Tag Archives: Iran

March 6, 2026 · 14:25

Dangerous Speculation

This article is almost pure speculation. The people said what they did, as they always do, but the dots are connected differently. So as some dots will connect to a degree to one, there is nothing to stop anyone from connect the dots until they see a dragon, so beware. In the first, I have nearly always said that the United States of America was pretty much broke. The problem is that some connect the term ‘pretty much’ to a term thinking it can better that beast, but that is nearly always folly (court jester folly). So when we see that David Kelly gave us that the country is “going broke slowly.” No one really doubted this because going slowly can be almost any timeline. At present, the debt is 38.8 trillion. Then we get three quotes that kinda connect. The first one is “Trump is lying. I serve on the intelligence and armed services committees. There’s no intelligence that Iran posed an imminent threat to the U.S. or the American people” This allegedly comes from congressman Jason Crow. I cannot say for certain that he actually said that, so be aware and I use it, because it fits a picture, let’s say it is one of the dots. Then we get Anne Applebaum saying: “He does lie all of the time. And I find it fascinating (and sick) that he lies even “when he doesn’t need to”” Too many people and fat checks give her setting a thumbs up, but is it really connected? That becomes the question. The third statement comes from Bernie Sanders. He stated “Trump said we had to attack Iran because we can’t allow it ‘to have a nuclear weapon.’ Really? This is the same president who, in June, said: “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been obliterated.’ Vietnam. Iraq. Iran. Another lie. Another war.!” We saw the comments. We saw the outbursts and we saw the stage, Now, I am not saying that Iran is an innocent victim, there is enough to thwart that suggestion. Yet I have always accepted that if you do the right thing for the wrong reason that action becomes the debilitating act of corruption that we all face. I get a different picture. Americas is now (almost) broke, it will have to get its fingers on oil. Canada wasn’t giving up theirs, Europeans and Canadians were blocking America from getting its fingers on the spoils of Greenland and the oil from Venezuela is in the short term useless. So what remains? It is simple Russia and Iran, Iran is ‘relatively’ easy and Israel was able to help because Iran was a clear and present danger to the state of Israel. And now President Trump will accept someone ‘acceptable’ to the United States of America, as this person will allow America to drain the oil from Iran and the son of Ali Khamenei will never suffice. Trump says he wants to be involved in picking Iran’s next leader, and that is the leader that will allow America to drain its resources (at $0.10 per barrel) America is that desperate now (as I personally see it).

It has now and lately always been about the resources. America is as I see it, broke. And that is not a story any President is willing to tell its people, this is what you get when you cannot control Wall Street or the greed of people. And Iran is now paying that price. For the USA, the fact that Iran fired its missiles every where works, because as I see it, Iran isolated themselves perfectly , which works for President Trump, an isolated enemy has no friends to fall back onto and Russia cannot intervene, it has blocked itself and China doesn’t want to get into the middle of this. I reckon that on the side the fact that America is in this predicament works for the long game they have running, because President Trump exposed its weakness. They merely have to make sure that too much of that oil gives nowhere and China will come out victorious.

So is my setting that of the conspiracy theorist? Some say that the dots connected to a unicorn, not the realism that it was an anorexic rhino. When are dots dangerous? Well in the first is comes in waves and it often comes to images that aren’t anything. As such am I right (to a degree) or is the image too distorted due to sources? I let you decide that, but I gave at the beginning that there is a chance that I am writing an article “is almost pure speculation” so be weary of what you accept, even if the sources are spot on. It is one of the dangers of unrelated quotes. 

Have a great day. I am sad as my TV will take almost a week to arrive, no movies, no PS5. My life sucks (at present).

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March 4, 2026 · 12:42

Can we say Ole?

