Tag Archives: Russia

December 2, 2022 · 19:04

Would you like some sugar with that?

I got a message yesterday which I initially ignored. Nothing wrong with the message, but I can only go to so many places in an hour and this message stretched me too thin, as such I let it be. Yet this morning I had a few moments so I checked out the message from Defense One. It gave me ‘US Trying to Persuade More Allies to Send NASAMS Missiles to Ukraine, Raytheon CEO Says’ (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/12/exclusive-us-trying-persuade-more-allies-send-nasams-missiles-ukraine-raytheon-ceo-says/380382/) the thing triggered something, but I did not exactly know what was triggered. I thought I knew, but it was too far into the past for that to make sense. Yet the article set me straight. Initially we might see “U.S. officials are working to broker a deal with NATO and Middle Eastern nations to send some of their NASAMS interceptors to Ukraine, Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes said Thursday”, it did not help me much and “the Pentagon awarded Raytheon a contract for the first two NASAMS batteries. The company delivered the interceptors within six weeks, Hayes said, because it had many parts on hand and because Doug Bush, the Army’s top weapons buyer, helped speed things along.” So I had to seek out more information and there the other cog fell to the floor. NASAMS or Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System is the child of the Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) and there the cog felt. It is a system from 1980. Kongsberg is led by Eirik Lie (weird name for an honest person). And there my defence knowledge partially kicked in. I knew of it, but that is about all I had. The Norwegians had designed the system to replace two Nike Hercules facilities in defending Norway’s southern air bases, where it would act in conjunction with F-16s in providing a layered defence, and that it did very well. I reckon that the engineers are proud as peacocks that this system can go to town on Russian missile systems 42 years later, there is no replacement for true innovation. I always said it and here you see it. OK, it was upgraded to a third version in 2019, but still it was tailored to a good design. And now we see Raytheon seeking assistance (of a sort). Here is also the problem I see. If manufacturing is a hard part, there are two sides to helping out now. What if this was Russias plan all along? What happens when Finland, the Netherlands, Spain, Oman, and Chile ship what they can ‘spare’ and a week later Spain and the Netherlands feel the brunt of running low on stock? I am not saying that this will happen, but the steps of Russia have to a larger extent not made sense and the pro-Russian coalition of the Dutch FvD will use that setting to every extent and that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 

An alternative could be to assist Saudi Arabia with their 2030 goals and create a NASAM production facility there. If distributed manufacturing is a solution, creating an additional pool of manufacturers would become essential. In addition, the US and EU need every positive vibe they can muster as such the option has two benefits. Adding these solutions to Germany, Sweden, Denmark and France make perfect sense as well. When that happens we see five additional manufacturers, but that is not a short term solution, Ukraine needs missiles now and 2 years is too long. Yet with 5 additions, 2 years would be shrunk to 13-15 months, already a large saving. Now sending part of the needed missiles makes sense as there would be 5 additional creators. I see the simple setting that resources are required, then we see the manufacturing and after that shipping. The last part has plenty of options, the first two less so, although we can see that manufacturing is the bottleneck, Russia will soon see that if these 5 nations unite, Russia will end up having less and less options. And that is before we consider alternatives, You see Iceland has only 4% unemployment, but it might be reason to create another plant on the US base there (or next to it) which could create up to 2500 jobs. As such we see six options, is it a solution? I honestly do not know, but when the waiting list is two years something needs to give and it would be nice to see this before Russia gets to be creative with their missiles, ask Poland how that worked for them. The EU (US too) needs to act now, but merely getting others to send what they have might not be the safest path, not with current timelines. That is how I see it and if someone says I am wrong, I will not deny that my idea was completely ‘ad hoc’ and it would require scrutiny, but what would you do when you get told that anti-missile solutions are two years away? Especially when you consider what Russia is doing to the civilian population of Ukraine?

