Tag Archives: Hamas

January 7, 2025 · 08:49

UN Redundant Whining Association

Let’s see how we could optionally expose the media and set a department of the UN to the trashcan of useless to the maximum degree. It is a ride that has seen some time. The first part we got around late July 2024. The rumours went round and at some point the UN decided to put a stop to it and on August 5th (at https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/investigation-completed-allegations-unrwa-staff-participation-7-october) we were given under the headline ‘Allegations on UNRWA staff participation in the 7 October attacks’. There we see “I acknowledge the completion of the investigation by the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) into the serious allegations that 19  area UNRWA staff members in Gaza were involved in the abhorrent attacks of 7 October on southern Israel” with the added “In April, an independent Agency-wide review by three reputable research centres under the leadership of former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna concluded that UNRWA ‘possesses a more developed approach to neutrality than other similar UN or NGO entities’. The Agency has started implementing the recommendations of the review” and is fully committed to them.” Now we can accept that for what it is (I do not), but the massive takeaways here in this brief are ‘the completion of the investigation by the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS)’, ‘an independent Agency-wide review by three reputable research centres’ and ‘UNRWA ‘possesses a more developed approach to neutrality than other similar UN or NGO entities’’ as such we could surmise that the UNRWA is well versed in tradecraft, they even pulled the wool over the eyes of the French foreign minister and three ‘reputable’ research centres. The other option is that these four players were in league with Hamas which I find unrealistic. 

Less then 24 hours ago we were given (at https://nypost.com/2025/01/06/us-news/un-watchdog-group-urges-dismantlingly-of-unrwa-for-enabling-crimes-gainst-humanity/) ‘UN watchdog group urges dismantling of UNRWA for ‘enabling crimes against humanity’’ we get the added “A United Nations watchdog group says the infamous UN relief agency that provides $1.5 billion a year to Palestinians should be disbanded for colluding with terrorists and “enabling crimes against humanity.” “The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is neither independent nor neutral,” says a scathing new report by the Swiss-based group UN WATCH.” So, why did the OIOS miss this? More important, as we see that several Israeli news sources gave us parts of this already, why were these parts (as I see it) intentionally overlooked? It was not by all media, but the largest collection of media courtesans merely used part of the past news as a source for (as I personally see it) pursuit of digital dollars. And it took the watchdog some time to figure this out. Which I do not hold against them. But the larger setting is reached. The United Nations is as useless as some say they are and now in the setting with Trump and Musk, we can safely set the premise that the UN is a cost that the United States can avoid having.  As I see it António Guterres will have to do a lot more than smooth talking. There might be a setting where the UN could be disbanded. There is every cause to consider that the organisation’s 37,000 staff members could find themself thrown of that gravy train. To illustrate further I offer the image below. I cannot vouch for the numbers, but the image is powerful. So don’t use these numbers as is, trust but verify I say and so did some marine named Gibbs.

What it does show is that the UNRWA is as useless as some expect them to be and the crying newscasts we see now like ‘7 infants dead in Gaza from cold weather, inadequate shelter: UNRWA’ and ‘Social order in Gaza will collapse if Israel ends cooperation with UN aid agency, official says’ it is too late for that, the UNRWA is done for (unless massive amounts of evidence ‘suddenly’ comes forward. We saw in the beginning of December aid from the UAE get to Gaza. In the day after that we see armed masked men (supposedly Hamas) drive of with a whole stack of these boxes. We cannot hold the UAE on that, they did the almost unthinkable, they found hundreds of volunteer who created these care packages in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. What happens in Gaza becomes the question. So was the UNRWA involved? Or was Hamas merely a block away collecting these boxes? Your guess (or speculation) is as good as mine. However, when we consider the timeline from August I have to conclude that Hamas is the cancer on the Palestine people and they will not ever find release unless Hamas has been eradicated. 

It is a harsh reality we see here (I saw that about a year ago). But change has to happen and disbanding the UNRWA might be a first requirement.

Have a great day.

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December 2, 2024 · 00:04

When it rains, it pours

That was the very first thought I had when I was confronted with the opinion piece in the Middle East Monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241129-saudi-arabia-abandons-pursuit-of-us-defence-treaty-over-israel-stalemate/) where we see ‘Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US defence treaty over Israel stalemate’. I have said it before and I will say it again. The US needs to stop their stop gap resolution of “We can do this, if we can have….” That is a setting that is past tense. America needs to open all valves to get any revenue out of Saudi Arabia (and other nations there). Now that we see “Saudi Arabia is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters” the US needs to stop its appeasement trajectory. On the plus side China is pretty happy with that flawed approach from America. There is every chance that China will open the flood gates and let Saudi Arabia go nuts on the Chengdu J-20. 

Is this a given? Nope, but for others to see Saudi Arabia embracing the J-20 is the first sign that America is about to lose several contracts. Not all (it fits with the modest military cooperation agreement setting) I predicted a loss of 40% towards the US defense contracts and so far there are indications that 30 billion left American shores for Europe and China (unverified numbers). But the first stage has been reached. And the setting changes if this does happen. The American loans are set to a 90%-95% fulfilment of contracts and there are larger consideration that America will at best get 60%-65% restated for America. And it gets worse for the US, Saudi Arabia has stated to grow its national defense settings and if China makes that happen all whilst Antony Blinken remains in the appeasement setting, the losses will get worse. I speculate a lot worse, but I don’t have access to anything reliable for the numbers in that game. As such, I need to add the ‘speculation’ label as I haven’t been connected to defence parties for 42 years. 

We are also given “Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian State” I understand that setting, but I personally belief that this should be done after the eradication of Hamas. Saudi Arabia has been under attack through Iranian proxies for too long and as such the three terrorist organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi their eradication becomes a near essential. You want to doubt this? That’s fair but the essential setting becomes that Iran wants to stop the achievements of Neom (including Sindalah, the Line, Trojena, Oxagon and Magna). At some point One of these three parties will be added to the work roster of them and they will introduce small flaws, flaws that might not be noticed now, but in a year or two when things start to go wrong, the costs will enormous. An Iran will be quiet for a larger share of the table that is how it starts and Saudi Arabia is too far ahead now. If we want to protect the achievements of Saudi Arabia eradicating Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah forces becomes the larger setting. All those weakhearted lefties will argue that these people are really sorry and should be forgiven. I say hell with that and eradicate them all. Or have you all forgotten how Saudi Arabia was on the verge of setting the larger stage to include Israel? Some will say that Hamas was brilliant and I say that this is the final straw setting the stage of eradication for these three puppets of Iran. And Iran knows that Israel is about to settle the attacks on the territory of Israel and that would escalate things even further. Now that will happen in two stages. In the first the attacks that Hezbollah will vie for and the threats from Iran takes it even further. The danger here is that Iran could ‘press’ Houthi forces further and that would force the hand of Saudi Arabia. In that stage China could proceed by handing Saudi Arabia a support setting of the Chengdu J-20 as well as the primary delivery of the speculated Xi’an H-20. I reckon that it is not completed yet, but they could hand 3 of these puppies to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudi Airforce could strike against the Houthi Forces. (I did say could, not will). Consider that these two planes would be readily sought by other Arabian nations (including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq) this is largely speculative, but it allows China to take more and more slices from American defence industries. And as this happens Iran needs to hide, because these choices would reduce the Houthi forces to next to nothing and at that point Iranian actions would fall flat and at that point Israel has options and Hamas should have none left. 

As such the Saudi war hammer will carve slices of Yemen to rubble. In all this there are two sides that matter. The first is that the west ignored that stages that China prepared for and now we see that Saudi Arabia has selected for “a more modest military cooperation agreement” with America, as scheduled the door opens for China to get more of towards America assigned spending. As I personally would speculate is that Saudi Arabia is now in a good place to negotiate and as Blinken seemingly trusted on “We can do this, if we can have….” We see that America endangered its position for defence spending. I believe that I am correct, but there are signs that it is based on a opinion piece. Not on reported facts.

What people need to realise is that this all started on October 7th 2023 when Hamas struck the Nova music festival massacre, overall 1,139 people were killed and 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip. That started this mess but the media is extremely willing to avoid certain matters. And now we see a larger setting Saudi Arabia is (as I personally see it) ready to find a new defence partner and spend billions with that new partner. 

So when some will call this a mild rain, consider that thought because those billions would have paid for the loans which could now fall short of payment for the next few years.

As such appeasement becomes deadening. America made a massive booboo as I see it. Have a fun day.

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November 28, 2024 · 21:49

The edge of darker creativity

There is a dark corner. It is not a unique setting, it is in everyone. The problem comes when any person gets their creativity and taps into that darkness. Is everyone on board? You see, I just tapped into this and what I created scared me to near death. When we see the news, we see that there is an armistice in Lebanon. Reuters reported a mere 12 hours ago: “A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah held on Wednesday under a deal brokered by the U.S. and France as people in both countries began returning to homes in the border area shattered by 14 months of fighting.” Sounds lovely doesn’t it? Well, in under an hour all these ‘Lebanese citizens’ came out in droves waving Hezbollah flags. As such I wonder how long this seize fire will hold. Some Hezbollah idiot will think that it is a good idea to send a missile into Israel, to gain fame with others. And Israel will go berserk and strike out. That is what realism tells me. We do not know what will happen. The minds of terrorists tend to go where most are fearful. And there is a second sight. Someone has to appease the will of Iran and someone will.

As such I came up with the Bullet Plus, as you can see it seems like a simple bullet, It is however not intended to shoot someone. In the bullet is a small canister, as the bullet impacts, the canister will break and the fluid will be released. You can have any kind of fluids there. There is Sarin, Novichok (Ask the Russian GRU for details on that one), there are also diseases like pulmonary diseases. Not directly fatal (like Novichok) but now we get an area issue. You see, pulmonary poisons will affect people in an area and hospitals will pick up on these. The result of a stray bullet. Consider shooting Sarin into an Hamas building, suddenly we start getting a range of intel we never had before (Mossad didn’t have it either). Sarin is too deadly, Novichok is an option and others are options too. You see, we might know 1-2 Hamas agents, but the 5-9 support staff remain unknown. Now they come out of the woodworks. We could use something like Caesium chloride, it is highly toxic and it cannot spread from person to person. Direct interaction is needed. For this you need to look at the Goiânia accident in Brazil (1987). You see, all these terrorists and their sympathisers might scream ‘innocent, innocent’ but at some point even Saudi Arabia will need to deal with them. They need to simply because Iran will make them act in some way against Saudi Arabia. It is not a case of ‘if’ it is merely a when. And for those thinking this is an Israel issue, consider the border wall of Gaza with Egypt.

The H3 terrorists will need to be dealt with at some point. Hamas is a certainty, Hezbollah is becoming more and more needed and when these fall away Houthi actions are most likely to become zero.

Feel free to disagree with me but in all this consider that this started on 7 October 2023 with Hamas attacking a pop concert. And in all that time how many refugees were ‘allowed’ into Egypt? I will let you count the articles that have been published on this it will be less then usual. It is so much easier for the media to go anti semitic on us all. Emotional flames score more digital dollars then simple truths. That is the truth of the media. Anyhow, I decided to let the dark corner of my creativity speak and I came up with this. Perhaps DARPA had this already, perhaps they did not. I already scored 5 wins over DARPA, so my ego is just fine. If my HOPplusOne solution works I have 6 wins over DARPA. There is only so much my ego needs, for the rest I merely think of other solutions. In this, I still love the idea that I designed a solution to meltdown nuclear reactors based on a snow-globe. You probably never thought that this ‘device’ had instrumental options did you?

Anyway, we all hope that the seize fire holds, but I am not holding my breath. No matter how you slice it, 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. Consider how many Hamas people are ‘suddenly’ awarded a nice place to live and in this and the BBC gave us last week “Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said Hamas’s office no longer had a function because Qatar had suspended its mediation efforts on a Gaza ceasefire deal, although he stressed that it was not permanently closed. The Palestinian official told the BBC the Hamas negotiators had adjusted their presence in the region and were keeping their locations secret to avoid embarrassing host countries.” So why isn’t it permanently closed? I reckon that Qatar is feeling the anger from other islamic nations and Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza has issued a Fatwa against the October 7th attack. That is a bitter pill to swallow for Hamas. As such Hamas needs a different setting and remaining underground (optionally somewhere in Qatar) makes sense, because there are very little hiding places in Gaza left. When you add it all up my solution has a few things going for it. The largest issue is that it is becoming important to see how the claws of Hamas reach out and optionally the same goes for Hezbollah and Houthi. The nice part is that if this plan comes to fruition Iran will have to desert these three players because the impact of undeniable evidence would haunt Iran to the largest extent and the only thing going for these three players is that Iran under Qasem Soleimani was much better arranged then now. Now we see more and more issues out in the open and soon there is no denying what happens and the other players hurt by Iran will strike back at that point. How they strike back? That remains to be seen, but at that point Iran will lose whatever friends it thought it had in the first place. That is merely my point of view. 

Have a great creative day, possibly a lot less dark than the one I am having now.

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November 13, 2024 · 22:13

Trials of a madman

Something made me think of King George III today. He was known as the mad king. For me it wasn’t what I knew, but it was the view thrusted on me by Nigel Hawthorne who played the Madness of King George. He got assistance by Helen Mirren, Ian Holm and Rupert Everett. What mattered is that this view gave me the rest of the setting. You see the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/for-2nd-day-straight-russias-reported-losses-in-ukraine-surge-to-record-levels/) gave me ‘For 2nd day straight, Russia’s reported losses in Ukraine surge to record levels’ now, war is indiscriminate for the living. The living are merely people who haven’t died yet and War in any form relishes death above all other currencies. What got to me was “This surpasses the previous record of 1,770 set just the day before. The total figure stands at 712,610.”

We are also given “In a bid to regain control, Russia has deployed 50,000 troops, including soldiers from North Korea, to the Kursk region.” I tend to ask Ares for advice on these matters and he gives me that it will merely take an additional 17 days for them all to be slaughtered. The Koreans are out of their element and that implies an increasing amount of miscommunication between the Russians and Koreans will increase the rate at which their bodies and souls become separated. This reflects on ‘the Madness of King George’ as King George should have been able to see that America was lost to him, and he gave the order to battle for America. He of course didn’t count on the French who liked England to be weaker. Russia is making a generic same setting using Koreans, mercenaries, Nepali forces (about 200 of them), Serbians as well as some Bosnians. It seems that the fifth largest army is no longer depending on its 1.15 million active-duty personnel and close to two million reservists. They are willing to let the other people swallow the bullets meant for Russian forces. Yet the larger setting is ignored. Are they setting a stage where they hope that the others will swallow bullets until the Ukrainians run out of ammo? Do you remember these arrogant Russian media types claiming it was a mere 2 days exercise? We are in day 994 now and there is no letting up. Even more so, Russia has lost territory to the Ukrainian forces. There is no way that the top of the Kremlin does not see that. Lets be clear, the high command of the Kremlin is as able as most of the NATO countries and they see these numbers too. More important, they also see that Russia is now indebted to North Korea now. If someone would have told them in 2000 that this would happen a mere 24 years later, they would have howled with laughter (and rightfully so). We now see that Russian logistics are a mess, Russian hardware is failing all over the place in their own biosphere. These machines are not able to withstand the Russian conditions, a first setting that would have been required. As such, what mess is Russia in? Oh, and before you think this is the larger part, you would be wrong. The larger part are the 18750 lost drones. The cheapest military drone is about $700K, making this an effort to tap the vein at $13,000,000,000. One element is costing them 13 billion and counting. The second is 20350 pieces of artillery, wanna guess how cheap they are? And replacing them is a costly and time consuming issue. The Russian army is about to be a mere shadow of an empty egg shell. That setting was 850 days in the making and the Kremlin let it all happen. There is no loyalty towards Putin, as I see it these generals are letting this happen to the Russian population. Why? This is not some ego setting. I have never seen an ego letting this happen to 712610 fellow citizens. I get it, if you are under attack this could happen, but Russia instigated this attack and there lies the crunch. In other news Lord Hades is welcoming over 725000 souls into his domain. As I see it he is happy and Ares is merely mesmerised by the utter stupidity of people. 

We are also given “Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that as”tens of thousands of enemy soldiers from the best Russian shock units” are aiming to push Ukrainian forces out of the Russian enclave, raising concerns of a significant escalation in the war.” It is a thought that makes sense, but the other side is equally possible. If President elect Trump lets this sail, it would take the better part of two decades for the Russian forces to be anywhere near to a threat to NATO and other parties that rely on President elect Trump. In this I oppose the view by Aljazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/6/australia-spy-chief-says-west-faces-new-russia-china-iran-n-korea-axis) where we are given ‘Australia spy chief says West faces new Russia, China, Iran, N Korea ‘axis’’, I get that we are given “Andrew Shearer, said on Wednesday that the strategic impact of the emerging axis, with China and Russia at its core, had been underestimated.” As I see it, the Ukrainian offensive with Russia, North Korean and Iran is a bit of a sizzler. As Iranian drones are dealt with the weaknesses are exposed making it easier for Israel and NATO allies to create counter measures. China will keep its distance as it would be tactically sound. Iran as it loses its proxies through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi become close to powerless. At this foundation China prefers to stand alone, with NATO allies contributing to this violent settlement, China gets a real chance to look at what their optional opponent is capable of. And with China leading an economic windfall in several places, it can afford to wait. Whatever Russia and China deal we are given, until I have investigated the source of the intelligence, I merely see that an old premise becomes optional. It comes from James Grady who also wrote six days of the Condor. This story showed us the setting of a China stage (in Montana if I remember correctly). They spoke about something called ‘Gamaljoen’, it I remember this correctly (from Dutch). A person who through attachments was ‘made’ important and that person created importance by making the connections more important than they were. The person was not that important in the end, but the intelligence network wasted resources and time to learn this. It is entirely possible that China is now employing this setting and others like Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu are voicing this setting. In the meantime (as I personally see it) China seems more clever that this and they are unwilling to claim any stake in this lose-lose battle that it represents. This is rather nasty news for Sergei Shoigu, but there it is.

Are these truly the trials of a madman? In this I accept that I could be the madman, but see at what has happened in the last 925 days, am I that wrong? 

Oh and if the Koreans are up to it, cook a decent mean for the Russians. If the South Korean kitchen is anything to go by, they could use a proper meal. In the realm of Hades those without honour feast on the bones of whomever they slay. You can ask Ares, he can usually be found in the northern part of the Ancient Agora of Athens. Hades can be found in the palace of Tartarus, getting there is however quite the challenge. The Myrmidon tend to make short work of trespassers.

So there is my happy moment of the day, you have a nice day too.

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November 11, 2024 · 18:19

The unspoken truth

That is a setting we relish and fear. There is no escaping it. When some people relish the setting of total freedom, they also fear how some people might abuse that same level of freedom. We applaud the freedom of speech, but we also fear the people that abuse it, like ‘Just Stop Oil’ for example. There was an advertisement the other day. The setting was an art exhibit and two “oilers” step up to defile a work of art. Then we see a middle aged man walk up to them and shoot them in the head, a simple execution. And for a lot of them (including me) there was a sense of calm, a satisfying feeling. These abusers of ‘freedom’ were dealt with. The future innocent art was saved. The art defilers were dealt with. That is the consequence of ‘freedom of speech’, you need to be held accountable. It refers to the very beginning of my blog. On June 19th 2012 I wrote ‘The accountability act – 2015’ in this I wrote “Why 2015? Well an act like this does not grow out of a goose feather and ink jar over night. If we think of a law that could make a real change, and would be a real stop to some of the acts of greed, then it will take time and a lot of effort too.” I gave the powers that could be 3 years to get their act together. As far as I know they never did. And this reverts to a new case, an act that happened that happened on 7 October 2023. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4vw1l8xvdo) gave us ‘Gaza’s top Islamic scholar issues fatwa criticising 7 October attack’ where we see “Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza, is one of the region’s most respected religious authorities, so his legal opinion carries significant weight among Gaza’s two million population, which is predominantly Sunni Muslim.” 

The world no matter how it is tweaked by the greed driven need for digital dollars, has had enough of the media at large. There is a (seemingly) staged setting that the world of Sunni Islam is seeing the fallout the world is having. It is happening in nearly all countries in the world. Shia Islam has embraced Terrorism in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthi) and the world is basically fed up with this path. Now we see the BBC story and there is a chance that Sunni Islam is isolating Shia Islam and this stage could be used to isolate and invalidate Iran. So as we are given “A fatwa is a non-binding Islamic legal ruling from a respected religious scholar usually based on the Quran or the Sunnah – the sayings and practices of the Prophet Muhammad. Dr Dayah’s fatwa, which was published in a detailed six-page document, criticises Hamas for what he calls “violating Islamic principles governing jihad”.” There is a chance that the Gazan population have had enough of Hamas to the larger degree and this paper might push them to the curve of decisions. Lets see the impact On October 10th we were given “An estimated 75,000 tonnes of explosives have been dropped on Gaza with experts predicting it could take years to clear the debris amounting to more than 42 million tonnes, which is also rife with unexploded bombs. Gaza’s Media Office estimates direct damage caused by Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip at $33bn.” Now as I personally see it, the Gaza Media Office is not impartial and their data is debatable. But we also get from Unitar on September 30th we were given “Those 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 35,591 possibly damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.” I feel that this needs to be scrutinised to a much larger degree. The media uses it for digital dollars, they are willing to obfuscate the data as much as they can, but clarity could resolve a lot of issues and Dr Dayah’s fatwa could be a first step to do just that. For the people in Gaza it is imperative that they get clarity. Hamas will not give that. How many people were living in these 163,788 buildings? And this Fatwa was the one thing Iran did not count on. The Iranians are in a bind. They opened the door for Israel to attack them directly, attack their oil reserves. The oil reserves enable the terrorist acts of Iran and when these are gone Iran is in a stale mate with no option but to handover all they thought they gained. The first being the isolation of three terrorist organisation. It will isolate Iran to the largest of degrees and with that gone so do their ‘allies’ China, India and Russia. Russia might hold on as they have other needs, but without oil India and China are pretty much out. It is my personal view on the matter, however this could start a new wave. One that invalidates Iran and give the stability and powers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to create a new foundation of stability. And lets be clear (and optionally honest) do you really want Iran, the country that embraced terrorism for decades to the largest degree at that table?

This is the setting we are pushed into and lets all hope that it works out for the best. Have a great Monday.

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November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 28, 2024 · 07:43

The setting of coins

The BBC had an interesting article yesterday. I was drawn between two settings. There is nothing wrong with the article. It is a point of view and anyone has that right. My setting was that the dimensionality is wrong. Some see Iran as a wimpy weasel, others as a weaselly wimp. I think they are both at the same time. That is as far as the difference is seen. The BBC in the shape of Jeremy Bowen hands us ‘Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak’ (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo). I don’t think they look weak, they are weak. When you have to rely on terrorists to bring your message across, you are weak. And the setting that this brings is that a stabilising effect that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brought was torpedoed (for a lack of a better word) by Iran. Iran is so afraid to be the trivialising party in the middle east that they rely on three terrorist entities. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi forces. 

We are given “They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens” And the options of a bad series of choices is ‘encouraged’ by the west. Politico brought me this month the setting of loopholes that were created to enable other players to sell Russian oil, all legal (which is why we call it a loophole), yet this wasn’t created for Russia. Russia got to exploit the loophole the west made for Iran (my presumptuous thinking). Do you really think that Iran could have played the game this long if they didn’t have that loophole?

We are then given “Iran’s official media in the hours before and after Israel’s attacks carried defiant statements that, at face value, suggest the decision to respond had already been taken. Its language resembles Israel’s, citing its right to defend itself against attack. But the stakes are so high that Iran might decide to walk its threats back” which sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this weasel was hiding behind three terrorist organisation. Hamas has now been bombed back into the stone age and their leaders are hiding in Doha, Qatar (according to some sources). As far as I see it, Gaza did this to themselves. Hezbollah decided to rely on pagers and the top of Hezbollah basically messaged themselves to death. That is number two down. The assault was so complete that pretty much the entire top of Hezbollah blew themselves up. Who ever didn’t do this will follow soon I reckon. Then there is just the Houthi brach left. I reckon that the next 3-5 years amounts to Iran calling that branch with requests for the good of Shia Islam. Not sure how they will bring that news, but it is likely to take on that form. All the money that Iran invested would now be asked to validate through actions. Hamas has seemingly lost around 50% of its fighting force and the rest is dubious of continuing and finding real solutions for their family. Hezbollah has no top, this means that Iran needs to put advisors on the ground, or lose whatever they had left. And the Houthi’s will go in a new direction. As I personally see it, with the recruitment of child soldiers they are taking on the direction Hamas had and as some drone technology that evolved in the Ukraine, we will see soon a new frontier develop where drones can be sent to a generic location and start auto targeting a scope of realistic issues. There is every consideration that whatever drone abilities the Saudi government has will soon gain serious teeth. 

We are then given “Iran’s foreign ministry invoked its right to self defence “as enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter”. A statement said Iran believed it was both entitled and obligated to respond to foreign acts of aggression”, this sounds nice, but Iran played the terrorist card and has done so for years, which makes its statement baseless. We can see America ‘pleading’ with Israel not to hit the oil reserves and the loophole for oil makes it a desired move, but Israel has its own concerns. These terrorist actions are funded by Iran and defund their oil is a tactical move to temporary stop funding, making the tactic valid. As we see “The men in Tehran thought they had a better idea than all-out war. Instead, Iran used the allies and proxies in its so-called “axis of resistance” to attack Israel. The Houthis in Yemen blocked and destroyed shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon forced at least 60,000 Israelis from their homes.” We are confronted with the harsh reality that Iran is considering extreme options and that is the final straw for Israel. They could bring to bare 125 missiles on Iranian oil fields and with that Iran will have no more options. A setting that was accelerated since 1979 comes to a stop when the oil becomes to tainted to be sold, it will be the oil that glows in the dark. And the world is fearing that moment. Too many stakeholders with their slice of pie that came from the oil loophole will end and there will be a lot of voices trying to delay this point. On the upside it would enable Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to set some solid work to make these two the solidifying hub of international cooperation on the Arabian peninsula. 

The largest question for the world will be what will Iran decide and they could find a way to make hay out of that. Because any escalation will lead to the end of Iran, a path that started 6000 years ago. It is anyones guess if the Iran of today realises that they are out of survivable options. I see three paths and two remain silent because it amounts (without evidence) to fear mongering. And I am not inclined to openly support that view. The play nice card sounds nice, but it would require Iran to disband sections of the IRGC as well as stop supporting terrorism. Will Iran see that light? When people have been on that violent streak for decades, it is hard to stop. I get that, but does Iran have any resolution left? Empty threats will not bring home the veal as they say.

Well, it’s Monday now, so have a great new day. 

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October 16, 2024 · 22:46

The Squeezing hand

The Arab News had an interesting piece two days ago. It starts with ‘Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah’ and it can be found (at https://arab.news/9bh3s). The story comes from Dr. Majid Rafizadeh and he talks an interesting talk (you know how these Harvard types tend to be). We get to see “The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.” Where we are also given “Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy.” We can from this gain the insight that the actions from Israel has met its goals. This is meant plural as we see in the first that they eradicated the top of Hezbollah and as such a whole new cadre of Hezbollah need to be interned and trained to keep the money streams going, as well as the hardware they require. And here lies the second tier of a new challenge. Iran will need a whole range of ‘military advisors’ in that region and that gives its own sides of problems (as I personally see it). The second tier becomes that the initial ‘brotherly’ setting towards Hamas is backfiring. So either Hamas commits to Hezbollah as well, or they become a lot more isolated. Yet the stage that is given through “There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence” As Israel pounds Lebanon the options for Hezbollah decrease, by a fair bit. An expression that comes to mind is “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze”, this is not merely the act of squeezing, but it reflects on the fruit as well. If you have a fruit half the size the squeeze is no longer worth it and that is the part that Iran faces in this year and the next. As Hezbollah is dramatically downsized by Israel, Iran loses more and more regional influence and if Israel hits oil targets the stage will soon collapse. Yes, I saw all kinds of news that Israel stated that they will limit the attack to military targets and here is the little loophole. Oil is a valid military target as Iranian oil (a slight speculation) fuels all kinds of terrorist needs. 

And then we see the immense failure of America (CIA), we are given “Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests” For over a decade a clear strategy against Hezbollah was required, but the CIA and other intelligence machines fell short. So are they really out there aiding Israel, or are they aiding the setting of prolonged instability? I made this accusation a few years ago and I am seemingly proven correct again and again. 

The article ends with “the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies” I can see this side and whilst I do not agree on this stance coming, I can clearly see that it will a likely output. To thwart this setting and steer the Arabian peninsula towards a larger shaped stability, Israel would gain a lot by pounding Hezbollah back to the stone age (as expressions go). So in the line of “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” there are two sides deciding this. Make the fruit smaller and weaken the squeezing hand. These two settings will end the ‘reign’ of Iran over Hezbollah and that is what is needed. Iran is playing a dangerous game going all the way back to June 2023. The attack of 7 October 2023 took time, there were training flights, there were preparations and Iran was the assisting hand since before day one. That is the side that the media ignores, that is the side that was in the open and the allies (say friends) of Israel never saw this coming? The writer (Dr. Majid Rafizadeh) brings a good case I fully agree with him, yet my (non-informed) side has issues. You see Iran has been doing this for at least 18 years and I think that more people should be in the know on this. I wonder how many people are ‘dissuading’ people due to the crude oil loophole I discussed in ‘Is it merely political?’ on October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) I wonder how many stakeholders get fed of that premise? I do not know, but the need for greed and ‘hand outs’ make this a much bigger issue than you think and that is not good. Because it allows Iran to play the same dangerous game for much too long. Agree or disagree as you see fit, but ask your self the question. ‘How is Iran playing this game for this long and the media isn’t up to speed?’ It is nice to blame the media, but the fact that they didn’t report on many occasions makes their hands tainted as I see it, and they also refrained to expose several stake holders in the process. How does that hit you?

And a mere 50 minutes ago we see the the Washington Post give us: ’Israel strikes southern Beirut; U.S. demands restraint in Lebanon, aid for Gaza’, I wonder what they didn’t report on, because that part needs to be exposed as well. The added text “Separately, the administration gave Israel a month to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, warning it could otherwise take punitive steps, including withholding military aid”, the Times of Israel gives us IDF data shows over 26,000 rockets fired at Israel. My small question becomes “What was the cost of that?” If a rocket costs a mere $100,000, than Hamas kept a little over 2.6 billion out of the mouths of Palestinians and that is merely 2023. As such Hezbollah also fired missiles, The group reportedly has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges between 160 and 300 kilometres, What were those costs? As such how could Iran pay for it all? Both Hamas and Hezbollah did not pay top dollar for that, so what was the hand out by Iran? In 1976 we got the phrase “Follow the money”, it comes from the movie ‘All the presidents men’, as I see it Bob Woodward really screwed the media over with that one (me, laughing out loud), oh, and he was involved with the Washington Post for some time. So who trailed the Iranian money?

Have a great day.

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October 12, 2024 · 16:11

The afterthought

It is Reuters that gave us ‘Exclusive: Stop Israel from bombing Iran’s oil sites, Gulf states urge US’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/stop-israel-bombing-irans-oil-sites-gulf-states-urge-us-2024-10-11/) Now normally this doesn’t bother or alert me, but after the 6th when I wrote ‘Is it merely political?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) where we got to see “A loophole allows middlemen in countries like Turkey, China and India to refine Russian oil in petrol and diesel before selling it elsewhere — exempt from sanctions. According to a report first seen by POLITICO, Western countries spent $2 billion on this rebranded fuel in the first half of 2024” Now we see Gulf states all ‘worried’ about Iran, or are they perhaps worried about the cheap deal they have from Iran counting in the billions? A setting that most of us ignored as we were unaware of the loophole. But now, even after Iran threatens Israel, we are given “Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites because they are concerned their own oil facilities could come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters” and in the article we aren’t given any names are we? Which Gulf sources? I think that we are entitled those answers, are we not? Isn’t it interesting that Reuters missed that beat, but then the media is becoming less and less reliable. And it makes sense that the first thing Israel goes after is the money, hence the oil. And in all of this Gulf states are urging the US to stop Israel from bombing oil sites? Who are the stake holders, what Gulf nations are involved and how is that money flowing? More important how can we track that money. How can we expose these exploiters? 

These are all questions that are derived from the article on the 6th of October that Politico gave us. If they rebranded 2 billion of Russian oil, there is nothing to stop us thinking that Iran gave others a lot more and from the gulf states there is plenty of players around to do whatever it takes to get a share of a mere 50 million and this has been going on for a while (a speculative thought). The Russia story came out relatively fast, but the Iran dilemma has been going on for decades and now with the Hezbollah eradication as well as the pounding of Hamas, these stake holders are worried that their well dries up and now they are speculatively crying like little bitches that their free ride is drying up. OK, that might have been a little over the top but the sentiment comes across, does it not? Now, I could be wrong, one sides does not prove the other. To put it simplistically every cube is a orthotope, not every orthotope is a cube. As such what is happening in Russia might not happen in Iran. On the other hand, what was set in motion to be applied to Iran was pretty much a setting for Russia as well. And the media isn’t asking questions, why not?

Until recently when Politico showed us the loophole no one asked questions and now they should have asked a few questions, yet they still are not. How weird is that?

Apply that to the fact that we are merely give “three Gulf sources told Reuters” and no one wakes up? Why is that?Journalists are not that dim, as such, I suspect that at least one stakeholders has a larger finger in the journalism pie of Reuters. Just a thought to consider.

Have a great weekend.

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September 29, 2024 · 22:23

The first stage in a setting

This is the first of two, the second is of a much lighter sense, as such I am leaving this for desert. The first one (this one) is heavy and will offend a whole lot of people. I have stated this opinion before, but that stage got back in my mind after I saw this article (at https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-crown-prince-personally-doesnt-care-palestine-issue) where we are given ‘Saudi crown prince said he personally ‘doesn’t care’ about Palestinian issue’, it sounds nice. We are then given “Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue”, according to a report in The Atlantic.” I do Care and as the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia (Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud) tells us “Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday announced the launch of a new initiative to establish a Palestinian state and garner support for the implementation of a two-state solution after decades of international efforts failed, leading the region to the brink of an all-out war”, which several sources told us including Al-Arabiya (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2024/09/27/saudi-arabia-announces-new-global-coalition-to-establish-palestinian-state).

My view is that I have nothing against the establishment of Palestine, but it does urgently require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is a hate only party and sooner or later they will abide by the ‘requests’ of Iran and hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran wants to be at the head of the table, or they will ensure that no one will sit there and destabilisation continues. That time has passed and Iran still depends on Houthi and Hamas to bring their point across in the most violent way possible. Now that Hezbollah has been carved into pieces by Israel, Houthi terrorists will think twice on continuing on a path where they ‘assist’ Iran in any way possible. And sooner or later (probably sooner) Iran will find a way for Palestinians or Yemeni’s to find a low paying jobs just to throw wherever they are (in the KSA or UAE) to foul things up. In simple ways that will demand long term repairs or even reconstructing parts that were already done and soon (either Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates) will through ‘anonymous’ sources to get a larger seat for Iran at the table. This is not speculation, it is presumption based on the actions of Iran over the last 20 years. And as such The eradication of Hamas is a given need. When they fall away Iran has merely Yemen to fall back onto and that stops Iran (for now) in its tracks. As Yemen (read Houthi terrorists) sees what damage Israel did to Hezbollah and Hamas next, they will choose a non-violent path, especially when Iran stops taking their calls. 

I believe that there are options especially as Iran loses the two terrorist allies they have. I don’t think it will be the end of it, but I believe that stability in the middle east is essential to a better world and too many power players think that destabilisation is key to their wealth. That needs to stop. I know that it is merely my view and many will state that I am wrong, but as I see it, there are too many people having blind faith in Iran turning a page to a better future, all whilst this path has been walked by administrations for 3 decades. It is time to call it quits. We need solutions there and they need to be made by the right people. Oh, and for those that think that this isn’t essential. Remember that Hamas on 7 October 2023 initiated a sudden attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As part of the attack, 364 individuals, mostly civilians, were killed and many more wounded at the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, an open-air music festival during the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret near kibbutz Re’im and they took 40 people hostage. As far as we know from those 40 hostages, 14 of the hostages are still being held captive. That has been the focal point for Israel. And the setting that we see with the ‘proclaimed’ 40,000 deaths and it was clear months ago that Israel stated ‘Let our people go’ that is what Hamas pushed for and now that Hezbollah has lost pretty much the complete top of their structure (pager by pager) Iran is worried and so should Hamas be. I get that Saudi Arabia wants to stand by Muslims and that is something a lot of people understand, but it does require the eradication of Hamas. Hamas did this to themselves on October 7th 2023. Saudi Arabia (as well as the UAE) need to focus on stability for the middle east and in this case I count Egypt as a middle eastern player. Egypt will be important to Saudi Arabia down the line with 5G advancements as well as the fact that 111 million Egyptians are a great goal for the Saudi Broadcasting Authority, they could largely increase their visibility, moreover, it would allow Egypt to broadcast to Muslims in Spain, France, Italy and Greece. And from there, optionally to more nations in Europe. But that is merely my insight lacking view on the matter. OK, it has a personal view. As more islamic people get connected to streaming TV and streaming solutions, my script ‘How to assassinate a politician’ might actually be released at some point (my ego tends to seek solutions too).

It is almost Monday now. So have a great day and you will hopefully enjoy this Sunday.

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