Tag Archives: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group

July 24, 2025 · 05:35

An interesting morning

This morning I was given an article by Amway media (at https://amwaj.media/en/article/why-china-cannot-sway-saudi-arabia-to-shift-away-from-us-weapons). It took me a second to let it sink in, but as it did, it took me back to May 27, 2023 when I wrote ‘Ding Ding, the premise is set’ where I gave my view on the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group and the dangers to America as it would be able to get the Government of Saudi Arabia as a new customer. The story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/27/ding-ding-the-premise-is-set/) was not the first one that I had set and here (two years later) we get the setting “if Chinese weapons are more or less on par with their western equivalent, why does Riyadh still spend billions on American weapons?” Was that really the case? I believe it was that Saudi Arabia wanted to play nice so that they could get the F-35 stealth fighter, it is beyond me that America took that card out of the deck and as I stated that the Chengdu version could be ready to get China as a customer for it would have been a massive hit for America, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon. It would have been a massive coup for China and the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. So as I read “When Pakistan’s Chinese-made J-10 fighters reportedly downed India’s advanced French-made Rafales during dogfights in May—including one confirmed by US officials—it marked a turning point: Chinese weapons had proven themselves against western counterparts in real-life combat” I actually read a simpler setting. Are the sales teams of the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and optionally Governmental China sales teams not hacking it? 

I am not a pilot (not even an aviator) as such I lack the knowledge to set the premise. But I would have given the setting of training one squadron of Saudi pilots in China on the grounds of Chengdu a very first priority. Getting pilots in the mindset of China would have been a first. Was that done? As such the quote ““One of the reasons why Saudi Arabia prefers western weapons over its Chinese equivalent is because Chinese weapons have not seen combat in recent years,” a researcher specializing in Middle East affairs at China’s Northwest University told Amwaj.media. “This may change now that the Chinese-made J-10 fighter jet has drawn its first blood”” I understand the premise, but I do not agree with it. As I see it, Russia and China are on decent par with America, They are always inching towards or ahead with each other. Don’t get me wrong, America has a great record, yet as I see it America has lately bungled a few fields. The first bungle is the USS Zumwalt, the ugliest ship in American navy (as I personally see it) and then there is issue with  key technologies, like specialized 155mm rounds, that are massively expensive. As such the Zumwalt class (that are set to just three vessels) for the grocery price of $8,000,000,000 per vessel. Making the destroyer decently more expensive than the USS Blue Ridge and a lot less operational, especially as ammunition of the Zumwalt is too expensive to afford (according to US Congress) that is a mere beginning. In 2021, I quoted (from ABC) “He said the combat jet currently had almost 900 design flaws, with seven considered critical.” This is in regards to the F35, as such China had options to get its foot in the front door (a bad manner sales technology) but at that point China gets the option to offer a solution to the Saudi government. It just occurred that this might be a reason. What if America isn’t keeping Saudi Arabia from the F35 for exclusivity, but to hide the fact that whatever Saudi Arabia gets will expose the flaws of the F35 to a much larger audience? I don’t know, I am merely postulating the thought of the reason why you want to keep an ally like Saudi Arabia away from a priced exclusive dinky toy (sorry, I just had to go there). 

The next setting is a decent one, Amwaj gives us “Yet, despite China offering cost-effective and no-strings attached alternatives, Saudi Arabia continues purchasing the majority of its weapons from the US. During President Donald Trump’s visit to the Kingdom in May, the two sides signed a historic 142B USD arms deal, the largest of its kind. This dynamic reveals the deeper truth in Saudi strategic thinking: purchasing weapons are more than commercial transactions, they are investments in a strategic partnership.” That could be the case, yet the way America treated Canada gives rise to the ‘strategic partnerships’ and that is on me, I could very well be seeing this wrong. But the flaws into America’s settings in design, in execution and in realism gives rise that Saudi Arabia needs to diversify beyond America. We are given “Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen. While the Eurofighter Typhoon incorporates some low-observable features, it is not considered a true stealth aircraft like the F-35.” As such, as the Rafale was ‘defeated’, China becomes the one diversifying direction and most likely the better choice over the Sukhoi Su-57 (after all, NATO calls it a Felon). And there is a geopolitical setting against adopting the Russian variant, as such Chengdu wins. That is if America keeps on playing the F35 as a Trump card. 

I reckon that adapting Saudi pilots to the Chengdu solution is a first setting and if Saudi Arabia gets an $80B discount on overall purchases, over 3-4 years and I reckon that it would go a long way to get Saudi Arabia adapt to Chinese airplanes and that would be a massive win (for China), as it would set the stage for Egypt and Indonesia adapt the Chinese versions as well (an optional presumption). A stage where China goes from 1 to 3 customers might be very appealing to China (say: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group) 

