Tag Archives: Motley fool

Filters

If life is filtering, we are thrown between conspiracy theories and perceived loyalty information. Then there are the setting of media influencer and media de influencing. We are thrown in these 4 battles and the media is part of at least two of them, almost all time. And there is no going back. Yes, this is highly speculative but there is an underlying consideration to that. I am forgoing the first two for now (even as my view might be seen as ‘evidence’ of the first view. 

When we go for the second two there is ‘new’ evidence. I have said over the last 5 years that nothing gets printed by the media unless it has approval of the shareholders, the stake holders and the advertisers. That is how the media tends to work and then there is a new layer that works for some of the media. Flames are published at the bequest of the designers (or the editors) through which the digital dollar elopers work. Flames get people riled up, they respond to flames more eagerly and that results in clicks, hence digital dollars. As such the media has lost their point of neutral view and left us with the view that captures their clicks. This is not only detrimental to the truthful view (aka the news they bring) but it also gives us their wanted view, their ‘click-ability’ as views go. 

So the new ‘evidence’ is seen in a few ways. There is Forbes who gives us “Over the past decade, Oracle stock has emerged as a premier capital-return engine, distributing a remarkable $158 billion to shareholders—the 9th highest total in corporate history. This payout is composed of $35 billion in dividends and a massive $123 billion in share buybacks, representing roughly 31.5% of the company’s current market capitalization. Separately, earnings and revenues beat expectations, but the stock went down? Supported by resilient cash flows from its shift to cloud-based infrastructure and database services, Oracle’s strategy emphasizes enhancing earnings per share through aggressive stock repurchases. While it trails leaders like Apple ($847 billion) and Microsoft ($368 billion) in sheer volume, Oracle’s consistent return of capital highlights a mature balance between funding its high-growth cloud and AI initiatives and rewarding its long-term investor base with reliable financial yields.” Forbes gives us this news (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2026/01/29/how-oracle-stock-returned-158b-to-shareholders/) and could be seen as ‘news’, some will see it that way (including me) but what caused this all? Was it a mere setting that players like the Motley Fool (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/01/29/why-oracle-stock-slumped-on-thursday/) who gives us ‘Why Oracle Stock Slumped on Thursday’ with the subtext “There was no company-specific news to explain the enterprise database and artificial intelligence (AI) specialist’s decline. However, a cloud competitor posted results that investors found wanting. Oracle released the results that were greeted with a similar, chilly reception. Revenue of $16.1 billion grew 14% year over year, while adjusted EPS of $2.26 jumped 54%. Its remaining performance obligation (RPO) jumped 438% to $523 billion, highlighting Oracle’s vast backlog.” It could be seen as news and perhaps it merely is. There is however a new power in play and I cannot see the full form because the bulk of the media is hovering away from visibility and they no longer have trustworthiness. I believe that a new power is rising to undo what corporations are doing, I merely believe that it works at the bequest of some governments to either short sell whatever these companies have or represent, or to gain through short selling. I know it is merely speculation but this is my belief. Now there are ‘hairy’ investment settings and they are on Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle to some degree, but there is another force at work here and I cannot see the complete stage, merely shadows and shims of it, the media has become too unreliable and they want to cut back on the value of these three participant (optionally more participants). I know I have spoken out against AI on numerous occasions, but now we get certain parties illuminating the parts the required no illumination and I don’t think it is by accident.

What Gives?
SO, am I the conspiracy theorist, or the perceived loyalty information giver? I could be the second part (the first one too). I almost blindly belief in the good of Oracle, so the second is an option and it is perceived as I do not work for Oracle, as such I am not in the know. Oracle has been a force for good for over 30 years, as such the faith in Oracle is almost blindly, is that a correct setting to take?

I know that Oracle is in the deep with all these data centres, but are then all owned by Oracle? Are certain governmental parties driving the price down so they can cut costs? As per now Major hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are expected to invest approximately $400 billion in 2026 alone to meet this demand. In the U.S. specifically, nearly 3,000 new data centers are planned or under construction, adding to over 4,000 already operational. 3,000 planned per 2026 as such Oracle stock should be going through the roof (Alpha, Amazon and Microsoft wouldn’t be doing so badly either), but that is not what we are seeing. And I have to wonder why. There are of-course energy issues, but Oracle is providing the technology. So how many data centres are owned by oracle? The image does not compute (as the term goes) and the image is not being given to us clearly by the media and that gives us the two second filters. So isn’t anyone wondering what is in play here? Most will not care either way and for the most neither do I, but in the current political situation where the United States does what it damn well likes regardless of all other voices now gives us a new setting, the transference of powers to a new wielder and neither of them likes the power the current 4 biotech are wielding and they might have gotten away with it if they left Oracle alone, that gave me the lights and some might say they are merely pretty Christmas lights, they are a little out of time, but I am seeing dashboard warning lights and not the good kind. As such is it me (it could be) or is there more to this all?

That is now the question and as such as the weekend is starting for me and Vancouver has to go through today, find your way to coffee because there is never a bad time to have a cup of that.

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Why is a stage a stage?

That is at times a decent question. Even for me, because as I write this, I do so subjectively, nearly every writer does. Writer about his point of view and I am no better (or worse for that matter). It is the merging of two points of view and these points of view are others points of view and they have their own reasoning. It is not about good or bad, points of view almost never are in a set stage. But they must be watched as they influence your own point of view and whilst some are eager to give them all a one sided setting, I learned that this is not something that tends to help. Especially if points of view are multidimensional. As such, I give two points of view and blend them to my own stage.

The first was given by Yahoo Finance (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-oracle-became-a-poster-child-for-ai-bubble-fears-150039511.html) I don’t agree with that point of view but it was a decent setting of a stage. And stages are where we are.

The first setting gives us ‘How Oracle became a ‘poster child’ for AI bubble fears’ I don’t believe in that setting, but it matters for the whole story. “Oracle (ORCL) stock’s boom and bust in 2025 has become emblematic of the tech trade’s central conflict: Investors can’t decide whether AI is a generational opportunity or a looming risk.” But then we get “AI optimism continued to push Oracle shares higher following its quarterly earnings reports in June and September, with AI-driven deals set to push cloud segment revenue to $166 billion in 2030. The stock’s surge in September briefly made Ellison the world’s wealthiest person. But AI euphoria quickly gave way to doubt. Investors became increasingly concerned over the rising use of debt to fund tech firms’ AI spending, just as the payoff of that spending remains hotly debated. Those concerns are evidenced in the budding demand for Big Tech credit default swaps (CDS) — financial contracts that act as insurance by letting investors bet on the likelihood that a company will default on its debt.” And that setting is somewhat important, and for those who remember the 2008 crash, they fear the stage the the CDS and that is fine, I don’t think that this setting is great, but the stage of letting investors bet on the likelihood that a company will default on its debt is not really great, it is the stage where some will set or even orchestrate the need for some to fall and that is what makes the bubble burst and I gave that setting before (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/12/02/aftermath/) in the story ‘Aftermath’ where I highlighted parts of the equation. It is the second part that is the setting of the stage and it is about stages. You see, we all envision a stage whether it is the real stage sets part of the question and when we consider the stage we think matters, we might look at the size, the lighting or how we move on that stage. All matters for consideration but I digress. The second story was given to us by the Motley Fool (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/16/prediction-oracle-will-surpass-amazon-microsoft-an/) and there we get ‘Prediction: Oracle Will Surpass Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to Become the Top Cloud for Artificial Intelligence (AI) By 2031’ where we see “Oracle forecasts that revenue from its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) segment could grow from around $10 billion in its last fiscal year (fiscal 2025), to $18 billion in its current fiscal year (fiscal 2026), $32 billion in fiscal 2027, $73 billion in fiscal 2028, $114 billion in fiscal 2029, and $144 billion in fiscal 2030 — corresponding with calendar year 2031.” As well as “Oracle’s push into cloud infrastructure is arguably its boldest bet in the company’s history. Oracle isn’t cutting corners, either; it is bringing on dozens of data centers online in just a few years. It has built 34 multi-cloud data centers and should have another 37 online in less than a year.” Now we have seen two not aligned stages, but the actual stage it a lot larger. You see, the others all ‘want to align’ with Oracle, but that merely means that they want the solutions that Oracle has or get the customers that have selected Oracle, but the others forget something that matters. Oracle has been the data innovator for over 45 years and no one can touch what they achieved, even in the early 90’s they were the only one who could set tables within tables and it took others close to a decade to even get close. Azure, AWS and others never got ahead of Oracle, they merely reengineered what Oracle already figured out and there is more to come. 

