Tag Archives: Italy

Tradecraft 301

This is not speculation, it is not presumption, it is a story. The beginning or one side to a story and it just jumped at me. I cannot use it in any of the other stories, as such I put it here. Enjoy and feel free to use this. 

It was early morning. The man was walking on the street. He was merely walking and enjoying the sounds of the city. Yet behind the facade that we all see there was something more, but unless you have been part of it, you will not pick up on it. He was looking to the stores in a mall and he was considering issues that were left open to him. He stopped, he smelled something and it was overwhelming him. On his left was an Italian shop making fresh wood fired oven baked flat bread. The sense of oregano was almost making him faint. He was suddenly so hungry. He saw the small breads, there was a version with Sopressa and parmesan. It was a special 2 for $5 and he bought two. He asked where he could get some coffee so he could sit down and eat them. The cook pointed at an empty table. He nodded and asked for a macchiato. He started to slowly eat the first loaf. A loaf was an exaggeration as the break was hardly more than a mini baguette but the smell and the taste were amazing. Before he had munched down on his first bread the macchiato was delivered. 

He starting to consider how greed has left tradecraft at a massive disadvantage all over the world, especially in London, most metropolitan American cities and Sydney. These franchise settings, setting an unrealistic stage of zero hours and non-manageable forced choices had opened up these places to tradecraft. Places like the IRGC were sending people to acquire these franchises, set 2-4 people as staff, letting them get trained in local customs and solidifying their new identities. And for years each place would gain 100-350 identities and credit card information. A trickle down solution that was not fast, but it was certain. Every shop would gain personal details from whomever paid with a credit card and it was fuelling the data coffers of UANI. And every day that no action was taken more details would flow to Tehran. The setting was almost unmanageable. It was even worse that the holders of these franchise solutions were holding onto their shops with an iron fist and their legal teams were shielding their revenue streams and not shielding the locations where the were. 

He considered that as far as he could tell already 28 shops were in play, three in Sydney, eight in London and the other 18 were set over San Francisco, New York and Chicago. And every 6 months these places would upgrade 36-72 agents to a new level finding new jobs with their old ‘employer’ vouching for it all and no one could tell how long it had been going on for. He was aware of at least 2 years of issues, as such Iran had close to 150 agents all over the globe and the options for chaos were enormous. So how to deal with them?

Detection was the largest problem. Several of them would enter some international student program and could fall under the net swim ming freely in an academic pond of knowledge and that was beside all the local knowledge they were acquiring by merely being silent and misinforming on their enemies through third party sources whenever possible. 

The options for some slaughterfest were also not possible. Before there were enough solutions, the media jumps in label it racism and they would make matters worse. Moreover these players had made connections with local organised crime overpaying for services and these people would be keeping an eye out whilst selling every now and then something with a huge margin, these people were not stupid, they were driven and the people who needed to be aware were not, or they just didn’t care.

Whatever this was it was a mere story. Will it grace your writings? Good luck with it and whilst I am looking at the additional settings for Residuam Vitam and Engonos I see more options for both, the question becomes how can I smooth things over? You see adding cogs tend to create levels of chaos and at some point I need to revisit the entire story and see if the story is smooth enough. Fr what it is worth, I see no point adding levels of tradecraft to either story. Well, Residuam Vitam has some tradecraft, but it was for different reasons and with a different mindset in play. The distinction makes sense when that story is complete and the additional parts are about to evolve, but that is on me and that is my challenge. 

We all evolve and every storyteller knows that if he or she does not evolve. Whatever comes after is merely repetitive and a simple twist on the originalist of the first story. A setting I will desperately avoid, but that is me. 

Enjoy the day.

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Is it bigger than a hotel room?

That seems like a question, but if you have been on the web and if you have been on YouTube you will have seen a AirBNB advertisement. I personally do not trust them. That is nothing against them, I for the most do not trust anyone. If my mother would call me promising me a solution that gets me  1000% return on investment, I would not trust her (she dies decades ago). 

The BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67341051) gives us ‘Italy to seize $835m from Airbnb in tax evasion inquiry’, it sounds simple and cozy. Yet I believe the all over setting is less simple. We see this with “Prosecutors say the firm failed to collect a tax from landlords on around €3.7bn of rental income. Landlords in Italy are required to pay a 21% tax on their earnings” and here lies the rub. Italian tax laws are not simple, but a lot less complicated than some and this was there in all the writings upfront. AirBNB might be “surprised and disappointed at the action announced by the Italian public prosecutor” but this was a simple application of Italian law. And the statement “Christopher Nutly said the firm’s European headquarters had been working to resolve the matter with the Italian tax agency since June” Really? June? It took me 11 minutes to see that part of the law and AirBNB was in the dark for months? As such “In 2022, Airbnb challenged the Italian law requiring the company and other short-term rental providers to withhold 21% of the rental income from landlords and pay it to tax authorities” Really? A firm goes up against Italian tax laws? How quaint. 

So when I see “The firm argued that Italy’s requirements on taxation contravened the European Union’s principle of freedom to provide services across the 27-country bloc” I wonder how their CLO (Chief Legal Officer) saw this? They checked with the local hookers on the Warmoestraat in Amsterdam perhaps? I am just fishing, but still. And the fact that they took this approach after YEARS leaves something to be desired as well. The fact that we are also given “Three people who held managerial roles at Airbnb from 2017 to 2021 were also under investigation, Milan Tribunal prosecutors said in a statement” gives me another path a simplified and optionally an incorrect  one. You see, this is an issue that has lasted for 6 years, the simpleton I would have looked at legal settings before day one commenced, but that is just me. 

Elizabeth Holmes, Sam Bankman-Fired, WeWork and the list goes on. Some ignored the law, some ‘overlooked’ and some merely made bad business calls and the media saw nothing until their stars exploded or imploded. How is that? A setting where we see €3.7bn of rental income and the Italian media never saw that post missing from the tax statutes? I am asking the questions out loud now, because the media isn’t. With Elizabeth Holmes, the media shunned Tyler Shultz. The media levitated Sam Bankman-Fried to godhood and no one looked where they needed to look for the longest of times. The €3,700,000,000 income in Italy makes that almost clear as day. You see that revenue exceeds the combined sums of Enel, Eni and Generali over 6 years and they are the top revenue firms in Italy and no one noticed? Who is asleep at the wheel there? 

Just some food for thought, enjoy it as you progress to the middle of the week.

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Voice of the Peoples Republic

It is not a voice we hear often, most times we try to ignore that voice on a multitudes of given premises that are by some account unverified. We merely accepted it and for the most we see the Tiananmen square image. We were all lulled into a state of denial and sleepiness. Now I am not stating that the pavements of President Xi are innocent, that is not the case I am going for. Consider that well over a dozen communities in the America’s are now extinct, all due to the greed of the Vatican. How do YOU see the Vatican? That is a serious question and you should ponder it. You see, some of this surfaces when we consider the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67305453) giving us ‘China and Australia: Frenemies who need each other’, I get the premise, yet this premise is incorrect for us. You see, as far as I know China has never engaged in hostilities with either Australia or New Zealand. We are also not at war with them. We merely boastingly push them away because of America. The article gives us “In recent years Australia and China have accused each other over human rights violations and perceived threats to national security. Public perceptions of the other side are more negative than they have ever been. But when it comes to trade, they cannot afford to let go of each other. At the peak of their trading relationship in 2020, almost half of Australia’s exports went to China.” It is true, we (Australia) do need China. America has less an less options to fund whatever they overspend. For China Australia (optionally New Zealand too) is a path setting a trade and commerce setting with the entire Commonwealth, with Canada optionally abstaining due to the borders of America. But that gives them Australia, New Zealand, India, Bangladesh, Bahamas, Jamaica, and in the end the United Kingdom and optionally Tuvalu. Tuvalu sounds like a joke, but the moment China gets to place a base there, Hawaii becomes an interesting setting. A place where the USA is no longer safe and it impacts most of the Pacific Oceans strategic area. 

The article is also giving us “Sure enough, a string of Chinese tariffs and restrictions followed on an estimated $20bn (£16.4bn) worth of Australian goods. Among the many products affected were barley, beef, wine, coal, timber and lobster. “Basically the Chinese government was sending a message. They were unhappy with the Australian government and decided to use economic coercion to make that point,” Professor Golley added.” Getting back to that, did we ever see a complete document on the origin of Covid-19? We saw that the media whore itself to all the digital dollars we can get, we saw some of the accusations, but were we ever presented a clear version of what actually happened? Preferably from an independent source? We have acted or presumed acting against China for the longest of times, but it is time to disregard certain media, disregard certain politicians (US politicians) and start listening to what we (in a national sense) need to get ahead. The fintech people made that abundantly clear and most of them are on Wall Street. Then we get something that gives me a question mark. We are given “He reminded Australians that trade with China was worth more than with Japan, the US and South Korea combined. Clearly, normalising relations between what he called “two highly complementary economies” would be a priority for his government. Whether China’s so-called economic coercion was successful is doubtful. Australia is still openly critical of Beijing on several fronts – but there is no question that Australian businesses and workers took a hit because of China’s trade restrictions.” The first is that America is becoming a liability. As its economic value decreases, so does the voice it holds and lets be clear America has used its own version of coercion for the longest of times. Its defence apparatus, the hardware we were ‘allowed’ to obtain and that list goes on. There is a question on economic-coercion from China, I am not saying it isn’t (or wasn’t) happening. I am stating that as the media has remained silent on too many sides, it is also the least reliable one. It is the cross that players like the Sydney Morning Herald (and other Australian papers) will have to carry. There is truth that China needs Australia, I reckon it needs New Zealand too. In all this BRICS will win and America will lose more and more ‘allies’, the economy has pushed for that part. I reckon that once the they acquire a clear business setting with the United Kingdom, the settings for Margrethe Vestager (EU commissioner) will change a lot. Her digital age will change from a field of dreams into a harsh pitfall as EU members will side with the UK hoping to salvage whatever they can, the EU will soon thereafter collapse, it is on the brink of failure right now. The EU had in March a total debt exceeding $14,689,200,000,000. So how long until more banks will have to pull the plug? I gave you all part of this in ‘The finality of French freedom’ which I wrote (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) on March 17th 2017. I saw the dangers SIX YEARS AGO. I compared the EU economy kept in place by 4 anchors, with the UK gone it would be three anchors. So the moment China gets the setting to woe the Commonwealth to the BRICS organisation, the EU anchors will collapse. I even mentioned that that economy cannot be maintained with two anchors and I believe that France will buckle before Germany will. The greed and gravy train embellished economy will not support itself when the gravy train collapses, these politicians will side with whatever pays their food stamps and America has none left at present. So yes, we might call China a frenemy, which sounds clever. Yet where is the evidence? We see a mention of coercion, but is it not the customer who is allowed to decide WHERE to buy? Were trade agreements broken? It might be, I merely do not know and the media is not properly informing us. This BBC article is good, it gave us more questions then answers and that is not a bad thing. The issues for a place like America is that the straws are now escaping their grasp and with each iteration we see BRICS gaining strength. It alas means that Russia will be in a stronger position and I reckon that for Chine, for them to win the long term gain they will need to remove Russia out of the equation. Russia is seeing that and is trying to set up more partnerships. But the overall picture with the players is somewhat clear. America and Russia fought so long that the sum of them is now less than the total power of
China and it is now fuelled with Middle East trillions, the one player that had all the cash was shunned and rejected on ego driven factors by America, how stupid was that and I have warned about that stupidity for well over a year. 

How is your weekend going?

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Unwinding

This article is not for the faint of heart. One could argue that there is something wrong with me (there always has been). I just had the craziest idea and if you reject it, that is okay. I have a hard time accepting it myself. You see, we are in a stage where we are nothing more than a puppet in a show that we do not want to watch. We are made to watch it, as such we need to unwind.

So here you see Watchdogs: Legion. A good game, but a game that could have larger stages. You see, Ubisoft made the map and the environment and there is nothing wrong with that. Yet to offer some stage to unwind, a new system came to mind. 

You see, there is an evolving setting where Ubisoft could release the option to enhance ANY game they have with user created DLC options. If anything Bethesda has shown just how creative users could be and Ubisoft might spin that in a new direction. You see, people have had enough of certain clowns and that is where my creative mind came into play.

I chose Watchdogs: Legion, because the environment fits. Now consider that you are a new character. The character is a seal hunter. You are shown in shoddy clothes wielding a spiked bat. Now you have to stop is disperse 10 Just Stop Oil protests by clubbing the protesters to death (just like some do to seals). Lets be clear, this is just a game. The higher level is that you need to do this before the protesters can create too much financial damage. 

You think it is bonkers and yes, to a degree it is. But the media is no longer trustworthy and as the photo-mode comes into place with you showing off the protesters you killed, people might stop to consider just how stupid these protests are. For Ubisoft it is a win-win. They sell more games, they create a DLC creation kit that allows to make user created IP for the games they own and we get to blow off steam because we arrived 90 minutes late at a job as some protesters were dancing in front of a bus. If enough hay is created with photo mode and these protesters have to consider just how much stress they are creating, they might decide to select donuts for dollars. So these protesters might go a new direction, but the story, the song and the dance remain the same. Seeking limelight in the wrong way and for that we have a solution. A spiked bat to release the stress they inflicted upon us. 

Next could be Karen hunting In San Francisco or Chicago. The options are endless (well for as long as Ubisoft has location games). Yet the underlying setting is there too. You see, we love our games and some love the settings of the Creed in Italy, Egypt and now Baghdad as well. Yet when you are done with the 25 hours in Bagdad, wouldn’t it be great to test the DLC from another fan? I am not sure of the technical possibilities to get that done, but when you consider 3 Watchdogs, at least 5 Assassins Creed, several Far Cry games. I might not have liked them all, but they all have a well pronounced fanbase and as such a DLC creator might be Ubisofts ticket to get additional revenue. It will be limited to PC, I get that, but when the DLC is good enough, perhaps Ubisoft might make some of them additions to consoles as well. Just a thought. 

I have enjoyed Wednesday now for 2 hours. The middle of the week is here. 

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One source confirms

That is where I stand. Today I got news from the Asia Times on something I have been saying for some time. Now, one source does not make it true, but the information given here and pretty much nowhere else should give people a place to start, moreover it could also be seen as the underlying problem to something a lot more dangerous. The article (at https://asiatimes.com/2023/06/eu-push-to-rip-and-replace-huawei-5g-meets-resistance/) gives us ‘EU push to rip and replace Huawei 5G meets resistance’ where we see “EU Commissioner Thierry Breton wants Germany and other European countries to stop dragging their feet and eliminate Chinese equipment from their 5G telecom networks. The European telecom industry and Huawei are pushing back.” This is the start of something I have stated for a long time, yet now we get “Deutsche Telekom quickly rejected claims that mobile networks built by China’s Huawei could be altered remotely to cause damage or steal data. In a June 16 statement to the German news site golem.de, a spokesman for the German telecom provider declared, “No [software] update can be introduced into the live system that was not fully tested for functionality and security.”” This shows the first chink in the EU armour. This is followed by “The network management systems are located in a high-security network that is completely separated from the Internet and from the company’s office communications network,” said Deutsche Telekom executive Stephan Broszio, according to press reports. “Access to this network is granted only to a few employees subject to strict security review. A remote attack by the producer firm [namely Huawei] is not possible.” In addition we get “Austria’s chief telecommunications regulator, Klaus Steinmauer, told the Austrian News Agency that he “saw no danger from Huawei,” adding, “I don’t know of a single instance” of problems” As I personally see it, EU Commissioner Thierry Breton either publishes clear evidence of these dangers, or he should move to Washington DC and become an Uber driver. You see if there is evidence fine, but for years now we see boasts and never was any evidence given. I see this as a problem and now that the US cannot foot any bills, the others are stating that the US needs to eff off (you know what I mean). I reckon it is not long until these telecom companies will demand that the EU foot the bills for hundreds of billions in hardware change, foot the bill for adjusting that hardware and foot the bill for loss due to diminished broadband capacity. In the meantime Saudi Arabia is extending its reach into Africa and the Mediterranean, after which the telecoms will get loss upon loss and handing over what margins they had to the Saudi Telecom Company (STC), because that is now merely one step away. That was given to us in April with ‘Saudi Telecom Buys Mobile Tower Unit in Europe from United Group’, which now gives them access to Bulgaria, Croatia, and Slovenia, after which the access towards Italy, Greece, Spain and the rest of the Mediterranean is all but a simple flick of a switch. 

But leave it to players like EU Commissioner Thierry Breton to ignore the obvious. On the upside, with my language skills, I would gain another job option to another company and in this day and age that matters, especially as big tech is shedding thousands of positions. 

And even as the article ends with “it would help dispel suspicions that Breton and the European Commission are simply following instructions from the US.” I reckon that until we see actual EVIDENCE of the nefarious implied deeds by Huawei, that feeling will not go away, not for a long time.

So enjoy the day whoever you telecom with, today, or tomorrow. 

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Slam-dunk for the blogger

Yup, I got to call the slam-dunk in my name, on my name and for my name. Now, I am no basketball fan, not when there is the NHL. But I have to give it to the NBA, that term they got right. So this all happened in the morning as I was pondering what was next on the table. Then the BBC gave me the heads up (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65804768) with the ominous ‘Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia pledges output cuts’. I had made mention of this danger a few times over the last month alone and now we get “Oil prices have risen after Saudi Arabia said it would make cuts of a million barrels per day (bpd) in July” and remember it is only a million barrels a day, my scenario was a little less nice. This is the exact danger that I predicted and now that it is going to pass, I wonder what the trolls will shout at me. I made mention yesterday that oil prices would be on the calendar of Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) and now it actually is there and it will be a rather not so nice meeting coming up, I reckon that Iran is no longer the main focus. This and the stage of BRICS implies that hard times are ahead for the US and I reckon to some extent the EU too. Because now the US is driven to make the million less be a larger setting for the EU than for the US. A stage well predicted and now it is coming to pass. 

It is Sameer Hashmi, the BBC Middle East business correspondent who gives us “it was widely expected the oil cartel would make production cuts to prop up prices. It appears most members were against the idea, as any cuts would impact oil revenues, which are crucial to keep running their economies.” He is not wrong, but the oversimplified setting is that they are going from 4 barrels at $3, to three barrels at $4. They all still get their $12 (and then some), but the larger stage  comes into play when the equation turns towards 2 barrels for $6, they will still get the same, but now their supplies will last twice as long. The larger problem for the US is that they get 50% for the same price and they still haven’t considered muzzling Brent Oil, those people export over 80% and now something will have to give and that is the stage we are coning to now. So when the UK and EU start feeling the pain of less oil there economy will impact to a much larger extent and as the Just Stop Oil people start shouting victory, the impact of people who cannot pay for heating bills, tradies that can no longer work because their prices need to keep going up, the setting of losses all over rural nations (UK, Germany, Italy and France the most) will be seeing much larger impacts. A stage that was clearly out there. The clearest recent mention I made was on April 13th (almost 2 months ago) at ‘The song remains the same’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/04/13/the-song-remains-the-same/) it was clear that reductions were in the focal point of OPEC members and in this Russia is merely sitting back, for them it works out nicely. But the larger stages of economy are not set to the drawback of oil lacks, no scenario was set to that and that is the largest political failure in the west. In this the one solution they had with Elon Musk is now slipping from their fingers. So not only did the US bite both hands that could be feeding them, whatever comes next might not be in time for the next debt ceiling, implying that default is the only thing that Americans have to look forward to. 

So in the end one player wins, the other player loses, but I get my slam-dunk. Is it fair? That is not the question, I saw this and I predicted this, so why did these high paid politicians not see this? It wasn’t rocket science (well perhaps the Musk solution was). And as options run short the west needs to rethink the political egotistical needs they had and how they will sail with a lack of vision. All that and more hardships will be coming soon and they did this all to themselves and that setting was clear long before Trump took office. A setting of cogs and the first cog will not care what the second and third cog faces. That is the oversimplified truth of the matter, so whilst we watch the news this month, also look at how much enough the people have with the ‘Just stop oil’ movement. As I personally see it, the UK got directly hurt by them and the CAAT all on moral grounds that were massively one sided and based on a fake moral high ground. So remember them when your pump price goes from 189.9p to 293.4p. Don’t blame the pump owner, blame the people who made this happen. 

Enjoy the day (consider a bicycle).

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Would you believe that?

That was my very first thought when I saw (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/2/blinken-to-visit-saudi-arabia-to-discuss-strategic-cooperation) ‘Blinken to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss ‘strategic cooperation’’. There we are given “Blinken will “discuss US-Saudi strategic cooperation on regional and global issues and a range of bilateral issues including economic and security cooperation”, the State Department said in a statement.” I have an actual hard time believing that. You see there are a number of issues that count for the US.

1. Banking instabilities.
2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.
6. Syrian diplomatic settings.
7. Outstanding US bonds with the KSA.

These are just 7 issues of a whole range of problems that the US is facing ever since they burned their ally the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia walked away from Credit Suisse is making the US rather nervous. They had this idea that when the going gets tough, the purse of Saudi Arabia is there to bail them out. That is not (or no longer) a given. The oil prices are biting the US and cheaper oil is for them essential, even though Brent Crude Oil is doing close no nothing to stop that pain. Then the new issue erupts and I mentioned this yesterday. BRICS is no longer on the sidelines. It wants the western worlds to adjust their views and they now have the muscle to do that, with Saudi Arabia added they will also have the money to do that. I personally think that Saudi Arabia will have a close ally, as such the UAE might become a member too. So now you see how the words of Italy are too little and too late (see my article 2 days ago). 

Then the think I mentioned a few times, as China gets the Saudi Defence spendings, the US will come up short and that bites as well and these are the biggest issues for the US, as such Iran is hardly a blip. OK, it is more but only when the world sees that when you are broke you cannot push for economic sanctions on Iran (Russia too) and it is already selling oil to India or Pakistan (not sure who) and China, so that marble is faltering nicely. Then there is Syria and the largest issue are the outstanding bonds that the US sold. I actually do not know how many the KSA or Kingdom Holdings have, but if they flood the markets they will lose money and it will be disaster for the US, who will run out of cash long before Q3 2024. Which means they are 1-2 quarters short, or perhaps better stated at the end of their wallets they need to survive another 2 quarters. Good luck with that idea in the US. 

So when we see the Al Jazeera article and many others on why Blinky Tony is going to Riyadh, I feel certain that there is a lot more going on that w are being told. And I feel certain that it is not on the media. I feel that the White House administration will never admit to this Oliver Twist moment with “Can I have some more please?” No one would admit to that, it is just a little weird to see the entire BRICS setting a day early and now we get this. 

And he has more on his plate. We get that with “attend Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) talks during his visit, starting on June 6”. I reckon that is when he will make mention of two variables (Iran and Syria). It is speculation, but that is what I (with no diplomatic knowledge) would do.

I reckon that this is one of the hardest times for the US State department ever. It did not help that it was this president who stated to make Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. So how is that working out?

Enjoy the weekend.

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Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

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The perception of others

This is a case, this is often a case and in this case. I am one of the others. You see the ‘news’ is no longer that, it is often filtered information. Information that is accepted by shareholders, stake holders and advertisers, as such the people are seen and treated more often than not as a distant fourth. This setting came to the forefront when I saw ‘G7 takes stand against China’s “economic coercion”’ (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65662720) where we are given “And in not one but two statements, the leaders of the world’s richest democracies made clear to Beijing their stance on divisive issues such as the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. But the most important part of their message centred on what they called “economic coercion””  Now here we need to pause. These people do not lie (at least I hope they do not), but lets take a look at the evidence. The first is the ‘world’s richest democracies’, these nations are

1. Canada, debt around $ 2,100,000,000,000
2. France, debt around € 3,000,000,000,000
3. Germany, debt around € 2,600,000,000,000
4. Italy, debt around $ 3,000,000,000,000
5. Japan, debt around $ 9,300,000,000,000
6. UK, debt around £ 2,500,000,000,000
7. USA, debt around $ 32,500,000,000,000

Yes, they are really rich (in debt). To give a little consideration “As of April 2023 it costs $460 billion to maintain the debt, which is 13% of the total federal spending” for the US, their interest is $460,000,000,000 to pay for the interest and 13% of the entire budget is to pay for the interest. So all this talk about debt ceilings is close to null and void. Not unlike a Ponzi scheme the US government is taking out new loans to pay for the INTEREST of old loans. When did that ever go good? But that is not what this is about. The next stage is about ‘economic coercion’ something America and others have done for decades. Economic coercion is a political tool that the US pushed all over the middle east, and now that Saudi Arabia and other are pulling their contract with the US and giving options to China it is coercion? I mentioned it a few days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/19/the-stupidity-of-some/) in ‘The stupidity of some’, I made mention of some elements then and several other articles before that. One should not bite the hands that feeds you and I reckon that is why other players were invited to this party as well (no matter what they say). The US is broke and needs others to do some of the heavy lifting. This is OK, or at least that is why allies stick together, but the bulk is deeply in debt with Canada and Australia in a much better position. Germany had industrial revenues so it is not that bad off either. But this is not bout that, it becomes clear when we see “Now, they worry they are being held hostage. In recent years, Beijing has been unafraid to slap trade sanctions on countries that have displeased them. This includes South Korea, when Seoul installed a US missile defence system, and Australia during a recent period of chilly relations.” They worry? So are they being held hostage, or are they not. Lets be clear all these players have engaged with some form of economic coercion in the past, it is a valid political tool, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, the US is worried. It is losing its grip on the Middle East and as Saudi Arabia is uniting its nations and leagues with the added Syria, Egypt and now optionally Iran as well, the stage changes for the west in the Middle East. China has been invited there now and that worries all players of team G7. You see with them losing 5%-10% revenue to China due to all kinds of reasons they are now scared that someone (the big banks like the Rothschilds) will cancel THEIR credit card and that has them scared silly. I would be to, I really would. This is just a few reasons why I tried to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and Kingdom Holdings (optionally the UAE too). Amazon and Google were asleep and not caring (perhaps they didn’t like my IP) and Microsoft is not invited to that party and optionally Tencent Technologies is.

You see, the stage, several stages are turning to China as an option. Does China have any less debt? I cannot tell, but they are drilling into new business like nothing we see and that has the G7 scared. 

So when we get to “They called for “de-risking”- a policy that Ms von der Leyen, who is attending the summit, has championed. This is a more moderate version of the US’ idea of “decoupling” from China, where they would talk tougher in diplomacy, diversify trade sources, and protect trade and technology.” We see the larger stage, the ‘west’ will diversify trade sources, so that new and emerging economies can only do business with them if they do not do business with China. Almost like Sony did with retailers in 1998/1999. Those who were showing the SEGA Dreamcast would not be getting the PS2. It scared a lot of retailers because PS2 was a winning system and it did. The same was done much earlier with VHS pushing out Betamax (which was superior). A tool used again and again. Yet the larger stage is not these emerging economies, they are a factor, it is what will Saudi Arabia and the UAE do, they are now aligning the next decade and they were the big spenders all over the place and that setting is now heading for China (not sure if it is a done deal) and in this Egypt is important. With them championing Huawei and their G5, Egypt aligns with Saudi Arabia and a lot of commerce and Egypt then becomes a 5G beachhead all over the mediterranean and Africa. This will benefit China a lot. And as we get to “The US is already doing this with its ban on exports of chips and chip technology to China, which Japan and the Netherlands have joined. The G7 is making clear such efforts would not only continue, but ramp up, despite Beijing’s protestations.” This is the stage that is evolving and it is a dangerous move to make. I get why it is done. In the first I am not stating that China is innocent, I am stating that they all used these tools and the debts are drowning their actions. The danger is that if there are any innovative people in China, they will come with an alternative. I have no idea what, but I recall a nice example. The US created a specific ballpoint pen that could be used in space, they spend millions on that solution somehow and Russia? They used a pencil. We saw the Huawei block by Google and now Huawei is rocking the Harmony OS which is available in 77 languages. It is different from both Google and Apple, so what happens when Harmony becomes the tool of choice in the Middle East? You can ban and block, but the danger is that someone finds another way just like Toshiba in Russia decades ago and there was no alternative, as such Toshiba grew and grew with an entire market where they had no competition. Will it happen again? I am certain of it, when one resource closes people look for another resource, it is a natural continuation. Only really stupid people think that no one can get around them and I wonder what will come next. As such I have issues and the BBC did nothing wrong here, they reported, they used quotes and they adhered to something (not sure what). I am showing you that what is said is not merely dangerous it is deceptive. It these are the richest democratic economies, why is there a 50 trillion dollar debt (actually it is decently higher at present). A debt of 50,000 billion and no one is asking questions. I get it (to some degree) Russia is now a problem, the Ukraine is dealing with it, but it can only do so much. It needs support and I agree they do need it and I believe they deserve all the help we can give them, yet across the waters there is no one dealing with the actual debt, they are merely prolonging a complete collapse that will have too many deep in debt for decades. Retirement plans will collapse, health care will collapse and we will all blame someone, but no one is looking at how we all let this happen and now those with the option will look towards the Middle East (including me), a lot are looking at China as an option and a global brain drain will be the consequence. All settings that the G7 will have to consider, because they all have a lot to lose.

Enjoy the start of Monday up to 12 hours (for some) from now. 

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History, repetition mode

This is a little harder to write about. It actually started in 2017 when I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’, the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) makes a few accusations as I personally saw them. We got some kind of a warped excuse towards ‘we made a mistake’ a year later, but I reported it as I saw it, fear mongering by the IMF. Yes, all those people filling their pockets on the Credit Card of the United Kingdom were missing out on exquisite lunches. This was (as I personally saw it) starting to happen again on February 1st when I wrote ‘Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/01/insecure-masturbation-fraternisers-imf/), there we were given via the BBC (no allegations towards them), that the ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023’, ‘expected’ and ‘major’ being key elements there. Now we see “53% of business leaders in France said they expect a recession in 2023”, it is important to note that this does not make that true. All this whilst Reuters reports ‘Meloni: Italy could be in recession in 2023, faces tough times’, here too we see ‘could’ and that is important, but that gives us that there is a case that the IMF is nothing more than a stupid political tool, fear mongering yet again. So we return to the January 31st BBC story where we see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted”, now it is time to look at the story now 17 hours old. Here we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64584295) ‘UK economy avoids recession but not out of woods – Hunt’, where we are given “the ONS revised up its figures for the July to September quarter, to show that the economy shrank by 0.2% instead of the previous estimate of a 0.3% fall”, as well as “some think the UK will avoid a technical recession completely”, as such I also admit that what some admit does not constitute evidence. Yet the fact that the IMF (yet again) makes an error of 0.6% which amounts to almost 23 billion. It is hard to put a number on anything and the flaw seems small, but the 0.6% seems more dangerous than that. The problem is, who is right. One cannot be regarded as wrong because of the negativity, the other cannot be regarded as wrong because of the lessened negative setting. But I can tell you this. The EU credit card is tapped out, the only way to get a handhold on that is by adding the UK back to it, there is no care on how the UK does, it is that if the UK rejoins the EU (after all that bullying) that the EU credit card is back in business and that (especially after the Mario Draghi fiasco’s) should not be allowed. I always stated that things would get worse before they get better and when they get better it becomes a lot better in a hurry, there aren’t 21 countries dragging the UK economy down, as well as their budgets. 

There is a much larger field and serious questions might have to be asked about the seeming incompetent acts of the IMF. I would state that a player like the BBC needs to clearly show sources regarding some of their reports, but I get that this might not be possible, yet the time for questions grow ever larger, especially after I showed issues on at least three events. In the end it might be me, but I was right the first time, I have questions the second time and we need to ask questions, especially when the Bremain bullies are out in force and there are indications (not evidence)  that the IMF is aiding them. But that is merely my point of view on the matter.

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