Tag Archives: SNS Bank

October 11, 2025 · 18:36

The dams are cracking

Yes, that is the setting I saw coming, but there is always ‘space’ for interpretation and at present we see two stories that seem to illustrate this. The first one is given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly17834524o0 where we see ‘Tech billionaires seem to be doom prepping. Should we all be worried?’ It is a question to have, but what does the article ‘bare’ out? It is not that basic or simple. First we are given “Mark Zuckerberg is said to have started work on Koolau Ranch, his sprawling 1,400-acre compound on the Hawaiian island of Kauai, as far back as 2014.” So, he had 11 years? Seems like overly ‘doom prepping to me’ (is this sarcasm or satire?) The additional setting is “The underground space spanning some 5,000 square feet is, he explained, “just like a little shelter, it’s like a basement”” which seems like the average floor of a mall to me. I think that when the ‘basement’ extends well beyond 1000 Sqft, we can ignore the ‘basement’ label and whatever it is, it is his to do. He might be buying up vats of wine or Cognac, whatever it is. It will be his setting. Then we are given “his decision to buy 11 properties in the Crescent Park neighbourhood of Palo Alto in California, apparently adding a 7,000 square feet underground space beneath.” So here again we get the ‘speculating’ media for the setting of a story. So he might have bought the 11 properties, but what happened to them? What evidence is there? He could have bought this for his nearest and dearest. There are many options. Then we get more ‘famous’ names and locations like New Zealand come up. Yet about halfway we get a clarion call (as the expression goes), we are given “Neil Lawrence is a professor of machine learning at Cambridge University. To him, this whole debate in itself is nonsense. “The notion of Artificial General Intelligence is as absurd as the notion of an ‘Artificial General Vehicle’,” he argues. “The right vehicle is dependent on the context. I used an Airbus A350 to fly to Kenya, I use a car to get to the university each day, I walk to the cafeteria… There’s no vehicle that could ever do all of this.” For him, talk about AGI is a distraction.” And as far as I can tell, I feel like Neil Lawrence does with an addendum, and ad the very end we are given ““LLMs also do not have meta-cognition, which means they don’t quite know what they know. Humans seem to have an introspective capacity, sometimes referred to as consciousness, that allows them to know what they know.” It is a fundamental part of human intelligence – and one that is yet to be replicated in a lab.” And it is part of what I have been saying all along. And we get the larger setting from a second source. It is SBS (at https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australians-living-in-america-anxiety/p88o60wos) that give us ‘Saving money and packing ‘go bags’: How Australians in the US are preparing for the worst’ where we see “But she says the attitude towards foreign nationals under the current administration has made life in the US feel “scary”. Kate says these fears were brought to the surface during her green card interview. “They grilled me in the interview and asked me questions not even related to our marriage but about my previous visa and time in the US,” she says.” As well as “Many Australians living in the US are reporting experiencing high levels of anxiety and feelings of instability due to the possibility of rapid political change under US President Donald Trump.”

These are the settings that matter. In the first there is the BBC article that is making the ‘doom lecture’ but that is not the setting. When AI collapses like a near empty shell, people will all be tuning for their incomes and playing the blame game, but as we are given ‘Wall Street crashes after Trump announces 100% tariffs on China; $1.5 trillion wiped out’ consider what happens when all these AI ‘vendors’ fall flat, the damage will be more than 10 times worse, America loses 15 trillion. Can you even fathom that kind of loss? That will be the sounding implosion that leads to civil war when 90% of 340 million people lose whatever they had, retirements wiped out, other savings gone, they will get angry. President Trump will have to run for his life to air-force one as quick as his legs can carry him. Evading to Russia or anyone that will have him and his billions? Mostly gone, if not already abroad. Those who bought large mansions outside of the US are likely safe for two generations in France, Monaco, UAE, Bermuda, New Zealand, you name it, some will evade and this is the setting we see. I reckon that people in California will need high walls to keep others out, optionally armed defenses as well. 

Foreigners are now seeing the scary reality they signed on for and they are getting ready a ‘go bag’ to evade to wherever they can as quickly they can. Is this doom speak?

