Giggling is the better medicine

This morning (around 03:00) I felt the need to check my mobile (a compact version of the invention by James Alexander Bell) or something of the sort. Inaccurate? Perhaps, but everything comes from somewhere. And as we all look towards roots, I looked at the screen and suddenly stopped. You see, I saw a Microsoft header with layoffs pass by. This is nothing to worry about, or new. They are all laying off people, all the big ones, so that is not cause for concern. Microsoft employs 224000 people, so they might cast a few more away. But I had not actually seen the details of the news, as such my trusty Chrome looked at the news of Microsoft and there a few things came up. And the count is important (for later)

1. We see all kinds of advertisements with the Surface Pro being reduced $300 in one direction, $400 in another. There are all kinds of ‘offers’ but why would you want to discount THAT much? 
2. Layoffs. We see ‘Microsoft lays off employees in security, experiences and devices, sales, and gaming’ (source; Business insider), ‘Microsoft staff face second round of layoffs as firm continues cost-cutting measures’ (source: ITPro) several sources claim that the layoffs will be small, but no numbers are given. Now this makes sense in light of the ‘redundancies’ at Google, Amazon, Meta (say Facebook) and a few others. Another source gave us “Microsoft plans to pause hiring in part of its U.S. consulting business and said last week that it would lay off less than 1% of its workforce”, still that could be up to 2200 people, when you are one of them percentages really don’t make a difference. 
3. The information gives us ‘Microsoft’s Gaming Business Falls Short, Despite Activision’, This is fun. You see in 2023 Activision Blizzard had a market cap of A$120.08 Billion. Microsoft only paid 75 billion for the company and in early days I stated that a gaming company is only as valuable as the last game, and in 2022 Activision Blizzard’s annual revenue amounted to 7.53 billion U.S. dollars, as such Microsoft needs this to go on for 10 years just to break even. I warned for that and now we got ‘Microsoft’s Gaming Business Falls Short’, the Information (at https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsofts-gaming-business-falls-short-despite-activision) gives us also “In the year to June, Microsoft’s gaming business revenue grew 5.8%, well below the 11% target set for the purpose of calculating part of Nadella’s compensation, according to securities filings. (That growth excludes revenue of Activision since its acquisition but includes Game Pass)”, it amounts to the fact that ‘gaming’ revenue is 50% short. Not good news I say. And when others come with complex stories that it has a few more sides. I say revenue is revenue and it is 50% short, that is the part others look at. And Newsweek gives us ‘Activision Hasn’t Helped Microsoft Grow Xbox Game Pass, Says Report’ (at https://www.newsweek.com/entertainment/activision-hasnt-helped-microsoft-grow-xbox-game-pass-says-report-2015392) where we also see “Microsoft was hoping that acquiring Activision would lure other game developers to rent its Azure servers, which hasn’t happened” not surprising. Developers like numbers and with a 3:1 margin Sony is a much more appealing choice for the first stage of any development. And the bad news doesn’t end there, we see at TechRadar (at  https://www.techradar.com/computing/gaming-pcs/theres-one-handheld-gaming-pc-that-went-under-the-radar-at-ces-2025-and-its-got-a-secret-weapon-to-beat-the-competition#) that Tencent now released the Tencent Sunday Dragon 3D One at CES 2025, a setting that was (kinda) clear over a year ago and my IP was set to that device and if successful (here’s hoping) it will cost Microsoft a lot more, well at least they bought Activision at $10 per $1 (OK, not entirely accurate, but I’ll go with that feeling). 

So three points, all relate to revenue. Lack of two, lack of innovation in one (spin stories aren’t innovative) and whilst we are ‘given’ ‘Xbox Game Pass expected to make $5.5 billion in 2025’ expected isn’t something that is achieved and there might be more bad news on the horizon, which will set the spin engines to overdrive. To compare, Nintendo reported in September 2024 a Revenue of 276.66B, can you see why I giggle? Microsoft ‘sickofans’ are elated on the optionally coming revenue of Microsoft Game Pass that is merely 2% of Nintendo’s revenue. And that is next year whilst Nintendo is already slaying the revenue dragon. The revenues of Microsoft are likely to lack visibility for some time to come. Some of the reviews of the 2024 Surface Pro aren’t anywhere near stellar (and it needs to be) as such my predictions for the downfall of Microsoft are still achievable. I reckon that when the first AI milestones start failing the domino’s will take a tumble making Microsoft cut more and more meat of their bones. All this whist more and more people see through the presented spin (as I tend to call it) You see, with the promise of tomorrow you better deliver tomorrow and certain parties bought into that and as such when delivery stays short of achieving. The dice get cast in a very different direction. For me it’s easy. I merely have to wait for the predictions too fall short and Microsoft is lacking in more and more fields and as such as Tencent makes larger gains the stage doesn’t just change, it crumbles. I wonder where Amazon is, because with their Luna they had options. I initially designed for that track (merely because Google dropped their stadia) and should Amazon get on top of the Unreal Engine 5, the stage is seeded with Amazon opportunities. A setting Microsoft totally ignored (also they were not invited to my IP clambake). As such I reckon that there will be a hiatus until Microsoft announces more lay offs. And I have seen that before. They will ‘call’ it streamlining and what I see is an empty egg. The shell of the egg looks smooth, but you cannot eat it. In 2023 we got ‘Microsoft outage worsened by staff shortage’, so before you cut your less than 1%, was your staff shortage secured? And when that happens, where are the other shortages? Where one source gave us ‘Microsoft has published a preliminary report into an incident on 30 August that finds insufficient data centre staffing levels contributed to an outage’ and another gave us ‘Microsoft had three staff at Australian data centre campus’, a data centre with 3 staff members? I reckon Microsoft has a few more problems (I reckon planning being one of them). 

So have a great day and consider where you are now and where you optionally could be.