Tag Archives: Defence spending

First the giggles, then the howls

Yup, it all started late last night when I was alerted to an article (at https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/01/how-china-winning-middle-east/393483/) where we see ‘How China is winning the Middle East’. It is here that we are given “China is working to present itself as a responsible alternative to the U.S. in the Middle East, just as many are questioning Washington’s long-term commitment to the region”, the article was originally from January 19th 2024. Now consider that on September 9th 2021 I wrote ‘Lemon of the Century’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/09/lemon-of-the-century/), so I mentioned that danger over 2 years ago and it started happening a year later (alas, not my involvement) I initially wrote “I made a case to sell (as a corporate individual) to sell the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia either the British BAE Typhoon, or the somewhat better match the Chinese Chengdu J-20. Now, this is not on principles, but the US making Saudi embargo after embargo, all whilst it is mere puppet play and there was no direct need to stop the sales, especially as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was under direct attack by Houthi forces directly sponsored from Iran and the people were eager to ignore that fact. So there I was taking a stab at a 3.75% sales commission, and in light of a $11,000,000,000 sales ticket could bank me $412,500,000 over a few years. Now, I know, am I greed driven? Nope! But I am not walking away from such a massive mealticket!” As such it took defense one well over two years to see the dangers I saw clearly coming then. How laughable is that? What are these American three letter organisations doing? This wasn’t a surprise, this was clearly in view. 

So now we see “China’s narrative in this effort is one of not just opportunity for Middle Eastern states, but constant subtle or overt comparison between U.S. and Chinese goals in the region.” Say what? This was in clear view and I made several mentions in the last two years alone. So whilst you giggle on that consider that I am now calling the match Me (myself and I) versus DARPA a win with the final score being 6-0. I just realised that around three years ago I designed a stealth solution to sink the Iranian fleet (cost around $750K per vessel) yet I suddenly remembered that solution (I keep on designing other stuff) and the principles of Archimedes apply globally, as such they should have no problem with Russian vessels either. Not bad for a person that some see as a loser (well they do), but in the end it is creativity that wins innovation, it wins IP on a much larger scale and in support of that it could win a war too. If you doubt that, consider that “the basic idea of radar had its origins in the classical experiments on electromagnetic radiation conducted by German physicist Heinrich Hertz during the late 1880s.” So the Germans did not see the applications and they could have had an entire war advantage half a century long. In the end it was Watson Watt, Wilkins, and Bowen that turned it into something functional and that gave them the edge somewhere between 1930 and 1940. The application of my solutions are reimagined solutions of something that was out in the field. OK, my idea to melt down nuclear reactors came from a snow globe, so that is one that is all mine. 

When you consider that and the fact that I am calling a 6 point sore on DARPA you might howl with laughter and that is fine. But consider that I kept a lot on my blog. There is a timeline and DARPA has nothing to put against that and now we see that Defense One makes mention of a ‘danger’ all whilst I made clear mention of that well over two years ago. That is what it means to be asleep at the wheel. And I am not innocent of that either. You see I made mention of an idea some time ago and I just realised that it could be applied to the series Engonos (season 2 or 3) but I forgot about the idea (another reason to keep a blog). Now as it resurfaced in my mind I also realise that as I am concentrating on another script (How to assassinate a politician for Al Saudiya) that I am new to that. As such all writers (not just me) seem to think in active terms. There are four parts in any script (no technical reference), they are active, reactive and both can be endotherm or exotherm. Implying that from within or from outside sources. That was the part that as a storywriter you take notice on, but in writing a script that setting goes different. As such I suddenly remembered Ate, daughter of Eris and suddenly other ideas come flowing in, OK, some based on ideas my mind had created, but I never considered it as the entire setting of Engonos was not on my mind. That came well over a year later. 

You might wonder what one has to do with the other. Well, creativity goes in several directions and it was creativity in data that gave me the view of China becoming a much larger provider of Middle Eastern defence structures. It seems that Defense One only caught on a week ago. Now, that doesn’t make me ‘more’ correct, but when you see the settings how it was THEN, most people with BI insights would get similar conclusions. I did my ships engineering in the 70’s. Those principles gave me the idea for the stealth solution I designed decades later. Education matters, it might not matter now, but it allows the creative mind to see additional solutions, solutions that do not even exist when the thoughts were created. That is true innovation and that leads to larger advantages in any field. That is what some fat cats forgot about and as the stations are brought to bear they will all cry that it was unfair, but the reality was that they slept on. Only 20 hours ago the Business Standard treated us to ‘The online ad cookie is crumbling as Google Chrome secures privacy’ whilst another source gives us “Advertisers aren’t willing to pay as much for random internet users, so every time the page loads for a cookie-less Chrome user, it’s bringing in less money than it might have before.” The problem with these trains of thoughts was that I saw the announcement AT Google well before the first Covid shutdown, so it has been a while, so these people never prepared. How silly is that? Howlingly laughing silly. And that is where we see the stage. We giggle on some news, we howl at news and clams and we lose our shit laughing when we see that the non prepared mind should have known better and they all connect. Because change forces us to become creative, in two cases that wasn’t done. So whilst some may sneer and laugh at my claims, I put my claims out in the open on a blog and I did it 2 years earlier. The snow globe solution is there too, not sure how much I put online on the stealth vessel sinking solution (oh, SVSS sounds cool) but there you have it, we cannot anticipate everything. But I do like the idea that my idea could be applied to Russian vessels as well, as such, DARPA eat your heart out.

Have a lovely Monday. Tuesday started just now here.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Military, Politics, Science

Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

2 Comments

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics

Dopey and Grumpy, still dwarves

That is the setting and it is a strange setting, but it relates to ‘When it rains we call the kettle black’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/12/11/when-it-rains-we-call-the-kettle-black/) which I wrote two days ago. Yet I did not know there was more, and just now I come across ‘Saudi Arabia demanded defense firms set up in country by 2024. So far, most seem unmoved’ (at https://breakingdefense.com/2022/12/saudi-arabia-demanded-defense-firms-set-up-in-country-by-2024-so-far-most-seem-unmoved/), to be honest, I had heard some stuff in that direction, but I was unaware of how deep it went, and now I see “as long as it is related to the government contracts, they will have to have their regional headquarters here”, with the added “analysts said that the biggest players appear confident they can find workarounds — including the use of local partnerships and subsidiaries, as they’ve done in other countries — to keep the market open” and there the stupid factor comes into play. You see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has had enough of fake allies, fake commitments and now China is ready to make commitments and as the KSA is moving towards the 2030 mark of 50% in country defence and China is willing to play nice, the US is set to lose a whole lot of revenue. So there is your workaround, greedy and stupid working in cahoots like Grumpy and Dopey, both sides of a currency that has no meaning where they are, it is the sales prospects that counts and they are giving it all to China. You can only be the biggest player if you sell and there were markers for sale events and now there is a clear understanding in strategic papers no less that China is moving into sales column A. So when we think through what Breaking Defense gave us on December 8th, the US better realise that the age of pretending to do something and doing something else as a workaround is ending and it is ending really quickly. So when we see the larger players like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, Leonardo, Thales, and General Dynamics. What happens when the representative $27,000,000,000 goes to China? Twenty Seven Billion no longer to the US, the dollar will take another dive and more importantly, the design of their stealth planes required some Saudi Funds, when they go to the Chengdu J-20, the impact will be seen all over the US, EU and NATO. I made mention of these dangers as early as September 2021. The fact that some American Fat Cats were playing stupid with a customer paying billions is a little new, but there is no surpassing the union of stupid and ego, it makes for a nice package, one that China could be enjoying a lot more than they figured on. And there is a chance that the strategic union between Saudi Arabia and China will go that far. Not only will the US lose their Middle East stage, they will in that same action lose whatever benefits they had in Egypt as well. And just to remind you on a speculative side. If China buys in this deal 2 million barrels a day from the American stack, the US is in deep manure. It does make the grass grow in Texas, but that is pretty much all it does. 

As such the last week has given us all kinds of revelations via several media sources. But the larger news is that State secretary Pompeo gives us ‘Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia a result of “bad American policy”’ and the bad news merely stacks. Yes Saudi Arabia is not squandering the connections with the US, their words and they are right. The US themselves are squandering it to China by playing chicken with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to appease their ego’s, and that is what is clearly in place and will shown over the next 13 months. You see, there will not be any 11th hour changes, if these regional HQ’s are not in place by December 2023 China will end up with a massive chunk of Saudi defence spending. China is happy with it, will the US be? I doubt it, but they catered to ego, so there you have it. It does not matter who Dopey and Grumpy are, in the end they were merely dwarves and as I see it, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is willing to make a large change and it will cost the US, it will cost them so much. I wonder how they will spin this loss, because at present that is exactly what it will become. A loss to their ally list, a loss to their economy and a loss of income. All handed to China for the mere satisfaction of ego. Government handed partnerships to players like Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and a few other players for the cumulative sum of a mere 1% of that, did you think the Saudi Government wasn’t keeping tabs? Silly bunnies!

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics