Tag Archives: Israel

November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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November 4, 2024 · 20:41

Its not just bread

We all relish bread. It is not always clearly on the front of our brains. But the one thing that keeps hunger at bay in every day of life is a piece of bread. The Khaleej Times gives us (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/uae-helps-gaza-bakeries-make-bread-again-amid-hunger-crisis) ‘UAE helps Gaza bakeries make bread again amid hunger crisis’ that the UAE has made clear moves to deal with this. 

Oh, and as far as I can see pretty much none of the others have done so. Can anyone show me clear evidence that the UNRWA has done the same to any degree? I do not see any of this information. Perhaps over the last 74 years that they were in some kind of office in Palestine whilst this oversight happened? The UNRWA gives us “Provide direct relief and works programmes for Palestinian refugees”, as such is bread not an essential initial need? Now we see “The UAE has started an initiative to help Gaza make bread again amid critical shortage due to the ongoing war. Countless of Palestinians have been surviving on bread as food supplies run out — but even bread is not always easy to find. Chaotic scenes have been unfolding at bakeries as crowds of hungry Gazan, young and old, scramble for a loaf.” As well as “As part of the drive, essential production supplies — including flour and other materials — have been provided so that bakeries could open again amid a worsening hunger crisis triggered by border closures and restrictions on food aid.”

It beckons the thought, did the UNRWA get anything done? No matter how ‘political’ the UN has become. The fact that the United Arab Emirates clearly shows the world that the UNRWA as well as the UN itself has become nothing less than a joke. We are given (in other media) “The UN system’s total revenue grew to US$ 74.3 billion in 2022 – an increase of US$ 8.4 billion, or 12.8%, compared to 2021. One of the entities with the highest absolute revenue growth is the World Food Programme (WFP)” an increase of $8.4 billion (not all WFP) is shown and how much went to the UNRWA? It is the Khaleej Times that gives us (see above) “As part of the drive, essential production supplies — including flour and other materials — have been provided” as such I wonder what that Russian Tool (António Guterres) is doing. He was ‘elected’ into office in 2017. As such he’s had plenty of time to seemingly do something. 

Only one day earlier we saw ‘UAE dispatches 12 trucks with urgent relief for 30,000 Palestinians’ with the underlying “So far, the country has provided more than 40,000 tonnes of urgent aid and it will continue its work to ensure the “immediate, safe, unhindered, and sustainable delivery of aid on a wide scale, through all possible means”” with that we see a first clear sign of evidence that the United Nations has a lot of explaining to do. 12 trucks is a clear start of doing just that. Whilst the United Nations is ‘discussing’ how to best go about it, the teams of Sultan Mohammed Al Shamsi is getting it done. I believe that the west, which is so stellar about the United Nations might reconsider who they think needs to be heading this disaster loaded organisation. 

That is my overly simplistic sense of this setting.

Have a great Monday.

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October 28, 2024 · 07:43

The setting of coins

The BBC had an interesting article yesterday. I was drawn between two settings. There is nothing wrong with the article. It is a point of view and anyone has that right. My setting was that the dimensionality is wrong. Some see Iran as a wimpy weasel, others as a weaselly wimp. I think they are both at the same time. That is as far as the difference is seen. The BBC in the shape of Jeremy Bowen hands us ‘Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo). I don’t think they look weak, they are weak. When you have to rely on terrorists to bring your message across, you are weak. And the setting that this brings is that a stabilising effect that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brought was torpedoed (for a lack of a better word) by Iran. Iran is so afraid to be the trivialising party in the middle east that they rely on three terrorist entities. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces. 

We are given “They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens” And the options of a bad series of choices is ‘encouraged’ by the west. Politico brought me this month the setting of loopholes that were created to enable other players to sell Russian oil, all legal (which is why we call it a loophole), yet this wasn’t created for Russia. Russia got to exploit the loophole the west made for Iran (my presumptuous thinking). Do you really think that Iran could have played the game this long if they didn’t have that loophole?