This is a setting that remains to be seen. Not from my side. I am fine with it and there are a few reasons for that. But it all started with a few news casts were we see (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/spain-baulks-at-trumps-threat-to-cut-off-all-trade-over-nato-iran-stance) the Al Jazeera setting. The title ‘Spain baulks at Trump’s threat to cut off all trade over NATO, Iran stance’ and it comes with “Spain has said the US should be mindful of international law and bilateral trade agreements with the European Union, after US President Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with the country for refusing to let the US military use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran.” And it is a simple setting and in this I stand with Spain. No formal declaration of war exists between a NATO ally (or NATO) and Iran as such there are issues with international law and simply put, it makes the United States of America the aggressor (together with Israel). I am not against these hits, but that is me, a person, an individual that does not matter, an individual that has no bearing on international law. So for the Bully named Shit (or was it bullshit named something) to set the premise of what some describe as “US President Donald Trump has threatened to cut trade with Spain over the ban on using their military bases during the Iran war.” And this act will bite back. Of that I have no doubt. You see America was never directly attacked, this is the ‘benefit’ of a proxy war. Don’t get me wrong. What was done had to be done and it had to be done a lot sooner than now. We might notice it not that Iran is attacking Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all in one setting. But it started that the United States and Israel decided to preemptively strike against Iran. There was never a formal declaration of war, as such there are all kinds of labels we can throw at this, but in international law the NATO partners are playing a dangerous game. Iran now has (to some extent) international law in its side. And bullying Spain with trade sanctions because Spain will not allow attacks on Iran from base activity in Spain is understandable. Al Jazeera also gives us “On Tuesday, before a meeting with German Chancellor Frederich Merz, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office in Washington, DC, that “Spain has been terrible” for not allowing the US to use its bases. He said that he had told his secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, to “cut off all dealings” with Spain. “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain,” the US president said.” It seems nice, but President Trump might want to talk to congress, he avoided them in the past and now that he is attacking Iran without a formal declaration of war there might be legal sides to all this. As such, how are the facilities in Germany used? Can we get a run down on them? What about the logistical sides? What is run from Italy or the UK? What are the settings there? I got word that the UK is allowing the attacks on Iran, but hat about the other bases? There is no clear indications of who is allowed and who is not. It seems like merely Spain does not and I see their problem. There is no declaration of war, USA is merely bombing Iran. And what evidence is there? We are merely given ““It was my opinion that they were going to attack first,” the president said. And with that, the botched rollout of the Trump administration’s case for war enters yet another chapter.” What evidence is there? Iran attacked with “The UAE’s ministry of defence said that 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones had been launched from Iran towards the country so far. Three people have been killed and 58 injured, the authorities said.” (Source: the independent) Between Iran and the UAE is a little river called the Persian golf (I believe that is Iranian propaganda, I personally believe the its real name is the straight of Dammam), so if you consider this, how successful would any attack on the USA be? I get that Israel would strike against Iran and the need to strike Iran is there, but the United States of America should have given a declaration of war with the approval of Congress. As stated (in senate.gov) we see “The Constitution grants Congress the sole power to declare war. Congress has declared war on 11 occasions, including its first declaration of war with Great Britain in 1812. Congress approved its last formal declaration of war during World War II. Since that time it has agreed to resolutions authorizing the use of military force and continues to shape U.S. military policy through appropriations and oversight.” As far asI can see, President Trump did not do this and did not let Congress proclaim a war. Now they are in it and likely it comes now, but that also gives other players a disastrous setting on international law as after all what Iran has done, there is every chance that the United States of America is seen as the aggressor in this. So what was this about? Iranian oil? Your guess is as good as mine, because things were done out of synch as the IT term goes. 

So, is ‘Ole’ the proper term here? If so, it will be up to Spain to shout that word but the setting is a lot more complex that most of us can see and as I see it Saudi Arabia has a first strike option as it has under proxy war attack by Iran for at least two years now by Houthi terrorists (using Iranian equipment to attack Saudi Arabia). 

So what comes next? That is the question, but this setting has every chance of escalating at present. The question becomes how many attacks will Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar endure over the next week. We will see what comes next and I do not think we have to wait long.

Have a great (and peaceful) day.

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March 3, 2026 · 16:39

Glow in the dark today

Yup, glow in the dark today, so you can have a safe tomorrow. It’s not the Windscale advertisement, but Europe is coming to the conclusion that there is no longer a United States of America. And Al Jazeera is letting us know that there is a new setting in town. The article (at https://aje.news/wza18x) is letting us know that ‘France to increase nuclear warheads, lend nuclear aircraft to Europe allies’ where we see “French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that France will increase the number of its nuclear warheads and allow the temporary deployment of its nuclear-armed aircraft to eight European countries to bolster the security of the continent. His speech at France’s Ile Longue nuclear submarine base on Monday introduced the idea of “advanced deterrence”, a deeper, structured nuclear-security relationship with key European partners that he said was distinct from but complementary to NATO’s nuclear arrangements.” As I see it, it is the “complementary to NATO’s nuclear arrangements” that matters. There is no way that they will ever get close to the 3,700 warheads that America has, but the setting is such that there is now an advanced tactical arrangements with a number of NATO lands and these extra warheads should make all the difference between an adversary seeing the difference between ‘could we’ and ‘should we’ it might be the smallest setting but for those wanting to attack Europe and NATO it means that there will be a number of additional warheads going for their terrain and a player like Russia might take notice that attacking NATO would become severely less than folly. No matter what some ‘claim’ the additional firepower will be noticed and so far Europe has never shown itself to be the aggressor. So as we are given “Macron’s speech, which was scheduled before the widening conflict in the Middle East, was aimed at quelling European security concerns amid recurring tensions with United States President Donald Trump and growing fears of Russian aggression amid Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent in the face of multiple threats, and we must consider our deterrence strategy deep within the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty,” Macron said.” President Macron is correct and as I see it, with the escalations in the Middle East with the United States, it would be presumptuous that America is not willing to tap into their nuclear arsenal for any reason and that leaves NATO with a rather nasty problem. Even as France and the UK will have enough to turn half the planet to a cinder, this is one situation that is kinda the same as sex, bigger is better and as France is adding to the equation, the bigger is better equation is filled and with the lending of the nuclear aircrafts to other nations, the short term setting for both Russia and China (not accusing either) will become more of a question mark for either. As such it seems that France is playing the ‘safe’ card for NATO and Europe. This is how I see it and I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.

