Category Archives: Military

Media is done for

This is what I have been saying all along. Whoring for digital dollars comes at a price. Now, if it was only me no one would care. Yet at this point the stage is altering for the media. The Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/gaza-crisis-has-become-global-media-war-uae-minister) gives us ‘Gaza crisis has become global media war: UAE minister’ with the byline “Al Gergawi called out the double standards and political agendas hindering true resolution of the Palestinian cause” It is a little less complex than that. You see media is exploiting anything they can to gain the digital dollar. Clicks are everything and as more and more media is aiming for that goal there is no place for political agenda’s other than the local ones protecting the media through their political connections (at home). This is what I regard to be the stakeholders game. As such this article touches me as it covers what I have been saying all along. 

So is it more correct?
That remains a danger. To seek out those who hold your view is what many do, but it is a dangerous path. If their (or your) setting is showing a flaw or is only partially correct, the premise becomes a dangerous one. You must always be able and willing to go back to the drawing board to verify and to double check whatever you believe in. It is essential that you can be critical of your own ideas. Mohammed Abdullah Al Gergawi, UAE Minister of Cabinet Affairs also gives us “This war was not only between the Palestinians and Israel. We also witnessed a global diplomatic war, international polarisation, and a global media war. Today, war is not won on the battlefield but rather in the media field, as he who has the strongest narrative shall become the winner.” In this I would like to add that it is not merely ‘the strongest narrative’, it is who employs the better and better connected stakeholders. They can win you the narrative war. It is not unlike the stakeholders on Capitol Hill. At some point the media figured out that these people could wage their media war FOR them and get kudos points that way. The winner then gets benefits and is more likely to gain the iterative advantage over digital dollars through clicks. The flammable populist voices are merely one side of this. To see this you need to be able to see how digital dollars are gained. How clicks are obtained. At present that is flaming for Gaza, but make no mistake, the moment that this changes to Israel all the narratives will alter accordingly and the media will have no issues with changing the voice. They will hide behind ‘The people are voicing this’. 

Gergawi in continuation gives us ““In 2004, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum gave a speech at this very forum about the need for finding a just solution for the Palestinian case based on international law,” he recalled. “Today, 20 years later, the case is still the most pressing issue in the region and the world.”” As such when we see that the digital click war has been raging on since 2015 the stage alters slightly but does not changes. The stakeholders of then are the same stakeholders of now, their game merely changed. They now have media moguls in their pockets as well. So who was stalling in those first 10 years? 

And this gets the added ““All the states that ask for this solution, I want to ask you, what did you do in the last 10 years to have this solution,” he asked of them. “Almost nothing. Since 2014, there has been no communication to solve the issue. If you were silent for ten years, why would you come back to the two-state solution? Just to prove to the world you are doing something?”” That is the question. I personally believe that there was a second war going on. The one I mentioned, but these same stakeholders were serving more than two masters. You see there is one part that remains unmentioned. I have made mention of this a few times before. I was not outspoken about this as I cannot prove it. There is no purpose served by howling against the storm. It tends to be pointless, it is never heard and it deflates your own energy levels. It is my personal view that the third war brewing under all this is (a speculated view) war served by Strasbourg and Washington DC. They need destabilisation of the middle east. Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the three points of pressure that the west required. The moment the Middle East realises that they are better off without the west, that is the moment fear strikes in the hearts of power players in Strasbourg and Washington DC. In all this the actions of inactions regarding Palestine start making sense. There is a clear need. America (and EU) require cheap oil. If they cannot get that, their economies implode. Their commodity needs are fuelling a transient and mobile workforce and without that these two places will have a whole new range of internal problems. 

The problem is how do you prove that? That is less easy to answer. The press is no longer impartial, they are partial to their digital dollars and will take whatever they can at all our expenses. By seeing several sources you get a slightly better view, but it is a filtered view and places like the ICIJ are a joke. They too rely on the media and clicks to be seen, so the story is adjusted accordingly.

And there is no solution, not until you get a real verifiable and reliable source, as such the press and media are no longer one. It has become a populist game for digital clicks.