And this is the setting that Amwaj media exposed, well I set the premise at least 4 years earlier, but that is fine. Then we get the one true hard setting that Amwaj ‘exposes’. It is “Given Washington’s history of attaching political conditions to arms sales, Riyadh rightly fears that its predominantly American-made arsenal could become leverage to compel compliance. Most recently, this was seen in 2021, when the Joe Biden administration suspended offensive weapons sales in an effort to induce the Kingdom’s exit from Yemen.” The alternative, is that considered and correctly phased? If Saudi Arabia completely changes to Chinese weaponry, is that a hindrance or a opportunity? China will see it as a win, but it is not what China wants, it is what is preferred and what is best for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. That is the center stage and that is what matters. What is truly best for Saudi Arabia and that is up to the Saudi government. I have no idea because it requires several academic degrees and data that I have never had access to. Because if one domino topples, so will others. As such what is the Priceline and the cost of doing business. I might know some, but I have no idea on how the dominos are stacked. As such it is a bit of a minefield and whilst I would (as a commonwealthian) applaud the setting where Saudi Arabia adopts the Eurofighter Typhoon, there is a timeline to consider. It is not 5th generation and there is no real timeline for when the Eurofighter Typhoon gets to evolve into a 6th generation stealth fighter. And lets be clear, there are no clear timelines when its real enemy (the presumptuous Iran) becomes a real danger to Saudi Arabia and that is the flaw that is both a setting of hindrance and the optional danger block. These elements matter, but as I see it America needs to act, because the longer it delays, the larger the danger becomes that Saudi Arabia is forced to choice another direction and whatever direction Saudi Arabia selects would become a splinter in the board of toppling the America economy that America cannot undo, that much is clear and in this day and age, as America is alienating its allies, it needs to secure the settings it has. 

That is merely my view on the matter. Have a great day, 95 minutes until my breakfast.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 17, 2025 · 09:07

The war in Saudi Arabia

Yes, that sounds a little confusing, but that is the work of America. The BBC reported (at https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crr0gngkjrvt) ‘Ukraine not attending US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, government source tells BBC’ and that is not all. You see, as reported “Trump’s closest foreign policy advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are traveling to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations with their Russian counterparts – without Ukrainian involvement” and that is not all. You see at this point can anyone tell me how any negotiation without the aggrieved party went well? In further news “As our international correspondent Lyse Doucet writes, there’s a realisation in Europe that the old transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe is “broken”.” And to add to that smoldering fire which is picking up: “JD Vance uses his Munich Security Conference speech to scald European democracies, almost entirely ignoring Ukraine – the conference’s key focus” it is a larger setting that might befuddle you, but the larger extent is in the first America is broke. Their infrastructure is at the point of collapse. To make matters worse the 25% tariff on Aluminum and steel will hurt America more then Europe as reported, but is that true? You see as things fall to a zero point of budgets America has no ability to pay for any of that. I admit this is a personal view and all media will tell you that I am wrong, but when these issues hit they will proclaim that it was a much larger problem and they have (from ‘reliable’ anonymous sources) that other factors were much larger. I reckon that the media will translate ‘reliable’ to ‘sources close to to the matter at hand’ we will never get any names, but that is how they will play it.

The other setting that was given was “At the Munich security conference this weekend, where much of the diplomatic action around Ukraine has unfolded, Zelensky called for an “army of Europe”” That might be an issue. As America will shun its duties a lot more and delay matters with questionnaires Europe must act. Europe is the next stop for Russia and America sees that it will take Russia decades to set the tone there, in which the American rich boys (girls too) will have vacated to a nice retirement in a zero tax place. In the meantime the decades of mess that Europe now faces needs to be with a ready army and as America is unlikely to foot that entry, Europe seemingly has very few options. The first option is that they align with China and that is an option as JD Vance stated through the media as “He accused European governments of retreating from their values, and ignoring voter concerns on migration and free speech.” Well if that is the case, a case can be drawn up to create a fraternity with China in the house and America exiting the house. Perhaps America can make a deal with Russia, you see, when Europe and its 743 million consumers fall away, what is America left with? Canada is already shunning American goods whenever possible and when Europe does the same thing? The massive loss of €503 billion worth of goods, €319 billion worth of services as well as 2.3 million jobs in the US. Do you think China will shy away from that much? That will boost their economy in a massive way and that is before you realize that the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is making leaps into the Middle East and Africa. So what do you think will happen when the first EU nation signs an agreement with the Chengdu military hardware groups?

As I personally see it, America merely needs to lost 20% of all that to collapse. The race instigated by Wall Street is now having dire consequences. And they did not ‘fall victim’, they threw it away in stupidity. Just like the setting the BBC gave us 8 hours ago with ‘US government tries to rehire nuclear staff it fired days ago’ with the notable quote “The US government is trying to rehire nuclear safety employees it had fired on Thursday, after concerns grew that their dismissal could jeopardise national security, US media reported”, which made me giggle as we saw that danger pop up in hundreds of episodes of the Simpsons. So as we see these events unfold, we have one more BBC story to give you. At https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl27x74wpo we are given ‘‘Army of Europe’ needed to challenge Russia, says Zelensky’ there is a larger setting to this. You see, we might focus on “He also said Ukraine would “never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement” after Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to start peace talks.” But you would be wrong, the issue we see is found at “Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine also said Europe would be consulted but not take part in talks between the US and Russia, if and when they happen.” You see, the talks are to be had between the two bullies of the world and do you actually trust the outcome of that? Zelensky is right, Europe must get ready to counter Russia and that time is not far off as I speculatively see this. In this I have seen reports from Generals all over Europe and France is worried, the UK is worried and others are too, but Western Europe is about to become ground zero to the Russian expansion effort. So when I said that there was war in Saudi Arabia, it is the simple fact that two bullies, one mental and the other broke. That they are there to slice the world with America hoping for a 51st state. Living Europe to Russia. This is my speculation, but it fits with all the data we are exposed to. Europe only option is to either side with BRICS or align with China. I reckon the second is better and that comes with new agreed settings by the EU and as America needs to talkback the stupidity they invoked over the last week there aren’t too many takers for that conversation. 