You see the two stages are in a larger third stage and as I see it, Oracle has focussed on the data that is needed for DML and LLM settings, but they must know that actual AI requires more and it starts with two elements Verification and Validation. There two parts are the achilles heel for anyone making the statements that this is AI (which it is not) and no matter how much you train data sets, when Validation and verification are absent the GIGO law comes into play. It was uttered in the 60’s and means Garbage In, Garbage Out. Without Validation and Verification all data becomes part of the GIGO law. Most do not realise this, or they simply do not care, but Oracle figured this out long ago (A speculative thought) and we need to consider the Oracle might be trailing on some new technology, but they are ahead in many ways, more so than either Azure or AWS. And the largest settings we see at this point if that some are ‘gambling’ that Oracle messes up, but I think that is not the case. Oracle is hanging on and that is what matters. The data centers that are coming and that are build need to make money, but that is not the stage of Oracle, they got the equipment in, they got the software in and now as these centers start making money, Oracle gets their share and as such they are the facilitators of wealth and that is until there is an actual AI and as I see it, Oracle will be the only one who will set the premise of that and that is why Oracle will surpass all others. Even Google and IBM will seek the shores of Oracle. 

A stage that might take a while, but in all this, any training data centre will owe Oracle money (and a lot of it), so Oracle can play the long game, because in that stage only Oracle will come out on top. That is how is see the stage, the size a lot larger, the lights will put Oracle in the limelight and all others will remember why Oracle is the only one who is master of data storage technology and that is why I believe that the second is part of the real future of Oracle and whomever connects to Oracle. But in all this Oracle is the most essential data solution technology out there and when I saw the ‘negative’ settings around on December 2nd, I knew that it was doom speak of some for whatever reason they had. I knew that Oracle had a different future ahead of them, a much brighter one.

Have a great day, today was cooler, so I feel decently rested, but in these warm days before Christmas I rather miss the white cold of Sweden (or Canada). 

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The call of reality

That is what seems to be happening. The first one was a simple message that Oracle is doom headed according to Wall Street (I don’t agree with that), but it made me take another look and to make it simpler I will look at the articles chronologically. 

