Tag Archives: Iran

August 18, 2024 · 14:32

Cold War 2.00.05/LW

The BBC alerted us to an optional issue, the article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn8vk4g42o) is a tap on the door. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the article. It alerts us and it tells us stuff, but there is an underlying setting. You see there is an absolute chance that Russia is active in Germany, but there are doubts within me. Russia has a lot more problems than many of us realise. And there we, optionally, now have a new player in the German field. The radical sited lone wolf getting their message from Tehran. I will come right out with ‘it is speculative’, it is my speculation. You see with “Holes mysteriously found cut in army base fences” we see part of the deception. If it was me, I would hide 2-3 drones, out of sight with a good view of several buildings, not flying in a landed state. Army camps have many roofs and not of them are watched all the time. And a landed drone leaves no signature. So there the culprit, optional plural have drilled a hole in a fence, nicely hidden, but not strong enough that it will avoid detection. So the guard patrols call it in and suddenly the base is rushing to the sensitive places and checking them out. And now with the drone cameras they will know WHERE to hit that place, optionally not hitting that place at all (that week). The army signature move is to check all the sensitive areas as well as the munition storage and armouries. Their alert giving the lone wolves where to come soon enough and that time there are no holes at entry. 

Not a case they expected, but this is not an intentional Cold War or Cold War 2.0, it is a Cold War 2/LW (Lone Wolf). A new setting and most standard procedures will not suffice, well they might but you are up against a different enemy, the Lone Wolf is desperate for success and more important, he/she will be more desperate for success, as such they will resort to killing a lot sooner, as such the plan changes somewhat. Whether they are out for secrets to dispense to a player like Iran (optionally one of their agents via Hamas, Hezbollah, or Houthi). I see this as a realistic setting. 

We cannot merely rely on:

  • An alleged plot to assassinate Germany’s top weapons manufacturer.
  • Phone taps on a high-level Luftwaffe call.

These are still settings that are happening and it is even possible that these are separate issues. In any espionage setting the Luftwaffe taps could most definitely be Russia as for the alleged assassination. It is anyones guess who it is and how real it is. The danger of an assassination cannot be ignored, but these people are aware of those dangers and the replacement is likely to be a lot more dangerous than the one they replaced. When the danger becomes realistic, the claws come out and they will suddenly be a lot more dangerous, as well as the BND (Bundesnachrichtendienst), they will at that point be out for blood, all of the blood they can lay their hands on. 

So am I right?
Not sure, but I just gave you a scenario that I came up with in 5 minutes. These Lone Wolves have been brooding over a plan for months. It is there that we see the folly that I saw in the case involving Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri in Canada. In 2021 we get from 60 minutes that Mohammed bin Salman wanted him dead. This might be true, but then we get in August 2020 that ‘Saudi hit squad was sent to Toronto to try to kill former intel official, lawsuit alleges’ (source: Toronto Star) with a 100 page lawsuit and in the end none of the allegations have been proven in court. What a jolly shit show. There was another article (I forgot where it was) stating that the Tiger Team of 30 man were employed. To give you a little rundown, after 42 years leaving the army (draft) I came up with a simple idea of using 3 teams of 2 man and at the end of that exercise that would have taken a mere 20 minutes with one team active for an additional 12 hours, there was no living Al Jabri, he would be as dead as the concrete building he was living in. OK, I do not know the setup of that building, but it would be a simple exercise for 3 teams of 2 (one team observing and directing. An optional use for the M202A1 66mm FLASH with adjusted missiles would be used (in a certain debilitating case) but that is merely on a ‘what if’ whim. The rest is a simple exercise using two boom boom items. Hard case, a mere exercise and I am certain that certain parties (who are in this field) could have thought of this long before I did. I have had my issues with the assumptions that Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri have tried to sway us with. The other fact was that the US, where a lot was set in their courts (even though he was in Canada) with all kinds of objections against the Saudi representative there. I had my doubts on a lot of it. This is a mere setting and this now goes back to Germany. Is there an optional Cold War brewing? That is very much possible, but in all this the Lone Wolf is optionally overlooked. So are these the actions of a Lone Wolf, or a Lone Woof. Anyone can make a hole in a fence, having the Army run around would be fun the the lone woof looking from a distance, it does not make for a base invasion. So at the near end of the article we get “Not all of these events can definitively be blamed on Moscow, but Germany is on heightened alert for possible acts of Russian sabotage, because of Berlin’s continued military support for Kyiv” this is a better be safe then sorry and I cannot disagree, but the media had a decent responsibility to state more than this and the mere ‘Not all of these events can definitively be blamed on Moscow’ was not enough. With Russian sympathisers all over Europe a lot more was required, because belief it or not Lone Wolves are a clear and present danger to many European nations. Troll farms are ‘their’ essential misinformation, but merely misinforming people and watch it unfold tends to be only entertaining in the first few hours. When we get to tipping scales, actions tend to be needed to make the scales tip over a lot more, but that is merely my point of view.

As “last month when CNN reported that US officials had told Berlin of an alleged Russian plot to kill the chief executive of Germany’s biggest arms company Rheinmetall” doubts come into play again. You see a player like Rheinmetall has procedures in place for this level of events, of that I have no doubt. So what is to be gained from a simple and single execution? Is it the target, or is it a ploy to keep the BND active in the wrong places? Lets not forget that Sun Tzu taught us that all war is based on deception. So how did CNN get the news? Any alleged plot (especially from Russia) would be based on the expertise by people like the GRU and they do not talk (if they do President Putin has a lot more problems that he realises). So how did CNN get it, what were the sources? As such I have to some degree my doubts on this.

Have a fun day and that red dot you see on your chest? It’s merely your imagination.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 14, 2024 · 07:21

The Iranian ploy

I saw the article (at https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-threaten-riyadh-aerial-footage-key-airports) stating ‘Yemen’s Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with aerial footage of key airports’, the New Arab with the text “The video, titled “Just try it”, contained images of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, King Fahd International Airport in Damman as well as the ports in Ras Tanura, Jizan and Jeddah” is a possible ploy. I do not doubt that the Houthi’s (with generous support from Iran) is adding a ploy of threats to their limited tactics. It is clear that Houthi forces can bring something to the table, but I believe that this is nothing more than a ploy. A ploy that could have teeth, but I do not have the required contacts or information to see how serious this is. We see an additional setting with “The threat to Saudi Arabia by the Houthis comes amid reports that the government and Houthis failed to strike a fresh prisoner exchange deal”, which is fun because this was a deal between Houthis and the legitimate Yemen government. So this is all about posturing, or is it?

You see, a few hours later I was given through Arab News (at https://arab.news/6p5tn) ‘Iran’s new president vows balance with all countries, warns US his country won’t be pressured’ where Iran apparently made the claim “He looks forward to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries”, so there is the carrot. Iran needs Saudi Arabia in a holding pattern, whilst Iran ‘appeases’ European nations. So as I see it Houthi forces are still the barking dogs of Iran and Iran needs this, because their support of Hamas will have secondary contemplations by any nation thinking that talking with Iran is a good idea. It has not now or yesterday worked and it will not work tomorrow either. 

As Iran is hiding their hands behind terrorist organisations like Hamas or Houthi forces, we need to be weary that stability in the Middle East requires both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, they have the growing economies, the larger setting for tourism and the options of uniting Arab nations. The problem is that Iran is a problem. They are crying like little girls as they are denied a larger seat at the Arab table. The only small friend that Iran can rely on is Qatar and they have growing issues with Hamas. How that plays out is beyond me but in this setting we have Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Iraq. They are all playing nice and as I see it, there is not to much love for Iran in this. Qatar is the one successful nation that has been playing a dangerous game, so what happens with them is up in the air. I reckon that the Houthi’s are set to the threat to Saudi Arabia. In this my feelings are that if one attack on a civilian target is done, the might of the Saudi forces will bluntly retaliate against Houthi forces. This has the one complication that Iran has to either commit or desert Houthi forces. This is the ploy as I see it. Iran cries loudly towards Europeans that they are so willing to discuss peace, but they are under the hammer. It will be something like that. So the Iranian ploy is unlikely to work. Europe has enough problems with Russia and Russia could be of little use to Iran. Russia has only one carrier left and they need it in their Ukrainian tactics. But this is about Iran. They are losing ‘useful’ friends a lot faster than they are happy with. It is in that setting that the Houthi threat is (as I personally see it) an Iranian tactic. 

They have to play nice with some people because they are about to learn the lesson Hector Malot taught us with ‘Sans Famille’ and Iran is rightfully worried. You see when the coins come down Iran will have to put up or shut up and they will lose a lot of face in the entire Middle East, sitting at a table where the stabilising points come from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. That is why (my personal point of view) Iran need Houthi, Hamas and any other player that Iran can place in the field with deniability. It is why I said that whatever Palestine comes through, it will require the eradication of Hamas. Because it will be them who will terrorise the building projects in Saudi Arabia. 

So how can I prove any of this? Well the history of Iran is one. Their actions towards Houthi forces is another and the Iranian actions are right after the threats from Houthi forces. I feel that one ploy is enabling other actions. 

But for the most in this, I am merely speculating. So enjoy this Sunday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

June 17, 2024 · 00:25

The depth of ignorance

This reflects on me in this case. We are often driven to points and I am no different. In this case it is a piece by Iranian media. The article (at https://www.iranintl.com/en/202406151148) gives us ‘Iranian Official Criticizes Saudi Actions During Hajj’. Now we can state that Saudi Arabia is the bad boy, but there is another side. I reckon that Iranian media falsely reported on Saudi actions and giving benefits to Houthi acts. There have been a few issues in the last few years. Did you think that the media would not be acted on? The article gives us “He highlighted the recent expulsion of six individuals, identified by Iranian officials as members of an Iranian government media group, suggesting that these expulsions occurred under questionable circumstances” yet the article does not elaborate of WHAT was done, it also does not give information on these 6 media figures. You see we are given “More than 1.83 million Muslims performed Hajj in 2024, Saudi Hajj and Umrah Minister Tawfiq bin Fawzan al-Rabiah said in a briefing”, as such 6 individuals represent 0.000003278688525 of the whole. If we slice the data we get 90,000 Iranian people making it a larger number (which was 0.000066666666667). So the media gives interest to less than a mere sixth hundredth part of a per mille. It makes it all massively less than irrelevant. 

Iran is not informing us, merely gives rise to Abdolfattah Navvab and for the most we wonder what the other 89,994 Iranians have been up to. I doubt that we will get the real rundown and Saudi Arabia might not have the numbers. It is managing the feeding and services for nearly 2 million pilgrims. In a country with 34 million people that is some achievement. Mecca has about 1.5 million people, so that city will have more pilgrims that residents there. Take all that in account and we cannot consider any act in Mecca other than close to miraculous. Six people have no bearing on the actions of Saudi Arabia as I personally see it. 

This is where the depth of ignorance becomes apparent. I am not a muslim, I have little to no knowledge on that matter. But I have been looking into the acts against Saudi Arabia by Houthi forces. The attacks on Saudi soil have been clear and in this matter we can assume that misrepresentation by Iranian media might have been a factor. This is speculation, but the article does now give us anything to go on. We are merely gives “arrest of some Iranian pilgrims”, a mere ‘some’ the action of 6 people are not detailed upon. Weird, is it not? 

The other side is that we are given “He reiterated a call for Iranian pilgrims to distance themselves from “the criminal Zionist enemy and its supporters,”” so how exactly does Israel fit here? They aren’t welcome in Mecca (and as far as I know neither are christians). So is this a jab at Saudi Arabia is to be seen as a zionist supporter? They have spoken out against Israel often enough. They even arranged for Palestine families to visit the Hajj on the Saudi dime. So as per usual we are not given the whole story. In that light we need to ask questions and the setting that this is not happening at present, I can only hope that Saudi media will give the world what the Iranian media has been up to.

Yes, there is a depth of ignorance, but Iran did this to themselves. The safe path is to see Iran as the guilty party, no matter how this plays out. And yes, in this my ignorance might show me to be wrong. So boo hoo hoo to those crying foul at what I wrote. 

Enjoy your weekend, My Monday just started half an hour ago.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics, Religion

Tagged as , , , , , ,

January 23, 2024 · 22:17

Spy Games

The first thought I had. An excellent movie with Brad Pitt and Robert Redford, yet what would you think when I told you it is now the BBC who engages this scenario? In comes the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67945137) giving us ‘UAE has funded political assassinations in Yemen, BBC finds’. Finds? Found how? Is my initial feeling. I am not stating that the UAE is innocent, I cannot prove that, but can the BBC prove it? So here we get “Counter-terrorism training provided by American mercenaries to Emirati officers in Yemen has been used to train locals who can work under a lower profile – sparking a major uptick in political assassinations, a whistleblower told BBC Arabic Investigations.” So what mercenaries? Not stating that this wasn’t happening, but the question becomes who and to what degree. You see, the presumption linked to “sparking a major uptick in political assassinations” is nothing more than speculation and who is that whistleblower? This first stage has two speculations absent of evidence and all this is linked to American mercenaries? Not the best or most credible source. Wouldn’t you agree? The best we get is that mercenaries possibly trained Emirati officers in counter intelligence. That is quite the leap towards assassination. As I personally see, the better hit is done by the three drivers. Separation, Isolation and Assassination. Yet we can all agree that this isn’t always possible, yet Yemen has a better stage. Get a Houthi rifle (sniper rifle with silencer is best), pay a few kids to be ready to paint ‘traitor’ slogans on the targets house and in the early evening blow his head of and at that very precise moment get those kids to paint the slogans with the reward of cash and each a bag full of food for the family. Not much required for that, was it? 

Then we are given “The BBC has also found that despite the American mercenaries’ stated aim to eliminate the jihadist groups al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) in southern Yemen, in fact the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members for a security force it has created on the ground in Yemen to fight the Houthi rebel movement and other armed factions” in this, where is the evidence that “the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members”, what evidence is there? The press has very little credibility left. As I personally see it, at best, the UAE has a list of Houthi terrorists and spread a list around with ‘There people are wanted dead or alive’, the fact that alleged members of Al-Qaeda see that as a way to make money is beside the point. You see, what evidence is there to state that former members of any organisation are now part of a UAE security force? You see the issue is evidence and we aren’t seeing any. 

This goes on with “The killing spree in Yemen – more than 100 assassinations in a three-year period – is just one element of an ongoing bitter internecine conflict pitting several international powers against each other in the Middle East’s poorest country.” Now consider that the UN gives us “Over 150,000 people have been killed in Yemen, as well as estimates of more than 227,000 dead as a result of an ongoing famine and lack of healthcare facilities due to the war.” This implies that they are dealing with almost 380K kills from various reasons. So where are these 100+ assassinations? Where is the data? Where are the names? We don’t get any and in the first example I gave you, how can you see or prove that there was an assassination and not an execution by who gives a darn? We cannot get the west the acknowledge the Iran backed Houthis attacking Saudi civilian targets with drones and now they have a case of 100+ assassinations? I have some serious doubts here.

Then we see links to two other sources the BBC iPlayer (UK Only) that is not evidence, it is merely a BBC recruiting drive covered in a chocolaty spy story. Then we get more emotions and “Leaked drone footage of the first assassination mission gave me a starting point from which to investigate these mysterious killings. It was dated December 2015 and was traced to members of a private US security company called Spear Operations Group”, so who leaked the drone footage? Has the drone footage been verified as authentic? And suddenly out of the shrubberies comes the Spear Operations Group, so who are they? Apparently a Delaware outfit. And the source gives us a meeting in London 2020. Not dripping in any level of evidence. The other scenario is that a former Navy seal told a BBC person a spy story and he got paid for this. There is no verification on ANY level. There is a photo (anyones guess if that is a real person) with “He refused to talk about anyone who was on the “kill list” provided to Spear by the UAE – other than the target of their first mission: Ansaf Mayo, a Yemeni MP who is the leader of Islah in the southern port city of Aden”, so we will not get any facts, other then the mention that Ansaf Mayo was a target. All the news started spreading these tales 8 hours ago. In a few cases a few hours before the BBC told their story. I have some serious doubts. So who was Ansaf Mayo? The BBC article gives us nothing apart from the fact that he was an MP, so why was he killed? What evidence is there that he was assassinated? What evidence is there that who did that to this person? The list of doubts go up and it all reflects on a simple Spy game story, nowhere near good enough to be the stamped with ‘Approved by John le Carré’. Last we get to ‘investigators from the human rights group Reprieve’ with the text “They investigated 160 killings carried out in Yemen between 2015 and 2018. They said the majority happened from 2016 and only 23 of the 160 people killed had links to terrorism”, so where is their top line data? Consider that that areas had a rather large slice of 380K deaths (this list is a subset of that number) and a group with little to no visibility for the longest of time has any data on 160 people and only 23 had links to terrorism? More questions, especially as too many parties (including the UN) have been silent on Houthi terrorism, they blatantly kept silent to smear the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this has been going on for years. The list goes on and on and this is the latest approach, now against the UAE. So what gives? The west angry that the UAE joined BRICS? They angry that the UAE is giving too much options to China? Your guess is as good as mine. I have no idea. I am merely questioning the validity of what the BBC is claiming here. I have my own version of these events, which I will not state, because it is pure speculation, I have no facts to support my version and I think that I have that in common with the BBC, we did not get to see any real evidence. Consider that if any of these sources were Iranian, or Iranian sympathisers the entire article collapses like a house of cards. 

Consider that as you start this Tuesday and I am about to enter Wednesday. A simple spy game story that isn’t worthy to sit on any shelf next to spy story masters like Le Carre, Ignatius, Herron, Greene or Deighton. It was a simple setting and I am rejecting what the BBC is telling us on the simple stage of missing evidence, missing verification and missing top line data in a stage where over 380,000 people were killed, finding 650 people (including children) that were assumed to be assassinated is extremely easy, the evidence was everything here and the BBC didn’t give us any.

Have fun today and that red dot on your chest? Pure imagination.

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 10, 2024 · 23:32

A 28 month delay

Yes, that is how I see it and it all started by a story in the Naval News (at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/red-sea-crisis-houthis-demonstrate-increased-capability-coalition-demonstrates-increased-presence/) they were not alone, but there I saw a quote that set me in motion. The quote that set it off was “The introduction of a one-way attack USV is of concern”, you see that was an incorrect statement. I made clear reference of this in ‘The Iranian play’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/30/the-iranian-play/) there I wrote “Yemen has no infrastructure for this, Iran is the only player willing to supply Houthi forces and that is the problem” I wrote this 28 months ago and in 28 months the Houthi forces never gained the ability to do so, they never had the option or (at that time) trained staff to do anything we saw. The west and others sat on their asses all whilst the problem evolved and ONLY now, now that the fat cats are losing margins in the red sea, NOW we see action. So how stupid was that to begin with?

Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/10/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-21-drones-and-missiles-fired-by-houthis) gives us “No injuries or damage reported in what the US military said was the 26th attack by the Yemen-based group since November 19” as I personally see it, this is pushed by others, happy to use Houthi forces as cannon fodder, but the west remains ignorant and I personally believe it is an intentional form of ignorance. 

Who did anything to stop these drones from getting there in the first place? I can’t have been the only one seeing this 28 months ago? So who was drowning the proper investigations? Who was stopping the media from asking the right questions? Perhaps it was all for the digital dollar. I doubt it, I personally believe this was another setting towards destabilisation of the middle east. It is a personal view and I might be wrong, but ask yourself. Now we see what was clear that many months ago? Are the red sea margins that important to the west? Are margins all they care about or is all that only possible as the middle east stays destabilised? You tell me, I am honestly clueless on what the answer is. Yet when you consider how long these Houthi forces are receiving support in hardware and training all whilst the west has been unable to stop them? 

Now consider three of the least capable parties in all this CIA, MI-6 and DGSE and no one saw this? I will let you ponder all this as the news comes in. Yet consider The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/10/britain-warns-severe-consequences-houthi-attack-red-sea-repelled) giving us “The Houthis, once seen as a minor localised military force, say the attacks are intended to force Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza” all whilst I gave the lowdown 28 months ago and you tell me, who is doing a number of whom? 

Enjoy the moment when you are merely one day away from Friday.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

January 3, 2024 · 21:40

A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Tourism

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 29, 2023 · 12:15

In other news

There is news we do not get to see, because it is (my  speculation) in the interest of the western media to not show the better side of Saudi Arabia. I wrote about this particular issue before. But yesterday (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2431656/saudi-arabia) I saw ‘Saudi project clears 826 Houthi mines in Yemen in a week’. There we are given “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared since the start of the initiative in 2018”. In addition, the article also gives us “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared, this include 269,250 items of unexploded ordnance, 142,455 anti-tank mines, 7,943 improvised explosive devices, and 6,442 anti-personnel mines” the larger station here isn’t merely the numbers. It becomes “Where do Houthi forces get these 426,090 mines?” You see, they have no infrastructure to create or manufacture these mines. They also lack funds to acquire them. I still see Iran as the great evil here, but in this I admit that this is speculation bordering presumption. The western media steers clear of this, why is that? The second part is that 826 mines a eeek implies 118 mines a day, that is nothing short of miraculous. Especially if you consider what is involved with mine removal operations. As I personally see it Saudi aid agency KS relief and its managing director Ousama Algosaibi, is due some high Saudi award and the west better acknowledge this part of the equation. The western press is already disregarded as a reputable news source and it is not getting better for them any day soon. 

There are several sides of this event that the western media have ignored and they have ignored it for the longest of times. So how much longer until the media is regarded as nothing more than a courtesan for digital dollars? This event matters. Houthi forces, Iranian backed 

Houthi forces no less have made larger parts of Yemen unliveable. Up to 5 million have been forced to flee their homes and to a larger degree due to mines. That gives us 15% of the population. Now, not all are due to mines, but when you consider the numbers you will agree that the media is not merely shunning its tasks, it has become a joke on several sides of the reporting equation. As such wonder why Arab News is covering this event, more important why others are not. To see the removal of 118 mines a day 365 days a year and they have been doing this since 2018. That is the larger setting (that and where Houthis got that amount of funds in the first place). The KS relief teams have been putting their lives on the line for 5 years and someone needs to stop, pause and realise this. We see the United Nations cry like little babies calling the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia evil and they ignore this part of the equation? 

I will let you figure that part out. Enjoy this day today.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , ,

August 25, 2023 · 19:06

And then there were 6 more

I have been expecting this, I have been awaiting it. OK, I have a few different reasons, but the added BRICS members (from January 1st 2024) are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. I don’t think that the people get how much of a issues this is going to be. BRICS members, just like any other membership (like EU, NATO) will give preference to its own members first. On ‘the seventh guest’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/21/the-seventh-guest/) I wrote “I am certain that Russia and China will use this opportunity that opened up, I just do not know how at present.” That was June 2019. There was no war looming in the Ukraine (and BRICS was not on anyones radar). This setting would be coming naturally from China and now we are about to see that play. Now consider that Saudi Arabia imports from United States was a simple US$16.22 Billion during 2021, now also consider that U.S. Exports to Saudi Arabia constitute 14.2% of total U.S. exports of those commodities worldwide. Now consider that these two numbers will diminish by at least 50% and those trades all go to China (optionally Russia too). I reckon that January 2024 will be the start where the debt levels the US currently has can no longer be allowed. Doing so will end its existence sooner and sooner. Should the US default, they will drag the EU and Japan down with them. A sentiment that China will not shed a tear about. Egypt is interesting as it propels the Saudi plans for their global G5 plans a lot further and a lot faster and it puts the EU and US out of the game pretty much overnight. As such there are signs that the latter two are racing to get agreements in play now. Something Saudi STC and Chinese Huawei are eager to block. Now consider a second part. The quoted setting was “the relationship is that the United States of America (USA) provides military protection of the Kingdom in exchange for a reliable oil supply from the Saudis, pricing of oil in USA dollars, and Saudi support for American foreign policy operations across the world” under those steps China is the most likely party to enlarge their options and they stand to get a lot more oil, oil that is likely not to go to the US and EU from January 1st 2024 (or at least a decent part of it). The latter one is a speculation, but it fits the long term play China is employing and in this I could be wrong. The KSA has long term agreements with the USA. The larger concern isn’t merely the KSA. In this new agreement Iran and the UAE join and now there is a new balancing point in the Middle East and the Emirates are part of that. So how much import does the UAE get from the USA and EU? So when they too go from “United Arab Emirates Imports from United States was US$16.88 Billion during 2021”as well as “European Union Exports to United Arab Emirates was US$37.38 Billion during 2022” and now consider that these two will go down by at least 50%, if not a whole lot more. That gives us $99,000,000,000 in lost commerce from these two places alone and that is merely the start. So how will their government credit cards go when they do not have these revenue streams continue? After that consider the damage that lost revenue from Egypt could get up to as well as increased revenue to China and this is not new, that danger existed from 2019, but certain American politicians were to ego driven and now it all comes to a speculated halt in 16 weeks. For China it will turn out to be a very merry Christmas this year. For the EU and USA a lot less so. But they were warned (not by me), these so called wannabe’s making the calls had more than information I had and they played the ostrich game. So how is that playing out for them? If you were hoping for some miracle cure from me you would be wrong. As I see it, it is too late for that. The US and UK should have adjusted their courses at least 3 years ago (7 would have been better). In the end for several players their upcoming BRICS membership is merely  business decision and that is what China and India are hoping for, because it opens their options by a fair bit starting in 2024. 

As I personally see it, the endgame will play itself, I see no moves left for the Commonwealth, the EU or the USA. Setting that should and could have been avoided for close to 5 years were never done and now with an enlarged new player on the global stage we can watch and see Wall Street implode on itself. To see the desperate go nuts on greed missed all because of some ego driven politicians will be stellar on a few levels. You see a secular population is a weird thing, the moment things go really south, they will rely on the faith of others to let them continue. Does that make the profoundly lost sentiment a drive of sarcasm or a natural wave of irony? I am not sure what applies more but as an antithesis they might be feeding each other for some time to come (especially when the media wants to get as much digital dollars as it can). 

I honestly wonder which systems will still be in play by April 1st 2024, what a joke that will be. Enjoy the weekend.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 31, 2023 · 04:41

Escalation time

We see it, we ignore it and we shout issues of disbelieve. I am no different, I have ignored a few elements at times, even as the writing was on the wall (ceiling and floor too). I thought that politicians would wise up. I considered that the people would take the intelligent path, but a lot of them are not. As such I saw a wake up call. The call came from the Kashmir Observer giving us (at https://kashmirobserver.net/2023/07/29/the-burning-of-the-quran-represent-an-act-in-desperation/) ‘The Burning of the Quran Represents an Act in Desperation?’ It comes with a question mark, but I think that the question is a lot closer to the truth setting than anything I have seen so far. We are also given “West’s far right still live in their invincible, racial, never-ending civilisational supremacy.  However, the rise and fall of civilisations represents a universal fact. None of the dominant civilisations lasted forever. What is consistent in the fall of civilisations is arrogance and delusional belief of never-ending dominance, looking down in disdain at other people and values dear to them. The same arrogance that West demonstrated had been the feature of prior dominant civilisation that is Islamic golden age. That also saw barbarians among the other non-Muslim communities till savage barbarians in the form of Mongols descended on them from nowhere decimating Islam’s golden age, and palaces of tyranny, precious literature that had origin in Quran’s teachings.” I can get behind the sentiment, but there is an issue. I wonder if you can spot it. It is the use of ‘civilisation’. As we look at the settings of governments in the west, there is a claim of civilisation, but I feel that that semi tank left the building some time ago. I reckon that the setting was vacated with the departure of President Bill Clinton. He left the office with Wall Street in too much power and any setting that is greed driven will undo civilisation every single time. Civilisation does not compute to the bottom dollar and we have seen the impacts that followed. Now as the US is one step away from being a third world nation we are seeing the impact that christianity bends to the powerful players and in this case it was Wall Street. Ethicality went out the window and any secular power that enforces the bottom dollar gets to call shots and guess what, it opposes civilisation every single time. 

Then in comes Saudi Arabia, they were mostly quiet during the initial Quran burnings, but there would be a response and the Saudi Gazette (at https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/634563) gives us ‘Prince Faisal renews to his Swedish counterpart Saudi Arabia’s rejection for all attempts to offend Qur’an’, where we are given “Prince Faisal noted to Billström Saudi Arabia’s demand on taking immediate procedures to stop these extremist acts that are trying to undermine the holy books, and provoke the feelings of Muslims around the world.” An essential diplomatic step, but I personally fear it was not strong enough. I get that politically speaking as an Islamic nation Saudi Arabia is cautious on how to proceed, it makes sense, but the lack of actions and the strife of secular governments (in this case Nordic nations) make the lack of push an issue. You see, I wrote in several stories over the last few weeks that there is an issue with Freedom of speech versus discrimination, the burning of Islamic holy scriptures makes that a clear case. I am for freedom of speech, but not at the cost of accountability. That is the larger station. People think that freedom of speech is one anchor without any sides, but accountability gives weight to that freedom and that is what people forgot. To be honest at times I forget that too. Now my transgressions seem small and insignificant, but when you think of it, it matters to the value of freedom of speech and Sweden clearly forgot that part of the equation.

And in comes Iran. The funny part is that I tend to shy away from anything Iranian, yet in this case (at https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2023/07/29/2932699/muslim-nations-urged-to-cut-ties-with-countries-allowing-quran-desecration) they might actually have a more important case to bring. It starts with ‘Muslim Nations Urged to Cut Ties with Countries Allowing Quran Desecration’, not only are they correct there is a larger truth here. This is a setting that should have been championed by Saudi Arabia or even the United Arab Emirates, but it is Iran that gives us “Over the past month, the Holy Quran has been subject to acts of sacrilege by extremist elements in separate incidents in Sweden and Denmark, where authorities gave a green light to the desecration.” I do not completely agree, but I can see how Muslims would see it that way and they have every right to be angry. The larger truth was not anti Islam, it was pro ‘Freedom of speech’ and when you see coins on any table, you merely see one side (the clever people see two sides) but both forget for an instance that there was another side to that coin and it is the side we do not see, we realise that it is there, we merely ignore it and accountability would have taken care of it, but our minds crossed out the other side. And now we have a problem and it is a large one. If the Islamic nations rekindle with the Iranian sentiment and not with the cautious approach that the KSA and the UAE hold we end up with quite the problem. 

Another view is seen (at https://www.worldreligionnews.com/religion-news/quran-burnings-prompt-u-n-human-rights-body-to-urge-increased-action-against-religious-hatred/) where we are given ‘Quran Burnings Prompt U.N. Human Rights Body to Urge Increased Action Against Religious Hatred’, this sounds nice, but it is a little too late for this.

More importantly too many newspapers and media shunned this setting and it is Al Jazeera that showed us two weeks ago (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/12/un-bodys-motion-on-quran-burning-how-did-your-country-vote) the part that matters. The people against this increased action on Islamaphobia include the UK, the EU, and the US. They revere their freedom of expression and are refusing to let accountability take a center seat. A stage that they are intent on pushing, a place where there is freedom of religion as long as it is under the direction of christian based elected aficionados. Sounds familiar?

And I think it is about to get a lot worse. Personally I think it is time for the Kingdom Holding Company to take a serious look at my IP as it pushes a lot more than accountability, it unifies muslims and that could open a lot more doors, especially as it pushes western media out of the way. The fact that I had to rely on an Iranian source all whilst the western media is setting a stage that is no longer reliable or accurate is cause for concern. And this is not really the end of it all, a mere 15 minutes ago we were given ‘Denmark to put legal limits on protests involving Quran burnings’ and the setting there is “Denmark’s government on Sunday released a statement saying that it would put legal limitations in order to stop the demonstrations involving the burning of the holy book Quran in certain circumstances, citing security concerns”. Really? How about the EU charter where we are given “Any discrimination based on any ground such as sex, race, colour, ethnic or social origin, genetic features, language, religion or belief, political or any other opinion, membership of a national minority, property, birth, disability, age or sexual orientation shall be prohibited.” The burning of a Quran is a clear act of discrimination, it is time for the EU to own up to that reality and act accordingly. The cornerstone of all this is accountability, I have stated this for 13 years and now that it all comes to pass the setting becomes an accelerator for a lot of things. I saw the power that one point eight billion people have, I saw the impact and how quickly the sands of opportunity will decimate for the EU and US if they do not wisen up and that is about to happen. The three new BRICS members is one, but if they push for a ban of Nordic products is merely the first step, it could mean a lot more bans that the middle east could push for in the near future. So what happens when over 400 million people in the Middle East decide to ban products from the EU? Don’t think it will not happen because Sweden and Denmark are merely the first steps. When Asia (India and China) steps up to replace items that enrages people there will be a sudden drain of revenues all over the EU (US too). 400,000,000 people needing a new alternative for products. So what happens when these places ban all Cadbury and Nestle items and Amul items take their place? What happens when Paneer (Indian cheese) replaces European cheeses. I bet the Dutch, Swedes, French and Italians will not be happy and that is merely two out of hundreds of examples. The Middle East has buying power and what happens when that is pointed in another direction? 