And that is seen in the next paragraph where we are given “The eight European countries that have agreed to participate in Macron’s scheme include Germany, Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. They will be able to host French “strategic air forces”, which will be able to “spread out across the European continent” to “complicate the calculations of our adversaries”, he said.”  There is more, but it might be better for you to read the article. The thing of this setting is not ideal. I reckon that France was always ready to do this, but with the attacks by Iran on the whole Middle East and both Israel and the United States attacking Iran a new conflict escalation seems to exist, how far this will go is anyones guess. I reckon that the escalation that Iran called on itself over attacks on Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar has had the counter effect that a desperate Iran could have hoped for. All nations are in support in what either Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Qatar wants to call on Iran. It lost whatever support they had on the world stage and the Iranian regime has launched over 588 missiles and 893 drones at 11 countries across the Middle East. There is some damage, some lives were lost, but as I see it, less than 1% made it through and considering that a Shahed drone is around $30,000 and they fired 893 of them amount to at least $27 million, considering the damage, that was a tremendous waste of money. And the missile damage at the price it cost them to fire these missiles is even worse. What some people tend to forget, there is a limit to what they can fire before depletion sets in and there is a limit they can fire before other nations will take out whatever they thought they would ending up having (it is vague, I know). It all connects, because France is setting the larger powerplay, but Russia who was going after Ukraine now has to realise that Iran is firing whatever they wanted to get and that side is now gone. So there is a link between the two and whilst we see that Russia is staying in touch with Iran, it is likely upset about Iran using what he needed for the Ukraine. As such there is an upside to all this for the Ukraine. 

What is a larger issue is that there are messages getting out there that the Straight of Hormuz would become a problem. I actually resolved that situation in my article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) titled ‘Sinking a dilemma’, the solution isn’t immediate, but it opens up a few settings of commerce for the UAE, Iran out of the picture and additional commerce for the UAE. Should this plan go ahead, there might be some delay on this (no idea how long) but with every knee-jerk reaction from Iran that solution will increase in value (as I personally see it). You can confront an enemy, deflect an enemy or evade that enemy and that was the simple setting I used. 

So have a great day and enjoy your day on route to the upcoming weekend, which is only 80 hours away for me.

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March 2, 2026 · 18:39

As I say it is

That is the setting now, I am making assumptions and I prefer to call them prepositions. I know that I might be wrong, but in this day and age, the stories we were told bring across the pictures we are set in and today the stories come from the Khaleej Times. The first one (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-president-advisor-anwar-gargash-regional-tensions) where we see ‘‘Your war is not with neighbours’: UAE diplomat calls on Iran to act responsibly’ and I agree with Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Advisor to the UAE President. He gives us ““The Iranian aggression against the Gulf states has miscalculated and isolated Iran at a critical juncture. Your war is not with neighbours, and this escalation only confirms the narrative of those who see Iran as the primary source of danger in the region, and its missile program as a constant source of instability. “Return to reason, to your surroundings, and deal with your neighbours rationally and responsibly before the circle of isolation and escalation widens,” he added.” For part I completely agree with him, the part of me that does not is seeing the panic rising in Iran and now that Ali Khamenei has been proclaimed dead I fear that the panic will merely increase. 

So, how am I getting to the conclusion? For that we need the second article of the Khaleeh Times which we see (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/emergencies/killed-injured-uae-intercept-iranian-ballistic-missiles-drones) where we see ‘3 killed, 58 injured as UAE intercepts 165 ballistic missiles, 541 Iranian drones’ I likely could do more damage with one drone in Dubai as we see that Iran fired 165 missiles and 541 drones. The equation is severely out of balance, it feels like desperation and when a nation like Iran is desperate with the only friendly nation is likely to be Russia, as such I see that the desperation might lead the ones who are now in charge into a more desperate situation and that never ends well. 

So, we are given “Since Saturday, February 28, a total of 165 ballistic missiles launched from Iran toward the UAE have been detected. Of these, 152 were destroyed, while 13 fell into the sea. Two cruise missiles were detected and destroyed. Additionally, 541 Iranian drones were detected; 506 were intercepted and destroyed, while 35 reached UAE territory, causing material damage.” It shows me that the Iranian is massively inaccurate. You see, these nations are on par with each other Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran will have similar abilities, so to see Iran to fail to such an extent merely shows me that their abilities are failing and against both Israel and the United States they have zero chance of getting out of this. I don’t feel sorry for them, they did this to themselves, but to see a nation like Iran get lost in the weeds to this degree is more then slightly unsettling. As I said, they did this to themselves, but to see any nation to be this close to the edge of an abyss at a point whilst the other nations are seemingly unaware of how close to the edge they are is at least unsettling. 

Am I right? Am I wrong? I can leave it up to you to decide, have a great day today.

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March 1, 2026 · 22:41

Desperation is their middle name

There is  setting I was confronted with this morning. At first I wouldn’t believe it, but as the evidence came in over YouTube (via a massive amount of sources) I had to admit that Iran should now be known as the Desperate Islamic Republic of Iran. The fact that Iran is slamming Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and a few other places (also in Saudi Arabia). It shows that Iran is now desperate. Don’t get me wrong, they are also hitting US base locations, which makes sense, but the locations in the UAE in Abu Dhabi and Dubai do not (except for a Trump location hit). So the BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c204px4zddro) ‘Luxury Dubai hotel hit as Iran launches retaliatory strikes across region’ where we see “A luxury hotel in Dubai was hit as Iran launched strikes across the region in retaliation for a “massive” and ongoing attack against it by the US and Israel. Video verified by the BBC shows a fire raging at Fairmont The Palm Hotel on Saturday in the United Arab Emirates’ largest city. Thick black smoke rises into the sky.

Local officials also said four people were injured in a blaze at a building in the Palm Jumeirah area. They gave no further details.” I (to some extent) know that area and as far as I can tell there are no military targeting in, around or near the Palm Jumeirah area. This shows the desperation of Iran, like a toddler thinking that if they hit the nations around them, the others will scream at America and Israel. As I stated mere desperation. And as we are given “Iranian media earlier said that it had launched an attack on Dubai, although it is not clear what they are targeting. A British woman told the BBC that she was at the Dubai Marina, just off Jumeirah Beach, when the strikes hit on Saturday. She heard a “loud bang” and saw a “big puff of black smoke” before a “flurry of missiles were intercepted” above her for around five minutes.” To be honest, there is nothing military in Dubai to be targeting. The Port of Jebel Ali is likely to be used a a naval resupply point, but it is over 5km away from Palm Jumeirah. So this calls in the question on how accurate are these missiles to being with and the Shahed drones are ‘piloted’ which merely supports the desperation of Iran. 

So then we get to the second article, also from the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0z9012291o) there we see ‘Bowen: A dangerous moment, but US and Israel see opportunity not to be missed’ where we see “It will have become even more so after US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on day one of the US-Israeli air strikes. His death was later confirmed on Iranian state TV.” In addition we are given “Israel and the United States have calculated that the Islamic regime in Iran is vulnerable – dealing with a severe economic crisis, the fallout from the brutal crackdown on protesters at the start of the year and with defences still badly damaged by last summer’s war. Their conclusion seems to have been that this was an opportunity that should not be squandered.” All that makes sense to me and as I see the Iranian regime as utterly evil. I am not willing to give them an inch on the some bleeding heart setting, especially as they are launching drones and missiles on population area’s. Not merely American, but an Islamic nation. As I see it, all nations need to rescind their pleads for Iran. I would like to add that they targeted places in Saudi Arabia as well, but I do not know where these attacks took place at present, the News outlets were focussed on the attacks on Dubai and Doha. 

No matter how you slice it, as I see it, Iran is pretty desperate at present and it will get worse as the Islamic nations will let them rot by themselves. As far as I can see it Amy nation that was attacked with drones and missiles is not that eager to give financial support, but that might merely be me.

Have a great day

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February 20, 2026 · 10:56

The way of the dodo

Yes, that is a path that I am walking at present. You see, I am (originally) a Catholic. As such I tend to miss the Islamic markers around me. And this year I was aware of Ramadan, even though I do not practice it. So the news given by Morocco World News (at https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2026/02/279298/impossible-moon-saudi-arabia-faces-scrutiny-after-declaring-wednesday-as-1st-day-of-ramadan/) caught me unaware for two reasons. The first setting is that the accusation that Saudi Arabia made an Islamic booboo (as expressions go) is out of the realm of my conception of Islam. In this I am biased. I see Shia Islam (Iran) as evil and Sunni Islam (Saudi Arabia) as good. As such I see Islam of the UAE on the same footing as Saudi Arabia. If people want to convict me of these thoughts, that’s fair (as long as they are Muslim)

So the news given to me was ‘Impossible Moon: Saudi Arabia Faces Scrutiny After Declaring Wednesday as 1st Day of Ramadan’, I was own a different footing. I got that it was Ramadan as Google informed me it was, nothing complex about this. But then I tend to rely on Google on many matters, like the Horoscope, Chinese days and a few more like this and Ramadan fits in that setting for me. So a the News from Rabat is given to me In the form of “Another year, another controversy as experts and observers across the world are surprised and nearly shocked over Saudi Arabia’s decision to declare Wednesday as the first day of Ramadan 2026.

The Gulf country aligns with other nations in the region and beyond, who are facing scrutiny over their decision, with experts and astronomy centers stressing that the crescent moon, called the “hilal”, was impossible to sight last night.” This kinda caught me unaware. I am not a Muslim and as such I am in the dark of these matters. I for one (with my scientific mind) was thinking that as the world is almost a sphere that some will not see what some do see. So, what is visible from Mecca (or Riyadh) might be out of view for Rabat , Casablanca and a few more places. But that is thrown upside down as we are given “Critics say the declaration is against all available data contradicting declarations from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and beyond, which started fasting for Ramadan today. Astronomers had warned prior that highly unfavorable celestial conditions would make it impossible to sight the moon yesterday, February 17. Astronomy calculations suggest the moon sat before or simultaneously with the sun in most Islamic countries. This would serve as an obstacle to leave an observable crescent above the horizon, with both the moon’s age and angular separation from the sun also far below globally accepted visibility thresholds.” I am merely posting what Morocco World News is giving me, because in the first I am not Muslim, I am also neither a astronomer and I wouldn’t be able to do these calculations without an additional 4 years of University level of mathematics and calculus. So I lose out three times. And when we get to the setting of “According to Evrim Agaci, a Turkish science and education organization, the moon was supposed to disappear a mere 42 seconds ahead of the sun’s descent last night” it seems a matter of less than a minute and that is the slimmest of all astronomical settings as I personally see it. And my lack of knowledge and insight into science (as given above) I heralded with “The same source detailed how the moon will set before the sun in many cities, including in Abu Dhabi, where the moon sets one minute before sunset. “In Riyadh, it will set 37 seconds earlier,” Gulf News reported. Several other countries like Jordan, Oman, and Egypt announced Thursday as the first day of Ramadan, acknowledging the impossibility of sighting the moon. Saudi Arabia’s controversy is not limited to this single incident, especially as the Gulf country has long been treated as a reference point by many Muslim countries that model their own calendar decisions on Saudi announcements.” And my comical setting of a town proclamatory walking through Yas Mall (in Abu Dhabi), ringing a bell proclaiming ‘Ramadan has started’ brings a small grin to my mind knowing that the sin goes down a mine later and everyone can enjoy their foods until sunrise. But that is me, always trying to see the bright spot on the moon (its right between Ptolemaeus and Mare Nectaris) And yet, this article gives us another setting, one that I had no knowledge of and no expectation of. It is seen in “Observational data consistently show Morocco is among the most accurate in determining the start of lunar months, as they base their Islamic calendar on actually sighting the crescent moon with the naked eye. This approach relies on different methods, including engaging clerics, astronomers, and armed forces units in a coordinated effort.” I did not expect that to be a strength of Morocco. As such we might say ‘Calculate it again, Sam’ with a small wink at Casablanca. So even as I go the way of the Dodo, I do see that we are all fallible and we all come to conclusions. I am not judging Saudi Arabia, the UAE or even Morocco. But a setting of this magnitude happens. We might think bad, good or anywhere between there and uncaring. But the fact that this happens brings a smile to my face. Because we are all fallible and someone wanting to enter Ramadan a day early should be heralded into doing the best for his or her faith. It is seemingly that simple, at least that Is what I think.

You all have a lovely day and abstain from offering any Elderly Muslim water between dawn (Suhoor) to sunset (Iftar), I would want to do this for humanitarian reasons, but apparently it is not an option to Muslims, knowing this makes my heart hurt a little more than I am comfortable with.

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February 13, 2026 · 14:59

As the world grows smaller

That is at times the setting, not because we are shrinking, but people leap with larger bounds, seek more distant settings and as distant settings become more and more reachable we seem to be shrinking. For the world this also means that other means become available. And here The United Arab Emirates take a leap, more specifically the ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) seeks to deliver LNG, more even better stated more LNG to the world as we are handed that “Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s shipping arm is evaluating the purchase of liquefied natural gas tankers as the state producer accelerates its push into global gas trading. Adnoc Logistics & Services may order four to six vessels to support the group’s expanding international business, Chief Executive Officer Abdulkareem Al Masabi said in an interview Wednesday. The order would come in addition to 14 LNG carriers already contracted to serve export projects in the United Arab Emirates.” this comes with the added setting of “Some of the new tankers could be ordered this year if a decision is taken to buy them, Al Masabi said without disclosing the potential cost. The company said Thursday that it continues to monitor developments in the global LNG market, but no orders for additional LNG vessels have been decided. Expanding the fleet would give Adnoc greater flexibility to market cargoes internationally rather than relying solely on long-term contracts.” Come to think of it, I wrote ‘Sinking a dilemma’ on February 1st 2026 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2026/02/01/sinking-a-dilemma/) seems like a nice coincidence, because that tunnel might avoid several pressures. And as we are given “Al Masabi also said tensions in the Red Sea have “calmed down,” though the route remains sensitive after months of attacks by Iranian-linked Houthi forces prompted many shipping companies to avoid the area. Some operators have recently resumed or increased voyages through the corridor.” This doesn’t cover the pressures there were, but it is related. If there are more options, more and more countries will hammer the Houthi forces with drones (and optionally actual aircrafts) to keep the Houthi population down (preferable close to zero). But these forces rely on Iranian support and at present Iran is walking a fine line. I personally am still open to the destruction of their oil reserves as an empty coffer wouldn’t allow them to buy any DLE-170 170CC Twin Two-stroke part, as such the problem also goes away. Yes, I know it is a figment of my imagination, but the idea that the Iranian Credit Card is no longer allowed to be used to buy any weapons is a nice dream to have. And as we are also given “Adnoc L&S is adding vessels to handle rising domestic export capacity. The company will take delivery of two LNG carriers this year — adding to four already received — to transport gas from Abu Dhabi’s existing export terminal at Das Island. A further eight ships will serve the Ruwais LNG terminal under construction on the Gulf coast, which is scheduled for completion in 2028.” As such (as I see it) Emirati export is going nicely in an upward setting. 

But personally (which might rely on flawed logic) there is every chance that people working in the oil and gas industry might also find employment there. It comes with all kinds of settings (not all seen as positive) as you might find yourself doing a tour on Das Island which is around 173.4 KM away from the party centres of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, but I reckon that its airport makes that trip in under an hour (call for specifics +97126063622). And that is the symbiosis you would want, work hard all day and twice a week (or a weekend) splash it around in either two places. But I might be oversimplifying the problem. 

What does matter that ADNOC has a growing availability of something almost the entire world needs and that makes it a sellers market. So get your orders of LNG in quick, once the contracts are signed the abundance goes away for you.

Have a great day, time for me to seek out the coolness of ice coffee and take a small walk.

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February 1, 2026 · 14:14

Sinking a dilemma

It was what I was thinking not just this morning, but in the past as well You see, people are so ‘upset’ about the danger towards the setting of Iran, that they seemingly are overlooking the obvious. The Strait of Hormuz is seemingly the blockade that Iran would like to ‘enforce’ if at all possible, but when you consider that the solution to this might be a lot less when you consider that a canal could be dug, starting north of Sharjah, going south south east towards Adhen and after that east towards Sharm and then out and straight into the Gulf of Oman. I reckon that this will also give the UAE several financial options. 

First there is the toll that ships have to pay to avoid any complications with Iran, then there are options for crew and vessels to optionally restock and refresh what they have in either Umm Al Quwain, Adhen or Sharm. This setting might bring several opportunities and there is the national pride of a canal though the UAE which might be an eye-catcher to all those yachts getting to Dubai. And there are risks but some can be levied beforehand and I reckon there might be plenty of oil companies happy to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, especially if there are any complications with the American clambake in Iran (they are trying to have one, but getting anything reliable form the White House is dodgy at best. And as a non-geologist, I have no idea what these hills (optional mountain ranges east of Adhen) will bring. But the professionals in this business will be able to ascertain what are dangers and what are mere complications that can be ‘negated’ and the Salmon canal I drew is a bit arbitrary (read: random) perhaps a canal more south towards Sharjah would be preferred. There are plenty of other thoughts, but I looked at the problem and I thought “What if we just avoid the Straight of Hormuz?” A simple thought and drawing a line is also simple, but I reckon that is when the professionals come into play and they have their own settings. Another benefit is that the Al Bidya Mosque is likely to get hundreds more visitors and there are multiple other opportunities, but also I think risk, because when tourists suddenly swarm a area, other not so nice settings come out the woodwork. But those are thoughts for another day. I am merely happy that I had another idea in a non-related area of expertise. For me it means that my brain is working creatively and optionally correctly. 

There is merely the setting that could open the eyes of others and considering what could be gained, I reckon it is something from the UAE who needs to do this. Another setting is that with the Straight of Hormuz out of the way, plenty of other yachters might consider setting their eyesight on Dubai. And optionally through the Suez Canal, but that might be overthinking it. It is merely the other side of opportunity that is at times the drag we all have. 

Have a great day and enjoy your coffee today (I am resorting to ice coffee as it is 30 degrees in my room now).

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January 24, 2026 · 06:19

Where are we heading?

That is the setting that I foresee and it worries me. I ‘accidentally’ stumbled upon an article (at https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Dismisses-Oil-Glut-Narrative-as-Seriously-Exaggerated.html) where we can watch a disturbing element. The headline given is ‘Saudi Aramco Dismisses Oil Glut Narrative as ‘Seriously Exaggerated’’it paused me as oil glut is defined as “An oil glut occurs when the global supply of crude oil significantly exceeds demand, resulting in an oversupply that cannot be fully consumed or sol” it would drive prices down, now we are always ‘in the market’ for cheap oil and even as I never gave credence to a car, I get why we need it. So the article gives us “The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth at 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment”, so who is the IEA? As given (at the IEA site) “The IEA family is made up of 32 Member countries, 13 Association countries, and 4 Accession countries seeking IEA membership” now for the interesting setting. This setting does include the United States (Brent oil) but does not include Saudi Arabia (Aramco) or the UAE (ADNOC), how do they get to drive down the price and talk about ‘oil demand’? Especially with the two largest contributors missing, oh, and it is also missing Iran and Venezuela. So is this a place where whining individuals start doing the Oliver Twist (please, can I have some more?) And where is the justice in making anyone produce more? Oil is a finite commodity and the nations who have it have every right to get their stock valued as high as possible (which is not in my best interest) but I gather that the United States have their stock in this through Brent Oil. As we are ‘given’ that “In 2024, the U.S. exported approximately 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum, while importing roughly 8.4 million b/d. The U.S. primarily exports light sweet crude and refined products like gasoline and diesel to over 170 countries.” As such they export 100% of what they import, as such they want the oil as cheap as possible, so their profit margins go up as much as possible. And for them 10,700,000 daily barrels where the price goes down 10%, whilst selling goes u by 5% makes for an interesting spreadsheet. But I do not see that part reflected anywhere do I? As such I wonder who will speak up for Saudi Arabia or the UAE? I personally don’t care that much about Venezuela or Iran but there you have it. A micro economy that is ultimately bending to the will of America and its need for greed. A setting that is not in the interest of either Saudi Arabia or the UAE and we are passing that by for the need of greed?  And when you realise this oil glut is a scenario that the IEA prefers, because they want to spike their profits and that is only possible when they bring oil prices down, but oil will spike and sooner than you think. With these data centers popping out nearly everywhere, the setting gets a much larger spike, because the planet is low on energy resources. And the IEA has you covered there too. They give us “Global electricity generation to supply data centres is projected to grow from 460 TWh in 2024 to over 1000 TWh in 2030 and 1300 TWh in 2035 in the Base Case.” Consider that setting when you consider that the Energy requirements of data centers will more than double over the next 4 years. That comes down to 25% growth a year and the nuclear facilities that are under construction will not come online before 2035. So where will oil stand in that case? I might not care about oil, but when the population of nearly every country will bitch when their petrol prices keep on spiking, year after year.

That is the reality and as I see it, the people ‘needing’ data centers also need oil prices to go down, so how is this fair on Saudi Arabia or the UAE? We seemingly forget on what is fair. The setting is as I see it jumping into the proverbial exploitation setting of the United States and after Venezuela and Greenland, sod we need to give in to the United States, more over can we even consider giving in to this American Administration and its need for greed? They wasted to opportunities they had and they now have a $38,600,000,000,000 debt. I think we have given enough, time to bail out and time to find more responsible people, because some say that greed is eternal, and until now I really never saw it that way. 

We are in a dangerous time and adjusting the ‘economic’ sentiment to what greed America and its vessels have is clearly the wrong move. So whilst the oilprce article gives us “But the market continues to be oversupplied, the Paris-based agency noted. “Indeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,” the IEA said.” As such the response “Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” by Aramco’s Nasser seem to be spot on. And it seems he is alone preaching against the choir of greed driven individuals. And as I see it, the IEA seemingly agrees with him. 

So where do we go now?

Have a great day today, I am a mere 150 minutes from breakfast at this time.

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December 31, 2025 · 10:06

The direction doesn’t matter

That is a weird stage to set things on, but for me in Australia, I am looking to events in the NW (actually WNW to North), Canada looks at it as events in the East (actually ESE) and Europe sees it as events to the South (actually SE), we look at things from a different perspective and in this the ABC (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-31/uae-saudi-arabia-yemen-strikes-port-weapons-shipment/106188568) we get ‘UAE withdraws personnel from Yemen after Saudi Arabia air strikes’ and the headline matters, but this is not the most important part. You see, I partially take offense to “The United Arab Emirates is pulling its personnel out of Yemen after Saudi Arabia’s bombing of an alleged shipment of weapons and vehicles it claimed had been going to a separatist group. The UAE Ministry of Defence said it would withdraw its remaining “counter-terrorism teams” from southern Yemen after Saudi Arabia issued a 24-hour deadline to the Emirates to leave and cease sending weapons and money to any group in the country.” This follows the issue I have with “Both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015, as the major players in a coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the north.” The ABC is wrong here, these aren’t Houthi rebels, they are Houthi Terrorists and they better realise their wrongful setting of the euphemism brush that they use in cases of Yemen events. As I see it,“A terrorist is an individual who uses or threatens violence against non-combatants (such as civilians) to create widespread fear and thereby achieve political, religious, or ideological goals.” And in all this Iran is equally guilty for enabling these terrorist events by delivering hardware and knowledge to the Houthi terrorists. We merely get “On 9 October 2021, Houthi forces launched two suicide drones on King Abdullah Airport in Jizan, Saudi Arabia. The attack left 10 wounded; six Saudi nationals, three Bangladeshi and one Sudanese as well as and minor damage to civilian property.” Yet, if the media took the trouble to question Colonel Turki bin Saleh al-Maliki of the Royal Saudi Air Force, they would get a number a lot higher and more recent of the attacks these terrorists made on Saudi Arabian soil, even though Yemeni hardware could never enabled these actions, neither was it possible to see the attacks on 14 September 2019, where drones were used to attack oil processing facilities. Houthi forces never had the knowhow and precision to follow through in that, making Iran the most likely culprit (I use culprit loosely as I never saw the evidence) and the western media is massively shy the reports on this, because that would enable Saudi Arabia to get the backing from the global population and that is a second setting the world was not ready for. It is all nice if one party is show to be the bad apple, but when too much evidence is showing to be incorrect, the people will ask questions and the media set themselves up for that stage. And there are developing stages here. As ABC gives us “But Dr Kendall said the Saudis and Emiratis supported different factions in southern Yemen, with Saudi Arabia preferring a united Yemen and the Emiratis supporting the separatist STC, which wants to create a new state in the south. That rivalry has intensified, especially after the UAE expanded its influence and military presence across southern Yemen and its islands, while Saudi Arabia responded by bombing the STC in Yemen’s eastern provinces last week. “Clashes have erupted in the past, most notably in 2019, but now is the most serious clash yet. This is a very serious disagreement about how, when and if the south should break away,” Dr Kendall said.” It shows that my knowledge is lacking involving Yemeni events and I blame the media for not keeping us up to date and that is the function of the media. ABC has been properly advising its readers (listeners and watchers too) of these events, but they likely have limiting resources. And as I see it, ABC stands mostly alone, whilst American, British and European news agencies let that chapter slide as (as I personally see it) Yemen isn’t sexy enough for the news. But that also implies that too many hand the bad card to Saudi Arabia whilst that is not the proper thing. As I see it, Iran is a lot more guilty of these bad cards than Saudi Arabia would have ever been entitled to.

We are also given ““The UAE categorically rejects any attempt to implicate the country in tensions among Yemeni parties and strongly denounces allegations that it exerted pressure on, or issued directives to, any Yemeni party to undertake military operations that would undermine the security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or target its borders,” the Emirati government said in a statement.” I cannot counter that because the media never gave us the real deal, but I am willing to color both nations in happy green, whilst keeping Iran in evil red (as colours go in my view of things) and that makes coloring the borders a problem, because I have seen close (thought Arabian news sources) to half a dozen attacks on Saudi civilian targets, making the Houthi terrorist the guilty party. So why is the ABC labeling them ‘Houthi rebels’? 

It is a setting that due to one sided and limited exposure a setting of question and whilst we might see the UAE and Saudi Arabia as the noble sides, there is more going on in Yemen and that could give us a setting of doubt and we are able and willing to be in doubt, because as I see it, most of the media isn’t doing their job (as I personally see it).

All whilst ABC gave us this image which is striking. There is a whole range of elements in action, some in the hearts of the Yemeni and the media just won’t give us the real deal. Why is that?

Have a great day and today is the last day of the year here, tomorrow will be another year.

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