Tag Archives: GOP

It was never rocket science

Yup, that is the gist of it. And it seems that people are starting to wake up. You see the biggest issue I have had with any mention of AI, is that it doesn’t (yet) exist. People can shout AI on every corner, but soon the realisation comes in that they were wrong all the time will hurt them, it will hurt them badly. And this is merely a sideline to the issue. The issue is Microsoft and lets get through some articles.

1. Microsoft says cyber-attack triggered latest outage
The first one is (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c903e793w74o) where we see “It comes less than two weeks after a major global outage left around 8.5 million computers using Microsoft systems inaccessible, impacting healthcare and travel, after a flawed software update by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. While the initial trigger event was a Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack… initial investigations suggest that an error in the implementation of our defences amplified the impact of the attack rather than mitigating it,” said an update on the website of the Microsoft Azure cloud computing platform.” The easiest way of explaining this is to compare Azure to a ball. A foot ball has (usually) 12 regular pentagons and 20 regular hexagons. They are stitched together. Now under normal conditions this is fine. However software is not any given shape, implying that a lot more stitches are required. Now consider that Microsoft 365 is used by over a million corporations. Now consider that a lot of them do not use the same configuration. This implies that we have thousand of differently stitched balls and the stitches is where it can go wrong. This is where we see the proverbial “the implementation of our defences amplified the impact of the attack rather than mitigating it” Microsoft has been so driven by using it all, that they merely advance the risk. And it doesn’t end here. CrowdStrike is another example. We see the news and the fake one person claiming responsibility for it. Yet the reality is that there is a lot more wrong than anyone is considering. These two events pretty much prove that Microsoft has policy and procedure flaws. It is easy to blame Microsoft, but the reality is that we see spin and the trust in Microsoft is pretty much gone. People say “Microsoft’s cloud revenue was 39.3% higher”, yes this is the case, and considering that Amazon was originally a ‘bookshop’, so they went against the larger techies like IBM and Microsoft and they got 31% of the global market share. Not bad for a bookshop. And the equation gets worse for Microsoft, these two events could cost them up to 10% market share. In which direction these 10% go is another matter. AWS is not alone here. 

I was serious about not letting Microsoft near my IP. I had hoped that Amazon would take it (they have the Amazon Luna) but it seems that Andy Jesse is not hungry for an additional 5 billion annually (in the first stage). 

And as Microsoft adds more and more to their arsenal these problems will become more frequent and inflicts damage on more of their customers. Do I have evidence? No, but it wasn’t hard and my example might give you the consideration to ponder where you could/should go next. 

2. Microsoft Earnings: Stock Tanks As AI Business Growth Worse Than Expected
In the second story we see (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/07/30/microsoft-earnings-stock-tanks-as-ai-business-growth-worse-than-expected/) that Forbes is giving us “shares of Microsoft cratered about 7% following the earnings announcement, already nursing a more than 8% decline over the last three weeks” with the added “Microsoft’s crucial AI businesses was worse than expected, as its 29% growth in its Azure cloud computing unit fell short of projections of 31%, and sales in its AI-heavy intelligent cloud division was $28.5 billion, below estimates of $28.7 billion” As stated by me (as well as plenty of others) there is no AI. You see AI would give the program thinking skills, they do not have any. They kind of speculate and they have lots of scenario to give you the conditional feeling that they are talking “in your street” but that is not the case. For this simple illustration we get Wired (at https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-ai-copilot-chatbot-election-conspiracy/) giving us ‘Microsoft’s AI Chatbot Replies to Election Questions With Conspiracies, Fake Scandals, and Lies’, so how does this work? You see the program (LLM) looks at what ‘we’ search for, yet in this the setting is smudged by conspiracy theorists, troll farms and influencers. The first two push the models out of synch. Wired gives us “Research shared exclusively with WIRED shows that Copilot, Microsoft’s AI chatbot, often responds to questions about elections with lies and conspiracy theories.” Now consider that this is pushed onto all the other systems. Then we are treated to “Microsoft’s AI chatbot is responding with out-of-date or incorrect information”, so not only is the data wrong, it is out of date, as I see it what they call ‘training data’ is as I see it incorrect, out of data and unverified. How AI is that? A actual real AI is set on a Quantum computer (IBM has that, although in its infancy) a more robust version of shallow circuits (not sure if we are there yet) and is driven not by binary systems but framed on an Ypsilon particle system, which was proven by a Dutch physicist around 2020 (I forgot the name). This particle has another option. We currently have NULL, Zero and One. The Ypsilon particle has NULL, Zero, One and BOTH. A setting that changes everything.

