Category Archives: Military

February 6, 2024 · 00:51

At the start of round two

I have stated more than one that America has a problem, it has a few, yet this was about defence spending and others aren’t spending it on American soil. I have been called crazy, cranky and delusional (no idea where the cranky part came from). Anyway, today I see that Saudi Arabia has a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) with Leonardo defence.

From one source I am getting “The Ministry of Investment (MISA) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) of the Kingdom and Leonardo announced yesterday the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the intention to discuss, develop and evaluate a range of investment and collaboration opportunities in the defence and aerospace sector.” Some will say ‘so what?’ and until recently I would have agreed. I never heard of them, that doesn’t mean anything, but when you consider that the amount (unverified) is rumoured to be around a billion dollars, the case starts to give a different stage. China is taking a massive slice, Germany and the UK are on the pie hunting side and now Italy takes a billion too. This means that the pie that America one had, what is left is a lot smaller and a lot less impressive (for America that is). 

So the pie that was overwhelmingly America (Raytheon, Northrop and a few others) is now set to at least four additional players and even as we do not know the slice of China, there has been a few indicators (unverified) that it amounts to billions. As I personally see it, this is the result of biting the hand that feeds you and I never saw any clear evidence of what happened to that columnist no one cares about. That is the larger station. In addition to this, one source gives us ‘Fifteen Spanish companies compete for a slice of Saudi Arabia’s military pie’. There is no way to see how far they get and the defence market that is going on right now has 700 arms manufacturers trying to get a slice of $71,000,000,000. It is anyones guess how much is left after China gets its slice. All indicators give me that they are succeeding, in least in part, in securing that revenue and that is revenue that is lost to America. I feel certain that players like Raytheon will get a slice, but as far as I can tell it is rumoured to be the smallest slice they have gotten in a decade. 

And a lot of this could have been prevented, but feel free to think that my delusion. 

I wonder what news we will see next week when the trade fair is over. Yet I feel that a few European firms will be happy on what they were able to achieve. The largest setting That I expect at some point is that FN Herstal and/or the Herstal Group will place facilities in Saudi Arabia to see the setting that Saudi Arabia has advocated for close to 3 years to have 50% to be produced nationally. I reckon that FN Herstal/Herstal Group might reconsider that setting and move some of that to Saudi Arabia, not only for the slice of pie, but as part of Brics their dance-book will open up to several players. There is no data showing this to happen, it is pure speculation but that move makes sense to me. You see if FN Herstal doesn’t China and their AVIC, CASC, CETC, CASIC, CSSC, CSGC could get a lot more revenue. Norinco is unlikely to make that cut as it has been a really bad boy, but that could be my personal view on the matter.

Enjoy the day.

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February 5, 2024 · 02:54

van Speijk paradox

It is not a real paradox, although I would claim it was one. I was looking at the Russian losses and I was looking at the Forbes article (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/complete-stupidity-and-incompetence-as-two-russian-tanks-collide-while-attacking-near-donetsk/) when a few things came to me. There was the case of a police force known as the comedy capers.

You see, when tank commanders are so ‘untrained’ optionally short sighted that we are given ‘Two Russian Tanks Collide While Attacking Near Donetsk’. Some tankers would call this utter stupidity. I am not gifted with tank experience, as such I cannot say that. But the overall the light of Russian intelligence is dimming. To see this, we need to take a look at exhibit B.

There we see that the tanks have been diminished by almost 48%, APV’s are down 42% and artillery systems 46%. The 20th strongest army in the world did this to the 3rd strongest army in the world. I spoke earlier about the logistical farce that is the Russian armed forces and on that note we see several other failures.

What is the van Speijk paradox?
Van Speijk was a Dutch naval commander and on 5 February 1831 he decided that as he could not stop the Belgiums from taking his boat, he decided to fire into the powder room and boom went his boat in the harbour of Antwerp. According to some it was beautiful. He, his men and most of his enemies stopped living in that precise moment. The Russian paradox is there as these people should have known better. Their mistakes are dealt with in Tank operations 101. As such I wonder if it wasn’t intentional. Better be out of commission than blown up. But it is speculation, I have no evidence to support this other than the little I know from the 80’s. So are the soldiers that incompetent or just scared? It is an important questions and I have no evidence one way or the other. The one part I do know is that the Ukraine send 387,940 people for fitting into body bags to be shipped back to Russia. That short war is now 2 years, some short term war and it is getting worse. With the rearmament of the Ukrainian forces and the Russian forces losing more and more hardware (specifically tanks, APV’s, airplanes, helicopters and that list goes on. Russia is losing this and the Russian troops are demoralising more and more. 