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 29, 2022 · 15:04

You are not Tom Cruise

I was confronted with an article on ABC (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-28/daniel-duggan-held-under-restrictive-conditions-in-prison/101705510) We see the emotions, we see the indications. But there is a side that ABC is avoiding. The former Marine pilot Daniel Edmund Duggan has a problem, I cannot say if it is due to himself or not. Yet an explanation is required, the ABC was not giving it to you. You see we might all dream of becoming another Tom Cruise, being a fighter pilot and roaming the skies. The smallest of all groups get there, it might be a slightly larger group than those dreaming of becoming an astronaut, but not by much. We want to fly the beast machines, be the beast with Jennifer Connolly (Paul Bettany got that winning ticket) and be a scoundrel of the skies. We all (including me) have had that dream. But there is another side. When you become that one person you also are given unrestricted access to the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and its $26.2 billion in Intellectual property and the US need to keep it under wraps as much as possible. I do not think that they will allow for a person like Daniel Edmund Duggan or any other person for that matter to hand over IP and IP related knowledge that is owned by the United States Defence department. That side the ABC left untouched. Now, in court that will require evidence and the chance of $26,200,000,000 getting handed over to China is not what the US (or its allies) will react kindly to. Now, there is no evidence that $26 billion will be handed over, but in the same setting if a pilot like Daniel Edmund Duggan hands over knowledge to an ally, the US will grudgingly stand still, when it goes to a US appointed adversarial like Russia or China, the US will NOT stand by. I get it, what I do not get is that the ABC left you in the dark and merely focusses on “Mr Miralis said it was unprecedented to have an Australian citizen with no criminal history placed on inmate restrictions akin to people who had been convicted of terrorist offences and multiple homicides” Well, we accept that and the Lawyer needs to give a best defence, but the stage is that China is recruiting and it is recruiting people like Duggan and there are billions at stake. It is not handing over the specs, it is handing over the weaknesses of any US aircraft he has ever flown, all the knowledge, via brother pilots he got access to. There is a definite risk for the US, I get that and as it was American IP, Duggan definitely has a problem. If he was in the US it might not have gone that far initially, but he became Australian, as such there is an issue and ABC should have told you that. The fact that he worked in China does not help any. It does not matter if what he did was completely unrelated or harmless. He had access to top secret information on US airplanes and ABC did not inform you, there is something called balanced and we get it, there are moments where we are less than balanced, but to leave such a large setting out of the equation is rather dumb, but that might be my take on the setting.

I have no idea how this works out, but people better figure out that there is a new storm brewing and when it hits it will hit to a much larger degree. The US is pretty much bankrupt, it has no exit strategy to get rid of 30,000 billion (30 trillion) in debt and things are getting worse. Soon the US treasury will depend on whatever IP they have and reduction of values of such nature will not go over well and these people signed papers, not unlike the official secrets act. I did not, so I can inform you on the simple fact that Director Richard Moore of MI-6 is now 59 years old and 347 days younger than me, so there! 

Alas, Daniel Edmund Duggan had to sign such a piece of paper when he became a US Marine Pilot. That is what is getting him into the proverbial hot waters.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 25, 2022 · 12:48

The stage of two parties

That is the setting today. It started yesterday, but I have a few other concerns. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63731751) gives us ‘Meta claims US military link to online propaganda campaign’, in the first I would state ‘So what?’ You might think that this is the wrong detail, yet the Russians are doing it, China is doing it, several nations are engaging in this way and that is all before we consider the trolls with dubious third party needs. So when I see “The campaign was the first major covert pro-US propaganda operation taken down by a big-tech company, independent researchers said in August.” I see the implications that big-tech companies are presently not acting on Russian and Chinese activities. But that is merely my point of view. So when we are given “On Facebook, 39 accounts, 16 pages, and two groups were removed, as well as 26 accounts on Instagram, for violating the platforms’ policy against “coordinated inauthentic behaviour”.” I wonder how many actions were taken against stake holders with anti-Saudi sentiments. The fact that places like Twitter have given ‘refuge’ to thousands of trolls acting under the nose of Jack Dorsey all whilst the media ignored that part is still a debate for another day. One might not be another but Meta and Tweets have at times some levels of connectivity, the problem is to identify these hybrid accounts and I get it, it is not easy, not easy at all.

And to look at the math, when we see “39 accounts, 16 pages, and two groups were removed”, Which is interesting as one source gives us “We see it in the thousands of fake profiles of celebrities on Facebook and Twitter, with some successfully misleading others into thinking they’re genuine profiles. Nevertheless, identity theft can turn into a serious offence depending on what is done with the fake profile.” And how many of these fake accounts have been removed? In all this those 39 accounts come across as a bit of a joke. I get it, they are all about the essential true form, but the victims of several other stuff aren’t found. That is not entirely the fault of Meta, but there is a question on where their priorities lie. When we see (last September) ‘Troll farms reached 140 million Americans a month on Facebook before 2020 election, internal report shows’, as such the 39 accounts become a bit of a joke. Don’t you agree?

Anyway, the second part is all about me. I struck out three times, so to test the water within a month (as a personal Christmas cheer), I will put the entire idea for six billion in revenue out here as public domain and I will let you decide how delusional I am. On the plus side, when I publish and it becomes PD, the stage will change by a lot. In the first on how Amazon and Google let 6 billion fade onto public domain and if they try to mine it, a lot of questions will enter the open spaces. How one man, one ignored man saw what no one else saw and I have the additional home run with Kingdom Holding who had 0.6 billion in revenue let 6 billion annual slip (and that was merely the first phase). I reckon that a person like Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal will have some questions.