But the implementation into servers is to be expected around 2037 (a speculation by me) then we get to the thinking programs and an actual AI. So when we see AI, we need to see that is a program that can course through data and give you the most likely outcome. I will admit that for a lot of people it will fit, but not for all and there we get the problem. You see Microsoft will blame all sources and all kind of people, but in the end it will be up to the programmer to show their algorithm is correct and as I am telling you now that it comes down to unverified data. How does that come over to you? 

When you consider that Wired also gave us “it listed numerous GOP candidates who have already pulled out of the race.” The issue of how out of date data is becomes clear. We see all these clever options that others give us, but when some LLM (labeled AI) is un-updated and unreliable, how secure remains your position when you base decision making streams on the wrong data? And that is merely a sales track. 

The last teaspoon is given to us by The Guardian. The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/06/microsoft-ai-explicit-image-safety) gave us on March 7th 2024:

3. Microsoft ignored safety problems with AI image generator, engineer complains
So when you consider the previous parts (especially CrowdStrike) “Shane Jones said he warned management about the lack of safeguards several times, but it didn’t result in any action” Microsoft will state that this is another issue. But I spoke about wrong data, out of date data and unverified data. And now we see that the lack of safeguards and inaction would make things worse and a lot faster than you think. You see as long as there is no real AI, all data needs to be verified and that does not seem to be the case in too many setting. I spoke about policy issues and procedural issues. Well here we get the gist “it didn’t result in any action” and we keep on seeing issues with Microsoft. So how many times will you face this? And that is before people realise that their IP are on Azure servers. So how many procedural flaws will your research we driven into until it is all on a Russian or Chinese or North Korean enabled server (most likely by Russia or China, which is a speculation by me).

As such, it was never rocket science, look at any corporation and in their divisions there will always be one person who thinks of number one (himself) and in that setting how safe are you? 

There is a reason that I do not want Microsoft near my IP. I can only hope that someone waked up and give me a nice retirement present ($30M post taxation would be nice).

Enjoy the day.

Leave a comment

Filed under IT, Science

Reuter catches up

Yup, that is the frame I am looking at. A mere 2 hours ago Reuters gives us ‘Insight: Swing state Republicans bleed donors and cash over Trump’s false election claims’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/us/swing-state-republicans-bleed-donors-cash-over-trumps-false-election-claims-2023-07-05/) there we see “The withdrawal of bankrollers like Weiser reflects the high price Republicans in the battleground states of Michigan and Arizona are paying for their full-throated support of former President Trump and his unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him” and you wonder why this is ‘surprising’. Yet, when you consider that months ago (April 20th to be exact) I wrote in ‘Is UNemployed a thing?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/20/is-unemployed-a-thing/) “Should Fox settle Smartmatic, or lose in the trials these small sharks will come and take huge chunks out of the Fox cadaver. No matter how you slice it, it will leave a gap for any contender of Fox to step forward because for 1-2 years it will have to contemplate how to go forward and how to invest funds going forward and that leaves their number one customer the Republican Party. Any contender could snatch that client away from Fox, which leaves Fox in a bind.” Now we see this happen and way beyond Fox, yet Fox too will be bleeding a fair bit. In the end these bankrollers need a return on investment and al things Republican are about to feel the pinch in a stage where they cannot afford to lose investors and bankrollers. I reckon that anyone on that horse will soon feel the pinch of lost revenue and more important, anyone feeling serious about their business will not do it with these people. With added “The dismissal impacted prime-time ratings at Fox News, with 20 percent of its audience dropping off between the first and second quarter of the year, according to a review of Nielsen data” this is merely one quote, but it fits the expectations I had and with that bloodletting, tapping the vein will be a lot more dangerous for all republicans involved. People like Liz Cheney have a chance as they turned away from the Trump madness from day one and t cost Liz, it cost her dearly, now she is about to become one of the few members (together with Mitt Romney) that could herald some future in the republican party. Personally I believe that they lost the honourable John McCain too early. That man would have been fifty times the president that Donald Trump imagined he could have become. But that is for another day. In the first the Republican Party needs to reset whatever idiotic view they had and they need to restore whatever they can and it better be WITHOUT Fox News. They lost whatever little credibility they had in the Dominion case and the Smartmatic case hasn’t even started yet. When you add it all up the republican party is in shambles and I saw this months before Reuters seemingly caught on. I reckon there is another side that will gradually catch on. You see bankrollers like Weiser will not ‘suddenly’ become democrats, I get that but that leaves the independent people in an interesting phase. Several states will now have a larger appeal to these politicians. I reckon that people like Cheney and Romney will try to salvage what they can, but people like Mitch McConnell have created gaps by ‘appeasing’ to all republican players (or at least those who shouted loudest) as such he will be trying to fence the republican meadow, but the sheep are already in a panic and large parts of the meadow have no fence. Plenty will side with Cheney/Romney, but too many will not and that is where the independents will have an interesting field day and for some it will be their first chance to gain foothold with corporations that preferred the republican side. The GOP made too big a mess and now the funds will walk away, add to that the dangers that Fox brings and the people they lost and we get a new setting. I partially captured it with “it will leave a gap for any contender of Fox to step forward” and Alex Jones already pushed himself out of the game with all that crazy talk, as such they both stand to lose more and more and the new players who are, what some would define as “republican readable information” will have a field day with collecting from the bankrollers and politicians that need a reliable platform and as such Fox will lose more and more and people will shun the conspiracy people like Alex Jones. As the comedians like Trae Crowder would state as “These people are leaving us? Is it my birthday, again?” And that is the larger setting for Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney (and a few more) and it will redraw republican political lines. I reckon that people like Mitch McConnell will look at the battlefield that they helped to create and wander to a paddock with a stable and intensely quietly live out their life in solitude. They literally bet on the wrong horse which becomes a ‘horse no show’. And that is the larger station for any corporation who had set their money on republican fields. They will consider what to do next and that is where independents will make larger gains, especially where the republicans bungled the ball (and their balls too). I reckon that Florida is in for a very new stage and 2026 will be bad news for Ron DeSantis who lost on a few fronts and the billion dollar losses he instilled via Disney will cost him a lot more, the 2024 elections (next to Donald Trump) first and his governor seat second (his approval rate now in the low 30’s). In this a new setting will evolve. Charlie Crist (D) is the clear favourite here, yet any Republican that did not agree with DeSantis could evolve an independent platform, especially if they want to make nice with Disney. That is merely one of several stages where the GOP will lose more and more ground. 

