Category Archives: Politics

November 20, 2025 · 10:10

This is weird

I find myself standing up for Microsoft, I know its weird. They have screwed the pooch more than once, but the headline in the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/nov/19/microsoft-nhs-uk-contracts-public-sector-procurement) gives us ‘Microsoft has ‘ripped off the NHS’, says MP amid call for contracts with British firms’, now lets be clear. Microsoft has done many things, but ripping people off is beneath them. If a rippable offence is in play, someone put their autograph (aka John Hancock) on that dotted line. And where is the evidence? And we are pointed to Samantha Niblett, the Labour MP for South Derbyshire, who laughs with a pretty smile and that is all she seemingly does. The evidence given “a five-year deal with the NHS to provide productivity tools reportedly worth over £700m, while the wider government spent £1.9bn on Microsoft software licences in the 2024-25 financial year alone.” Is this evidence? What the hell are you up to Katharine Viner? As editor of the Guardian, this trash should not be in your newspaper, or on the website. At least hand this setting with proper evidence. So as we are also given and that Labour Nibbler gives us “I know for a fact how Microsoft have ripped off the NHS.” But at that point we get “did not provide further evidence, but when the committee chair, Chi Onwurah, voiced surprise at the claim” and to that I say. Miss Niblett, on December 31st 2016 I reported in the story ‘This last day’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2016/12/31/this-last-day/) which was 9 years ago, and you might have been too young to be in politics. But Labour (as well) spend £11.2 billion on a NHS IT project, which amounted to nothing and I reckon it might have been a really big amount of money for nothing. So, are we seeing a second setting to all this and you want to blame Microsoft? Can we see the contracts of understanding? Microsoft does a lot, but they wrap it in contracts which in this case the labour administration under Sir Keir Rodney Starmer is confronted with. 

Then we get “After describing the government’s multibillion-pound deals with Microsoft, Niblett said it “speaks to the … power of Microsoft to lock in public sector … customers and then sort of entice them with cheap deals, and then you’re locked into a contract and then you’re charged exponential amounts” So Microsoft does plenty wrong, but this pat they tend to get right and who signed for these contracts? Was it you? And these contracts also give a correct setting of the amounts. That is how business is done and it is done all over the world. 

And it is then that we get the hidden gem that some were trying to hide “MPs on the select committee said the UK needed to develop greater “sovereign” technology capacity, award more contracts to smaller, local providers, and be less reliant on deals that resulted in government departments becoming locked into services with US firms. Explaining more about her understanding of Microsoft’s deals with the government, Niblett said: “I have heard that Defra [the Department of Food and Rural Affairs] recently signed a contract renewal for Windows 10, which is now out of date. And that has now resulted in them having to pay more for security checks because they’re using a very, very old version of Windows.” There is more than one issue. In the first there is “I have heard” is not evidence, evidence is the contract that Defra signed. Who signed it, was it a valid contract? And then we get “recently signed a contract renewal for Windows 10”, how recent was it signed? Some women claim to they got recently pregnant, but that accident is now 4 years old and as it is given “Windows 10 is a Microsoft operating system that is now out of support as of October 14, 2025”, so does that contract entitle these users to upgrade to Windows 11? The one part that matters is seemingly “becoming locked into services with US firms” which is a valid UK setting, but that is depending on a time set strategy and getting into the strategy AFTER the contract is signed implies you are stuck with the contract, that might not be in the best interest of the Labour administration, but that is not the priority of Microsoft, their part is the contract and adhering to what was signed. So was there any transgression by Microsoft? It is a simple question and the setting of ‘ripped off’ implies they made a booboo and as such that evidence must be given in evidence. Is there any chance that one of more contracts have your autograph as you worked in the data and technology sector before being elected to parliament in 2024, so will we find contracts, possibly with your name on it? Will it show a transgression by Microsoft, or a sloppy mistake by the labour representative who signed it? Simple questions and simple settings that Katharine Viner should see coming a mile away?

Have a great day and if you get the mug below, make sure that coffee is millennium proof, version proof and proofed for 61 degrees celsius liquids. You can test it by putting your finger in the coffee and if you go ‘ouch’ it is probably hot enough.

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November 18, 2025 · 11:34

A story to consider

That is the setting and it is all based on a story. As I see it, it could be a script. A script not written as a technicolor setting in the likes of The Bourne Identity with the one and only Jason Damon. No not like that, it is more like a documentary that his brother Matt Damon narrated in 2010. The movie Inside Job. You see, it is not about the story, it becomes about the narration and the storyline and people look at a documentary differently when it involves people like Bruce Wayne and Tony Stark. Yes, the story can be wielded in many ways. So as we recall the setting of September 14th 2019 where Houthi ‘forces’ attacked Aramco. It was immediately clear that Houthi forces could not have facilitated to that. They lacked infrastructure, trained personal and technical know how to do this. In the end there were three options and I came to the conclusion that Iran and their IRGC were the culprits. So my mind went considering the innovations available to me (my nog) and I came to a few innovations that at that time were merely on a drawing board. So here it is the story of Master Blaster DJ Intelligence and the scoundrel settings of tomorrow. Quite the narration isn’t it?