It all sounds good for the Ukraine, but there is a snag that is starting to show up. We are now mere steps away from Russia becoming desperate and that tends to be a bad thing. No matter what they do there is most likely a European impact. That is what I feel is likely to happen. Scandinavia and Germany are the most likely targets, but I am speculating here. On the upside a war on two fronts will break Russia. Their logistics are shoddy, their trained staff is mostly dead and what gets conscripted will do so without decent equipment and spring is at least 8 weeks away. All that adds up to a riddle of bad news for the Russian forces and it leads to more demoralisation on the Russian front. 

You will consider my view to be wrong and that is fine. But you just look at the Russian losses numbers and all the news from Russia and see where that point of view leads. 

Have a nice day.

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January 23, 2024 · 22:17

Spy Games

The first thought I had. An excellent movie with Brad Pitt and Robert Redford, yet what would you think when I told you it is now the BBC who engages this scenario? In comes the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67945137) giving us ‘UAE has funded political assassinations in Yemen, BBC finds’. Finds? Found how? Is my initial feeling. I am not stating that the UAE is innocent, I cannot prove that, but can the BBC prove it? So here we get “Counter-terrorism training provided by American mercenaries to Emirati officers in Yemen has been used to train locals who can work under a lower profile – sparking a major uptick in political assassinations, a whistleblower told BBC Arabic Investigations.” So what mercenaries? Not stating that this wasn’t happening, but the question becomes who and to what degree. You see, the presumption linked to “sparking a major uptick in political assassinations” is nothing more than speculation and who is that whistleblower? This first stage has two speculations absent of evidence and all this is linked to American mercenaries? Not the best or most credible source. Wouldn’t you agree? The best we get is that mercenaries possibly trained Emirati officers in counter intelligence. That is quite the leap towards assassination. As I personally see, the better hit is done by the three drivers. Separation, Isolation and Assassination. Yet we can all agree that this isn’t always possible, yet Yemen has a better stage. Get a Houthi rifle (sniper rifle with silencer is best), pay a few kids to be ready to paint ‘traitor’ slogans on the targets house and in the early evening blow his head of and at that very precise moment get those kids to paint the slogans with the reward of cash and each a bag full of food for the family. Not much required for that, was it? 

Then we are given “The BBC has also found that despite the American mercenaries’ stated aim to eliminate the jihadist groups al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) in southern Yemen, in fact the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members for a security force it has created on the ground in Yemen to fight the Houthi rebel movement and other armed factions” in this, where is the evidence that “the UAE has gone on to recruit former al-Qaeda members”, what evidence is there? The press has very little credibility left. As I personally see it, at best, the UAE has a list of Houthi terrorists and spread a list around with ‘There people are wanted dead or alive’, the fact that alleged members of Al-Qaeda see that as a way to make money is beside the point. You see, what evidence is there to state that former members of any organisation are now part of a UAE security force? You see the issue is evidence and we aren’t seeing any. 

This goes on with “The killing spree in Yemen – more than 100 assassinations in a three-year period – is just one element of an ongoing bitter internecine conflict pitting several international powers against each other in the Middle East’s poorest country.” Now consider that the UN gives us “Over 150,000 people have been killed in Yemen, as well as estimates of more than 227,000 dead as a result of an ongoing famine and lack of healthcare facilities due to the war.” This implies that they are dealing with almost 380K kills from various reasons. So where are these 100+ assassinations? Where is the data? Where are the names? We don’t get any and in the first example I gave you, how can you see or prove that there was an assassination and not an execution by who gives a darn? We cannot get the west the acknowledge the Iran backed Houthis attacking Saudi civilian targets with drones and now they have a case of 100+ assassinations? I have some serious doubts here.

Then we see links to two other sources the BBC iPlayer (UK Only) that is not evidence, it is merely a BBC recruiting drive covered in a chocolaty spy story. Then we get more emotions and “Leaked drone footage of the first assassination mission gave me a starting point from which to investigate these mysterious killings. It was dated December 2015 and was traced to members of a private US security company called Spear Operations Group”, so who leaked the drone footage? Has the drone footage been verified as authentic? And suddenly out of the shrubberies comes the Spear Operations Group, so who are they? Apparently a Delaware outfit. And the source gives us a meeting in London 2020. Not dripping in any level of evidence. The other scenario is that a former Navy seal told a BBC person a spy story and he got paid for this. There is no verification on ANY level. There is a photo (anyones guess if that is a real person) with “He refused to talk about anyone who was on the “kill list” provided to Spear by the UAE – other than the target of their first mission: Ansaf Mayo, a Yemeni MP who is the leader of Islah in the southern port city of Aden”, so we will not get any facts, other then the mention that Ansaf Mayo was a target. All the news started spreading these tales 8 hours ago. In a few cases a few hours before the BBC told their story. I have some serious doubts. So who was Ansaf Mayo? The BBC article gives us nothing apart from the fact that he was an MP, so why was he killed? What evidence is there that he was assassinated? What evidence is there that who did that to this person? The list of doubts go up and it all reflects on a simple Spy game story, nowhere near good enough to be the stamped with ‘Approved by John le Carré’. Last we get to ‘investigators from the human rights group Reprieve’ with the text “They investigated 160 killings carried out in Yemen between 2015 and 2018. They said the majority happened from 2016 and only 23 of the 160 people killed had links to terrorism”, so where is their top line data? Consider that that areas had a rather large slice of 380K deaths (this list is a subset of that number) and a group with little to no visibility for the longest of time has any data on 160 people and only 23 had links to terrorism? More questions, especially as too many parties (including the UN) have been silent on Houthi terrorism, they blatantly kept silent to smear the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this has been going on for years. The list goes on and on and this is the latest approach, now against the UAE. So what gives? The west angry that the UAE joined BRICS? They angry that the UAE is giving too much options to China? Your guess is as good as mine. I have no idea. I am merely questioning the validity of what the BBC is claiming here. I have my own version of these events, which I will not state, because it is pure speculation, I have no facts to support my version and I think that I have that in common with the BBC, we did not get to see any real evidence. Consider that if any of these sources were Iranian, or Iranian sympathisers the entire article collapses like a house of cards. 