We are then given “Iran’s official media in the hours before and after Israel’s attacks carried defiant statements that, at face value, suggest the decision to respond had already been taken. Its language resembles Israel’s, citing its right to defend itself against attack. But the stakes are so high that Iran might decide to walk its threats back” which sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this weasel was hiding behind three terrorist organisation. Hamas has now been bombed back into the stone age and their leaders are hiding in Doha, Qatar (according to some sources). As far as I see it, Gaza did this to themselves. Hezbollah decided to rely on pagers and the top of Hezbollah basically messaged themselves to death. That is number two down. The assault was so complete that pretty much the entire top of Hezbollah blew themselves up. Who ever didn’t do this will follow soon I reckon. Then there is just the Houthi brach left. I reckon that the next 3-5 years amounts to Iran calling that branch with requests for the good of Shia Islam. Not sure how they will bring that news, but it is likely to take on that form. All the money that Iran invested would now be asked to validate through actions. Hamas has seemingly lost around 50% of its fighting force and the rest is dubious of continuing and finding real solutions for their family. Hezbollah has no top, this means that Iran needs to put advisors on the ground, or lose whatever they had left. And the Houthi’s will go in a new direction. As I personally see it, with the recruitment of child soldiers they are taking on the direction Hamas had and as some drone technology that evolved in the Ukraine, we will see soon a new frontier develop where drones can be sent to a generic location and start auto targeting a scope of realistic issues. There is every consideration that whatever drone abilities the Saudi government has will soon gain serious teeth. 

We are then given “Iran’s foreign ministry invoked its right to self defence “as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter”. A statement said Iran believed it was both entitled and obligated to respond to foreign acts of aggression”, this sounds nice, but Iran played the terrorist card and has done so for years, which makes its statement baseless. We can see America ‘pleading’ with Israel not to hit the oil reserves and the loophole for oil makes it a desired move, but Israel has its own concerns. These terrorist actions are funded by Iran and defund their oil is a tactical move to temporary stop funding, making the tactic valid. As we see “The men in Tehran thought they had a better idea than all-out war. Instead, Iran used the allies and proxies in its so-called “axis of resistance” to attack Israel. The Houthis in Yemen blocked and destroyed shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon forced at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes.” We are confronted with the harsh reality that Iran is considering extreme options and that is the final straw for Israel. They could bring to bare 125 missiles on Iranian oil fields and with that Iran will have no more options. A setting that was accelerated since 1979 comes to a stop when the oil becomes to tainted to be sold, it will be the oil that glows in the dark. And the world is fearing that moment. Too many stakeholders with their slice of pie that came from the oil loophole will end and there will be a lot of voices trying to delay this point. On the upside it would enable Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to set some solid work to make these two the solidifying hub of international cooperation on the Arabian peninsula. 

The largest question for the world will be what will Iran decide and they could find a way to make hay out of that. Because any escalation will lead to the end of Iran, a path that started 6000 years ago. It is anyones guess if the Iran of today realises that they are out of survivable options. I see three paths and two remain silent because it amounts (without evidence) to fear mongering. And I am not inclined to openly support that view. The play nice card sounds nice, but it would require Iran to disband sections of the IRGC as well as stop supporting terrorism. Will Iran see that light? When people have been on that violent streak for decades, it is hard to stop. I get that, but does Iran have any resolution left? Empty threats will not bring home the veal as they say.

Well, it’s Monday now, so have a great new day. 

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October 22, 2024 · 07:13

Can you lose more than once?

That is the underlying thought that came to me when I saw the article in CNN (at https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html) stating ‘Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say’, this is an issue (on more than one level). It. Comes with the underlying text “The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity”, we can jump high and low but America (already) has a massive problem. First there was the she-boy Manning, then we got the Airforce gamer Jack Teixeira and the list doesn’t stop there. The initial investigation into Jack Teixeira gave notice to ‘15 Air National Guardsmen disciplined in Discord server leak’. This is a larger issue. I personally do not care how this sails, but consider the following part “How many leaked documents did the Publics Republic of China hand us?” This is the setting that we all face. When we consider the CNN article with “The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” This implies that the remaining four eyes (namely Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) can now no longer trust America to keep Secret and higher classified documents under wraps. Optionally they are filled with Iranian players (possibly IRGC members) or people with Iranian allegiance. This is a problem, because that setting implies that Aman (military intelligence), Mossad (overseas intelligence) and Shin Bet (internal security) can no longer trust any information to America. 