So as the DJ takes up the mic to blast a few settings. We see that innovation was not standing still. First there was the drone carrier and a reaper drone. The reapers could drop of each two careers at a safe distance. Then the carriers took over and they went on their merry way to deliver the drones. They were also the eyes for an overseer, all whilst the reapers went ack on their merry way. The carriers were strategically placed and from there the drones (six per carrier) were released. So as these drones are set to a target, and for the most it is set via satellite pictures and from there, the drones would be released. The automatic setting would do most of the job, but at times it needs a human eye as pictures can only see so much. And there we have it, The Abadus refinery

A setting we know that it is the largest refinery that Iran has. And now we see 9 targets, each get hit by two drones, explosive drones. And the mess that Iran is settled with is not to be seen as enviable. Basically 18 drones at $4K per drone, a little over $70K will cause billions of damage and the impact of that is seen all over Iran. As such the setting that the IRGC opened themselves up to is not the prettiest sight, it is a setting where a refinery pushing out 429,000 barrels per day and the oldest refinery, taking care of 25% of the fuel production will take millions, if not billions in damage and that is setting Iran back for decades. If there is a second refinery, like the Bandar Abbas Refinery you could cripple Iran for years (optionally) and also production comes at a stand still. So, do you still think attacking Aramco was a good idea? You see, two can play that game and I have plenty of innovative ideas in that regard. Take the reaper drones where two of them could release two careers each and they have up to 6 drones and not all are explosive drones. 1-2 could be spy drones who land at a seldom looked location and spy on the surroundings. And whilst the two reaper drones fly back to load up 4 more carrier drones you could hit both Abadus and Bandar Abbas in that same instance. Just the innovative me tinkering with ideas. 

I wonder how deep that setting exists? You see, they want to do it all, but if the distance is too great, the reaper drones are a safe way to get them to nearby whilst the carrier drones do the last 10% of the trip and release the drones of war. And that story would sound great as the voice of Master blaster DJ Intelligence (go practice you voice Matt). And that setting is an optional new way to bring a story and I reckon that the Saudi’s and in particular Al Saudiya TV would love to bring that story to the Saudi’s. Yes, there was a greed setting, but never in the way you think it was. Entertainment set in motion through the setting of a documentary. I don’t think I have seen that before (the Blair Witch project does not count). And it is all done in the setting of entertainment. The IRGC has been entertaining its population through Hezbollah and Hamas long enough. Time to give them a little entertainment themselves and it tends to come from a direction you never see coming. 

So, what do you say Mr Damon, you on board for this? Have a great day, I am off enjoying my own kind of oil, it is called coffee. 

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November 17, 2025 · 17:07

Is it one or the other?

That is the question I had today/this morning. You see, I saw a few things happen/unfold and it made me think on several other settings. To get there, let me take you through the settings I already knew. The first cog in this machine is American tourism. The ‘setting’ is that THEY (whoever they are) expect a $12.5 billion loss. The data from a few sources already give a multitude of that, the airports, the BNB industry and several other retail settings. Some give others the losses of 12 airports which goes far beyond the $12.5 billion and as I saw it that part is a mere $30-$45 billion, its hard to be more precise when you do not have access to the raw numbers. But in a chain trend Airfares, visas, BNB/hotels, snacks/diversities, staff incomes I got to $80-$135 billion and I think that I was being kind to the situation as I took merely the most conservative numbers, as such the damage could be decently more. 

This is merely the first cog. Second is the Canadian setting of fighters. They have set their minds on the Saab Gripen s such I thought they came for

Silly me, Gripen means Griffin and a Hogwarts professor was eager to assist me in this matter, it was apparently 

Although I have no idea how it can hide that proud flag in the clouds. What does matter that it comes with “SAAB President and CEO Micael Johansson told CTV News that the offer is on the table and Ottawa might see a boost in economic development with the added positions. The deal could be more than just parts and components; Canada may even get the go-ahead to assemble the entire Gripen on its soil.” (Initial source: CTV news) this brings close to 10,000 jobs (which was given by another source) but what non-Canadian people ‘ignore’ is that this will cost the American defense industry billions and when these puppies (that what they call little Griffins) are built in Canada, more orders will follow costing the American Defense industry a lot more. So whilst some sources say that “American tourism is predicted to start a full recovery in 2029” I think that they are overly confident that the mess this administration is making is solved by then. I think that with Vision 2030 and a few others, recovery is unlikely before 2032. And when you consider The news (at https://www.thetravel.com/fifa-world-cup-2026-usa-tourist-visa-integrity-fee-100-day-wait-time-warning-us-consul-general/) by Travel dot com, giving us ‘FIFA World Cup 2026 Travelers Warned Of $435 Fee And 100-Day Delay By U.S. Consul General’ that there is every chance that FIFA will pull the 2026 setting from America and it is my speculation that Yalla Vamos 2030 might be hosting the 2026 and leave 2030 to whomever comes next, which is Saudi Arabia, the initial thought is that they might not be ready at that time, but that is mere speculation from me and there is a chance (a small one) that Canada could step in and do the hosting in Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa, but that would be called ‘smirking speculation’ But the setting behind these settings is that Tourism will likely collapse in America and at that point the Banks of Wall Street will cancel the Credit Cards of America for a really long time and that will set in motion a lot of cascading events all at the same time. Now if you would voice that this would never Tom’s Hardware gave us last week ‘Sam Altman backs away from OpenAI’s statements about possible U.S. gov’t AI industry bailouts — company continues to lobby for financial support from the industry’ If his AI is so spectastic  (a combination of Fantastic and Spectacular) why does he need a bailout? And when we consider this. Microsoft once gave the AI builder a value of a billion dollars and they blew that in under a year on over 600 engineers. So why didn’t Microsoft see that? 600 engineers leave a digital footprint and they have licensed software. Microsoft didn’t catch on? And as we see the ‘unification’ of Microsoft and OpenAI have a connection. Microsoft has an investment in the OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing a 27% stake. So there is a need to ask questions and when that bubble goes, America gets to bail that Windows 3.1 vendor out.

As I see it, don’t ever put all your eggs in one basket and at this point America has all the eggs of its ‘kingdom’ in one plastic bag and it reckon that bag is showing rips and soon enough the eggs fall away into an abyss where Microsoft can’t get to it. The resources will flee to Google, IBM, Amazon and a few other places and it is the other places that will reap havoc on the American economy. So when the tally is made, America has a real problem and this administration called the storm over its own head and I am not alone feeling this way. When you consider the validation and verification of data, pretty much the first step in data related systems you can see that things do not add up and it will not take long for others to see that too. And in part the others will want to prove that THEIR data is sweet and the way they do that is to ask questions of the data of others. A tell tale sign that the bubble is about to implode and at present it is given at ‘Global AI spend to total US$1.5 trillion’ (source: ARNnet) but that puppy has been blown up to a lot more as the speculators that they have a great dane, so when that bubble implodes it will cost a whole lot of people a lot of money. I reckon that it will take until 2026/2027 to hit the walls. Even as Forbes gave us less than 24 hours ago ‘OpenAI Just Issued An AI Risk Warning. Your Job Could Be Impacted’ and they talk about ASI (too many now know that AI doesn’t exist) where we see “Superintelligence is also referred to as ASI (artificial superintelligence) which varies slightly from AGI (artificial general intelligence) in that it’s all about machines being able to exceed even the most advanced and highly gifted cognitive abilities, according to IBM.” And we also get “OpenAI acknowledges the potential dangers associated with advancing AI to this level, and they continue by making it clear what can be anticipated and what will be needed for this experiment to be a safe success” so these statements, now consider the simple facts of Data Verification and Data Validation, when these parts are missing any ‘super intelligence’ merely comes across as the village idiot. I can already see the Microsoft Copilot advertisement “We now offer the copilot with everyones favourite son, the village idiot Clippy II” (OK, I am being mean, I loved my clippy in the Office 95 days) but I reckon you are now getting clued in to the disaster that is coming? 

It isn’t merely the AI bubble, or the American economy, or any of these related settings. It is that they are happening almost at the same time, so a nasdaq screen where all the firms are shown in deep red showing a $10 trillion write-off is not out of the blue. That setting better be clear to anyone out there. This is merely my point of view and I might be wrong to read the data as it is, but I am not alone and more people are seeing the fringe of the speculative gold stream showing it Pyrite origins. Have a great day it is another 2 hours before Vancouver joins us on this Monday. Time for me to consider a nice cup of coffee (my personal drug of choice).

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November 15, 2025 · 02:12

Trumping it along

That is the setting as President Trump proclaimed publicly “We don’t need Canadian lumber” and then Canadian wood product (lumber and utensils too) got a tariff hike. So as American lumber is needed in construction it would not be starting at a 25% depletion of that market (12 billion board feet) is now going somewhere else, Canada has had enough of this bully tactic and that is going to cost America a lot more than ever considered. It is about to cost America well over an additional $23 billion (source: Capital Briefs) and that was merely the start of this. Now the Financial Times gives us ‘Canada to reroute lumber exports as Trump’s tariffs bite’ (at https://www.ft.com/content/e56e8bb0-6dc0-4447-a907-e95164cec8e5) where we see “Canadian producers are seeking to divert around 10 per cent of the lumber normally sent south of the border to new buyers in the UK, EU and Middle East after the US president in September added a 10 per cent tariff on lumber, on top of an existing 35 per cent duty. The aim to send some 1bn board feet to alternative markets — enough to build at least 75,000 average size American homes — underscores how Trump’s tariffs are starting to reshape some global supply chains, although tensions between the US and Canada over wood exports have simmered for more than half a century.” With the added ““The US simply needs to fact-check better before they end up with a large shortage of lumber that may cause further housing shortages,” said Rick Doman, chair of the Forestry Innovation Investment board of British Columbia, which produces over half of Canada’s lumber. Washington’s escalating trade measures towards Ottawa have led to shutdowns and job losses in Canada’s C$87bn ($63bn) forestry industry, one of the country’s largest employers.” We see that Canadians have had enough of the voice from Washington DC, with Canada shifting towards Europe and Asian Markets, as well as stocking up on renewable products the setting becomes a global setting where America can now no longer fuel its own softwood needs driving housing prices through the roof (except for Florida where the Canadian snowbirds are putting their  houses up for sale, leaving in excess of 175,000 houses empty and deserted). That is the setting America no faces and whilst America accuses Canada itself as a dumping ground, they better come up with the evidence and as we see “Zoltan van Heyningen, executive director of the US Lumber Coalition, a lobby group, said the American timber industry could replace 1bn board feet of Canadian imports “without batting an eyelid”” that person better prove to be true to his word, because as it stands Canada is withdrawing over 3 billion board feet of wood. And the NAHB gives us that  “With American sawmills operating at just 64 per cent of capacity it “will take years” for US domestic lumber production to expand to meet industry demands” and in that meantime it will be shredding nearly every environmental document it has, because as I see it, the nearest place it can go to is Washington State and I reckon it will cost a few more pennies to get all these trucks up and going. In the meantime we see that “the US relies on a further 12bn board feet of softwood lumber from Canada for use mostly in housebuilding. Even allowing for spare US sawmill capacity and average recent American exports of 1.3bn board feet a year, the US is currently 3.2bn board feet short of meeting current demand, according to analysis by Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency.” And the ‘graphs’ all show that America depends on almost 30% Canadian wood, when that all falls away its own wood export collapses to zero. And that gives America a new mess to deal with, because Canada is eager to make long term agreements with Europe and Asia, which means that the next administration inherits this mess in 2028 and there is no going back. And as I see it, the bill will be passed on to Weyerhaeuser, West Fraser and Sierra Pacific Industries who will have to increase their produce by almost 50%, to make up for the shortages it faces, so in what reality did you ever see that happen? 

It might sound like an amazing option for these three, but in the American setting it does mean that nearly every environmental agreement will have to be torn up to even make this work. In the meantime Canada is expertly drilling into a $280 billion market and is seemingly doubling that within the next decade, as Canada is now moving from a resource player to more highly valued products, its margins will increase nearly exponentially and is becoming the new innovator on the block and that will ease the pressures that America thought they would hand them, their plan for Canada becoming the 51st state is blowing up in the faces of Politicians in Washington DC and that is the short and sweet of it for Canada. The hardship handed by president Trump is becoming the opportunity for PM Mark Carney. And Canada is loving the outcome of this setting, because as such high value products are to be made in Canada, giving them the setting from $255.20 towards a more then doubled market that is to come and as China replaces America as the number one export country, there will be additional settings there too. An opportunity that Canada will handle with care while in the same time increasing its export to Europe. As I see it, America merely shot itself in the foot (yet again) and that setting is to be crowned as the number one achievement for the Administration carrying that royal crown. It tried to diminish the economic footprint of its northern partner, instead it opened a new revenue handle and increased its export standing with both the EU and China. And as I see it, at no significant initial loss to Canada and over the next few years it will show a significant surplus to boot. 

A setting the Commonwealth prices and a big round of applause is handed in the direction of Prime Minister Mark Carney who is now seen as the big winner (perhaps he will accept a Nobel peace price in 2026?)

Well, you all have a great day and special mention for Capitol Brief and the Financial Times for their support in this. It is 02:00 now. Time for me to introduce myself to the procedure of snoring.

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November 13, 2025 · 10:22

Labels

That is the setting and I introduce the readers to this setting yesterday, but there was more and there always is. Labels is how we tend to communicate, there is the label of ‘Orange baboon’ there is the label of ‘village idiot’ and there are many more labels. They tend to make life ‘easy’ for us. They are also the hidden trap we introduce to ourselves. In the ‘old’ days we even signify Business Intelligence by this, because it was easy for the people running these things. 

And example can be seen in

TABLES
 / v1 v2 v3 v4 v5 BY (LABELS)
 / count.

And we would see the accommodating table with on one side completely agree, agree, neutral, disagree and completely disagree, if that was the 5 point labeling setting we embraced and as such we saw a ‘decently’ complete picture and we all agreed that this was that is had to be.

But the not so hidden snag is that in the first these labels are ordinal (at best) and the setting of Likert scales (their official name) are not set in a scientific way, there is no equally adjusted difference between the number 1,2,3,4,5. That is just the way it is. And in the old days this was OK (as the feeling went). But today in what she call the AI setting and I call it NIP at best, the setting is too dangerous. Now, set this by ‘todays’ standards.

The simple question “Is America bankrupt?” Gets all kinds of answers and some will quite correctly give us “In contrast, the financial health of the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets. A much different picture appears once one looks at the underlying asset base of the private and public economy.” I tend to disagree, but that is me without me economic degrees. But in the AI world it is a simple setting of numbers and America needs Greenland and Canada to continue the retention that “the United States is relatively healthy within the context of the total value of U.S. assets”, yes that would be the setting but without those two places America is likely around bankrupt and the AI bubble will push them over the edge. At least that is how I see it and yesterday I gave one case (or the dozen or so cases that will follow in 2026) in that stage this startup is basically agreeing to a larger then 2 billion settlement. So in what universe does a startup have this money? That is the constriction of AI, and in that setting of unverified and unscaled data the presence gets to be worse. And I remember a answer given to me at a presentation, the answer was “It is what it is” and I kinda accepted it, but an AI will go bonkers and wrong in several ways when that is handed to it. And that is where the setting of AI and NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) becomes clear. NIP is merely a 90’s chess game that has been taught (trained) every chess game possible and it takes from that setting, but the creative intellect does an illogical move and the chess game loses whatever coherency it has, that move was never programmed and that is where you see the difference between AI and NIP. The AI will creatively adjust its setting, the NIP cannot and that is what will set the stage for all these class actions. 

The second setting is ‘human’ error. You see, I placed the Likert scale intentionally, because in between the multitude of 1-5 scales there is one likely variable that was set to 5-1 and the programmers overlooked them and now when you see these AI training grounds at least one variable is set in the wrong direction, tainting the others and massing with the order of the adjusted personal scales. And that is before we get to the result of CLUSTER and QUICKCLUSTER results where a few more issues are introduced to the algorithm of the entire setting and that is where the verification of data becomes imperative and at present.

So here is a sort of random image, but the question it needs to raise is what makes these different sources in any way qualified to be a source? In this case if the data is skewed in Ask Reddit, 93% of the data is basically useless and that is missed on a few levels. There are quality high data sources, but these are few and far in-between, in the mean time these sources get to warp any other data we have. And if you are merely looking at legacy data, there is still the Likert scale data you in your own company had and that data is debatable at best. 

Labels are dangerous and they are inherently based on the designer of that data source (possible even long dead) and it tends to be done in his of her early stages of employment, making the setting even more debatable as it was ‘influenced’ by greedy CEO’s and CFO’s and they had their bonus in mind. A setting mostly ignored by all involved. 

As such are you surprised that I see the AI bubble to what it is? A dangerous reality coming our way in sudden likely unforeseen ways and it is the ‘unforeseen way’ that is the danger, because when these disgruntled employees talk to those who want to win a class action, all kinds of data will come to the surface and that is how these class actions are won. 

It was a simple setting I saw coming a mile away and whilst you wandered by I added the Dr. Strange part, you merely thought you had the labels thought through but the setting was a lot more dangerous and it is heading straight to your AI dataset. All wrongly thought through, because training data needs to have something verifiable as ‘absolutely true’ and that is the true setting and to illustrate this we can merely make a stop at Elon Musk inc. Its ‘AI’ grok having the almost prefect setting. We are given from one source “The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions.” Which is almost a dangerous setting towards people fueling Grok in a multitude of ways and ‘Hundreds of thousands of Grok chats exposed in Google results’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrkmk00jy0o) where we see “The appearance of Grok chats in search engine results was first reported by tech industry publication Forbes, which counted more than 370,000 user conversations on Google. Among chat transcripts seen by the BBC were examples of Musk’s chatbot being asked to create a secure password, provide meal plans for weight loss and answer detailed questions about medical conditions.” Is there anybody willing to do the honors of classifying that data (I absolutely refuse to do so) and I already gave you the headwind in the above story. In the fist how many of these 370,000 users are medical professionals? I think you know where this is going. And I think Grok is pretty neat as a result, but it is not academically useful. At best it is a new form of Wikipedia, at worst it is a round data system (trashcan) and even though it sounds nice, it is as nice as labels can be and that is exactly why these class cases will be decided out of court and as I personally see it when these hit Microsoft and OpenAI will shell over trillions to settle out of court, because the court damage will be infinitely worse. And that is why I see 2026 as the year the graded driven get to start filling to fill their pockets, because the mindful hurt that is brought to court is as academic as a Likert scale, not a scientific setting among them and the pre-AI setting of Mental harm as ““Mental damage” in court refers to psychological injury, such as emotional trauma or psychiatric conditions, that can be the basis for legal claims, either as a plaintiff seeking compensation or as a criminal defendant. In civil cases, plaintiffs may seek damages for mental harm like PTSD, depression, or anxiety if they can prove it was caused by another party’s negligent or wrongful actions, provided it results in a recognizable psychiatric illness.” So as you see it, is this enough or do you want more? Oh, screw that, I need coffee now and I have a busy day ahead, so this is all you get for now.

Have a great day, I am trying to enjoy Thursday, Vancouver is a lot behind me on this effort. So there is a time scale we all have to adhere to (hidden nudge) as such enjoy the day.

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November 12, 2025 · 14:05

Lost thoughts

The is where I am, lost in thoughts. Drawn between my personal conviction that the AI bubble is real and the set fake thoughts on LinkedIn and Youtube making ‘their’ case on the AI bubble. One is set on thoughts of doubts considering the technology we are currently at, the other thoughts are all fake perceptions by influencers trying to gain a following. So how can any one get any thought straight? Yet in all these there are several people in doubt on their own set (justified) fringes. One of them is ABC who gives us ‘US risks AI debt bubble as China faces its ‘arithmetic problem’, leading analysts warn’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-11/marc-sumerlin-federal-reserve-michael-pettis-china/105992570) So in the first setting, what is the US doing with the AI debt? Didn’t they learn their lesson in 2008? In the first setting we get “Mr Sumerlin says he is increasingly worried about a slowing economy and a debt bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.” That is fair (to a certain degree) a US Federal Reserve chair contender has the economic settings, but as I look back to 2008, that game put hundreds of thousands on the brink of desperation and now it isn’t a boom of CDO’s and stocks. Now it is a dozen firms who will demand an umbrella from that same Federal Reserve to stay in business. And Mr. Sumerlin gives us “He is increasingly concerned about a slowdown in the US economy, which is why he thinks the Fed needs to cut interest rates again in December and perhaps a couple more times next year.” I cannot comment on that, but it sounds fair (I lack economic degrees) and outside of this AI bubble setting we are given “US President Donald Trump has recently posted on his social media account about giving all Americans not on high incomes, a $US2,000 tariff “dividend” — an idea which Mr Sumerlin, a one-time economic adviser to former US president George W Bush, said could stoke inflation.” I get it, but it sounds unfair, the idea that an AI bubble is forming is real, the setting that people get a dividend that could stoke inflation might be real (they didn’t get the money yet) but they are unrelated inflation settings and they could give a much larger rise to the dangers of the AI bubble but that doesn’t make it so. The bubble is already real because technology is warped and the class cases we will see coming in 2026 is base on ‘allegedly fraudulent’ sales towards the AI setting and if you wonder what happens, is that these firms buying into that AI solution will cry havoc (no return on AI investment) when that happens and it will happen, of that I have very little doubt. 

So then we get to the second setting and that is the clam that ‘China has an arithmetic problem’, I am at a loss as to what they mean and the ABC explanation is “But if you have a GDP growth target, and you can’t get consumption to grow more quickly, you can’t allow investment to grow more slowly because together they add up to growth. They’re over-invested almost across the board, so policy consists of trying to find out which sectors are least likely to be harmed by additional over-investment.”

Professor Pettis said that, to curry favour with the central government, local governments had skewed over-investment into areas such as solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and other industries deemed a priority by Beijing.” This kinda makes sense to me, but as I see it, that is an economic setting, not an AI setting. What I think is happening that both USA and China have their own bubble settings and these bubbles will collide in the most unfortunate ways possible. 

But there is also a hindsight. As I see it Huawei is chasing their own AI dream in a novel way that relies on a mere fraction of what the west needs and as I see it, they will be coming up short soon, a setting that Huawei is not facing at present and as I see it, they will be rolling out their centers in multiple ways when the western settings will be running out of juice (as the expression goes). 

Is this going to happen? I think so, but it depends on a number of settings that have not played out yet, so the fear is partially too soon and based on too little information. But on the side I have been powering my brain to another setting. As time goes I have ben thinking through the third Dr. Strange movie and here I had the novel idea which could give us a nice setting where the strain is between too rigid and too flexible and it is a (sort of) stage between Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) and Baron Mordo (Chiwetel Ejiofor) the idea was to set the given stage of being too rigid (Mordo) against overly flexible (Strange) and in-between are the settings of Mordo’s African village and as Mordo is protecting them we see the optional settings that Kraven (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) get involved and that gets Dr. Strange in the mix. The nice setting is that neither is evil, they tend to fight evil and it is the label that gets seen. Anyway that was a setting I went through this morning. 

You might wonder why I mentioned this. You see, Bubbles are just as much labels as anything and it becomes a bubble when asset prices surge rapidly, far exceeding their intrinsic value, often fueled by speculation and investor orgasms. This is followed by a sharp and sudden market crash, or “burst,” when prices collapse, leading to significant rather weighty losses for investors. And they will then cry like little girls over the losses in their wallets. But that too is a label. Just like an IT bubble, the players tend to be rigid and whole focussed on their profits and they tend to go with the ‘roll with it’ philosophy and that is where the AI is at present, they don’t care that the technology isn’t ready yet and they do not care about DML and LLM and they want to program around the AI negativity, but that negativity could be averted in larger streams when proper DML information if given to the customers and they dug their own graves here as the customer demands AI, they might not know what it is (but they want it) and they learned in Comic Books what AI was, and they embrace that. Not the reality given by Alan Turing, but what Marvel fed them through Brainiac. And there is a overlap of what is perceived and what is real and that is what will fuel the AI bubble towards implosion (a massive one) and I personally reckon that 2026 will fuel it through the class actions and the beginning is already here. As the Conversation hands us “Anthropic, an AI startup founded in 2021, has reached a groundbreaking US$1.5 billion settlement (AU$2.28 billion) in a class-action copyright lawsuit. The case was initiated in 2024 by novelist Andrea Bartz and non-fiction writers Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson.” Which we get from ‘An AI startup has agreed to a $2.2 billion copyright settlement. But will Australian writers benefit?’ (At https://theconversation.com/an-ai-startup-has-agreed-to-a-2-2-billion-copyright-settlement-but-will-australian-writers-benefit-264771) less then 6 weeks ago. And the entire AI setting has a few more class actions coming their way. So before you judge me on being crazy (which might be fair too) the news is already out there, the question is what lobbyists are quieting down the noise because that is noise according to their elected voters. You might wonder how one affect the other. Well, that is a fair question, but it hold water, as these so called AI (I call them Near Intelligent Parses, or NIP) require training materials and when the materials are thrown out of the stage, there is no learning and no half baked AI will holds its own water and that is what is coming. 

A simple setting that could be seen by anyone who saw the technology to the degree it had to. Have a great day this mid week day.

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November 10, 2025 · 06:22

Shooting birds

This is a setting that is up in the air (quite literally) the setting that America is shooting its own economic plan in the foot so to say. There is something wrong with the animosity that America is throwing into the direction of Canadians and as I see it, their new target are the snowbirds. The Guardian informed me last night that ‘Trump tariffs and strict US border rules threaten flight of Canada’s ‘snowbirds’’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/09/canada-snowbirds-florida) where we see “Many have ditched plans to visit their southern neighbor and are looking to spend their valuable dollars elsewhere, largely put off by Donald Trump’s escalating economic war with Canada and strict new immigration rules that have created fear and confusion.” With the additional “Canada’s own tourism industry, meanwhile, is reporting record revenue. Buoyed by visitors who decided to stay home, the sector took in CA$59bn ($42bn) from May to August, a 6% increase on 2014. (American visitors to Canada dropped 1.7% during that same period.)” And whilst we see almost everywhere “International tourism to the US is forecast to decline by around $12.5 billion to $29 billion in 2025” we get from others sources that their income is increasing a lot more, as such I stay with my conservative losses to be predicted between $80-$130 billion, and now the snowbirds with their “More than half of Canadians with homes in the US – 54% – are considering selling in the next 12 months, with 62% of those citing the political situation as their main reason, according to research published in August.” This comes from Royal LePage, where we also get “According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, more than half (54%) of Canadians who currently own residential property in the U.S. say they are planning to sell within the next year, among whom a majority (62%) credit the current political administration as the main reason. Meanwhile, 33 per cent of them say they are motivated by other factors, such as personal and financial reasons, and another five per cent say it is due to increasingly extreme weather conditions, like hurricanes, flooding and forest fires.” Which gets us an additional part, but that too will be hard on America, they are investing it domestically in Canada. So, as we consider “While some blame a weak Canadian dollar and rising travel costs for their decision not to travel, 40% also cite political tensions with the US. Trump has frequently assailed Canada and its political leaders, recently retaliating for an anti-tariff advertisement posted by the Ontario government by slapping an additional 10% tariff on imports from a country he has repeatedly taunted as the 51st state.” A lot might see this is trivial, but as a Commonwealthian I adhere to the foul stench that the “51st state” is making. In the meantime we see politicians not being sworn in because they are on the other side of the isle, the US shutdown is now the longest in history and for the second day the airlines are buckling as over 1000 flights have been cancelled with the additional “Nearly 6,000 flights were also delayed, down from over 7,000 delays on Friday, according to flight tracker FlightAware” (source: BBC) so as I see it America is bleeding revenue all over the nation and directly from their veins into the streets and all this is happening 2 weeks before Thanksgiving. Yes, my view of $80-$130 billion really was conservative as all the trimmings that Thanksgiving would bring is now about to grease the coils of loss, on the other hand Turkey is likely to be on sale soon with a nice 75% discount. But the hardest part was seen down that article as those readers were given “And things will likely get worse in the coming days as the FAA increases the percentage of cancelled flights.” Because those people n need an alternative destination. I will offer the thought that Dubai and Abu Dhabi have both really nice weather conditions this time of year, with a special mention of Abu Dhabi with all their theme parks as a Florida replacement. These losses are enlarged by the setting that the snowbirds bring, the quote “Analysts say any significant drop in snowbird visits could be catastrophic for states where they are among the biggest spenders during the winter months. The snowbird economy brings in an estimated $20.5bn annually in direct spending, property and sales taxes, and supports millions of jobs, especially in tourism, hospitality and retail”, so as I see it, the economy of Florida is about to take a handful of downers from the get go, and all this sets the the outlook of Thanksgiving in places like Florida with a grim undertone, because when all things settle it will take years to get over this and if the Snowbirds leave, the economy will take a massive his in Florida and likewise places for years to come. 

So when. We get to “Valorie Crooks of Simon Fraser University said the more obstacles that are placed in the path of snowbirds, the more likely they are to take themselves, and their money, elsewhere, such as Mexico, the second most popular destination for Canadian winter travelers.” The fun part is that this would enable places like Abu Dhabi too, when these people realise that there is a lot they would love, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan might want to consider advertising the splendor to Canada and Canadians. That would grease the lining of the Abu Dhabi economy by a fair bit and there is plenty of material on YouTube that Canadians can see for themselves. And the setting of a zero tax state is beneficial in a few more ways. 

Overall there are plenty of alternatives for people visiting America and as its government is shutdown, there are many more ways to look elsewhere for the needs of these people. And funny enough, Americans might not like it, but they elected their curse to office themselves. So how is this Big Beautiful America, has it been made great, or was that presented silver lining the start of many dark clouds? And as I saw my losses to $80-$130 billion, CBS reported that this shutdown is costing the Americans in the setting of “Estimates of the economic hit from the U.S. government shutdown put the losses at up to $16 billion every week the impasse continues” as such my model of loss was severely conservative as I never considered the impact of a US shutdown. As I see it, America made a huge error going on the Snowbird hunt, and it could have been prevented on several levels. Try to have a great day today.

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November 8, 2025 · 16:33

Is it a bird, it is Superman?

Nope, it is a plane and it is heading for Saudi Arabia as we read (at https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2025/11/08/saudi-arabia-to-buy-48-f-35-worth-142-billion/) ‘Saudi Arabia to Buy 48 Most Expensive Fighter Jet in the World Worth $142 Billion’, as such the first hurdle of the Pentagon has allegedly been passed. We are given “Saudi Arabia’s request for F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters is reportedly progressing within the Pentagon, according to sources cited by Reuters. The move could make Riyadh (RUH) the first Arab nation to field a fifth-generation stealth jet, breaking Israel’s exclusive control of the platform in the region.” And let’s face it, they can afford these bad boys. And it would make any Russian equipped Iranian flight force obsolete. Some say the best air force is one you never have to fly. I disagree. I say  “I prefer the air force  you only have to fly once. That’s how the veterans did it, that’s how allies do it, and it’s worked out pretty well so far” (yes, I stole this quote from Iron Man, so sue me) it is like Australia being attacked by New Zealand in Sopwith Camels in the past, it never went anywhere. As such these 48 birds will await with baited breath for Iran to make a silly mistake and it will be the last mistake they will ever make. I reckon that these 48 can take on at least 98 of their Sukhoi Su-57 and Russia (at present) seemingly only made 29 of them, the rest is outstanding, as such Iran will no longer have options in the air as soon as the first set of these bad boys arrive. 

I never understood the reluctance to sell these planes to their own ally, but in the end it seems that Saudi Arabia is getting them. And when we see “The potential sale aligns with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s defense agenda, as his administration approved a $142 billion arms package for the Kingdom in May 2025. Although the F-35 was initially excluded, the latest discussions suggest it has now advanced to the Defense Secretary level, signaling renewed momentum.” This event started in 2017 and it appears that Prince Khalid bin Salman Al Saud (who was elected to this position in 2022) did not wander in the situation, as it seems he went in and got the job done. This is no attack on its predecessor as the American administration had been dragging its feet since day one (a presumption that I am making) but now the good news is flying all over the Arabian peninsula and as I see it a defeat by horse no show through Iran. 

In opposition I see “Tel Aviv has repeatedly emphasized its right to maintain military superiority under U.S. law, which restricts Washington from supplying equivalent systems to neighboring states”, I am in opposition here as Iran is the danger and Israel knows this. Saudi Arabia had been adamant on protecting its own borders and this will do this. And as I see it, the Israeli response is (seemingly) ludicrous. With “Israeli officials and defense analysts have voiced concern that F-35 deliveries to Saudi Arabia could erode this advantage. They warn that potential technology transfers to Russia, China, or Iran—however speculative—could compromise sensitive systems.” It is a decent preemptive fear to have, but as Iran is no friend of Saudi Arabia and handing any technology to Russia would only make it stronger seems to be a weird fear to have. I get that Israel has these fears but as Saudi Arabia needs its own borders secure, I reckon that this is too far fetched a fear to have. It’s like I would have a fear being attacked by Piranha’s, all whist the closest lake is miles away. 

So I reckon that there will be salutes and felicitations going all over Riyadh at present.

Have a great day and don’t have too many dreams on Australia being attacked by Sopwith Camels, they don’t have the range to make it from Wellington to Sydney.

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November 7, 2025 · 21:02

A new PSP

Yup, we are about to go there, but first a thing that stumps me. They just approved the pay package of Elon Musk, 1 trillion dollars, or a million times a million dollars. That amounts to he is making what I will do in 50,000 years and he does it in one. So he made the lifetime equivalent of 600 people. I merely cannot grasp this amount. I can get against that. Honestly I do not get it. There is no oppressive setting, no envy, no jealousy (well, a little, and that is fair) and we see the setting. But do you? A board had to vote, even with this he is making them all money. And that is what matters in today’s industry. So think about that. Even beyond their settings of making THEM money, he is still doing that after getting a trillion dollars. We are that in the dark on what is coming after us all. But that is not what matters to me now. As I said, there is a new PSP on the horizon. It is not from Sony, it is from me. The Political Speculation Party. You see the world is changing and this morning I got the news from the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3xw3dw0zxo) ‘Nancy Pelosi announces retirement after decades in US Congress’ and we are given “Nancy Pelosi has announced her retirement from Congress, ending a decades-long career that saw the California Democrat become one of the most powerful figures in US politics.