Consider that as you start this Tuesday and I am about to enter Wednesday. A simple spy game story that isn’t worthy to sit on any shelf next to spy story masters like Le Carre, Ignatius, Herron, Greene or Deighton. It was a simple setting and I am rejecting what the BBC is telling us on the simple stage of missing evidence, missing verification and missing top line data in a stage where over 380,000 people were killed, finding 650 people (including children) that were assumed to be assassinated is extremely easy, the evidence was everything here and the BBC didn’t give us any.

Have fun today and that red dot on your chest? Pure imagination.

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January 23, 2024 · 00:07

First the giggles, then the howls

Yup, it all started late last night when I was alerted to an article (at https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/01/how-china-winning-middle-east/393483/) where we see ‘How China is winning the Middle East’. It is here that we are given “China is working to present itself as a responsible alternative to the U.S. in the Middle East, just as many are questioning Washington’s long-term commitment to the region”, the article was originally from January 19th 2024. Now consider that on September 9th 2021 I wrote ‘Lemon of the Century’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/09/09/lemon-of-the-century/), so I mentioned that danger over 2 years ago and it started happening a year later (alas, not my involvement) I initially wrote “I made a case to sell (as a corporate individual) to sell the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia either the British BAE Typhoon, or the somewhat better match the Chinese Chengdu J-20. Now, this is not on principles, but the US making Saudi embargo after embargo, all whilst it is mere puppet play and there was no direct need to stop the sales, especially as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was under direct attack by Houthi forces directly sponsored from Iran and the people were eager to ignore that fact. So there I was taking a stab at a 3.75% sales commission, and in light of a $11,000,000,000 sales ticket could bank me $412,500,000 over a few years. Now, I know, am I greed driven? Nope! But I am not walking away from such a massive mealticket!” As such it took defense one well over two years to see the dangers I saw clearly coming then. How laughable is that? What are these American three letter organisations doing? This wasn’t a surprise, this was clearly in view. 

So now we see “China’s narrative in this effort is one of not just opportunity for Middle Eastern states, but constant subtle or overt comparison between U.S. and Chinese goals in the region.” Say what? This was in clear view and I made several mentions in the last two years alone. So whilst you giggle on that consider that I am now calling the match Me (myself and I) versus DARPA a win with the final score being 6-0. I just realised that around three years ago I designed a stealth solution to sink the Iranian fleet (cost around $750K per vessel) yet I suddenly remembered that solution (I keep on designing other stuff) and the principles of Archimedes apply globally, as such they should have no problem with Russian vessels either. Not bad for a person that some see as a loser (well they do), but in the end it is creativity that wins innovation, it wins IP on a much larger scale and in support of that it could win a war too. If you doubt that, consider that “the basic idea of radar had its origins in the classical experiments on electromagnetic radiation conducted by German physicist Heinrich Hertz during the late 1880s.” So the Germans did not see the applications and they could have had an entire war advantage half a century long. In the end it was Watson Watt, Wilkins, and Bowen that turned it into something functional and that gave them the edge somewhere between 1930 and 1940. The application of my solutions are reimagined solutions of something that was out in the field. OK, my idea to melt down nuclear reactors came from a snow globe, so that is one that is all mine. 

When you consider that and the fact that I am calling a 6 point sore on DARPA you might howl with laughter and that is fine. But consider that I kept a lot on my blog. There is a timeline and DARPA has nothing to put against that and now we see that Defense One makes mention of a ‘danger’ all whilst I made clear mention of that well over two years ago. That is what it means to be asleep at the wheel. And I am not innocent of that either. You see I made mention of an idea some time ago and I just realised that it could be applied to the series Engonos (season 2 or 3) but I forgot about the idea (another reason to keep a blog). Now as it resurfaced in my mind I also realise that as I am concentrating on another script (How to assassinate a politician for Al Saudiya) that I am new to that. As such all writers (not just me) seem to think in active terms. There are four parts in any script (no technical reference), they are active, reactive and both can be endotherm or exotherm. Implying that from within or from outside sources. That was the part that as a storywriter you take notice on, but in writing a script that setting goes different. As such I suddenly remembered Ate, daughter of Eris and suddenly other ideas come flowing in, OK, some based on ideas my mind had created, but I never considered it as the entire setting of Engonos was not on my mind. That came well over a year later. 

You might wonder what one has to do with the other. Well, creativity goes in several directions and it was creativity in data that gave me the view of China becoming a much larger provider of Middle Eastern defence structures. It seems that Defense One only caught on a week ago. Now, that doesn’t make me ‘more’ correct, but when you see the settings how it was THEN, most people with BI insights would get similar conclusions. I did my ships engineering in the 70’s. Those principles gave me the idea for the stealth solution I designed decades later. Education matters, it might not matter now, but it allows the creative mind to see additional solutions, solutions that do not even exist when the thoughts were created. That is true innovation and that leads to larger advantages in any field. That is what some fat cats forgot about and as the stations are brought to bear they will all cry that it was unfair, but the reality was that they slept on. Only 20 hours ago the Business Standard treated us to ‘The online ad cookie is crumbling as Google Chrome secures privacy’ whilst another source gives us “Advertisers aren’t willing to pay as much for random internet users, so every time the page loads for a cookie-less Chrome user, it’s bringing in less money than it might have before.” The problem with these trains of thoughts was that I saw the announcement AT Google well before the first Covid shutdown, so it has been a while, so these people never prepared. How silly is that? Howlingly laughing silly. And that is where we see the stage. We giggle on some news, we howl at news and clams and we lose our shit laughing when we see that the non prepared mind should have known better and they all connect. Because change forces us to become creative, in two cases that wasn’t done. So whilst some may sneer and laugh at my claims, I put my claims out in the open on a blog and I did it 2 years earlier. The snow globe solution is there too, not sure how much I put online on the stealth vessel sinking solution (oh, SVSS sounds cool) but there you have it, we cannot anticipate everything. But I do like the idea that my idea could be applied to Russian vessels as well, as such, DARPA eat your heart out.

Have a lovely Monday. Tuesday started just now here.

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January 10, 2024 · 23:32

A 28 month delay

Yes, that is how I see it and it all started by a story in the Naval News (at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/red-sea-crisis-houthis-demonstrate-increased-capability-coalition-demonstrates-increased-presence/) they were not alone, but there I saw a quote that set me in motion. The quote that set it off was “The introduction of a one-way attack USV is of concern”, you see that was an incorrect statement. I made clear reference of this in ‘The Iranian play’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/30/the-iranian-play/) there I wrote “Yemen has no infrastructure for this, Iran is the only player willing to supply Houthi forces and that is the problem” I wrote this 28 months ago and in 28 months the Houthi forces never gained the ability to do so, they never had the option or (at that time) trained staff to do anything we saw. The west and others sat on their asses all whilst the problem evolved and ONLY now, now that the fat cats are losing margins in the red sea, NOW we see action. So how stupid was that to begin with?

Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/10/us-uk-forces-shoot-down-21-drones-and-missiles-fired-by-houthis) gives us “No injuries or damage reported in what the US military said was the 26th attack by the Yemen-based group since November 19” as I personally see it, this is pushed by others, happy to use Houthi forces as cannon fodder, but the west remains ignorant and I personally believe it is an intentional form of ignorance. 

Who did anything to stop these drones from getting there in the first place? I can’t have been the only one seeing this 28 months ago? So who was drowning the proper investigations? Who was stopping the media from asking the right questions? Perhaps it was all for the digital dollar. I doubt it, I personally believe this was another setting towards destabilisation of the middle east. It is a personal view and I might be wrong, but ask yourself. Now we see what was clear that many months ago? Are the red sea margins that important to the west? Are margins all they care about or is all that only possible as the middle east stays destabilised? You tell me, I am honestly clueless on what the answer is. Yet when you consider how long these Houthi forces are receiving support in hardware and training all whilst the west has been unable to stop them? 

Now consider three of the least capable parties in all this CIA, MI-6 and DGSE and no one saw this? I will let you ponder all this as the news comes in. Yet consider The Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/10/britain-warns-severe-consequences-houthi-attack-red-sea-repelled) giving us “The Houthis, once seen as a minor localised military force, say the attacks are intended to force Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza” all whilst I gave the lowdown 28 months ago and you tell me, who is doing a number of whom? 

Enjoy the moment when you are merely one day away from Friday.

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January 6, 2024 · 07:09

Media is done for

This is what I have been saying all along. Whoring for digital dollars comes at a price. Now, if it was only me no one would care. Yet at this point the stage is altering for the media. The Khaleej Times (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/gaza-crisis-has-become-global-media-war-uae-minister) gives us ‘Gaza crisis has become global media war: UAE minister’ with the byline “Al Gergawi called out the double standards and political agendas hindering true resolution of the Palestinian cause” It is a little less complex than that. You see media is exploiting anything they can to gain the digital dollar. Clicks are everything and as more and more media is aiming for that goal there is no place for political agenda’s other than the local ones protecting the media through their political connections (at home). This is what I regard to be the stakeholders game. As such this article touches me as it covers what I have been saying all along. 

So is it more correct?
That remains a danger. To seek out those who hold your view is what many do, but it is a dangerous path. If their (or your) setting is showing a flaw or is only partially correct, the premise becomes a dangerous one. You must always be able and willing to go back to the drawing board to verify and to double check whatever you believe in. It is essential that you can be critical of your own ideas. Mohammed Abdullah Al Gergawi, UAE Minister of Cabinet Affairs also gives us “This war was not only between the Palestinians and Israel. We also witnessed a global diplomatic war, international polarisation, and a global media war. Today, war is not won on the battlefield but rather in the media field, as he who has the strongest narrative shall become the winner.” In this I would like to add that it is not merely ‘the strongest narrative’, it is who employs the better and better connected stakeholders. They can win you the narrative war. It is not unlike the stakeholders on Capitol Hill. At some point the media figured out that these people could wage their media war FOR them and get kudos points that way. The winner then gets benefits and is more likely to gain the iterative advantage over digital dollars through clicks. The flammable populist voices are merely one side of this. To see this you need to be able to see how digital dollars are gained. How clicks are obtained. At present that is flaming for Gaza, but make no mistake, the moment that this changes to Israel all the narratives will alter accordingly and the media will have no issues with changing the voice. They will hide behind ‘The people are voicing this’. 

Gergawi in continuation gives us ““In 2004, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum gave a speech at this very forum about the need for finding a just solution for the Palestinian case based on international law,” he recalled. “Today, 20 years later, the case is still the most pressing issue in the region and the world.”” As such when we see that the digital click war has been raging on since 2015 the stage alters slightly but does not changes. The stakeholders of then are the same stakeholders of now, their game merely changed. They now have media moguls in their pockets as well. So who was stalling in those first 10 years? 

And this gets the added ““All the states that ask for this solution, I want to ask you, what did you do in the last 10 years to have this solution,” he asked of them. “Almost nothing. Since 2014, there has been no communication to solve the issue. If you were silent for ten years, why would you come back to the two-state solution? Just to prove to the world you are doing something?”” That is the question. I personally believe that there was a second war going on. The one I mentioned, but these same stakeholders were serving more than two masters. You see there is one part that remains unmentioned. I have made mention of this a few times before. I was not outspoken about this as I cannot prove it. There is no purpose served by howling against the storm. It tends to be pointless, it is never heard and it deflates your own energy levels. It is my personal view that the third war brewing under all this is (a speculated view) war served by Strasbourg and Washington DC. They need destabilisation of the middle east. Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the three points of pressure that the west required. The moment the Middle East realises that they are better off without the west, that is the moment fear strikes in the hearts of power players in Strasbourg and Washington DC. In all this the actions of inactions regarding Palestine start making sense. There is a clear need. America (and EU) require cheap oil. If they cannot get that, their economies implode. Their commodity needs are fuelling a transient and mobile workforce and without that these two places will have a whole new range of internal problems. 

The problem is how do you prove that? That is less easy to answer. The press is no longer impartial, they are partial to their digital dollars and will take whatever they can at all our expenses. By seeing several sources you get a slightly better view, but it is a filtered view and places like the ICIJ are a joke. They too rely on the media and clicks to be seen, so the story is adjusted accordingly.

And there is no solution, not until you get a real verifiable and reliable source, as such the press and media are no longer one. It has become a populist game for digital clicks.

On a sidenote
This is a little awkward, you see my offensive against Washington DC is taking a turn as this article and a few others made me see a new option. The match between Blogger (me) and DARPA is at present 4-0. I speculatively just saw a new way to find hundreds if not thousands of terrorists. Making the score 5-0 for yours truly and that is a personal goal worth winning for. It might never get me a dime, but to knock (at some point) on haven’s door stating that I made DARPA my bitch and defeated them five over nil is very tempting for the ego, lets be clear about that. In the end that match was my ego having a great time. The problem is that this new approach needs the NSA to wake up. They are the source of interest when it comes to layer one (hardware) issues and if I am correct that setting should be pushed through iOS and Android making them one of the few parties who could solve this. The article opened a door. There is a side I do not completely agree with even if what they say was true. It links to a few other parts that are not mentioned here and that got me thinking. What if we see both sides of that coin? Now, when it is on its back, one side remains invisible, but what happens when that coin falls on a mirror? If will not reveal that side either, but what if a mirror is a reflection of itself? That got me thinking on the sides that do not speak, to focus on the side that can speak and that gave me the idea. If my thought is correct you get more than an image, you get a timeline of total events and with that GEOINT becomes the power core of that setting. A transient force still requires deployment which is part of that solution. My mind remains racing towards that goal (my fifth goal over DARPA). I know it is selfish in nature and even more so when it is not bout money but about the ego. At times we need to feed that monster. The best thing anyone can do is feed it when it serves the best purpose and not to overfeed that monster. I get that, but feed it now and the voice of ego dies down enough, leave it alone and its voice will drown all other voices and that is the lesson the media never learned. They went from Cash is King to ‘Cash is king in the empire of clicks and clickers’ it was nothing more than self defeating short sightedness. 

It’s Saturday for me, Vancouver is still 12 hours away from the weekend. Enjoy yours.

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January 3, 2024 · 21:40

A strange evolving setting

I saw the article last night (really really early this morning) and it gave me something to think about. The article (at https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy/with-russian-oil-imports-falling-india-turns-to-saudi-arabia-2832708) comes from Deccan Herald. I do not know them, but it is an Indian paper. The west doesn’t seem to have this. So lets look at what is weird. 

It starts with “at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.” Then there is “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” so whilst we see that imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4 per cent, Russian oil declined by 22%, the numbers do not add up. I personally believe that Russia is in more trouble then they are letting on. I personally believe that a chunk of that oil is going to Iran to pay for drones. Iran might have oil, but it is embargoed, Russian oil is not and they can make transfer sales and fill their coffers up that way. Now, all this needs to be taken lightly, because there is only one source and I am speculating of that. Consider the deal Russian suppliers had with India. Also consider that by late July 2023, Iran had sent at least 400 Shahed and Mohajer series drones to Russia. That is close to $20 million, per $60 a barrel that is a whole lot of oil and the fact that India is getting less implies (implies is not a fact) that Russia has more than one issue at present. The Shahed drones are running out, more are needed and Russia (through several sources) are lacking in capabilities to get their own drones to the front. This all adds up that Russia has increasing issues to maintain their battlefronts, to maintain their Russian oil supplies and to maintain their manufacturing facilities. Napoleon lost with a lot less problems.

So whilst Saudi Arabia is seeing more revenue from their oil stocks, the question is how long that happens. It is not on Saudi Arabia, but once it is shown that Russia is lacking in a few ways the larger station comes that Russia will be fighting internal and external wars. 

So how right am I?
That remains the larger question. If any of the presented facts through sources is wrong, the entire domino wall comes tumbling down. None of this could be verified and the fact that only the Deccan Herald had this is also a point for debate. There are differences between the data of Kpler and Vortexa and that is fine. But the stage where Russia is delivering 22% less whilst there are implied reasons and none of this backed up by facts, together with the one mention of China with “China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes” makes me think that there is more going on and somehow someone paid for all those drones, Iran doesn’t give these toys away. 

So there is a stage where merely some of it could be right, but which part? 

In addition to Yesterday
Yesterday I talked about tourism. What I failed to mention is that there was data on the UAE. Reuters gave it 4 days ago (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-abu-dhabi-sees-non-oil-gdp-growth-77-q3-2023-statement-2023-12-29/), I missed it.  There we see ‘UAE’s Abu Dhabi sees non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% in Q3 2023 -statement’. This is huge and it is non-oil growth. Now, this is not merely tourism, this is on more sides, but tourism will be taking a chunk of this. Poland with 1.4% growth is the biggest in the EU last year. This implies that the United Arab Emirates outperformed all EU nations by well over 500%. That is massive. Now, comparing GDP’s is unbalanced and incorrect, I get that. However, these settings imply that tourism in the US and EU are taking a serious dive in 2024. We can debate that this is merely a hiccup, or that it is nothing, a mere blip on the radar. But in light of their faltering GDP and places like Greece, Spain, Italy, London, Paris, New York and Florida need tourism these blips could have severe impacts in these places. If continued there is every chance that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will get access to $25-$30 billion and other places do not. Do you still think it is a little hiccup? Even when we see “Florida visitors contributed $101.9 billion to Florida’s economy and supported over 1.7 million Florida jobs (2021)” now consider that to be 5% less. How many jobs will go south? The European nations cannot even consider losing that much, it would be like the impact of Greek tourism (2002-2008) but now over three nations. That impact will be seen. 

So how accurate is this?
It is not. The reported numbers from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, but how it affects others is not directly seen and can only be speculated on. What is clear that money spend there will not be spend anywhere else and that implies well over 25 billion lost to other places. How much each is impacted remains a guess. 

So enjoy the day and consider that special deals this summer will be all over Europe and America, so you might get a decently prized vacation this year.

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December 31, 2023 · 07:56

Here come the drums

That is the setting I saw yesterday. In the Netherlands We hear from the General of the army, or as some would say ‘hoogedelgestrenge generaal Martin Wijnen’ In most not so Dutch linguistic settings we can suffice with General Martin Wijnen. (At https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1850033/dutch-army-war-russia-eu-nato), in the article ‘Dutch must prepare for war! Army boss BEGS nation to arm up ‘as Russia getting stronger’’ we see the clear warning. There are too many indicators that Russia has no intent on stopping with the Ukraine. I used the British Newspapers Express. They weren’t alone, but at times we need to change venue. Whilst we might not agree with “The Dutch army chief has raised the alarm that “Russia is getting stronger” and that leader Geert Wilders, and his counterparts in the EU, needs to better prepare the Netherlands for war with Putin’s forces.” The clear truth of the matter is that Russia is about to mobiles up to 2.2 million soldiers. It is the old ‘dumb marketing strategy’ throw enough resources at a problem and the problem goes away. No matter how strong the Ukraine is, with that many additional soldiers they can just throw themselves at the Ukrainian battlements until the Ukrainian bullets run out. Not really the humane approach, but we never bothered to call Vladimir Putin out on that quirky detail did we? 

We were also given “The Netherlands should not think our safety is guaranteed because we are 1,500 kilometres away [from Russians].” I tend to agree. The fact that several nations are now sending weapons to Russia is also a factor. Russian junk is about to be replaced by working materials. The Ukrainians might have sunk a boatload of drones, but that is not all that is going there, is it? 

In addition we were given “The Netherlands is one of the founding members of NATO and is a staunch backer of Ukraine. Last week, outgoing PM Mark Rutte announced that his country would be sending Volodymyr Zelensky 18 F-16 fighter jets to fight the Russians.” Russia is unlikely to take kindly to that and there is no indication just how ready Germany and Poland are for an direct conflict with Russian forces, that 1,500,000 meter barrier is not going to last long is it? The best outcome is to make sure that the Ukraine wins this war, but at the speed that Russia is bombing the Ukraine, there might not be much left of it in the next 26 weeks. After that? I fully believe that the Ukrainians will fight for every inch of the Ukraine, but when there is nothing left one of the few options remaining is to fight Russia in Russia and that is a very different war, one they are less equipped for. 

As such I believe there is a lot of merit to the words of Martin Wijnen. The fact that the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands is pro-Russian will not help matters much, although the moment one assault on the Netherlands takes place he better change direction, or become the first Regent to face the deadly mobs since the execution of Johan de Witt on August 20th 1672. But not to worry, I feel certain that the media, YouTubers and TikTokkers will be there to cover it all in 4K.

The words of the general sound true. There is a worry and the worry should not be trivialised. No matter how it continues with the Ukraine, Russia needs a win, it needs one soon and Putin needs one to appease his Kremlin cronies. 

We have seen the damage that the Ukraine has dealt Russia, but they have a lot more and some of it actually works. My biggest fear is that Putin takes a lesson from the Hitler playbook and takes out a city in the Netherlands, not unlike was done on May 14th 1940. To think of that, how long until France, Germany and Belgium face that very same danger? I have no idea, and I reckon the rest of the world would instantly turn against Russia, still, there are too many ‘what if’s’ in that equation and I (for the most) hate what if settings. It fuels too much super good, or super bad thinking, extremes away from the expected and most unexpected norms. It fuels the wrong part of the thinker, which I personally believe is never a good thing. 

In all this General Wijnen is not alone in this setting, but I do believe too many nations remain silent on the matter. Germany spoke out for strengthening their armed forces, but in this setting the United Kingdom did not, neither (as far as I am aware) did France and for the most their Legion Etrangere is the only one ready to face whatever comes their way. And these 9,000 troops, their Legio Patria Nostra (or as I gigglingly call them, the well educated fathers of the night) could deal with about 40% of the total of Russian forces, but what would be left for the Dutch? OK, still enough, but France and Belgium better get ready to consider the darker setting of Europe as we consider the words of General Wijnen. 

So now on a lighter tone, it is time for the same joke I have been telling friends for well over a decade.

Q: Do you know the definition of sex 2023?
A: Todays is the last day to find out.

Enjoy this final day and stay safe around fireworks.

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December 29, 2023 · 12:15

In other news

There is news we do not get to see, because it is (my  speculation) in the interest of the western media to not show the better side of Saudi Arabia. I wrote about this particular issue before. But yesterday (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2431656/saudi-arabia) I saw ‘Saudi project clears 826 Houthi mines in Yemen in a week’. There we are given “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared since the start of the initiative in 2018”. In addition, the article also gives us “A total of 426,090 mines have been cleared, this include 269,250 items of unexploded ordnance, 142,455 anti-tank mines, 7,943 improvised explosive devices, and 6,442 anti-personnel mines” the larger station here isn’t merely the numbers. It becomes “Where do Houthi forces get these 426,090 mines?” You see, they have no infrastructure to create or manufacture these mines. They also lack funds to acquire them. I still see Iran as the great evil here, but in this I admit that this is speculation bordering presumption. The western media steers clear of this, why is that? The second part is that 826 mines a eeek implies 118 mines a day, that is nothing short of miraculous. Especially if you consider what is involved with mine removal operations. As I personally see it Saudi aid agency KS relief and its managing director Ousama Algosaibi, is due some high Saudi award and the west better acknowledge this part of the equation. The western press is already disregarded as a reputable news source and it is not getting better for them any day soon. 

There are several sides of this event that the western media have ignored and they have ignored it for the longest of times. So how much longer until the media is regarded as nothing more than a courtesan for digital dollars? This event matters. Houthi forces, Iranian backed 

Houthi forces no less have made larger parts of Yemen unliveable. Up to 5 million have been forced to flee their homes and to a larger degree due to mines. That gives us 15% of the population. Now, not all are due to mines, but when you consider the numbers you will agree that the media is not merely shunning its tasks, it has become a joke on several sides of the reporting equation. As such wonder why Arab News is covering this event, more important why others are not. To see the removal of 118 mines a day 365 days a year and they have been doing this since 2018. That is the larger setting (that and where Houthis got that amount of funds in the first place). The KS relief teams have been putting their lives on the line for 5 years and someone needs to stop, pause and realise this. We see the United Nations cry like little babies calling the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia evil and they ignore this part of the equation? 

I will let you figure that part out. Enjoy this day today.

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December 27, 2023 · 14:46

The carrot game

This is not a setting where we get entertained by Jasper Carrot (British Comedian). No this is about another game. To see this we need to take a look (at https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/26/us-military-training-saudi/) where we are given ‘US to Provide Military Training to Saudi Arabia Under $1B Deal’, you see, this sounds fine. Especially as training a fighter pilot (allegedly) costs $5.6M to train an F16 pilot and $10.9M to train an F22 pilot. The numbers add up quickly and as the article states there are more options there. What took me was “The latest agreement was made amid reports that Washington is considering the resumption of offensive arms sales to the Middle Eastern country.” When you look at “considering the resumption” that is the carrot. It is too late for that, or perhaps I need to be slightly more direct. Or you commit, or you get the fuck out of the way. That is the setting. America has wasted more and more and now they either commit or see their economy collapse, because without Arab billions (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) with support and additional sales to places like Egypt this party is taking of towards Asian borders. Now I do not care either way, I get no commission from any of this (alas). But the carrot game is too dodgy at this point and America needs to wake up. This is the final stretch. Baseball players call this the bottom of the ninth and the game was spoiled, crushed and squandered by egocentric players, diva coaches who were considering THEIR limelight and that list goes on and the media had a part to play as well. Now America needs to either commit or vacate the area. This is seen in other ways too. Defence One (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/09/lockheed-hungers-f-35-sustainment-deal-pentagon-says-it-might-not-happen/390380/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl) gave us in September ‘As Lockheed hungers for F-35 sustainment deal, Pentagon says it might not happen’. A stager I reported on months before that is now coming to fruition. Lockheed (under Pentagon scrutiny) have priced themselves out of the market. As such consider “Lockheed Martin says a new five-year deal to sustain the F-35 fleet won’t be reached by the end of this year.” Now consider what you saw with considering a resumption. So one side cannot afford and the other side will not deliver. How is that not a recipe for disaster? And lets be clear, with the Russian strategic gambles the USA and its NATO partners need to get as much revenue as possible. Especially as news is increasing that the Ukraine is low on ammunition. A stage no one wants to see. Because the one fighting team (team Ukraine) is the only thing preventing Russia to expand into Europe. They might be down on troops, but the Kremlin is not short of delusional aspirations. As such the defence blunders that are coming needs to be avoided and as such there is no space for “considering the resumption” it is way too late for that. On the other hand, the more revenue that is headed for the French coffers, the more France can contribute and that would be novel, the US has not depended on France since 1784 when it was still called the Kingdom of France. Then America didn’t have any revenue, now it has nothing left. As such there will be consequences for America. Which ones? I cannot say, I cannot even hazard a guess. But there are still the notions of France and some kind of alignment to the BRICS constellation. To what degree? There is no open data supporting it, but the news had been spreading. Russia is the only one against it, but as things go there won’t be much of a Russia left. On the upside as Russia is sending its troops to the slaughter there is every chance that Russia (whats left of it) ends up being the first matriarchal nation on the planet. If it happens it only took 3 years to get there. 

In these rocky waters and these larger changing stages America has little choice to either put up or shut up. Feel free to disagree, but look at all the data, do not trust the media by itself and you will see that there is a hiatus on data on several levels and the media never covered that? How come?

As such the NATO players need to reconsider who gives them what evidence and who exactly benefits the spreading  of filtered news. It is a simple enough question. Enjoy the few days between Christmas and New Years Eve.

Enjoy.

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