A lot of this is speculation, but it fits the data that is openly available, which does not make it true. Yet, consider that politicians require endorsements from corporations to continue. What corporation will continue in Florida after DeSantis blew a billion in investments from Disney? And after these fake allegations through places like Fox News, what corporation wants their name and reputation connected to these channels? It was a simple clear setting and no one looked into it at the time and now we see the Reuter stage and others will follow. I wonder what game people like Mitch McConnell will play next when they realise that the people they politically blew away are his only option to remain where he is? That gives a new interpretation to the expression ‘Will work for paddock and stable’ and yes I just made that expression up. 

And when you realise that the republicans are about to lose Arizona, Florida and Michigan (I personally think they will lose Texas too) the fact becomes clear. If the democrats win these three (or four) they will have the house, the senate and congress for at least two terms all at the same time. As I see it, for some republicans yielding the field to independents is their only option as they will need 3-5 years to clean the mess they allowed Donald Trump to create and in all this Ron DeSantis was little to no help at all and regaining hist lost estimated 25% approval will take way too long and Disney is not on his side. The one corporation that employs 75,000 people in Florida and that amounts to a total of (employed and connected) to roughly 1,683,000 votes. This gives Charlie Crist a new lease on political life. It is my personal view that for the republican party Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney are their only chance to regain some of the lost fields, yet I reckon it will not be enough for the the 2024 presidential elections. The best they can hope for (for now) is limit the damage they incur. That is my own personal view on the matter.

Have a great day.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

In speculation

It is a weird day, for me it started on Friday when the news on several grounds reached me, it is a version that we are our own worst enemy and now in a stage of polarisation, as well as the call from bullies, the USA now faces a unique situation, in this stage the end of the Republican Party comes soon and a lot faster than you think. It will not end the Republican thinking, I myself am a republican in mind and body. But the party committed suicide, it did so in the most stupid way possible. It followed a false prophet (Donald Trump) and decided to block the DC Riot investigations. 

What comes next?
That is a question that is a lot more interesting than you would guess. You see the true Republican mind is not gone, it is still there in people like Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney. It will only take these two to start to create an independent party, something like ‘True Republicans’ and the field is set. The GOP would lose no less than 14% and it could go initially as high as 38%, that first stage will deprive the GOP of winning again for decades to come and as people anger over the riots, and the seemingly involvement of a man who should be seen as a sore loser (Donald Trump) and was unable to face the words he spoke so often “You’re Fired!”, that person is the focal point of stupid allegiance. A person that has staged the blocking of his own tax returns, who made typo after typo, a person who cannot stand levels of criticism (The room where it happened), that person was the ‘golden boy’ of the extreme right and now the invoice is due. 