On a sidenote
This is a little awkward, you see my offensive against Washington DC is taking a turn as this article and a few others made me see a new option. The match between Blogger (me) and DARPA is at present 4-0. I speculatively just saw a new way to find hundreds if not thousands of terrorists. Making the score 5-0 for yours truly and that is a personal goal worth winning for. It might never get me a dime, but to knock (at some point) on haven’s door stating that I made DARPA my bitch and defeated them five over nil is very tempting for the ego, lets be clear about that. In the end that match was my ego having a great time. The problem is that this new approach needs the NSA to wake up. They are the source of interest when it comes to layer one (hardware) issues and if I am correct that setting should be pushed through iOS and Android making them one of the few parties who could solve this. The article opened a door. There is a side I do not completely agree with even if what they say was true. It links to a few other parts that are not mentioned here and that got me thinking. What if we see both sides of that coin? Now, when it is on its back, one side remains invisible, but what happens when that coin falls on a mirror? If will not reveal that side either, but what if a mirror is a reflection of itself? That got me thinking on the sides that do not speak, to focus on the side that can speak and that gave me the idea. If my thought is correct you get more than an image, you get a timeline of total events and with that GEOINT becomes the power core of that setting. A transient force still requires deployment which is part of that solution. My mind remains racing towards that goal (my fifth goal over DARPA). I know it is selfish in nature and even more so when it is not bout money but about the ego. At times we need to feed that monster. The best thing anyone can do is feed it when it serves the best purpose and not to overfeed that monster. I get that, but feed it now and the voice of ego dies down enough, leave it alone and its voice will drown all other voices and that is the lesson the media never learned. They went from Cash is King to ‘Cash is king in the empire of clicks and clickers’ it was nothing more than self defeating short sightedness. 

It’s Saturday for me, Vancouver is still 12 hours away from the weekend. Enjoy yours.

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A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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Here come the drums

We were also given “The Netherlands should not think our safety is guaranteed because we are 1,500 kilometres away [from Russians].” I tend to agree. The fact that several nations are now sending weapons to Russia is also a factor. Russian junk is about to be replaced by working materials. The Ukrainians might have sunk a boatload of drones, but that is not all that is going there, is it? 

In addition we were given “The Netherlands is one of the founding members of NATO and is a staunch backer of Ukraine. Last week, outgoing PM Mark Rutte announced that his country would be sending Volodymyr Zelensky 18 F-16 fighter jets to fight the Russians.” Russia is unlikely to take kindly to that and there is no indication just how ready Germany and Poland are for an direct conflict with Russian forces, that 1,500,000 meter barrier is not going to last long is it? The best outcome is to make sure that the Ukraine wins this war, but at the speed that Russia is bombing the Ukraine, there might not be much left of it in the next 26 weeks. After that? I fully believe that the Ukrainians will fight for every inch of the Ukraine, but when there is nothing left one of the few options remaining is to fight Russia in Russia and that is a very different war, one they are less equipped for. 

As such I believe there is a lot of merit to the words of Martin Wijnen. The fact that the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands is pro-Russian will not help matters much, although the moment one assault on the Netherlands takes place he better change direction, or become the first Regent to face the deadly mobs since the execution of Johan de Witt on August 20th 1672. But not to worry, I feel certain that the media, YouTubers and TikTokkers will be there to cover it all in 4K.

The words of the general sound true. There is a worry and the worry should not be trivialised. No matter how it continues with the Ukraine, Russia needs a win, it needs one soon and Putin needs one to appease his Kremlin cronies. 

We have seen the damage that the Ukraine has dealt Russia, but they have a lot more and some of it actually works. My biggest fear is that Putin takes a lesson from the Hitler playbook and takes out a city in the Netherlands, not unlike was done on May 14th 1940. To think of that, how long until France, Germany and Belgium face that very same danger? I have no idea, and I reckon the rest of the world would instantly turn against Russia, still, there are too many ‘what if’s’ in that equation and I (for the most) hate what if settings. It fuels too much super good, or super bad thinking, extremes away from the expected and most unexpected norms. It fuels the wrong part of the thinker, which I personally believe is never a good thing. 

In all this General Wijnen is not alone in this setting, but I do believe too many nations remain silent on the matter. Germany spoke out for strengthening their armed forces, but in this setting the United Kingdom did not, neither (as far as I am aware) did France and for the most their Legion Etrangere is the only one ready to face whatever comes their way. And these 9,000 troops, their Legio Patria Nostra (or as I gigglingly call them, the well educated fathers of the night) could deal with about 40% of the total of Russian forces, but what would be left for the Dutch? OK, still enough, but France and Belgium better get ready to consider the darker setting of Europe as we consider the words of General Wijnen. 

So now on a lighter tone, it is time for the same joke I have been telling friends for well over a decade.

Enjoy this final day and stay safe around fireworks.

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In other news

There is news we do not get to see, because it is (my  speculation) in the interest of the western media to not show the better side of Saudi Arabia. I wrote about this particular issue before. But yesterday (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2431656/saudi-arabia) I saw ‘Saudi project clears 826 Houthi mines in Yemen in a week’. There we are given “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared since the start of the initiative in 2018”. In addition, the article also gives us “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared, this include 269,250 items of unexploded ordnance, 142,455 anti-tank mines, 7,943 improvised explosive devices, and 6,442 anti-personnel mines” the larger station here isn’t merely the numbers. It becomes “Where do Houthi forces get these 426,090 mines?” You see, they have no infrastructure to create or manufacture these mines. They also lack funds to acquire them. I still see Iran as the great evil here, but in this I admit that this is speculation bordering presumption. The western media steers clear of this, why is that? The second part is that 826 mines a eeek implies 118 mines a day, that is nothing short of miraculous. Especially if you consider what is involved with mine removal operations. As I personally see it Saudi aid agency KS relief and its managing director Ousama Algosaibi, is due some high Saudi award and the west better acknowledge this part of the equation. The western press is already disregarded as a reputable news source and it is not getting better for them any day soon. 

There are several sides of this event that the western media have ignored and they have ignored it for the longest of times. So how much longer until the media is regarded as nothing more than a courtesan for digital dollars? This event matters. Houthi forces, Iranian backed 

Houthi forces no less have made larger parts of Yemen unliveable. Up to 5 million have been forced to flee their homes and to a larger degree due to mines. That gives us 15% of the population. Now, not all are due to mines, but when you consider the numbers you will agree that the media is not merely shunning its tasks, it has become a joke on several sides of the reporting equation. As such wonder why Arab News is covering this event, more important why others are not. To see the removal of 118 mines a day 365 days a year and they have been doing this since 2018. That is the larger setting (that and where Houthis got that amount of funds in the first place). The KS relief teams have been putting their lives on the line for 5 years and someone needs to stop, pause and realise this. We see the United Nations cry like little babies calling the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia evil and they ignore this part of the equation? 

I will let you figure that part out. Enjoy this day today.

