Tag Archives: Oil

September 12, 2023 · 03:00

The future is today

That is a small reference to Beaker, the assistant of Muppets lab where the future is being made today. The thought came to me after seeing an article which took me back to one of my articles. The article in question is ‘On the way to……’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/07/28/on-the-way-to/). In that article I give the readers “Yet the larger part is how the prices (allegedly) dip a little in early 2024, as I see it as these settings continue, the world (EU and USA) will face oil prices of $90+ from December 2023 onwards. I have no idea how high they will get, but the larger setting no matter how managed it is, the shortage will continue and press pressures up to weird levels all over Europe.” So that was my prediction at the end of July, two months ago. I was called all kinds of things, including Arab buddy and wog friend (whatever that is). So now we get ‘Oil prices ease after Saudi, Russian output cuts but hold above $90’ (at https://ara.tv/24w46), so basically we are already at the $90+ point and it was (as I personally see it) clearly visible. And when we add “The supply cuts overshadowed continuing concern over Chinese economic activity last week, but investors looked to be focusing on demand drivers on Monday, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to release monthly reports this week.” It is more than the simple demand drivers. Yes, these drivers are a first, but the environment, the effects are now becoming a second. The larger setting is that the hot summers are likely going to be the fuel for a drastic and much colder winter. If that is true (and it is pure speculation) the west and especially the northern hemisphere could require a lot more oil for heating and that will drive up the oil price ever further. I have no idea how high it will get but it is already above $90, as such $100 per barrel is not out of the question, but this is not my ballgame. I saw the increase, but how high is less my issue, or my interest as I do not own any oil wells. 

So what will happen next? Well, there is some confusion on that. The EU and US have alienated Saudi Arabia as well as some of the other OPEC nations and with Russia in the state it is in a lot of oil is no longer available to the EU, yet the US is the largest producer at present and where it all goes is up to all of you, but it comes at a price. What that price will be is anyones guess but the demand of oil keeps on pressing and the needs during coming winter could reach new heights. But that is pure speculation from my side. I have no information that could be ruled as acceptable evidence. What does matter is that whilst I saw this moment two months ago, too many were in doubt or flat out denying this and we are now entering a stage where denial is the start of disastrous folly. For me the fun part was that I was right all along (yet again) and I am perhaps Beakers twin or assistant and I predicted the present two months ago. OK, I expected this to happen in a few months, but we are already there, all whilst others were playing possum with the reality of events.

Enjoy the day.

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August 25, 2023 · 19:06

And then there were 6 more

I have been expecting this, I have been awaiting it. OK, I have a few different reasons, but the added BRICS members (from January 1st 2024) are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. I don’t think that the people get how much of a issues this is going to be. BRICS members, just like any other membership (like EU, NATO) will give preference to its own members first. On ‘the seventh guest’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/21/the-seventh-guest/) I wrote “I am certain that Russia and China will use this opportunity that opened up, I just do not know how at present.” That was June 2019. There was no war looming in the Ukraine (and BRICS was not on anyones radar). This setting would be coming naturally from China and now we are about to see that play. Now consider that Saudi Arabia imports from United States was a simple US$16.22 Billion during 2021, now also consider that U.S. Exports to Saudi Arabia constitute 14.2% of total U.S. exports of those commodities worldwide. Now consider that these two numbers will diminish by at least 50% and those trades all go to China (optionally Russia too). I reckon that January 2024 will be the start where the debt levels the US currently has can no longer be allowed. Doing so will end its existence sooner and sooner. Should the US default, they will drag the EU and Japan down with them. A sentiment that China will not shed a tear about. Egypt is interesting as it propels the Saudi plans for their global G5 plans a lot further and a lot faster and it puts the EU and US out of the game pretty much overnight. As such there are signs that the latter two are racing to get agreements in play now. Something Saudi STC and Chinese Huawei are eager to block. Now consider a second part. The quoted setting was “the relationship is that the United States of America (USA) provides military protection of the Kingdom in exchange for a reliable oil supply from the Saudis, pricing of oil in USA dollars, and Saudi support for American foreign policy operations across the world” under those steps China is the most likely party to enlarge their options and they stand to get a lot more oil, oil that is likely not to go to the US and EU from January 1st 2024 (or at least a decent part of it). The latter one is a speculation, but it fits the long term play China is employing and in this I could be wrong. The KSA has long term agreements with the USA. The larger concern isn’t merely the KSA. In this new agreement Iran and the UAE join and now there is a new balancing point in the Middle East and the Emirates are part of that. So how much import does the UAE get from the USA and EU? So when they too go from “United Arab Emirates Imports from United States was US$16.88 Billion during 2021”as well as “European Union Exports to United Arab Emirates was US$37.38 Billion during 2022” and now consider that these two will go down by at least 50%, if not a whole lot more. That gives us $99,000,000,000 in lost commerce from these two places alone and that is merely the start. So how will their government credit cards go when they do not have these revenue streams continue? After that consider the damage that lost revenue from Egypt could get up to as well as increased revenue to China and this is not new, that danger existed from 2019, but certain American politicians were to ego driven and now it all comes to a speculated halt in 16 weeks. For China it will turn out to be a very merry Christmas this year. For the EU and USA a lot less so. But they were warned (not by me), these so called wannabe’s making the calls had more than information I had and they played the ostrich game. So how is that playing out for them? If you were hoping for some miracle cure from me you would be wrong. As I see it, it is too late for that. The US and UK should have adjusted their courses at least 3 years ago (7 would have been better). In the end for several players their upcoming BRICS membership is merely  business decision and that is what China and India are hoping for, because it opens their options by a fair bit starting in 2024. 

As I personally see it, the endgame will play itself, I see no moves left for the Commonwealth, the EU or the USA. Setting that should and could have been avoided for close to 5 years were never done and now with an enlarged new player on the global stage we can watch and see Wall Street implode on itself. To see the desperate go nuts on greed missed all because of some ego driven politicians will be stellar on a few levels. You see a secular population is a weird thing, the moment things go really south, they will rely on the faith of others to let them continue. Does that make the profoundly lost sentiment a drive of sarcasm or a natural wave of irony? I am not sure what applies more but as an antithesis they might be feeding each other for some time to come (especially when the media wants to get as much digital dollars as it can). 

I honestly wonder which systems will still be in play by April 1st 2024, what a joke that will be. Enjoy the weekend.

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July 28, 2023 · 12:51

On the way to……

I was on route to some IP pondering when the Al Jazeera story ‘White House adviser Jake Sullivan meets Saudi crown prince for Jeddah talks’ crossed my path. Immediately the thought   “There are just so many ways you can beg for cheap oil” passed my mind. OK, that might have been out of line, but the premise still sets. The White House have send nearly every large caliber in the direction of Saudi Arabia without making it an overly clear ‘White House’ event. The story also gives us (yet again) ““We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are,” Biden said during a 2019 Democratic debate.” These were hollow words given at the wrong time. And now almost 4 years later the setting is as dire as the US has ever had them, but OK. Try to make us all believe that this is about ““bilateral and regional matters”, the White House said, including initiatives “for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous and stable Middle East”” Sure, make it about the one thing that the Middle East does not need the US to initiate. It has initiated enough imbalance to last it an eternity. Even as Reuters gives us ‘Oil settles above April peak on tighter supply’ (at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-up-supply-tightness-view-offsets-concerns-rate-hikes-2023-07-27/). We need to consider the impact of “Still, oil dropped on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell less than expected and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, leaving the way open for another increase.” You see, this scorcher of a summer on the northern hemisphere is also impacting energy costs, AC and cooling units are working overtime, as such winter could be a killer. I am using could be, because there is no clear evidence that this summer will leave us with a mild winter, implying that the US and EU are facing 5%-15% more energy needs and with the price of oil that could be a massive impact. One source is giving us today “Standard Chartered analysts conclude that crude prices are finally starting to catch up with the reality of a tightly supplied oil market.” Really? I got there months ago, so how are these clowns actually making their money? A tightly supplied market is the premise of shortages close to everywhere, and if you think that the EU is a nice place now, consider 28 members fighting each other for the same oil allotment, should be fun. I will invest in popcorn, we would all want some so we can watch the nagging tea bitches fight this one. I saw some forecast charts, but I had issues with them (optionally) for the most I might not get all the elements in that forecast. That is simple as I am not in that business. Yet the larger part is how the prices (allegedly) dip a little in early 2024, as I see it as these settings continue, the world (EU and USA) will face oil prices of $90+ from December 2023 onwards. I have no idea how high they will get, but the larger setting no matter how managed it is, the shortage will continue and press pressures up to weird levels all over Europe. All that is before China achieves a larger stake in the oil supplies. The US is silently hoping that they get it all from Russia, but without the cap in place China sees a larger benefit vying for the same stack that the US and EU are vying for. Call me nuts, but I reckon that is one scenario that could go south for the EU sooner rather than later. We all see what is given to us as to the events happening, but there is something off in sending National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan a month after Anthony Blinken went there. Something does not add up and it might just be me, but there is more to this visit than the press tells us (which is what the US likely told the press), they need something and cheap oil is the first thing that comes to my mind.

And in the heat the US and EU faces? Well I reckon one barrel of oil per household to keep it cool should do it. Oh no, there are only 2 million barrels to go round (times 90 days = 180) , so what about the other 600 million people. How will they get cooling? And what about winter, which 600 million need to face it without heating? Yes, the equation is not correct, but the sentiment is. For the first time since 1973 will we face an oil shortage. I tried to warn you all but too many called me stupid and insane (the latter might be true). So I will see you buried, frozen to death soon enough. I wonder if anyone realises how dire it is about to become and don’t blame me. All these analysts should have been there long before I arrived at that station, so why weren’t they? They can ignore it for now, but in February when the death count starts, their BS reasoning will be met with the anger of people who lost someone in the big freeze of 2023/2024. What will they do then?

Enjoy the day and enjoy the AC at current prices, the weekend is about to start.

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July 13, 2023 · 00:40

Enemy of the stated

That is sometimes the case and I got that alert yesterday. It took me a while to get on board with some of the items, yet on the other side there is more and there is something else at that. So lets start with that part as it matters. Last year, almost 1 year ago I wrote an article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/07/18/for-those-not-seeing-the-oil-field/) with the title ‘For those not seeing the oil field’. In that Article I wrote “China could sell the Chengdu J-20 at a nice price to Saudi Arabia (I admit I was trying to get my foot in the door and make a play for a simple 3.75% commission), and when you consider that this bill might go up to 15 billion, my 3.75% makes for a nice half a billion (we all have overly big dreams), and merely to play the courier? You have got to be kidding, I am so ready for that part!” And that stage as already underway at that time (alas, not for me). In an age where in Australia we see nearly the entire nation ripe with age discrimination, I was aiming for a nice job getting 3.75% (an internal joke from 1996) of whatever comes up and recently I learned that this might be as high as $23.8 billion over 2 years. This would have gotten me a $892,500,000 pay-check (over 2 years). Would I accept that? Hell yes! For being a simple courier for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? I would have been so there. Australia has no enemy relationships with either country. Is it my best case scenario? Not exactly, I am a commonwealthian after all, as such I preferred to be courier to documents for the British Typhoon. Yet British Parliament gave it up for British tea grannies and their CAAT. The Americans made a mess of everything pushing their own solutions away from a decent revenue taxable future. So I was looking out for me and I would have taken that job, no hesitation about it. 

So now you have the background, lets dig into the article that sets this off. It was the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66160979) who gives us ‘US think tank founder charged with acting as Chinese agent’. In that article we are given a few parts. First there is “Gal Luft “agreed to covertly recruit and pay” an unnamed ex-US official to publicly support certain Chinese policies, federal prosecutors say. The 57-year-old allegedly attempted to broker arms sales involving customers in China, Libya, the UAE and Kenya.” Here we have two issues. Was he a broker? Did he connect to people, who via him conducted business? Broker is a bit of a lose term. And we aren’t talking two parties, we are looking at at least 3 channels, optionally more, but what is relevant and what matters? For Americans it is a setting for courts and good luck with that evidence. The second allegation is “In 2016, officials say he failed to register as a foreign agent while acting to advance Chinese interests in the US. He is alleged to have lobbied an ex-US official who was an adviser to then President-elect Donald Trump to convince him to “publicly support certain policies with respect to China”.” Here, in the first, was he a foreign agent, or was he a (technical) consultant? They are very different and evidence is bringing that up (I never saw any for that matter). And as the ‘activity’ happened in 2016, why did it take 7 years for anyone to take actions? Which policies was he catering to? Is that not the job of any stake holder in the political field? Was the policy a legal one or a illegal one? Three questions that blow away the setting if the court doesn’t have a proper deck of Trump cards (pun intended). Then we get a very specific one “Prosecutors also accuse him of attempting to broker arms sales without a US permit. He allegedly worked to help Chinese companies sell anti-tank launchers, grenade launchers and mortar rounds to Libya.” The short and sweet is, can it be proven that he was a broker, or was he an un-sided courier? Person A and Person B do not know each other (good enough), but they both know Person C and that person couriers the papers between the two. Isn’t that what DHL does? Is DHL a courier of an arms broker? Then we get “Federal officials say he attempted to bypass US sanctions on Iranian oil by directing an associate to say that the oil was Brazilian. According to prosecutors, Mr Luft was arrested in Cyprus on US charges on 17 February this year and fled after being released on bail pending extradition.” This is a specific allegation and a big ‘no no’ Iran is on the naughty list of many nations and there they might have a case. I reckon it is stupid to do what he did as the sulphur content of Brazilian and Iran are very different, did he not think this through? Well that is a case that might stick on him and the fact that he allegedly fled to Cyprus does not help him much. So what is the difference between George Luft and me? I am not American and I will not do business with Iran. But as we are both optional couriers I am still in a much better place that he is (alas a very poor one for now). As such in the end we get “He is charged with eight counts, including failing to register as a foreign agent, evading oil sanctions, two counts of making false statements to investigators and three counts of illicit arms trafficking.” What is true? What is legal? What is unacceptable? That is for the courts to decide, but I reckon that George Luft as the head of a think tank was already making a fair amount of coins, so why endanger it all? I never get invited to US Energy Security Council conferences, so I am a little clueless at present. But it seems that America is seemingly still out to declaw whatever China does and at present I cannot say that they did anything do wrong, the courts will decide on George Luft. I look forward to seeing that evidence. In the meantime, my delusional side will dream of getting his 3.75%, as all delusional people do.

Enjoy the middle of the week. 

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July 12, 2023 · 02:13

One voice is still a voice

I made mention of this all over June. The production cuts that Saudi Arabia set out to do would have impact. Some called me stupid, most ignored the issue. Yet Bloomberg gives us ‘Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Cuts Are Quietly Starting to Bite’ (at https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-oil-production-cuts-105634851.html), as such you need to consider. Not merely that I was right. The larger setting is that this is only one week into the new amounts and it is starting to bite. So how will the setting of less oil be in a month time? And before you know it North America and Europe enter autumn with all the heat they require at that point. We are then given “Brent oil traded in London had been stuck around the $75-a-barrel mark for weeks. That shifted a little Friday, when the contracts rose to about $78, a level they have largely held at since.” A setting we get and understand, but as the supply landscape is redefined, that price cannot be held and I reckon that in a month time it will hit the $90 mark and after that it gets nasty in a hurry. And there is an additional quote that matters. We are given “In the latest move, at least two processors in Asia sought less from the Saudis for cargoes shipped next month, and another said it won’t take any cargoes after an unexpected price increase.” This sounds nice on paper, but when we have 15 processors al vying for the 1 million barrels out there, at least 5 will have no oil to process. It is simple math and at that point the item of sulphur content will not hold much water. And whilst people are shouting where is our oil, I see a group of people that forgot that Saudi Arabia is building a new refinery in China which will gobble up almost a million barrels a day and China who got the deal with a clause accepting that payments are in Yuan is slightly too happy and when Europe (America and Canada too) realise that the reduction in oil is permanent and that China is now in a stage with loads of oil to fuel their economy. That is the point when people realise that they are losing a lot more than they bargained for. If only the US hadn’t pissed of Elon Musk to the degree they had. Yet this is about oil and not about batteries. The simplest setting is that this ‘biting’ is happening after less than 2 weeks into the reductions. So what will be the case in 4 weeks? Is someone considering that Janet Yellen had a portfolio of begging prescriptions towards China? I have no idea where this will end, yet I remember the ‘carless Sundays’ in the Netherlands in 1973. We might have that soon enough and now all over Europe and optionally America too. In 1973 it was fun. I got to test my roller skates on the A27 (a Dutch highway) which extension past Hilversum was brand new and I got to test that tarmac and not a car in sight, good times. Yet now it will be different and I reckon that the economic image will change for a lot of nations. It will not be a simple ‘lets add some money we do not have’. Now several members of the EU will be waging some kind of personal war to get the oil they all need. And I gave fair warning around two years ago. And it was not rocket science, it was simply based on the old premise ‘do not bite the hand that feeds you’ and that is how the escalation wth the UK (and their CAAT) and the US with whatever premise they thought they had and now they all want oil that they are denied. It sucks to be them soon enough.

It might be quietly biting now, but in 4-8 weeks it will not be quiet and when Europe (as well as the US) enters winter that setting will not be a nice one.

Enjoy the almost middle of the week.

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April 21, 2023 · 23:29

What at first we don’t grasp

Yes, that is the setting we all face, even me. We don’t get everything, we don’t see everything and we don’t put it all together at a first notion. We think at times that the stage is clear, but it I not. It is made harder by a media that cannot be trusted, that relies on emotions and flames to get digital dollars and at times some of them merely keep silent for whatever reason. In this case (I checked today) according to Google Search, only Reuters and Arab News reported on this. You see, Pakistan has placed its first Russian oil order of 100,000 barrels a day. They did so because it is discounted oil and Pakistan does not have great oil reserves and it has 231 million people, as such for them discounted oil is essential, but that also means that Russia is now getting another flow of cash to prolong the war, more important, it might now have a long standing oil customer. You see, no matter how we feel, Pakistan does not care too much about Europe and more important, the war does not touch them. It feels indifferent, but business is indifferent. Business is what Pakistan needs for its people and its commerce and in this discounted oil matters a whole lot. So what do you think other nations will do? 

As such Arab News gives us “Pakistan has placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil under a new deal struck between Islamabad and Moscow, the country’s petroleum minister said, with one cargo to dock at Karachi port in May. The deal will see Pakistan buy crude oil only, not refined oil, and imports are expected to reach 100,000 barrels per day if the first transaction goes through smoothly, Minister Musadik Malik told Reuters on Wednesday night. “Our orders are in; we have placed that already,” he said.” We might be upset, be might get angry but we need to realise that Musadik Malik can make a case. He must look out for the needs of its country and in a commodity like oil, the discounted version matter a whole lot. People want to get angry, but why? When you get groceries, do you get the brand at $1.99 or the supermarket version at $1.29? Especially when you know that they come from the SAME factory? You feel happy that you saved $0.70 and took that from the factory mouth. I know it is not that simple, because the supermarket orders 10,000 packages to get that discount, but for the consumer it is a saving. So what happens when a nation can get a barrel at $10-$30 less? That is one to three million less and the Pakistani government pockets that savings and they are not the only one with a budget issue. 

Reuters had a photo telling us “People on motorcycles wait for their turn to get petrol at a petrol station in Karachi, Pakistan, November 25, 2021” and that is one queue, Pakistan has them at nearly every gas station, some of these people live from gas tank to gas tank and now the Pakistani government could offer it slightly cheaper. Reuters also give us “As a long-standing Western ally and the arch-rival of neighbouring India, which historically is closer to Moscow, analysts say the crude deal would have been difficult for Pakistan to accept, but its financing needs are great.” And they would be right. The larger issue is not merely how the Pakistani situation is, it is what other nations are in a similar stage, because that matters. When nations can save up to 20% they will take the deal, there I little doubt in my mind and when you explode in anger, just realise that plenty of AMERICAN corporations are still doing business with Russia, I see the list all over LinkedIn with some repetition. There is a website (at https://dontfundwar.com/directory/) were we see hundreds still doing business in Russia. Companies with EU or American origins, as such we need to act locally before we can demand anything international and lets be clear. This is not on Saudi Arabia, no on Venezuela or any other oil producing nation. This is the consequence of a global economy and we better realise that the larger picture is not set in emotion, it is set on cold hard cash and cold needs of board directors and shareholders. The funniest was Credit Suisse (well it was until UBS took over) “Stop new business in Russia while meaningfully cutting exposure by 56%” so in a bank, what is ‘new business’? And in all this what is ‘exposure’? Doing it without a marketing spin, or is there more? 

We might not grasp all elements, we might not see all the elements in play. The list for example does not expose the transitional partners that work via Asia, or Africa as such the question becomes how much scaling back was in place? For one company to stop dealing with Russia and some old granny does it via Sun City for that player is that scaling back? 

The media is all quiet about a lot of it and you get to wonder why. I reckon until someone exposes certain links then they will casually mention it on page 23 of the newspaper to cover their own asses and sone distant link on their website will mention it, well after you repair the accidental broken link. There are many reasons why some act how they do, but the simple reason is money and the revenue they are measured against. A war that impacts global economy is a dirty one. They all ignored the larger impact of Yemen because there was no linked global economy, the same was the case for Syria. Now in the Ukraine it is different and we see all kinds of issues pop up.

Enjoy your discounted meal (and day).

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March 16, 2023 · 18:07

Oh boy, there was more

It all started 4 days ago when I wrote ‘I honestly don’t get it’. I comprehended the stage just fine, it is the lack of comprehension of greed, what people will do to fill their own pockets at the expense of everything and everyone. You see Basel III was published in 2010 after the first meltdown, it was extended to 2015 with extensions going as far as January 2023. So 13 years and the whining bitches (aka banks) still will not learn. SVB is merely one example and the actions by congress made perfect sense. Now we have Credit Suisse and the setting changes.

It now needs (and apparently just received) 45 billion to be ‘secured’. This is a little more than the national budget of Qatar which is 53rd on a list of national budgets with 228 nations with on last place Wallis and Futuna. To give you a better picture, it is twice the amount Oman has for its citizens, they are in 68th position. They need THAT MUCH money. The issue is that big and do not talk to me about journalists or those clowns at the ICIJ. They are all about their Pandora papers and what a joke they are. 

You see, I stated in the first article the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) and now we see the BBC give us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64964881) giving us “After Credit Suisse shares plunged on Wednesday, a major investor – the Saudi National Bank – said it would not inject further funds into the Swiss lender”, it matters and I will get back to this. In the mean time The Guardian gives us “The bank had been forced to delay the publication of its annual report last week after a last-minute call from the US Securities and Exchange Commission relating to what Credit Suisse described as the “technical assessment” of revisions to cashflow statements going back to 2019. The bank said those discussions had now been concluded” I believe it is more, I personally believe that was why Yellen got involved in day one. I think the SVB and others have too many bonds and they are not ready to mature yet and with interest up these things are making banks bleed money and they are bleeding a lot. You see, there is an estimated total of TWENTY THREE THOUSAND BILLION DOLLARS in US government bonds floating around and I reckon the SVB and Credit Suisse are now in levels of pain, they had too many of those. As such the outstanding part, not merely these two represent $23,000,000,000,000 and no one can cover it they are all stretched beyond thin. This is what I expect is happening and I warned for this as early as 2016, there is a point of no return and the banks are way past that. Putting your IP in the USA is about to become one of the most expensive jokes tech firms have faced in well over half a century.

Could I be wrong?
Yes, that is the case, but that can be tested quite easily. You see, if you make a tally of where all these US government bonds were and you set that tally in a mineable solution especially with pre 2016 and past 2016 when Dodd-Frank got cancelled you will learn a few things and this is what I saw on day one, but weirdly enough the media is not going there (neither is the ICIJ), so you get to wonder why.

Oil in the family
now we get back to the Saudi National Bank. In this I agree with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Oil is a commodity, there is no cap, if you need oil more and more, you are working from the wrong business plan and if that relies on exceeding your budget by over 30 trillion dollars you get what’s coming to you. In addition I would add the Republican Party making small talk stating that they need to pull away from Ukraine, I lose the little sympathy I had left for them. The US has slammed Saudi Arabia again and again, in some cases with the assistance of a United Nations essay writer. There is only so much people will take. They had the option to help Saudi Arabia create a nations defence strategy, they bailed out and now China is there. They made fake promises and most were not kept and now we see banks asking Saudi Arabia (in Oliver Twist style) can we have some more please? 

As such we see event after event and now that things are on the rails, the train has speed and they just ran out of rails. This is early and before I expected it, but I never considered the impact of Russia being stupid and attacking the Ukraine, it merely escalated things. 

America has two options, does it become part of China or part of Russia. It seems that the Republicans want to be part of Russia, the rest I do not know, but we are now in the process of the final financial act. And my evidence? Investigate the CET1 setting of EVERY bank (especially the two in trouble) and then look at where the bonds are and how many of these bonds are/were with the SVB and Credit Suisse. I have no doubt they both have too many. Then consider Basel III and see how many banks hold up at that point. They were warned for 13 years, so let them rot, let them collapse and let the investors and share holders take the fall and live life in minimum wage. 

And in all this, too many of the media are all about flaming and not doing too much about it, merely pushing towards bailouts. That time has gone as I personally see it. 

All whilst the Australian Financial Review gives us a mere 45 minutes ago “The failure of Silicon Valley Bank has exposed fresh divisions on Capitol Hill over banking reform, as US lawmakers from both parties trade blame for the lenders’ collapse and squabble over future legislation to shore up the financial system” squabble on something that was shown 13 years ago. Still think I am wrong? 

Enjoy the money you have, there might be a lot less soon enough.

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February 27, 2023 · 05:35

On the subject of failure

Yes, it is a subject that we all face and no one (including me) is happy about it. We all face it in one form or another. I saw an event that could play out later this year, somewhere optionally between July and September and I was not happy on how I showed myself. How I responded, no matter how honest I was, at that moment, I saw something I never felt happy about, but no matter how valid the response was, it does not mean that I am happy that I responded in that way. It was not about finding another way to say it, it merely went on about something that does not matter now. It applies to some degree to what this is about, because it made me check news sources and in this I decided on the article (at https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-director-bill-burns-china-russia-lethal-aid/). The CBS News article gives us ‘CIA confirms possibility of Chinese lethal aid to Russia’ and when I read it, I saw something different, it was not related to the earlier part, but it changed the way I looked at that news. We are given “In an exclusive interview with CBS News, CIA Director Bill Burns confirmed the possibility that China may send lethal aid to Russia in its war against Ukraine. “We’re confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment,” Burns told “Face the Nation” moderator Margaret Brennan on Friday.” We are also given “I think the Chinese are also trying to weigh the consequences of, you know, what the concerns we’ve expressed are, you know, about providing lethal equipment”, this comes from CIA Director William Burn and that is fine. I am not debating that part, but when you consider what is behind it, it is a different stage. You see Russia is close the broke on a few levels and the only way that Russia can pay for this (as China would prefer it) is via massively reduced oil. Oil China needs and Russia cannot sell it to their former largest buyers. Yet behind all this is more. The logistics of the Russian armed forces are a mess. Their soldiers are ineffective, their hardware is failing on many levels and their supply systems are (from my point of view) broken in many ways. Russia has a problem. It needs drones, it needs missiles and it needs hardware that soldiers can use, Russia is falling short on several fronts and it is losing against the 21st largest army in the world. We all have seen Ukrainian achievement reports in several languages on several sources and they seemingly align. Russia could mobilise its armies, but the hardware issues remain and that could push the Russian armed forces in a direction it does not want to go, not in this stage. To give some slight reference. Russia lost more people in this war in one year than the UK and France combined lost in WW2 over the entirety of the war. In one year lost more soldiers than the UK and France lost over the entire world war, they are doing THAT bad. So now they need upgrades in hardware and that is what Russia is seemingly angling for. But I reckon that China is only considering a limited list and the payments are due in oil and upfront. Which would give them millions of barrels in extra oil, oil they need and I reckon they will get it for an apple and an egg. 

But when you think this through we could optionally deduce a lot more. You see that oil can then not be used to heat Russian houses, fuel power and fuel mobility. In addition it would be a first direct proof that the Russian Army has no place to go, or at least not operational. If it was merely missiles the issue would be small (except for the Ukraine), I am speculating that it is about a lot more, even if we accept that Russia is sending troops with 40 year old ammunition. 

The fact that they cannot do this with a renewed offensive is up on the wall and now we see how deployment and supply lines are on the front issues. If they cannot get supplies they will need to acquire them and China is nearly the only option and that is merely the beginning of the issue. Thee news has shown enough issues with soldiers personal gear and debatable mobile hardware (tanks and other things requiring wheels). This is not the stage of some new tanks, this is about the refurbished T-72 tanks that are almost 50 years old, implying that whatever anti tank comes their way will slice through their armour like a hot knife through butter and that is if the refurbishments were properly done, which in light of several issues is now a matter for debate. If Russia stages this war with its regular armies (if they can find them) Those armies will be ill equipped and ill prepared. A lesson France learned in 1812 the hard way and now Russia gets to learn that very same lesson. But is it all true? I am speculating, but I believe that I am in a stage of presumption because I do know how in parts this field is set. And the lesson is not over, not for the Russians and not for me either. Because there are many debates on what was real, I need to wonder how reliable the information I have is. I believe that I made enough sidesteps to alternate sources of information so that I believe that I am on the right track, but that too is not properly vetted information, so there could be gaps. Yet overall the news is still valid. If Russia needs China it means that they were never ready for any real combat and they were never prepared with the hardware they had, or they wouldn’t need China’s hardware. It could be a Russian ploy, but I do not think so, if that was the case the CIA would have come with a very different presentation, of that I am very certain.

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February 21, 2023 · 00:43

The new rulings

This is change of scenery. This is not about who is in charge, even as we did set that stage, but the stage where we prefer to live. You see, the US is soon becoming a dangerous place to live, as its infrastructures are collapsing, as its debt is over-towering to such an extent that within three years the interest on that debt alone is close to 50% of all collected taxes. A stage that was visible for decades, but no one wanted to overhaul tax systems and now the rule of debt is due and the US has no solution (other than sell of its IP) and now we get a new stage, the stage we admired through the 50’s and 60’s and the US is no longer the main player. 

The new stage is seen (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230219-muslims-react-to-plans-for-new-kabaa-development-in-saudi-capital/) where we are given ‘Muslims react to plans for ‘new Kaaba’ development in Saudi capital’ and lets be clear, this is nothing to sneer at. This has NEVER been done before.

We are given “On Thursday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) announced the launch of the New Murabba Development Company, which aims to develop “the world’ largest modern downtown in Riyadh”. The project will see the redevelopment of Riyadh’s historic Al-Murabba (“The Square”) neighbourhood, which was said to be named after a square-shaped well from which the area derived its name.” And that is merely the beginning. The building will be 400 by 400 by 400 metres making it one of the largest ever build (if we ignore the line). The second building which is taking the architectonical cake. More important what happens when a building of THAT size is covered in solar paint? It could make it the first building to be carbon negative in history. There are so many other settings that need consideration, but the overbearing case is not merely what Saudi Arabia is achieving, it will soon be about how the US (and the EU) have not been able to do anything near it for over a decade and they will not be able to do something anywhere near it for decades to come. The trendsetters achieve, the rest merely watches the options go by and with the debts the US and EU are in that is what it amounts to, they are watching options pass by. 

There is a lot more to this, but that is for another day. No matter how we slice it, Saudi Arabia is now on the architectonical forefront of the world for pretty much the timespan of 2020-2050, that is the consequence of debt driven nations. We tried to all tell you, but you did not want to listen, so now the most major achievements over the next decade will be held in Saudi Arabia, now if we could do something about Iran’s nuclear hunger that would be nice too. I already submitted my idea for Iranian nuclear meltdown solutions, but that is not up to me to do, I might give it to Israel as well, just for jollies.

But the deeper truth is not that Saudi Achieving all this, it will soon become on how Iran will react and make no mistake, it is equally important. As Saudi Arabia rises, Iran falls deeper into economic holes and there is no way that their nuclear options are set to friendly needs, you do not need uranium to pure needs that Iran is making them, that level of purity is only needed for war, so when will someone wake up to that issue? Or is the US awake and they wait for the first bomb (either in Israel or on Saudi Soil) to explode before they put their foot down? No matter how you slice that, it will be much too late for that. As I see it, when that become clear the Saudi government can cut their oil deliveries to the EU and US and sell it all to China. That part was clear, was it not? Saudi Arabia is waking up to the project the US (and EU) dreamt of half a century ago and now Saudi Arabia is making them a reality showing the world that we have been watching the wrong channels for too long a time. Did you realise that?

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January 23, 2023 · 00:08

A national consequence

I saw the news earlier, but I had to consider a few things, one of them not so really pro-Turkey, another set to the stage of me wondering what was going on. It all started with the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64360528) where we are given ‘Turkey condemns ‘vile’ Sweden Quran-burning protest’, and as I was wondering what was going on I saw “Rasmus Paludan, a politician from the far-right Stram Kurs”, it made me wonder what was needed. And then it occurred to me, why was Turkey the only one protesting? What if Egypt, the UAE, Iraq, optionally Iran, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Turkey all combined their protest? What if the EU had to deal with retributions from the OPEC nations closing the oil tap a little (500K barrels a day less for the EU), the other nations stopping import of Danish and Swedish goods? Would that wake them up? We might think that a person like Rasmus Paludan can insult islam again and again, but why allow it? We have rules and laws on religious prosecution, religious discrimination and should it end there? What if we make anti religious protests that continue to insult a religion (like burning a Quran) as well. Perhaps we need to state that they need to burn bibles as well, how does that go over?

I cannot claim that I have any solution here, but the levels of inactions that I see against Rasmus Paludan are getting out of hand. As such I think inaction becomes a larger issue and there is actually no real option, so what happens when the EU gets a 10% fuel rise, does that wake them up? I do not care what religion you like, and what religion you hate, but if you go as far as openly insulting that religion things get out of hand and it becomes time to act, inaction is no longer acceptable. If you allow a chaos and hatred seeder like Rasmus Paludan to continue, I reckon you get whatever is coming to you. I personally believe that when civility goes missing to this degree nations have failed on several levels. That whilst we need to realise that Sweden has 5%-10% Muslims, that is up to a million, Denmark has roughly the same percentage size, in numbers it is about half that size, but the population of Denmark is about 50% smaller. When you go out to insult that size of a population there needs to be consequences and even as people like Rasmus Paludan think that it is merely up to 10%, so that they can easily win such fights, they need to consider that there is a larger consequence and that needs to be shown to that kind of people and I reckon that Turkey alone cannot do that, it might block NATO access for Sweden, but a larger lesson needs to be taught and that is where OPEC comes in, where the bulk of its population is Muslim, so what happens when the tap is closed even just a little? For Sweden with its shortages it might become disastrous quickly, I am not sure about Denmark at present. 

Do we need to act? Yes, we all need to act. We cannot let people like Rasmus Paludan to spread hatred to the degree they do, the consequences are too dire to consider, as such I reckon it is time to fight such hatred by letting these nations be overwhelmed by shortages and make sure that everyone knows WHY this was done. You see if you hate muslims THAT much, you can get the oil from Russia or Venezuela or America. But that gets you into other deep waters, does it not? No matter how it plays out, we are too far beyond the levels of inaction we see now and consider that OPEC could close the tap by 1 million barrels of oil a day, or more. What does that give you? Not much and until summer that impact might end up being disastrous.

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