That is the larger setting that we need to be aware of. Do you really think that you can have freedom of expression without accountability? We are about to enter a phase of escalations and it does not bode well for the EU (or US for that matter). Feel free to disagree, but when the clock rings and you see how in August / September revenues are down all across the board the EU finds itself in a stage that is merely less than an inch for another recession, no matter how much it is labelled an economic downturn, because that is always how it starts, but this time around it could last well over a year pushing a massive amount of businesses out of circulation. Then what?

And it is just the start of the week, have fun.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Religion

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 25, 2023 · 15:39

Say What?

Yes, at times we get that. I have had my issues with the media for the longest time, but today was the wrong day to rub me the wrong way. It all started a few hours ago when the BBC decided to make ‘Obamas’ chef Tafari Campbell dies in paddle-boarding accident’ news (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66297450). I have no idea who he was and I mean no disrespect to Tafari Campbell. I think it is cool to get a job for one of the coolest presidents in America’s history, but lets be clear, the man was a cook. The starting text “Tafari Campbell, 45, worked in the White House before staying on with the Obama family after Mr Obama left office in 2016.” Is pretty much it, the rest should not matter to anyone. To give you a rundown of some of the things that the BBC did not tell you

Saudi Arabia (Front Sport Office)
There we see the news (at https://frontofficesports.com/saudi-arabia-reportedly-offers-1-1-billion-for-kylian-mbappe/) that a football player namely Kylian Mbappe got an amazing lucrative option, a one year deal for $1.1 billion dollars. I honestly have no idea why the man is worth that much, but basically, he’ll make in one year enough to retire from life in luxury. Now, I found a few more articles on this event, just not the BBC. I would never pay that much for anyone, even if I had the money, but that is not something I would have to justify anyway. And as news goes, it is new, sports is news to a whole range of people all over the world. And there is more!

Iran (CNN)
Here we get a human interest story. The story (at https://www.cnn.com/style/article/iran-film-festival-canceled-scli-intl/index.html) gives us ‘Iran bans film festival over poster of actress without hijab’, an action that is not entirely unexpected. One could argue that the people of that festival wanted the festival cancelled by default. We get a picture (picture was nice), and the story comes with the added text ““The minister of culture and Islamic guidance has personally issued an order to ban the 13th edition of the ISFA Film Festival, after using a photo of a woman without a hijab on its poster in violation of the law,” ministry spokesperson Mohammad Mehdi Samoui said in a statement, according to IRNA.” It is hard to ‘reflect’ on laws, especially on laws as they are in existence in Islamic nations, but there was a bright light for Iran, the BBC skated around it and gave the limelight to a dead chef.

Unite Arab Emirates (Khaleej Times)
A new stage and a clear news stage. The article (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/lifestyle/health/uae-new-case-of-mers-virus-confirmed-in-al-ain-says-who) gives us ‘UAE: New case of Mers virus confirmed in Al Ain, says WHO’, news if there ever was one. Mers (aka Middle East respiratory syndrome) is rare but serious. It is apparently spread through close contact with camels, camel products, or an infected person. It is one of those illnesses that go from animal to person and the WHO (World Health Organisation) has now confirmed a total of “All 108 identified contacts were monitored for 14 days from the last date of exposure to the patient”, in a population it does not seem much, but it is a serious issue and on a population of 9.5 million it is not much, but the disease is rare, as such the issue becomes foreground and limelight news. Interesting the BBC did not have this either, but the death of a chef, yes they did have that one.

At times I wonder who decides on the pressures of what makes the news, more important, what non-News makes that cut. Three stories that outrank a paddle boarding accident (by a lot). For something like the The Virginian-Pilot it is news. It was a person from Virginia and he did serve in the White House, no one denies that. Other local newspapers might follow suit on that. Why on earth the BBC did, I have no idea. Not in an age where events have the world stage. To underline this, the sports section gives us all kinds of news, but there is no coverage of the world championships in Japan? How does that compute? The top 25 articles over the last 24 hours and Swimming does not make that cut? Who runs that degenerative toko? (toko is slang for shop)
You see, another source gives us “28-strong British team look to make their mark just one year out from the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris”, a team of 28 swimmers and the BBC cannot find the time to give its viewers and readers one story n this? What is wrong with them?

Overall there is a debatable side to more and more news agents, not merely on what the report, but also on things they let pass by. I want you to take a look for yourself and wonder why certain news events never make it to the BBC or several other news agents in the west. 

Enjoy the day! 

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, sport

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,