The first one was the Wall Street Journal (4 days ago), with ‘Oracle Was an AI Darling on Wall Street. Then Reality Set In’ (at https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-was-an-ai-darling-on-wall-street-then-reality-set-in-0d173758) with “Shares have lost gains from a September AI-fueled pop, and the company’s debt load is growing” with the added “Investors nervous about the scale of capital that technology companies are plowing into artificial-intelligence infrastructure rattled stocks this week. Oracle has been one of the companies hardest hit” but here is the larger setting. As I see it, these stocks are manipulated by others, whomever they are Hedge funds and their influencers and other parties calling for doom all whilst the setting of the AI bubble are exploiters by unknown gratifiers of self. I know that this sounds ominous and non specific, but there is no way most of us (including people with a much higher degree of economic knowledge than I will ever have) And the stage of bubble endearing is out there (especially in Wall Street) then 14 hours ago we get ‘Oracle (ORCL): Evaluating Valuation After $30B AI Cloud Win and Rising Credit Risk Concerns’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-orcl/oracle/news/oracle-orcl-evaluating-valuation-after-30b-ai-cloud-win-and/amp) where we see “Recent headlines have only amplified the spotlight on Oracle’s cloud ambitions, but the past few months have been rocky for its share price. After a surge tied to AI-driven optimism, Oracle’s 1-month share price return of -29.9% and a year-to-date gain of 19.7% tell the story: momentum has faded sharply in the near term. However, the 1-year total shareholder return still sits at 4.4% and its five-year total return remains a standout at nearly 269%. This combination of volatility and long-term outperformance reflects a market grappling with Oracle’s rapid strategic shift, balance sheet risks, and execution on new contracts.” I am not debating the numbers, but no one is looking to the technology behind this. As I see it places like Snowflake and Oracle have the best technology for these DML and LLM solutions (OK, there are a few more) and for now, whomever has the best technology will survive the bubble and whomever is betting on that AI bubble going their way needs Oracle at the very least and not in a weakened state, but that is merely my point of view. So last we get the Motley Fool a mere 7 hours ago giving us ‘Billionaire David Tepper Dumped Appaloosa’s Stake in Oracle and Is Piling Into a Sector That Wall Street Thinks Will Outperform’ (at https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/23/billionaire-david-tepper-dumped-appaloosas-stake-i/) we see “Billionaire David Tepper’s track record in the stock market is nothing short of remarkable. According to CNBC, the current owner of the Carolina Panthers pro football team launched his hedge fund Appaloosa Management in 1993 and generated annual returns of at least 25% for decades. Today, Tepper still runs Appaloosa, but it is now a family office, where he manages his own wealth.” Now we get the crazy stuff (this usually happens when I speculate) So this gives us a person like David Tepper who might like to exploit Oracle to make it seem more volatile and exploit a shortening of options to make himself (a lot) richer. And when clever people become self managing, they tend to listen to their darker nature. Now I could be all wrong, but when Wall Street is going after one of the most innovative and secure companies on the planet just to satisfy the greed of Wall Street, I get to become a little agitated. So could it all be that Oracle was drawn into the ‘fab’ and lost it? No, they clearly stated that there would be little return until 2028, a decent prognosis and with the proper settings of DML and LLM finding better and profitable ways by 2027 to find revenue making streams is a decent target to have and it is seemingly an achievable one. In the meantime IBM can figure out (evolve) their shallow circuits and start working on their trinary operating system. I have no idea where they are at present, but the idea of this getting ready for a 2040 release is not out of the question. In the meantime Oracle can fill the void for millions of corporations that already have data, warehouses and form settings. Another are plenty of other providers of data systems.

So when we are given “The tech company Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI), thanks to its specialized data centers that contain huge clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI.

In September, the company reported strong earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2026, along with blowout guidance. Remaining performance obligations increased 359% year over year to $455 billion, as it signed data center agreements with major hyperscalers, including OpenAI.

So whilst we see “Oracle is not one of the “Magnificent Seven,” but it has emerged as a strong beneficiary of artificial intelligence (AI)” we need to take a different look at this. Oracle was never a strong beneficiary of AI, it was a strong vendor with data technologies and AI is about data and in all of this, someone is ‘fitting’ Oracle into a stage that everyone just blatantly accepts without asking too many questions (example the Media). With the additional “to train large language models (LLMs) that power AI”, the hidden gem is in the second statement. AI and LLM are not the same, You only partially train real AI, this is different and those ‘magnificent seven’ want you to look away from that. So, when was the last time that you actually read that AI does not yet exist? That is the created bubble and players like Oracle are indifferent to this, unless you spike the game. It has stocks, it has options and someone is turning influencers to their own use of greed. And I object to this, Oracle has proven itself for decades, longer than players like Microsoft and Google. So when we see ‘Buying the sector that Wall Street is bullish on’ we see another hidden setting. The bullishness of Wall Street. Do you think they don’t know that AI is a non-existing setting? So why go after the one technology that will make data work? That setting is centre in all this and I object those who go after Oracle. So when you answer the call of reality consider who is giving you the AI setting and who is giving you the DML/LLM stage of a data solution that can help your company.

Have a great day we are seemingly all on Monday at present. 

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