That is a valid question. You see, the AI setting is merely one, President trump soured the waters on tourism which is down in many ways and no reflective view is given by anyone in media. That amount of bad news they find likely ‘irresponsible’ and the media has no business using that excuse as they have been one of the most irresponsible parties ever. Then foreign retail. Canada pulled all the alcoholic beverages from the shelves in Canada. How much is that costing? One source (Source: Global News) gives us that the decline is 85%, that amounts to how much? These three settings is almost a certainty of recession and there is a lot more declines in the papers but the media will not give you the proper numbers. Several sources all giving different partially overlapping numbers. As such the economic dams of America are cracking. And they will lose a massive amount of revenue and while some will give some of the numbers. Most of us aren’t given the full view. I have some of the views as I have been keeping an eye on some of the numbers. But even I do not have the full view. So whilst some give us “The sell-off erased more than USD 1.5 trillion in market value from US stocks. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market faced record liquidations of USD 19 billion. This is the largest single-day figure ever recorded.” The part no one talks about is where are the billionaires set at? We see the wins of Elon Musk and Larry Ellison, but where are the other billionaires? How are they doing? And that disjointed Microsoft view.

Why the Windows maker?
That is a fair question. You see, they were all ‘heralding’ how good they were doing, but the shimmer in the shadows is different. We are given “Microsoft is currently losing money on AI development, having spent an estimated $19 billion in one quarter on AI infrastructure, with no significant revenue from it yet. The company also experienced a reported loss of $300 million in Call of Duty sales due to the Game Pass subscription model” all whilst Activision and Bethesda was bought for over $100,000,000,000 and that has an interest setting. They might be ‘offloading’ staff (over 9,000 according to some numbers) and whilst they and Adecco (firing into the thousands) are all set to AI, there is a hidden snag. When this falls short they will face a setting that is a lot more dangerous. People will not consider them in the future. So when the non-existing AI is set to the need of engineers it goes flat and when there is no one around (an exaggeration) to program your LLM, consider where your firm will be. ZDNet gave us “Microsoft’s CEO loves to talk about ’empathy.’ But everything that is coming out of Redmond these days is perilously close to turning the company into the Borg.” Basically a non-existent setting of people that cannot live in a vacuum and that is an additional side I never saw coming. I was focussed on Microsoft turning into an empty shell and when the substance is gone, the shell collapses. That is what I saw in Microsoft Games and Microsoft Office. It started in 2012 when their service devisions were no longer up to scrap and when support goes, so does sales and when we consider the over 100 billion for two companies its, whilst they weren’t making enough to even afford the interest on that, the picture of failure starts to evolve into a nightmare setting and sacking 9,000 people will not safe it. They are telling us now that AI is the future, but at present it does not exist and what does exist requires engineers (remember Builder dot AI?) It is a fictive setting that is showing up all over America and the ‘import’ people are seeing the cracks evolve and they want out as fast as they can. Which is good news for Aramco and ADNOC as they now get the choice of the litter, but for America it is bad news. So there is no doom speak. It is the returning story of a country who think it is too big to go bankrupt. I heard that story before (SNS Bank for one) then a few more banks and they are all part of something else. And America? Parts of America could be added to Canada and Mexico would be relieved to get Texas (the latter part is speculation) and that is the dangerous reality that others are facing. The question is what does it take to throw this around and whilst Wall Street is in denial. Others, those who can afford it, will be making a new household out of American clutches (like the non-tax countries mentioned earlier) also Saudi Arabia becomes an option, but the is reserved for the chosen few (and American Muslims of course). 

So am I delusional or do I have a point? I reckon that one of the larger issues (still setting) is how America deals with Alex Jones. Because if he gets his ‘blockage’ Americans will go insane, they will not accept that this Conspiracy theorist is allowed his fortune after he went after dead children (saying they were actors, who were not dead according to sources). I wonder where that will go, because as I see it, it will be the tinder spark America will be set on fire. At that point all bets are off and I reckon that most ‘New-Americans’ will run to the nearest airport. This might merely be my speculation and optionally a wrong one. But that is how I see it.

Beyond that, the losses that America is having and when all the numbers come out, the second stage is reached and whomever thought they had a retirement, they will all try to collect on whatever possible. 

It is a hard setting and I hope I am wring, because this collapse will fall over Japan and Europe pretty much soon thereafter. Connected currencies will take a massive tumble.

Have a great day, if that is presently at all possible. 

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November 23, 2023 · 00:07

Changing gears

This is something I have seen an I have been confronted with in some form. Yet when the NY Times reported on ‘Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts’ (at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/business/banks-accounts-close-suddenly.html). I was taken aback a little. This is not some case of criminal activity, that I would accept. Here we see “Bank customers get a letter in the mail saying their institution is closing all of their checking and savings accounts. Their debit and credit cards are shuttered, too. The explanation, if there is one, usually lacks any useful detail” with an additional “the telltale pause and shift in tone. “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time,” the script often goes”. There are two settings that come to mind (of the top of my head). The first one comes via Dutch journalist and entrepreneur Luc Sala “the world will have two types of people, those who have and those who do not” it is a statement he made 30 yeas ago and we have been moving towards that setting. A stage of enablers, consumers and others. The second thought that came to mind is seen with “Individuals can’t pay their bills on time. Banks often take weeks to send them their balances. When the institutions close their credit cards, their credit scores can suffer. Upon cancellation, small businesses often struggle to make payroll — and must explain to vendors and partners that they don’t have a bank account for the time being.” I see this as the case that to some degree saw with the SVB bank in march. They are so close to the edge that they are closing down all accounts that are not labelled as enablers or consumers. The algorithm is set to what in some circles would be called platinum or gold customers, the rest is cut as a liability. It is all so that they can continue a little longer. As long as they stay away from the edge they will be ‘safe; for another week (or two). And the explanation by Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank with 80 million retail customers and six million small-business ones does not help. The stage where we are given “whose former account holders sent nearly 200 complaints to The Times” is a metric. So how many complaints did The Times get in the preceding 6 months? How many in 2022, 2021 or 2020? These are metrics that we can use and they would give me something to go on, most likely that the two reasons I just mentioned are not merely the most likely ones. It shows that I got it right. The second excuse “We act in accordance with our compliance program, consistent with our regulatory obligations” is seen by me as equally bogus. You see in June 2023, we were given “JPMorgan Chase is fined by SEC after mistakenly deleting 47 million emails” with the added text “The deletions occurred after JPMorgan’s corporate compliance technology department, which had been trying unsuccessfully to delete some communications from the 1970s and 1980s, sought help from an outside vendor managing the bank’s email storage”. Now consider that an additional 40TB for storage costs $2,899. Now consider the two parts “According to the SEC, JPMorgan has been unable in at least 12 civil securities-related regulatory probes to comply with subpoenas and document requests for communications that had been permanently deleted.” Is the first part. The second part is seen when you consider that these activities required the cost of an external deleter (this is not a free skill) and the fact that they tried to delete 53 year old emails implies that the setting was on shaky grounds to begin with. So where was the side of “our regulatory obligations” then? Then we return to 2020 where we see ‘JPMorgan Chase & Co. Agrees To Pay $920 Million in Connection with Schemes to Defraud Precious Metals and U.S. Treasuries Markets’ which amounts to another setting of ‘obligations’ as such the spin is turned back to JP Morgan Chase. This is about (my personal view) algorithm and the ‘dangers’ that these numbers represent. It makes my mind turn to a movie called Margin Call (2011) with Kevin Spacey, Paul Bettany and Zachary Quinto. At some point we get the quote “Fuck me… Once this thing gets going in the wrong direction. The losses are greater than the current value of the company…?” I do not think that the banks are there yet, but with my view on US treasury bonds several banks are now on the edge and they are trimming all the liable fat they have, so those who are not enablers or consumers are cut. I doubt it is only JP Morgan Chase, but they are the first to visibly twitch. If this is right those who saved ALL THEIR LIVES are about to lose a hell of a lot. 

Am I wrong?
That remains the question and it is a fair question and it can be debunked by giving the people (all of us) a clear list of where all those bonds are and who (especially banks) owns more than $50,000,000 in bonds. I reckon that several banks have way more than that and they relied on the quote ‘too big to fail’, but that myth has been taken to bed and treated to the medicinal use of a 12 gauge. 

