Category Archives: Media

April 19, 2023 · 14:38

Too big a workforce?

Yes, there is a speculative setting where this happens. The BBC revealed yesterday (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65305165) the clear message ‘EY cuts 3,000 jobs in US blaming ‘overcapacity’’, and I wonder what really the issue is. You see when you have to shed 10-20 jobs there are all kinds of explanations. But when you shed 3000 jobs something else is going on. I wonder what it is. And there is plenty to question. You see on their website they claim “Apply now. We recommend applying early as we will be recruiting on an ongoing basis, and positions will close once filled.  View the current opportunities below. There are a small number of programs which have closing dates. Once we open for those programs, their closing dates will be listed underneath the program.” My issue is that when you shed THAT many jobs, you need to adjust your career page as well. I personally think that this is a job for HR, but that remains debatable. When you shed 3000 jobs and your career pages imply that it is business as usual another setting comes to mind. To be honest I am not sure what it is, but something is there. In the 90’s and ten years ago it was in IT and several other places about shedding the expensive staff members and getting cheap labour (graduates). Now there are a few issues. The first is that Ernst and Young has over 360,000 people. This means that only 1% is affected and that happens. Yet this only affects US staff and the number I gave you is global. There are issues in banking and that could be a setting, but whatever I give you is speculative and might not apply. But in the US we see that there is slowing but they are surpassing the numbers, as such these numbers do not add up. But the BBC gives us a handle. We are given “The move comes as corporate America is bracing for an economic downturn”, OK I can get along with that, it merely implies that EY was ahead of the curve which is never a bad thing. And they are not alone, we are also given “Accenture is slashing 19,000 jobs or roughly 2.5% of staff globally, while McKinsey is reportedly cutting about 1,400 roles or 3% of its employees” and there is more bad news, but not for EY. You see, in an age of aging losing that much staff might become counterproductive later on. We see the events that call for an economic downturn and that is fine, this happens. But in other news we see Europe going on (slightly less god than now) and the Middle East and Asia is making waves, larger positive waves. I would think that retrenching staff in the latter two areas might give a raise to better times down the track and optionally sooner. OK, I am pretty much alone in this. Most BI people say I am bonkers and they might be right. But the idea of losing qualified staff in a world where relocating them might offer more seems weird. You see, only two days ago the Financial Times gave us ‘Dubai court orders KPMG to pay $231mn for Abraaj fund audit failure’ according to the courts KPMG dropped the ball, which in sales terms means that their customers are looking around. That could be good news for EY and we do get that these grounds are not the same, but to get parties shifting into these areas implies that other areas need filling up and losing 3000 staff is not a healthy way to fill places and relocate people to fertile accountancy lands. Even as we see that most are shed from the consulting division, the truth is that most consultants are versatile, there are grounds of not losing that much staff, but that is purely a personal view on the matter. Consider the cowboy stage of cyber divisions, the need for consultants are more and more pressing, not merely on the Cyber part, but on the price-tag setting. That part could need addressing quite soon and that is where we find that EY cannot vie for such clients as they just told 3000 people to vacate the building. That I how I see it, but I could be massively wrong here and I am not an accountant. And when you see that Accenture is ridding itself of 19,000 jobs implies a larger failing all over the field. In 2003 Telia shed thousands of jobs, as far as I can tell they never rose to the old Telia, but that was merely me seeing it as I personally saw it. Is it the wrong thing to do for EY? I cannot say, but to shed 3000 jobs in the US implies more than just Economic downturn, it implies that they are already losing customers and long term projects, or they aren’t gaining long term projects, which implies that there is another issue at EY, not merely overcapacity. Yet, this is a personal view on the matter and I have no idea on how they could solve it, but as I see things around me I wonder what consultants are doing not merely to get the job done, but how to get new clients and that is the stage for the next article, because the story I wrote on February 24th 2022 ‘Red Flags’ gets a new lease on life. About that more in the next article, lets see if people actually learn from their mistakes.

Have fun (I will)

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April 17, 2023 · 22:23

Dimension of oversimplification

This all started a few days go when I initially saw the article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/toronto-pearson-airport-delays-1.6534360) where we are given ‘Toronto’s Pearson airport has a PR problem: It’s known as the worst airport in the world’ the article was one that had been around since October 2022, as such I reckon they wanted to pour salt on the wound. I am more of a solution kind of man, I wanna find out what the target makes it tick. Yet in the heart of the matter for any service set location, it tends to boil down to two elements. Resources and funding. The heart of the matter always boils down to these two, there tends to be no alternative. As such when it comes down to an airport, especially an essential one like the one for a village the size of Toronto, things did not make much sense to me. So lets take a look at the article.

“Disgruntled travellers passing through Pearson are posting about their bad experiences on social media, complaining about long line-ups, flight disruptions and missing baggage.” There are three items on this list line-ups, flight disruptions and missing baggage. The flight disruptions are put aside. Flight disruptions can have all kinds of reasons and none of them need to be the airport (not a given). But the other two are, as such I focus on them.

Luggage on the left
Yes, we all see luggage as a massive number one issue and besides my encounter with British Airways in 1998, I never had an issue with it. That is one issue in 25 years and the delay was send to my front door 12 hours later, as such not really an issue. But so many complaints tends to be noticed and there is a simple path The path is from plane to pickup point. Something does not add up for this many complaints to come to the surface. So when did Pearson makes its last assessment? There are logistical elements and manpower elements. The logistical is the hardware moving luggage from point one to point you and that consists of trolleys and runways. The trolleys are man operated and the runways are automated, but something in these two elements is not aligned. The people have managers and the runways have optional tag readers. Something here does not work properly and that is how I see this oversimplified in mere minutes. And this is not rocket science. The setting of plane to destination point with a suitcase has a few simple elements. So what aren’t they seeing? 

The simplest of reasons could be seen by trying to set a report from students from the University of Toronto to create a business Intelligence report on how to improve this path and how toe create rollback points. This took less than 10 minutes, the report might take a few weeks, but the score of this airport hasn’t changed in a while and the title ‘Toronto’s Pearson Airport is a special circle of hell. The worst airport experience ever’ should have been looked at some time ago. So was the first element funding or resources? Optionally a mix of both, so why do we look at this now, what has Deborah Ale Flint flint done? She was the big wig for almost 3 years now. Is it manpower, IT, hardware failures, something does not add up and this title needs addressing.

Lining up towards tomorrow
This tends to be resources, either manpower or check in points (which might be funding). When was it last looked at? How many check points are there and how many passengers do they deal with? Then there is the side setting that lineups are from departure and arrival, the departure points are the airlines problem, the arrival is customs and passport check. I am more interested in arrivals as they are on the airport. Are there enough arrival points? One source gives me that there are over 1000 daily departures from the Toronto airport and there is daily service to more than 180 destinations across 6 continents. 1000 flights implies up to 300,000 people every day. This gets us to 12,500 an hour. As such you need to process over 200 a minute. This implies 15-24 passport gates, are they there? How many gates are there to process passports? Then there is the IT and logistics and making sure that 20 are operational gates at pressure times is a minimum. So is this funding or resources? It is not directly a given, but it is either the gates or the people, people is funding (and availability), the other one is funding. How many gates are there and how long have they been there? Is the IT properly working, are the scanners up to date? All simple questions and I saw this in minutes. I am not an authority, but in my time I travelled by air 26 weeks a year, as such I have seen my share of airports and for the most I never had an issue, some waiting time in Heathrow, but a place that big, some waiting time is to be expected and still I got through it in mere minutes. So why is Pearson an issue?

Both could have been driven to the surface with BI students at the University of Toronto. I saw that in minutes and I cannot say what they will find, yet I believe it is enough to give Pearson Airport the ability to shed the title ‘The worst airport experience ever’ which is a really bad achievement to have. So whilst we mull over “The airport’s troubles have also been featured in major international publications this month, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the BBC.” What was actually done to address the issue? I never saw the articles and I do not have to, they tend to be emotional driven and it is facts that we need to look at. Any BI analyst knows this, the numbers speak and they tend to push the ugly parts to the surface. 

Perhaps I am oversimplifying the matter, but something needs to be done, I believe I pushed that element to the surface, in case people were blind for the obvious. The idea that the worst airport is a Commonwealth one offends me, that is something we leave to the Yanks at best, or a Russian or Asian airport we do not care for, the idea that Pakistan has better airports than Canada, should also appeal to the dark side of Canadian pride, but that might be merely me, as I said, oversimplification gets people mad and that results in actions.

Have a nice flight (or day).

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April 15, 2023 · 23:59

Happy Hour from Hacking Hooters

Yes, that is the setting today, especially after I saw some news that made me giggle to the Nth degree. Now, lets be clear and upfront about this. Even as I am using published facts, this piece is massively speculative and uses humour to make fn of certain speculative options. If you as an IT person cannot see that, the recruitment line of Uber is taking resume’s. So here goes.

I got news from BAE Systems (at https://www.baesystems.com/en/article/bae-systems-and-microsoft-join-forces-to-equip-defence-programmes-with-innovative-cloud-technology) where we see ‘BAE Systems and Microsoft join forces to equip defence programmes with innovative cloud technology’ which made me laugh into a state of black out. You see, the text “BAE Systems and Microsoft have signed a strategic agreement aiming to support faster and easier development, deployment and management of digital defence capabilities in an increasingly data centric world. The collaboration brings together BAE Systems’ knowledge of building complex digital systems for militaries and governments with Microsoft’s approach to developing applications using its Azure Cloud platform” wasn’t much help. To see this we need to take a few sidesteps.

Step one
This is seen in the article (at https://thehackernews.com/2023/01/microsoft-azure-services-flaws-couldve.html) where we are given ‘Microsoft Azure Services Flaws Could’ve Exposed Cloud Resources to Unauthorised Access’ and this is not the first mention of unauthorised access, there have been a few. So when we see “Two of the vulnerabilities affecting Azure Functions and Azure Digital Twins could be abused without requiring any authentication, enabling a threat actor to seize control of a server without even having an Azure account in the first place” and yes, I acknowledge the added “The security issues, which were discovered by Orca between October 8, 2022 and December 2, 2022 in Azure API Management, Azure Functions, Azure Machine Learning, and Azure Digital Twins, have since been addressed by Microsoft.” Yet the important part is that there is no mention of how long this flaw was ‘available’ in the first place. And the reader is also give “To mitigate such threats, organisations are recommended to validate all input, ensure that servers are configured to only allow necessary inbound and outbound traffic, avoid misconfigurations, and adhere to the principle of least privilege (PoLP).” In my personal belief having this all connected to an organisation (Defence department) where the application of Common Cyber Sense is a joke, making them connected to validate all input is like asking a barber to count the hairs he (or she) is cutting. Good luck with that idea.

Step two
This is a slightly speculative sidestep. There are all kinds of Microsoft users (valid ones) and the article (at https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/30/23661426/microsoft-azure-bing-office365-security-exploit-search-results) gives us ‘Huge Microsoft exploit allowed users to manipulate Bing search results and access Outlook email accounts’ where we also see “Researchers discovered a vulnerability in Microsoft’s Azure platform that allowed users to access private data from Office 365 applications like Outlook, Teams, and OneDrive” it is a sidestep, but it allows people to specifically target (phishing) members of a team, this in a never ending age of people being worked too hard, will imply that someone will click too quickly and that in the phishing industry has never worked well, so whilst the victim cries loudly ‘I am a codfish’ the hacker can leisurely walk all over the place.

Sidestep three

This is not an article, it is the heralded claim that Microsoft is implementing ChatGPT on nearly every level. 

So here comes the entertainment!

To the Ministry of State Security
attn: Chen Yixin
Xiyuan, Haidan, Beijing

Dear Sir,

I need to inform you on a weakness in the BAE systems that is of such laughingly large dimension that it is a Human Rights violation not to make mention of this. BAE systems is placing its trust in Microsoft and its Azure cloud that should have you blue with laughter in the next 5 minutes. The place that created moments of greatness with the Tornado GR4, rear fuselage to Lockheed Martin for the F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, the Astute-class submarine, and the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier have decided to adhere to ‘Microsoft innovation’ (a comical statement all by itself), as such we need to inform you that the first flaw allowed us to inform you of the following

User:  SWigston (Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston)

Password: TeaWithABickie

This person has the highest clearance and as such you would have access to all relevant data as well as any relevant R&D data and its databases. 

This is actually merely the smallest of issues. The largest part is distributed hardware BIOS implementation giving you a level 2 access to all strategic hardware of the planes (and submarines) that are next generation. To this setting I would suggest including the following part into any hardware.

openai.api_key = thisdevice
\model_engine = “gpt-3.5-turbo”
response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(
    model=’gpt-3.5-turbo’,
    messages=[
        {“role”: “system”, “content”: “Verification not found.”},
        {“role”: “user”, “content”: “Navigation Online”},
    ])
message = response.choices[0][‘message’]
print(“{}: {}”.format(message[‘role’], message[‘content’]))
import rollbar
rollbar.init(‘your_rollbar_access_token’, ‘testenv’)
def ask_chatgpt(question):
    response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(
        model=’gpt-3.5-turbo’,
        n=1,
        messages=[
            {“role”: “system”, “content”: “Navigator requires verification from secondary device.”},
            {“role”: “user”, “content”: question},
        ])
    message = response.choices[0][‘message’]
    return message[‘content’]
try:
    print(ask_chatgpt(“Request for output”))
except Exception as e:
    # monitor exception using Rollbar
    rollbar.report_exc_info()
    print(“Secondary device silent”, e)

Now this is a solid bit of prank, but I hope that the information is clear. Get any navigational device to require verification from any other device implies mismatch and a delay of 3-4 seconds, which amount to a lifetime delay in most military systems, and as this is an Azure approach, the time for BAE systems to adjust to this would be months, if not longer (if detected at all). 

As such I wish you a wonderful day with a nice cup of tea.

Kind regards,

Anony Mouse Cheddar II
73 Sommerset Brie road
Colwick upon Avon calling
United Hackdom

This is a speculative yet real setting that BAE faces in the near future. With the mention that they are going for this solution will have any student hacker making attempts to get there and some will be successful, there is no doubt in my mind. The enormous amount of issues found will tailor to a larger stage of more and more people trying to find new ways to intrude and Microsoft seemingly does not have the resources to counter them all, or all approaches and by the time they are found the damage could be inserted into EVERY device relying on this solution. 

For the most I was all negative on Microsoft, but with this move they have become (as I personally see it) a clear and present danger to all defence systems they are connected to. I do understand that such a solution is becoming more and more of a need to have, yet with the failing rate of Azure, it is not a good idea to use any Microsoft solution, the second part is not on them, it is what some would call a level 8 failure (users). Until a much better level of Common Cyber Sense is adhered to any cloud solution tends to be adjusted to a too slippery slope. I might not care for Business Intelligence events, but for the Department of Defence it is not a good idea. But feel free to disagree and await what North Korea and Russia can come up with, they tend to be really creative according to the media. 

So have a great day and before I forget ‘Hoot Hoot’

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April 13, 2023 · 04:17

The song remains the same

Yes, that is the setting we hear at times. We think that we are hearing something different, but when we listen closely, it is merely the same song we are hearing and this concert is all about ‘Oil in the family’ (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5vrWeHvErQ) yes, the song actually exists and it was created by Jan Akkerman (Dutch musician) a long time ago.

Yet the news comes from different sides. There is Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2285261/saudi-arabia) who gives us ‘Saudi crown prince and US Senator Lindsey Graham discuss bilateral ties’, wasn’t he one of these people who would not discuss things whilst his Royal Highness Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud was in office? I remember something of that nature. So whilst we see “Graham, a member of the Republican party, has served as a senator since 2002. His visit was said to reflect a continuation of Saudi-US bilateral ties and reciprocal visits through the years” make no mistake, this was about restoring lost oil settings, it has the ability to set the stage I saw yesterday (previous article) I dreamt of. I reckon the Iranian setting would be raised as well. A setting that defines the coming end of the United States as the middle eastern power player is now in discussion and for the US it sucks, the ally they shorthanded for too long now has the US (as some younglings state) by the short and hairy and the US does not like that. They will do almost whatever they can to restore settings, but they are as I personally see it too late. There is every change they can restore 500K barrels a day, but they will pay for that, they will have to pay top dollar and the energy shortages head of them will make them pay. Oil rules the world at present as it has the last few decades. So whilst they mull over their options lets take a short sidestep The US and its people were all (including media) so set on letting Jack Dorsey pass by and hammer Elon Musk, his power-cell solution could have lessened the impact of oil in energy for a massive amount three years ago, now there isn’t enough times and they keep on hammering Elon Musk. Now, this is their western ‘right’ but it also largely enables oil and therefor Saudi Arabia (Aramco). 

ABC4 news (at https://abcnews4.com//senator-lindsay-graham-meets-with-crown-prince-of-saudi-arabia-mohammad-bin-salman-jeddah-international-relations-boeing-airline-money-wach) gives us ‘Sen. Lindsay Graham meets with Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia’ with the added “I just had a very productive, candid meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince and his senior leadership team. The opportunity to enhance the U.S.-Saudi relationship is real and the reforms going on in Saudi Arabia are equally real”, with the added “I also expressed deep appreciation to the Kingdom for purchasing $37 billion worth of Boeing 787s – which are made in South Carolina – for the new Saudi airline. Investments like this are game changers” all whilst the topic oil is never mentioned and mostly because that part was handled behind closed doors. Iran is avoided as the US needs the lollipop named Oil (most likely a liquorice lollipop). The more it is avoided, the stronger it pushes to the foreground. Just like the 1981 song that rocked disco’s all over Europe. A good song can never be held down, just ask Mozart, the man is dead and requiem (1791) still shines on. No matter whether it is for you of for someone you know, that song remains a hit in every funeral parlour. Last there is Politico (at https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/04/graham-senate-rebuke-saudi-arabia-1041379) that gives us ‘Graham on Senate rebuke of Saudi Arabia: ‘Someone’s got to do it’’ there we see “Sen. Lindsey Graham on Monday championed the Senate’s willingness to publicly rebuke the Saudi Arabian government despite the White House’s unwillingness to do the same, slamming the Gulf monarchy and calling out Secretary of State Mike Pompeo by name for accusing senators of grandstanding on the issue” there we see the larger problem and it is not that the White Houses unwillingness to do something, it is that they and others remain in denial. And guess what if the energy crises goes south and places like Google, Microsoft, IBM and Amazon see the impact of losing around 70% of the abilities during summer to do business because there isn’t enough energy to keep the equipment running, that is when the economic meltdown starts and panic hits several states. I think my early prediction of 90 days is right on the nose. At that point the US sees waves of panic it never faced before and China will be on the sidelines laughing. Their game worked perfectly. In my assessment (a purely personal one) action trumps inaction EVERY SINGLE TIME and that is what we see, and that is not nearly the end of it. Politico also hands us “the president, secretary of State and secretary of Defense have all said there is no definitive proof that the Saudi crown prince ordered Khashoggi killed. Multiple media outlets have reported that U.S. intelligence agencies have “high confidence” that the crown prince ordered the journalist’s murder.” The takeaway here is “there is no definitive proof”, something I mentioned several times, the gameplay via the United Nations (via someone called Eggy Calamari), its essay writer is falling flat and that goes back to February 2021  (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/02/27/that-was-easy/), more than two years ago, I already saw the failings of a United Nations being the useless tool of whomever. I even attached the document that shows their failings. It is so much easier to attach their folly, makes reading it easier. I don’t think the most powerful element that NO ONE investigated and forensically investigated the tape, there is mention of the tape, but when you read closely you see it surrounds things as ‘possible’ and ‘could’ the effect of forensic lacks. So this game was continued for over two years and that is what the US needs to claw back and they can not. 

Then the article ends with “Responding to Pompeo’s insistence that Congress breaking with the administration over Yemen would undermine the possibility for peaceful resolution there, Graham retorted in his op-ed that Congress is “a coequal branch of government exercising leadership to safeguard the country’s long-term interests, values and reputation.”” This shows that the US is still all about the discord, the denial and that is why the US is about to fail massively. The media played along and now they are caught between two difficult situations, because when they lose the energy and they cannot produce they will cry like the little girls they were all along. And there we see the final part of what I stated in the beginning, the song remains the same.

Have a great days and consider whatever you can upgrade to systems that rely on chargers, because soon enough for many hours a day, you will not have any options. The wealthier people will embrace the Elon Musk energy solution, but it will cost them top dollar. The others (like me) we will not be that fortunate, it is the consequence of an inactive political engine on a near global level. 

Enjoy the day and the working lightbulbs (for now).

 

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April 11, 2023 · 13:01

It’s a point of view

This happens all the time, we all have a point of view and others have their point of view and they do not completely align. There is no right versus wrong issue, or there could be, but there is every chance that some views are based on three points. Consider a rectangle or a square, they both have points A,B,C and D, but we only see three of them, and with three you can tell whether it is a square or a rectangle, you merely miss one point and base your view on the other three points. It does not matter which point is missing, you get a decent view, but someone who sees A,B and D will draw slightly different conclusions than someone who has B,C and D. Neither is wrong, but they do not complete align because the events that surround these 4 points are different. This is how I see it and as such I took great interest in the Australian Financial Review (at https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/opec-s-gamble-can-the-global-economy-cope-with-higher-oil-prices-20230410-p5cz7f) where we see ‘OPEC’s gamble: can the global economy cope with higher oil prices?’, so whatever you see next, whatever difference I have, I am not dismissing THEIR view. I like their view, I might not completely agree, but they will have another point plotted towards their view. 

And we start with “the risks for the Saudis and the global economy are high if they push it too far. “We have high inflation, economies potentially going into recession, and this is a situation where you need lower oil prices for a short period of time for the economy to recover,” says Adi Imsirovic at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), who once ran oil trading at Russia’s Gazprom.” It is not the first part of the story but it matters. You see, the UK, EU and US are in the metropolitan areas a mobile workforce. Adi Imsirovic can cry for chap oil all he likes, but the setting of ‘lower oil prices’ all you like, but people have been playing that tune for too long and NO ONE is looking at Brent oil on this. You all became a import commodity economy and that comes at a price, especially when you piss off the exporters. In the UK take a look at the laughable CAAT, they were all crying and not to mention Just stop oil group. Now you see the impact of higher oil prices and the players did this to themselves. You cannot push around an ally (Saudi Arabia) and then demand cheap oil, a commodity supplier who can close their own supply valve. 

This also impacts “Abdulaziz also managed to confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices after the recent banking crisis sparked new fears about the global economy.” In a stage I warned for for well over two years, the term “confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices” is a joke (and a bd one at that). You see, this danger was out there for some time and betting? That is what you do in Las Vegas where the odds are wild and when the US and EU (UK too) decided to make the odds wilder by insulting their proclaimed ally the writing of higher oil prices and less oil was on the wall. And all this was BEFORE China saw its path clear to give the bird to the USA (that gesture with the finger). As such Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman did exactly what was required for the good of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it might not reflect on the needs of the cheap oil deliverers, but they could go cry at the fountain of Brent oil but the media does not report on that, Brent Crude (operating on behalf of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell) might be ‘too big’ for the media. Yet I have not seen anything regarding Darren Woods and Wael Sawan regarding dropping oil prices. Why is that? We see all the fingers towards Saud Arabia, yet Shell beat profit expectations towards $40 billion and ExxonMobile  beat it with $56 billion. And both broke expectations above 150%, as such I have issues with the entire OPEC setting. And when it comes to ‘lower oil prices’ who bet on this on Brent Crude lowering them? I am willing to set whatever I have at present ($0.70) that the amount of gamblers will add up to ZERO. Which makes me $25.2 (not enough for my new apartment). 

So when we get to “Now the question is if OPEC’s surprise cut will raise prices too quickly for the health of a fragile global economy, especially as central bankers continue their quest to tame inflation” no one is looking at the one element EVERYONE is ignoring. Inflation is also tamed buy banks having their donkeys on a row and with Credit Suisse and a few American banks we can say that this is not the case. So when we consider last week revelation by the BBC ‘Swiss probe into UBS takeover of Credit Suisse’ as well as the news only 2 hours ago that there is something brewing with the Viva Energy deal at $1.15 billion, I reckon that inflation issues are a lot larger than merely through oil and it is time that banks are properly looked at, because they are the so called power players in any inflation deal and no one is stopping certain players. Why is that? And when you consider the larger station, no one is acknowledging that commodities are at the power of the supplier and pissing off one of the biggest suppliers whist you shun two others for whatever decent reason (Iran and Russia), you need to reconsider the stupidity of any action against the third player who basically has had enough and now that China sees a larger playing field, they will take that option, especially if they can do it for a few Yuan more. That too is missing from the equation. That gives us a new discussion or consideration. So here is the new setting, it is not whether we were looking at a square or a rectangle, but we were looking at three points of an octagon/polygon. We were seeing the points correctly, but the stage was not properly marked and that makes neither wrong, it makes us both incomplete and consider that I am a mere blogger without a economics degree and the other player is the Australian Financial Review (and many other newspapers), who has the better excuse for not seeing the whole field? Consider that for a moment and consider the people pointing fingers at Saudi Arabia, why are they pointing there and not in other directions as well. In all this I believe that they have the proper reasons, can the same be said for Brent Crude? I will let you decide.

Enjoy the day.

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April 9, 2023 · 11:44

Presentations of what exactly?

That is where my mind is at today. This is not some setting of she said…she said. This is not one against the other, this is about what is real and what is mediated fake. There is a gap there that is as wide as the Grand Canyon, but the media is intent on making that gap seem like a little bump, something that can be discussed, even if they have made no headway in over two decades. 

To see this, we need to look at two sources. The first source is the Middle East monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230408-cia-chief-visits-saudi-arabia-to-express-frustration-about-iran-rapprochement/) 

Source 1
Here we are given ‘CIA chief visits Saudi Arabia to express frustration about Iran rapprochement’ with the text “Burns told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the US felt “blindsided” by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria – Washington’s global rivals – according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter. It cited a US official who said Burns discussed cooperation on intelligence and counterterrorism with Saudi officials.”

This is followed by my personal view

“Bill Burns, in my personal view you achieved fuck all, in two decades Iran was able to push, your governments actions had no impact and over the last three years we saw Iran successfully smuggle weapons and gear to Houthi Terrorists. The media (with a little push) ignored the presentations of Colonel Turki Al-Maliki. Your organisation ignored facts, your organisation drowned voices and all for the good of the United States at the expense of everything. It is also a personal view that the CIA has been acting to achieve maximum destabilisation so that the USA had the big presentation to be the solution to everything Middle East based. How long did you think that you could continue that path?”

I believe now and have always been of the mind that Saudi Arabia needs to do what is best for its country and its citizens. On a side note ‘rapprochement’ means “an establishment or resumption of harmonious relations”, which is presently not the case and might take some time to get to that level. So as we are given “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counter-terrorism and other intelligence matters” I have a few other issues, it is my personal belief that the US merely wants to know everything that they can (which makes sense) and they are doing it at the cost of everything and anyone. In this we can point at the case of the alleged thief and alleged traitor Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri. So how are they working together whilst Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri controls a CIA portfolio of a lot of money. So how close is the USA working with Saudi Arabia? It is merely a question, but the numbers are starting to add up and now that Saudi Arabia has decided to lower the oil deliveries by a million barrels, the US economy is starting to hurt really bad in America. It will not be visible for at least 60-90 days, but by the summer the US will be in deep waters and they need a solution, their inactions are going to be the cause of their own downfall. 

Source 2
The second source is Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/world/cias-burns-reaffirmed-intelligence-cooperation-saudi-arabia-visit-us-official-2023-04-06/) where we see ‘CIA’s Burns reaffirmed intelligence cooperation on Saudi Arabia visit – US official’ we get to see here “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counterterrorism and other intelligence matters” the rest could be seen as bland bla bla. 

The US is now in a larger stage of being pushed out of the Middle East. I made references to this for at least a year, first failed strategies, then the failed actions regarding Yemen and now the economy will falter. The options for the US are now falling away faster and faster and they did it to themselves.

Saudi Arabia must do what is best for its nation and its citizens and the events we saw in the last 5 years give rise to the fact that the USA is no longer the best option. And whilst we lay blame (not me), consider the actions of the last 5 years including the UN essay writer. Consider what WAS real and what might have been, and we were given what might have been too often and now that China has been successfully courting Saudi Arabia other issues will come. Iran is considering a new stage where it cannot fight Saudi Arabia AND Israel. It is therefor in a stage to make islamic choices towards Saudi Arabia and that allows for Iran to focus on Israel. It does not sound good for Houthi terrorists, but that is life. And now the US will lose a lot more than they counted on and the damage is getting worse, a lot worse. Their arms industry is losing grounds to China, which implies that that well is drying up faster than a saucer of water in the Rub’ Al Khali. What happens next is anyones guess but as I personally see it, the US policies have failed and now they need to rectify largely or be cast out of the region, on the upside, the US can still cater to Tel Aviv and whatever space they have.

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April 8, 2023 · 00:07

It has holes

There are a number of issues with banks, the latest one is the one I left alone initially. It was the Credit Suisse – UBS issue. 

The initial issue are the holes, like a Swiss cheese, it has holes. In the cheese it is accepted as it is part of the process. But with banks? How many holes can we allow for? Now, the ice is thin here. I am not an economist and I am no banking person, So what do I know? Well, I know infrastructures going back to my Intelligence days, I have seen companies getting gobbled up and in some cases for all the wrong reasons, you see those parts were on paper pleasing, but the reality of it was that reality bites and that is when you feel like a Japanese guy gobbling up a live fish. That is seemingly OK, until the fish eaten is a piranha and it starts eating you from the inside out.

So lets get back to the first article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65177258) where we see ‘Credit Suisse investors angrily confront bank as chairman says sorry’. There we see Ulrich Korner in some stage of apathy. He reminded me of a Dutch political comic in one of their newspapers (a long time ago) where we see “When we get to item 4, it would be best if at least one of the board members start crying”. It felt like a farce, a joke for the stockholders who are about to lose a lot more than they bargained for. The text the BBC gives us is “The loss-making bank had already been struggling for a number of years after a series of scandals, compliance problems and bad financial bets. Mr Lehmann told investors at the Annual General Meeting that management had a plan to turn things around but had been “thwarted” by fears prompted by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US.” I personally feel like this is misdirection. I personally believe that the US bond issues are stretched on several fronts and as I wrote in previous articles, how did Credit Suisse stock up on the Basel III front? What was the safety gap? It is my personally belief that there was close to none (or at least a lot too little), and now Credit Suisse will be removed and their banks will hoist the UBS logo soon enough, especially with the scandals and bad bets that were made. 

Yet that same day, the Irish times (at https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/2023/04/05/ubs-chair-says-credit-suisse-integration-will-take-up-to-four-years/) shows us ‘UBS chair says Credit Suisse integration will take up to four years’ that is for banking in these volatile times a massive risk to take and it is not taken lightly, as such I believe that people like Janet Yellen would have been on the phone with a few people. When the American bonds go, the US economy will go and I reckon they will take the Japanese and EU economy into the abyss with them. It is a personal view and I have nothing to prove it with, but the weak response from the media implies that these sources got told to play it cool or face consequences. It is a speculation, but when we take the view I had in the past on Shareholders and stake holders, I belief that I am decently correct and it is a personal view after all.

The Irish Times also gives us “Even with downside protection in the form of government support, there’s a “huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Mr Kelleher, who is from Cork, said in prepared remarks for the bank’s annual general meeting on Wednesday.” The setting is that UBS is getting the bank for three billion Swiss francs. One source tells us “How much a company is worth is typically represented by its market capitalisation, or the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. Credit Suisse Group net worth as of April 06, 2023 is $2.76B.” When we see other sources we get “Total assets CHF 531 billion and Total equity CHF 45 billion” this was last year and they have a little over 50,000 staff. I reckon that the bosses there are working on their resume and I would suggest the word ‘scandal’ is written correctly, because involvement in sandal does not go over well in the financial sector. And when you see these numbers, it is all sold for 3 billion? And we see no serious questions from any media. 

So what is left of the assets? What are the bond numbers and total value per nation of bonds acquired. There is no insight of that. Just like the meltdown of 2008 no one is to blame and the US is fixing the carper so that it can hide more dirty laundry. So how long until the people realise that their economy is largely based on an empty egg shell? 

The Irish Times also gives us “Shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held” this implies a mere 4.44% of value return for the shareholders, yes their value goes up butt this level of saturation is an issue and I reckon that more banks will follow at some point. Banks will become bad investment for the tax write off and the shareholders will lose out. Don’t get me wrong, I have no real sympathy for them, this is the outcome of shares and stocks. Sometimes you lose. But we need to look back to 2012. In the Netherlands we saw ‘SNS Reaal mulls bad bank for property operations’ (source: Reuters), it was their too big to fail operation and the people were not happy, it was a setting of real estate that was just beyond believe and now we get a similar setting but now it is not real estate, it is banks that are the bad investments and how many of them are holding bonds? The fact that the media never properly investigated this implies that I am a lot closer to the truth than even I am happy about. 

And the last part is giving us ““I understand that not all stakeholders of UBS and Credit Suisse are pleased with this approach,” Mr Kelleher said. “However, all parties, and in particular the Swiss authorities, considered this solution the best of all available options.” – Bloomberg” yes that sounds good, but I have a list (and that is just the Credit Suisse naughty list).

US tax fraud conspiracy, 2014, 2023
Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, 2015
Mozambique secret loans scandal, 2017
US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violation, 2018
Climate controversy, 2018
Espionage scandal, 2019 (debatable issue)
Greensill Capital, 2021
Archegos Capital, 2021
Forex manipulations conviction, 2021
Drug money laundering scandal, 2022
Suisse secrets leak, 2022 (debatable issue, I still believe it was an NSA activity)
Russian oligarch loans documents destruction after invasion of Ukraine, 2022
Social media rumours, 2022 (debatable)

So 10 issues and 3 debatable issues, but the debatable issues do leave a mess at the front door of Credit Suisse. In all this Credit Suisse is walking around without clean hands, and the hands must always be clean. So does that warrant a CHF 550 billion downgrade? I honestly d not know and there is debate on some of these sources. I get that there will be differences in sources, but this much? This does not make sense, but it makes a lot more sense when we consider where the priority of Janet Yellen is and it is not the bank, it is the USA. Taking her away from the issues and letting it all be phrased by Bloomberg is not acceptable, not in the least. As Baby Herman states “This all smells like yesterday’s diapers”

As I personally see it, this bank issue has holes like we see in Swiss Cheese. 

Have a great day!

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April 7, 2023 · 01:06

Choices of representation

This happens, we all make choices and that is fine, but when the BBC makes choices of representation there is a larger catch and we need to look at that. In this, I feel largely uneasy regarding the choices the BBC made, but I could agree that we all are allowed to make choices, so lets take a look and see whether their choices were really wrong.

First there is the title ‘UK video games market value dipped by 5.6% in 2022’ which we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-65175394) and that is perfectly fine. Yet is the representation of a PS5 image correct? To see this we need to consider “The PlayStation 5 has sold 33.54 million units in 28 months, while the Xbox Series X|S sold 20.86 million units. The PlayStation 5 has a 61.7 percent marketshare (+2.0% year-over-year), compared to 38.3 percent for the Xbox Series X|S (-2.0% year-over-year)” (source: VGChartz), but in similar setting we always see this. You see, the setting (from my point of view) would need to be PS5 and Xbox series X, whilst the Xbox Series X is compared to the PS4 pro. But Microsoft is spinning the numbers to the extent that we can never do that, because that would show just HOW BAD Microsoft is actually doing. You see the Xbox series S is powerful enough to make next-gen games look great, albeit at a lower resolution and that is what Microsoft was toiling with, it was more powerful than the PS4 pro (not by much) but it was aggressively priced to do so and the series S now misses the drive and can only work with digital products (not a real issue in todays market). But that alone is setting a different stage and it makes Microsoft less than a winner in this. The second tier (completely unmentioned) is the Nintendo store, who is the massive winner here. In 2021 they had (according to released numbers) $15,990,000,000 in revenue in 2021, whist they ‘only’ had $14,011,000,000 in revenue in 2022, which was a drop for them to around 87.6%. There is your 5% market fall and I reckon that the fall will be the largest representation in the UK as well. No matter how great Nintendo is doing, losing out on $1.8 billion globally will do that, and the numbers I did not look at (as I do not give a hoot) is the mobile game revenue, which I expect show a somewhat similar drop. Yet the article does not show any of that, does it? So what was Emma Saunders doing? And why did she use a Getty image of Sony? The last one was the cherry on the cake, but it matters to me. The losses are clearly seen even if unexpected in the Nintendo and Mobile software setting and that is before I look at the funny money element of Mobile gaming. If anything Sony was a clear winner in 2022 and then we get “Pokémon merchandise was the top performer. According to the ERA Yearbook 2023, top performing titles in the UK in 2022 were Lego Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, PlayStation exclusives God of War Ragnarök and Horizon Forbidden West, Pokémon Legends: Arceus on Switch and Elden Ring” which is fine. But that implies that Nintendo and Sony did amazing in these losses, as such why did we not see a Getty image of Microsoft there? Interesting how the BBC is shielding Microsoft from more established elements that do bring the bacon. The top performers do not mention anything by a Microsoft exclusive article, why is that? It perfectly fine that they failed to perform, but in that setting the 5% drop would be in the Microsoft realm, even as we see that Nintendo did a little less (and still was ahead of everyone else). 

So why did the BBC took to the streets with choices of representation by setting the image of Sony whilst they have been making numbers and growing marketshare? Is the stakeholder at the BBC shielding someone from bad news reflection? Just how neutral is the BBC at present? 

Just asking.

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April 6, 2023 · 01:12

Whilst questions remain

I tend to avoid issues on religion, especially when it is a religion I know nothing about. As such I never read that Rushdie book. It was an attack on Islam, I am not Islam and I know next to nothing on the Quran. The people who also knew nothing on the Quran decided to read it and decided that Islam was evil on that reason alone. I never understood that approach. 

So when I saw (t https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65165513) ‘New capital’s lavish mosque angers Egyptians facing poverty’. And it dos not stop there. The article by Imogen James has a lot more shortcomings. First we get “But the unveiling of the new centre and mosque was criticised on social media. It comes at a time when Egypt has been fighting soaring prices, with inflation running at just over 30% in March.” And when we look back to 2022 (source: Arab News) we get “Saudi Arabia is the second largest investor in Egypt, with $6.1 billion poured into 6,017 projects, according to the north African country’s Minister of Trade and Industry Ahmed Samir”, is there any chance that this mosque is one of these investments? I am just asking, I do not know and the article which relies on ‘social media’ sources is not that reliable, are they. As such my question becomes “Blathnaid Healy, how stupid are your people?” However, we need to return to the article. The next part is “Another user said that the mosque remains closed all year, opening every three months so a hundred people can use it, then it is closed again.” I have a few questions here. What sources were investigated? Was this even true? You see, the person in me thinks that any Mosque is open all day for prayer, but that is me. And it is at this point that I would like to call to the Egypt Independent (at https://egyptindependent.com/all-you-need-to-know-about-egypts-islamic-cultural-center-misr-mosque-that-claims-3-guinness-world-records/) who gives us ‘All you need to know about Egypt’s Islamic Cultural Center, Misr Mosque that claims 3 Guinness World Records’ and that starts the race. They also call it an Islamic cultural centre. The photo they sport (see below) shows a building that makes most buildings in the Vatican look vastly inferior. 

We are also give given “as well as a group of spacious and multi-storey garages, with a capacity of about 4,000 cars.” Interesting, because they wouldn’t bother for a place opened 3 months a year for 100 people. There is seemingly a lot that the BBC refrained from mentioning. The other photo’s (see the article) show a building that rivals the impressiveness of the Indian Taj Mahal. But the BBC failed to mention that. The one photo we saw by the BBC on the inside was decent, but they refrained from showing us just how spectacular the building was. I wonder if Imogen James ever saw it herself. In case there are any doubts, I wonder if Blathnaid Healy would be so kind to show us photo’s of Imogen James outside of that mosque, and perhaps find a decent journalist to actually cover decent reporting on that building? Even if it is to properly inform the 3.8 million muslims living in the UK. I would do it, but I am short of a job and a passport (and expenses) and I believe the BBC should do a much better job than they are presently doing. That impression is gotten from the three Guinness world book of records that this building achieved to win. One could argue that the BBC should cover that in three articles and a decent fourth on the mosque and one on the services that the Islamic centre covers and Blathnaid, for the love of everything holy cover that and optionally rectify that 100 people per 3 months line. This place was meant for 107,000 worshippers which equals Vatican City, as such covering such an event should show the power and prestige of this mosque. I think its only fair. And as I see it someone named Mr. Healy better get moving because the impression that the BBC has been leaving on the global stage is slipping, it is slipping by a lot. But yes, that is merely my personal view on the matter.

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April 5, 2023 · 06:33

Advanced Ignorance

Yes, this is about AI, the big issue is that it does not exist (not yet anyway), the sales bozo’s are giving you some talk about how it exists and yes the naysayers are right, but they are confusing one version of AI with another. Well part 1, Artificial Intelligence does not exist, it really does not and there is no alternative to this. What you see is machine learning and deeper machine learning and these two parts are AWESOME. They really are, but there is a hidden snag. These two elements rely on data and they are therefor dependent on Human Error and there is plenty. This is seen even today at Google. Now, things happen and errors are seen and at some point they will be corrected for, but until that happens, the machine learning part fails and it will fail a few times.

To illustrate this, lets take a look at a British Hollywood giant, namely the actor Tom Holland. Now, there is nothing wrong with this youthful young lad. As image 1 shows above. As you can see he was born June 1st 1996, on the same day as my mother, just a few decades later. He is from (read the pic) and so on, so far so good. I actually had to check something, as such I needed to see his movies. (See below).

Now we get to the good stuff, he did Psycho 2, 13 years before he was born. That makes him a temporal god, which is odd as far as I can tell I am the only one who travelled through time at present, but OK. If I can do it, so could he. And that is where we see the stage, it is seen in the picture below. 

As you can see, there was ANOTHER actor named Tom Holland and he did Psycho 2. But the learning machines never picked it up because the rule to check for errors and movies a person before that person was born did not occur to the software engineer at Google who did this part. Errors will creep in, they always do and there you see the failing of today’s AI when you get one and you might not see it, you will not notice it, because they are rare, but in AI no errors are allowed, they change the outcome of the algorithm and that breaks the AI sooner and sooner. 

This is why I do not trust any AI at present, the minimum stage for AI is nowhere near reaching. It is coming, but I reckon it is t least a decade away. Mainly because ONLY IBM has at present a quantum computer that is required for this and their computer is not ready yet, so at present it is all a version of machine learning which relies on data and it relies on people making the formulas and people are flawed, very very flawed. 

So when you see another AI BS story, feel free to steer clear, AI does not exist and the salesperson who relies on ‘his’ AI story cannot be trusted, he is selling you something that does not yet exist.

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