Category Archives: Finance

February 21, 2022 · 04:59

The presumption is mine

There is a setting that does not agree with me and I have seen this before. Yet before I do that there are two words we need to look at. The first one is speculation, it means ‘the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain’, then there is presumption ‘the ground, reason, or evidence lending probability to a belief’. So one is a guess, the other is an educated guess. It is always stronger than a guess, but it is till lacking certain levels of evidence and that is important to know.

This all started as I was just unwinding of several (too many) hours playing Horizons 2: Forbidden West. I started that second play-through without completing the first. I did this with the first game. You see, Eloy needs power and skill and running after the main quest (something I erroneously did in the first game) will not do it. You need skill points and the game is large, really really large and when you start finding adversaries that are (on land) a lot bigger than you think you will be either running for your life or running for cover. Those who go meet the challenge head on are shredded. Yet I digress (or do I)?

The Guardian gives us (at https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/feb/20/credit-suisse-secrets-leak-unmasks-criminals-fraudsters-corrupt-politicians) where we see ‘Credit Suisse leak unmasks criminals, fraudsters and corrupt politicians’. There Is one problem. You see I do not think that this is happening, the Guardian was a happy tool just to get the exclusive. So as we are given:

Massive leak reveals secret owners of £80bn held in Swiss bank
Whistleblower leaked bank’s data to expose ‘immoral’ secrecy laws
Clients included human trafficker and billionaire who ordered girlfriend’s murder
Vatican-owned account used to spend €350m in allegedly fraudulent investment
Scandal-hit Credit Suisse rejects allegations it may be ‘rogue bank’

You see, my issue is that just like the ICIJ Pandora papers farce, this is an orchestration. I cannot say by who, we can point towards the NSA or a likeminded player (GCHQ), but the setting is larger. The US and EU are close to bankrupt, they play a nice tune, but the musical instrument has not been tuned for too long. A debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 and the EU is set to be in debt for about €10,973,338,444,376. They need to do something and going after some specific people is a first need. You cannot overhaul finances until certain ‘progressive entrepreneurs’ (aka white collar criminals) are dealt with ad the courts take too long, the problem is two fold. In the first the ICIJ was all about tantrums and BS, not much real useful info. We saw the accusations here and there with added ‘No actual laws were broken’ additions and it was a farce from beginning to end. Basic intelligence gathering acts were ignored, basic dashboarding was cast aside, and after 304 messages I know it was a wash. It was all about the power towards a ‘tax the rich’ flame which was happily drowned in whatever they used. Now we see the scolding of Credit Suisse and there are two parts here: 

  1. In the first they are accusations, so there will be a time gap, not a short one either. But it will be a message to ALL other banks that certain people have had enough.
  2. We see “billionaire who ordered girlfriend’s murder”, which might be fine, but which of the 2,755 billionaires was it? Well, the article gives us “his Lebanese pop star girlfriend”, so it might not be that hard. 

The issue is not the article perse, it is “A massive leak from one of the world’s biggest private banks, Credit Suisse, has exposed the hidden wealth of clients involved in torture, drug trafficking, money laundering, corruption and other serious crimes. Details of accounts linked to 30,000 Credit Suisse clients all over the world are contained in the leak, which unmasks the beneficiaries of more than 100bn Swiss francs (£80bn) held in one of Switzerland’s best-known financial institutions.”

Let me take you through the numbers. There is not one employee that has access to the 30,000 accounts, so it is the CEO, CTO, CFO, or something like that. Do you think that they are the whistleblower? Nope? Neither do I! Then there is the IT, but Credit Suisse is global, so it we get back to the CTO. One IT person does not have this kind of access without getting caught. This level of data has all kinds of security. It needs to have it. Then there is the inside part Who is the drug trafficker? Who is the corrupt? Who is the torturer? This is not set into an account, it requires data aggregation, something a way to large computer can do but leakers tend to now have that access, without getting caught. And the Swiss laws are strict, massively strict so there is doubt on the stage of “held in one of Switzerland’s best-known financial institutions” as well. The levels of security and insight cannot come from a leaker, just like with the Pandora papers. I stated that from the beginning. This was a state operator and the NSA is the most likely culprit. The USA is in too much debt, it needs to release pressures and they are out of options. So when the ICIJ strikes out, we get this. 

I have worked in data for decades and I have had less then 5 instances where I had national levels of data access, but I was monitored all the time (as one does), one protects the data it has. And I was able to do my job and aid the people involved. In an age of data being currency, do you think this is some leak? An £80bn leak no less? Then there is “leak reveals secret owners of £80bn held in Swiss bank”, a bullshit header if ever there was one. You see Swiss bank laws are strict, very strict and have been for a very long time but someone wants access and a leak would never reveal that. Such information can only come from state players, players with aggregated data on a very large level and there is every indication that the dat did not come from the bank but from other sources who transferred the funds from one to the other. The setting of ‘Credit Suisse leak unmasks criminals, fraudsters and corrupt politicians’ debunked in mere minutes. It took me at least 4 times longer to type this all. And when we get one example where the article is so ‘huge’, we get “the leaked Credit Suisse data shows his accounts were left open until at least well into the last decade. At one point after he left Siemens, one account was worth 54m CHF (£24m). Seidel’s lawyer declined to say whether the accounts were his. He said his client had addressed all outstanding matters relating to his bribery offences and wished to move on with his life”, as well as “The lawyer did not respond to repeated invitations to explain the source of the 54m CHF. Siemens said it did not know about the money and that its review of its own cashflows shed no light on the account”, so all that space on what amounts to 0.03% of the entire amount. Just like the ICIJ, shortsighted and a waste of time. So we get repeated invitations to explain 0.03% of what is such a massive leak? Is anyone waking up yet? 

This is about something else, it always was and in this the Guardian is allowing themselves (yet again) to be the tool in all this. It is not rocket science and it took me minutes to debunk a setting that is intentionally being misrepresented by 5 writers, I did this all alone in less then an hour (including the writing), so what fairy tale will the newspapers (via a state actor) serve up next?

Charging in full frontal will get some state players shredded, so they decided on the Eloy solution, illuminate from the tall grass and stay out of sight, plenty of players eager to take that limelight.

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February 15, 2022 · 22:14

What did I say?

I have said it again and again. The US is in several dangers, financial being a large one and Al Jazeera gives us ‘UAE arms deals: What weapons is the Gulf state buying and why?’ (at https://aje.io/pn5gad), it is the second line that should concern people. The mention of “purchases from South Korea, Israel and France”, Israel makes sense, its Iron Dome is pretty essential in any defence setting, yet the US is not one of the mentioned, so no Northrop Grumman or Raytheon. It is South Korea and France. France needs the sales, but in the end, the US is overlooked (again). There is a setting that the US could still set itself on and that is to grow UAE defence growing, Manufacturing plants in the UAE (or Saudi Arabia), but there is no real information on where the GAMI is going at present, so when we see “has one of the most potent air defence systems in the region, relying mainly on American-made weapons like the older HAWK missile, the more capable Patriot PAC-3 missile and the THAAD air defence system which was used for the first time in combat this year, destroying a Houthi missile” we also see that out with the old and the new is increasingly likely not going to be American, so when one changes, where does that leave the sales pipeline of the US? When one falls over, where do the others go? Consider that the HAWK was not the latest solution when I left the army 20 years ago, so why are the American salespeople not all over that wreck from day one? It should have been a clear path for the US to cement a better stage with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and optionally Qatar. If they can keep one of these four it is close to a miracle. And at the edge is China, ready to sell whatever they can and when I initially stated that the US could lose hundreds of billions everyone was stating that I was nuts, that I was demented and I didn’t know what I was talking about. Over the last months we have seen activities that show that the US is in a sliding place and now Al Jazeera adds to that. People might laugh at the size of the UAE, but with the UAE the options for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt will also grow and neglecting any options is folly and it could cost the American industry a lot more than anyone bargained for. It might be merely my view, but so far I have been spot on, something the others will yet have to prove. 

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February 14, 2022 · 03:41

The arbitrary Echidna

Yes, we all have arbitrary moments, this is not mine. Yet something woke up in me when Reuters gave me ‘Google’s advertising tech targeted in European publishers’ complaint’ (at https://www.reuters.com/technology/googles-advertising-tech-targeted-european-publishers-complaint-2022-02-11/) and I took a look. So there were a few issues and the part of “alleging Google has an adtech stranglehold over press publishers” is merely window dressing. So as I went to a few of these sites, I saw German, Swedish and no English. Now, this is not a stranglehold for me, so I dug deeper. And I looked in a few publications, seeing that there advertisements were a mess, I could not even apply for advertisements in Die Welt, Das Bild and so on. I did not check them all, but the laughable setting is that they seemingly have no idea what they are doing. See the image below

I go to www.google.com and this is the first thing I get in the left lower corner. It was not rocket science, it was precise and clear. And the Advertising gives you:

Simple, precise and direct, NONE of the publications I saw offered anything like that. I got to a page on advertising with Das Bild (I needed Google search to find it), these players are hopelessly lost, they are conceited and running after the facts. Advertising should be a main option at the bottom of Das Bild and Die Welt and it is not there (or better stated, I never found it). The most basic of settings and two of Germans largest circulations are lost beyond hope. So as I personally see it, it is not ‘Google has an adtech stranglehold over press publishers’, as I personally see it, it has become ‘press publishers are hopelessly outdated in the digital environment’, the ‘information’ page I found had one mention of pricing and no relevant actual pricing information. How is that possible in this day and age? Google Ads gives you options, Price per click, price per impression, and many other options and you can select your preference and set how much you are willing to pay. And the Google system is unsurpassed. You might bid $20, yet in the end you ONLY pay one cent more than the previous bid winner. So if we see the following bids:

BidCharged
1$ 20$ 0.54
2$ 5$ 0.53
3$ 3$ 0.52
4$ 1$ 0.51
5$ 0.50$ 0.50

Before Google the advertiser was NEVER given this and it changed the game, the ‘exploiters’ suddenly lost all traffic, they lost their customers and they lost their revenue. This is not a stranglehold, this is giving the customer proper treatment, perhaps EPC Chairman Christian Van Thillo might take notice of that. If we publicly set the advertisement prices over the last six years from Axel Springer, News UK, Conde Nast, Bonnier News and Editorial Prensa Iberica, what will we see then? Even now I could not find precise advertising prices in Die Welt and Das Bild. I get a presentation who they work with, but a consumer wants to know what it will cost them. So when you all go cry at the desk of the European Commission consider that the consumer and the consumer advertiser is given a clear picture and a clear understanding and the stage of what comes next. In addition, when we take “When publishers choose to use our advertising services, they keep the majority of revenue and every year we pay out billions of dollars directly to the publishing partners in our ad network” and we set that against “Google has achieved end-to-end control of the ad tech value chain, boasting market shares as high as 90-100% in segments of the ad tech chain” it is because Google offered and showed value for money from the very beginning, something most advertising agencies have never done. In addition, Google Ads has driven technology that made the advertisers more clever in the way they advertised, something others have never done. 

And in all this, when we see the EPC make claims like: ‘Freedom to earn advertising revenue’ and ‘Freedom to innovate’ whilst two of the partner clearly are lost on innovation, they might embrace earn advertising revenue, but without innovation it becomes meaningless and in that, the advertisers that require visibility see that Google Ads delivers whilst keeping cost down, optionally setting a stage to a new path that is cheaper for the advertiser, so how did the EPC approach that? This is not stranglehold, this is as I see it the path of exploitation and many advertisers have had enough of that and they were willing to try Google Ads and those who did remained in Google Ads, clearly the EPC needs to look up the word innovation, let me help them out: “the introduction of something new”, so where is that innovation in Die Welt and Das Bild? 

Seems that it is another chihuahua crying that they no longer matter, a waste of my time as I see it, not the people that could ever qualify for my 5G solution, that is (as I personally see it) true advertising power, in the hands of the retailer. 

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February 11, 2022 · 21:35

The headers of maximum data

Every now and then I keep my eyes on Zendesk. There is a reason for that, my origins are technical support and customer support. I am proud of my past, I went from nothing to a decent high ranking technical support person and I always fought for EVERY customer. I did not care whether they had one single license, or if it was an important customer who owned a site license (which drove sales insane). All were equal in my eyes and all deserved and received 100%. So when the article (at https://www.reuters.com/business/zendesk-rejects-16-bln-offer-private-equity-consortium-2022-02-10/) passed me by, I took notice. You see, the header is one ‘Zendesk rejects $16 bln offer from private equity consortium’, I remember that it started not too long ago (2007) and it grew fast. Well there is a reason for that. No matter whether you look at SCOPUS, SIEBEL or another CRM solution, they claim that they have a technical support part, it was meagre and all based on a sales foundation, which makes it (in my eyes) not a technical support solution. So beyond Zendesk there was nothing. It is a good place to be in, it allows for the growth they had. Yet the article sat with me and not entirely in a good way. The first one “facing calls from activist investors, including hedge fund Jana Partners LLC, to abandon its proposed acquisition of SurveyMonkey parent Momentive Global Inc , which it agreed in October”, is regarded (by me) as moronic, you are about to see why. The second one “Thoma Bravo had made a takeover approach to Zendesk” with the added “Thoma Bravo and Jana declined to comment.” As I personally see it, it is not about Zendesk, it is about the amount of data they wield via 17 offices in a lot more countries than 17. They are after the data. A Company with an operating income of $175,000,000 is not valued as a $16,000,000,000 on the value of its SAAS operations, that has to be about the data and that will be a scary thought. When my technical support skills, given to the customers will be used to bleed them dry of intelligence. It is a scary thought. Then there is the added. You see Marketwatch gives us “Jana Partners LLC, which is opposed to Zendesk’s deal to buy Momentive Global Inc., is planning a proxy fight, according to the WSJ report. Momentive shares were down 3%” me thinks that the acquisition implies that too many eyes will be on Zendesk for some time to come and that does not sit well with Barry Rosenstein. So for me the response becomes: “A reactive and impulsive decision? My ass!” I think that Rosenstein had similar plans as the other (unnamed) player and it seems that these management firms have data currency on the mind and Zendesk in its near unique position is one juicy steak (with sauce). So no matter how unique the placement is, as long as it has data these Investment management companies will see the long term gains and there is a larger stake (or is that steak) in play, it is not Schrems 2 (discusses yesterday), it is all those nations that lack that level of protection and it seems that these Investment management companies have an additional customer that needs no mention, no written agreement and that makes for a lot of coins and they will hand it over eagerly, especially in light of the escalation we globally see, in that setting data is everything. To add to that, I have to admit that there is another setting, which I still cannot see, it is because I know next to nothing on Orlando Bravo, the man behind Thoma Bravo. It might be that he is on the same track sharing the risk and revenue with Rosenstein, yet they are lonesome hunters (optionally predators), but because Orlando the software esquire also has Proofpoint, Sophos, Kofax, Motus and Aptus there is every consideration that Orlando Bravo has other considerations including solidifying fleet contracts to a larger and more complete approach and having a more substantial SAAS umbrella. So he is the larger unknown and there is a rather large expansion option for Zendesk, so I am not certain, but I feel certain that Orlando might have been better off without Barry, but that is just an initial vibe I am getting and that vibe is not evidence based.