As such my view could be dispelled easily enough and I made that same request around the SVB bank months ago, even as the media NEVER looked in that direction (for unknown reasons).

The second mistake by Jerry Dubrowski was “the vast majority of closures are correct, consistent with the regulatory obligations we are required to follow” it comes with the realisation that ‘vast majority’ implies that plenty are wrongfully cut and when was there a bank that relied on “You could be wrongfully culled, but that is how regulatory obligations work” said no one ever. It is the relying on ‘vast majority’ that gives the edge to the victims of this. And now JP Morgan will either be required to give full explanation to EVERY ACCOUNT (as I personally see it) or cop another fine of millions, but they are tax deductible and that is the most likely path they will be on. But that could merely be me and I could be wrong.

In this article Ron Lieber and Tara Siegel Bernard give a good account and I could have looked at it earlier, but I did not. This happens and I have no regulatory obligations. And it was only 6 hours ago when we saw ‘Analyst view: Goldman Sachs rates Polycab as ‘Buy’, JPMorgan still bullish on Reliance Industries Limited’ with the added “JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has maintained an “Overweight” rating for Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)” I see no “impressive retail sector performance” I see a reliance on algorithm to get every penny away from the ‘edge’ as possible. I could be wrong there too, but there is every chance that JP will have to call itself ‘JPMorgan Edging’ soon enough. There is another side, but that is an icky one (always wanted to have a reason to use the word icky). It takes me back to the shores of the Dutch SNS bank. Several sides and they might be the first bank in Dutch history that gives a view that white collar crime pays. One got 12 months, 4 got suspended sentences and the Dutch government is down €804,000,000. This relates to the JP case because of the algorithm. How was the bad bank script invoked? How was it ‘allowed’ on paper to fraud and corrupt? Where were the ‘regulatory obligations’ there? It is what the law allows for and as such we see the hardship on the people who are cut (and optionally merely hit hard times). So now consider that the banks cut all those who hit hard times, and still all non-cut customers of that bank are due their fees. So where was the risk management there? The risk has become too great and they are all cut now. That is how I (optionally wrongly) see it.

The last ‘issue’ is that only the NY Times has this, none of the other newspapers have it. The NY Times has enough credibility, but my mind races. There is absolutely no way that JPMorgan Chase is alone here, so why is the NY Times the only one that has this? I doubt it is merely algorithm. This makes me wonder (yet again) how much in US Treasury bonds does JPMorgan Chase has at this moment? 

Just a question. Enjoy the day. I am two minutes from Thursday, Vancouver is only just starting Wednesday.

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February 23, 2022 · 01:27

Seesaw without balance

This happens, a seesaw is play-toy with a shifting balance, but early in life someone thought it through, because if it works for people it works in a lot more places and balance is always option to stages. 

In this, we see two on the left and two on the right, so someone figured out that if one side is too heave, the other side will be too light, so if there is a moderator on the axial of the seesaw, that person can shift weight just before or just after the axial and the seesaw seems fair again. And it would have worked for much longer if there wasn’t someone checking the game that is being played. So today, 6 hours ago Al Jazeera gave us ‘Saudi forces destroy Houthi drone targeting airport in Jizan’ (at https://aje.io/45xbqg), so far nearly none of the western media has it, in 6 hours, no reporting and it is a repetition of an attack 2 weeks ago which came down on Abha, both attacks on civilian populations by Iranian driven Houthi terrorist forces. Yet as I personally see it there lies the rub, the media will avoid negative reporting on Iran, because there is the delusional figment of a nuclear accord shimmering somewhere and no one knows where. Yet in the meantime Houthi claimed attacks continue on Saudi Arabia and the west is not informed by its media, why is that? In this attack 16 people were wounded, and according to Saudi state TV 3 people were in critical condition. 

The problem here is that we rely on people giving us ‘Nuclear talks with Iran enter the endgame’, but not the larger game that Iran is playing and it will cost us, it will cost us all. I would not be surprised if someone at Aramco closes the European and American tap for 2-4 weeks, it would wake up useless politicians getting calls from people in their district that fuel prices have doubled, they would suddenly call crime on every street and as loud as they can, but at present the attacks on Saudi Arabia can continue, can they not? And in this we can ignore the Ukraine and the ‘danger’ that oil prices could go up by $20, if some have had enough oil prices could go up by 200%-300%, but are the people at Aramco willing to go there? Some of the big boys think that they are too big to fail, but in the Netherlands the SNS bank made that very same mistake in 2013. So when someone figures out that there are two parties, the heavy players on one side and the moderator in the middle pretending that this is a fair setting are part of the problem, we will see a much more intense and volatile setting come into play and in this Aramco closing the tap might become the least volatile of all moves. 

This is not speculation, this is merely the optional stage of available strategies that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has at its disposal, you see, the west ignoring and refusing to give the people all the information is becoming a larger problem. Beside the fact that the KSA has embassies everywhere, and as such they see all the papers. The internet is showing everyone the lack of reporting and as such we all have access to Al Jazeera and Arab News. The idea that these news bringers are backwards was proven incorrect for well over a decade and as such people can look beyond their own papers to get a much better view of what is going on and when the people wake up to some media whoring to digital dollars, they could optionally stop looking there for filtered information and look in other places for actual news and at that point the game changes, the axial grinders for the seesaw become no longer needed, but the people employing them will have to keep on paying them, they saw too much. They took calls from stake holders, they took meetings with media parties and they have seen the larger field. I say this not in some speculation, or hiding behind some conspiracy theory. This is simple tactics. The seesaw principle when you start taking notice of all the news that was ‘filtered away’. And when we consider the media greed ‘If it bleeds, it leads’ we see that ignoring international events made no sense. It cannot be because they ran out of space (internet space is obscenely cheap), it cannot be because people did not care (see a casualty and a thousand eyes become instantly interested), someone was filtering. You see tactically speaking Aramco can make a move, or the KSA can force the hand of someone else, and there is every chance that they know who the stakeholders are. So the game is soon coming to fruition and I personally believe that any Nuclear accord that is too weak will suddenly get the larger interest of the KSA and the state of Israel. Thee two settings are a larger play and the media ignored these settings for too long. How long can you say ‘nothing is happening there’ whilst smoke is coming from there? How long until people will take another look via other means? I think we are getting close to that point at present, but that would be speculation. There is no way to tell at present, but the fact that those we trusted to bring us news, those who seemingly shifted to bring us presentations, those are becoming a larger problem and the people seem to be walking up to that part, but that could be my delusional insight in this. 

There is a larger play afoot and we are not given the real deal, a mere ‘Putin is testing ‘how far he can push us all’, US tells Ukraine crisis talks’, not that that statement was wrong, but the story we were given by many over time is watering down, it is how the game is played say some. I wonder what else we are not told, and that might just be me.

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September 17, 2021 · 03:36

How stupid are we?

Yes, let’s come with a question that optionally offends us all straight from the barn, because we deserve to be asked the hard questions. I have been accused of being ‘all’ pro Saudi, all ‘pro’ China and why? You see, two players (US and UK) have a product, OK the USA less so, if you ignore 900 flaws and that would be fine, but then the US gives the KSA ban after ban and for no good reason, merely a morel approach whilst the opponents of the KSA are not held to ANY standard. So, if I see an option to make 3.75% from $11,000,000,000 I will do so. Australia is not in a war with China. Now, as a commonwealth citizen I would have preferred to sell the KSA the UK solution, but here we see that the UK is as stupid as the US and they all listen to the wrong people and they are now losing out on billions, billions THEIR government coffers desperately need (the US needs them as well, but I remain a commonwealth citizen, so fuck ‘em). And China has a product and personally so does Russia, but in that equation I would prefer to ‘sell’ the Chinese solution. There are no morals, this was all about common sense (and me getting a few coins in light of an upcoming retirement event).

Now was it good, was it bad? It is neither, a buying party needs their nation safer (KSA) and the USA and UK have an issue with that, so along comes a valid alternative (China) and so I take a gander being the courier here. 