Liz Cheney

So when we look at meme after meme on 35 republicans, who voted against the January 6th commission, they are the cause of Republican anger and they will end the GOP. Even as CNN gave us two days ago ‘McConnell doubles down to pressure Republicans, asking for ‘a personal favor’ to block January 6 commission’, we see the first setting where the GOP has lost it. If True Republicans hold a stage and get the other 6 to join them, the GOP is pretty much done for. 

It is a stage where the media will bash the 35 republicans again and again, all whilst these dissenting views are up against thousands of images showing that this was not some tourist thing, it was a stampede where the protecting stampede walked into DC, seemingly ‘non-violent’ relying on the strength of threat and the imposing pressure of a mass. The GOP did the most stupid thing possible, they grouped behind a false prophet, didn’t their bibles teach them anything? Matthew 7:15 should have given them “Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves”, and that is what we have seen in one sitting of Donald Trump, ho is now silently ending the GOP, optionally to blame them for it all. Yet those with true Republican feelings should not despair, should the forming of True Republicans become a reality, we will see that there is time to stop some nanny state change, there is time to replace 35 senators who gave away civil duty and common sense and at that moment people like Mitch McConnell will need funds to start an Uber franchise or a barber shop. They will be done in politics and with him people like Rubio, Scott, Sullivan, and Tillis can write their resume all hoping to score the same ‘expert voice’ in some talk show. It does make for an interesting stage, this would be the optional setting where Liz Cheney becomes the first Female President in 2028 (2024 is nice, but not realistic), so not a democratic president, but a republican one will be the first woman in the highest office on the planet. She got their by holding onto the true values of a republican, which also requires decency and common sense to step in.

I am not writing off Mitch Romney, but with Liz Cheney the women’s vote becomes a larger support pillar and that matters. So when we consider the independent parties, only John Tyler (10th) was initially Whigg (Democratic opposers), and became unaffiliated, the only other one is one you might remember, it was the first president George Washington who was not aligned to either side, optionally because he was the first. And now we see that optionally the 47th president might be not just a female president, but an unaffiliated one. Yes, this is all speculation, but it is an option, and the media is flaming the DC riots at any stage they can, as such the Republicans and its 35 idiots are fighting an uphill battle and the people with a true republican mindset have seen enough stupidity to last them a lifetime.

Am I right, am I wrong? Time will tell, and I reckon it will be sooner rather than later.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics

The shame ride

We all have these moments, we feel ashamed for choices made, even though we know it is not our fault, even as we see that proper examples of our choices and believes are out in the open. The larger stage is as shown a corrupting view of disbelief and exaggerated view that cannot be fact checked, and when they are shown to be not true, the people paint over that setting with a brush as fast as possible.

I am a Republican, I have for the most always been proud of that. The Democrats want some version of a nanny state, they want to tax the rich, but they are really adamant on NOT rewriting tax laws so that we all pay a decent amount. Any law in that direction will be crushed by lobbyists and other options and it comes from BOTH sides of the isle, both Democrats and Republicans make noise in the tax direction and never resolve anything. Yet now, the stage becomes dangerous and there are two tiers of changes on their way, two that have massive repercussions for the American economy 2023-2030. 

It all started with Mitt Romney and Liz Chaney opposing the lies that former president Trump keeps on voicing. The BBC gives us ‘Liz Cheney: Republican ousted from leadership for challenging Trump election claims’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57090202). It has her statement on video, it also gives us “her party could not stand for truth if it upheld Mr Trump’s false claims he won the 2020 election. House Republicans will probably replace her this month with a Trump loyalist.” It is a much larger problem than anyone realises. Even as we see again and again that he stops Tax inquiries (I am speculating that he probably need to hide that he has less than 25% of what he claims he has), we also see the larger stage that the Republicans are now willing to embrace a lie, even if that ends their economy. 

Even as we see “Ms Cheney’s fate was decided in less than 20 minutes by House Republicans behind closed doors on Wednesday morning”, the larger problem is seen with “The ballot was not recorded but lawmakers cast an overwhelming voice vote in favour of removing Ms Cheney from her post”, the lawmakers are too scared for the names to get out, and it matters. 

