Tag Archives: tariff

The nature of things

It was about to weeks ago that I wrote ‘Regarding that joke’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/04/19/regarding-that-joke/). In that article I wrote “A setting we all saw coming (even though the media seems to ignore this and merely keeps on shouting tax the rich) and the interested parties who are supposed to keep the people informed are merely shouting that Haley Joel Osment was intoxicated instead of working on the news, the media is pretty much on the discarded bundle of wannabe news”, as well as “As one source told me (and others) “China could theoretically weaponise the US Treasury holdings – by dumping it – meaning that it would sell off treasury holdings for less than they are worth. By doing so, China would then, because of the amount it owns, devalue the US dollar” so what happens when the dollar gets devaluated to this degree?” That was two weeks ago. In the meantime “Trump had demanded of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that Japan eliminate its $70 billion trade surplus with the US. He claimed it would be easy. He repeated the demand during April 16 negotiations in DC. In response to all this, Japan tried to placate Trump, refused to cooperate with other nations suffering similar abuse, and asked for special exemptions for Japan at the expense of others. In fact, one of the reasons Trump chose Japan for the first round of trade talks was his belief that Tokyo would cave within a few weeks, thereby inducing others to do likewise.” (Source: several). Yesterday I thought I saw water burn (which is pretty freaky to say the least). Axios (merely one source) gives us ‘Japanese finance minister says selling U.S. bonds a “card on the table”’ with the yowza response “Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country’s $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a “card on the table” in trade talks, The Associated Press reported.” Talking about the tiger that feeds himself with your hand, and the added text becomes “Japan is one of the five largest U.S. trading partners, as well as a rock-solid ally in the region, so there was some surprise when the U.S. hit the country with a 24% reciprocal tariff in early April.” And now Japan puts the US bonds they have on the table and with more than one trillion in hand they could flood the market and push the dollar straight over the edge. If that happens no run on the bank will save people and America cannot come up with that much money to feed the hungry vultures, as such America now has a massive problem and it is not China pushing the cart, it is Japan itself who will not go gently into that good night. So on one hand we see “As U.S. Treasuries sold off last month and yields spiked, there was speculation foreign governments might be dumping bonds”, as well as “J.P. Morgan Private Bank, in a research note last week, said there were signs of foreign selling pressure, but from private holders, as opposed to governments “weaponizing” their holdings” which is fun as my blog article preceded the two by one week, so its not merely a sign of the day time reference, the planet moved 89,292 kilometers in the time that lapsed between me writing the blog and J.P. Morgan Private Bank coming to that same conclusion (it’s actually nice to use NASA metrics to make a case). All that and AP News giving us (at https://apnews.com/article/japan-treasurys-trump-tariffs-44b9b37bf7a290701201322f69bade2e) yesterday ““It does exist as a card, but I think whether we choose to use it or not would be a separate decision,” Kato said during a news show on national broadcaster TV Tokyo. Kato did not elaborate and he did not say Japan would step up sales of its holdings of U.S. government bonds as part of its talks over President Donald Trump’s tariffs on exports from Japan.”” The words from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to live by I say and when you combine this with the article I wrote two days ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/05/02/saudi-arabia-goes-hiragana/) ‘Saudi Arabia goes Hiragana’ where we see that Japan basically has a way out to prevents its economy to become scuttled as well. As such the noose around its economical neck is diverted to a working solution. As I see it, America now gets that additional noose around its neck to double the efforts of the economy strangling itself (what a security measure). 

As the grand vizier of Agrabah (in Aladdin) states “The idea has merit”, get economical advice from a Disney character? Oh, kill me now (I is havening to be laughing out loud at present) or as Monty Python states: ‘Howls of deriving laughter’ are mine and the tears are falling over my cheeks. I haven’t laughed this hard since my fathers funeral.

So this must be the most original way that a politician ever shoot its own foot

Americans might not be laughing as this is actually is devastatingly serious. The (as some call it) bully tactics are now starting to bite back and the bigwigs in Wall Street will be seriously moving assets with an additional passports to zero tax nations, perhaps one that also doesn’t have an extradition treaty with America. So if any of those get plane tickets out of America (people like Jerome Powell or Alan Greenspan), you get the idea. When people take that move, the setting is all over for America, there will be no more moves to make. And these people have been ‘diversifying’ their income for decades. They moved small amounts around the planet and they could survive on their millions and they might vacate their consultancy firm from Davos in the Desert to Davos, Switzerland (a mere example). So they were ready from the get go and with this situation they might have larger consultancy jobs in several nations (including Switzerland, Monaco and the UAE). So these people will just vacate Idiotville as some call it (that place between Canada and Mexico) as quick as their Beechcraft Premier can carry them. No lines, no waiting.

So, will Japan do this? I reckon it will depend on who controls President Trump, because as I see it, the man is basically a loose canon at present and with that level of knee jerks the financial world is pretty hesitant and frightened on what he might do next. That’s is basically what I personally see.