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February 10, 2022 · 02:04

Oh darn, I am missing out

Now to be honest, there was never much of a chance to begin with, but who would not want 3.75% commission, especially as it is based on a number amounting to billions. And as I said in several articles, the US is about to lose out on these billions. And guess what, after all the name calling I was handed (some are blindly accepting US stories that it will blow over), the setting given to us by Asia Times is ‘Saudi Arabia has a plan to buy fewer US weapons’, a mere 5 hours ago. It is supported by “Kingdom has launched an inward-looking strategy to develop its own defence industries with the help of foreign partners” (at https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/saudi-arabia-has-a-plan-to-buy-fewer-us-weapons/) in all honesty, this was always going to happen, but that industrial move was initially going to be US settings, now there is every chance that China gets to do this and that would imply losses into the hundreds of billions. The article gives us “Saudi Arabia has signed several Memoranda of Understanding between GAMI, the Ministry of Investment and UK-based Cranfield University. GAMI also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Italian defence manufacturer Leonardo to create and develop investment opportunities in education and train specialised military industries”, yet I believe that this setting is one that China relishes, as such whatever the west is thinking, be careful what you do next. You se, Cranfield themselves give us “A number of Cranfield graduates also hold leading roles in Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) including the Head and the Chief Design Engineer of the China Gas Turbine division”, Is this where it will go? No, there is no data supporting this, it is based on the stages that we have seen all over the news and if Saudi Arabia decides to get their hardware from the BAE, I would be happy (as a Commonwealthian), I would still be a little sour missing out on the 3.75%, but that was never a given in the first place. And all this is not really news, the internal defence growth was at least 2 years old and it makes sense for Saudi Arabia to have its own military manufacturing complex. So we aren’t seeing anything news, other than the Italian involvement here. So whilst some will stare at “Cranfield is ranked 45th in the world for Aero, Mech, Manufacturing by QS rankings.” It seems to me that Saudi Arabia is making headway in this stage and that means that the US is in deeper trouble than it realises. The UK could avoid some issues if they can get a handles on the CAAT Tea grannies. 

You see, over the next decade all nations need whatever revenue they can get and the UK is not out of the race yet, the question becomes what can they offer over China and that is a hard nut to crack, China has all kinds of advantages after the UK and US dropped the ball, and they did so several times in a row, so they are catering to a client (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) that has had enough of the games that some governments have been playing (as well as catering to Iran at the same time). 

Saudi Arabia was always intent on growing its own defence solutions and I believe about 3-4 years ago mention of 50% by 2030 was stated and they are on track to do that. I believe that GAMI (General Authority for Military Industries) is roaring to get things going. And it seems that they are very serious to get it going, so it is up to the UK to find solutions that help them and not China. Personally I believe that the UK will have to sweeten the deal by a lot, but that is personal speculation. I do still believe that China has the inside track here, but that too is speculation on other sources, sources I never was able to vet. 

And there is a second path here, I do believe that the longer term planning for Saudi Arabia implies that Egypt is a growing connection here, so if China wins that path, they could optionally have the advantage with Egypt and its $2,000,000,000 for 2022/2023. A setting that should cause concern in Washington. You see, if China takes over the $ 1.3 billion annually support from the US, the factional setting for the Middle East will change pretty dramatically. Even as the US is seemingly out with the Saudi Government, it is merely that seemingly. The US has a massive disadvantage especially when they were all huffy and puffy on Saudi Arabia, reality bites and that presentable stage will have to be stopped at the earliest convenience (not for me, I am happy if the BAE takes over), yet these stages (also the one the CAAT forced) are all stages that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia took notice of and China will be happy to show that with every presentation they bring. So China might have the lead, but the UK is still in the race and that is good for the UK. The Asia Times is not bringing too much news, yet the fact that it is on the front of the media is always an optional sign that more will be coming soon enough. 

Time will tell, and I reckon it is sooner rather than later.

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February 7, 2022 · 08:10

The street we know

It is a different setting, we tend to relate to the streets we tend to know. Any technology is set upon a familiar setting. The benefit is that we know where we are and as such we get to where we think we want to go faster. The negative part is that this is a problem when it is true innovation, we cannot continue an iterative line if we want true innovation. 

So when I saw ‘Saudi Arabia announces $6.4 billion investments in future tech’ (at https://www.reuters.com/markets/funds/saudi-arabia-announces-64-billion-investments-future-tech-2022-02-01/) I took notice last week but merely that, it was to be expected. So when I looked at it again this morning, I noticed “include a $2 billion joint venture between eWTP Arabia Capital, a fund backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Alibaba, and China’s J&T Express Group, minister Abdullah Alswaha said”, I had overlooked that initially. But it makes sense, as ties with China grow, the Chinese IT sector would come in. It spells bad news for the US, for Amazon in particular. The options that were there are shrinking, they are not gone, but China is now in position to take the cream from the barrel and become the new fat cats. My IP still has options, but it might not go the highway I had hoped for (we all have that), still I do have the innovation advantage and when others fail I can step in. 

There is another side, a side that Amazon had in hands, you see with Neom and Vision2030 Amazon had a larger option if there was a data centre in Saudi Arabia, not a simple online store, but a real data centre, they would need one for a few reasons and even as the media gives us “showing its continued business interests there despite a public dispute between Riyadh and the company’s chief executive, Jeff Bezos”, we can see the hindrance there, we can see that there are issues (I am ignoring the FTI Consulting issues here), but in a larger stake worth billions, the need to find solutions are clear for Amazon. They could walk away and leave it all to AliBaba and the J&T Express Group yet who profits then? Not Amazon, not the US and it is another spark that goes into the direction of China. It is a problem for the US for two reasons. The first one is simple revenue, the US desperately needs that. The second one might not be that clear. You see Saudi Arabia has at present a full fletched 5G network, so those there can do all kinds of prototyping to a much larger extend and see the impact of congestion in a complete 5G network. You see at present we see assumptions via 4G LTE and other settings, this implies that other issues will not be captured when things go wrong. And with all the transgressions we have seen in 2020 and 2021 these systems need proper adjustment. Saudi Arabia has the advantage and now it seems so does China (outside of China), another step not to the advantage of the west (as expressions go), so how many steps do we all need to fall behind before people take this disadvantaged setting seriously?

Even now, the aftermath of Davos will be in favour of both Saudi Arabia and China. Al Jazeera reported “Observers see the high-profile conference as a way for the kingdom to redeem itself in the eyes of US President Joe Biden and the wider international community”, yet my question becomes ‘Why?’ You see, the EU and the US have shown themselves to be unreliable, all setting concepts to presentation in stead of evidence. Now that China is showing themselves to be a much larger player and a willing player could spell a massive loss in revenue. 3 billion here, 6.4 billion there, and several more billions left, right and hither. How much longer until we face the direction that we are losing out? Now this would not be a problem when we have alternatives, but there aren’t that many are there? And consider that one side gives us ‘Deficit shrinks in the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency’ (around $500,000,000,000 less loss), it is a joke when you consider that the deficit is still $2,500,000,000,000,000. And less than a months later the people are given ‘Biden’s $1.7trn social policy will send deficit soaring’, it is another setting of managing bd news and on top of that they lose revenue option after revenue option. So how does that look? The US debt has now surpassed $30,000,000,000,000,000, you have that kind of money? I do not and none of the others have it and an additional problem for the US is that the EU wants to dig into the Saudi revenue pie as well, yet at present China has the upper hand. A setting we ignore because we are lulled to sleep, and that time is gone, when the US debt comes crashing down the EU will join a massive loss and no amount of promise will aid anyone at that point. All because certain players underestimated the impact of innovation and innovation like some are marketing it is not innovation, it is a presentation nothing more. We all tend to keep to the street we know but when that street is on fire, will you merely stop the fire or see what resources are available in the next street? 

China did just that and now we see the fallout of political stupidity. Oh, and when Iran does not come across with promises that they made to some middle man, when the unfortunate adjustments come, the middle man will not care, he got his oil barrel bonus, he is just fine, but those who were behind it will get to say ‘Oops!’ Just as I expected them to do. At that point we will see another advantage to China, good going! And what happens in May/June when Iran has enough nuclear materials? What then?

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February 6, 2022 · 20:38

Time on my side

Yes, this is what it seems to be and there are no rolling stones going my way. I saw the news yesterday, but I was busy with a few other parts. So when I recall ‘Early Christmas for China’ on January 10th and ‘Just like the moon’ on September 20th 2020 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/20/just-like-the-moon/), there were even a few more mentions before that and people called me nuts, I was talking like Mr. Serious Hit. And now we see the continuation in the Business Insider with ‘As Biden struggles to define his relationship with Saudi Arabia, China is stepping in to fill the gap’ (at https://www.businessinsider.com/china-saudi-strengthen-ties-biden-struggles-define-mbs-relationship-2022-1). A stage that was out in the open, a setting where China is now ready to set the caper to take billions from the EU and the US and direct it towards China. I stated it before and now we see the mention of “In recent months, China and Saudi Arabia have grown closer, establishing new fronts of cooperation in defence and trade.” A setting that could cost the two dumb parties (EU and US) hundreds of billions. So where do you think they will get the heating relief for? How does it look when the BAE has a good system but these tea grannies protesting on behalf of the CAAT are now the cause of prolonging the UK hardship for another decade, well done ladies! A perfect setting where you had no clue what you were talking about in the first place. 

So whilst we take consideration of “Saudi Arabia has long been China’s biggest trade partner in the Middle East — Saudi goods accounted for 17% of Chinese imports in 2021”, yet that is not really the real deal, it is when Saudi Arabia extends towards 25% of Chinese imports to include defence materials and optionally consultation you will see a much larger change. You see, The UAE will be invited for a special tour, Oman and Bahrain perhaps too and someone from Egypt. That is the moment when the EU and the US needs to fear the impact of reduced revenue as well as losing a political ground. You see these people were listening because the US was bringing them stuff, when that falls away the political ground changes. It is the application of money talks, bullshit walks. Political people will call it ‘A complex situation that is being monitored and looked at in conjunction with the state department and others to see what we can achieve’, but the people around that setting will have their own version of applied stupidity in politics. It was always simple. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia needs to defend itself from future attacks from Iran and the politicians in Eu and US have done EVERYTHING to trivialise that and now another step (by China) is being made to approach Saudi Arabia. That implies that the ball is no longer on the US side, it is on the other side and is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia decides to lob it towards China the US will lose more than 3-5 years of decent revenue. They will have to sell to nations that do not have the cash, their credit cards are strapped as such larger discounts will be required. The UK is in no better setting, they will lose less, but they stand to lose a massive amount of cash that was meant for the British coffers that pays for all that can soon no longer be afforded. 

So whilst Chinese President Xi Jinping sings to the record of the Rolling Stones singing ‘Time is on my side’ in the halls of the Presidential Palace in Nanjing, the people who hear it will realise that the US is now in a stage where the debt surpassed $30,000,000,000,000 and the incoming revenue is decreasing. The EU might not be in such a setting yet, but both the EU and UK will see that life will become harder soon enough. All because alleged individuals decided to dance to the needs of Iran, well played, stupid, but well done. Perhaps you will get a Harrods Christmas hamper from China. 

Oh and the fact that I saw this months ago was not future prediction, it was the simple approach towards logic; there were always two alternatives and China got there faster and more convincingly.

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February 2, 2022 · 13:27

Questioning presentations

I am not without faults. I have a decently evolved mind, but I rely on evidence to form an opinion, to blatantly go on faith has burned me too many times. So when the Associated Press gave us (at https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-sports-business-2020-tokyo-olympics-foreign-policy-817f522caca44af57a35e0e479a2fdc3) the story ‘FBI chief: Threat from China ‘more brazen’ than ever before’ I had questions, and I needed a little time to mull things over. I was not taking the word of a chief, not even the FBI one. You see the issues started in 2018 when the accusations against Huawei started, we saw the accusations yet no one was even given any evidence. The accusation against Huawei remained and contract after contract went to people who sat on their hands in the 5G race. It went so far that in 2019 Statista reported that Saudi Arabia (with a fully deployed Huawei 5G network) was 725% faster than anything the US has, it ended up the fastest 5G before South Korea, before Australia and before Canada. The Saudi network has twice the speed Canada has and well over 350% faster than Germany. That is the reality people face. 

So I had questions. And the article gave me “When we tally up what we see in our investigations, over 2,000 of which are focused on the Chinese government trying to steal our information or technology, there’s just no country that presents a broader threat to our ideas, innovation, and economic security than China”, you see, there is no doubt that this happens. There is no doubt that technology firms, that some companies take short cuts, but that would still be a large reach from hacker to ‘Chinese government’, and I think that FBI Director Christopher Wray needs to present evidence. We did not get it with the Huawei debacle and the less evidence we see presented, the less government credibility remains. 

“The harm from the Chinese government’s economic espionage isn’t just that its companies pull ahead based on illegally gotten technology. While they pull ahead, they push our companies and workers behind,” Wray said. “That harm — company failures, job losses — has been building for a decade to the crush we feel today. It’s harm felt across the country, by workers in a whole range of industries.” Is equally a debatable statement. US fat cats got rich and lazy, they relied on their bonuses to keep them supplied in viagra and all the women they could bed, all the shallow extra’s they could afford (aka cars, yachts). If you look at the setting, the larger steps (in the US) are clearly made by people like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. In an age where the US claims to have all this innovation, I have well over a dozen IP, Elon Musk came up with an evolutionary mobile concept, a new approach to energy winning and a few things more, where are the other innovators? Where are the other tall orders? Microsoft spins technology via marketing. In this setting IBM remains with true new technology in Quantum computing, the rest presents on something that comes, relies on their AI, something that does NOT even exist. So where exactly are these 2,000 investigations going?

The US is facing a decade of crush to stupidity, short sightedness and laziness. In that equation I should not even make a dent, but here I am with a dozen of IP that the US does not have and some of that was discussed in previous articles so feel free to not believe me, but I made mention of the IP, including the concept of printable displays. Something even Sony does not have. 

