Category Archives: Military

December 29, 2024 · 22:00

At the close of a year

This might be the last article this year (no promises). I have been haunted by a weird dream, but that is not what this is about. You see, the army recognition group gave us yesterday (at https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/saudi-arabia-eyes-up-to-100-turkish-kaan-fighter-jets-as-us-made-f-35-remains-inaccessible) ‘Saudi Arabia eyes up to 100 Turkish Kaan fighter jets as US-made F-35 remains inaccessible.’ I know nothing of this plane, so I am not going in that direction. The setting that the US set the inability of the F35 being handed to Saudi hands is worthy of responding to. You see, the pricing of the F35 is set to “$102.1 million for the F-35C.” This means that America lifted their nose at 10 – 25 billion of hard needed income. The planes, the support and engineering surplus and a few other options. I expected that China would ‘swoop’ in to get that money. It is decently plausible that their were more reasons. I am merely setting that this could also mean the end of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), you see, airbases on foreign ground are meant for allies and America has priced them out of that corner. As I see it Anthony Blinken has done away with that option. You see, only two months ago we got “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday sought to make headway with Saudi Arabia on” whatever ‘his’ administration is ‘worried’ about. You need to have an ally for that and the fact that the F35 has been ‘unavailable’ since 2012. That is over 12 years, so as the F35 faces being optionally phased out by 2030, they lost one of their biggest customers and provisional ally in the Arabic peninsula as I personally see it. 

And America? Well, who needs an ally who is never there? That is the short and sweet part of this all and for Turkey this might be the sweet deal of the century. At some point the UAE and Egypt will also require 5th gen stealth fighters. This will make it harder for America and China to get traction. I never expected that Turkey was on that level, but that shows you what I know of this field.

And this is not the first time America, Europe and China enter behind the fishnet only to end up with nothing. This potential purchase follows Saudi Arabia’s $3.1 billion agreement with Türkiye in 2023 for the acquisition of 60 Baykar AKINCI unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), set for delivery in 2025 and 2026.

So, when was the last time major governments walked away from a potential 15 billion deal? America might shout tariffs and the upcoming said expansion with their 51st state (Canada), but they forget that Canada is part of a Commonwealth and in their views (the Commonwealth) it amounts to a direct assault on the Commonwealth. So when was the last time a nation was engaged with the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa and at least two dozen more. If they reject all imports from America, the American economy goes the way of the dodo a lot faster than the dodo did. For China it sounds like a prolonged Christmas. You see, if they get traction with the Commonwealth, a desire they never thought realistic, but going after their largest member Canada might set that deal to nominal.

That as the rejection of billions set a dangerous premise for America and Saudi Arabia can play hard to get in that instance. So the next threat by the president elect Trump will set a minefield around (presumed) Marco Rubio making his job next to impossible. 

But we will see what will happen. In the meantime we should send a congratulatory card to Turkey for this achievement.

And of course the card for the next tenant of the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), but that is likely to follow in 2025/2026. As I see it, the next two years are close to essential for the next administration to avoid a governmental garage sale. But what do I know?

Still, in retrospect the dream still bugs me. The dream was a job at ADNOC, in Abu Dhabi. They had an AS400 running SPSS 6.1.3 and it had been gathering dust. It wasn’t working and the people at IBM said it was the fault of ADNOC. In the dream I merely had to remove 2 lines (reading ASCII data), two variables Alphanumeric were making a mess of things and removing the two lines solved 96% of the issue. 96% was fixed in the first hour (well for one job). I needed two additional hours to align the alphanumeric fields. And that took two hours to work out, I used Excel for that (the one Microsoft program Microsoft got right). And with that the first month was back on track. A weird setting, as I know next to nothing of ADNOC, I know that they are in oil, and that is all. I haven’t thought of that program in over 2 decades, so what gives? Well, in part technical support at SPSS was perhaps one of the most fulfilling jobs. But the powers that be didn’t see me as IBM material. O well, such is life. 

Time to head to the end of the year and see what 2025 will bring. 

Have a great day and the optional conclusion of a great year.

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December 23, 2024 · 16:49

The who now?

Arab News in Pakistan alerted me to news that threw me a bit. The story reads ‘Students in Pakistan’s north embark on over 150-kilometer march for road safety awareness’ (at https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2583931/pakistan) we are given ““This route has been constructed by FWO [Frontier Works Organisation],” he added. “However, the tunnels were not built, and this road has become more dangerous.”” This threw me a bit, you see, I am not versed in this, but shaped by Dutch and Australian education (all the way up to University) I have a certain understanding to certain matters. As I see it, a road is planned is costed and when it is approved it is build. Now I don’t know how it is costed, but I would assume (with a flair for humour) that it is that the cost of a road is set to X (per meter) and the tunnels are given to 2X+(1.5*(6*COS(distance depth))) with an increase of materials by coffee and pie. Added as well are bridges which would cost 4.1314546 times the distance in meters offset by the depth of the crevice traversed. OK, it is clear that I do not know anything about costing roads, but these matters would have been set to papers. So when I was given that the tunnels were never build I went “Huh?” Would that not be an alert to anyone involved in the creation of that traversable distance? And then we are given “Arab News contacted FWO, a construction and engineering organisation managed by the Pakistan Army, for its version. However, it was referred to the local chapter of the military’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations, which did not respond to the query until the filing of this report.” As such there is a likely issue. It comes with the added “It has become a well of death. Accidents are common on this road, and it has devoured many precious lives. A few days ago, five people were killed after a landslide buried their car. We have grown tired of lifting bodies due to accidents.” As such I get why there is a mach for road safety and when we see the connected “Skardu is a major tourism, trekking and mountaineering hub in Pakistan’s northern Gilgit-Baltistan region”, I wonder what is going on. When the connected tourism fatalities get exposed to western media (they love western deaths for the flammable digital dollars) we see a much larger setting. The road was partially build, the tunnels (all five) are missing, which means that there is a lot of money somewhere. What happened to that cash?

And as I see it, this visibility is given to us by Shehbaz Shareef, a member of the Baltistan Students Federation (BSF). Whatever the equation is, it represents a lot of money, and the digging equipment wasn’t used so some construction firms are also out of revenue. You see, I expect that a construction and engineering organisation managed by the Pakistan Army might not have all that drill equipment, if they do they have a log file with times been drilling times. So where are those? 

As such this story threw me a bit, as I see it the there are a few lose screws in this story (optionally not intentional and it is not on Arab News). And as we are thinking this over I wonder what I have missed (optionally a few items) but in a setting where there is a balance of debit funds and credit labour costs. In any world the balance is maintained by setting one part against the other and now we see that a man named Shehbaz Shareef is telling us that parts of the equation is completely missing and it will result in lives (plus added costs). So I go “You’re who now?” On the lighter side of things, I just thought of a modern multifunctional Christmas tree. A tree not based on wood (the actual tree) and it all comes with lights. The ornaments are kept separate. It is all in a days work. Some will state that it is a mere x3+y3+z3=k, yet when you realise that there are a few quirks to any “Diophantine equation”. But the question becomes how did Diophantus of Alexandria come to realise that there was a Christmas tree, they didn’t exist at that point. So when you realise that the Fermat equation xd + yd − zd = 0, and now set the premise that you consider  “there is no algorithm that can correctly decide existence of integer solutions for all equations in this family.” Doesn’t that mean that any (so called) AI that is given that will optionally go nuts trying to figure this out cannot accept this unless a programmer sets the exit routine to this faltering setting. Now consider that someone had the building equation ready (by themselves) and realising this implies that someone knew that the tunnels were not there and as such Shehbaz Shareef opened a optionally dangerous hornets nest (as I personally see it). Have you ever seen any clear limelight setting see revelation all whilst the involved parties all had 13 moves to hide the skeletons who appeased certain parties. It is just an idea and I might be wrong, in the meantime I designed another patentable idea. What ever will I do next. Over the next week I will write a little less, all about people bothering me with all kinds of Christmas tree events.