A setting that is a lot less nice than my weird personal dream I had on Friday involving a mall, a coffeeshop and me meeting Matt Damon and Ridley Scott (seeking a replacement voice for someone with a perfect Dutch accent), the weird snoozes and snores I tend to have.

The nature off things that we embrace, some will walk the path away from bully tactics, some are on the market for having financial independence and some are about getting out of the line of fire (or a location about to get carpet bombed). Whatever we do, we look out for number one (ourselves) and optionally (read: preferably)with improved comfort levels. What that is tends to differ from person to person and in the words of the great man Tony Curtis (Operation Petticoat) “In confusion, there is profit” a very acceptable stage for a lot of people with a calculating nature. 

So have a great day and enjoy your coffee today (I had mine with a cookie this morning).

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N is for?

That is what I saw yesterday. Nintendo. I remember the Switch presentation and that was awesome and as I predicted, it overtook 3 yeas of Microsoft in a mere 14 months. At present they have sold over 150 million consoles, which is 500% of the Microsoft consoles sold, which also represents twice the amount of the Sony Playstation 5. That’s innovation at work, that is pure gamers joy. And now (say yesterday) they introduced the new console, the Switch 2 and it was pure joy to see buckets of innovation added to a great console. Its almost like watching the evolution of Playstation 1 to Playstation 2 all over again. I feel so giddy at present.

Let that not be the stopping power of wannabe reviewers with YouTube headlines like ‘Nintendo Switch 2 Is Disappointing’, ‘Nintendo Switch 2 Hands-on: An Exciting, Costly Sequel’ or ‘Nintendo Just Confused Everyone With The Switch 2’, these voices don’t matter. First off the presentation was clear. Three executives showed the Nintendo Switch 2 clearly and gave us buckets of innovation. First there is the chat button, where you can chat in the game with friends, or out of the game with friends. For parents there is a parental control for younger player, so they thought of almost everything. You can group chat in game (like Mario Kart World), every friend (up to 4) their own character and pose at times together for the in game picture. Then if you decide to include the camera (extra accessory) you can appear in the game at the bottom with audio, which has been given the option to reduce noise, so just the voice comes through. Clarity in its best form. As a Sony lover I am sad that they are overtaken by Nintendo and that trend will continue only with a much larger gap between Sony and Nintendo but that is the effect of true innovation and I am not sad for one second. I have my Switch 1 next to my PS5 and that is fine. 

So why is that good?
Because in 2002 Nintendo gave me Metroid Prime, an action adventure for the GameCube and now 23 years later that same game (remastered on Nintendo Switch) still gives me the buzz. It is gaming perfection and it still gives me chills to see these worlds, designed for a 40 MB memory system with a smaller drive system then either Sony or Microsoft had. It relied on on cards with a max of 32GB, which is still a lot more than a DVD. Now it gives us twice that on the game cards (up to 64GB) and the Switch 2 comes with 256GB of storage, a lot more than the predecessor. And that is before you consider the added settings of joy cons that can now be used as a mouse as well. The joy cons will now attach magnetically so there is no no sliding and the allows for in game changing as I see it. They also have a larger screen (7.9-in LCD screen, 1080p up to 120 Hz with HDR10 and VRR), but there is more. When you play it in the dock on the TV, 4K becomes possible (4K at 60 Hz via HDMI with HDR10 and VRR). All powerful innovations. And then Digital Foundry also gave me the setting “The Nintendo Switch 2 will apparently be able to handle Unreal Engine 5. Full article with Digital Foundry podcast with their source.” That means that my solution will now also with on Switch 2 giving them a handle on 50 million additional consoles, in a direction they never considered, sorry for the Amazon Luna, but first on in gets the jewelry. That is the power of innovation.

There is of course more, but I only have seen ‘clips’ for that and we get the setting that there is a lot more to have and Nintendo pulled it off, as I see it, Nintendo is about to become the king of gaming in several fields and Sony has its challenge ahead of them, because the Nintendo outsold the Playstation 2:1, so Playstation needs to look the other was (away from Microsoft) and focus on what Nintendo is bringing us in 8 weeks. I reckon that it will be possible for Nintendo to beat the first Switch and get up to 200 million consoles sold, which beats the Nintendo DS (154 million) and defeat all time rules PlayStation 2 with over 160 million sold, Nintendo Switch 2 is about to crunch records. I reckon that they will get there in under 2 years. Because that gives them Christmas 2025 and Christmas 2026 to beat these records and by what I saw in the presentation that will be very much possible. So, is there a downside? Yes, a minimal one. You see the Switch 2 requires the microSD Express card, the old one will not work. It is a minimal negative one especially as you consider all the extras you get right off the bat.

So I reckon that these bad boys will drop in price as well, because with 200 million more clients, prices drop fast. So whilst the world minus America gets to enjoy the Switch 2, America gets to grind their teeth, that is also the effect of tariffs, on the upside I just gave Nintendo the idea where they can get 50 million more systems sold. Oh and there is the one element I left out, the price. It is stated to be £395.99 (I used the UK price to not confuse the different dollar prices). That loser consoles (Microsoft) is still £479.99, the PS5 is £379.99 and the PS5pro is £699. So Nintendo did a great job giving us so much innovation at a competitive price. As a giggle I offer how Microsoft is setting the GamePass setting whilst most of the gamers in the world will go towards the Switch 2 pillar with their Nintendo eShop. 

So whilst America will go insanely jealous and negative on the Nintendo, they can blame the guy at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20500, United States for that setting. There is no reason why Nintendo needs to accept 10% tariff whilst the world is willing to accept the Nintendo right of the bat. That too is the game of gaming. 

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The one does not imply the other

We have seen the news on tariffs, we have seen the news on DeepSeek and it has exploded the views on LinkedIn as every influencer wants to cash in on the news on DeepSeek, in one way or another.

However, we forgot about one part. We forgot that we still have a nation called Ukraine that is at war with Russia. Some time ago we saw that Russia is unable to fight this war alone, so they called in the help of North Korea. We all saw them being proud as peacocks marching in unison and it looks impressive to almost any soldier and their generals. Yet the reality is different. We are given (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjder8zgk48o) ‘Ukraine says North Koreans may have pulled out of front line’, my first thought was “Is it merely a regrouping tactic?” That happens. We can on the offense, we can select defense or we can evade. Evasion makes sense after the losses reported, but evasion towards what? Regrouping, or pulling out. Regrouping makes more sense to me. 

The BBC reports “Western officials told the BBC that, out of some 11,000 troops sent from North Korea to fight for Russia, 1,000 had been killed in just three months.” A setting that boils down to decimation of ones troops. This is not surprising, as war is a lot different from parades. But decimation is a serious setting. It amounts to the knowledge that most opponents could do serious damage to the North Korean army. So whilst it might bolster 1.3 million active troops. A decent skirmish could cost that army 130,000 troops and that is merely in the first three months. The larger setting is that Russia mistook parade strength in actual battle strength and that is just not the case. The Ukrainians know that and also realize that the fight is not yet over, more important the smudge they delivered will also soil Kim Jong Un and he does not take kindly to get soiled. I reckon that the regroup comes with the message that they better be successful or not come back at all. This is the setting of desperation and desperate soldiers are a lot more dangerous. I am inclined to believe the quote “The newspaper quoted US officials as saying the withdrawal may not be a permanent one, and the soldiers could return after receiving additional training or after the Russians come up with new ways of deploying them to avoid such heavy casualties.” The BBC gave us. There is every chance that they will get reinforcements from Pyongyang and the clear message to succeed or do not come back alive.

That last part is speculation bordering on presumption, yet with the facade we have seen with President Putin and Supreme leader Kim Jong Un my view seems to be a decently accurate one. My biggest worry is how much damage will Ukraine get in the coming year, because this is not over, not even close and unless Russia is given a truckload of damage, this will not end. Hence my two inventions that could have woken up DARPA with the intent that they test the ‘contraptions’ before handing it to Ukraine. As such I created something to block ports (a sneaky stealth system) and smelting to meltdown nuclear reactors. If the ones in South Russia stop working that army loses a lot of power (and heating) setting the Russian army to a stand still, should places like the Port of Olya gets stopped to utilize troops and materials for the front the reinforcement setting fall short. I saw that the solution is less effective in Odessa as it is a much more spread but part of the harbor could be blocked, the Nuclear reactor solution has a few question marks and both inventions were designed to aid Saudi Arabia and take Iran out of the equation. But they work on Russian principles as such it should work for both. 

Yet, this is not about me, it never was. People don’t consider the larger window. When a near defeated President Putin runs to North Korea for help, what more will he do? Consider that he mobilizes all his troops and North Korea does theirs. Do you think South Korea will be overlooked? The larger setting is that should (being the operative word) be successful, the pressure on Japan grows immensely. Do you think that any dictator (sorry I meant supreme leader) will simply stop at one win? Do you think Ukraine is enough for President Putin? It is this the shallowness how some people think?

The reality is quite different. They see that losses are a mere hinder block to more and they both want more, they both are on the verge of seeing the loss of basic necessities in their countries and they realize that they are now on borrowed time, they both are. They need a decent win to ‘depart’ the scene with the honor of victory and that is where we currently stand. Russia and North Korea never counted on the tenacity of Zelensky and his troops. So where will this go? That depends on the support the Ukrainian troops receive in the near future and that is where we come in, preferably as soon as possible. 

Have a great day in supposedly peaceful resolution.

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