So what will happen?
Even is those people like Kevin McCarthy make claims that they had it with her. The truth is that soon enough the Republicans will show how much they are done with him and a few others. If Mitt Romney and Liz Chaney Crete an independent true Republican Party, the GOP will be done for. They will clean house and then the little weasels will come running and they need some votes to be unregistered.

There is actually a much larger issue. This is PURE speculation, but I have seen some messages going back and forth and I feel the same way. In the setting that a GOP is based on lies and even worse Trump claims, the makers of new IP will optionally only do business with these American firms if the IP will be registered in Canada, Australia or the United Kingdom. Consider 2,000-6,0000 IP and patents to be filed OUTSIDE of the US. It will change the valuation of the US in a dark way and not a good one. The fact that some will embrace the lie makes a lot of indie developers very very nervous. I personally hope that Google (or Amazon) are two of 4 players that can buy my IP, yet at present I hope that it goes to Canada or the UK. I might pay more taxation, but I feel that my IP will be a lot safer, if innovation is an essential need for IP, there is every chance that the US cannot meet that innovation curve and the GOP is making it worse. 

So even as Democrats are laughing at the tweets by Gaetz and Cawthorn, the larger stage is about to be set and if even just a thousand IP owners register outside of the US, the valuation that goes deep into the billions will have larger repercussions all over the field. Even as sources like Business News gave us in 2017 ‘Yes, IP is the currency of the 21st century’, now consider the 2020 news “IP industries account for 38.2% of the total GDP of the U.S. and for almost ¾ of the U.S.’s exports; America’s intellectual property accounts for $6.6 trillion in added value”, now watch that GDP part fall from 38.2% to 20% or less, do you have any idea the panic that Wall Street will see because they allowed lies to continue? When the added value falls by a third to a half, the US will not be able to pay for the interest of outstanding debt, does it now become clear? The UK, Canada and Australia will have their great days, but when the US falls over, Japan will too, one keeps the other up and even if the US can survive a collapse of Japan, the other way round will not work for a lot of people. 

So as people are taking in the larger stage and hide behind “It started with a lie”, the plain truth is that the US did this to themselves, first by electing that bully in the first place, then allowing him to continue when fact checks again and again showed his claims to be not true. This is not merely me, a lot of judges, judges HE put forward are saying the same thing, the election was never stolen and now the larger plays come into view and it spells a lot of bad new for the GOP and because of that America will see larger downfalls again and again. And the entire Chinese hatred in America does not help either, most IP registered has a 60% chance that Asians are involved, do you think that they want their IP registered in a nation that hates them? And as more and more US Asians are moving to Canada, there is every chance that the IP moves too, or will be completely registered in Canada. 

I wonder how long it will take the government to realise that former President Donald Trump is starting to become a clear and present danger for the nation and its residents. This will be a first for America, no President has ever been such a source of anti Americanism. As such I hope that people like Mitt Romney and Liz Chaney will be able to take charge in whatever form it is. 

There is time between now and 2023, but as things go with 5G, I reckon that the first changes might be visible in 2022, and we are a mere 6 months and 18 days away from that point. As these matters expand, I wonder what a player like Amazon will do, they cannot continue to the degree that they are now when the US economy tanks, it made a lot or profit, it will not accept that it has to trim the fat in all places whilst the US government is allowing a bad situation grow worse, they will have alternatives and that makes for a much larger problem for the US at present. Yet, I am not asking you to believe me, I can wait, and in March 2022 when the signs are becoming clear and the newspapers write the setting, I can point back to this article stating: ‘Told you so!

Well that is it for me, I will await the call from one of the four players, it will be a long wait but it took Rome a few years to build, but I will not wait that long, when the markers are matched, my IP becomes Public Domain, and I will watch the greed driven go nuts because they were willing to put their personal needs before their companies need and that will be nice and visible when my IP becomes Public Domain. Such is life!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Politics, Science

The wrong presentation

The BBC treated its readers half an hour ago to a segment where the title tells all and says nothing (at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33646704), the title ‘Obama urges UK to stay in the European Union‘, we then get a few quotes that matter, even if they give clear voice to another direction. First there is “UK’s EU membership “gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union”“, then we get “the EU “made the world safer and more prosperous”” and it is followed by “the failure to pass “common sense gun safety laws” in the US was his biggest frustration“, which is nice to hear but to some extent pointless.

I wonder how he gets all these thoughts. Perhaps as I speculated in ‘Diary for a wimpy President‘ which I wrote in January 2014 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2014/01/18/diary-for-a-wimpy-president/), there I wrote “Did anyone consider how nervous certain people in Wall Street were; if their mobile information was known? What if certain links were proven? The accountability of certain people would mean that they could actually end up in jail. Yes, the Wimpy kid in the Oval Office is making certain that certain connections will never end up there (always blame the man at the very top)“, which is a reference not just to the president, but to his advisors, those who are behind the curtain giving voice to what keeps the high and mighty, high and mighty.

So let’s take a look at the quote “UK’s EU membership gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union“. I would oppose that thought, you see, the US requires the EU to remain in disarray, on the edge, because a better EU means a worse US and it should have tipped over the edge two years ago, this continuation can only remain as Germany and the UK are dragged down, if it was truly just about confidence, the US would have stepped forward regarding Greece 6 months ago, but they waited it out, only as Greece was about to get expelled did the President speak up, because a collapsing Euro means a collapsed dollar. I am not contradicting myself here, there is a difference between a collapsing Euro and a weak EU, it is a tightrope game which is partially enabled by the power players of what we would regard the ‘Wall Street gang’, because if the Euro goes, so does their combined 7 trillion dollar life. Now as we consider Greece again when we see the Quote in the Guardian Live “IOBE now fears that the economy will shrink by between 2% and 2.5% in 2015, due to the damage caused to exports, tourism, business investment and consumer spending“, now compare that to the issue I raised in ‘If at first you don’t succeed!‘ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2015/06/13/if-at-first-you-dont-succeed/), so just in one month, we went from the revelation “the forecast of Greece is 0.5% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016, I wonder how they got to it all and if such misrepresentation should not be a cause for liability?” to what we have now. Can anyone explain how a forecast has been off by 3%, the danger to tourism was already known, so as we have to go through iteration of managed bad news, we see that there is too much ‘miscommunication’. So reader, realise this part, even with the bulk of the fact known, the forecast was wrong not by 0.3% (which could happen in really bad predicted turmoil), the forecast is off by 3%, which is a massive failing. So, as we get pushed around and as Greece goes from minus 400 billion to minus 550 billion, how could any of the so far surviving members of the EU consider remaining in something that is dragging them all down?

The UK has a few massive problems and the EU is stopping the UK from dealing with them, all this is fine for the US as it needs to stop themselves from drowning, the issues in Japan are just accelerators to all of this. And the words chosen are they not interesting too? Instead of the European Economic Union, he refers to ‘the strength of the transatlantic union‘, is that perhaps an underlying NATO reference?

Now we get to the second part “the EU “made the world safer and more prosperous”“, which is a non-truth, the fact that the EU is now well over 7 trillion in debt counters the statement of safe and prosperous, the fact that only a few got out with loads of cash implies to me that the President is catering to those few, not the 25% unemployed in Spain or in Greece, neither does he take notice trough that statement to the massively rise of people below the poverty line, but perhaps for economic tainted America they do not count, hence they are ignored.

So now we get to the last statement where the president seems to get into emotional mode and refers to “common sense gun safety laws“, yes, that sounds nice, but again, guns do not kill people, people kill people. To illustrate, the latest event gives us three quotes “Dylann Roof, the man accused of a shooting spree that left nine people dead at a historic black church in Charleston on Wednesday night, should not have been able to get a gun“, “Roof was arrested and later charged with felony possession of Suboxone” and “According to his uncle, Roof received a .45-caliber pistol from his father in April for his birthday“, so common sense went out the window, because ‘moronic daddy’ bought his junkie son a gun!

In all this there is one possible upside, with the US president making blundering whoppers like that (decently possibly due to the advisors he has), there is every chance that the coming election will give the next presidency to the Republicans, in all this, they might win by default, because what will shine is that the President waisted so much time on common gun laws that he ignored (read: did not correctly change the power of) the number one killer, which is a 18 trillion dollar debt, a budget that is non-existent and absolutely no control on the government spending.

A mere travesty of the situation when we look at the given reasons to keep the UK in the EU. In the end the people will choose what is best for them and as such merry old England will raise its voice giving direction to parliament, as it should be, that is why the power players are so afraid of monarchies, because the monarchy considers all citizens, not just those with an economic value. In all that, I wonder how he will consider France, because the UK is not the only one who has had enough of all this.

So as I see it, a pleading President came with the wrong presentation, he should take a look at his advisors and the agenda’s that they have, because as I see it, at present his last 18 months seem to be about what cannot be done and who comes next, his current track could invite the event that he gets a beautiful bouquet of flowers as he exits the White House with a thank you note from the GOP, which could be a first in US politics.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Biased Journalism on USA shutdown?