Have a great day, I’ll be dreaming of Canada and the white snowy (and icy) slopes whilst being in a place with a 36 degrees Celsius heat. Have a good one.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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November 28, 2024 · 21:49

The edge of darker creativity

There is a dark corner. It is not a unique setting, it is in everyone. The problem comes when any person gets their creativity and taps into that darkness. Is everyone on board? You see, I just tapped into this and what I created scared me to near death. When we see the news, we see that there is an armistice in Lebanon. Reuters reported a mere 12 hours ago: “A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah held on Wednesday under a deal brokered by the U.S. and France as people in both countries began returning to homes in the border area shattered by 14 months of fighting.” Sounds lovely doesn’t it? Well, in under an hour all these ‘Lebanese citizens’ came out in droves waving Hezbollah flags. As such I wonder how long this seize fire will hold. Some Hezbollah idiot will think that it is a good idea to send a missile into Israel, to gain fame with others. And Israel will go berserk and strike out. That is what realism tells me. We do not know what will happen. The minds of terrorists tend to go where most are fearful. And there is a second sight. Someone has to appease the will of Iran and someone will.

As such I came up with the Bullet Plus, as you can see it seems like a simple bullet, It is however not intended to shoot someone. In the bullet is a small canister, as the bullet impacts, the canister will break and the fluid will be released. You can have any kind of fluids there. There is Sarin, Novichok (Ask the Russian GRU for details on that one), there are also diseases like pulmonary diseases. Not directly fatal (like Novichok) but now we get an area issue. You see, pulmonary poisons will affect people in an area and hospitals will pick up on these. The result of a stray bullet. Consider shooting Sarin into an Hamas building, suddenly we start getting a range of intel we never had before (Mossad didn’t have it either). Sarin is too deadly, Novichok is an option and others are options too. You see, we might know 1-2 Hamas agents, but the 5-9 support staff remain unknown. Now they come out of the woodworks. We could use something like Caesium chloride, it is highly toxic and it cannot spread from person to person. Direct interaction is needed. For this you need to look at the Goiânia accident in Brazil (1987). You see, all these terrorists and their sympathisers might scream ‘innocent, innocent’ but at some point even Saudi Arabia will need to deal with them. They need to simply because Iran will make them act in some way against Saudi Arabia. It is not a case of ‘if’ it is merely a when. And for those thinking this is an Israel issue, consider the border wall of Gaza with Egypt.

The H3 terrorists will need to be dealt with at some point. Hamas is a certainty, Hezbollah is becoming more and more needed and when these fall away Houthi actions are most likely to become zero.

Feel free to disagree with me but in all this consider that this started on 7 October 2023 with Hamas attacking a pop concert. And in all that time how many refugees were ‘allowed’ into Egypt? I will let you count the articles that have been published on this it will be less then usual. It is so much easier for the media to go anti semitic on us all. Emotional flames score more digital dollars then simple truths. That is the truth of the media. Anyhow, I decided to let the dark corner of my creativity speak and I came up with this. Perhaps DARPA had this already, perhaps they did not. I already scored 5 wins over DARPA, so my ego is just fine. If my HOPplusOne solution works I have 6 wins over DARPA. There is only so much my ego needs, for the rest I merely think of other solutions. In this, I still love the idea that I designed a solution to meltdown nuclear reactors based on a snow-globe. You probably never thought that this ‘device’ had instrumental options did you?

Anyway, we all hope that the seize fire holds, but I am not holding my breath. No matter how you slice it, 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. Consider how many Hamas people are ‘suddenly’ awarded a nice place to live and in this and the BBC gave us last week “Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said Hamas’s office no longer had a function because Qatar had suspended its mediation efforts on a Gaza ceasefire deal, although he stressed that it was not permanently closed. The Palestinian official told the BBC the Hamas negotiators had adjusted their presence in the region and were keeping their locations secret to avoid embarrassing host countries.” So why isn’t it permanently closed? I reckon that Qatar is feeling the anger from other islamic nations and Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza has issued a Fatwa against the October 7th attack. That is a bitter pill to swallow for Hamas. As such Hamas needs a different setting and remaining underground (optionally somewhere in Qatar) makes sense, because there are very little hiding places in Gaza left. When you add it all up my solution has a few things going for it. The largest issue is that it is becoming important to see how the claws of Hamas reach out and optionally the same goes for Hezbollah and Houthi. The nice part is that if this plan comes to fruition Iran will have to desert these three players because the impact of undeniable evidence would haunt Iran to the largest extent and the only thing going for these three players is that Iran under Qasem Soleimani was much better arranged then now. Now we see more and more issues out in the open and soon there is no denying what happens and the other players hurt by Iran will strike back at that point. How they strike back? That remains to be seen, but at that point Iran will lose whatever friends it thought it had in the first place. That is merely my point of view. 

Have a great creative day, possibly a lot less dark than the one I am having now.

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November 13, 2024 · 22:13

Trials of a madman

Something made me think of King George III today. He was known as the mad king. For me it wasn’t what I knew, but it was the view thrusted on me by Nigel Hawthorne who played the Madness of King George. He got assistance by Helen Mirren, Ian Holm and Rupert Everett. What mattered is that this view gave me the rest of the setting. You see the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/for-2nd-day-straight-russias-reported-losses-in-ukraine-surge-to-record-levels/) gave me ‘For 2nd day straight, Russia’s reported losses in Ukraine surge to record levels’ now, war is indiscriminate for the living. The living are merely people who haven’t died yet and War in any form relishes death above all other currencies. What got to me was “This surpasses the previous record of 1,770 set just the day before. The total figure stands at 712,610.”

We are also given “In a bid to regain control, Russia has deployed 50,000 troops, including soldiers from North Korea, to the Kursk region.” I tend to ask Ares for advice on these matters and he gives me that it will merely take an additional 17 days for them all to be slaughtered. The Koreans are out of their element and that implies an increasing amount of miscommunication between the Russians and Koreans will increase the rate at which their bodies and souls become separated. This reflects on ‘the Madness of King George’ as King George should have been able to see that America was lost to him, and he gave the order to battle for America. He of course didn’t count on the French who liked England to be weaker. Russia is making a generic same setting using Koreans, mercenaries, Nepali forces (about 200 of them), Serbians as well as some Bosnians. It seems that the fifth largest army is no longer depending on its 1.15 million active-duty personnel and close to two million reservists. They are willing to let the other people swallow the bullets meant for Russian forces. Yet the larger setting is ignored. Are they setting a stage where they hope that the others will swallow bullets until the Ukrainians run out of ammo? Do you remember these arrogant Russian media types claiming it was a mere 2 days exercise? We are in day 994 now and there is no letting up. Even more so, Russia has lost territory to the Ukrainian forces. There is no way that the top of the Kremlin does not see that. Lets be clear, the high command of the Kremlin is as able as most of the NATO countries and they see these numbers too. More important, they also see that Russia is now indebted to North Korea now. If someone would have told them in 2000 that this would happen a mere 24 years later, they would have howled with laughter (and rightfully so). We now see that Russian logistics are a mess, Russian hardware is failing all over the place in their own biosphere. These machines are not able to withstand the Russian conditions, a first setting that would have been required. As such, what mess is Russia in? Oh, and before you think this is the larger part, you would be wrong. The larger part are the 18750 lost drones. The cheapest military drone is about $700K, making this an effort to tap the vein at $13,000,000,000. One element is costing them 13 billion and counting. The second is 20350 pieces of artillery, wanna guess how cheap they are? And replacing them is a costly and time consuming issue. The Russian army is about to be a mere shadow of an empty egg shell. That setting was 850 days in the making and the Kremlin let it all happen. There is no loyalty towards Putin, as I see it these generals are letting this happen to the Russian population. Why? This is not some ego setting. I have never seen an ego letting this happen to 712610 fellow citizens. I get it, if you are under attack this could happen, but Russia instigated this attack and there lies the crunch. In other news Lord Hades is welcoming over 725000 souls into his domain. As I see it he is happy and Ares is merely mesmerised by the utter stupidity of people. 