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The carrot game

This is not a setting where we get entertained by Jasper Carrot (British Comedian). No this is about another game. To see this we need to take a look (at https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/26/us-military-training-saudi/) where we are given ‘US to Provide Military Training to Saudi Arabia Under $1B Deal’, you see, this sounds fine. Especially as training a fighter pilot (allegedly) costs $5.6M to train an F16 pilot and $10.9M to train an F22 pilot. The numbers add up quickly and as the article states there are more options there. What took me was “The latest agreement was made amid reports that Washington is considering the resumption of offensive arms sales to the Middle Eastern country.” When you look at “considering the resumption” that is the carrot. It is too late for that, or perhaps I need to be slightly more direct. Or you commit, or you get the fuck out of the way. That is the setting. America has wasted more and more and now they either commit or see their economy collapse, because without Arab billions (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) with support and additional sales to places like Egypt this party is taking of towards Asian borders. Now I do not care either way, I get no commission from any of this (alas). But the carrot game is too dodgy at this point and America needs to wake up. This is the final stretch. Baseball players call this the bottom of the ninth and the game was spoiled, crushed and squandered by egocentric players, diva coaches who were considering THEIR limelight and that list goes on and the media had a part to play as well. Now America needs to either commit or vacate the area. This is seen in other ways too. Defence One (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/09/lockheed-hungers-f-35-sustainment-deal-pentagon-says-it-might-not-happen/390380/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl) gave us in September ‘As Lockheed hungers for F-35 sustainment deal, Pentagon says it might not happen’. A stager I reported on months before that is now coming to fruition. Lockheed (under Pentagon scrutiny) have priced themselves out of the market. As such consider “Lockheed Martin says a new five-year deal to sustain the F-35 fleet won’t be reached by the end of this year.” Now consider what you saw with considering a resumption. So one side cannot afford and the other side will not deliver. How is that not a recipe for disaster? And lets be clear, with the Russian strategic gambles the USA and its NATO partners need to get as much revenue as possible. Especially as news is increasing that the Ukraine is low on ammunition. A stage no one wants to see. Because the one fighting team (team Ukraine) is the only thing preventing Russia to expand into Europe. They might be down on troops, but the Kremlin is not short of delusional aspirations. As such the defence blunders that are coming needs to be avoided and as such there is no space for “considering the resumption” it is way too late for that. On the other hand, the more revenue that is headed for the French coffers, the more France can contribute and that would be novel, the US has not depended on France since 1784 when it was still called the Kingdom of France. Then America didn’t have any revenue, now it has nothing left. As such there will be consequences for America. Which ones? I cannot say, I cannot even hazard a guess. But there are still the notions of France and some kind of alignment to the BRICS constellation. To what degree? There is no open data supporting it, but the news had been spreading. Russia is the only one against it, but as things go there won’t be much of a Russia left. On the upside as Russia is sending its troops to the slaughter there is every chance that Russia (whats left of it) ends up being the first matriarchal nation on the planet. If it happens it only took 3 years to get there. 

In these rocky waters and these larger changing stages America has little choice to either put up or shut up. Feel free to disagree, but look at all the data, do not trust the media by itself and you will see that there is a hiatus on data on several levels and the media never covered that? How come?

As such the NATO players need to reconsider who gives them what evidence and who exactly benefits the spreading  of filtered news. It is a simple enough question. Enjoy the few days between Christmas and New Years Eve.

Enjoy.

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Who wrote what for whom?

That was the very first question in my mind when I read the article in the Foreign Policy called ‘How Saudi Arabia Could Use Its Leverage in Gaza’ (at https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/18/saudi-arabia-israel-gaza-mbs-leverage/) there are a few settings I had an issue with, so let’s go.

The first part is seen with “While some observers may be surprised by Hamas’s heinous Oct. 7 attacks and the eruption of a major war, others had long dreaded such an outbreak of violence. Due to the desperate desire of both Israel and the United States to see a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia, the unresolved and simmering Palestinian issue was largely ignored.” Is that so? Several governments as well as the United Nations have been eager to ignore the events of October 7th. The United Nations took that vicious cowardly attack from all considerations, others merely painted over that event like it was an undesired breakfast. It was what set rage in the hearts of Israel. The word Hamas is mentioned in this brief twice, one you saw above. So that is the second setting in all this. We can understand and to some degree agree with “Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan is leading a diplomatic committee mandated by the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, to tour various international capitals and argue for an immediate cease-fire.” As an observer I understand that Saudi actions is driven by the need to protect Muslim lives, nothing wrong with that. Yet the biggest problem in all this remains Hamas, and as one source told me “until someone stops Hamas effing around, there is no stopping the IDF” a very valid argument from the other side and as I see it the largest issue is right there. Hamas must be stopped. They opened the door with 1,413+ kills, 8,745+ wounded and 248+ captured or abducted. The IDF hit back and in Gaza we are told the damage is 19,453+ killed, 52,286+ wounded and 7,000+ missing. The problem here is that Hamas is hiding in-between the civilians giving us a one sided reported issue. We see too little reporting on events like “the video, which has been replayed by dozens of news outlets, seems to confirm what Israel has long claimed that Hamas uses innocent Palestinians as barricades by installing their headquarters and arsenals beneath schools, hospitals and other public institutions in a vast complex of subterranean tunnels.” The Washington Post did not keep silent and for reference, the dozen news outlets should alert you. For reference, in America alone there are 204 counties in the United States with no news outlets. There are 1,562 counties with only one and a global total of ‘dozens’ mentions of that event? This should and needs to be a wake up call, especially when we collect the number of European news outlets as well, ‘dozens’ is an outrage and that is also part of the equation.

So now we get to “The Saudis are also using an overlooked diplomatic tool: silence. Their outright refusal of any political discussion before a cease-fire is also generating pressure by disallowing Israel a clear political horizon after the campaign. As the Saudi foreign minister said last month: “What future is there to talk about when Gaza is being destroyed.”” Here we can agree or disagree, but silence is a valid tool and Saudi Arabia is doing what it feels to be best for Muslim lives, no one can deny that, what does matters is that the west is equally in silence by gives no explanation on why it does so and ignoring the October 7th events does not happen. For reference Al Jazeera covered the October 7 events, many news outlets trivialised those events.

So when we are given “It does not want to allow itself to be politicised for Israeli political ends. In other words, the Saudi ruling elites want to avoid being “spun.”” I can accept and get behind that, because in any war there are at least two sides and they both want to spin to accentuate THEIR view. I can get behind that train of thought of not getting spun. 

Then we get to an actual truth that matters “Israel will never match the financial capacity of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Its economy is struggling, and according to a recent report by the Bank of Israel, it is losing $600 million a week during this campaign. The Israeli central bank has also suggested that the war costs from 2023 to 2025 will amount to some $53 billion.” What is equally missing is that America as well as the EU neither have these funds. One source (allegedly Vanity Fair ;0) has stated that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has spend well over $53B during dinner in the past, as such the KSA has the funds. 

As we add the one reality that should have been number one from the get go “Nowadays, nothing in Saudi Arabia is spent unless it is deemed to be serving the kingdom’s interest; “Saudi Arabia first” is the principle that Saudi’s foreign policy is based on.” I personally believe that this is the only stance that should matter to the KSA and that is the setting. Then we get to the real meat. The statement “The truth is that Saudi Arabia has always had a leading role in this conflict, but it preferred a leading-from-behind approach. This approach allowed it to use its diplomatic and symbolic weight without being on the political front line and potentially risking its strategic interests. The Saudi ruling elites came to the conclusion that they had mustered a great deal of political effort for a fruitless process and thus have never injected themselves into the intricacies of the Palestinian-Israeli final status negotiations.” Is a real deal. You see Americans want to talk about everything and produce nothing, members of the KSA merely want to achieve what is best for the KSA and according to Islam is best to Muslims, that is what is here and that is why the case of Hamas is a tough one. You see Hamas is all Muslim, it merely works towards selfish reasons and the events we see in Gaza shows that. The one truth no one is entertaining is how much better Palestinians are better off without Hamas. One example is Tawhid al-Jihad, so where was Hamas when these new players were unfolding all over the West Bank around 10 years ago?

As I personally see it there are several players and most of them serve self interests. In this KSA is perhaps the only one who does not. And as I see it all parties ned to realise that Hamas is the one selfish voice in there. The events regarding al-Shifa should be taken as clear evidence in this. With only a few exceptions nearly all civilised nations have agreed that Hospitals and schools are not to be considered military outlets, especially with all the civilians in place.  A reality too many news outlets are ignoring.

The article in Foreign Policy ends with “Before Riyadh steps up and shows greater assertiveness on this issue, the Saudi ruling elites need to see a clear political horizon and an improved structure to the peace process. At that point, they might use their considerable financial leverage to shape the outcome.” You see, my issue here is that this sounds like American policies on the Middle East, so who was the source? An American political player, a stakeholder, or something else? In my (oversimplified) view, the stance most governments needs to take is that the one self-serving player here is Hamas, they are the actual danger and the actual threat. This all started as Saudi relations with Israel were normalising and I personally believe that the message on wrecking that came from Qatar, It is either Ismail Haniyeh directly or someone in his office that pushed those buttons. But that is merely my view and what do I know? 