How wrong am I?
I agree, I could be massively wrong, but that is what the data makes me think and in this case I solely used the BBC data available. But in light of the too speedy announcements out of America, can you show any other path? I reckon that as this unfolds America has a few more problems. I reckon that the UK, Germany and France will not openly welcome China in their Intelligence settings and that makes sense, but the Chinese side will be that America is cut off completely, so now the CIA, NSA and other alphabet groups (not Google) will be cut off as well. That will be likely their first demand in that and Europe will comply, UK likely as well and that sets a new premise. American intelligence will falter in Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia. That is the second step in the American economy buckling. America has a larger dependency to lose and soon no way to influence the flow of data. 

So feel free to debate and ignore what I say here (which is fair), but ask yourself a simple question. How can anyone deny participation of an aggrieved party? It is a simple enough question. Have a fun day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

February 5, 2025 · 13:25

News to me

That happens. I do not know everything and it is not my business to know everything. I learned that early in life, before I know thought I knew everything, I learned as I took the oath of a radio operator, that there is a price for knowing too I much and as such I tried to ‘calm’ the need to know too much. When it is in my business to know, I try to know the materials pretty thoroughly. I tech support there was one program I had to know, but I had to know it on dozens of systems and  for the most I knew the goods. This is not some spreadsheet or a presentation program and you know the in’s and outs of the program (not dissing these software solutions) but in one program know the issues on IBM MVS, DEC digital VMS, AS/400, Sun systems, Unit systems, Windows Systems and a whole lot more, and every mainframe had its own coordinators handbook. For the most it was OK. The dealers could help its own customers but when working deeper they came with questions on installation, data cleaning, syntaxes of the system and of course the limitations that existed per system. In an age where there was no system (it was promised, but was always a month away) I kept my head above water. So what does this have to do with the current issue?

It was given to me in the Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-is-forcing-canada-to-revive-a-decades-old-plan-to-reduce-u-s-dependence-248433) where we get ‘Trump’s trade war is forcing Canada to revive a decades-old plan to reduce U.S. dependence’ it is here that we are given “After threatening Canada and Mexico with illegal tariffs, and Canada with annexation, United States President Donald Trump has agreed to hold off on imposing tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days. This decision came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Trump and committed to strengthening border security” with the added “Early responses seem to have coalesced around two policies: for Canada to trade less with the U.S. and more with other countries and to strengthen the internal Canadian economy.” This implies that the free trade agreements were signed up with that in mind and to ‘diverge’ Canada to go that way. It seems weird that the ‘councilors’ of this US administration did not hammer on this, or seemingly did not hammer this. You see, as I see it President trump shot himself in the foot here. And then watered all over himself. Two distinct settings that could have been avoided. Now America faces tariffs themselves and come to boot Allies of Canada are signing up deals on all markets which will cost America dearly. It also means that the Commonwealth will become stronger as one together. I don’t know (at present) where India stands, but in retail and pharmaceutical solutions there is every chance that Canada will seek solutions in that field. So as we see “But it will impose significant costs on Canadians and require a fundamental readjustment in how we think about our economy and society.” This might be fair, but that all depends on what India could help save Canada costs, if that is achieved (though pharmaceuticals mainly) the net savings for Canada are a lot greater then expected. There will be cost in the beginning yet in the end it might work out cheaper (not easier) for Canada.