We are also given “Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that as”tens of thousands of enemy soldiers from the best Russian shock units” are aiming to push Ukrainian forces out of the Russian enclave, raising concerns of a significant escalation in the war.” It is a thought that makes sense, but the other side is equally possible. If President elect Trump lets this sail, it would take the better part of two decades for the Russian forces to be anywhere near to a threat to NATO and other parties that rely on President elect Trump. In this I oppose the view by Aljazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/6/australia-spy-chief-says-west-faces-new-russia-china-iran-n-korea-axis) where we are given ‘Australia spy chief says West faces new Russia, China, Iran, N Korea ‘axis’’, I get that we are given “Andrew Shearer, said on Wednesday that the strategic impact of the emerging axis, with China and Russia at its core, had been underestimated.” As I see it, the Ukrainian offensive with Russia, North Korean and Iran is a bit of a sizzler. As Iranian drones are dealt with the weaknesses are exposed making it easier for Israel and NATO allies to create counter measures. China will keep its distance as it would be tactically sound. Iran as it loses its proxies through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi become close to powerless. At this foundation China prefers to stand alone, with NATO allies contributing to this violent settlement, China gets a real chance to look at what their optional opponent is capable of. And with China leading an economic windfall in several places, it can afford to wait. Whatever Russia and China deal we are given, until I have investigated the source of the intelligence, I merely see that an old premise becomes optional. It comes from James Grady who also wrote six days of the Condor. This story showed us the setting of a China stage (in Montana if I remember correctly). They spoke about something called ‘Gamaljoen’, it I remember this correctly (from Dutch). A person who through attachments was ‘made’ important and that person created importance by making the connections more important than they were. The person was not that important in the end, but the intelligence network wasted resources and time to learn this. It is entirely possible that China is now employing this setting and others like Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu are voicing this setting. In the meantime (as I personally see it) China seems more clever that this and they are unwilling to claim any stake in this lose-lose battle that it represents. This is rather nasty news for Sergei Shoigu, but there it is.

Are these truly the trials of a madman? In this I accept that I could be the madman, but see at what has happened in the last 925 days, am I that wrong? 

Oh and if the Koreans are up to it, cook a decent mean for the Russians. If the South Korean kitchen is anything to go by, they could use a proper meal. In the realm of Hades those without honour feast on the bones of whomever they slay. You can ask Ares, he can usually be found in the northern part of the Ancient Agora of Athens. Hades can be found in the palace of Tartarus, getting there is however quite the challenge. The Myrmidon tend to make short work of trespassers.

So there is my happy moment of the day, you have a nice day too.

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November 11, 2024 · 18:19

The unspoken truth

That is a setting we relish and fear. There is no escaping it. When some people relish the setting of total freedom, they also fear how some people might abuse that same level of freedom. We applaud the freedom of speech, but we also fear the people that abuse it, like ‘Just Stop Oil’ for example. There was an advertisement the other day. The setting was an art exhibit and two “oilers” step up to defile a work of art. Then we see a middle aged man walk up to them and shoot them in the head, a simple execution. And for a lot of them (including me) there was a sense of calm, a satisfying feeling. These abusers of ‘freedom’ were dealt with. The future innocent art was saved. The art defilers were dealt with. That is the consequence of ‘freedom of speech’, you need to be held accountable. It refers to the very beginning of my blog. On June 19th 2012 I wrote ‘The accountability act – 2015’ in this I wrote “Why 2015? Well an act like this does not grow out of a goose feather and ink jar over night. If we think of a law that could make a real change, and would be a real stop to some of the acts of greed, then it will take time and a lot of effort too.” I gave the powers that could be 3 years to get their act together. As far as I know they never did. And this reverts to a new case, an act that happened that happened on 7 October 2023. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4vw1l8xvdo) gave us ‘Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack’ where we see “Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.” 

The world no matter how it is tweaked by the greed driven need for digital dollars, has had enough of the media at large. There is a (seemingly) staged setting that the world of Sunni Islam is seeing the fallout the world is having. It is happening in nearly all countries in the world. Shia Islam has embraced Terrorism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthi) and the world is basically fed up with this path. Now we see the BBC story and there is a chance that Sunni Islam is isolating Shia Islam and this stage could be used to isolate and invalidate Iran. So as we are given “A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah – the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad. Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.” There is a chance that the Gazan population have had enough of Hamas to the larger degree and this paper might push them to the curve of decisions. Lets see the impact On October 10th we were given “An estimated 75,000 tonnes of explosives have been dropped on Gaza with experts predicting it could take years to clear the debris amounting to more than 42 million tonnes, which is also rife with unexploded bombs. Gaza’s Media Office estimates direct damage caused by Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip at $33bn.” Now as I personally see it, the Gaza Media Office is not impartial and their data is debatable. But we also get from Unitar on September 30th we were given “Those 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.” I feel that this needs to be scrutinised to a much larger degree. The media uses it for digital dollars, they are willing to obfuscate the data as much as they can, but clarity could resolve a lot of issues and Dr Dayah’s fatwa could be a first step to do just that. For the people in Gaza it is imperative that they get clarity. Hamas will not give that. How many people were living in these 163,788 buildings? And this Fatwa was the one thing Iran did not count on. The Iranians are in a bind. They opened the door for Israel to attack them directly, attack their oil reserves. The oil reserves enable the terrorist acts of Iran and when these are gone Iran is in a stale mate with no option but to handover all they thought they gained. The first being the isolation of three terrorist organisation. It will isolate Iran to the largest of degrees and with that gone so do their ‘allies’ China, India and Russia. Russia might hold on as they have other needs, but without oil India and China are pretty much out. It is my personal view on the matter, however this could start a new wave. One that invalidates Iran and give the stability and powers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a new foundation of stability. And lets be clear (and optionally honest) do you really want Iran, the country that embraced terrorism for decades to the largest degree at that table?

This is the setting we are pushed into and lets all hope that it works out for the best. Have a great Monday.

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November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 28, 2024 · 07:43

The setting of coins

The BBC had an interesting article yesterday. I was drawn between two settings. There is nothing wrong with the article. It is a point of view and anyone has that right. My setting was that the dimensionality is wrong. Some see Iran as a wimpy weasel, others as a weaselly wimp. I think they are both at the same time. That is as far as the difference is seen. The BBC in the shape of Jeremy Bowen hands us ‘Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo). I don’t think they look weak, they are weak. When you have to rely on terrorists to bring your message across, you are weak. And the setting that this brings is that a stabilising effect that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brought was torpedoed (for a lack of a better word) by Iran. Iran is so afraid to be the trivialising party in the middle east that they rely on three terrorist entities. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces. 

We are given “They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens” And the options of a bad series of choices is ‘encouraged’ by the west. Politico brought me this month the setting of loopholes that were created to enable other players to sell Russian oil, all legal (which is why we call it a loophole), yet this wasn’t created for Russia. Russia got to exploit the loophole the west made for Iran (my presumptuous thinking). Do you really think that Iran could have played the game this long if they didn’t have that loophole?

We are then given “Iran’s official media in the hours before and after Israel’s attacks carried defiant statements that, at face value, suggest the decision to respond had already been taken. Its language resembles Israel’s, citing its right to defend itself against attack. But the stakes are so high that Iran might decide to walk its threats back” which sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this weasel was hiding behind three terrorist organisation. Hamas has now been bombed back into the stone age and their leaders are hiding in Doha, Qatar (according to some sources). As far as I see it, Gaza did this to themselves. Hezbollah decided to rely on pagers and the top of Hezbollah basically messaged themselves to death. That is number two down. The assault was so complete that pretty much the entire top of Hezbollah blew themselves up. Who ever didn’t do this will follow soon I reckon. Then there is just the Houthi brach left. I reckon that the next 3-5 years amounts to Iran calling that branch with requests for the good of Shia Islam. Not sure how they will bring that news, but it is likely to take on that form. All the money that Iran invested would now be asked to validate through actions. Hamas has seemingly lost around 50% of its fighting force and the rest is dubious of continuing and finding real solutions for their family. Hezbollah has no top, this means that Iran needs to put advisors on the ground, or lose whatever they had left. And the Houthi’s will go in a new direction. As I personally see it, with the recruitment of child soldiers they are taking on the direction Hamas had and as some drone technology that evolved in the Ukraine, we will see soon a new frontier develop where drones can be sent to a generic location and start auto targeting a scope of realistic issues. There is every consideration that whatever drone abilities the Saudi government has will soon gain serious teeth. 

We are then given “Iran’s foreign ministry invoked its right to self defence “as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter”. A statement said Iran believed it was both entitled and obligated to respond to foreign acts of aggression”, this sounds nice, but Iran played the terrorist card and has done so for years, which makes its statement baseless. We can see America ‘pleading’ with Israel not to hit the oil reserves and the loophole for oil makes it a desired move, but Israel has its own concerns. These terrorist actions are funded by Iran and defund their oil is a tactical move to temporary stop funding, making the tactic valid. As we see “The men in Tehran thought they had a better idea than all-out war. Instead, Iran used the allies and proxies in its so-called “axis of resistance” to attack Israel. The Houthis in Yemen blocked and destroyed shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon forced at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes.” We are confronted with the harsh reality that Iran is considering extreme options and that is the final straw for Israel. They could bring to bare 125 missiles on Iranian oil fields and with that Iran will have no more options. A setting that was accelerated since 1979 comes to a stop when the oil becomes to tainted to be sold, it will be the oil that glows in the dark. And the world is fearing that moment. Too many stakeholders with their slice of pie that came from the oil loophole will end and there will be a lot of voices trying to delay this point. On the upside it would enable Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to set some solid work to make these two the solidifying hub of international cooperation on the Arabian peninsula. 

The largest question for the world will be what will Iran decide and they could find a way to make hay out of that. Because any escalation will lead to the end of Iran, a path that started 6000 years ago. It is anyones guess if the Iran of today realises that they are out of survivable options. I see three paths and two remain silent because it amounts (without evidence) to fear mongering. And I am not inclined to openly support that view. The play nice card sounds nice, but it would require Iran to disband sections of the IRGC as well as stop supporting terrorism. Will Iran see that light? When people have been on that violent streak for decades, it is hard to stop. I get that, but does Iran have any resolution left? Empty threats will not bring home the veal as they say.

Well, it’s Monday now, so have a great new day. 

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October 22, 2024 · 07:13

Can you lose more than once?

That is the underlying thought that came to me when I saw the article in CNN (at https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html) stating ‘Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say’, this is an issue (on more than one level). It. Comes with the underlying text “The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity”, we can jump high and low but America (already) has a massive problem. First there was the she-boy Manning, then we got the Airforce gamer Jack Teixeira and the list doesn’t stop there. The initial investigation into Jack Teixeira gave notice to ‘15 Air National Guardsmen disciplined in Discord server leak’. This is a larger issue. I personally do not care how this sails, but consider the following part “How many leaked documents did the Publics Republic of China hand us?” This is the setting that we all face. When we consider the CNN article with “The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.” This implies that the remaining four eyes (namely Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) can now no longer trust America to keep Secret and higher classified documents under wraps. Optionally they are filled with Iranian players (possibly IRGC members) or people with Iranian allegiance. This is a problem, because that setting implies that Aman (military intelligence), Mossad (overseas intelligence) and Shin Bet (internal security) can no longer trust any information to America. 

Screenshot

This is not a joke, Israel has much of the goods (read: actionable intel) in the Middle East, the fact that America is in danger of being cut off from this makes their work harder. Consider actions being considered and the word from the CIA becomes “We don’t know at present” will stop a whole bunch of actions and that implies that America becomes a lot more inactive in the Middle East. This will not hinder China, but this becomes the first clear instance that Chinese intelligence will have the Mustard and America does not. It is also a first peg towards the setting that Saudi and Emirati intelligence would entertain thoughts on some collaboration with China on intelligence and as I see it America has enough problems at present.

Another part is seen with “One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.” A mere addition to the stage is “one of the documents” optionally we get a new view on US intelligence (see below).

And as such the CNN gives us both “A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment” as well as “The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran” which spells trouble for America. The immediate danger for them is that Commonwealth intelligence will become less available. The second danger is that Israeli intelligence will be cut short. That is merely the initial danger. The secondary danger is that both Saudi and Emirati intelligence will close their doors on parties like the CIA, ODNI, DNI, INR, NSA, DIA and that is merely the beginning. There could be a definite setting where the entire intelligence will get an overhaul. In a few years they went from a perspective of being awesome to a close to becoming an absolute joke and this is a field where ‘friends’ will close he doors on you. 

My personal view on this is that the commonwealth needs to close the doors and archives until America finds the leaks in their organisation(s). 

There is a second view in this that this was orchestrated to bind the hands of some, and that is equally a danger as the American navigators can change directions every 4 years. As such the others are almost forced to close their doors until America cleans its houses. 

Well, enjoy your day and according to the CIA, several readers should cut down on the sugar in their coffee.

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October 21, 2024 · 11:34

What is the real deal?

That is the question I have. I am not saying that I have ‘evidence’ but you can judge the information I will hand you now. Early yesterday morning I stumbled upon ‘Saudi Arabia ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to end Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin’ where we are given (at https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/saudi-arabia-comfortable-venue-for-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin/article68773948.ece) “Saudi Arabia will be a ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Saturday (October 19, 2024).” With the ‘supporting’ text ““I repeat once again: we are ready to return. We didn’t interrupt the negotiations. I want to remind you: it was the Ukrainian side that said that it would not continue negotiations with Russia. First. Second. A decree of the President of Ukraine has been issued prohibiting negotiations with us,” said President Putin accusing Ukraine of preventing a solution from emerging.” To be honest, I do not put much faith in the words of Vladimir Putin, as I see it, he is nothing more than a mass murderer of Women, children, aid workers and more. The bombing of the Ukraine might be one of the most disgusting acts against a people since long before the Crusades. An act that makes the acts of Genghis Khan sound like a simple sniffle. 

Then we get the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-672-850-troops-since-feb-24-2022/) handing us ‘General Staff: Russia has lost 672,850 troops since Feb. 24, 2022’, we knew that the Russians were losing a lot of people and we see this below

Apart from the 678,520 soldiers who went the way of the dodo, they also lost 26987 vehicles, 9047 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters, 17,050 drones and a submarine and a few other items. Beside this Russia seems to be toting North Korean hardware and troops. The once mighty Russia is now relying on North Korean troops and weapons. As I personally see it Russia is on the threshold of defeat. The once mighty country that had the west shaking in its boots is now relying on a nation Russia once looked down on is sending troops and hardware. Yes, President Putin is looking for a comfortable place to talk about any solution that sees Russia in an alternative route towards non-defeat. The latter part is not really an option, but he might want to keep the hope up. I personally see that there is another side. China sees the war as a hindrance and they like Saudi Arabia as a winner in any political solution at present. But that is merely my view on the matter. 

Russia needs a scapegoat in all matters and as President Putin made sure all his adversaries have  committed suicide out of windows. He is now left massively out of options and the Saudi setting is now his (presumably) only way out. At this point he might get away with a working military in about a decade as it will take time to replenish 9000 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters and a submarine, preferably in a 21st century setting. As such the Russian steel mills will need to be repurposed and it can afford nothing more until at least 2030. And that is all presuming that Russia wants a working solution at this point, it will cost them dearly as well as the Russian ‘blemish’ that they lost to a global army in 20th position, that is the defeat and larger political loss they face. With the setting in Saudi Arabia he could possibly avert an expulsion from BRICS. At present China and India are considering the gains they make on the global stage if Russia becomes isolated. China gains defence contracts all over the world, India will get several boons all over the commercial field and that is the premise that Russia is now looking at. 

As such the Saudi premise works for Russia, but only if they play nice. Any act that is seen negatively by the Ukraine will be taken harshly and if the Ukraine walks out of these talks Russia’s goose will be cooked, peppered and marinated. As such I have the question. What is the real deal here? I have faith that Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity, as does China. But in this instance it depends on what game President Putin will be playing. Not only does he know that he is with his back to the wall, will he embrace the small options of a massively greater loss is heading his way? I cannot tell, because that requires an insight of a mass murdering mind I do not have.

Have a great day wherever you are.

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