What matters is that one could argue that Hamas is openly acting against the needs for Saudi stabilising matters in the middle east, Israel was a first step and there is seemingly not much left of that now is there?

Enjoy today, I am now 65 minutes from Midweek.

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Commonwealth Internet Intelligence

This is the call, it is a simple one. In this I believe it should have started well over a year ago, but that is just me. Perhaps it has already started, but I wouldn’t know that. The setting started with an image

There was also a text. The text was that a Russian Troll was able to shutdown an Ukrainian information channel on YouTube. Interesting how Google wasn’t able to disseminate information. Yet this opened up a new need. 

The Commonwealth needs to set a rather large collection system. It needs to collect all relevant data from all relevant social media sources on who is spreading what. And there is no freedom of speech, when you tally towards terrorist organisations you become the problem. Another source (Newsweek) gives us ‘Russia Loses 37 Artillery Systems, 1,250 Troops and 19 Tanks in a Day: Kyiv’ (at https://www.newsweek.com/russia-artillery-systems-casualty-count-tanks-avdiivka-ukraine-1853110) that news is less than 12 hours old. The losses in Russia are adding up to something surpassing the total of losses from WW2 (German and allied) and the losses in tanks surpass the total tank stock of several NATO nations. Russia is about to get desperate and internet lies are cheap. As such the Commonwealth (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and United Kingdom) will need to keep tabs on what is being spread. When you consider the abilities of a software solution like Trollrensics and the modelling setting of Palantir you should be able to get a lot more aggregated intelligence. Those who cannot afford Palantir could look at IBM modeller. A setting that has now become essential. You see, from disinformation comes the setting of lone wolves and that is the next step that Russia will rely on and that chaos will hamper any nation, as such there needs to be a clear data collection  and the laws need to be equally adjusted, so that some 17 year old idiot cannot hide behind “I wanted to look cool”. Siding with terrorism needs to come at a price and as we want to reduce their rights (I believe it to be a valid option) we need to collect that data to make sense of it all. It remains a tall order in light of troll farms and identity theft, but a longer term data collection setting should allow us to see the true data and make sense of it all. You see, we get that some people accidentally or not get one message wrong, but to get a whole range wrong is a much larger problem and I reckon that Russia could be relying on lone wolves from mid 2024 onwards. They are already (according to some sources) pushing expats and now that their losses include the purchase of 346,000 body bags (from start until now) that setting becomes even more an issue. The 135,000 new conscriptions doesn’t even come close to what they need, especially as their deployment and resources are dwindling down to alarming rates as well. You can see this in whatever way you want, yet the setting is that the 20th largest army brought the second largest army to their knees and even if tougher times are ahead. Even when US support falls on its knees, the setting does become that Russia will need to rely on lone wolves and misinformation making the needs for a CII essential. I reckon that a player like GCHQ will hoist the banners on how it should be run, but the other nations need to get on board fast. The US is not much of an ally in all this and the Commonwealth better get ready when the others are all about the talk and not much about actions. The fact that YouTube (read: Google) was unable to see the truth behind Russian trolls is further evidence still in the need for additional social media data collection. 

Think of this what you will, but in your heart I believe you know that I am right, or at least not entirely incorrect. I see that there is a chasm between the two, any critical thinker would see that.

Enjoy the start of a new week.

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As roles unfold

I made mention on this in ‘Egg timer? What egg timer?’ on November 29th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/29/egg-timer-what-egg-timer/). I also mentioned these dangers several times more, going all the way back to September 9th 2021 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/09/lemon-of-the-century/) when I wrote ‘Lemon of the Century’, there were clear signs, there was clear danger to the revenue of America and now we see ‘Dassault CEO talks Saudi interest in Rafale, takes a shot at F-35 and reveals FCAS details’ (at https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/dassault-ceo-talks-saudi-interest-in-rafale-takes-a-shot-at-f-35-and-reveals-fcas-details/). This was always going to happen, but now the damage to US revenue is increased. Saudi Arabia is now seriously considering 54 Rafale aircrafts. That will set American revenue back a few billion, eight to be more exact. And that is not all, when you consider that 171 have been bought by Riyadh’s neighbours, there is now a larger setting for SAMI to start talking on munitions and rocket factories in Saudi Arabia, in line with the SAMI goal of 50% of productions to be done within the kingdom in line with their 2030 vision. And through that America loses even more revenue. I reckon that France will go along if there is something in it for them and France spreading defence industries in Saudi Arabia opens up a few more options for them too. All that and it was not in the wind, it was a wind blowing negativity to the US coffers. As such the hardship for America is more then just starting, it is starting to gain speed making the American industry losing more and more revenue. All that through ego, how stupid was that?

And whilst all the players are boasting what they have coming and what more then could get the CEO of Dassault Éric Trappier will be doing it setting the annual forecast well over 15% higher, revenue the other boasters will not have and America basically has that much less. If they boast we got enough, they are correct for now, but what more is there to be lost and what options will China offer? The Chengdu J-20 is still there being a tactical and commercial threat to all the other 5th generation stealth providers. A setting we would never have considered realistic is now unfolding and I saw it ahead of all the other analysts. Makes you wonder why they get so much money to begin with.

And in that light, how much revenue will the others lose when India signs those papers as well? Christmas came early for Dassault Aviation. That much seems clear to me at present.

Enjoy the day.

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A busy day

This is not how it started. It started with an easy setting, the setting I am bout to explain. From there I got to a second station, which is the story that comes after this story and last there was a setting towards Engonos (my new TV series), in light of season 2. I came up with an additional ploy. A ploy not unlike the movie the league of extraordinary gentlemen gave us. But I am spinning it into another direction. I am actually using the setting that TV gave u in the past to create a setting towards a new spin, when people are confronted with TV series and their colloquialism is perhaps the best explanation I can give for now, but I will get back to that soon enough. The reason for telling you this is that these events happened almost at the same time, so in my head they are connected, my other brain (the wakey wakey part) hasn’t figured that out yet. Yet being the operative word.

Stage one
It started with a message on LinkedIn. A message by Simon Robinson, about who killed his reporters. The problem is that this is all emotions, lacking too many facts, as I personally see it. You see, the IDF doesn’t just casually shoot reporters with a tank, I am not willing to accept that. Yet in the same setting, I do rely on EVIDENCE. That is important to me. You see, Simon is emotional, his little bunny is dead, I get it. But the NY Post gives us “The alleged strike occurred shortly after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed retaliatory artillery fire over the Israel-Lebanon border in response to shooting from Lebanese territory.” So was it a tank, or artillery? There is a difference, did Simon think of that? 

Al Jazeera gives us ‘Journalist killed in Lebanon was in ‘active combat zone’’ (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/8/israeli-army-says-journalist-killed-in-lebanon-was-in-active-combat-zone) in addition we are given “Appearing to dismiss calls for a war crime investigation into the death of a Reuters journalist and injury of six others under fire from its tanks in October, the Israeli army said on Friday that the incident is under review, but noted that the reporters had placed themselves in a “dangerous” area.”  So, Reuters got the tank part correct. But never mentioned that they were in an active combat zone, a part we never got. It was what I speculated on from the very beginning, the bunny was collateral damage. If you take offence, that is fine. I get it. But lets be clear, the press has no credibility left and partial news to give the line “who hit him, who killed him” is a bloody joke. There is a cost to being in an active combat zone. The question becomes did Issam Abdallah know that he was in an active combat zone? I do not know, and I am not speculating. The part problem is that the press has no credibility left and they already lied to all of us. So what happened? In all this that remains the question and it is going to need several sources, sources that are independent and can be used as verifiable sources that could solve this issue.

As I said, it was a busy day. Tomorrow it is Optus to be exposed and I have something going back to 2019. Should be fun, enjoy Saturday. I have less than 3 hours left of that day.

Cheerio.

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Egg timer? What egg timer?

Yes, we get that. There are egg timers that give us what we were waiting for. I stated on November 17th (12 days ago) “A complete overhaul was the only option and now with BRICS and China pushing in on the little revenue they had left, they have no options now and their competitors are moving in on whatever revenue they had left.” I said so in ‘It’s that time again’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/11/17/its-that-time-again/) Now Politico gives us ‘Brussels wants to beat the Pentagon at its own game on arms sales’ (at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-weapons-sales-united-states-defense/) there we see “The European Commission is hinting at a new mechanism similar to the US Foreign Military Sales to facilitate arms exports”, well that didn’t take long, did it? So when we see “In order to claw back the initiative, the European Commission is raising the prospect of copying the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) scheme” we see one thing, but I think it is more about stopping the Chinese sales system of becoming too successful. I fear it might be a little too late for that. There is every indication that China is almost ready to the defence needs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Too little, too late and as I see it, a little over two years too late. I reckon they ill soon be fishing on the wrong side of the net. So whilst we are now given “In early 2024, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is expected to present a European Defence Industrial Strategy to help support the Continent’s European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The consultation document is one of five papers circulated to national delegations to get their views on what the strategy should look like.” You see several reports are out there in the trend of “Riyadh eyes air defence systems and drones as part of possible yuan-based deal while Cairo plans to buy J-10C fighter jets”, so whilst the Europeans are trying to figure out “how to go about it” Saudi Arabia and Egypt are at this point getting catered to by China. As such we see that the China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO) is actively talking to the Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), who is interested in diversifying. 

So that is billions missed, just as I predicted almost two years ago. Now that it is happening, some are ‘reporting’ all whilst whatever intension Europe has with “on what the strategy should look like”, Beijing is not merely getting its feet wet, it is catering to a new clientele and China is hungry for that revenue. So when was the last time you left billions on the floor? As I personally see it Amazon did so a year ago (but they have plenty of cash), the US government does not, it has a debt of $31,000,000,000,000 as such every billion lost is another carve on the debt stick and the next shutdown is expected to be around January 19th 2024 if they cannot agree on a new continuing resolution a lot will fall away. That was a given, but with Europe now tying to get defence money, giving the US less and already China is in the mix (has been for months) with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and they are expected to score some revenue from the United Arab Emirates as well, this upcoming CR will be missing a few revenue posts and not much is needed to make it all fall over. The larger setting is not merely defence, the UAE will (according to one source) be looking at ships as well. As such there is every chance that the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) could be up for some UAE coast guard ships. As I understand it, it has something to do with the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Co (ADSB). So is it mere consultancy? Ships design? I honestly do not know, but what does matter is that they used to have an American fleet, now as that falls away a lot more revenue will be missed by American companies. 

All this and the larger setting isn’t merely what Politico tells you, it is the second degree that the Saudi and Egyptian deals open the doors for. I think that Bangladesh is next on the Chinese sights. China has a two sided tactic, gain revenue and stop America from getting revenue. It is the same setting we saw with Evergreen in 1989. Yung-Fa Chang played his hand brilliantly, a setting where players like Nedlloyd had close to complete control was lost in less than 5 years to Evergreen. I reckon that we get a similar kind of play towards the larger naval needs of Bangladesh and Indonesia. After that there will not be much left for America. They already broke their own windows with their ‘elite’ approach towards the F-22 Raptor. I am not criticising this. It was the demand of the US to keep sole custody of that dinky toy. Yet now Chengdu has several nations vying for their J-20 and with the range options, that is a thing coveted by many defence forces all over the globe and there Saudi Arabia, UAE and optionally Egypt and Indonesia as well is a setting of several billions right of the bat, and I expect that the USA cannot counter those odds on revenue. Yet there are a few options for Europe as well. If they push their agenda Chengdu will have to compete with the Eurofighter Typhoon. I have no idea who will win that revenue race, but Europe better be moving fast, the early bird that hesitates becomes worm food. As for the technical side, I am not a pilot. Yet in all this the Evergreen approach comes to mind, so America and Europe are quickly running out of time and Europe’s voiced response of “on what the strategy should look like” sounded nice in 2021, but not now. It’s crunch time for them at this point.

Enjoy your day today.

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