Then we are given “In 1972, then-Secretary of State for External Affairs Mitchell Sharp wrote a paper called “Canada-US Relations: Options for the Future.” At the time, international politics were in a moment of transition, and the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest.” It is here we are given (at https://gac.canadiana.ca/view/ooe.b1557737E_001/329) a lot more then we bargained for. It is a 332 page paper, as such the 46MB file is not here, but in its original location. As such I would surmise that American administrations forgot about ‘the U.S. was recalibrating its understanding of its national interest’ it seemingly forgot about this. I prefer to think that the setting of pending bankruptcy is making them knee jerk themselves into the next month and the next and the next. Yet there is a rather nasty hindsight to this (not for me). There is a rather urgent need to reassess criminal behavior. So the settings we see in London and other cities (like Los Angeles) imply that a more Venezuelan setting will come to America (thanks to Steve Inman) his comments are setting a new side to the debate. There is no doubt that these ‘free $1000 thefts’ will result in a need to shoot to kill escalation and for the most no one has a problem with that. This escalation is right on the horizon now. The $1000 misdemeanor setting will  (according to some) take care of the freeloaders and especially shopkeepers are fine with that. So as America does away with its freeloaders we still have an issue in Canada and for the most part I hesitate to consider what made America consider its tariff setting, especially as Canada was considering the paper in 1972, it might have been long, but not too long and in light of current trends this setting was on the horizon as were other options and now that America is feeling its first brunt with BRICS, there was a cautious tale on the horizon. And now that the US administration is setting up a ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ with the underlying ““We have tremendous potential,” Trump said while signing the order from the Oval Office on Monday. “I think in a short period of time, we’d have one of the biggest funds.”” (Source: The Guardian) I personally disagree. They HAD tremendous potential and now that they started the tariff wars (it doesn’t matter if it is on hold for 30 days). Canada is now looking at setting additional channels with the Commonwealth, whilst diminishing trade and we now see that there is a 1972 paper who did the hard stuff. The question is how much of that is still valid. I actually don’t know that, but I left the link for your reference. Then there is the options that America left on the floor and now China has an inner track to set a lot more towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I mentioned it more then once in the last two years. As America stifled the sale of their F35, China has been active on at least two weapons trade shows to give rise to the Chengdu J-20 from the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. Did you think that China left a call for a few dozen billion unanswered? At $110,000,000 that implies at least 3 squadrons and guess what, they will not be compatible with whatever Northrop Grumman or Raytheon has to offer. As such there could be a bigger shift in that setting. And as soon as China ‘proves’ that the Chengdu J-20 is at least equal or even superior to the F35, America loses that game too. You see, China only have to prove it is at least equal, a much lower threshold. Add that to the Canadian setting and as Canada can prove goods to the UAE and Saudi Arabia (optionally Egypt and Bangladesh) that are a few more markets where Canada will get slices of pizza that were meant for America. All that for a tariff? So how much more does America have to lose to show its ‘Sovereign Wealth Fund’ to be close to irrelevant. Yes, others will profit too. Yet Canada never wanted this setting in the first place and that is where short term considerations make some lose ‘their’ war. And just for consideration. Fentanyl is not new. As given by some “Fentanyl was synthesized in 1960 as an intravenous anesthetic and went on the market in the U.S. in 1968. Transdermal fentanyl was developed in the 1980s and was subsequently used for pain management in cancer patients” it was invented by the Belgiums and it has been on the market over half a century. So it is not new, the (speculated) non-actions by America made it an easy drug to score big on. In addition, it is a pharmaceutical  with a boxed warning. So why is it not a controlled substance set to a narcotic? Lets consider that narcotics were ‘outlawed’ in 1914 and went to the American market in 1968. So why was it even allowed? And even as we see in the Conversation where we are given “For the Third Option to be viable today, Canadians must embrace an independent Canadian identity based on respect for democracy, pluralism, the rule of law and human rights. It likely requires consensus that U.S. authoritarianism is wholly unacceptable to Canada.” And this third option point is now reached and so far (as is visible) nearly all the Commonwealth nations. As I see the Australian parties weaseling (my personal assessment) as “Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell is seeking talks with America” (source: News) where we see no clear message to Canada in support as a Commonwealth nation (like weasels as I personally see it). At this setting Scotland shows itself as a much more honorable Commonwealth nation, but the larger issue will be India, as that is where the massive parts of retail goes. I get that India is playing a sensitive game but something must give at some point, Canada needs us now. From a personal note, Canada was there for the Netherlands in WW2. As Dutch born I will stand with Canada on this.

Yet the larger setting is missed. In the end Canada is not the larger play. It will be China and what it can grab from America on the long term from them involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and optionally Egypt as well.

So have a loverly day and if you are in America try drinking Tim Hortons for a change. It might wake you up faster, stronger and better.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 10, 2024 · 13:06

A little late aren’t you?

It was the setting I was waiting for. The US has given in to its economic pressures and possibly the fear that China might get to much of a headway. Reuters this morning gives me (and other readers) at https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lift-ban-offensive-weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-sources-say-2024-08-09/ the headline ‘US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia’, which sounds nice but is possibly a little late. Colonel Turki Al-Maliki a member of the Saudi airforce had given us the goods, going all the way back to February 2021. Reuters reported on these attacks in March 2021. In this Reuters is important as they give us ‘Houthis have fired 430 missiles, 851 drones at Saudi Arabia since 2015 – Saudi-led coalition’, the setting is important because civilian targets were aimed at by Houthis amongst them were Saudi airports and structures. So the blockage by the US was weird, especially as the Houthis are a terrorist organisation. So the about turn under the guise of “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours”, a little late, isn’t it? But at present the Chinese representatives of parties like the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is nothing to be sneered at, with the Chengdu J-20 as an optional buy which was (allegedly) discussed at the World Defense Show 2024 in February 2024 (a speculation from me) is giving the Chinese hope to gain much more from the American Defence Industry. Should the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia take that offer, the setting would open the doors (for China) to larger possibilities in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates as well. The damage to the American Industry could amount to an estimated loss of $30-$50 billion over these three nations alone. Not to mention the lucrative service and consultancy jobs. It would be the first definite slam to the value of the US dollar. China is rearing to take up that option in a heartbeat. I discussed (and partially speculated) this in ‘The next Furlong’ which I wrote on March 10th 2022 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/03/10/the-next-furlong/), as such I was and am now in a stage to emphasise the term ‘told you so’. This setting was clear then and it is a speculated more clear now when we see “Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns.” We are about to go into election mode and some politicians will fear for their job a lot more than the American Economy. As such China has a decent chance to crush the American Defence industry. I doubt they fear the Russian abilities as the Russians are getting clobbered by the 20th largest army in the world. The Ukrainians are still damaging the Russian, even after the Russians bombed Ukraine into the stone age. That is not a good sales talk, especially  with the current Russian losses stated below

As such we can accept the Reuters statement, because of its projected validity, yet the words we are given “Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years”, yet the article doesn’t emphasise the attacks by Houthi’s on Saudi civilian targets, which Colonel Turki Al-Maliki showed many clearly going all the way back to 2021, many articles were drowned out by (speculatively speaking) by anti Muslim and anti Saudi voices. Now that China gets to move into a much stronger position, the American administration is taking the gloves off and do what needed to be done in 2021. I reckon that people like Stephanie Kirchgaessner will possibly raise anonymous sources to throw sand in the cogs of common sense. China will love this as this will enable them to get a squadron on Chengdu J-20 into place and optionally ‘gift’ three service teams in the mix, two for maintenance and one to train  Saudi troops. The losses to America will be vast and it will a long term loss. 

As such I think that they were over 2 years late to the party. The initial transfer settings were optionally carved (I have no clear evidence of this) in the airshows of 2021 by SAMI. That would have been the first introductions of Chinese hardware that was to replace whatever America wasn’t giving them at that time. As I personally see it, it might be too late now. You see the Russian losses as shown above are the second piece of evidence. In that setting Russia is no longer a contender and as they are now ‘acquiring’ missiles from North Korea we see a larger question mark, is it merely the lack of missiles or does Russia have a larger problem. I do not know, but Russia isn’t telling, so we are left to our speculations and the Kursk clambake of 2024 Makes things worse for Russia. And in that setting China gets to be the big winner. OK, I admit, this victory would be largely held by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (and supporting parties).

Have a nice day and feel free to watch American revenues move to the far east.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 27, 2023 · 12:47

Ding Ding, the premise is set

Yes, this is not new, I made mention of this danger several times over the last two years. And now the media is tarting to catch on. The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/26/russian-weapons-manufacturers-hosted-at-saudi-trade-event) gives us ‘Russian weapons manufacturers hosted at Saudi trade event’, you see, some might think one part, or the other part, but personally I believe that they were invited as a courtesy. There is the option that they were invited to make sure that the China offers are financially sharp, but that is the sales world for you. You see, they might offer Russian Helicopters, like the Ka-52 Alligator helicopter. Yet the Ukrainians have ben shooting them out of the sky by the dozens, so the options are speculatively not there I reckon and the way Russia is losing hardware, every machined piece of cavalry and artillery better come with a ballpoint (for write off purposes). This was the stage that was going to happen no matter how you slice it. The US thought it was clever and it is now (not so) cleverly losing billions in defence spending by Saudi Arabia and its allies. So when we see “Perhaps the most significant participant in the meetings with the Saudis is Rostec, a Russian state-owned defence systems” and we consider the byline “Companies with direct links to Russian military set to attend, which is likely to heighten tensions with US” no one seems to be noticing that Stephanie Kirchgaessner with her anti-Saudi writing is involved and the larger question is missing is “a similar trade forum with Chinese businesses had also been held recently, although those businesses did not involve firms with connections to the Chinese military.” Really? 

The Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group has no links to the Chinese Military? Tell me another one. Then there is “What is different here, and these recent business events are just one sign of it, is a major reorientation of Saudi policy towards Russia and China, and away from the USA and west Europe”, which comes from some unnamed source. The fun part is that I have ben saying this for close to two years and the first year there was an option to turn this around, yet the US and UK were sitting on their hands and now it is seemingly too late. This is the consequence of a stupid game played by the Pentagon, US Congress, the White House (in and out of office) and the House of Commons. This is the result of stupidity and there is no “heighten tensions with US”, the US is about to lose so much revenue that certain banking moguls will cut up the US credit card (and lower credit ratings in the process). 

Another step achieved by ego grandstanding and inactions. So where will Saudi Arabia, the UAE and a few other players go to? My money is currently on the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, but it is a speculative view and I lack certain levels of industry knowledge in that direction. As such I could be wrong, but I do feel that the failures in the Ukraine makes Russia a non-player in this game. Merely a column C option and it is there to make sure that those in Column A and B keep their prices down. This make makes it (for me) about half a dozen predictions right on the nose. Not bad in this day and age I reckon.

Enjoy the Weekend

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 23, 2022 · 21:35

Oil in the family

This is not exactly new, it is a stage that evolved in the last week. To see that we need to take a look at ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) which hands us (at https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/opec-production-cut-has-washington-questioning-the-value-of-its-saudi-alliance/) a mere three weeks ago ‘OPEC production cut has Washington questioning the value of its Saudi alliance’, in itself the question is not invalid. Every nation assesses its value towards services delivered, but in that same stage, the direction can be inverted and as such the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is questioning the value that the United States brings to the table. President Biden asked to make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. It has stopped deliveries of defence equipment to the KSA all whilst the KSA was under attack by terrorist forces who were receiving aid from Iran. And when we see “Critics of the OPEC decision say it will increase the price of oil at a time when US consumers are already feeling the impact of high energy prices. A higher oil price will also provide a significant boost to Russia’s struggling economy.” All whilst the US exports 90% of its oil, as such they are sitting pretty as well. But the article does not mention that, it is increasingly one sided. Then we get the second setting and it is seen with “Saudi Arabia has lost much of its prestige and is in damage control to rebuild its image internationally and shore up its relations with the US. To reset the relationship in Washington, Saudi-backed lobbyists have spent millions of dollars. Biden responded by visiting Saudi Arabia, presumably as a gesture of goodwill and to attempt some recalibration.” It is the ‘lost much of it prestige’, by what standard? The KSA gained massive silent prestige with Neom and the line, two stages never seen before and the US has nothing in opposition to that. It will be relying on the coattails of Saudi achievements for the next 20 years. A nation that is so broke it cannot fix its support structures, and that all before we see the damage the ultra right is making in the US. And where is the so called hypocritical ‘honest’ media? When did you see any clear article on the line or Neom? The mainstream media is steering clear of it, no doubt due to the (my speculative view) word from stakeholders. 

This is in contrast to the Vox a week ago where we see “Biden “wants to be able to reevaluate in a methodical, strategic, effective way,” clarified national security adviser Jake Sullivan, “rooted in his fundamental interest in making sure that the relationship the United States has with Saudi Arabia serves the American people effectively.” Sullivan in essence suggested that things so far had not been going well.” We see this (at https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/17/23423031/why-america-cant-seem-to-quit-saudi-arabia), it is showing us a stage set. We are given “Now that the Biden administration re-evaluates its approach a third time, will it come to a new conclusion? It will be tough to change much. The US, after all, relies on the kingdom as a major oil producer and economic power with important shipping lanes, a close partner in countering Iran and terrorist organisations, and a significant trading partner and number-one purchaser of US weapons.” But that stage is not entirely true, that WAS the stage, but as China moved in, we see a spiralling US economy. Lets not give food to the speculator’s there. China increased exports and services to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 24 billion in 2019 to 30 billion in 2021, some views give us that it is now approaching 33 billion and as Neom and the Line grows, China will gain more. That is 9 billion the US and Europe lost, more importantly China is now getting more oil and the talks implying that Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan gives us the indication that this will not halt any day soon, it also implies that the US is partially done for. Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that. I personally do not care, I warned the US and the UK that there will be a price to pay soon enough and I made that prediction in 2020, now that this is about to happen, President Biden can play its games and let the media decide how much they hate the KSA and Muslims, or he can fold the game. The UK with its CAAT is in a similar position. They had the upper hand towards 2-3 billion in weapon sales, predominantly the Typhoon, now that money is most likely to go towards the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, China will be extending its arms for extended services towards Saudi Arabia.

The players wanting to keep Saudi Arabia on some kind of leash are now forced to fold their game. They lost to China and the damage is increasing. It is a fair assessment that the Russian – Ukrainian stage did not help, but that is how the cookie crumbles at times. As some stakeholders encouraged anti Saudi sentiments, they forgot that they weren’t the only players and what is coming now is hurting their long term policies in the Middle East and in the Far East. Did you think it was a fluke that the Silk Road was investing in Indonesia? It has over 200 million Muslims and that opens up new commerce borders and Saudi Arabia is ready to collect. I saw part of this last year and I tried to bank on it, but alas the KSA was not assisting (poor me), now that we see this evolving stage, players like Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and his Kingdom Holding Company will make increasing profits in new areas, all whilst the US and EU are given their walking papers. In the next two years their share will decrease by well over 40%, all whilst their political power in that region is most likely to be a trivial one. One ego driven stage led to the larger loss on influence in the Middle East and soon the Far East as well. A stage that China is happy about, the others? Not so much.

But I saw parts of this a year ago, so why did the media not see this? I am not more intelligent than them, but I can read raw data and that was where a lot was all along. But feel free to disagree with me, it is your right, yet when the oil valve closes a little more, just watch the chaos unfold. When you create a mobile industry you need to be weary of essential parts you need, fuel being one of them and the other solution is not as fast as people keep on slapping Elon Musk with his Tesla. All elements in a game where the people who have oil in the family will have the last laugh. Which remind me, how much longer will the US export 90% of its oil? Is there no shortage in the US? 

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

September 10, 2021 · 07:56

Yesterday was fun

Yes, yesterday was fun for several reasons, not in the least that some people (referring to themselves as a member of the Anony Mouse population) are in the misgiven idea that I could be Mr Theodore Raitor. Nothing could be further from the truth!

In the First
In the first the arms industry is a business. I did not make it that way, the American did that during the Vietnam war. They made it a business and less than a dozen boards of directors took home billions in all kinds of manners. I am not opposing that, I am not offering another view, I could but there is some wisdom in taking that route, it comes with successes and it also comes with failures. 

In the second
Following the first, I have at all times the direct believe that ANY sovereign nation is allowed its ability to defend itself, that includes Middle East and Far East Nations. The ability to arm and defend itself should be open to any nation. The Belgium Fabrique National in Herstal founded itself on that premise and for them in the 80’s (optionally 90’s as well) business was good, really good. 

These two rules are there out in the open, the media tends to not report on that side of it all. You see the media relies on ‘click bitches’ and their reporting is centred around that premise. National defence is a well trusted stage for emotional reporting and I am not objecting to that, they merely made a choice. Thats also where I drew the line to failure. Ford created the Edsel and for 3 years they tried that but after year 3 they stopped it, their losses came down to what would now be regarded as a $2 billion loss. They quietly let this failure die, which is what they were allowed to do and yes, we all (the older people) make jokes on it and Hollywood added to that in Peggy Sue got Married. It was all good. Now we see that the Lockheed Martin boys (girls also) are trying to continue their stage after making an investment well over 1000 times and they want it to continue. Losses a thousand times bigger than Ford had, is anyone seeing that marker? Now it is up to Lockheed Martin to do whatever they need to do, because it is their right (and other people’s money) and that is the larger stage, the US taxpayer is paying for that failure. 

For me there is a simple setting. There is a customer (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) that has a right to defend itself, so I would happily sell them the BAE Typhoon, but there the UK cut themselves when we see the CAAT (Campaign Against Arms Trade) with all these grannies with signs telling the UK government that Saudi Arabia is evil, it cannot have weapons, but they do not hold that candle up to Iran who is funding Houthi attacks on civilian populations. So there is an alternative, China has an alternative. And even if that makes me a really well paid courier. I am willing to ferry those papers between buyer A and seller B. Yes, I agree that getting 3.75% out of $11,000,000,000 is a bit much, but I never made those rules, did I? The US and their business enterprises did that. I merely saw the ball falling and I decided to pick it up. China is not in a war with Australia, the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group is a respectable defence ability offerer (most usual to China) and the US has a lemon, so there is nothing wrong and those trying to create click bitches need to consider that I never made any of these rules, I merely use the rules of the game to get a job and to get a decent payment. If the KSA decides that I cannot have the $412,500,000 and that I am only allowed $50,000,000 I will not be upset (optionally a little disappointed), but that is any mouse who gets the slice of cheese and not the cheese wheel in a building filled with cheese wheels. 

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a right to get defence materials and the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group has a right to sell them to anyone their government is not at war with. These are not my rules, the Americans did that and they stood by whilst the Taliban ended with over 8 billion in American hardware and they also did close to nothing when ISIS got their hands on more American Toyota 4 wheel drives then can be found in Guttenberg, New York. So there!

Do I stand a chance? Not really, but the fact that I am willing to do business where there is business also implies that there are other players and as a former NATO boy, I rather see these funds go to China then to Russia with their Sukhoi Su-57 or their new puppy the Checkmate. This is the consequence of making defence a business, its all good and overpaid fun until someone creates a lemon. A lemon one that costs the taxpayer $2,300,000,000,000. Are you awake? Can you see the cost of one article (read: lemon) currently equals the total debt of Germany? 

Do I want in? Absolutely! This one deal could make me more money than half a century of day to day slaving, it is like getting the golden lottery ticket and this really pays off! 

Is it bad for Lockheed Martin? Yes it is, like Ford with their Edsel, all failure is shared, but it could result in a big win, you merely have to watch Nintendo who turned their WiiU failure into a homerun success (Nintendo Switch), I personally see the Lockheed Failure in the same way as we see failures from Microsoft. Too many politicians who ignore the core business and try to steer towards the Fata Morgana of mountains of gold on the horizon, when you do that you merely steer from failure to failure and the defence players better catch on quick. You see the buyers are not interested in hype creating marketeers, they want results and Lockheed Martin is not delivering that and whilst we speculate that the media is taking notes from speculative stakeholders, the buyer in the end is a defence industry who is not interested in marketing, they have a clear goal, not a fictive on on the horizon and that is one ferry I am happy to board (with permission of its captain). It is the direct result of a labour force who is all in touch with feelings and not in line with expected needs and KPI sessions. So yes, yesterday was fun for more than one reason and it could end up being a whole lot more fun if I do get that job.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 24, 2020 · 01:39

On the fence

Yup we are at times all on the fence, some call me massively pro Saudi Arabia, yet for the most I am more anti hypocrisy. There is way to much of that going on. Saudi Arabia at present has the fastest 5G on the planet, pretty much all over their nation, why is that? Saudi Arabia is attempting to create a large high tech futuristic city well over 20 times the size of New York, who knows this? Be honest to yourself, what do you know? 

Turkey has the most incarcerated journalists on the planet, sources also give us “64 names of journalists killed between 1909 and 2009”, this happened in Turkey, can you even name one person? (At http://www.cgd.org.tr/index.php?Did=22), that is not even the beginning, we are also given “A published a list in April 2012 that contained 112 names of incarcerated journalists” (at https://www.gazeteciler.com/gundem/103-yilda-112-gazeteci-ve-yazar-olduruldu-50058h.html), I had problems getting the actual page and it is 8 years ago, so it might be that it was removed. Reuters gave us last year “More than 120 journalists are still being held in Turkey’s jails, a global record, and the situation of the media in the country has not improved since the lifting of a two-year state of emergency last year, a global press watchdog said on Tuesday”, so how much screaming do we get on that front? How many care, in sight of the one Saudi journalist no one cares about, I think that these 120 people will just vanish. As such when I see ABC giving us ‘Calls for countries like Australia to boycott Saudi Arabia’s G20 summit over the jailing of female political prisoners’, and I see the name of QC Baroness Helena Kennedy connected to all this, I am at a loss to consider what the fuck she thinks she is connected to. How much actions did she take on the 120 journalists? And when we get to ‘calls for countries like Australia’, I wonder what the hell is going on, how can we be blind in one direction and give rise to the other, for me that touches on discrimination. 