But that I my sense of humour, if I can’t have my retirement, I will make sure that all other will look increasingly stupid. It is my right to do so.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

November 23, 2022 · 21:35

Oil in the family

This is not exactly new, it is a stage that evolved in the last week. To see that we need to take a look at ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) which hands us (at https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/opec-production-cut-has-washington-questioning-the-value-of-its-saudi-alliance/) a mere three weeks ago ‘OPEC production cut has Washington questioning the value of its Saudi alliance’, in itself the question is not invalid. Every nation assesses its value towards services delivered, but in that same stage, the direction can be inverted and as such the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is questioning the value that the United States brings to the table. President Biden asked to make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud a pariah. It has stopped deliveries of defence equipment to the KSA all whilst the KSA was under attack by terrorist forces who were receiving aid from Iran. And when we see “Critics of the OPEC decision say it will increase the price of oil at a time when US consumers are already feeling the impact of high energy prices. A higher oil price will also provide a significant boost to Russia’s struggling economy.” All whilst the US exports 90% of its oil, as such they are sitting pretty as well. But the article does not mention that, it is increasingly one sided. Then we get the second setting and it is seen with “Saudi Arabia has lost much of its prestige and is in damage control to rebuild its image internationally and shore up its relations with the US. To reset the relationship in Washington, Saudi-backed lobbyists have spent millions of dollars. Biden responded by visiting Saudi Arabia, presumably as a gesture of goodwill and to attempt some recalibration.” It is the ‘lost much of it prestige’, by what standard? The KSA gained massive silent prestige with Neom and the line, two stages never seen before and the US has nothing in opposition to that. It will be relying on the coattails of Saudi achievements for the next 20 years. A nation that is so broke it cannot fix its support structures, and that all before we see the damage the ultra right is making in the US. And where is the so called hypocritical ‘honest’ media? When did you see any clear article on the line or Neom? The mainstream media is steering clear of it, no doubt due to the (my speculative view) word from stakeholders. 

This is in contrast to the Vox a week ago where we see “Biden “wants to be able to reevaluate in a methodical, strategic, effective way,” clarified national security adviser Jake Sullivan, “rooted in his fundamental interest in making sure that the relationship the United States has with Saudi Arabia serves the American people effectively.” Sullivan in essence suggested that things so far had not been going well.” We see this (at https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/17/23423031/why-america-cant-seem-to-quit-saudi-arabia), it is showing us a stage set. We are given “Now that the Biden administration re-evaluates its approach a third time, will it come to a new conclusion? It will be tough to change much. The US, after all, relies on the kingdom as a major oil producer and economic power with important shipping lanes, a close partner in countering Iran and terrorist organisations, and a significant trading partner and number-one purchaser of US weapons.” But that stage is not entirely true, that WAS the stage, but as China moved in, we see a spiralling US economy. Lets not give food to the speculator’s there. China increased exports and services to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 24 billion in 2019 to 30 billion in 2021, some views give us that it is now approaching 33 billion and as Neom and the Line grows, China will gain more. That is 9 billion the US and Europe lost, more importantly China is now getting more oil and the talks implying that Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan gives us the indication that this will not halt any day soon, it also implies that the US is partially done for. Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that. I personally do not care, I warned the US and the UK that there will be a price to pay soon enough and I made that prediction in 2020, now that this is about to happen, President Biden can play its games and let the media decide how much they hate the KSA and Muslims, or he can fold the game. The UK with its CAAT is in a similar position. They had the upper hand towards 2-3 billion in weapon sales, predominantly the Typhoon, now that money is most likely to go towards the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, China will be extending its arms for extended services towards Saudi Arabia.

The players wanting to keep Saudi Arabia on some kind of leash are now forced to fold their game. They lost to China and the damage is increasing. It is a fair assessment that the Russian – Ukrainian stage did not help, but that is how the cookie crumbles at times. As some stakeholders encouraged anti Saudi sentiments, they forgot that they weren’t the only players and what is coming now is hurting their long term policies in the Middle East and in the Far East. Did you think it was a fluke that the Silk Road was investing in Indonesia? It has over 200 million Muslims and that opens up new commerce borders and Saudi Arabia is ready to collect. I saw part of this last year and I tried to bank on it, but alas the KSA was not assisting (poor me), now that we see this evolving stage, players like Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and his Kingdom Holding Company will make increasing profits in new areas, all whilst the US and EU are given their walking papers. In the next two years their share will decrease by well over 40%, all whilst their political power in that region is most likely to be a trivial one. One ego driven stage led to the larger loss on influence in the Middle East and soon the Far East as well. A stage that China is happy about, the others? Not so much.

But I saw parts of this a year ago, so why did the media not see this? I am not more intelligent than them, but I can read raw data and that was where a lot was all along. But feel free to disagree with me, it is your right, yet when the oil valve closes a little more, just watch the chaos unfold. When you create a mobile industry you need to be weary of essential parts you need, fuel being one of them and the other solution is not as fast as people keep on slapping Elon Musk with his Tesla. All elements in a game where the people who have oil in the family will have the last laugh. Which remind me, how much longer will the US export 90% of its oil? Is there no shortage in the US? 

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 4, 2022 · 21:34

The design of a flaw

That was the very first thought I had when I saw the BBC article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62636746) the title doesn’t help ‘How solar farms in space might beam electricity to Earth’ there we are given “SEI is working on a project called Cassiopeia, which plans to place a constellation of very large satellites in a high Earth orbit.” So, my first question, did anyone see the movie Gravity? It’s the one where we see Sandra Bullock shone over George Clooney (who does an awesome job). With Star-link and a few other contenders and the weakest link is some Russian wannabe shooting a cluster rocket into space. Don’t ell me that this will not happen, these fuckers are doing a lot worse to the Ukraine, as such the Russian problem will be hanging over out shoulders. However, there is this disc in the sky, it seems round and they all it the moon. The same side is pointed at the sun 24:7, as such you can place a solar-farm the size of Texas there. There are a few other benefits, with THAT much power you could fuel a station there. There are a few other benefits, but that is the gist of it. A station that does the repairs and once every 6 months you can send a tank of water, with an added tank (see below) to keep the troops motivated. 

It is not the weirdest idea either. There has been a massive need of power for the longest time and the Sun can provide. The fact that until recently we did nothing is because some stakeholders needed to appease whomever pays them and now that shortage can no longer be hidden. Now, as we take notice of “The solar energy collected by the satellites would be converted into high frequency radio waves and beamed to a rectifying antenna on Earth, which would convert the radio waves into electricity.” Yet in space these waves do not deteriorate and the moon would allow a wave 20-50 times the size, implying that the earth could get 20-50 times the energy. With the moon as a structure much heavier solar panels would be possible as weight does not need to be kept in place and there you have a larger solution that might take another pie-gobbler  out of the equation. I have nothing against the SEI, but should this not be something NSA and the ESA need to work on? And when we have the energy sorted out, we can continue to ignore more environmental issues, or get some Guardian reporter to blame the uber-rich and their jets. Now, it would be nice to see another article with the SEI making claims that my idea is a bad idea (it could be), and how satellites are the best solution, and that might be true. But in space no one can hear you scream and radio-waves go on forever, a simple lesson I learned decades ago in high school. So where is that plan for a moon base and for everything holy, lets not forget about the can of Heineken, it is hard enough to keep scientists motivated without the clear possibility of sex. Beer might do the trick (no promises).

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , ,

November 3, 2022 · 15:18

That second police force

Yes, it comes as a shock. I know it. Although, it does not affect me (I think). But there is also a weird balancing act that derives from there. It was given to me by the Dutch NOS. You see the stupidity of one opponent (Russia) should not decide the inactions towards another (China). So there I was reading (at https://nos.nl/l/2450783) giving us : ‘China denies existence of police bureaus in the Netherlands, calls them ‘service points’’ there we learn that China has at least two of them in the Netherlands. One in Amsterdam and one in Rotterdam. Stations that China erected without informing the Dutch authorities. Next to the usage for administrative duties like the Chinese authorities self indicates, there are strong suspicions that China uses these offices to keep track of the Chinese with critical views of China. 

China responded “They are meant to assist local Chinese citizens who apply for an expired driving license. The people are ‘enthusiastic oversea Chinese people’ not police officers. 

The Dutch ministry of foreign affairs have stated that these offices are unacceptable and must be shut immediately. In other news, Germany is now investigating whether such an office exists in Frankfurt. 

No matter how this plays, China seemingly has a much larger intelligence operation in Europe, or did you think that ‘offices’ would be erected for expired driving licenses? The problem that this creates is twofold. What is merely for China, and what is used to give Russia additional material? The fact that Pro Russian collaboration is going on in the Netherlands has been clear for well over a year and it goes way beyond the borders of one seemingly mentioned name like Thierry Baudet. It goes a lot further and the question is how far? The fact that Russia’s efforts are monitored is one, the fact that China has an intelligence structure beneath the waterline is quite another and that is a setting that neither the Dutch or European forces will find acceptable, and the very same could be said for their alleged German activities.

Is one true? It is hard to say but the Dutch tend to have a sober view on matters, and the fact that the NOS gives us this hours ago whilst Reuters made mention 5 days ago implies that certain evidence has been checked and categorised implies a foundation that some will see as evidence. Of course we wonder how Reuters had it 5 days before the Dutch NOS, but one might have been a rumour, whilst the other one is verified information. The one question the UK (and commonwealth) needs to question is how far does this go, especially with a larger Chinese contingent in Australia, especially Sydney and Melbourne where we find a huge chunk of the 1.3 million Chinese immigrants.

Yet, that is not my concern, but it should be someones concern, don’t you think so?

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,

November 2, 2022 · 17:43

And you still want cake?

A few hours ago I was alerted to an article on the BBC site. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63260648) gives us ‘Cyber-attacks on small firms: The US economy’s ‘Achilles heel’?’ In itself no real surprise, but then I saw “It was a total head-in-the-sand situation. ‘It’s not going to happen to me. I’m too small.’ That was the overwhelming message that I was hearing five years ago,” says Ms Graham, co-founder of CYDEF, which is based in Canada. “But yes, it is happening.” There we see the first instance of utter stupidity, a setting where insurance companies go ‘well, I am sorry to report that it is on your dime that this is happening’ and that is not a speculation, this is about to happen. In addition to that the insurance against cyber attacks will skyrocket unless you have state of the art equipment (something small businesses cannot afford). A stage that is waiting exploitation. There are all kinds of speculations. One of them is “Cyber-crimes are expected to cost the world $10.5tn (£9.3tn) by 2025, according to cyber-security research firm Cyber Ventures”, I do not completely agree, for the most I do, but the big bucks are depending on national 5G, which is not happening in many nations before 2027. You see, one source gives us “For example, in November 2020, one cybersecurity company estimated that global cybercrime costs will grow by 15 percent per year over the next five years, reaching US$10.5t annually by 2025, up from US$3t in 2015 (Cision 2020)” they are seemingly ALL quoting the same source and that source is Cyber Ventures. That does not make it incorrect, yet I have reservations. That number is completely acceptable under 5G, under other conditions (when big tech do not screw up and hand over the keys to hackers) should not go that fast (yet), but when 5G, a national 5G stage is there this number will increase swimmingly all over the globe, which is why I shouted for law adjustments well over two years ago, but the law is seemingly sitting on their hands, all about ‘letting all parties’ swim in the large all whilst the swimming pool has close to zero protection, so this will get worse a lot faster and the EU will see plenty of drowners (aka floaters) soon enough. My speculative view is that the larger problems are a mere 6 months away. 

Then we are given “The pandemic created a whole new set of challenges and small businesses weren’t prepared,” says Mary Ellen Seale, chief executive of the National Cybersecurity Society, a non-profit that helps small businesses create cyber-security plans. In March 2020, at the cusp of the pandemic, a survey of small businesses by broadcaster CNBC found that only 20% planned to invest in cyber-protection.” This sounds nice, but I wonder what we will see in 2023. I expect that it is then that we will learn that less than 40% of these 20% will have actually done something and that is when a lot of people (insurance especially) realise that this is about to become a sinking ship. There was clear indication in 2010 that setting up cyber security was essential in players a little larger than SBE sized companies. They had issues too, but the revenue was too small. The problem is that clever hackers do not grab the whole enchilada. With “It typically takes 200 days from the moment of the hacking until discovery” we see the pattern. The clever ones will hit places for about 150 days then they go underground. That gives them enough to live like a king for a decade. They stay under the fold, they stay inconspicuous for as long as they can. They book a weekend in Vegas and then they launder what they had going home with $5-$15 million. The caper has worked and they are in the clear. Yet these same clever people can clear $50-$150 million when they get access to a fully deployed 5G network and the BS argument of “We will have a solution before that” does not fly, that excuse is a decade old and they have no adjusted laws, there is no adjusted technology and whatever the NSA has is not shared. So as you can see, the numbers are not entirely in the air (the Cyber Ventures one) but it will rely on a fully deployed 5G network which should be around 2027. 

It is time that ALL businesses take cyber security serious. The moment that there is no insurance for that these Achilles heel companies go under with no options for the owner, that person will have lost everything. So when Kirsten Dunst stated ‘Let them eat cake’ (Marie Antoinette) she stated a good case for Cyber criminals. They are having cake every day and those not using Common Cyber Sense will be paying for that meal day after day after month after month after year (you get the idea). It was essential to properly adjust laws for that. And when we look at the data from April we get “according to industry data only four to five percent of hackers are actually caught, but high-profile cases showcase how even the most skilled can make simple mistakes which lead to them being apprehended” so between one in twenty to one in twenty five gets caught. Do you really want to hope on that statistic? This is not a pun against law enforcement or the FBI, they are in a fight with both hands tied behind their backs. Not a good position to win a fight. And that is before we look at state funded hackers. Lets be clear both Russia and China have every benefit for American and European business to lose way too much, proving that part is close to impossible. These players are almost never caught. The arrest by the FSB of REvil was a rare instance, but not all was lost. At https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/ransom-cartel-linked-to-notorious-revil-ransomware-operation/ we learn “Researchers have linked the relatively new Ransom Cartel ransomware operation with the notorious REvil gang based on code similarities in both operations’ encryptors” and that was two weeks ago. At present with Russians not being able to wage war against an enemy that is at best 15% of their own army gives rise that the people behind REvil will be out and about soon enough (if they aren’t already). 

So those who want cake, better find a place to enjoy it before the hackers get it all and I will not care. I have been clearly evangelising the essential need for Common Cyber Sense for years now. And if Optus Australia is anything to go by there are plenty of big fish not too interested in that approach.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Law, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

October 28, 2022 · 23:21

Two things

They are not connected, not in any way, but the first part is too short to make a blog by itself as such I connected the two in separate parts.

Zeus Awakens

I have been brooding on the entry for Zeus, there is no way he can be omitted from the story, it is in one part as he is father to Ares, he is the other grandfather and he will emerge. In part that as our main character is gaining strength, the main character is now becoming a larger concern to the big three. As such I had to add Zeus to some degree and the second season was a decent moment to introduce him. 

It was a nice summer day in France, Nice to be more exact (as it is a nice town). I was sitting on a balcony on the esplanade of Nice, looking at the sea a mere 122 metres to the south. I heard a woman’s voice in the back asking me if I wanted any tea. ‘Yes please Lucia’ I responded and a few minutes later she came with a pot of tea. I saw her shiver and I took a gaze at the thermometer to my left. It was odd, it was slowly going down from the 28 degrees it was a minute ago. In one minute it had cooled down to 19 degrees. Grab the cat I said, I started to close the windows inside, she came in with Charcoal who was clearly feeling the lack of warmth and we closed all the windows. I moved towards the gas heater and turned it on. I didn’t need it, but she would definitely need heat soon enough. I looked at a contraction in the cupboard. It had thermometers, barometers and they were all going nuts. Air pressure was down to 950 and the temperature had gone down to 9 degrees. I looked out and I saw people run for entries wherever they saw one. It was definitely a larger problem, but I had never seen anything like this. The clouds in the air were dissolving, the sky was deep blue and the thermometer was now at 6 degrees. The sea looked calm, the air was quiet and the thermometer kept on declining. Within a minute it was down to 1 degree and it seemed to stop there, in the two minutes that I looked outside, I saw people grab coats. I saw a shopkeeper hand sweaters to some women in bikini as well as to men wearing shorts and t-shirts. The cold was felt everywhere. I noticed that the cat was keeping his body against the heater, it as not used to the cold. Then Lucia screamed, I looked at her and she pointed to the room. A man with long silver hairs was standing there. He was wearing a Victorian suit and he looked at me. I had never seen him before. He raised his hand and sparks flew out of his fingers towards the glass table, he then vanished and the heat came back, I looked at Lucia in puzzlement. I smelled a distinct Ozone air and I looked outside. The heat was coming back and I turned the heater off. I looked outside and the sun was there, the heat came gushing in everywhere and within a minute the temperature was back to 20 degrees. I looked at the table. The glass was there and so was a text, in the glass ‘Ελάτε στην Ακρόπολη, πρέπει να μιλήσουμε’. I got that message loud and clear. So this was my grandfather? Time to learn more about the other branch of the family. I send a mental note to grandpa Hades. “Zeus summoned me, will update you later” I looked at Lucia “It seems I have to make a business trip”, she nodded. She did not understand what was going on, but I got the impression that she was eager to go into denial. “Break the table into small parts, keep the cat away and be careful. Get a new table please.” I walked into the bedroom and got a small bag and from the living room fruit bowl I got my keys, wallet and some small stuff. Time to see Athens again.

Time squandered, time wasted

That was the first thought I had when I saw the Guardian article ‘Profits at world’s seven biggest oil firms soar to almost £150bn this year’. It is not their fault. The article is not what I am commenting on, not really. We get (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/27/profits-at-worlds-seven-biggest-oil-firms-soar-to-almost-150bn-this-year-windfall-tax) “Mathew Lawrence, the director of Common Wealth, a think-tank, said Shell’s zero windfall tax bill for 2022 showed the levy introduced by Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor in May was “not fit for purpose” and needed significant change”, yes. That is how it starts and I am not saying that the comment is wrong, because that would require me to be an expert on taxation, and that is definitely not me. But consider that I wrote ‘Heating at what price?’ On December 3rd 2018, almost 4 years go (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/12/03/heating-at-what-price/).

I mentioned tax overhauls before that, years before than and now we see the impact of inaction and I get that Shell is not wavering, because tax laws were never properly overhauled and now there is a problem. So in 2018 I wrote “It is the first time in history that a Middle Eastern nation has the ability to put the US and EU to shame with their lack of technological progress. They claim to have it, yet Saudi Arabia is making a move towards ‘showing to have it‘, changing the game for both the US and Europe. This is where we see the difference. China and Russia see this as an opportunity, whilst Europe and the US are seeing it as an inconvenience” and now it is no longer an inconvenience, now it is an actual problem and the UK, EU and US are not ready. I warned of these dangers 4 years ago, but they all knew better. How do you feel? Did they know better? Did they know more are were they merely playing stationary, optionally licking stamps. And the opportunity that Russia sees and the opportunity that China sees are different. Russia is out of the equation, but China is now fulfilling what I saw 4 years ago and it will get worse. As China has more and stronger ties with Saudi Arabia they can get more oil and America? They can play indecisive politician, play the pariah game a little more. The UK has its tea grannies (CAAT) messing things up and Europe has little options from the start. All things I wrote about in 2018. And the UN is useless in this case (as I see it). Two things can be seen in very different things, in different ploys. In players and receivers. In actions and lack thereof. Two things almost half a dozen times over and I made clear mention of it in 2018. So as I prepare to sell my IP, I can now see that the timing is near perfect. The players will overreact and by the time they figure out what they could have done I will be retiring. In this it will be either Google versus Amazon, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia versus all others. If one acts the other loses and it will be billions that they lose, if one accepts they will have billions in a direction they never considered before and as I see inaction upon inaction I am wondering if their inactions is why they never saw what they could have gotten. I know it I speculation, but when was the last time anyone left well over 5 billion a year on the floor? And it plays out in the same way that Shell and others are coaching their fortunes. The inactions of others is making them rich, I deeply hope that I get that same bonus, my retirement kinda depends on it. 

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Politics, Stories

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

October 27, 2022 · 06:58

The day After

Yes, I am a little slow today. The giddiness and Cheshire Cat behaviour in me after yesterday’s article slowed me down considerably. It is not everyday that you realise that you have a corner that tech giants like Amazon, Google and Microsoft (optionally Apple too) are overlooking. You want to shout what they aren’t seeing from every rooftop, but that gives them the idea and leaves me out of pocket, so I am refraining from this. And at the moment the commercial manager from the Saudi Consulate is already 4 week late, as such there are (hopefully) more gains for me.

But it is not about that, but there is a link to some degree. Several give it to you, but I am going with the South China Morning Post who gives us ‘Saudi Arabia reaffirms energy ties with China amid US fears over oil cuts’. The article (at https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3197218/saudi-arabia-reaffirms-energy-ties-china-amid-us-fears-over-oil-cuts) also gives us:
 

  • Saudi and Chinese energy officials agree to expand links in energy.
  • Riyadh’s relations with Washington have long been unbalanced and the kingdom has more options now, Chinese analyst says.

And I warned for this some time ago, and there is a second speculative setting. A second decrees is not entirely fictive. The stage where Russia will push for this is decently large, Russia has a voice in OPEC+ and America has made enemies, especially by not dealing with Iran. Any win they get here reflects positive on Iran, it leaves a positive light on Russian acts and leaves America and the EU with negativity. I warned about this around February 10th 2022 (well over 10 months ago) when I wrote “The US has a massive disadvantage especially when they were all huffy and puffy on Saudi Arabia, reality bites and that presentable stage will have to be stopped at the earliest convenience (not for me, I am happy if the BAE takes over), yet these stages (also the one the CAAT forced) are all stages that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia took notice of and China will be happy to show that with every presentation they bring.” The stage with tea grannies (image was there as well), and now we see the deployment of that stage and of course Russia wants every pound of hardship given to the EU and the US. In this OPEC+ is a much larger stage where Saudi Arabia is a strong voice, but not the only voice and Russia has other allies. The problems here is that this stage works for China, so not because it helps Russia, but because China has a lot more to gain, especially when the EU and US are slowed down. I did not have a view on the stage a day or a week ago, I saw this danger 10 months ago. So when we are given “Riyadh’s relations with Washington have long been unbalanced” we are given a much larger truth. The Biden administration has options 10 months ago, now not that many and China’s grip is growing, Washington allowed it to be that way. Washington has a delusional stage that reflects on ‘We can have our cake and eat it too’, it is delusional because you cannot have or do two good things at the same time that are impossible to have or do at the same time. You can have cake, or eat cake, but the ‘analysts and theorists’ come with that example, yes we can and where are those dopey’s now? Now that the ball is handed to the other party when you are deep into defence? 

That is a stage that is becoming increasingly hard for the US. They lost the option of being a super power a long time ago, they forfeit what they have because they believed the wrong people and now that is becomes a game of spin, we see the larger stage that ABC showed in the beginning of the month with ‘US ammunition supplies dwindle as Ukraine war drains stockpiles’, yes they were willing to hand it out, but they aren’t replenishing stocks, as such the Ukraine will soon be dependent on the EU and the US cannot afford to replenish its stock at present and the makers of ammunition are all about the green, they have profit margins. As such the day after looks less and less appealing. So they are losing provisions on one side and are losing revenue and resources on the other side. An unbalanced stage from the beginning and that is the larger folly. But the US can revisit those theorists with their ‘You can have your cake and eat it too’ and ask for an explanation. They will not get anything useful, but that is the problem with these theorists on inactivity. I gave the world this view 10 months ago and reading between the lines there was a lot more, but the US doesn’t pay me, so I see no reason to spell it out to them, they pay massive amounts to people to do that for them.

Giving the stage to every Tom, Dick, Harry and tea granny with a cause is now costing too many players too much and the invoice will be due, in this case the invoice is most likely offered to China who sees several reasons and several benefits. If you want to warn us of the Chinese danger, handing them billions in revenue is not a good idea. It diminishes your danger message and it leaves you with empty coffers as well. Wasn’t the Huawei story enough of a warning? 

I will let you mull that all over today, have a great one.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

October 25, 2022 · 21:11

Questioning the drawing board

That happens at times, we all have a drawing board, we have an idea or IP and it goes swimmingly and then the floor drops. Not because of the idea or the IP, but the floor drops because you forgot, or were unaware of certain parts. This happens and there is no real blame here not in any direction, it is merely what is. This is currently happening to me. In this my IP bundle 3 was knowingly with some risk, because it is depending on certain Meta evolutions, but over time there would be the stage. Yet in event number one we are confronted with a video regarding Modern Warfare 2 Amsterdam Mission. (At https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_LlSR6-ibA) this is so close to real that the metaverse cannot be that far behind (when they figure out where to put their data centre). This is part presumption (a better from of speculation) and the fact that certain players want a benefit now in the metaverse and that works in part in my favour. Yet my idea was set to a stage where the takings were set to somewhere between two and three billion. In part because of the Meta risk, in part to how things tend to evolve. That is in part the name of the game. Now with the evolution stage being that far pushed, the takings of my IP could be 5-10 times higher and there still is a risk. So what gives? Well there are three cogs in that machine. The speed of adapting to the metaverse. That cog is now a lot smaller (hence quicker adaption) because of some of the Modern warfare 2 imagery. Cog two is personal evolution, this remains steady at the same size, it will go quicker because of cog 1, but not that much faster. Cog three is technological attachment. That one remains a little bit of a mystery. Because of what we see in Modern warfare two, we can assume that the rest will be as great, but that is not a given, there will be congestion and there will be overlap, but it matters as the whole image is now a presumption of what Modern Warfare 2 brings. And that matter as the adaption goes quicker, more will adapt and that quantifies the 5-10 times larger growth then I had foreseen. The risks remain the same, as the adaption is more complete my solution will find a home in a lot more cases than I can anticipate, but that is less presumption and more speculation. Amazon is still the frontrunner, but Google has options here too. Amazon has a few extra benefits (if they adapt), but that does not take Google out of the race, not by a long shot. And this matters in other ways too.

You see, these thoughts raced through my mind when I saw the three day old article ‘90% of schools in England will run out of money next year’ (at https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/oct/22/exclusive-90-of-uk-schools-will-go-bust-next-year-heads-warn) there we see “Nine out of 10 schools in England will have run out of money by the next school year as the enormous burden of increased energy and salary bills takes its toll, the Observer can reveal”, I do not completely agree with this. I can agree on the entire energy setting. The UK and other nations are dealing with the Russian part of the equation, as such we are given “electricity and gas costs for schools in his chain had rocketed from £26,000 a year to £89,000” and there is no way that any organisation can foresee a rise of well over 300%, as such other solutions need to be found. We can return to covid stages and shut the schools down for now. This could work in my favour, but I prefer not to go there. Amazon will have a much larger benefit there and both Google and Apple are close by. In all this Apple could trump Google, but that too is speculation. What does matter is that these two elements have similar solutions and we need to look at solutions. The concepts of schools are now more and more outdated. Outdated might not be the right word, but the drain on energy needs to be stopped and as such schools in winter become a no-no. But that same setting gets pushed to homes and they are equally not entirely on the mark for dealing with this. The reality is crass and not that nice. But you need proper isolated warehouses where you can place a few hundred students all with proper internet access, all with power supplies. Well, that or properly isolate schools which should have been done decades ago. The lesser evil needs to be found and I am not sure what the best for education is. As such we have a drawing board, but we need to question that one too. That drawing board is set to old standards, new standards are required and I am not sure where to find them, and I need not worry as it is not on my plate, but that stage is altering enough that we all need to think what is possible here. There is a larger stage and that is on the politics (of the UK), the stage that 90% runs out of funds is only in part on energy, the rest is the consequence of inaction. We want to give blame but the Covid era was a year and too little was done there, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine made the mess complete but that too is only in part (for western Europe). I believe that Strasbourg and London should have had large debates with Elon Musk on the energy issues and that could have been started well over two years ago, now it is seemingly too late and one generation will get the mess of inactions. That is almost a given. I could be wrong, but see of what is happening and see what was not done, not merely in the UK, in most of Western Europe. The early bird that hesitates gets worms. An expression seen in 1988, so this is not new. I will let you mull over what could be a solution for schools, but I am not sure if there is a good one at present, it might be a little too late for several solutions. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,