We have seen reports of all forms. We see information management in what I have called bad news managing. This has happened in the Netherlands. Is it Biased Journalism, or is this journalism based upon the information handed to them?

The second part would be fair enough, because the journalist is dealing with what is handed to them. However, when we look at the canons of Journalism and their codes of ethics some questions come to the front of the lines. Truthfulness, accuracy, objectivity are three of the elements and there are more than just these three. I am not willing to attack truthfulness. It is in my view an empty gesture to do so. This is all based upon information that the Journalist gets handed. Accuracy might be an issue. They might have passed on the exact information they were handed, yet how accurate was it? Was the information tested in any way? Then there is objectivity. I am not sure if that is a valid point. Let us face the fact that objectivity is in the eyes of the beholder and as such there is more than one viewpoint. In all honesty, any article would need to be viewed from more than one side and the news as we usually watch it on TV is actually not that equipped to do just that. Newspapers are!

I have illustrated in earlier blogs that some of the mentioned information seemed inaccurate to me. This happens, I do not claim to be correct, but it seemed too upbeat to me and as such I questioned it. I was not alone, but not too many public contributors were, and in more than one occasion my view was the correct one. So when I saw the NOS news today, more questions rose in my mind and it is time to ask a few more and some other questions.

The most questionable part was the news on the US Shutdown as that danger approaches within the next 24 hours. What I saw as an issue was the way some parties were illustrated. First of all, it is important to know that I am leaning strongly towards the republican view. Not stating so beforehand would be wrong in my mind. The issue I had was with the NOS newscast of the US shutdown. It was not incorrect, but there were issues that have not been mentioned, which were at the centre of it all.

I see this all as the republican move to stop the abundant of irresponsible spending by a democratic party run government. Yes, we know that this is not about the fiscal cliff this time, but the government budget is directly linked to this. The democrats have taken the debt out of acceptable proportions.

Let us not forget that the US has a 17,000 BILLION dollar debt, this comes down to 340 billion dollars per state. In addition, if we look back to the Californian change in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor, former governor Gray Davis was confronted with a recall because the state shortfall was only 10% of the 340 Billion. That was directly due to the dot com boom collapse and a large group of companies were suddenly in a position no longer able to pay taxation, which meant that California, one of the richest states was suddenly without cash. Now the simple logic that follows, if one of the richest states cannot pay 10% of the outstanding debt, how can the others pay at all? This is the big cake that gets layers after layer of icing. With each layer it is presented as something that can be dealt with, but both democrat and republicans have no real solution. This is at the core of it all. So it is not just about the government budget, it is the issue that the budget is not realistic and that it is only adding to the debt. So when I see the part where Democrat Nita Lowey is talking about a compromise, then I end up splitting my guts with laughter. For two administrations there has not been any decent level of compromise. The republican view is that spending MUST go down by a lot. We could view the state by state comparison, especially against the Netherlands. Most states are larger than the Netherlands and none have a realistic approach to dealing with a 340 billion dollar debt. Now compare that to the Netherlands having to cut 6 billion and the view is almost complete. We all have to tighten the belt and within the USA this would last for no less three generations. The view I am proclaiming to be correct does have issues as well. It is however the view I behold. After Detroit, which already has gone bust, almost two dozen cities are facing the same problem in the US. Fresno, Compton and Oakland are three of them and they are all in California (one of the three rich states). If we would take a deeper look at the 50+ largest cities, then we see healthcare and retirement cost issues that make Detroit look like a joke. It is the healthcare part that is at the centre of it all. The Republicans are utterly convinced that Obama Care will not solve it at all. It will just add to the massive debts. What has been propagated as a solution to all, is in the realistic view of many a non-solution that will push forward debts and invoices that cannot be paid for in the end and as such people will face even more hardship down the line. Not to mention the fact that healthcare professionals might end up seeking greener pastures outside of the US.

The budget shortage is not new. This has been going on since 1995 (at least), however, in those days former president Clinton had two advantages. The first was that the government coffers had a cash surplus. Second was that the dot com boom was going nice. Consultancy firms were going strong, the incomes were really nice and consultants were making loads of cash by selling concepts. So, people were buying ideas and not an existing product. No matter what the reason was (like 9/11), it was the spending that the Bush administration started which gave the treasury such a negative jolt. It was nowhere near the spending that President Obama did, but he did not start this, so let us be fair about it. Against the current administration it must be stated that the no true legislation has been passed stopping Wall street the way it should, so there is no evidence that this will not happen again. And we are all aware that the economic thrashing started all with the Wall Street Clam bake ‘lets go hedge funds’ that was a huge part of the predicament we have now.