In a video message on Thursday, Pelosi said she will not be seeking re-election to Congress at the end of her term in January 2027.” And then it hit me, with President Trump now hitting a low 37%, it means that even most of the Republicans want someone else and they will elect whomever get them out of this mess and it is fair to say that Nancy Pelosi is a real heavy weight and after President Trump messed up America, they will accept anyone that could make things better and as I see it Pelosi is the best the Democrats have. Nothing less will do and as I personally see it, The next president making it the 48th President is likely to become President Nancy Pelosi of California. 

Yes, it is a mere speculation as the there is plenty to go around, but the BBC article easily ‘very’ outspoken about things like “It marks the end of a storied political career: Pelosi, 85, became the first woman to serve as Speaker of the House and led her party in the lower chamber of Congress from 2003 until 2023.” This felt ‘off’ and when you think of it, Congresswoman Pelosi would make an excellent candidate. A setting that too many are ignoring and that would also hand the Democrats the first female American president in history and Nancy Pelosi is respected on both sides of the isle, especially from the times she was the 52nd Speaker of the United States House of Representatives. She made a good deal of friends during that time and as I see it, she would make a great president, especially after the one they have now. Well anyone would make a better president after the present one. But as he is loving his own spin, America is in a tailspin to the bottom of the deepest ocean and that has plenty of Republicans rattled, then there is the lack of funding America is dealing with, as such, as I personally see it, President Pelosi is their way out of a tailspin and there is the question if it will be soon enough. There is a lot more damage the current administration can do to before 2028. But that is what I see and there is little doubt that the next president will be a Democratic one, but will it become President Pelosi? 

Your guess is as good as mine, but that is why I call it the Speculation party, because I am not much of a political wielder, but I can see through the thick of BS and this is what I see. Do you see it differently? Feel free to enlighten the world. Have a great day today. 

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November 7, 2025 · 01:52

Blame who?

You see, we all like to blame the first party we see and the richer that person is, the more guilty he can be painted. That was the setting I saw in the Reuters story (at https://www.reuters.com/investigations/meta-is-earning-fortune-deluge-fraudulent-ads-documents-show-2025-11-06/) where we are given ‘Meta is earning a fortune on a deluge of fraudulent ads, documents show’ and the underlying text “Meta projected 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads for scams and banned goods, documents seen by Reuters show. And the social media giant internally estimates that its platforms show users 15 billion scam ads a day. Among its responses to suspected rogue marketers: charging them a premium for ads – and issuing reports on ’Scammiest Scammers.’” Seems to lay the blame squarely in the lap of Sir Mark Anthony Zacharias of the Zacharians from the city of Rome (I need to introduce drama here) but is that correct? I am not claiming he is innocent, but is it completely there? Or is there another side to this. You see, Meta, Facebook and legions others are in that same setting. What brings out the stage of Meta is the numbers of ‘willing to be fooled fish’ in that batter. And when we are given “A cache of previously unreported documents reviewed by Reuters also shows that the social-media giant for at least three years failed to identify and stop an avalanche of ads that exposed Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp’s billions of users to fraudulent e-commerce and investment schemes, illegal online casinos, and the sale of banned medical products.” We see the blame and the blame at the top of the hill is a youthful young sprout (41) called Mark Zuckerberg with his $251,000 million in his wallet (I am willing to wager that this amount does not fit in his wallet) and there is a reason for my approach here. You see, everyone is so happy that there is a setting for advertisements and that ball is thrown all over the place and as I personally see it, I reckon that LinkedIn is in a similar place and there another setting exists. The scammers place an job ad in LinkedIn and from there they get their pool of optional gophers to dig into. In the last week I have had over half a dozen scam attempts and I believe the source to be LinkedIn. As such I have a different setting. I reckon it becomes a massive essential development to tackle the Advertisement settings of these settings. Better protection is required and larger systems are required to vet the advertisers. I know that all kinds of people will object for whatever reason, but that means that you do not get to whine if you are scammed. And what about the FTC? The FTC has primary responsibility for determining whether specific advertising is false or misleading, and for taking action against the sponsors of such material. You can report consumer fraud to the FTC. So what did they have to say? And that becomes interesting as the Article by Jeff Horwitz does not mention the FTC, not even once. So what did they have to say? Or was the win here to paint the guy with the big wallet? So how does that play out with LinkedIn, what about TikTok (I am not on TikTok, so I am clueless here), I also dropped Facebook over a year ago. 

But the setting is clear, the Reuters story is massively not-finished. And there is a bigger setting. We went with the old settings and applied them to social media, but there are different rules that need to be applied and a simple portal or over the phone advertisement sale will not be sufficient for the safety of the consumers getting scammed. So, basically I am merely on LinkedIn and as such (with the scammers to try me) there is every chance that they have a similar problem and in that setting there are several job sites that need thorough sanitation (my personal view) because they are in the setting that every advertiser is revenue in the bank and that is not always the case. 

So the short and sweet of it is that there is little doubt that Mark Zuckerberg holds some of the blame, some, not all. Because as I see it, the FTC has a much bigger problem. And where is the Federal Trade Commission in all of this? And when we see “A cache of previously unreported documents reviewed by Reuters also shows that the social-media giant for at least three years failed to identify and stop an avalanche of ads that exposed Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp’s billions of users to fraudulent e-commerce and investment schemes, illegal online casinos, and the sale of banned medical products.” As such the FTC remained dumb dumb for over three years? And Reuters never fave that any thought? Neither did many other players and the FTC never went to the media saying that the advertisements require a larger overhaul giving them a new setting of hunting down scammers. And as most of them are abroad, other settings need to be considered, but Reuters missed that part too.

Have a great day and if you get an email from a prince in Nigeria telling you that you inherited a million dollars, there is a chance that this is not on the up and up.

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