Screenshot

This is not a joke, Israel has much of the goods (read: actionable intel) in the Middle East, the fact that America is in danger of being cut off from this makes their work harder. Consider actions being considered and the word from the CIA becomes “We don’t know at present” will stop a whole bunch of actions and that implies that America becomes a lot more inactive in the Middle East. This will not hinder China, but this becomes the first clear instance that Chinese intelligence will have the Mustard and America does not. It is also a first peg towards the setting that Saudi and Emirati intelligence would entertain thoughts on some collaboration with China on intelligence and as I see it America has enough problems at present.

Another part is seen with “One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.” A mere addition to the stage is “one of the documents” optionally we get a new view on US intelligence (see below).

And as such the CNN gives us both “A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment” as well as “The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran” which spells trouble for America. The immediate danger for them is that Commonwealth intelligence will become less available. The second danger is that Israeli intelligence will be cut short. That is merely the initial danger. The secondary danger is that both Saudi and Emirati intelligence will close their doors on parties like the CIA, ODNI, DNI, INR, NSA, DIA and that is merely the beginning. There could be a definite setting where the entire intelligence will get an overhaul. In a few years they went from a perspective of being awesome to a close to becoming an absolute joke and this is a field where ‘friends’ will close he doors on you. 

My personal view on this is that the commonwealth needs to close the doors and archives until America finds the leaks in their organisation(s). 

There is a second view in this that this was orchestrated to bind the hands of some, and that is equally a danger as the American navigators can change directions every 4 years. As such the others are almost forced to close their doors until America cleans its houses. 

Well, enjoy your day and according to the CIA, several readers should cut down on the sugar in their coffee.

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October 19, 2024 · 17:26

Kettle, pot and colouring

Yup, that is the setting for today. I saw the news yesterday or the day before and it angered me. The article (at https://cpj.org/2024/10/saudi-arabia-sentences-cartoonist-mohammed-al-ghamdi-to-23-years/) from the CPJ (committee to protect journalists) is as misguided as it is hypocritical. In the first instance I do not know Mohammed al-Ghamdi, I never saw his cartoons or red anything from him. As far as I am concerned as long as the CPJ does not hold its western journalists and editors up to any kind of standard, it needs to shut up. Yesterday I touched on the Politico article regarding Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud and it opened up some issues for me. There is more, the media neglects the interesting ‘good’ Saudi Arabia does and trivialises the harm that Saudi Arabia gets from Houthi terrorists. As such I say that the CPJ needs to shut up.

We are given that “a Saudi cartoonist for the Qatar-based Lusail newspaper, who was sentenced on an undisclosed date in 2024 to 23 years in prison on charges that his cartoons were sympathetic to Qatar and insulted the Saudi government” Saudi Arabia has laws, they might not be the laws the west heralds, but this is a Saudi event. I might not agree, but if I am in Saudi Arabia I would have to adhere to Saudi Laws and there is the chance that my articles fall in bad waters with Saudi Arabia. I do not know as I am not privy to those laws. As far as I know I never known and intentionally insulted anyone in the Saudi government (I might be wrong in this).

Countries have laws, the west (Commonwealth and Europe) for the most on the issue of freedom of speech and as such I tend to use that freedom of speech, yet in that instance I try to maintain a civil tongue. And when Charlie Hedbo was killed, I also supported France, I stood at a vigil in Sydney. I was not aware to the stage that drove someone to kill Charlie Hedbo, but I was in agreement that we had to protest this because Charlie Hedbo was not anti-Muslim. He drew on several occasions images that would have offended the church (the Vatican), as such he was equally ‘diplomatic’ on all faiths. 