The question from the NOS ‘Is there no talking with the Republicans?‘ is not the only question and the one sided part of it is not correct. The linked question is ‘Can US overspending not be contained?‘ is the side the Republicans are dealing with. That part does not seem to be addressed by anyone. We see that side when we look at all the other places, including the Netherlands, the UK and Australia. They all have their own budget ghosts to deal with.

The Dutch government has its own cross to bear trying to find solutions to a 6 billion cutting spree. Too much talking and for too long no results. If we take all these sides (in all the talked about nations), then perhaps another method should be found. The first part is to cut ALL political incomes by 20% and no overtime payment at all (not sure if they get that to begin with). That should make a decent cut in the cost to the national treasuries and might make for quicker decisions. In my view I see no solution in any way to lower taxation. I think that this approach is an unrealistic one. What might be a solution is to change it all to a two tiered tax system with only 27% and 39%. That might work, but only if ALL tax deductibility’s are removed. This has two benefits. The system becomes simpler, and over all, with no deductibility’s left it becomes a clear approach. In addition there is a need to make all commerce taxable at the point of sale (the location of the purchaser’s keyboard). This must be where the buyer physically is. This is to take a stance on that Google, Amazon, et al approach, where on-line companies seem to be selling it all from an empty office in Ireland at taxation levels which should be regarded as a joke.

The system has to be changed. We have heard so many voices that a solution can be made, whilst ZERO results have been achieved for close to a decade. When we see administrations of entire cities go bust, it is time to just end whining about a solution that remains no more than a concept.

By the way, when we look at spending it all, what has been the end result? The fact that the US, the bulk of the Commonwealth and the Netherlands are spending way too much (compared to what is coming in though taxation) is out of proportions. That is why the republicans are putting their foot down and so far there is no evidence that they are holding the wrong position.

What is the right position? That is the question and I do not know whether the Republican position will be the correct one either. Yet, staying with the Democratic view whilst we have almost a decade of evidence that it is not working seems to be a flawed point of view. That view is reinforced by the Heritage foundation where it was quoted “While federal revenues are recovering from the recent recession, spending is growing sharply, resulting in four consecutive years of deficits exceeding $1 trillion.

So the US government has been spending more than a trillion more then it received. Consider that in 2011 the total revenue was set at 2.3 trillion, spending 43% more then you get each year is not a good idea. Consider that the recession is not done by a long-shot; overspending 40% annually will have long term consequences.

If we accept that a government is not a profit based organisation then we could consider that a government would collect taxation at 105%-110% of what it needs. When you spend money and then only collect 71% you are going to need guarantees that things will go wrong. So when I stated that it will take 3 generations to get rid of the debt I was not kidding. In addition, the 17 trillion was just the national debt. The total debt is set at 60 trillion (roughly). This means that every state in the US would have to come up with 1.2 trillion dollars to deal with it. (I know it is not fair, but I need to show an example).

If we consider the three richest states and considering the 2012 numbers (from http://www.census.gov/govs/statetax) we see the following:

The collected taxation from California was 112.3, New York 71.5 and Texas 48.5, all in billions of dollars. So whether we use either the 340 billion or the larger 1.2 trillion, only 3 of the 50 states have any chance of paying it to any effect. Viewing these numbers, do the math and we see that things must change (by a lot). The Heritage foundation is also showing that current entitlements are double the defence budget. How does this relate to Obama care? Will the info they state gives us that the additional costs by 2019 which was set at 100 billion, which is a little over 12% of all collected annual taxes. So, another 100 billion needed whilst there is no income against that. The slide states “Obama care imposes numerous tax hikes which total more than $500 billion over 10 years. Obama care’s higher tax rates on income and investment will slow economic growth, leaving hardworking American families and businesses worse off.

These are the issues that the republicans are fighting. We have seen enough ‘evidence’ to know that most economic recovery for Europe will not commence until 2015. So, as the GOP (Republican Party) is watching these developments, whilst they are watching the additional entitlement costs go up even further, costs, which are pushing their sense of humour all the way to the basement of Congress. This means that there are additional issues stopping the America from regaining its status of ‘economic superpower’. So these are some of the elements that are not too ‘illuminated’ as the US government squabble goes on. The only bonus I see at present, is that when the government shuts down, they should consider not paying any of the elected Democrats and Republicans for these days either. It might at least save the treasury a few dollars.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics