October 17, 2013 · 16:16

A new third World continent

At the final moments we see the news that in the 11th hour an agreement had been reached. Should we be happy? For now many will be happy, for now the Financial industry is relaxing and happy that their rent is safe, but the stress will return soon as the next ceiling will be reached in another 18 weeks.

So what is wrong with the USA today?

It sounds all fun and games to blame either the Democrats or the Republicans, yet overall, both have some level of guilt. Yes, at present the Democrats are wearing the hoodie of blame and shame, but the Republicans are not without issues either.

Consider that the government has maxed out the USA credit card. They have until now REFUSED in any way to take responsibility for the utter irresponsible spending. No, taxing more will not solve anything. That story is old, stale and redundant. If America would like to be taken seriously ever again it would have to cut no less than $350 billion in 2014. So, NOT more taxation, but LESSEN spending. That means if all was equal that every American will get $1000 less in support, which means that it would not impact the top 3% of the nation, but the others will have to pay. This is not me supporting the rich, this is me placing ALL politicians in a limelight where every spend dollar will be shown in the spotlight.

The Democrat story will be that they have a solution, and if these people pay just a few dollars more than….. It is nothing less than utter Bullshit! (Pardon my French!) With a debt of 17,000 billion dollar, a budget drop of 350 billion would mean that the interest of the outstanding debt could not be paid for.

On the other side, the Republican side will have to stop this ludicrous boast of less taxation. That is not, cannot and will not be a solution (for at least a decade). The debt must go!

But there might be a solution with the UN. When America has  been diminished to a third world nation, then perhaps the UNDP will offer support to the USA. I know, the irony of it all, go figure!

I have remained in favour of the US remaining strong from day 1; however, the Democrats refused to step up to the plate to do what needed to be done. The Republicans had stepped up to the plate, but in hindsight, the result was almost nil and they have not endeared themselves to anyone.

The voiced speeches by the Democrats as they are shown on TV stations all over the world today seem to be in bad taste too. I will make an exception for Democrat Harry Reid from Nevada. He had been in the middle in of what might be called a ‘small hell’. If the Navy Seals are used to be between a rock and a hard place, then this man outclassed them to several degrees these last two weeks, as a Republican minded person I will admit to that. I will go further to say that should Harry Reid go for the oval office, then he stands a chance to convert a decent group of Republicans too. Values like respect and moral coming from Nevada? What a tangled web we see!

For many non-Americans it is not about the pure Democrat versus Republican fight, it has always been about the massive debt and the risk they push upon many other nations. It is even a case that the voice of many non-Americans should be heard. When a nation like America has so many corporations that operate their business outside of the USA and as such put hundreds of thousands of workers on the spot as their futures are linked to the status of the USA, then they must realise that accountability remains an international factor.

On Sky News there is a hilarious movie, shot in old fashioned silent movie style explaining the debt ceiling. It is fun to watch and it tells the story nicely (at http://news.sky.com/story/1155554/shutdown-senators-pass-bill-to-avert-default), I do however disagree with one part of it. At 1:53 Ed Conway states one part I do not agree with. “If America was to default, it is not because it cannot pay its bills. It is because their political system would not allow it“.

That is the part that has been my major issue!

It is what I disagree with. If we consider the T-Bill rate of 2.66 (as it was this morning), to get the 16,700 billion in debt, to pay it back, if it was all in T-bills, then the US had to pay an additional 444 billion dollars in ‘fees’. This seems very very little. However, this was not done in one day; it was over many many years. The problem is that as risk grows, the people will be offered a higher return, because if the debt cannot be paid, those bills will become null and void overnight. In the end, that money must be paid and overall, even though for now it is paid, the outstanding debt as it grows and grows, will mean that the chance of EVER paying it all back will become less and less. Consider that the following amounts are due: 2022: $1276B, 2021: $1228B, 2020: $1652B, 2019: $1885B, 2018: $1017B. So from 2018 onwards, the returns will have to be paid to those T-Bill owners. The amount will be in access of 1 Trillion dollars a year. Can anyone explain to me how that payment can be met 5 years in a row whilst the on average the collected annual taxation in 2013 will be an estimated $1.9 Trillion dollars? This means that from 2018 onwards 53% of all collected taxation will go to people owning T-bills. How unrealistic a goal is this?

This is part of the reality politicians ignore (as they will not be in office when it happens) and the people who gets settled with the bills will not have anything left.

Consider in addition that the Tax evasion bill has not been pushed into effect (which means the rich will continue to have additional tax shelters this year) and the Dodd-Frank Act is STILL not active, giving the financial sector too many non-accountable freedoms (which will make sense late on). If you want to know more about the Dodd-Frank Act, take a look at the next link, it has an interesting cheat sheet on the latter one. (at http://www.mofo.com/files/uploads/images/summarydoddfrankact.pdf). Morrison & Foerster is a global law firm. It might have been for internal use, so send them a thank you note if you download it. It is the easiest read in regards to this topic I have ever seen. They also have Patent and Trademark litigation, so I should send them my resume when I get my MIP after my next semester. Cool!

If you wonder about that reasoning after my strong voiced disgruntlement, then remember that the US is a great country. In my mind it was sold down the drain by politicians and exploiters. If we muzzle the first and neuter the second, the US could be a great nation quite quickly again, which would be good for Europe too. A win-win solution I say!

So why aren’t more people nervous about the entire deficit and debt ceiling? That is the part that does not make sense to me. Rolling over debts is a dangerous habit. The definition is clear enough, the dangers on adverse percentages is even more risky as politicians played 11th hour resolution makers. The second part is one that many more are ignoring. This is all based upon 100% of the due payments rolling over. What happens when another nation has a slightly stronger return? What happens when only 80% is sold? Is that such a hard concept? So at that point, where will the required $200B-$275B come from, additional raise of the debt ceiling? I have no actual facts to work from, so I do not know what the level of risk is, but consider that between 2018-2022 no less than $1T in investments are needed, and that the larger wallet friends (like the UK, FR, DE, IT and AUS) many of them at the maximum tapped out amount. How long until THEY (read governments) start the ‘swap’ game? Is that not how we lost most of what we had because we could not control the banks, now we let them advice on the same game, but now with full government budgets? So, we will not be looking at just a few trillion, when that game goes bust (and such a game always goes bust), the population will be stuck with a bill between $70T and $90T. How will we survive that?

Let us not forget that all those actions are taken in closed rooms with only a few insiders fully in the loop. If the next election causes reasoning for full disclosure on such events and only a referendum will allow for this, then the game will not just change fast, it will leave the USA on the outside looking in. A fact is that this risk grows almost exponentially each year the deficit is not dealt with. If Germany has been under pressure for the EU issues from Bernd Lucke and the UK from Nigel Farage from UKIP then we should expect additional players who will be fueling these fears. The upcoming price fight might not yet be the main event, but the debt ceiling issue that comes after the one on February 9th will be a main event and it will likely involve more players then just the US, several of them are unlikely to be one of the 18 Bernanke disciples.

So here we are, and only hours after Jill Treanor wrote her article ‘Financial Conduct Authority launches currency markets investigation‘ on the Guardian at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/16/financial-conduct-authority-currency-markets-investigation-benchmarks.

This is a must to read!

Guardian’s Youthful Young City Editor, all complete with her own copy of SAS Miner plugged into her brain started today with “Suspicions that the vast global currency markets may have been rigged by major banks and traders has sparked the City regulator to launch a formal investigation into the £3tn a day market.”

This goes way further than just the LIBOR scandal. Earlier this year I had some doubts on all of this. My doubts were not on the interest part; my thoughts were that the main amount involved, which the percentages were based upon had also been tampered with in some way as well. I still expect my $1T bonus when that gets to be proven!

So what if the benchmark is not JUST the foundation, but part of more. You see, if we consider that governments have been involved in T-Bill Swaps, then the tradeable amount involved is not correct. More precisely, if the volume of T-Bill swaps is to the amount deficits go, then in which direction are the percentages rigged? It might accidentally involve the ‘accidental’ mentioned group of larger wallet friends. Now consider that Germany at present is the only one with an economy more on the stable and positive side then all the other players. So, would there be additional benefits for them in the long run? I actually do not know this (self-confessed lack of economic education), but the fact is that these issues go far beyond the banks themselves. Perhaps that is why the Dodd-Frank Act was never activated? It is just a thought.

So my advice for today, instead of long term investing your $5, this morning, have a pastry with your coffee, because at times there is nothing better than short term gratification and pastries will usually do the trick.

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October 16, 2013 · 17:08

The irradiated Geisha

It is the Guardian that inspired my thoughts today. They come slightly easy as I was naughty/desperate enough to skip my medication last two days for a law essay (sorry doc!), so I actually feel awake today. It was the article “Plummeting morale at Fukushima Daiichi as nuclear clean-up takes its toll” (at http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/15/fukushima-nuclear-power-plant-cleanup) that is the fuel for my inner fire today.

I covered part in my blog ‘Glowing in the Dark‘ on world animal day (not the worst date for upper management of TEPCO). The Guardian, of course always loaded with good reporters, touched on a part I had not looked at before. (Those reporters do cheat as they got to go to Japan). The moral issue, especially in light of the 20% pay cut the TEPCO workers took. Which is interesting considering that the company still made 4.5 billion last year (according to their own presentation, linked in the other blog). So, almost 4% leaves, rest working on 20% less, in a country that is expensive to begin with. And morale issues were not predicted? Hah!

I still remember my old days of learning and the exercises from the Dutch 101 NBC Decontamination Company. I still remember the wash streets and so on. I might actually make some decent pay over there, and if I start to glow in the dark, I can personally cut back on electricity costs.

But in all seriousness, the 4% the workers lost and the cut backs they face, TEPCO has more hard times ahead. If they keep on being this careless with their options, more people will walk out and it would make it possible for competitors of TEPCO to walk in. Even though the site JapanToday stated ‘TEPCO too big to be allowed to fail‘, we should seriously consider that future. Even though it is disastrous to consider the short term effects of a failing TEPCO, the issue does remain that too many acts by the high board of TEPCO is in my humble view too much about rolling out ‘gracefully’ with a golden Geisha instead of fixing it all, is cause for major alarms. If Japan wants to fix this, then perhaps it needs to take another approach, one that is actually in line with the old ways of Japan and very much a proven strategy. I do believe that, at times the old ways remain the best. Allow the new hungry Chubu to walk in and get 50% of TEPCO, they must in return accept the cleaning burden (with government financial support) and the government should use the other half, for now in government hands to keep it all rolling and to slowly hand off to the other power brokers as to not upset the balance of energy. It would also create a competitive edge in Tokyo allowing for energy prices to remain competitively low. So, like the Dutch did with SNS Reaal, just nationalise TEPCO overnight and change the locks.

The comforting kicker? Make a mandatory sentence to the TEPCO board of directors of no less than 2 year serving in this troubled era to serve as junior consultants for Chubu at 1 yen a week, a public way to saying to these boards that what they did was utterly unacceptable.

You see I have a few issues with the article in the Guardian, not on the Guardian side; they did roll out an excellent article. But consider the following quotes: “Another worker, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he had seen hungover colleagues collapse with heatstroke just minutes after beginning work.” and “In the long term, Tepco and its partner companies will struggle to find enough people with specialist knowledge to see decommissioning through to the end, according to Yukiteru Naka”

If we look at this statement in regards to the previous two “For Tepco, money is the top priority – nuclear technology and safety come second and third. That’s why the accident happened”

From those three statements I see a strategy grow. If you cannot walk away from a situation, then make sure the system collapses on itself. It is my personal view that this is what is happening. The pressures, hardship and the continued drive without moral care is exactly what will happen if no fast change is made. In the end, my bank account would love the idea of me going over there as a senior consultant, but in all honesty, if the Japanese government does indeed want this all fixed, and preferably long before 40 years, then an entirely different approach will be needed. This view is actually supported by Ian Fairlie, a London-based independent consultant on radioactivity in the environment gives voice that TEPCO is not convinced the current situation is genuinely voiced by TEPCO (as mentioned by the Guardian). He sees a system that hides behind pride. Even Japanese government officials are considered less than welcome, if we can believe the information we could all openly read. I see, not a company claiming in pride that they can do this. I see a worried and scared board of directors, wondering what skeletons will show when outsiders will dig into their systems. If the Japanese government and the world gets to see more then the mere glimmer I saw, they will turn around and publicly obliterate these members. The two years that followed the disaster shows gaps on several layers. The 20% cut was the biggest of all errors, they should have given those people in Fukushima a 10% raise and add mental health consultants. This would have fired them up to be motivated to be long term members of a clean it up team.

Perhaps that is the worst of the nightmares for the TEPCO directors, not that it must be cleaned, but that after the cleaning is done, it will become empty land with no value to use. Spending fortunes into a land that will serve the future, not the present, that is the fear of greed and it is too visible in this case.

 

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October 15, 2013 · 19:10

In Media, we distrust!

Is it not a lovely day when you wake up, you go downstairs and if it is warm enough, likely in nothing more than a simple bathrobe you sit down. At this point, whether it is inside, or outside, you get the first start of the day with coffee and the newspaper. For most people, that part had been for a long time a slice of heaven.

We would go through the news whilst sipping tea or coffee (in my case the latter). What if I told you that these times are now forever a thing of the past?

My reasoning? For this I will go over each case in three parts. First the point I make, then the reasoning for that point and lastly the motive I personally think is behind that. I would like to add sources, but at times there are little to none and it is all based on common sense.

First there is no need to rehash the entire Leveson history. That reports was made and filed and suddenly the press was all uppity uppity on ‘the freedom of speech’ and how their rights are now no more.

Let us take a look at this part.

1. How often does the press report on privacy violations by large companies like Microsoft?

Answer: almost never. I found one article by the guardian, and a few by what we would normally all less reliable sources. (at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/30/microsoft-privacy-chief-nsa)

Motive: The publications rely on big business (advertisements). It relies less on governments as their form of income and in addition, government is always seeking visibility, big business brings in money. In this situation I personally think that the press seems to be willing to ‘ignore‘ or whisper very softly certain events.

How about Microsoft HealthVault?

They state: “Privacy, It’s your HealthVault account. You decide who can see, use, add, and share info, and which health apps have access to it. HealthVault won’t provide your health information to any other app or service without your permission.”

Venturebeat had the following interesting quotes “For instance, Microsoft reserves the right to store your medical data offshore, in countries that may not have the same privacy protections as the U.S.”

“HealthVault appears to open the door to a potentially unlimited line of people, entities or programs that can obtain permission to read and alter your health information, since it’s possible to delegate the ability to grant those permissions to others.” If did find a few mentions by CBS and ZDNET, yet the papers (the big ones) did not show up in any search. Even though this issue is not that recent, it is still interesting that the big ones aren’t anywhere near this place.

If we consider that this means that if an insurer gets access to this, then the smallest visit to the hospital could result in an increase to your premium. This is all linked to the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act 1996. There we find that the HIPAA Privacy Rule regulates the disclosure of Protected Health Information held by what we would call “covered entities” (employer sponsored health plans, health insurers, and medical service providers that engage in certain health transactions.) By regulation, the Department of Health and Human Services extended the HIPAA privacy rule to independent contractors of covered entities who fit within the definition of “business partners”.

So, if these contractors are outside of the national borders, your health data goes into several other directions too.

Consider that we volunteer this and other personal data to Microsoft (your Skype, your software, your Microsoft devices and your browser). How long until you represent a Z-Value? Not before too long, you are diminished to several Z-Values, and as your value depletes to below the norm, what options will remain for you?

Yet, the press seems to banter again and again on NSA and GCHQ. The question becomes, whether the press is nothing more than a simple tool to make us look the wrong way, whilst big business has a free go at us and our personal details.

I do not claim to know what the actual truth is here, but I do know that the press has not been focusing on the wider truth and reality too much lately. That is something that becomes slightly more visible when we read Claire Fox in her smug article (at http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/leveson-has-done-his-damnedest-to-encourage-press-regulation-despite-his-protestations-8874676.html)

When you hear the actual response by his Lordship in regards to WHY he felt it was inappropriate to answer, Claire just trivialises it in the air of “that he would not play ball“. Let us not forget that it is her right to see things in the way she did, I will not attack that, but this situation left me with question marks on how far ‘misrepresentation‘ goes at present.

So if big business is protected through non-visibility, then why don’t we just get rid of all journalists and rely on bloggers? The digital world is ready for it all, journalists no longer seem to be truly ‘story‘ driven, when the bulk hang on the usual GCHQ drab anyone can get from Reuters and the bulk of the big business transgressions remain on blogs, I wonder where the journalistic pride and ethics remained as they claim their part in their need for ‘freedom‘.

2. How will many protect their children and finances if visibility remains low on issues that have an impact? Many PC’s and tablets get linked to games that are ‘proclaimed’ to be free. Yet, when you want to move forward, you can pay for additional options.

The BBC covered this on September 25th (at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24272010). The Guardian seemed to have covered the same story and that is pretty much it. So why is there not a lot more visibility?

I had a look at a program called ‘Dragon Story‘. It looks nice, it is a little non-adult, but it has a few original sides. You can breed two dragons together and they leave an egg. You can hatch that egg and get a new different dragon. You can buy many of them, or if you take the time breed your collection. This is all pretty original. The dragons in their habitats collect money and that money can be used to grow your area. Yet, the part not shown is that some dragons are rare, some habitats (larger ones) are expensive. Smaller habitats can be bought with coins, but the larger ones must be bought with gold. That costs actual money. A child can without realising it spend $20 per habitat, some dragons; the really rare ones cost $50. So in 30 seconds a child can spend more money than a full version of Grand Theft Auto costs. It is clear that actions can be taken to prevent some damage, but the visibility is not there. Why?

In reflection upon ‘Dragon Story’, an addictive game named ‘Blockheads’ (a 2-d version of Minecraft) can also be downloaded for free, and you can buy an upgrade so that all actions go twice as fast. The price, $5! Now an additional option can be bought for $3, so that the player can play in higher resolution, a total of $8 for something that need not be bought, the choice is up to the player. THAT is what I call an excellent approach!

So where is the press here?

It cannot be for the lack of ‘public’ interest, as the tablet market in the UK alone is soaring towards 190 million owners this year. That is more than the total global owner base of the PlayStation 2 used to be (which was 150 million). So, one could say that tablet issues should be at the top of every newspaper. The Google search seemed to contradict this (I had to start somewhere).

So when we look at these heated arguments on the freedom of the press, we should be asking ourselves what they are complaining about. Freedom is nice, but when they relate it to the limits of their cubicle we get to miss a lot of information, the press and especially their editors should realise that.

In my view, to the extent I had read the Leveson report, I saw it not as an attack on the freedom of the press, but on the ‘enforcement’ of ethics and accountability. Those two are elements in any form of Journalism. For I am never against the freedom of the press, I do think that some acts require accountability. The hollow phrase ‘the people have a right to know’ lost its value when some used it to tabloid away all levels of privacy. Crashing a funeral less than two weeks ago by the Daily Mail is an excellent example of that. I do wonder whether all this is just about the journalists, or was the Leveson escalation due to a failing by the editors to keep a proper pulse of the journo’s they are supposed to mentor. To that I have no honest answer; there are too many murky facts in the open.

The PRESS fallout has been a long one and we are not there yet!

 

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October 13, 2013 · 01:01

Beyond Two Souls

Beyond Two SoulsIt is hard not to be trivial about a new game. It is always a new version of…. or a sequel of…or in this case, an evolution of…

If you want the short and sweet of this game then think Dragons Lair mixed with Half Life/Resident Evil. Beyond Two Souls is from the makers of Heavy Rain, and many would like to compare that, but I never played it, so that part we (me and my keyboard) will skip that comparison in its entirety.

For those under 30+, when Dragons Lair was first released it was like nothing you had ever seen. Consider the early 80’s, console games were in 8-bits. In that same year, EA releases the pinball construction kit and Origin Systems released Ultima 3. 8-bit graphics were not really that great, and in that same year Disney’s Famous Don Bluth is centre to a game that has Disney quality graphics using a laser disc. To give you an idea, consider Xbox graphics in the time of the CBM-64. All our minds were blown. The game was simple, you see segments of a cartoon, and by pressing the right direction on your joystick, you continue, or you die. The system was simple, but the result would not be equalled for at least 15 years (without a laser disc).

Now take that concept and take it in a more modern and more interactive setting and you get Beyond Two Souls.

Wait!

Do not think of this as a simple game, as I said, it was trivialised!

The reality is that this is more than a mere evolution! This game is the first one I witness that uses the 6-axis controller to the maximum degree it can. I want to add to that, that the interactivity between the player and the game is the most complete I have ever seen. It is almost the game Nintendo could imagine, but could never make into a reality!

This game is something else. The story is given to you in a shuffled way! Frank Miller thinks more linear then that, but that does not matter, the story holds on to you like a jigsaw and the picture it paints slowly evolves into a masterpiece, a chronological approach would never have worked this well. Ellen Page IS the real star, as both actress and as character. Willem Dafoe is the supporting character, and as such he is the support, however he is also the glue that holds many of the pieces together. The voices and the looks give you a view into this story like you never seen it before. You control Ellen/Jodie in an amazing way. Like my favourite slogan from FX, ‘The story is everything’ and this story does not fail to deliver.

So, you control Jodie through events with an ‘assistant’ and as such you control where she walks, how she drives and how she interacts. In action scenes your controller becomes control, and as such you interfere with what she does, do it wrong and she does get hurt. This is actually most awesome during fight training. Get it wrong and she gets dropped to the floor, hard! That sequence is actually one of the cooler moments. You get to do it again and again, until you get it 100% right. It actually felt like you were experiencing a martial workout. Very cool!

There are other moments where it is a little unsettling as you might achieve the control over it. The directions for a new player seem a little ‘off’ in the beginning. As I said, the 6-axis controller had never been used to THIS degree before. Tilting it to the left or right (the entire controller), to empty a bucket. To sharply lower the controller as you jump of a wall. Shake when you are being held. It was an awesome experience.

As stated, you get a disjointed story, chapter by chapter and as you start at the end, you jump forward and backwards into the story, it really works! Without linearity you see parts and not know what does and does not connect. As you take control of Jodie or the ‘assistant’ the story unfolds. Uniquely, this game can be played by two, so if you do that, then one controls Jodie, the other the ‘assistant’, a pretty unique experience for this type of game.

Then the graphics, they are high in standard; however there are moments that will do more than blow you away. In a few close-up cut scenes, you control Jodie, and in those moments Ellen Page looks better and clearer than she does on Blu-ray. These are uncanny moments.

I am not giving anything away at this point, so you’ll need to get through it yourself. However, there are ‘hidden’ or hard to spot interacting points. If you get to them you can unlock a bonus. Not sure yet what they are and I only found one so far, but that means that this game has more to offer then you think. I am also predicting that when I was offered a certain choice, I unlocked an achievement. I feel a certainty that going another way will give a different achievement, so replay and experimenting is a part of all this.

So, what about the verdict?

It is a top notch game with a 90% rating. It is no ‘Last of us’, it is no ‘GTA’, it is an evolved game and this game is nothing less than a master evolution of whatever it used to be and the game is better for it. This leaves me with certainty that we will see more versions of this game, especially considering the optional additional interactions on a PlayStation 4 controller, which means that Beyond 2 Souls is only the tip of the iceberg and that already blew me away on the PlayStation 3. So the future of the PlayStation 4 seems to be a solid one. The music which involved Hans Zimmer, a legend in soundtracks, gives this game the atmosphere it deserves. So was this an interactive movie?

No, it is a game where you move, walk around and interact/search for clues and events. In addition it must be said that it has a few really small flaws. At times her movement seems a little less liquid, but not as irritating as we saw with Resident Evil. In addition, the move you make is depending on what you see that means if you are ready to punch and the camera shifts to the other side, that you move you had in mind would be the wrong one. That is part of the gameplay challenge and this game plays that part without a flaw. Whatever flaw it had, was purely the user of the controller. In the end, you will have taken Jodie, from being a small girl of 6-8, to a battle hardened, beat the crap out of anything goddess though places from Urban, to Military complex, to the middle of the desert. The story remains an awesome experience.

There is one other side to all this, it is one that is futuristic. As we see more and more of these games evolve with the use of professional actors, it will not an unrealistic thought that the Videogame industry will actually get its own Oscar category. If so, then Ellen Page might become its first recipient.

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October 10, 2013 · 00:47

Economic management through newscasts

When you think of the title, you might think that there is no real issue. You might think that certain events always take place and that the news covers it. However, when you monitor the news in several nations, you might see a different line of information.

So, let’s go through the motions and reveal that part that several did not consider, perhaps you should reconsider this in all sincerity.

The first red light was lit when I observed the Dutch news at the NOS. The message was innocent enough. The Dutch Bank has a new president. The man Klaas Knot was voiced on Dutch TV stating [translated] “although the numbers are not here yet, my feeling is telling me that we have passed the recession, and we are now at the start of economic recovery“.

In light of several numbers in the past that were in my personal view clear attempts to manage bad news, numbers that were used as proverbial straws to minimise actions are now surpassed that the economy is on recovery. As I stated before, we are more than a year away from that. So, why are people getting this news? The facts and numbers are a month away. Is it perhaps all about the US deficit ceiling? That 17 trillion dollar debt, oh what a feeling!

Klaas Knot is working from the information on growth from foreign nations. As they left the recession, the Dutch should follow. Another factor mentioned is that real estate prices are not falling any further. In that regard I wonder if that would be an actual possibility. If the houses fall any further, it would only mean that people stopped selling until the prices go up again. However, the NOS did report in summary that growth is not directly visible, especially considering that unemployment rates will go up further this year. I reckon that they might not improve until late second quarter 2014. There is also the actual growth to consider. I reckon that the growth in the first year is unlikely to grow beyond 0.5%, which would already be a good achievement.

So why do I without the economic degree oppose the president of the Dutch Bank who is likely to have a few economic degrees?

First of all, I am willing to doubt my view, however, after we have seen the Dutch predicaments as they cannot find the ability to cut 6 billion and as they struggle with minority groups to get anything done at present in that pesky regard of cut-backs. In addition, on July 11th I wrote a blog on the Dutch pension system and how they would cut 3 billion a year (in ‘Boosting Pensions’), that did not pass the Dutch First Room comparable to the House of Lords in the UK). The only question remains whether those 3 billion were part of the 6 billion euro package or not. If not then fine, if yes, then matters blow up in many faces. However, not to go for the worst scenario, the cut backs do mean that at present the purchasing power of Dutch citizens will decline more, so economic growth will remain out of the people’s reach until 2015. That does not mean that Klaas Knot is wrong, I do however belief that this optimism is linked to another event and should be slightly less optimistic.

The odd thing was that Klaas Knot was stating towards NOS news that it was important for political Netherlands to quickly come to an agreement on controlling government finances, also for 2014. That was a weird quote to be placed as a statement and not in answer to a direct question. So was he aiming for the budget agreements, opening the fountain of Dutch pension accounts or both? The latter seem to be in my mind. However, the NOS newsroom phrased that this was about the 6 billion in cut backs. Yet, if this is a play to get things rolling, it is good that it was followed by the statement from the Prime Minister to not get too optimistic. So why were we seeing these two parts?

The second red light did not become visible until the day after. The same day I get the news on a diplomatic escalation in the Netherlands, sky News UK comes with an entirely different matter. Two elements seemed to be in play. The IMF suddenly lifted the economic growth for the UK by 1.4% for 2013 and for 1.9% for 2014. Those are numbers that are beyond remarkable. Sky News showed Olivier Blanchard the Chief economist of the IMF to make this statement. It was interesting that the IMF calls on Christine Lagarde to give the bad news and Olivier gets to give the good news. There was a shimmer of hope for realism as Ed Conway, economic Editor at Sky News was happy to not reject the notion that the IMF have been lousy forecasters in the past to say the least.

In my view these two red lights are all about managing bad news. This is the preamble to the rising risk that if the US debt ceiling is not raised, we would end up receiving a spill of utter recession that will go on for a long spell. ‘Suddenly’ there was good news, a week before the debt ceiling needs to be raided, whilst the US is still in shutdown mode. Let us not forget that Greece, who also suddenly had ‘good’ news last week is still beyond broke, in addition France and Italy are still not in good shape. The biggest issue is that the UK forecast, which was +0.6%, which was a pretty good achievement to +1.4%. That boils down to a miscalculation of almost $18 Billion! That is a massive miscalculation. There is no indication that such errors were made. Consider that the IMF had high criticism towards the tactics by Chancellor George Osborne, UK’s faithful exchequer.

Three sudden good news moments are too much for just some level of chance. This reeks more and more towards managing impending moments of Doom. In that same newscast President Obama kept on chastising the Republicans. Yet, also to my surprise, several players in the media are giving little or no visibility to the republican side of things. The Democrats are so willing to raise debts again and again, yet the overspending as it is could sink us all and no one seems to be reacting to that part.

So is this raising of credit rates just so that a paper loan for the US can be parked on top of the 2 Trillion dollar debt the UK has? That part is speculation on my side, but it is clear that the recession is nowhere near solved until mid-2014 and only after that will we see decent levels of recovery. In that regard I do consider that those who are managing these numbers are playing a very dangerous game, I admit that this last part is my personal view, but I reckon that many in the UK, Netherlands and Greece can clearly see that improvements are pure speculative and there is no evidence that it will actually happen before 2015 (if they are lucky). The Greek situation was partially confirmed that Greece will need another 10-11 billion Euro bailout mid-2014, as reported by Jennifer Rankin (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/13/greek-bailout-back-on-agenda-as-eurozone-finance-ministers-meet-live), so a nation that is in recovery still needs 1000 euro for every Greek?

The reality of this global game will not be known for another week, but in the mindset of a Lemming it is likely that the quality of life we used to know, for now, only remains in the mind of the terminally ill and only if they do not expect to live past June 2014.

I sincerely hope I am wrong in this case, but the numbers are to some extent there, it seems to me that when coming to some conclusions the weighted events are considered. This is not an abnormal thing to do, however when we deal with several outliers in data, the weighted results tend to throw away those numbers and as such the bad news is never a correct, which does the trick for some, but it leaves Joe Public with a nasty long term invoice at the end of the journey.

 

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October 9, 2013 · 13:03

Diplomatic Disbelief

Even though the economy is about to take a weird leap, which will be discussed in the next blog, the events as they unfolded on last night’s news by the NOS is taking a weird step to say the least.

So, on Tuesday evening, the NOS decided to release information on events that happened last Saturday. Now, these things happen. Whether it is just average news, or embargoed news, the fact that diplomatic grounds were transgressed upon, whilst as far as it seems with an utter lack of viable reasons is something that seldom happens. It might actually be a Dutch first, but there it is, the Dutch police thought it was to some level a good idea to enter the premises of a member of the Russian Diplomatic Corps.

Since when is that not major news?

So let us go over the facts for as much as we can.

As the NOS reported, on Saturday the Russian diplomat Dmitry Borodin was arrested in his apartment. This was due to neighbour complaints about the safety and danger to his children.

So, here

  • First, diplomatic grounds were violated.
  • Second, the diplomat was taken away, even though, according to his statement, he pointed out his diplomatic immunity.

Subtotal: this fiasco at this point involved the Dutch home office and the Dutch foreign office.

There are additional issues with the Vienna Convention on Relations and Optional Protocol on Disputes, but about that part later.

So let’s look at the time line.

This happened on Saturday evening, which means that the police commissioner should have received a phone call that scared him to death before midnight. He then wakes up the Dutch ministers Ronald Plasterk (Home office), Frans Timmermans (Foreign Office) and Ivo Opstelten (Justice). The simple reason is that when you miscommunicate from the top, you want that list to remain as short as possible. At that point, the arresting officers will get the picture that it will be a long weekend for them, as they get grilled and checked on every piece of paper they create.

The Russian side was simple; the man was released after three hours.

So at this point, it is Sunday, it is way too soon for lunch. Those four individuals are (or should be) earning their pay. However, did this happen? It seems not, as Kysia Hekster, NOS reporter investigates her story, I see none of these matters. The fact, that after the trivial matters that the NOS reported on Sunday and Monday and, this Tuesday story smells like Hamlet, (a foul stench that is coming from the news).

Important to realise that in the first, we do not know whether the policemen were morally wrong, they were definitely legally wrong to enter diplomatic premises. I wonder what their side is on all this, as I would want to hear this. The fact that Sky News did not seem to have picked this up and the Guardian picked it up only after the Netherlands did seems to indicate that several levels of embargo in place.

I have to admit that several facts do not add up. For one that only after arrival at the police station people learned that this was a diplomat. The fact that the address did not raise flags is an issue on several levels. You see, partially I am all for a new cold war. However, it would be nice if we start being clever about it on how we start this and not give away the cheese on these levels of ‘silliness’. The statement by Annemieke Vermeer-Kunzki is acceptable. She stated that ‘the Dutch are likely wrong’. She is holding out for space as she might not have all the facts. There are of course issues if the children were clearly in danger. I am not claiming that fact to be true or false, I just do not have viable data on that claim.

What is, however really clear, is that this circus, which started on Saturday, is only now getting into the visible light of newscasting. So interesting to see how this evolves, especially as news agencies, who are always claiming ‘the people have a right to know‘ seem to remain to be in the dark on these events? I reckon that at present it sucks to be a minister (one of the three mentioned that is).

There are more considerations. No matter how right or how wrong, President Putin will not take kindly to this. The Russian Diplomatic Corps is his shiny horse and officials messing with this will get the wrong side of the lime light. It will be interesting to see what Director Bartholee of the AIVD (Dutch version of MI-5) will do. No matter how morally right the policemen might have been, they might be in hot waters in more than one way. The response on NOS news by Foreign office minister Timmermans is also out of bounds (to some extent). It is nice to ‘await the report‘, however when this information is released three days after the event, then it is time to ask questions in these matters, especially with such an international event. In addition, the NOS was really not that active in asking the ministers involved the questions that needed to be asked, especially when most of the ‘news’ is about budget meetings that are not moving forward (about that part more in my next blog).

We will see this unfold, yet the lack of visibility whilst CNN reports on a couple who survives a near-fatal hike, how BBC world release information on 4 Spanish members released in Mexico. It seems to me that there was nothing on this event on any of those stations. Even Sky News seemed to have nothing, just that a ‘New Dreamliner is on its way‘. In a time when our privacies seem to be blowing in the wind, as we see a headline like ‘Regulation will be imposed on press as politicians reject self-regulation’, where the quote “Tom Harris, a former minister, warns on Wednesday that his party is undermining freedom.” and at the same time, those Journalists do not act on a story of diplomatic trespass gives more than one indication that the PRESS seems to have lost view on the things that should matter.

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October 4, 2013 · 00:26

Glowing in the Dark

OK, for now enough of economies who are on their last legs. It is time to take a look at something completely different. Whenever I see any news on nuclear reactors, my first thought is on an old sketch by Benny Hill. “Would you like to see your children to glow in the dark? Feed them Windscale porridge!” I thought it was hilarious. Of course, as I was still growing up in the Netherlands, I did understand the nuclear reactor part, but what I did not know was that the joke was linked to the “Windscale accident, accident in 1957 at the Windscale nuclear reactor facility and plutonium-production plant in the county of Cumberland (now part of Cumbria), in north-western England, that was the United Kingdom’s most serious nuclear power accident.” (Source: Britannica).

But issues at present are not that funny. Less than 24 hours ago another leak was spotted at TEPCO’s famous new place called Fukushima. (At http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/japan-fukushima-water-idUSL4N0HT0BW20131003) Quoting Reuters, we get the following facts: “Leak probably flowed into Pacific after worker misjudged tank capacity” and “Tepco’s efforts to improve water handling not sufficient, govt says“. Really? The word ‘Misjudge‘ is used?

In addition there are these two quotes. “Tepco has been relying on hastily built tanks to hold excess cooling water flushed over damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi site” and “Tepco said the water that leaked contained 200,000 becquerels per litre of beta-emitting radioactive isotopes, including strontium 90. The legal limit for strontium 90 is 30 becquerels per litre.”

Fortunately, I am a technologist and not an economist. Yet, when we judge the news article Reuters comes with, which was DEVOID of the name of whoever wrote it, then I have two issues.

1. Was TEPCO actually this stupid? (Until later in the article I was not completely convinced that this was the case).

2. The Reuters article contains ‘misjudge’, ‘hastily build tanks’ and ‘strontium-90’, I want to see a clear identity on the source. The partially implied information that the ocean is receiving 6666 times the acceptable dose of radiation is leaving me with too many questions. The article ‘implies’ I said, because the wording leaves in the middle what the exact radiation source is. In addition, the fact that they are relying on hastily build tanks 2.5 years after the event is not just unacceptable, in my eyes the non-acting by the Japanese government needs to be questioned on EVERY news station on this planet. Just in case Tim Burton was right, we need to transmit that newscast to Mars too! (Before it attacks)

I know it is ‘only’ a day old and covering bickering US politicians seems a lot more sexy then radiation leaks, the fact that both ‘event‘ and ‘news covering‘ is a little out of whack, the leak should get the spotlight it deserves.

Why is this an issue? Well, in 1945 the Japanese population was set at 71,000,000. After the bombs there, Japan had massive issues, especially food shortages (not sure how much was due to radiation). Now consider that Japan consists of 121 million people. Even though Fukushima in one place, it dumped radiation into the ocean and it seems there is nowhere near the needed levels of control in play to prevent long term damage to fishing waters.

TEPCO does not seem to have its game face on and Reuters implies that it will not change for the better any day soon. As soon as the government walks in, the TEPCO execs will clamp up and the Japanese people will not receive the answers they are entitled to. The implication from Reuters that hastily build tanks were never improved upon within 3 years, so this implies that the problems the Japanese face are long term and might include long term health issues.

What is so upsetting?

In my mind I see a few. First the fact that places like TEPCO did not learn anything from Tsernobyl. Even though nature was the reason for what happened in Fukushima and the damage to any solution due to the tsunami is not their fault, but when I see that people ‘misjudge’, that hastily build tanks were not replaced within mere weeks by a less hastily solution gives me the shivers. If we look at TEPCO’s 1st Qtr. earnings for 2013 (at http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/corpinfo/ir/tool/presen/pdf/130731_1-e.pdf)

We see a consolidated ‘Net income’ of almost 4.5 billion dollar, so the ‘hastily build’ tanks are no way an acceptable excuse.

Now, we must realise that the Reuters source is not known and no way to check who wrote this, but either it was written by someone now in his/her last week of journalism EVER! Or, the TEPCO board of directors need to be openly arrested and get immediately placed in front of the honourable Hironobu Takesaki, Chief justice of the Supreme Court of Japan, with every Japanese TV news camera in that same court. I would like to see the faces as they answer in regards to those hastily build tanks, misjudgement and still report a 4.5 billion dollar net income.

I could accept issues when the net income was ‘ZERO’. I would understand that they are facing a disaster due to natural causes. I would understand that they got financial support from the government in such events. I do not understand the combination of 4.5 billion and utterly lacking acts!

Perhaps it is just me!

The engineer in me understands the nightmare that these engineers face today. The impossible conditions, the lacking resources and no clear solution. But these lack of results in 2+ years draw all kinds of questions, many of them not very positive.

This is not about Japanese worker ethics; this is not about the size of the challenge. It is that the combination and the time passed give nowhere near the lack of results. I do not envy them and no matter what will be done, it will be an expensive and time consuming endeavour. Whether they look at a Dutch water dike system to insulate the area, place 2-3 tankers next to these hastily build tanks to collect water, whether they freeze it all solid with liquid nitrogen. Something else needs to be done.

Last week Bloomberg had a much better article. (At http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-25/russia-offers-to-help-clean-up-fukushima-as-tepco-calls-for-help.html)

“‘It was clear for a long time that TEPCO was not adequately coping with the situation’, Asmolov said. ‘It looks like TEPCO management were the last to realize this,’ he said. ‘Japan has the technologies to do this, but they lacked a system to deal with this kind of situation’.”

It seems that the implied blame towards TEPCO sounds more justified then I thought, and in this case Vladimir Asmolov is the man who runs the state owned Russian Nuclear Utility. So the man would know his non-glow in the dark solutions.

What the article shows is the one part that many might not know “Russia repeated an offer first made two years ago to help Japan clean up its accident-ravaged Fukushima nuclear station, welcoming Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s decision to seek outside help. ” So Russia was there to help, but (and I am assuming here), TEPCO had a pride issue for 2 years? I get that they will weigh it all for the first few days, even the first month, but the first 29 months? I reckon it is time to ask questions.

No matter how I feel, I do wonder how members of the board of TEPCO can get home safely every night from  Chiyoda, Tokyo, Japan to wherever they live, having to get past 9 million Tokyo residents and many of them with likely not that great an appreciation of these board members as they have to live with the consequences of that glow in the dark mess.

Perhaps we will see a new Sketch in Japan soon:
あなたは暗闇の中で輝きたいのですか？福島フィッシュ
Do you want to glow in the dark? Fukushima Fish. (Via Google Translate)

 

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October 3, 2013 · 21:50

The numbers we ignore?

Today is another day that the US government is in shutdown mode. This is not Episode 8 from season 5 of the West Wing by Aaron Sorkin (brilliant man). This is reality!

There is polarisation on many levels and even though we want to blame one side as we stand on the other side, there is a deadly reality playing out in the corridors of power. The Democrats refuse to cut their spending; the Republicans will not play soft or compromising. Today we see the Guardian with “Obama meets bank chiefs as economists warn of ‘deep and dark recession’” at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/02/obama-bank-chiefs-economist-deep-recession. As we look at a few facts quoted “President Obama met bank executives including Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein“. The firm that helped many lose their house. I admit that this is unfair towards Mr Lloyd Blankfein, but the sentiment behind it stays in valid form (I will get to that later on).

“A looming battle over the nation’s $16.7tn debt ceiling. Treasury secretary Jack Lew has warned that the US could default on its debts if the limit is not raised soon.”

The second part is why the republicans are not budging. The Democrats are raising and spending and leaving it all to the next one in office. There is enough evidence to state that it is likely that the Republicans will return to the White house. In that regard, they have ZERO interest in cleaning up the Democrat mess, which will take several administrations. The fact, that the Democrats are not willing to cut their spending, whilst they spend a lot more than their budget allows. It is almost hilarious how things are spun. They claim it is all about affordable healthcare, whilst this option is increasing the debt by $100 billion a year. Now, it there was money coming in on the other side, there might be some level of case, but that is not happening. This current administration has added over 5 trillion dollars in debt during his first term. That is an overspending by 3.4 billion dollars a day. With Obama care this will be even more. Now, this administration inherited a sour deal. The economy had collapsed; there were issues with some financial crash in Wall Street and so on. Yet, the debt he has added to in one term is a lot more than Bush added in two terms. (So both sides have some of the blame). The republicans are not blameless, but they will not accept the continued addition of debt which is currently getting pushed. The US national debt is now well over 100% of its GDP. This is the part many seem to ignore. So if all taxation (which is only 26.9% of the GDP) is used to pay for the loan, then it will take 4 years to get rid of their debt. That works ONLY if the US government pays no wages, fixes nothing, builds nothing, buys nothing and heals no one. So for 4 years Americans must make due with nothing at all. This is not a realistic approach, I admit that! So you can only use to pay what you have left, however the government has been spending 120%-145% of the money they received and with Obama Care spending will increase. America is currently, in my humble opinion bankrupt!

Do you doubt this? This would be a fair enough position to take, consider any company being allowed to spend 120% of their annual revenue. How long until any bank will close the tap? In addition, there should be overall outrage that a company would work 100% of the time just to pay the bank. There is 0% job security in that regard, for if the annual +5%-+15% cannot be made, they will cut the costs that are not desired. In that scenario there will be no healthcare of any kind, because the sick do not contribute to the future of profit. That dangerous situation currently exists!

The article by the Guardian has more “But he warned that would be nothing compared to the Pandora’s box that would be opened if no deal on the debt ceiling was done before 17 October deadline. Congress must agree to raise the US’s $16.7tn debt ceiling by that date or risk being unable to meet its obligations.”

That is the crux! The total debt will increase and the republicans will not stand for that. My earlier comparison to get rid of the debt in 4 years is not realistic, I said that. Only if spending is lower than American income can the debt be lowered. It will take more than 3 generations to get that done. Some disagreed with that number. This is fair enough. Yet, let us make a small calculation.

$17T is $17,000B. The interest due would be $340B (it is actually higher at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm, but it is about the example).

If we believe the census (as shown in my Blog ‘Biased Journalism on USA shutdown?‘) then the interest due is 13% of ALL collected taxation. How can ANYTHING get done after the interest is paid? And that is only interest, no decrease of the actual loan. So consider that all amenities, support and expenditure of the US must decrease by at least 16% to get this done. How can that ever be a realistic situation? This is why the Republicans are not budging. The more important issue is that the Democrats knew this. They knew that the train would stop and they ignored this. Not unlike in the Netherlands where everyone stated that the SNS Bank was too big to fail, the Dutch government nationalised the bank. Why the Dutch as an example? Well, they are in some similar predicament. They are not able to lower spending. They need to cut an additional 6 billion whilst their GDP was 700 billion last year. If they cannot cut 1%, how will the US ever deal with their debt? There have been words on corporate taxation left right and centre, yet what they are not mentioning is the issue that the UK has seen this year. Big business, like Google has been pushing their own booked revenue to other places. This quote from Bloomberg “Google’s chairman says he is ‘proud’ of the way his company avoids paying taxes ”It’s called capitalism,” Eric Schmidt told Bloomberg in a…” So, whatever money the US treasury has coming in, it is not from the big boys of business. They have the right accountants and tax lawyers. So here we get back to Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein.

When we see the acts of Google and how Goldman Sachs was involved in the Greek issues, people would wonder whether they (Goldman Sachs and the US government) are not working together in the same way. If so, then there are more questions on the entire setting of the article the Guardian published (from the link at the beginning). There is no way that someone like Mr Blankfein is not aware what the big boys of industry in America are doing. When we read in places like Forbes that Google is not alone in these acts, but that companies like Apple are doing the same thing, then raising a debt ceiling whilst the captains of industry are not paying anywhere near the tax they ‘should’ then we must ask other questions. All this becomes even more hilarious when we consider the information from the Financial Standard on July 15th (at http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/33335431) where it is stated that “US delays tax avoidance law by 6 months“. So the big boys in that initial Guardian Article are all about gloom and doom, whilst the US treasury seems to be missing out on taxation by not acting on Tax evasion (which is actually not a crime at present). So they want to borrow more, but will not put in place legislation that would lessen the dangers of paying the due interest. That last part is shown in Forbes article last month by Steve Denning. (At http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2013/09/12/alan-blinder-six-reasons-why-another-financial-crisis-is-still-inevitable/)

  1. Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 hasn’t been implemented.
  2. The $5 trillion banking assets in derivatives are still off-balance sheet and unregulated
  3. The rating agencies are “still hired and paid by the very companies whose securities they rate.”
  4. The Volcker Rule forbidding proprietary trading by banks has not been implementedAnd I add;
  5. US tax avoidance laws not implemented.

From these parts we could come to the conclusion that the Obama administration has failed the American people almost completely, whilst unable to get spending under control.

American politics is a lot more complex, so there are other factors, but it seems to me that Steve Denning is showing us several dangers that are currently not stopped. So when, not if, they happen, the people as they walk away with nothing left, can wonder how that expensive affordable healthcare is helping whilst they have no house, no job and no food.

It is a sad day for many people, because in the end, not only America seems to be unable to control their budgets, they are only, for now the most visible one.

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October 2, 2013 · 12:31

About the Miliband Family

This morning as conservative, in opposition of the current Labour ideal I see no other option but to stand next to Ed Miliband as a son of a father, to stand behind him in support and stand in front of him as a shield in regards to this attack. What I just read on the internet, after seeing the news on Sky News is just too disgusting. I personally will never have too much respect for the daily mail and the assault on a person who has already passed away, just to get to someone else. Ralph Miliband, a person who served for his new country against Nazi Germany, who stood there, serving and fighting to keep the British Empire save is just unacceptable. Why? Because he believed that Marxism had the answers? Of course we cannot rely on the Daily Mail to know all this, as I reckon their viewpoint comes from a day and age when the Black and White TV was no longer there, a post radio tube era! Why is this important?

Well, many in England had not lived through those early years. In Belgium and the Netherlands in the years post WW1 life was hard. Workers in those days were there to work themselves to death for a chosen few, who would exploit people again and again. The sad part is that current events are bringing this age back and it does not scare enough people (I will get to that evidence soon enough).

The years in the Netherlands and Belgium between WW1 and WW2 were hard ones (not just there mind you). Books like ‘op hoop van zegen‘ ([translation] ‘Trusting our fate in the hands of god‘) by Dutch writer Herman Heijerman shows the exploitation of Dutch fishermen as they are forced into the sea in unsound ships. In the end people die and the owner would pocket the insurance money. It was Herman Heijerman’s socialist view on the capitalist system. For those not having faith in these issues, remember 2008, whilst the bulk of the western world is still reeling from that ‘Wall Street cabaret‘. The Dutch also had events post WW1 in the east of their nation in an area called Twente, where the Textile industry collapsed as it was confronted with the competitive practices from Japan. Belgium had its own issues and in those times Adolf Hitler came to power and soon after started his European tour (1939-1945). So Ralph Miliband, this Jewish sociologist was lucky enough to flee the horror that would hit Belgium and went to England. To be quite honest, at times it is unfathomable that Marxism did not grow as strong as it could. When the bulk of a nation lives in absolute poverty in the service of a small group of silver spoon people, that consequence would today seem like a given reality.

So, Ed’s dad, Mr. Miliband, a person with Marxist convictions ended up in England and served with the British Navy against Hitler. Whether he was there to protect England, or to fight Hitler, or even both does not matter. In the end he served like so many others and ended up as a CPO (chief Petty Officer).

After that he became an academic. He did not become an anarchist, a terrorist or an anti-social. No, he became an academic and a sociologist. It was all in a time before I was born (such is life). So the paper that attacked the Miliband family was actually (at some point) sympathetic to Oswald Mosely and the British Union of Fascists. Interesting isn’t it? Their ‘Hurrah for the Blackshirts‘ didn’t last long and in that regards it is important to read the ‘Greenslade Blog‘ in the guardian, specifically, the one that was written in December 2011. (At http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2011/dec/06/dailymail-oswald-mosley). It is an excellent read, showing in addition that the Daily Mail was not the only player in town. The Daily Mirror was on that same horse (that strange Mr Daily and his newspapers, right?) The evidence is clear that both had changed their tune before WW2. What does remain that Mr Miliband’s view was shaped by harsh events in Belgium. The Netherlands had its own ghosts. In Amsterdam in 1934 there would be a workers revolt and in the end under Dutch PM Hendrik Colijn, a harsh response was given against the revolt and in the end the police and military would shoot into the crowd. 5 people died. This event is talked about in a book by Harry Mulisch (the Assault). The son of a NSB agent in that book states ‘My father was ordered to shoot into the crowd of workers. He would never allow for that again.‘ With that he explains his father’s move to National Socialism. The NSB were not the good guys, but the sentiment voiced in several in these books reflect the sign of the times in both the Netherlands and Belgium. I believe that Marxism grew in that same environment, in an age of much injustice and imbalance. So when Mr Miliband escaped that environment, is it a wonder that he would favour the far left, Marxism and/or Socialism? His view as an academic should not be attacked. They should be heralded. He voiced certain views and let us ponder those views. I see that this approach shaped his son Ed Miliband and his son saw the wisdom for what it was and ended up a lot more towards the centre of the left wing. The generation that followed Ed’s dad is like I was, we believe that the wisdom is more to the balanced centre. Me to the right of it and Ed Miliband to the left of it, together the system will remain in balance (as long as we can keep UKIP out of that equation for now). I spoke earlier about returning times. We see now that the retirement age will shift. Meeting financial ends is getting harder and harder. Companies in the Netherlands are now advocating reduction in pay and overall working conditions will hit hard times for years to come. Labour has always fought this (not always in the right way). But I believe with utter conviction that opposition politics is the only way to keep things for the most honest and fair.

So as we end this small piece with a few additional thoughts and a request. The fact that Ed’s dad fought for England is a fact. He must have been good as he ended his service as a CPO, not a rank easily achieved. He ended up with a degree from the London School of economics and even though he was not a conservative, he was a devoted academic. He put his words to books and got 7 of them published. So a man of thought, whether we agree with them or not, they are regarded as distinguished works. If wisdom comes from the past, then the Miliband family contributed to the British Empire (I love the old names), something that a person hating that nation would never do. Finally, there is a book ‘Newman, Michael (2002). Ralph Miliband and the Politics of the New Left.‘ there is a little more at http://monthlyreview.org/press/books/pb0866/ it shows from other sources that the Miliband family contributed to the evolving English way of life. Books that end up on the shelves, unlike the daily Mail that ends up at the bottom of a budgie cage the day after if it is lucky.

Now for the small request to you the reader. Some will agree with the Leveson report (I do), some do not. I believe the article about Mr Miliband to be in really bad taste. This was not about ‘the right to know‘, I see this for what it was, a personal attack on the son of a deceased academic, who is patriotic and who cares about England. In my personal mind, on the wrong side of the isle ;-), but we can’t have it all, can we?

So, if you agree that the attack on someone’s dad, who had already passed away and has no defence against what is being done to him, then this coming Saturday, please DO NOT buy the Daily mail. Buy any other newspaper.  The Guardian, the times, or whatever paper you buy. Let us all send a message to the Daily Mail editorial that some things are just not cricket!

Have a lovely day all!

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October 1, 2013 · 16:46

Biased Journalism on USA shutdown?

We have seen reports of all forms. We see information management in what I have called bad news managing. This has happened in the Netherlands. Is it Biased Journalism, or is this journalism based upon the information handed to them?

The second part would be fair enough, because the journalist is dealing with what is handed to them. However, when we look at the canons of Journalism and their codes of ethics some questions come to the front of the lines. Truthfulness, accuracy, objectivity are three of the elements and there are more than just these three. I am not willing to attack truthfulness. It is in my view an empty gesture to do so. This is all based upon information that the Journalist gets handed. Accuracy might be an issue. They might have passed on the exact information they were handed, yet how accurate was it? Was the information tested in any way? Then there is objectivity. I am not sure if that is a valid point. Let us face the fact that objectivity is in the eyes of the beholder and as such there is more than one viewpoint. In all honesty, any article would need to be viewed from more than one side and the news as we usually watch it on TV is actually not that equipped to do just that. Newspapers are!

I have illustrated in earlier blogs that some of the mentioned information seemed inaccurate to me. This happens, I do not claim to be correct, but it seemed too upbeat to me and as such I questioned it. I was not alone, but not too many public contributors were, and in more than one occasion my view was the correct one. So when I saw the NOS news today, more questions rose in my mind and it is time to ask a few more and some other questions.

The most questionable part was the news on the US Shutdown as that danger approaches within the next 24 hours. What I saw as an issue was the way some parties were illustrated. First of all, it is important to know that I am leaning strongly towards the republican view. Not stating so beforehand would be wrong in my mind. The issue I had was with the NOS newscast of the US shutdown. It was not incorrect, but there were issues that have not been mentioned, which were at the centre of it all.

I see this all as the republican move to stop the abundant of irresponsible spending by a democratic party run government. Yes, we know that this is not about the fiscal cliff this time, but the government budget is directly linked to this. The democrats have taken the debt out of acceptable proportions.

Let us not forget that the US has a 17,000 BILLION dollar debt, this comes down to 340 billion dollars per state. In addition, if we look back to the Californian change in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor, former governor Gray Davis was confronted with a recall because the state shortfall was only 10% of the 340 Billion. That was directly due to the dot com boom collapse and a large group of companies were suddenly in a position no longer able to pay taxation, which meant that California, one of the richest states was suddenly without cash. Now the simple logic that follows, if one of the richest states cannot pay 10% of the outstanding debt, how can the others pay at all? This is the big cake that gets layers after layer of icing. With each layer it is presented as something that can be dealt with, but both democrat and republicans have no real solution. This is at the core of it all. So it is not just about the government budget, it is the issue that the budget is not realistic and that it is only adding to the debt. So when I see the part where Democrat Nita Lowey is talking about a compromise, then I end up splitting my guts with laughter. For two administrations there has not been any decent level of compromise. The republican view is that spending MUST go down by a lot. We could view the state by state comparison, especially against the Netherlands. Most states are larger than the Netherlands and none have a realistic approach to dealing with a 340 billion dollar debt. Now compare that to the Netherlands having to cut 6 billion and the view is almost complete. We all have to tighten the belt and within the USA this would last for no less three generations. The view I am proclaiming to be correct does have issues as well. It is however the view I behold. After Detroit, which already has gone bust, almost two dozen cities are facing the same problem in the US. Fresno, Compton and Oakland are three of them and they are all in California (one of the three rich states). If we would take a deeper look at the 50+ largest cities, then we see healthcare and retirement cost issues that make Detroit look like a joke. It is the healthcare part that is at the centre of it all. The Republicans are utterly convinced that Obama Care will not solve it at all. It will just add to the massive debts. What has been propagated as a solution to all, is in the realistic view of many a non-solution that will push forward debts and invoices that cannot be paid for in the end and as such people will face even more hardship down the line. Not to mention the fact that healthcare professionals might end up seeking greener pastures outside of the US.

The budget shortage is not new. This has been going on since 1995 (at least), however, in those days former president Clinton had two advantages. The first was that the government coffers had a cash surplus. Second was that the dot com boom was going nice. Consultancy firms were going strong, the incomes were really nice and consultants were making loads of cash by selling concepts. So, people were buying ideas and not an existing product. No matter what the reason was (like 9/11), it was the spending that the Bush administration started which gave the treasury such a negative jolt. It was nowhere near the spending that President Obama did, but he did not start this, so let us be fair about it. Against the current administration it must be stated that the no true legislation has been passed stopping Wall street the way it should, so there is no evidence that this will not happen again. And we are all aware that the economic thrashing started all with the Wall Street Clam bake ‘lets go hedge funds’ that was a huge part of the predicament we have now.

The question from the NOS ‘Is there no talking with the Republicans?‘ is not the only question and the one sided part of it is not correct. The linked question is ‘Can US overspending not be contained?‘ is the side the Republicans are dealing with. That part does not seem to be addressed by anyone. We see that side when we look at all the other places, including the Netherlands, the UK and Australia. They all have their own budget ghosts to deal with.

The Dutch government has its own cross to bear trying to find solutions to a 6 billion cutting spree. Too much talking and for too long no results. If we take all these sides (in all the talked about nations), then perhaps another method should be found. The first part is to cut ALL political incomes by 20% and no overtime payment at all (not sure if they get that to begin with). That should make a decent cut in the cost to the national treasuries and might make for quicker decisions. In my view I see no solution in any way to lower taxation. I think that this approach is an unrealistic one. What might be a solution is to change it all to a two tiered tax system with only 27% and 39%. That might work, but only if ALL tax deductibility’s are removed. This has two benefits. The system becomes simpler, and over all, with no deductibility’s left it becomes a clear approach. In addition there is a need to make all commerce taxable at the point of sale (the location of the purchaser’s keyboard). This must be where the buyer physically is. This is to take a stance on that Google, Amazon, et al approach, where on-line companies seem to be selling it all from an empty office in Ireland at taxation levels which should be regarded as a joke.

The system has to be changed. We have heard so many voices that a solution can be made, whilst ZERO results have been achieved for close to a decade. When we see administrations of entire cities go bust, it is time to just end whining about a solution that remains no more than a concept.

By the way, when we look at spending it all, what has been the end result? The fact that the US, the bulk of the Commonwealth and the Netherlands are spending way too much (compared to what is coming in though taxation) is out of proportions. That is why the republicans are putting their foot down and so far there is no evidence that they are holding the wrong position.

What is the right position? That is the question and I do not know whether the Republican position will be the correct one either. Yet, staying with the Democratic view whilst we have almost a decade of evidence that it is not working seems to be a flawed point of view. That view is reinforced by the Heritage foundation where it was quoted “While federal revenues are recovering from the recent recession, spending is growing sharply, resulting in four consecutive years of deficits exceeding $1 trillion.”

So the US government has been spending more than a trillion more then it received. Consider that in 2011 the total revenue was set at 2.3 trillion, spending 43% more then you get each year is not a good idea. Consider that the recession is not done by a long-shot; overspending 40% annually will have long term consequences.

If we accept that a government is not a profit based organisation then we could consider that a government would collect taxation at 105%-110% of what it needs. When you spend money and then only collect 71% you are going to need guarantees that things will go wrong. So when I stated that it will take 3 generations to get rid of the debt I was not kidding. In addition, the 17 trillion was just the national debt. The total debt is set at 60 trillion (roughly). This means that every state in the US would have to come up with 1.2 trillion dollars to deal with it. (I know it is not fair, but I need to show an example).

If we consider the three richest states and considering the 2012 numbers (from http://www.census.gov/govs/statetax) we see the following:

The collected taxation from California was 112.3, New York 71.5 and Texas 48.5, all in billions of dollars. So whether we use either the 340 billion or the larger 1.2 trillion, only 3 of the 50 states have any chance of paying it to any effect. Viewing these numbers, do the math and we see that things must change (by a lot). The Heritage foundation is also showing that current entitlements are double the defence budget. How does this relate to Obama care? Will the info they state gives us that the additional costs by 2019 which was set at 100 billion, which is a little over 12% of all collected annual taxes. So, another 100 billion needed whilst there is no income against that. The slide states “Obama care imposes numerous tax hikes which total more than $500 billion over 10 years. Obama care’s higher tax rates on income and investment will slow economic growth, leaving hardworking American families and businesses worse off.”

These are the issues that the republicans are fighting. We have seen enough ‘evidence’ to know that most economic recovery for Europe will not commence until 2015. So, as the GOP (Republican Party) is watching these developments, whilst they are watching the additional entitlement costs go up even further, costs, which are pushing their sense of humour all the way to the basement of Congress. This means that there are additional issues stopping the America from regaining its status of ‘economic superpower’. So these are some of the elements that are not too ‘illuminated’ as the US government squabble goes on. The only bonus I see at present, is that when the government shuts down, they should consider not paying any of the elected Democrats and Republicans for these days either. It might at least save the treasury a few dollars.

 

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