When we are given “The Justice Department in 2014 indicted five Chinese military officers on charges of hacking into major American corporations. One year later, the U.S. and China announced a deal at the White House to not steal each other’s intellectual property or trade secrets for commercial gain”, we see an example 8 years old, I do not doubt that, but I wonder what the Chinese government has stolen exactly. It cannot be 5G, what they have is massively superior than what the others have and even now Nokia is allegedly selling off parts to keep their R&D going. There is no doubt that there are issues and that there are hackers. Yet in all this consider that Google acquired YouTube and became a massive powerhouse after 2006, in 2016 China launched TikTok (Douyin) and ByteDance Ltd. a Chinese firm became known in 2020 as the fastest growing brand, and in 2021 as the most popular website, a new powerhouse that is nowhere near the size of YouTube but a clear contender. Innovation at strength, I warned people again and again that innovation trumps iteration and this is what happens when you sit down and relax. So I leave it to FBI Director Christopher Wray to present us all evidence and clear evidence that clearly divides Russian and Chinese hackers and either clearly connect them to their government, or separated them from their government. Yet I believe that Christopher Robin needs to take a larger look at his 100 acres accusation meadow and give the real goods. Yes the US is in a downward spiral, but the US did this to themselves. When the fat-cats go lazy, the hungry ones get the cream of the forest. Huawei showed you all and so did TikTok. I believe that there is a larger level of industrial espionage and there are plenty of fingers to point at real dangers, yet at no point do we see evidence that all of it is government driven. So far the REvil gang has seen arrests by the FSB, others have been arrested and at present no evidence is clearly shown to see government connections. I am not stating that these connections do not exist, I say that evidence has not been shown, and we get too many accusations and too little evidence all whilst at present too little innovation comes from the US. To state that only three parties (Bezos, Musk and IBM) is not entirely correct, but they do get all the media, so when the media gives us Microsoft iteration after iterations making claims of their most powerful console in the world and the weakest of all consoles (Nintendo Switch) passes them by with the greatest of ease. It is not because of “company failures, job losses — has been building for a decade to the crush we feel today”, it is because what marketing spins and the reality of what the people want is not the same. And that is a hard lesson to learn and the US is seemingly unable to learn it.

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January 30, 2022 · 17:56

The Ronald McDonald factor

This is a hard article to write. It is not about my IP, it is not about gaming, it is in part about me and you show me a person who will honestly look into a mirror and describe what they see with happiness, and I will introduce you to a likely liar.

To start, I have for the longest time been a Republican, I believe in the Republican values, I believe that Make America Great Again is a nationalist right for Americans. National values are important, national values are a nations right and it tends to drive national interests. Take any nation. Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Canada, USA, France they all have nationalists, people devoted to THEIR nation. It is not a shame, it is not negative, it merely is, so when I saw the hats with MAGA, I merely shrugged, it was bound to happen. What was not bound to happen is that a clown like Donald Trump would set the stage to ridiculous values, fake values and hidden personal needs. So when you today ABC ‘MAGA’s ‘Bonnie and Clyde’ have turned on Donald Trump and are now spilling his secrets’, Another media with ‘Donald Trump says he would pardon Jan 6 rioters if he runs and wins’, as well as the most despicable one ‘Donald Trump should not lead the country again, says the Republican leader of the National Governors Association’

So, why despicable?
You see, when we see the headlines, the inactions against Trump and his machine and more over, what I personally see as Republican rats, coming out of the woodwork, I see a party that is shaken to it foundations, destroyed by the Trump quake and they are all seeking shelter anyway they can. Not one of them gave light and support to Liz Cheney who was right all along. In her corner is Mitt Romney and that is pretty much it. How can I remain in support of a party that disgraces itself, that destroys its own values. With at present seemingly only Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney as honourable Republicans. The least said about Mitch McConnell the better, he stayed on the Trump side for too long, now that he is showing to stop (to some degree) Trump for office (again) he is showing himself to be disingenuous at the least and a turncoat in the nominal setting, and since that turncoat Benedict, who would have thought that to be a good idea. Which takes me to the article ‘Donald Trump should not lead the country again, says the Republican leader of the National Governors Association’ (at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/donald-trump-shouldnt-run-in-2024-national-governors-asa-hutchinson-2022-1) which aired hours ago and whilst Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson gives us all kinds of settings that is pretty much highlighted with “And, you know, the Republican Party has many different voices,” Hutchinson said. “And it’s important in this time to have those voices and they should be concentrating on this election cycle” this political entity was very clear in not giving the people that Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney were correct from the start and that lack of recognition needs to be seen as a setting with a sinking ship and one rat thinking he has a chance to get to the big piece of cheese, all whilst his chances were better with a smaller chunk when he acknowledged that Romney and Cheney should get the largest chunk of cheese. Even now, I see all signs that Fox is using Cheney and Romney in the smallest setting, all whilst these two deserve the limelight. It seems that Fox has a side which hopes that Trump pulls of a trick, and these people are now relying on tricks, they are willing to depend on tricks to set the democratic agenda of the United States. So what does that tell you? How can anyone have faith in the Republican setting when its party has close to two honourable players? If I were a betting man, I would hope that the Republican ticket would be Cheney-Romney, with that ticket the Republican Party could clean out its isles with wannabe’s and incompetent politicians and put them to the sewage they are entitled. And this is a Republican minded person speaking.

