the conservatives, which, as a Labour person she should be allowed to do (fair is fair), but she needs to realise that Labour has zero credibility when it comes to ‘tech’ projects in health care. The NHS needs change, it must evolve and as we see the claim “We have an ageing population, elderly people ending up stuck in hospital because we don’t have community nurses and social care to look after them at home“. This is a fair claim, but guess what! These people will end up being dead at some point! It is not a wish, just a simple reality. Yes, there should be more community nurses (not just in England), but the politicians have wasted tonnes of money, the Labour party being one of the better wasters of resources in that regard. Change must come, we all agree there, but without funds and trained staff that solution will not be easily solved. The only thing that Liz Kendall achieved as I see it, is to give chunks of fuel to Stuart Young, the UKIP member in her electorate. I would hope that the conservatives would make it a real battle, yet at present, I am not impressed with Paul Bessant. The generic information of a ‘successful businessman’ just does not cut it nowadays (as I see it). Stuart Young, a bookkeeper and as he states, devoted to Leicester, a Westcott’s man. with his one line “Westminster’s politics and economics are fundamentally flawed and they need a complete overhaul” he does two things, one he speaks a given truth to which pretty much every British person can relate, in the second, he blows the entire Liz Kendall element of ‘Technology can stave off the crisis in the NHS‘ out of the water. The title is not only realistic, the elements that need fixing will take 3-4 years and can only be done one step at a time, more important the second step is not even an option until the first step is successfully completed, the NHS is THAT limited on resources. I cannot claim that either Stuart Young or Paul Bessant would be a good choice, but the article gives proper weight to how bad Liz Kendall would be.

However, that is just my view on the matter, so feel free to disagree!

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Tagged as British Labour Party, britishrenal.org, Conservatives, haemodialysis, Kidney dialysis, Leicester West, Liz Kendall, NHS, Paul Bessant, Renal failure, Stuart Young, the Guardian, Triage, UK, UKIP

April 27, 2015 · 05:45

Finding inspiration

The act to incite, perhaps even a form of stimulus. Yet, when we go back to a more theological page we see: ‘a divine influence directly and immediately exerted upon the mind or soul‘. So what is wrong with inspiration? You see whilst inciting could be seen to encourage a positive term, incitement is for the most ALWAYS negative. When we see incitement we see: ‘the action of provoking unlawful behaviour or urging someone to behave unlawfully‘, why not see incitement an act as to encourage positive change? Even stimulus is now nearly always seen as a negative. The stimulus package being a foremost example.

In an age where hardship rules, we could use a positive force, yet when we see that projection of feigned wellness is combined with managed bad news, what positive force could be atoned? This is the thought that has been in the back of my mind as I am completing my current assignment. A choice I made in the past, whenever I get one step forward, the next instance I am facing two steps back. This is perhaps just a situation that exists between my two ears (as we refer to mental issues).

Greece is not even the foremost example on my mind. There are other issues where we see a change on what is for some and will never be for most. The next part seems a little repetitive as I have mentioned these parts in the past.

How is it possible?

Here we see a side of the world that seems out of context as per last year. Forever the oil prices were going up and up until it went beyond $120. Profits were astronomical. Now, as prices are just below the lowest basement, we see the following parts (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/26/bp-profits-down-still-in-deep-water). “It’s a big week for big oil, with both BP and Royal Dutch Shell reporting results. Despite crude prices hitting a 2015 high at the end of last week, they are still almost 50% down since last June, which means continuing trouble for the businesses“. Now consider the reality. Take a litre of crude oil, ½ becomes Petrol, one third becomes Kerosene and the rest goes into dozens of other products. Now consider the history of your shopping. Since 2008 (and since the oil drop of 2014), when did your petrol price go down and by how much? Jet fuel should go down, yet Virgin, Qantas and others are keeping the Jet fuel surcharge in place. So at present we have accounted for almost 85% of the crude oil, the rest goes into products like soap, Vaseline and other carbon based artefacts. None have ever made a decent downgrade in price. However, the article claims on such hardships even though the price of the raw resource is still lower than ever. So what stories are we being told? Are the oil companies guilty of incitement to exploitation?

How are we in this position?

Here are 8 mergers for last year, several more are to come and hundreds more have passed and a fair amount of mergers are set at mega billions, several in the pharmaceutical industries.

Lets take a look at a few of the 2014 mergers: Value: $67.1 billion, May 18, 2014, Value: $46.8 billion, June 15, 2014, Value: $46.8 billion, April 7, 2014, Value: $25.3 billion, February 18, 2014, Value: $23.6 billion, March 11, 2014, Value: $19.4 billion, February 19, 2014, Value: $17.1 billion, April 30, 2014, Value: $16.01 billion, January 13, 2014. Total $262 billion. Now consider that these mergers are for the most tax-free when they are seen “as reorganizations through acquisition. Under this model, companies must swap, rather than outright sell, assets and equity such that the two companies end up becoming one new company with an agglomerated store of assets and equity“, that is very nice for the boards of directors and as multiple borders are broken, many options (highly complex ones) open up to maximise non taxability. Yet, many governments have done next to nothing to curb this form of greedy exploitation at the expense of the local governments whose protection they enjoy and the exploited workers who are left at the short end of the stick in many cases, again and again. There is often little consequence for the acquiring party will soon find themselves in an upward reorganisation, but the other party is more often than not in a less positive position, which is the way of the world, I will not oppose the issue of reorganisation and acquisition, yet the laws have been bend beyond reasonable. In the near past there was a level of equilibrium, as the governments got a slice of that pie. Now, as too many levels of non-taxability are offered, we see a completely unbalanced view of life, to a smaller part in regards to rich industrialists, but to the largest extent to a whole score of enabling politicians with a limited sight to the future whilst blind staring to what was in the past the ‘now’ and never to adjust the future of what should be.

We are all feeling these shortcomings now, Greece a lot more than the others I might add!

Now we get back to Greece for one simple example. The one thing Greece had to do for well over a decade is the step only taken (if we can believe the press) only last week (at http://www.newsweek.com/greece-launches-frantic-crackdown-tax-evaders-ahead-repayments-324927), here we see the story of Leonidas Bobolas, arrested and not to be released until back taxation had been paid. Some might think it is a solution, for me and many others it is a final desperate act by a government that did not take things serious until it was too late. This must be a laughing moment for Kostas Vaxevanis, whose list must be very important at this moment, but there is every chance that the truly big rollers are getting away with it all and more important, the money that will be gotten here is nowhere near the amount required for the payments over the next 16 weeks. It is the final spasm of a nation that has every real danger of becoming extinct a second time. New Greece might soon join Ancient Greece as it becomes forgotten, slowly but surely.

OK, I admit that this future is unrealistic (not to mention vastly exaggerated), but is that not how the Greeks currently feel? A system so broken that the people are suffering. The place where Democracy was born by the mind of Aristotle. It was the foundry where the Olympic Games were devised, yet in all its social paths, the one path forgotten was the safety of the Greek future. Why will this tax evasion path fail? Well, consider that Leonidas Bobolas is ‘regarded’ as one of the large evaders, now consider that his due taxation was less than 2 million Euro and add to this the following quote: “Government data suggested that some €70bn was owed in unpaid tax at the end of 2014. Transparency International found the country’s opaque tax code and corruption of tax collectors meant evasive tax arrangements could be set up for as little as €100“. To get to 70 billion, they would need at least 55,000 tax evaders, all due 1.5 million, now consider the Kostas Vaxevanis list that covered less than 2100 names. The amount due cannot be met, not even close through this way. In addition we see even more posturing of inaction. This comes again from Yanis Varoufakis who stated: “one of the key reforms the government was proposing was the creation of a fully independent tax commission to tackle the problem“. I would personally translate this into a delay of up to 24 months with no actual actions at all. This one arrest is just for show as I see it, a few more will make headlines, but in the end, the funds will not be there on time and we can state that clear evidence of inaction from the Greek government is a mere display of fact.

Why mention Greece?

Greece is at present the extreme example, but not the least of the issues. It shows a governmental failing that is present all over Europe. Greece in its position is only the first one to visibly no longer manage its upcoming bills. The majority of European nations have maintained an inability to manage budgets, which is the second tier in this. As these governments make new mentions of ‘stimulus’ as a solution, it only masks an inability of forward momentum, whilst on the other side of that formula we see governmental spending sprees that cannot be covered in any way, shape or form. One example is the Dutch Stimulus package of 2009, one document (at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/pdf/20_scps/2009-10/01_programme/nl_2010-01-29_sp_en.pdf) forecasts a GDP growth of 2% in both 2011 and 2012, a number that would never be achieved, in the end, the growth would be -0.2% and -0.6%, the year after that it was -0.8%, we can speculate that without the stimulus it would have been worse, which is a likely result, but the fact remains, how well are the people off? Let’s not forget that stimulus packages are basically loans, the interest on those billions go somewhere, so in the end the people pay! France with its 26 billion package in 2008 would not see a positive jump until late 2013, then only 0.6%, after that until 2014, France only marginally kept its head above water. Italy does not even get close to those numbers and only had one moment in 2013 where they were positive at 0.1%, the rest is all negative. They pushed in a mere 9 billion. So with three nations, Europe has spent 44 billion and no real results to show. It could be debated as I stated earlier that the state of affairs for those nations would be a lot worse, I could agree with this on the mere premise of the thought. Yet, the one issue that should have been done, namely proper budgeting has not been achieved by any of these nations for over a decade and debts are stockpiling. This has been at the centre of my considerations for a long time.

Whether this is mere bad budgeting or a completely unbalanced system where corporations have been uber enabled, whilst their rights are not questioned is another matter entirely. In that regard we have the HSBC view (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/24/hsbc-warns-it-could-leave-uk-over-eu-referendum-uncertainty), where the option of the UK leaving the Eurozone would make HSBC move offices to other shores. Yet, when we google this bank we see articles on how they pay millions and millions less than expected. Now, these articles are not the ones you should have too much faith in, but with this much smoke, the question becomes, were tax bills burnt? I am willing to partially ignore the Swiss scandal as this is only one instance, it is the overall picture that goes far beyond just the HSBC. When we consider Libor, the fines of billions that followed with banks all over the world, we see that populations all over Europe, even on a global level are denied the funds for their support that they should be entitled to. Yet, the paths taken now are also questionable. I support to the larger extent both the Conservative path as well as the Australian Liberal party. Here we see a protection against naming apparent tax-dodgers. My reasoning? If a company engages in legal paths for revenue and investments whether on shore or offshore where the tax laws allow for it, the companies who are creative enough to exploit the loophole shouldn’t be punished. This is at the core of the issue, the tax system has to be fixed and altered. Yet, as we see with HSBC, politicians are often too scared for their own political hide (as I personally see it) and will push forward any tax change. This has gone on for over a decade and many changes are yet to be properly addressed. This is at the heart of the matter.

In the end, what is the wisest of actions? To cater to HSBC and mind liking parties that seem to pay the minimum in taxation, whilst at the same time, the millstones of debt are dragging down all European nations? The UK might have the highest European debt (1.7T), yet the path that the conservatives have taken its population has the best options to lower the debts whilst offering a modest growth. The inability of the other European nations to adhere to this is only one of several factors. Greece is now becoming a larger issue as their timeline of pushed from April to May and now we see the mentioning of June by Yanis Varoufakis: “We wish to merge the current review with the June agreement“, which is now a more pressing issue as the voters in May would steer fast into a direction many will not like, this is the danger, as emotion drove Greeks towards Syriza, that same dangerous move could push the UK voters stronger towards UKIP and the Euro exodus that could follow. Another version where we see a legal incitement away from the Euro, there is no inspiration, just a need for what could be regarded as ‘false sense of security‘. That danger only increases when we consider the next quote: “Tsipras said he was optimistic an interim agreement would soon be reached. But Greeks know another bailout will be needed even if the short-term €7.2bn is secured“, that part and the inability of the Greek government to seriously commit from day one is at the heart of all this.

A need to incite a tax system that works more honest towards the nations that give ‘free’ protection to the corporations that seem to shun a moral refinement is needed. Not just for the UK, but for all European nations. Yet, will this happen? This is the question we should ask when we look at the papers from the IEA (Institute for Economic Affairs), where we saw on December 1st 2014 the following quote: “Despite the Conservative’s pledge to raise the threshold to £50,000, over 5 million taxpayers will pay the higher rate of income tax by the end of the next parliament. Indeed, it is likely that the number of higher rate taxpayers will continue to increase even if the threshold is raised“. I question the spirit of this. You see, the groups are 24.1 million in the basic rate and 4.5 million in the higher rate (source: UK Statistics Authority). I do not deny these numbers, yet, raising the threshold will force other measures too. A more immediate and more just move would be to increase the 0% rate from £10.6K to £13K, which will also benefit the higher rate to some extent (£2.5K less taxable), after this I personally advocated raising both groups, the Basic rate +1% and the higher rate +2%. he reasoning is simple, in the end a budget has to be met, even though we see these ‘holier than thou‘ groups all moving for more tax breaks, yet, in the end, until tax loops and tax havens are dealt with, the tax coffers will remain massively underfunded. Let’s not forget that the UK has to meet a 1.7T issue, all using official bank notes with the ‘£’ symbol (replacing IOU’s in place). If the IEA really wants to push certain tax shifts without properly balancing the equation, we will see a push for drastic austerity sooner rather than later. It is not a mere guess, it is an outcome of mathematical certainty. Only after a serious dent has been made in the total debt, then it would be possible to consider a change. All this is now endangered when we see ‘promises’ by Ed Miliband as he states: “Labour will pledge to deliver a surplus in the current budget as soon as possible in the next parliament. This could allow the party to borrow to fund capital investment for infrastructure projects“, so a surplus and MORE borrowing? So basically he will likely spend his budget and the budget of the next administration in one go. The UK is still dealing with the borrowing acts of a previous governing labour. I see at the heart of ANY government at present, the need to borrow ZERO, whilst still reducing the overall debt to some degree (not possible to state by how much), this is the only way to incite true growth, to inspire a growing economy and to stimulate some version of ‘quality of life’. There are a few steps that any of the elected parties could do, but that requires vision, I have some answers, but filling that solution will take a different view, not one of borrowing, but one of an adapted vision that allows for new growth by changing the equation of costing, a different approach to a changing world where the UK moves ahead stronger still, which will be good for the entire Commonwealth at large!

An act to incite stimulus through Inspiration, a positive wave not based on pre-spending.

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April 5, 2015 · 20:29

The Labour Manifesto

Ed Miliband presented his Manifesto Res Rei. In light of what we here in Australia laughingly refer to as ‘the Labour party’, it seemed like a good idea to take a closer look at the speech. The full speech can be seen here http://labourlist.org/2015/03/miliband-launches-labours-business-manifesto-full-speech-text/.

So let’s take a dip into the claims pool.

‘Playing by the rules and paying the taxes that support our public services’, Really Mr. Miliband? So how will you solve the issues involving Apple, Google, Amazon et al? What measures are currently in play, what measures did Labour in its previous governing term put into play. I say naught!

The second part is found soon thereafter ‘With a government that balances the books, invests in infrastructure and works with you to improve skills and open up more competitive markets‘. The Tories are trying to get the books balanced, which means austerity. Labour had a massive hand in giving the UK that debt, so we can offer that Labour has no ability to balance books and the investment that they talk about will drive the UK into deeper debt.

Then the story changes a little and Ed Miliband goes into waffle mode. We see ‘despite the odds‘, ‘too many obstacles‘, ‘the lack of certainty about the long term‘ and my favourite: ‘Our productivity gap is at its highest level for nearly a quarter of a century‘. That last one is full of fun, because what is it based on? Weighted numbers, a lack of insight or the added anchor of virtual corporations?

Now he gets to the promise: “So we’ll balance the books and cut the deficit every year“, yes, how will you do that by investing and balancing the books at the same time? The current debt spring is loaded, because the UK has to come up 23 billion every year to pay the interest of the current deficit, so good luck with that statement, you do remember that your predecessor was cause to a massive slide in debt Mr. Miliband?

‘The struggle to find the workforce they need‘, which sounds nice in theory, but many corporations hire young unexperienced people to get away with what some want to slide under that table, when we see the issue where Ross Etherson, who admitted 21 counts of making or supplying articles for use in fraud, cost the NHS more than £37,000, Isleworth Crown Court heard, we clearly see that there are other issues at play, when we take the info from the BBC at http://www.bbc.com/news/10604117, we see that unemployment has steadily dropped under the Tory government. Now, I will in all fairness state that labour was confronted with the 2008 problems, but that mess was not properly dealt with under labour either. The mess left from their debacle 1997-2010 is still getting cleaned up half a decade later.

Now we get to the fishy side of it all: ‘It is a partnership for a purpose. We will give you control of the money for apprenticeships and in exchange we will say that any firm that gets a major government contract will have to provide apprenticeships to the next generation‘. How is this even realistic? Giving control of the money means that all kinds of accounting irregularities are likely to surface, then what? And in regards to ‘major government contract‘ and ‘provide apprenticeships to the next generation‘, how is that not discrimination towards the current aging workforce? In addition, we see that there are situations where apprenticeships are not a solution in the first place, which is just the reality. Consider a new frigate that is getting build with 500 engineers and 10 apprentices on the job, how many delays and what security breaches could the new frigate face? So not apply this rule to all fields? That is just a mess waiting to explode in the faces of those proclaiming it to be a solution.

Then we get (after another wave of waffling by Ed Miliband) ‘the priority for business tax cuts‘, yes, that has always been a good idea, especially as Google and Apple seem to pay 0.1% in taxation. How about infrastructure? Ah, that is next, where we see: ‘That’s why we’ll follow the recommendation of Sir John Armitt and set up a new independent National Infrastructure Commission‘, yes, spending more money on something that will not prove to be a solution, whilst the UK is down a trillion, so at this point, after we saw tax cut and infrastructure and invest, let us remember the earlier promise “So we’ll balance the books and cut the deficit every year“, which I see as:

No balancing the books
Increasing, not decreasing the deficit.

Now we get to the ideological part, which Ed Miliband is of course entitled to: “There could be nothing worse for our country or for our great exporting businesses than playing political games with our membership of the EU“. that is partially true, yet as the EU is unable to muzzle Greece with their flim flam rock band approach of not dealing with their debt and whilst several players are now willing to push Greece into deeper debt, both the UK and Germany need to realise that Greece is getting their credit for nothing and their luxuries at the expense of the other EU nations. How long until it is just safer to let the rest of the EU drown in their inactions against Greece? Which by the way has every likelihood of pushing both Italy and France over their maximum debt threshold, which has massive implications for any member remaining within the EU, all because no one was willing or able to stop Greece?

Now we get back to part of the speech that is an issue ‘Two years of uncertainty in which businesses will not be able to plan for the future‘, how about the fact that most of Europe in a denied recession, due to massive debt dealing is not the way to get any level of certainty? In the Netherlands, unemployment is at 7.2%, In Belgium it is 8.5% and in France it is at 10.4%, so when we look at what business options there are in Europe, we will see a cold turkey that comes home to voluntarily roost in the oven at 190 degrees, because the crispy warmth is loads better than the cold outside, even if the turkey is about to get eaten in the process.

If there is ONE business plan, that that would be the one, where the UK gets by for now, trying to grow, but most importantly is reducing the debt it has, so it does not have to fork out +20 billion in interest to banks for money the Labour party had spent.

So as he goes on reminding us on ‘We need to be a country that rescues our NHS with more doctors and nurses‘, yes, we all remember the NHS 12 billion computer scheme, that did not go too well for all parties involved, perhaps listening to others would have helped the Labour party heaps, but that was in those days never an option, so why trust them now? so the phrase ‘Not what we have seen over the last five years where the NHS slides into crisis‘ is a little misplaced as it was Labour who did messed up 12 billion, an amount that could have kept loads of nurses into jobs and grown the NHS. It was not meant to be!

So when we see the following quote: ‘To carry on with a Conservative plan based on the idea that as long as the richest and most powerful succeed, everyone else will be OK, or a Labour plan, a better plan, that says it is only when working people succeed that Britain succeeds‘

We ought to consider another option. To cut drastically on medical services for those on drug and alcohol based events. These people only get treatment if they can pay in advance for treatment.

Let’s take on the binge drinking issue heads on!

Those who fail the first two parts are thrown into a drunk tank like in the old days. If they die, well that is just too bad, we can blame the parents, we can rejoice on a growing number of available housing (the deceased do not need them) and the nations has even more jobs available and the cost of the NHS goes down.

Now, it will be fair if you disagree with me on this and I admit that this step is hugely inhumane, but consider: these people cost the society 21 billion on an annual base, which includes the 3.5 billion to the NHS. To protect the victims of their crime and violence, they will be remanded into prisons/work houses. So, you see, production will be better off if we change that workforce too!

Yes, I agree it is inhumane, but why must the people at large suffer for those who think that the rules do not apply to them? I have no issue with these people receiving treatment, however, if you are so willing to binge yourself for £39-£69, you can either fork out the £78 for treatment, or sleep it of in a drunk tank, either way, we reduce spending on NHS, which helps towards the actual spending balance Labour is actively ignoring.

So as I ended the look at the Speech of Ed Miliband, I must conclude that it reads political and in addition, decently devoid of realism. Which is a shame, because UK Business is in dire need of realism, which means the solution will come from somewhere else.

Which now gets us to part two of this event. It seems that Nicola Sturgeon is all about getting Labour into No10. It sounds nice, but how is the Scottish National Party any help there? Now, it is fair that they feel a lot more comfortable with their future if Labour is in charge. It is a valid call to make and it is theirs to make it to begin with. Yet, we must not forget the issues that Scotland is already short 11% on their budgets and with oil prices the way they are, their independent future is a lot less certain. This is a shame and I mean that. I was all in favour of Scotland attracting all kinds of Businesses from all over the Commonwealth to grow their economic footprint. I am still reasonably certain that Indian generic medication could grow all over Europe if they have a foothold in Scotland, which allows easy access to places all over Europe. With Oil being a problem and not a solution, other fields must be tackled to grow Scottish interest and the Labour party is nowhere near able to help Scotland there. If we revisit the issue of balancing the books, it will take less than 6 months for Ed Miliband to find way to move business out of Scotland, just to make his side look better, I wonder if Nicola Sturgeon is realising the trap she is setting herself up for.

So if we look at the Guardian article, which is less than 24 hours old, we see ‘Scotland’s SNP revolution terrifies the main parties’ (at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/05/scotland-snp-revolution-terrifies-main-parties), which is an interesting light to see after the Labour-SNP link. There is one debatable quote that caught my eyes was: “Underpinning these analyses is a barely concealed narrative of contempt, which says they will all come to their senses when they realise there will be no land of milk and honey in a Scotland under the absolute control of the SNP“, this is fair enough, but I do not think that this is due to the SNP, I firmly believe that independence too late saved Scotland, if Scotland had been independent whilst the oil prices went into the basement, the damage would have been unimaginable. I remain in faith that growing business in England and Scotland is the only solution, it will be important for both (mostly Scotland) to look at fields they had not considered before. The Indian generic medicine growth is only one branch. The open remoteness (hence securable locations) Scotland has to offer, could spell interesting times for any manufacturing option that does not require the pressure of London, with added benefit of the lower costs that Scotland brings. Consider the Ferry from Scotland to the Netherlands, opening additional paths of revenue. Scotland can grow options, it is just the question whether the Labour party is truly a solution here.

So as we all get to ponder the choices the voters face for England and Scotland, I do hope that they will all look seriously at these flimsy speeches that rattle on all sides. This applies to all parties, not just Labour!

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March 16, 2015 · 01:10

In fear of the future

As elections draw near, we see an everlasting image of what was, what could be and what is. The last of the issues is then rejected in two directions. As the Tories will go from what is into what could be, we will see labour into the mesh of what was and what did not happen. They are elements we saw coming a mile away (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/14/osborne-budget-speech-economy-growth-deficit).

War is constant!
The political face of warfare never changes!

Both true, both unconditionally an issue in this day and age.

You see, the one trillion in debt is bogging down the UK and the Commonwealth as a whole. We need to bring it down, yet when we see the more likely response as it is given in the Guardian: “Deficit reduction has been much slower than Osborne forecast five years ago. In his first budget, in June 2010, the chancellor predicted that he would need to borrow £37bn in 2014-5” and “that tax receipts would cover day-to-day government spending. The actual figure will be almost three times that“. Both are right, both are staring down the wrong rabbit hole! If we accept the generic statement that the UK faces a £43 billion interest bill every year, which is more than the spending of Defence, are we catching on? Bankers end up with a 43 billion payout, which is certain money, no risk and all very much fuelling a banking bonus. The interest is just a little shy of 50% of the allowance for Education. Getting rid of the debt must remain the highest priority. Apart from most of us regarding the interest bill as an issue, it is nothing compared to what happens if the budget is not properly managed. Yes, it sounds so nice that we see the quote “Vince Cable has warned that George Osborne has no room in next Wednesday’s budget for a substantial pre-election giveaway, but acknowledged that there was some headroom in the public finances for modest tax cuts or an increase in public spending” (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/13/vince-cable-osborne-budget-no-room-pre-election-bonanza), but regard the Guardian image (at http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/mar/21/budget-2014-tax-spending-visualised#img-1). Here we see that borrowing was still needed, at the amount of £84 billion, which means that the debt is not diminishing. At the same time, the Eurozone decided to go on a one trillion spending spree, which will hit the UK (as part of the EU) sooner rather than later, which is part of the problem too, because these spending sprees are only working for a drive of the people towards Ukip. To be honest, I am not sure if the premise has changed. I remained on the fence considering that leaving the EEC was too dangerous, but as we see irresponsibility and non-accountability (the sad comedy of a threesome involving a Greek, a credit card and a banker) is now fuelling a stronger drive towards Ukip, Whilst political Europe is wording bad management clauses and whilst they have no real solution, we see deeper dive into debt. The UK MUST AT ALL COST prevent this nightmare. It seems all too clear that Germany is now also ready to leave the Eurozone. Perhaps not the politicians in an outspoken way, but the German people seem to have had enough. Of all the crazy rock bands that Europe has, the Greek one, with at the microphone Alexis Tsipras, the drums are played by Panos Kammenos and as ever in style of Greek theatrics, the Bass is played by Yanis Varoufakis. The name of this band is Aite and it remains to be seen how long the band will remain in existence. You see, instead of addressing failures, the players of this band entered the blame game. A game played by many, yet always only illustrating their own lack of commitment.

In that we see a link to the UK, the UK, its MP’s and those in charge with a title of that what is (like Chancellor of the Exchequer), this person cannot relax, because if it was needed to borrow £84 billion, that means that the words of Vince Cable were poorly chosen, because there was never any headroom. Even if there had been no borrowing, the headroom was not there, the debt must go down, the faster it goes down, the better everyone will feel and the more the government can do for the People of the United Kingdom.

It is just that simple and yes, we will all feel the pain for many more years, because previous governments had not taken control of its spending. Now that the invoice is way past due, the bulk of politicians are all about pushing it forward about pushing away that what should have been dealt with by a responsible person (read a person elected into office). The Tories are trying to get that done and they have also faced backlashes and setbacks. No one can deny that, but the debt must be dealt with.

The issue is seen here: “The Lib Dems have been pressing for a further rise in the £10,000 a year personal tax allowance – the sum before which any income tax is paid – in an effort to press home his party’s ownership of the single biggest tax reform of the parliament. The allowance is already projected to rise to £10,600 from April. Every £100 annual increase in the personal allowance costs £500m. The alternative will be to align national insurance with the personal tax allowance, a measure favoured in the past by Cable as doing more to help those on low pay“. In view, I am willing to consider this as an essential option, but if we are to move forward, it should only be allowed in a balanced budget approach. So, helping those on low pay is fine, but only if we change Basic rate to 21% and higher rate to 42%, which means that above the £10,600, the basic income goes up by a maximum of £318 and in addition, high income get an additional maximum of £836. This allows us a balanced budget. If you wonder why not the highest toll? Well, they also get the 1% of the base and the 2% of high anyway, that group is dwindling down and to seek even more to that smaller group seems a little unfair (the non-bankers that is). The second premise here is that this extra collected fee can ONLY be used to balance out the lost revenue from the basic rate group that had their annual income between £10,000 and £13,000 per annum. The rest of the collected tax MUST go towards lowering the debt. If we can believe the 2014 article by the Guardian, this will hit 6000 people, which means that it only raise a few millions, so taxing the rich has always seemed like and always remains a hilarious act of pointlessness. It is the 1% from the basic rate that will truly make a difference. It will drive the debt down faster, it will lower the interest bill which will help lower the debt even more.

It is basic calculus, an abacus can give you the information and politicians at large have just been skimming the sidelines towards the premise of confusion. If you doubt these words (always a fair notion), than ask Vince Cable to clearly explain where he found the headroom to manoeuvre!

The only big issue I have with George Osborne at this point is the voiced idea “We will ease back on austerity while sticking to our deficit-cutting target“. The article states against this “Even after a trim, Osborne’s cuts programme will still look drastic. Labour will argue that he is taking too much of a risk with economic growth and jeopardising essential public services“, in my view, easing austerity remains dangerous, the fact that the interest bill exceeds defence spending should be a massive red flag over everyone’s budget. On a global scale, bankers grow rich whilst sleeping through the bad cycle, how is this ever a good idea? Sticking to deficit cutting remains a goal, but you endanger this premise by ‘easing’. That is not a premise or a guess, it is a mathematical certainty. Whomever is telling you a different story is (as I see it) lying to you. My evidence? The 1 trillion debt, which resulted in total into £43 billion in annual interest bills and still there were £84 billion in additional loans. Total fo5r last year would be £127 billion in money going somewhere else.

The final issue is the crackdown on tax evasion, these politicians all talk and talk, but this could have been settled in the simplest of ways 2 years ago, perhaps even longer. It only requires one simple change to be accepted ALL OVER EUROPE, in all EEC nations. That one line is: “A company is taxable at the point of purchase by the consumer“, the buyer is the point of purchase, he/she buys an item, it does not matter WHERE the sales server is, by forcing locality in taxation we now see a fair dinkum approach; where the consumer spends that nation also sees taxation. I wonder how quick the Americans will now protest. They have played a long game of possum and now as we act, they will suddenly fear a drop in economic revenue as it all shifts in the true directions of where the money had gone. The change is so simple, is it not weird that those European Big Wigs could not, or would not consider such implementation? It will not make friendly faces in Ireland, but at least many will see a fair adjusted sales taxation approach.

Now we get back to the linked items, Germany is at the centre of changes that will impact the UK. I kept an eye on Bernd Lucke in the past as he was trying to drive Germany out of the Euro and the Eurozone. It was laughed of as a non-issue on more than one occasion. Now we see that Hamburg 2015 is a game changer, you might think that +6.1% is nothing, it seems low against the SPD with 45%, but the AFD now has seats where it did not have them before, also as the SPD is no longer a majority party, the game now changes in Germany for many people. The German people have had enough, the events of last month whilst a nation with a mere 2% of the Eurozone GDP is an affront to many people, especially as Greece is not cleaning up its act. This matter will soon shift in stronger ways. Linked to this is the victory Front National booked in 2015. They won the first round in the by-election. Something also quite unheard of, but not by me as I have seen the premise change all over Europe. Now as we see escalations, whilst the damage that uncertainty brings in regards to the UK total debt is seen in the growth of Ukip (at http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/07/ukip-100-second-places-may-election-nigel-farage). Now we see the title ‘Ukip on track for 100-plus second places across England‘. I believe the Greek issues will drive a walk towards the Nigel Farage party even stronger. And to more than a lesser degree it can be seen a result through the actions of Greece. Bringing up WW2 reparations was (as I see it) the worst they could have done. You see, we all have issues in that regard, but they are counterproductive. As I see it, the Germans still owe my grandfather a Bicycle (Dutch cultural joke), but that device will not do anything for any economy, now even my own and I guarantee you, the bike did not cost anywhere near €162B, even as special a bike as my grandfather had in 1943.

So I am in fear of future, because these escalations are mostly all due to non-accountability. As Greece shows the self-confidence and pride that seems to be self-destructive, we see this element of Aite the Greek band I mentioned earlier, named after the Greek goddess of folly, ruin and delusion, leading to the downfall of all Greeks in the end. Feel free to doubt my words, but only today did we see this in Reuters (at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/14/eurozone-greece-italy-idUSL6N0WG08S20150314), Italy is now making clear that Grexit will not represent a risk for Italy. The Greeks allowed for a game of chance once too often, now we see: “a Greek exit would be ‘very negative’ but he was confident a solution would be found. EU executives warned on Friday that Greece abandoning the euro could lead to ‘catastrophe’“. One dark cloud does not make for Grexit, but Europe at large seems to have its fill of Greece and not facing consequences of THEIR actions. Does the Greek population realise the dangers and the hardship the Drachma will bring? The rich of Greece will get by, I reckon the rest as all savings are diminished by exchange rates a lot less so.

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Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Politics

Tagged as AfD, Aite, Alexis Tsipras, Bernd Lucke, Conservatives, EEC, France, Front National, George Osborne, Germany, Greece, Grexit, Italy, Le Penn, Lib Dems, Nigel Farage, Panos Kammenos, SPD, the Guardian, Tories, UK, UKIP, Vince Cable, Yanis Varoufakis

December 8, 2014 · 16:37

Should I run for office?

That was the question I was wondering about yesterday. I am not much of a politician, but I feel that the current batch is not getting anything done in the UK, so why should I, an Australian consider running for office in the UK? Well, first reason is that my heritage is there, but more important, whatever hits the UK, will impact on Australia in more than one way later down the track, so getting the punches in for the commonwealth all over is not the worst idea to have.

So who to join? Labour, well, they are not getting anything done at present, and in two nations, Labour had spent enough to cover the budget of more than two nations. Liberal Democrats?

I do not think they are anywhere near fit enough to govern and Nick Clegg is not making it any easier with promises that get set back. I see them as the party that grows a little by having the backs of the conservative party, which makes it a follower, they are not leading. I have seen man great and small, I have met leaders, I do not regard Nick Clegg to be one.

So now we have two remaining, the Conservatives and Ukip. Now we get a new issue. If we regard today’s news: ‘Ukip recruits BBC’s ‘Gobby’ as communications director‘ (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/07/ukip-bbc-gobby-communications-director-paul-lambert-nigel-farage), we see a game changer. Ukip is beefing up their political engine with a heavy weight. We see the quote that draws us in first “Over the past few years I have been following the work of Ukip and Nigel Farage, and I feel that he is changing British politics for the better. I am delighted to be able to add my experience to his team“, now we get to the issue! Yes, Nigel Farage is changing politics, the question is, is it for the better?

It is a dangerous issue to debate, I can only debate it from my -point of view and for the most we seem to depend on past political achievements, what are they? Here, we see the Telegraph and the Daily Mail handing us a part that actually matters (who would have thunk it). The headline already gives us the beef of the issue ‘British politics is broken – and only Nigel Farage is profiting‘, which is how we seem to regard UK politics, within the UK and outside of it. The article gives us this bit “There has been no Axelrod figure lurking behind Mr Farage, trying to make him say the right things or wear the right clothes. He has advanced to his position of unprecedented public influence on his own terms. Voters sense this and respect it“, it is in actuality a much stronger recognition than most realise. The people want a person who does HIS (or HER) things, not chewed down, analysed and reshaped for maximum potential. We all want to meet the ‘real’ politician. Nigel has been playing that part and played that card brilliantly. He has a decent amount of charisma which does not hurt either. The Daily Mail is less subtle about it. ‘But this is what you get when a smug metropolitan elite treat the people with contempt, writes Dominic Sandbrook‘ here we see “What Mr Farage has tapped into is a widespread national discontent that cannot merely be dismissed — as some metropolitan commentators have tried to do — as racism or xenophobia“, there is a little more than that, but the elements are shown, by the way, the picture of Nigel Farage holding a pint helped Nigel enormously. The people are seeing a person THEY can relate too, both Ed Miliband and David Cameron forgot about that. I saw Ukip as a serious concern in May 2013 at ‘UKIP or U.K.I.P? (Ur Kiddin’ I Presume?)‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/05/04/ukip-or-u-k-i-p-ur-kiddin-i-presume/)

I still see myself as a conservative, yet here things are not going so good either. Part of this is David Cameron’s own fault. Ukip should have been treated more seriously long ago, now they are gaining momentum, whilst the conservative train is losing speed. I think that the conservatives did play the game right for most, but it is the game that the voters have had enough off and they are looking somewhere else at present, which gives us this predicament. So where should I run for office in the UK? (Beside a few minor glitches regarding not being a British citizen). When I look at my family’s history, then there are a few options. I would look at my family’s history to behold my options. The first place is Saffron Walden, which has a link to my grandmother’s heritage. There we see the conservatives with Sir Alan Haselhurst clearly in seat, no threat of Ukip coming there any day soon. The next part is my great grandfather, which gives me Exeter. Here we see Labour as a temporary majority. Now we have ourselves a ball game. I have to work the brain magic, because on looks, Ben Bradshaw, will easily win. Dominic Morris is in the prospective seat for the conservatives and he is not strong, he needs support. Perhaps Dominic would consider the photograph on his LinkedIn profile? Which if the 5 persons is he? Not the best setting for a former RAF trained pilot, only two jobs of 2 years of more, the rest were all mere months. Not the greatest profile here, but it does read slightly distinguished.

You see, here Ukip has an advantage; Keith Crawford is a business man, on YouTube you can see that he knows how to address an audience, showing how EU costs are costing the British people a fortune. He is a former soldier who shaped himself and went into business, her shows that he has options, he worked hard and he made it, an Englishman in England. Dominic Morris will have one hell of a fight on his hands and not just a real fight; he is less likely to win on the data I am seeing. Especially as Keith Crawford is discussing both cheap labour and freedom of movement, we see that Keith has the ability to win this election. I am ready for this fight if need be!

The weirdest part is that I worry about in this fight is that Keith Crawford could have been a formidable Conservative, not with the looks of Ben Bradshaw, but with the voice, the insight and knowledge to be better than Ben Bradshaw. Not that Bradshaw is all looks, as a graduate from the University of Sussex, he has his degrees and he has been a member of parliament since 1997. Still, at present it is about economy and jobs, which is why (as I see it) Labour is to be regarded out of its depth and with a less then strong representation from the conservatives, Ukip could sweep the votes with no less than 45-54%, which leaves the other 2 (we will disregard the chances of the Liberal democrats here) by a lot.

So, where do I stand, how can I make a difference? That is not a given at all, I remain conservative, but to some extent Ukip is voicing the issues many conservatives have, which is why there is such problem. To some extent, there is more at play then the visible items and those attacked by Ukip do not bare them out, moreover, if Nigel Farage gets the majority and he makes an exit from the EEC, we will see those hidden issues out in force, moreover, the act will drive both Germany and France into a coalition of desperation, they will drive every opposition to anything the UK brings and they will try to remove the economic wind from the sails of economy as much as possible, with less than a 1% positive economy, that could play out to be a very expensive lesson. Yet something must be done ant the status quo is no longer acceptable as is, which conservatives to some degree acknowledge in relative silence, Ukip is shouting out the slogans, but there is more in play then a slogan, which is the issue the British audience will learn the hard way after that.

So as we see that Ukip is now bringing out the big guns, we see an electorate that is leaning towards a massive win for Ukip. Consider that only 19 months ago, Ukip was not regarded as a serious threat. I think it is time to see that Ukip will change the landscape, now you the British readers think back to how your Labour/conservative MP regarded Ukip and see the now, wonder how trivialising their presence has resulted in Ukip becoming the next party as it stands. Now ask that MP what else he trivialised and get to work on those items, because as I see it, avoidance of Ukip is no longer an option, but make sure that all MP’s are awake now and that the Tories (and Labour to a lesser extent) have a fighting chance. Because, like Front Nationale (France), Ukip was disregarded as serious opposition, now we see this “The far-right Front National (FN) scored a historic victory in elections to the French senate on Sunday, winning its first ever seats in the upper chamber as the ruling Socialists and their leftwing allies lost their majority to rightwing parties” (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/28/front-national-wins-seats-french-senate-first-time), we are about to see a lot more changes, many we will not like in the long run.

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Tagged as BBC, Ben Bradshaw, Conservatives, David Cameron, Dominic Morris, Dominic Sandbrook, Exeter, Front Nationale, Gobby, Keith Crawford, Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Paul Lambert, RAF, Saffron Walden, Sir Alan Haselhurst, the Daily Mail, the Guardian, The Telegraph, Tories, UKIP, University of Sussex

November 20, 2014 · 21:40

Classifying defection

This is at the centre of my dilemma today. Part of me knows that some of my exam results have been posted. I have two more exams, which makes me too scared to check them. If I fail, my life will feel it is over and I feel like admiring the great view a person has when he leaps down the Empire State Building, some say that this view is the best and it is apparently a one-time option. Anyway, if I fail, I will get more depressed then I already am, If I pass I might relax a little too much whilst I have two exams between now and coming Tuesday morning, hence the fear to check.

On my 2 hour point of rest, I got my hands on this article ‘Rochester by-election: “two more Tories ready to defect”‘ (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/20/rochester-strood-byelection-voters-polls-ukip), for most of my life I have seen defection for the most as an act of treason, we take a team and we stick by that team (or company), I have watched scores of ‘managers’ ‘defect’ to the status or situation that benefited them the most, which I considered betraying the company that hired THEM to do a job. The then hid behind words like ‘miscommunication’ and ‘what was the best option’ the added part ‘for themselves’ was a bit of an issue to me. Corporations take this as the cost of doing business, but is that the acceptable truth of the matter? I actually do not know.

So these thoughts were in my mind as I read the article. You see, the question becomes who does an MP owes allegiance to? The party he is in or the people who elected him? That part is now unclear. Are these two MP’s Tories who serve Rochester and Strood, or are they Rochester and Strood MP’s who serve the conservatives? That is the question that phrases my mind. Yet when we look into the article another option is started to form. When we see the following parts: “My view is that Ukip membership should come back and join the Conservatives and be part of a centre-right majority in this country” and “Tolhurst said she was still hopeful of winning, but was reduced to begging for votes from supporters of other parties in an attempt to keep Ukip out of the constituency“, so what are we dealing with? Is this a situation where two MP’s are actually trying to sway both sides to stay in a seat, no matter whom they serve, are they playing both sides against the middle or are we looking at another play, one of voter management into getting the waters slowly managed by surfing the questions of the voters and through surfing these waves, to guide themselves into the opportunity to make the waves alter slightly, little by little into a new direction.

It is consistently illogical to expect the waves to react to the surfer, but is that entirely true? As the surfer becomes part of a wave, does that surfer not influence that what he is part of, or does the surfer just glide the wave, enjoying the motion but never to interact the wave so that the surfer will not get crushed by the wave as it engulfs him? What is true, by which definition and to what extent?

So why is this small part of Kent so distinct? I do not think it is distinct, I think that there is a play in motion, but to what extent is not clear. Consider the entire change as UKIP is growing beyond what most parties considered possible. Tories are scattered, Prime Minister David Cameron is all over the place to get a hold of the change, but the issue is not conservative based or Cameron based, it is in my mind constituency based. What is planned for the 75,000 voters and how should they be regarded as? In that area Mark Reckless does have a massive advantage, so why is there an issue with UKIP? The question becomes, what will happen, will the 23,000 people support conservatives and all move towards Kelly Tolhurst, or are we witnessing the sentiment within a constituency as they align and identify with the values that UKIP is advocating? If that is happening, are the conservatives on the right path, or are they ignoring the drastic need to educate the people towards why UKIP is the bad choice. Let us not forget that the conservatives got the economy started to the smallest extent whilst the EU is bleeding recession all over. The cautious approach by George Osborne is what is moving England towards better economic waters, which is also why the influx of immigrants is taking massive shapes, all towards better times. It seems to me that UKIP talks nice, but they have at present no way to continue the positive waves, in addition, the needs of change they will force upon the system could undo the forward strides the conservatives achieved within the first 6 months Nigel Farage starts implementing change, which he will believe to be ‘for the better’. The greatest danger here is that the results are only known after the fact, then it will be too late, so there is the link to my own fear, knowing will have repercussions. Ignorance is bliss to some extent; it lets me focus on what needs to be done. I can do it to my issues, Mark Reckless can do it towards the change he believes will make the difference and Kelly Tolhurst will just focus on becoming the new conservative for Kent. Yet Parliament will not get to ignore anything, it needs to dynamically alter its strategies on changes as they happen. David Cameron needs to remain dynamically active, but what of Nigel Farage? Is he dynamically active as we see ‘Farage rejects deportation claims amid UKIP migrant row‘ (at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30111694), is he tactically changing points of view in regards to the battles he can win versus those that halt him (a dynamical act), or is he stating dynamical changes whilst not actually being dynamically active? As we see the quote in the BBC article “But Conservative MP Damian Green said Mr Reckless had come ‘dangerously close’ to advocating a repatriation policy while Labour’s Yvette Cooper said Mr Reckless had ‘let the mask slip’“. Is he truly slipping the mask, is he opportunistically inclined as the bulk of middle managers all over the place, or are we watching a different tactic, one that requires the voters top change course, just like the waves for a surfer, yet if waves cannot change direction, was the direction of the voters an actual direction which was never seen correctly?

This is part of my thinking, part that all parties seemed to have ignored, or at least it is a change that many did not consider. These matters are centre in the upcoming by-elections. The people have made mental changes to the parties and what they stand for. Instead of waiting election, Nigel Farage seems to be changing the landscape by these tactical changes, as areas move towards by-elections, we see a shift for the worst (if you are a conservative), so as the deck is stacked in favour of Farage Ukiporated, we see the approach where the 2015 elections are already being drawn vastly against the conservatives. Yes, 75,000 people in one part of Kent is not a big thing, but as this is only one constituency, which others are under attack? Let’s not forget that it is not just the conservatives that are under attack, the Liberal Democrats and Labour both have areas where the voters have been making changes, waves that are all taking other turns and directions, what will happen there? The UK, 650 surfers (read constituencies), and its politicians all trying to ride the waves, will they change boards or get crushed in the waves as they are not respecting the power of the wave. In my mind we will see plenty of surfers adapting to the waves, so will they therefor be the betrayers of the party that gave them the surfboard, are they respecting those who voted for them as they change the waves in a mindset of the price of doing business or are they doing nothing more than serve themselves as they surf for as long as they can. Who do they surf?

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Tagged as BBC, Conservatives, Damian Green, David Cameron, George Osborne, Kelly Tolhurst, Kent, Mark Reckless, Nigel Farage, Parliament, Prime Minister David Cameron, Rochester, Rochester and Strood, the Guardian, UKIP, Yvette Cooper

November 2, 2014 · 00:20

When we lose the plot

That is actually the first thought I had when I read the thoughts of Ed Miliband in today’s Guardian. The view ‘House of Lords not representative of much of the country’ (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/31/miliband-devolution-elected-second-chamber-regions), of course, as the statement is made on Halloween, or All Hallows’ Eve if we go by the old title is a moment when we see the brain dead zombies walk the street and Ed Miliband’s statement fits right alongside with it! OK, I apologise Ed that was not very nice of me. You are entitled to your view, I should not attack it, but I can disagree with it.

So why all the zombie references?

Well, you see, as we see nations being less and less about proper long term planning, we see short term stopgaps that lead nowhere and they all cost a bundle. If you are in the UK and you stare towards the setting sun, you might, if you live westwards enough you get to see the Atlantic river, on the other side is a former colony that is ALL about short term resolutions that go nowhere. They are allowed to do that of course, yet, overall it costs much for all, many will never be helped and few are around filling their pockets with cash whilst not solving anything. Let’s call that colony ‘little Britain’ (not Ireland mind you, which is another place all together). Now, if you go on towards the west as far as you can, past those hills called ‘the Rockies’ you see another river called the Pacific river, and yours truly (that would be me), is living on the other side of it on an island called Australia!

Now, we have the same issue the Americans of Little Britain have. More and more of this is getting to be about short term solutions that are not really solutions. We need a long term solution in government, like the UK has; it is called the House of Lords!

Many tried to do away with it and some just called it ‘change’, but so far the verdict is: “However, no consensus on the future of the upper chamber emerged“.

You see, the House of Lords seems to be up, up and removed, but the future of the UK is decently stable and safe because they look out for all Brits, those who pay tax and those who don’t. You see, as I see it, the basement of Parliament (also known as the House of Commons), want change, they want it quicker and quicker. But as they are planning their political agendas, as they are too eager in securing an extremely comfortable future by enabling commerce too easy, too much and too often, the House of Lords stops them when needed so that the other people, those who are in the eyes of commerce and retail revenue ‘not that valuable’, yet they too are British and deserve protection, the Lords looks after all of them.

I understand the frustration from Miliband at times too well, but many forget the expression “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished“, life is improved in small steps, the Lords will look after all Britons.

This is at the foundation and Australia misses out, just as America does. However, for Australia there is hope and a solution, which I will address down later on.

I particularly liked the following quote: “In a speech on Saturday Miliband will highlight figures showing that the House of Lords is failing to represent large parts of Britain. “When people say that they are turned off from politics and that it doesn’t represent them, we have to do something about it”“.

Eddie, my dear fellow, please explain to me the words you had during the Scottish referendum and now, I read “The Tories want to go further on the handover of tax levying powers than Labour do“, so why are you not on board? The reasons might be very valid, but what are they? So here we see that in past referendum times, devolution seems to be not all that de-evolved, it must make them tartan fellows mighty happy that you are on the case, is it not?

You see, as I see it, Scotland remains a factor for Labour and so it should, but as certain issues move over to Scotland Miliband is set having to fight on two fronts and as such, he does not have the reserves, the energy and the battle plan, so now we see this (this is all purely conjecture on my side).

You see, all these parties are for the better part short term, one perhaps two rounds after that usually the other takes over. The House of Lords is all about long term. Anyone stating that long term is not for now is basically deceiving you, because short term is about the now, the commissions, the bonuses and so on. Like some half-baked sales person in software solutions selling now what they can as they need the revenue, the forecast and the bonus. It is never long term and whatever long term they claim to make is nothing more than the final push for the end of quarter sale, end of year sale and then the new quarter goals. It is a limiting vision that is in the end doomed to falter. It is particularly interesting how these people all need +15-20%, without ever expecting saturation, almost like the well that never dries. Go to a well increase the drain of water by +20% each year and see how long until there is no more water. Then what will you do? The house of Lords is there to see that when faced with these short sighted people, that someone will arrange for options of additional depth or extra irrigation towards the well.

And let me be frank, this is not just about Labour or Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives will have a similar short-sightedness in this regards, which is why we need a solution like the House of Lords. I rechecked the roll today, and yes, my name is not there between Lord Vallance of Tummel and Lord Verjee. My first thought was, ‘good grief’, once I am elected as an official Law lord, I will be placed between two Liberal Democrats. Well, there goes the neighbourhood! 🙂

Yes, we must keep a sense of humour about it all. Anyway, short sightedness, in the UK there is a solution, but here in Australia there is not. I do believe we need a long term option here, You see, Australians have a Senate, yet, unlike Canada who designed it to be like the House of Lords, someone here on this island thought it was a good idea to take the American model. I respectfully disagree, however the Australian model seems stronger than the American one (seems, is used as I never did an in depth study of both next to one another).

Yet, we were talking about long term plans. I believe that true long term plans might come from a Mayoral party, a group of Lord Mayors that decide on long term plans. A Mayor often needs to think long term and as such, a different course of actions might work for Australia. Now, I am not on the side of our Lord Mayor Clover-Moore, I think she overspends by a lot, there are other issues I disagree with and as such I did not vote for her, but I admit that her Sustainable Sydney 2030, is a balsy plan. Getting the roads more and more to be ready for bicycles is one way to get Sydney moving, now they are getting light-rail over George street and when the busses are a mere past tense on George street we will see true change. It is visionary, no doubt about it. It is long term and could change the life of people in Sydney for the better, I should know because as I grew up in Europe, the use of a bicycle is one I am very familiar with.

So is my idea out in never never land? Not sure, I am willing to admit that it is and perhaps the Senate does think long term, but I do not remember seeing too much of that happening, which made me think of a solution that is not at the top of a pinnacle, but at the very base of it and are our lord Mayors not at the foundation of any city and our lives?

So my advice to Ed Miliband: let it be dude! (Yes, I called him dude)

Let us all find solution together and let the future be long term, short term thinking might get us to the next crossing again and again, whilst we learn after 10 crossings that we could have saved a massive amount by turning left, right, right and left and avoid a dozen of them crossings. And in many occasions it is not about getting to the road at the end faster, but to get there without too many obstructions, the rest we will figure out in the course of the day.

Yet, I am not done yet with Mr Miliband. There are two more quotes to look at.

“And it cannot be right that those peers who do live outside London are less likely to be from great cities like Birmingham, Liverpool and Bristol than they are to be living in less-populated rural areas” and “We will make the second chamber of parliament truly a senate of the regions and nations of our whole country“. Really? How is that in any way a guarantee for a better quality of politics? When we see that not the best in this field, but the best one from Shropshire is chosen, then we will truly see how bad some choices are. As such, I cannot identify for one iota with the idea of Ed Miliband. Yet, in the end, perhaps I am the one who lost the plot. I will let the reader decide and I hope that they will vote for whatever solution is the best, not the cheapest or the most comfortable.

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Tagged as America, Australia, Australian Senate, Conservatives, Ed Miliband, House of lords, Ireland, Labour, Liberal Democrats, little Britain, Lord Mayor Clover-Moore, Lord Vallance of Tummel, Lord Verjee, Scotland Miliband, Shropshire, Sustainable Sydney 2030, UK, United Kingdom

September 21, 2014 · 09:25

From faith to fate

Yes, this is a story that comes after the fact. This is not about what has been proven or what has been established. I did not win because the Nay’s for now have it in Scotland and I was in the ‘stronger together’ park. I will only feel victorious if we make the referendum about the next stage. It is clear that the economy remains a Scottish issue, it is clear that the current deficit of 11% is not going anywhere, but the new dangers about less oil will be an issue, so it is up to all of us, not just Scotland, to find ways to make us all stronger as a whole. I truly believe that in light of current escalations, this is the one thing that ALL Commonwealth politicians need to take home. In response to the article in the Guardian (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/david-cameron-devolution-revolution-uk-scotland-vote), I say “Shame on you Prime Minister!“, yes, we do not deny the issues on “We have heard the voice of Scotland and now the millions of voices of England must be heard“, the final count has not even been completed (as far as I know). The next general Elections are 8 months away. Would it truly hurt THAT much to take a few moments and recognise the need to build a stronger Scotland? In light that Scotland is still part of the UK; that issue should matter a great deal.

To Alex Salmond, first minister of Scotland I say “you may not have won now, but change is a certainty! How can the other members of the Commonwealth help in making the Scottish economy stronger?” Where is there shortage and where is their surplus? I have more messages, especially after the statement from the Spanish Prime Minister stating: “Mariano Rajoy has said an independent Scotland would have to apply from scratch for EU membership and the application process could take eight years“. Perhaps it is time to recognise the fact that the European deficit as it is set at half a trillion for 2013 has shown what an abysmal failure their budget keeping has been (I will accept the fact that 25% of that deficit is the UK), yet overall, we have seen an abundance of non-UK issues, which is why UKIP has grown the way it has. David Cameron will need to consider a clear tactical approach, not only towards the current economy, but especially on how to reduce the debt, which is a heavy chain for the Britons to carry, if they had been sins, then Jacob Marley could not have fathomed the weight, size and the number of shackles they represent.

It is only now that I hear that Alex Salmond has resigned. I believe it to be a mistake, but it is his choice to make. He was not a bad person, he did not let Scotland down, and he did however put a clear need of many changes on the table, in that he has left a strong legacy. As stated, I remained in the ‘better together’ camp, but Alex had on several occasions drawn on my doubts, which means he did not just talk to the hearts of man and woman, he talked to the rational of the people too. I feel certain that Alex Salmond will be missed; he was a politician and a gentleman, which is a rare combination to find in any person.

David Cameron has a few other issues to consider and UKIP is only one of the factors. There is a clear sign that too many actions have been about the status quo, whilst we know that these changes will not get us anywhere at present. We must acknowledge that the economic course taken two years ago has resulted in a better positioning of the UK, but more needs to be done. I believe that it is time to take another look at the Commonwealth Business Council and include the function to set a task of ‘preferred job exchange’ where it will be easier to get a quick track of working VISA’s for commonwealth nations. If social expenditure is so high, would a solution for exchange be so far-fetched? When social services pays for one unemployed person in Canada and one in the UK, if there is an option to find work for both in the other nation, to allow for that? Work permits for 6-12 months that can easily be prolonged if the work is there is not a stretch. In the 90’s, several corporations started to implement the ‘think global, act local‘ approach to the situation, in several cases it became too much about travelling all over the world and meeting virtually everywhere. I do not think that this is what the term defines, yet overall this approach will work in a workforce under these economic conditions. We all need to be a lot more fluidic in our approach of work, especially where we work. When we see the shortages of IT in Scotland (at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-19529703), one must wonder why there are so many people in Sydney and London without a technology position. Important to note that this BBC article was from 2012, but the overall need for certain skills have been proven again and again. It is time to take a different look at these options and more important, find additional ways to solve them.

How does that relate back to Scotland? It does not specifically point to Scotland, yet if we pool all the resources, Scotland would be added to this, which has long term repercussions for all the linked nations, not just Scotland. What if we take the words of Work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, using his 6% and we could lower this by another percent? What if the shortage of medical personnel in Scotland could be filled by people from Australia and Canada? If we have forward momentum, it will always impact an economy in a positive way.

This approach shows two things, one, the fact that the status quo approach has not worked for a long time and the fact that ‘better together’ and ‘stronger together’ will actually work if we focus on the ‘together part’, I just think that ‘together’ is more than the UK and Scotland, I think it is linked to ALL Commonwealth nations.

It is now Sunday; I decided to let things simmer for a little as we have seen a few changes, it is important to see that this one article is not a static one, based upon the information of a moment. I have seen the disgrace under which some act (at http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/19/violence-glasgow-scotland-loyalists-attack-independence-supporters), that what describes themselves as loyalists, are nothing of the sort. Violence whilst singing ‘Rule Britannia’ does not make you a loyalist, it makes you a goon with the ability to retain sentences. But the positive part of this article is that as an Australian (with British and a wee bit of Scottish blood) had never heard of the song ‘flower of Scotland’ (the sing-along version is found here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPaJhlIIYjM). The article showed another side, the quote “The city is divided by religion already and to be honest I think the union jacks and saltires are a bit of an excuse”, was from an engineer. Which is shown by the passage: “Sam Tonks, an engineer from Uddingston, said he had driven into the city with his wife and daughter because he wanted to celebrate the referendum victory with other no supporters, but had been greeted by something much uglier”. This is perhaps the part of the aftermath we all hope will go away soon, small issues are now huge chords of discord in a place that has been a proud heritage seeking an independent nationality. I feel that no one debates this, but at present, in this economy, that independence will be short lived, until we strengthen the bonds between all brethren of the Commonwealth.

Yet in all this, I also (as a conservative minded person) speak out against Gordon Brown (at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/20/gordon-brown-scotland-labour-party-strategy). Let’s face it, he made a good presence and he had an excellent show, but let’s not forget the fact that he is a politician. The promises he makes do sound nice, but what happens when he is back in power? This is at the centre of the entire issue. The only massive reason why the ‘stronger together’ and the ‘better together’ got the majority that we all see the economic disaster heading our way and there would be no survival if Scotland faced it as an independent nation. You see, one part of the article is an issue: “It is, perhaps, of no surprise that the Scottish media now calls Brown the “fourth man” of British politics, alongside David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. In the past week, events and the force of his personality have made this the case.” The intent sounds nice, but the article makes Gordon Brown a running mate with Ed Miliband, whilst they would both be contending for the same group. There is more and more evidence that Ed Miliband has made its share of mistakes which will lead to Gordon Brown returning to his old post. The actual fourth person is Nigel Farage. The press made the mistake at least TWICE already in underestimating Nigel Farage, yet the abundance of mistakes and choices which led to the current economic weakness is at the heart of the strength of Nigel Farage. That what stopped Scottish independence is also fuelling the UKIP machine. The press making light of that is exactly why too many people are voting for Farage. We have given up hope on the Murdoch machine ever becoming a respectable paper, but I am strongly advising Alan Rusbridger to not make that same mistake. Having Nigel Farage written off at present is the biggest mistake you can make at present. I saw the same mistake in the Netherlands in the 90’s. The man Hans Janmaat was ignored. He was discriminatory in his conviction against all immigrant matters and was called racist on several occasions, which in the end gives us: “Meindert Fennema, Emeritus Professor of Political Theory of Ethnic Relations at the University of Amsterdam, argued in 2006 that Janmaat was convicted for statements that are now commonplace due to changes in the political climate”. The Dutch newspaper article (at http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/4324/Nieuws/archief/article/detail/1784000/2003/05/21/Met-excuses-aan-Janmaat.dhtml) shows a shifting cultural issue, by ignoring these factors the British newspapers are making the same fatal (and as I consider it a ‘dumber then dumb’ approach) to an actual issue people are confronted with, the press and political silence towards Nigel Farage only contributes to his untimely success. Linked to this is the fact that Nigel Farage had been bringing forth actual issues, which had been ignored by both Labour and Tories alike and they need to be properly addressed within the next few months before the Nigel campaign truly takes off, after which, half-baked carefully phrased words of denial will only hurt whomever speaks them.

This reflects in several ways. If we are not careful in this environment, we are all in danger of segregation though polarisation. That what Scotland is currently dealing with is something they need to get past, true loyalists will need to accept that Scotland will remain Scotland, whilst realising that over time it will be their ‘new’ neighbour Scotland. How you aid them now will reflect on your future later. Shine light on the actual matters and we will all prosper through it all.

If we keep the faith in a stronger Commonwealth and if we actually act on doing so, then we will end up with the fate of the Commonwealth being a lot stronger then it currently is. We have several heavy seas ahead of us and if we are as strong as our weakest link, then we need to make all commonwealth nations a lot stronger then they currently are.

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Tagged as Alex Salmond, Commonwealth, Conservatives, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, flower of Scotland, Gordon Brown, Hans Janmaat, Jacob Marley, labour party, Mariano Rajoy, Meindert Fennema, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Prime Minister David Cameron, Professor of Political Theory of Ethnic Relations, Sam Tonks, Scotland, the Guardian, Tories, Trouw, Uddingston, UKIP, University of Amsterdam

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