Yet this is not about Charlie Hedbo, this is about the double standard the CPJ uses and until they hold western media to a serious level of account, they need to put up or shut up. 

This is pretty much it. I did not check some of the claims made and I am not saying these claims weren’t true. We get “It is time to break this longstanding pattern of imprisoning journalists. Saudi authorities must release al-Ghamdi and drop all charges against him” and I am not opposing this, but I find it interesting that numbers and reasons for imprisonment aren’t given. It this is about less then 5 journalists, it seems a trivial matter (compared to Turkey and a few other places). And lets not forget these Saudi Laws are all documented and as such these ‘journalists’ (optionally a mere one cartoonist) might have decided to leave the country, was that done? 

The CPJ gives us that 50 Journalists were killed in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 2024. So, where is the stink on these 50 journalists? Oh, and why is it “Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and why do we not see the segregation between “West Bank and the Gaza Strip” and “Israel”? It was a simple setting, but the CPJ seems to use a simplistic brush for that. And between 2018 and 2024 we see merely one seemingly killed and I raised plenty of articles between 2018 and 2024 shedding doubt on that setting. Another article gives us that 10 people were imprisoned all whilst the 2023 numbers have a top 10 (Saudi Arabia wasn’t there) and the top is China with 44 imprisoned, Russia with 22, Iran with 17, and Turkey with 13 imprisoned. Yet in all of these cases, we see an absence of reasons and there is the issue. The (western) press has in the last 10 years lost pretty much all credibility, as such a reason for imprisonment is required. I have an issue with the CPJ because a population with less credibility than a drug pusher in a school yard has several issues and I do not think the CPJ is in a position to demand any kind of charge drop until the status quo of journalists is re-established with a level of credibility that most of us find acceptable. The chase for digital dollars in the last decade pretty much diminished their right for a ‘protected’ status. 

People might not like my view on the matter, but that is my preview on the matter. Perhaps the CPJ would like to rewrite the article in something more palatable?

Have a great Saturday.

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October 16, 2024 · 22:46

The Squeezing hand

The Arab News had an interesting piece two days ago. It starts with ‘Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah’ and it can be found (at https://arab.news/9bh3s). The story comes from Dr. Majid Rafizadeh and he talks an interesting talk (you know how these Harvard types tend to be). We get to see “The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.” Where we are also given “Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy.” We can from this gain the insight that the actions from Israel has met its goals. This is meant plural as we see in the first that they eradicated the top of Hezbollah and as such a whole new cadre of Hezbollah need to be interned and trained to keep the money streams going, as well as the hardware they require. And here lies the second tier of a new challenge. Iran will need a whole range of ‘military advisors’ in that region and that gives its own sides of problems (as I personally see it). The second tier becomes that the initial ‘brotherly’ setting towards Hamas is backfiring. So either Hamas commits to Hezbollah as well, or they become a lot more isolated. Yet the stage that is given through “There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence” As Israel pounds Lebanon the options for Hezbollah decrease, by a fair bit. An expression that comes to mind is “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze”, this is not merely the act of squeezing, but it reflects on the fruit as well. If you have a fruit half the size the squeeze is no longer worth it and that is the part that Iran faces in this year and the next. As Hezbollah is dramatically downsized by Israel, Iran loses more and more regional influence and if Israel hits oil targets the stage will soon collapse. Yes, I saw all kinds of news that Israel stated that they will limit the attack to military targets and here is the little loophole. Oil is a valid military target as Iranian oil (a slight speculation) fuels all kinds of terrorist needs. 

And then we see the immense failure of America (CIA), we are given “Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests” For over a decade a clear strategy against Hezbollah was required, but the CIA and other intelligence machines fell short. So are they really out there aiding Israel, or are they aiding the setting of prolonged instability? I made this accusation a few years ago and I am seemingly proven correct again and again. 

The article ends with “the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies” I can see this side and whilst I do not agree on this stance coming, I can clearly see that it will a likely output. To thwart this setting and steer the Arabian peninsula towards a larger shaped stability, Israel would gain a lot by pounding Hezbollah back to the stone age (as expressions go). So in the line of “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” there are two sides deciding this. Make the fruit smaller and weaken the squeezing hand. These two settings will end the ‘reign’ of Iran over Hezbollah and that is what is needed. Iran is playing a dangerous game going all the way back to June 2023. The attack of 7 October 2023 took time, there were training flights, there were preparations and Iran was the assisting hand since before day one. That is the side that the media ignores, that is the side that was in the open and the allies (say friends) of Israel never saw this coming? The writer (Dr. Majid Rafizadeh) brings a good case I fully agree with him, yet my (non-informed) side has issues. You see Iran has been doing this for at least 18 years and I think that more people should be in the know on this. I wonder how many people are ‘dissuading’ people due to the crude oil loophole I discussed in ‘Is it merely political?’ on October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) I wonder how many stakeholders get fed of that premise? I do not know, but the need for greed and ‘hand outs’ make this a much bigger issue than you think and that is not good. Because it allows Iran to play the same dangerous game for much too long. Agree or disagree as you see fit, but ask your self the question. ‘How is Iran playing this game for this long and the media isn’t up to speed?’ It is nice to blame the media, but the fact that they didn’t report on many occasions makes their hands tainted as I see it, and they also refrained to expose several stake holders in the process. How does that hit you?

And a mere 50 minutes ago we see the the Washington Post give us: ’Israel strikes southern Beirut; U.S. demands restraint in Lebanon, aid for Gaza’, I wonder what they didn’t report on, because that part needs to be exposed as well. The added text “Separately, the administration gave Israel a month to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, warning it could otherwise take punitive steps, including withholding military aid”, the Times of Israel gives us IDF data shows over 26,000 rockets fired at Israel. My small question becomes “What was the cost of that?” If a rocket costs a mere $100,000, than Hamas kept a little over 2.6 billion out of the mouths of Palestinians and that is merely 2023. As such Hezbollah also fired missiles, The group reportedly has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges between 160 and 300 kilometres, What were those costs? As such how could Iran pay for it all? Both Hamas and Hezbollah did not pay top dollar for that, so what was the hand out by Iran? In 1976 we got the phrase “Follow the money”, it comes from the movie ‘All the presidents men’, as I see it Bob Woodward really screwed the media over with that one (me, laughing out loud), oh, and he was involved with the Washington Post for some time. So who trailed the Iranian money?

Have a great day.

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October 14, 2024 · 16:41

What we see as good

That is at times the question. You see, we see via Twitter and Facebook all kind of dubious shenanigans on how we would be saved by another Crusade (implied innuendo). That sounds nice, but the setting was that we had to go there thrice and still it ended in an uneasy truce. Now there is absolutely no guarantee that Christians will succeed this time around. The first crusades were enacted through greed and pillaging and even now the Christians remain in denial of that part. I do not think this will ever change. And it gets from bad to worse after that. The ‘west’ is still working under the believe that they can come on top of it. Just like the NRA believing that they stand a chance against the US military in an insurrection mode. (It took me 30 minutes to stop myself from howling from laughter).

You see, “The Cabinet of the United Arab Emirates, following the implementation of the UAE Federal Law No. 7 in November 2014, designated a list of 83 organisations and entities including the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Hezbollah, Houthis and the Islamic State as terrorist organisations” that was a decade ago, they still see Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation. As such it is remarkable that the Khaleej Times gives us ‘Thousands of UAE residents turn up at Expo City Dubai to pack aid boxes for Lebanon’ (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/hundreds-of-uae-residents-turn-up-to-expo-city-dubai-to-pack-aid-boxes-for-lebanon) it is here that we see how utterly remarkable the people of the UAE are. Here we are given “Thousands of UAE residents turned up at the Dubai Exhibition Centre in Expo City early on Saturday morning to pack aid kits for those affected by the crisis in Lebanon. Some left homes as early as 6am to make it to the event which began at 9. Many brought items to contribute, which were collected at the location while others chose to make monetary contributions to registered charities at the event” now reflect on this against the events in Europe where affected countries include Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Thousands of people have been evacuated; at least 26 people have died, and thousands have been displaced. So tell me how many people got into an active mode to help and support these people? Not that many (a pure guess on my side) and here we see thousands of people supported through goods and donations as well as packing the parcels for the people affected. 

And these westerners thinks that they can ‘fuel’ a new crusade setting? Don’t make me laugh. 

Even the UAE organisers were amazed as we read “The capacity of the hall is 1,000 people and that’s how many people we were expecting,” said Dr Tariq Al Gurg, CEO and Vice Chairman of Dubai Cares. “But we have already had 2,500 volunteers, and we are expecting it to rise to 3,500 or 4,500 by the end of the session. We had to really rapidly change the strategy to ensure as many people could have the experience. The packing sessions were shortened to about 40 minutes.” A hall sized up for a thousand people and they ran out of space well before noon and think of a thousand people in a place that goes warmer than 36 degrees Celsius. That is what the people are up against. A whole ‘horde’ of people who make it their business to give aid to the people of 

Lebanon. It is also here where we see “He said the 10,000 boxes that the volunteers packed were just part of the aid being provided to Lebanon. “We will give them tents, drinking water, food supplies and hygiene kits. Also, we will get them proper instructors to get them psychosocial support.”” That is what Lebanon needs (well they heed a seize fire more), but that is all in the hands of Hezbollah and whilst they hide behind the three killed UN soldiers. The papers are eager to dismiss the fact that Israel told the UN soldiers to get out of the way, but they refused. I cannot fault either side for this, but the fact that Hezbollah (in support of Hamas) decided to fire on Israel was pretty much the dumbest thing they decided on in 2024. But on the good side, the people of the UAE rallied for the people of Lebanon and that is equally dismissed (as far as I could tell) by the western media. And this isn’t the only event, a similar event is being conducted in Abu Dhabi on Sunday (October 14th) at the cruise terminal. Dr Al Gurg said similar packing events will be held in the coming weeks as well. And that is who these Crusade claiming weirdo’s want to go up against? In 1095 the Westerners had over a century of advantage and they barely got out alive they lost a few million lives, on equal footing (now) it is massively likely that the west will not survive that stupidity. But it is not about the neo-Crusades. It is about how a country (the United Arab Emirates) decided to unite to give aid to the Lebanese. A nation 2500 km away from Lebanon and they rallied like nothing else. I wonder what happens when they really set the marker  on what these volunteers of the UAE find unacceptable.

As such I say, well done emirates and on a side note (as I find the setting to hilarious for words) there is every chance that Jerusalem at some point will see

Determination of the people is half the war and these Neo Crusade weepers might take notice of what we see in the Khaleej Times. And when you take notice of that, also take notice on the western media not taking notice (as far as I could tell). So well done Dubainese and Abu Dhabians. Well done!

Enjoy the day.

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October 12, 2024 · 16:11

The afterthought

It is Reuters that gave us ‘Exclusive: Stop Israel from bombing Iran’s oil sites, Gulf states urge US’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/stop-israel-bombing-irans-oil-sites-gulf-states-urge-us-2024-10-11/) Now normally this doesn’t bother or alert me, but after the 6th when I wrote ‘Is it merely political?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) where we got to see “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” Now we see Gulf states all ‘worried’ about Iran, or are they perhaps worried about the cheap deal they have from Iran counting in the billions? A setting that most of us ignored as we were unaware of the loophole. But now, even after Iran threatens Israel, we are given “Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters” and in the article we aren’t given any names are we? Which Gulf sources? I think that we are entitled those answers, are we not? Isn’t it interesting that Reuters missed that beat, but then the media is becoming less and less reliable. And it makes sense that the first thing Israel goes after is the money, hence the oil. And in all of this Gulf states are urging the US to stop Israel from bombing oil sites? Who are the stake holders, what Gulf nations are involved and how is that money flowing? More important how can we track that money. How can we expose these exploiters? 