The indirect factors

As I stated there is no direct need for my IP, yet indirectly it matters to me how the US does its business, because no matter how it plays out, the larger tech players will soon have no option but to register all new IP in the Commonwealth and/or EU. As I feel the setting change, the political players are enabling a massive brain drain, the January 6th events not properly dealt with are a first, but the larger setting is the political upheaval that tech and engineering firms face and in that uncertainty all their new IP will be a decent lot safer in Commonwealth/EU settings. When that happens the US stands to lose a power value no less than 10% and optionally up to 31%, it is a wide field but in one setting the IP value of pharmaceuticals in Ireland went from €37.5B in 2018 to €105B in 2019. I was unable to see the growth in 2020, but that value has gone up and it will go up again in 2021. So consider that ONE industry has cause a brain drain towards Ireland (EU) of well over 300% over three years, I will let you ponder who lost out on those coins. There is no clear shift in the papers, but I feel certain that the US lost a lot and the tech firms are starting to do the same thing. So when I stated (well over 6 months ago) that I preferred to see my IP in Commonwealth hands, I did know what I was talking about and happy for me both Google and Amazon have global filings, so I am still up for that race and with two new IP’s coming (I will write about them soon to some degree) I feel certain that my time is still optionally to come (wishful thinking).

Yet if any political players are crying like little chihuahuas show them that they had this coming. They accepted Ronald McDonald as a president, the people will seek their fun in places where politics are not set to a clown but to a serious person and that is the view of a simple Republican, not a democrat and not an independent.

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January 29, 2022 · 16:07

Sadness in my heart

Today I feel sadness in my heart, but not for any reason you would expect. The Dutch NOS informed us (at https://nos.nl/l/2414328) that the Haunted castle will go. The Haunted Castle is one of the oldest attractions in the Dutch Efteling. I remember seeing it in its first year in 1978, it was my third visit. I would visit the Efteling about 6 times more but every time I wanted to see the haunted castle, it felt magical and there was so much to see. So when I see that future generations will be denied this, I merely feel sadness. I get it, it is almost 45 years old, but it kept millions of people staring at the floating violin, the running couple, the hanging man and so many other parts engaged, its departure is saddening. 

In part I hope that the access route to the haunted castle will remain as the entrance for what comes next, but that is merely my look on the matter. 

I decided not to include photo’s of the attraction, not that I am against it, but because the image would never show what it offers, even a YouTube film will mis parts of the show, it was that amazing. Yet the Efteling had so much more. In 1955 the Belgium Queen Fabiola wrote stories one of the was the Indian Waterlilies. It rook some time, but in 1966 the Efteling pulled it off and gave light to the Indian Waterlilies. I saw it in its second year, I must have been 5. I remember the overwhelming atmosphere it held and over time I would see it again, now as an engineer I would see through the show, but weirdly enough it would not lessen the show, because it was not a trick , it was a show and that made all the difference. The Efteling would bring more over time, the Pagoda, the Python, The Halve Maen (the half moon, a galleon on a swing), the enchanted forest, Villa Volta. So many amazing feats, and always there was the Haunted Castle. This summer will be its last time, so see it if you can. We can go on an awards and so on, but the truth is that the Efteling is a journey in itself. You should take the time to treat yourself at t’ Poffertje (The Little Dutch Pancake). It gives the vibes of the old Pancake house that I visited in the 60’s and 70’s. I still have an Anton Pieck Replica of that, the image takes me back to those years and the smells surround me. Only the Efteling got me there before and over time too much of this will vanish. There is the awful realisation that M2 must exceed €x for the event to survive. We have become a much larger accountant than history would be pleased with and too many parts will vanish over time. Not merely in The Efteling, but any themed Parc will go through these motions. I reckon that the same will be seen in Disney and Universal. I never saw the Jaws exhibition with my own eyes and perhaps I will have time to see the Harry Potter places, yet I am not holding my breath on that. For now I feel the sadness of the Haunted Castle leaving us and I cannot say goodbye, I last saw it in 2004, 17 years ago. The things we are denied because M2 did not exceed €x is just sad, it really is, as economy decides on what is worthy the numbers deny another path, that of the people it inspires on art and new ideas? A question most of us (including me) cannot answer, only historians have that ability, and even then it is limited and redacted to a hypothesis. 

Sadness over what once was and soon will be no more. Consider what you will miss out on and if you have that ability, do something about it whilst you can. Just an idea to consider.

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