As such the Irish Law Gazette, gives us ‘‘Bubble has burst’ on Saudi crimes – Khashoggi fiancée’, yes, please tell us WHAT CRIMES? The stage is clear, apparently and allegedly a journalist is missing, we expect foul play, but at present we cannot prove it, the investigators screwed up the setting, some UN essay writer made it all worse and we are given “The fiancée of murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has said that G20 leaders have a moral duty to solve his case”, a nice touch from the Law Gazette, but murder must show intent, or it is at the most ‘alleged murder’, the G20 leaders have no criminal expertise, so why should they solve it and all the tainted evidence comes from the nation with the most incarcerated journalists, are we catching on yet? As such we see a fiancee (Hatice Cengiz) shouting out to any media that will print and that is fair enough, but we need to see the larger picture of a missing person, not unlike the alleged murder of Suzanne Pilley (UK), in this even the BBC printed in 2012 that they hope to find the body, and this is the issue, I am not stating that Suzanne Pilley was not murdered, I am not stating that Jamal Khashoggi went clubbing, I am stating that the evidence is not there, that UN essay writer spend 105 pages on it and was able to set a political agenda as well, which she hid on page 98 (Support to freedom of expression in the gulf region), yup her mission was done and it took only one journalist to get the game rolling. So in all this will Baroness Helena Kennedy have anything to add?

No one is debating that Saudi Arabia is a nation adjusting to modern times, or did you forget the small detail that Women were not allowed to vote in Australia until 1911, and in the US when the 19th Amendment was passed, it was done because of the Republicans? Over 200 Republicans voted in favour of the 19th Amendment, while only 102 Democrats voted alongside them, as such only 102 Democrats thought the women worthy of the right of voting. It was introduced in 1878, but it would take up to 1920 to ratify it, small details we tend to overlook, so when we see the 102 democrats, which democrats were against it? Can we see names please?

We think we are all so uppity uppity clever, but we dropped the ball again and again, this is not a shame, it is merely life and those denying its lessons will repeat it again and again, so as we claim to be a nation of laws, let’s then adhere to the law. I never claimed that certain Saudi Arabians were innocent, I am merely stating that there is no evidence at all towards their guilt, and is there not a saying that people are innocent until found guilty in a court of law? In the case of the journalist nobody cares of and we consider the massive amount of tainted evidence, no conviction will ever happen, not in a true setting of the application of law, but most people knew that, did they not?

I remain on the fence, I personally think that something happened to him, what? I cannot tell, the evidence is lacking in too many places and the essay that the UN released merely adds questions, not solutions, merely the beginning of political plays. Neom City was the start point of some of my IP design, that is why I take notice, I expect to get at least 3-5 more pieces of IP out of that setting and a city that big, how can that not happen? I feel certain that others will get their IP, construction firms are starting to figure things out and when (not if) the EU collapses under mounting debts, Neom City might hold the ticket for optional new wealth, yet this time it will be by adjusting to Islamic law and islamic rules, a stage that might dread plenty of people, yet if new growth is gained by change, what new borders will we all surpass? The US is heading to darker waters, the Covid issues, the Paris accords, all choices that the US is allowed to make, but these changes have alienated the EU in the process, and even as some are awaiting President elect Biden to take up the baton, the larger stage is not set and when we see that (Newsweek) gives us ‘Pompeo Says U.S.-Saudi Ties Are ‘Strong,’ but Biden Looks to Pressure ‘Pariah’ State’, we optionally see a much larger problem, but that I OK, I am ready and willing to find an alternative solution to a $8,500,000,000 arms invoice that the US is squandering, I have two parties willing (read: chomping at the bit) to satisfy the needs of Saudi Arabia, one mans loss is another mans new castle and I do have a nice castle in mind with the 3.75% bonus I would gain from that, so here, at least that is what Guan De of the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group thinks, they are willing to take it of the American hands, when they fumble the ball someone has to pick it up, it might as well be me.

So when you get all huffy and puffy, consider that at least Baroness Helena Kennedy is working of at least some level of evidence, you see that the acts of Hillary Kennedy were not wrong, there are flaws in Saudi Arabia, but when we consider the progress they have made, the progress they are making and the silence we see all sides give Turkey, I merely wonder how stupid the actions of some are. It is admirable that the US is willing to face hunger for morality it for the most cannot prove, yet what about these 80 million hungry Americans, will they like the decisions that come? I reckon so, they voted, did they not?

So that is why I am on the fence, evidence that is failing, accusations that come without evidence, all whilst the players with evidence are taking the long road around those problems, I have always had an issue with that, all whilst Saudi Arabia is the top player in 5G speed and they are setting a construction endeavour the sight we have NEVER seen before and why isn’t every paper in the world looking at that part, is that not weird too? 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,