These are all questions that are derived from the article on the 6th of October that Politico gave us. If they rebranded 2 billion of Russian oil, there is nothing to stop us thinking that Iran gave others a lot more and from the gulf states there is plenty of players around to do whatever it takes to get a share of a mere 50 million and this has been going on for a while (a speculative thought). The Russia story came out relatively fast, but the Iran dilemma has been going on for decades and now with the Hezbollah eradication as well as the pounding of Hamas, these stake holders are worried that their well dries up and now they are speculatively crying like little bitches that their free ride is drying up. OK, that might have been a little over the top but the sentiment comes across, does it not? Now, I could be wrong, one sides does not prove the other. To put it simplistically every cube is a orthotope, not every orthotope is a cube. As such what is happening in Russia might not happen in Iran. On the other hand, what was set in motion to be applied to Iran was pretty much a setting for Russia as well. And the media isn’t asking questions, why not?

Until recently when Politico showed us the loophole no one asked questions and now they should have asked a few questions, yet they still are not. How weird is that?

Apply that to the fact that we are merely give “three Gulf sources told Reuters” and no one wakes up? Why is that?Journalists are not that dim, as such, I suspect that at least one stakeholders has a larger finger in the journalism pie of Reuters. Just a thought to consider.

Have a great weekend.

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October 4, 2024 · 21:11

Accepted doubt

This is on my, or better stated my view on matters. In this case it is the Reuters article ‘Exclusive:  Kushner has discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomacy with Saudi crown prince’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/kushner-has-discussed-us-saudi-diplomacy-with-saudi-crown-prince-2024-10-04/) which was released less than 30 minutes ago. I have had serious doubt on the media on a near global stage and at this moment Reuters has gained several points towards doubt. Yet, in this case I am willing to put doubt on my ability to see things clearly. 

So, lets take a look.

“The news that Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader discussed a peace accord”, here we see the statement “de-facto leader”, we know that Saudi Arabia still has a king, but what stops Reuters to state “The news that Kushner and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud discussed a peace accord”, both are in principle correct. Yet the Reuters statement comes across as Saudi bashing. ‘To put a person in its place’ might be the interpretation as many would see it, especially in the Middle East. Then we get “renew questions about whether Kushner’s financial ties with Riyadh could influence U.S. policy under his father-in-law”, so what is the issue here? It is a serious question because the article does not give us a complete report on what those ties are, we get a link to the Hill, there we see ““crossed the line of ethics” by accepting a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government in his private investment firm six months after he left the White House” my question in this is were laws broken? You see, the investment was done AFTER he left the White House. So were laws broken, or were they not. 

Then we get “To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, the Biden administration has offered Riyadh security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program and a renewed push for a Palestinian state. The deal could reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding the world’s biggest oil exporter to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region” How come that China is diminished with “when China is making inroads in the region” and what is this about “assistance with a civilian nuclear program”. My issue is that China has been making inroads for the better part of two years. As such making inroads, comes across as a joke, massively inaccurate. So why was the civilian nuclear program added? Could be true, could be anything. But the media at present has a massive credibility issue and whilst space on a webpage is nearly free, Reuters is a little stingy on using it.

Last we get to “The Saudi relationship with Trump was notably close. Trump’s first foreign trip as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, accompanied by Kushner. After Saudi expatriate opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump stood by the crown prince in spite of a U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing. MbS denied involvement.” Is filled with inaccuracies. No clear evidence has been produced that Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Turkey, there was an assumption and the setting that “U.S. intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing” is even more inaccurate. The document A/HRC/41/CRP.1 which was given to the world by the Human Rights Council does not give us that either. In that report U.S. Intelligence is mentioned twice. In one case we are given “The Directive states that if a U.S. intelligence agency “acquires credible and specific information indicating an impending threat of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping,” that agency has a duty to warn the intended victim.” No mention of authorisation or anything regarding an order by Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. I am adding that document at the bottom. As such I have issues with the Reuters article. 

There is more but read the article yourself. The article hands us a pice of evidence that Reuters is losing credibility. 

I am not a Trump fan, but at present there is a larger stage and the Biden administration of fumbling the ball, and as issues go at present, China will be a large bigger inroad in the Middle East (Saud Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) in 2025 and I have to wonder how much inroad they will make in Egypt in 2025.

But I hope that the message comes across. And in the second stage, what laws did Kushner break? Because in the end that is what matters. 

Have a great day

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September 29, 2024 · 22:23

The first stage in a setting

This is the first of two, the second is of a much lighter sense, as such I am leaving this for desert. The first one (this one) is heavy and will offend a whole lot of people. I have stated this opinion before, but that stage got back in my mind after I saw this article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue) where we are given ‘Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about Palestinian issue’, it sounds nice. We are then given “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue”, according to a report in The Atlantic.” I do Care and as the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia (Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud) tells us “Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative to establish a Palestinian state and garner support for the implementation of a two-state solution after decades of international efforts failed, leading the region to the brink of an all-out war”, which several sources told us including Al-Arabiya (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2024/09/27/saudi-arabia-announces-new-global-coalition-to-establish-palestinian-state).

My view is that I have nothing against the establishment of Palestine, but it does urgently require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is a hate only party and sooner or later they will abide by the ‘requests’ of Iran and hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran wants to be at the head of the table, or they will ensure that no one will sit there and destabilisation continues. That time has passed and Iran still depends on Houthi and Hamas to bring their point across in the most violent way possible. Now that Hezbollah has been carved into pieces by Israel, Houthi terrorists will think twice on continuing on a path where they ‘assist’ Iran in any way possible. And sooner or later (probably sooner) Iran will find a way for Palestinians or Yemeni’s to find a low paying jobs just to throw wherever they are (in the KSA or UAE) to foul things up. In simple ways that will demand long term repairs or even reconstructing parts that were already done and soon (either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates) will through ‘anonymous’ sources to get a larger seat for Iran at the table. This is not speculation, it is presumption based on the actions of Iran over the last 20 years. And as such The eradication of Hamas is a given need. When they fall away Iran has merely Yemen to fall back onto and that stops Iran (for now) in its tracks. As Yemen (read Houthi terrorists) sees what damage Israel did to Hezbollah and Hamas next, they will choose a non-violent path, especially when Iran stops taking their calls. 

I believe that there are options especially as Iran loses the two terrorist allies they have. I don’t think it will be the end of it, but I believe that stability in the middle east is essential to a better world and too many power players think that destabilisation is key to their wealth. That needs to stop. I know that it is merely my view and many will state that I am wrong, but as I see it, there are too many people having blind faith in Iran turning a page to a better future, all whilst this path has been walked by administrations for 3 decades. It is time to call it quits. We need solutions there and they need to be made by the right people. Oh, and for those that think that this isn’t essential. Remember that Hamas on 7 October 2023 initiated a sudden attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As part of the attack, 364 individuals, mostly civilians, were killed and many more wounded at the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, an open-air music festival during the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret near kibbutz Re’im and they took 40 people hostage. As far as we know from those 40 hostages, 14 of the hostages are still being held captive. That has been the focal point for Israel. And the setting that we see with the ‘proclaimed’ 40,000 deaths and it was clear months ago that Israel stated ‘Let our people go’ that is what Hamas pushed for and now that Hezbollah has lost pretty much the complete top of their structure (pager by pager) Iran is worried and so should Hamas be. I get that Saudi Arabia wants to stand by Muslims and that is something a lot of people understand, but it does require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas did this to themselves on October 7th 2023. Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) need to focus on stability for the middle east and in this case I count Egypt as a middle eastern player. Egypt will be important to Saudi Arabia down the line with 5G advancements as well as the fact that 111 million Egyptians are a great goal for the Saudi Broadcasting Authority, they could largely increase their visibility, moreover, it would allow Egypt to broadcast to Muslims in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. And from there, optionally to more nations in Europe. But that is merely my insight lacking view on the matter. OK, it has a personal view. As more islamic people get connected to streaming TV and streaming solutions, my script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ might actually be released at some point (my ego tends to seek solutions too).

It is almost Monday now. So have a great day and you will hopefully enjoy this Sunday.

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