That does not mean that others are not to be held by standards and that is where we are. You see Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/15/what-could-an-evergrande-debt-default-mean-for-china-and-beyond) is giving us the stage where we see ‘What could an Evergrande debt default mean for China and beyond?’ And the stage is not a small one, the debt is now at $300,000,000,000. It is larger than the national budget for quite a few nations. I am wondering, was no one awake when we were confronted with the utter stupidity of a place called Interserve Plc? Oh, and only earlier this year we were fed ‘Interserve Construction suffers £108m loss’, and that was not even the worst. In March we get ‘Losses from Interserve’s energy-from-waste disaster top £300m’, did no one catch on and after we had the Lehman brothers, the Dutch SNS bank who relied on ‘We are too big to fail’, we now see Ever Grande and the risk of running short on $300,000,000,000 which looks like a thousand times worse than Interserve, now Tilbury Douglas and the hard times are nowhere near over. Yes, the board of directors will fill their pockets on the way out and I reckon that Hui Ka Yan and his $11,000,000,000 plus fortune will not face the danger of hunger any day soon. Now, whatever China does is up to China, yet I believe that the setting of “Evergrande currently has 1,300 real estate projects in 280 cities in China” shows that there is a larger need for governments to step in, especially when we are confronted with “the real estate developer may not be able to make the interest payments on some of its $300bn in liabilities next week and could also miss a principal payment on at least one of its loans”, I personally never believed that there is anything like ‘Too big to fail’, just offer some of these contracts and the payments to their competitors and see what happens. So even as Hui Ka Yan believed in the alternative Tom Cruise with “I feel the need, the need for greed” there is a larger station, we do know that governments tend to be a lot more stupid then people, but there are well over half a dozen examples of stupidity, did no one catch on? And here we need to take notice that people are on average as stupid as the average of the total amount of stupid people. Yet governments and companies doe not share that. They are as stupid as the sum of all the people working for them and that tends to be a lot worse. According to Deutsche Welle it is already there. With “Some 1.5 million people have put deposits on new homes that have yet to be built” (at https://www.dw.com/en/evergrande-why-the-chinese-property-giant-is-close-to-collapse/a-59175953) we see a setting where a place like San Diego, California where every person in that city loses ALL of their lifetime savings, it is that bad and we tend to wonder what will any government do, I wonder how these people will not lose everything. This is not some collection of shareholders, this is a stage where 1,500,000 people become optionally homeless overnight, it is a lot worse and it could hit the Chinese economy in a few ways and as some people sit hiding behind their dark shades, nodding and state “We feel the need, the need for greed”, all whilst the cadavers of circumstance pile up. When will governments learn that there is a need for oversight, especially when the impact is THAT big. So whilst we take notice of “Evergrande has expanded into other areas of the economy, including food, life insurance, tv/film and leisure”, can anyone explain to me why a property giant was even allowed in food and life insurance? Never mind the bollocks (aka: the 122nd largest group in the world by revenue, according to the 2021 Fortune Global 500 List), too many are heralding and applauding stupidity and greed. As such I feel perfectly fine trying to be the courier between two parties grabbing a decent coin in the process. Oh, and as the Chinese government is seeing what is rolling their way, the KSA deal might be one that diminishes the impact of Evergrande, so whilst we see three people (Biden, Johnson and Morrison) plot to become a new world power by handing nuclear submarines to Australia, all whilst we know that this is merely setting a stage to strut around like peacocks, no one is looking how much more Australian defence budgets will get with nuclear submarines in the mix, all whilst they still need to realise the impact of the F-35 folly. As such I wonder who is aware of what will be left to other people past 2035 when the defence budget will require a 45%-61% top up. I believe in defence as much as the next person, so whilst we accept “Last month the Australian government signed a $50 billion contract with the French company DCNS to build 12 new submarines”, do you think that such a contract will not come without cost? Yet here too (source: ABC News) we are told that “that program has come with delays and blowouts, and would have delivered conventional diesel-electric submarines, like the Collins Class”, so at least there is a decent reason and it makes sense, but still, there is a larger concern, not the coming of nuclear subs, but the realisation that Australia has an antiquated submarine stage and it does need to take care of 2,137,000 meters of beach front property, something needs to be done and that is good, I do not object.

Australian Navy too small

I merely wonder (at times) why it took this long in the first place. When we dig deeper we see why the US wants it because the foundation of nuclear submarines need to be build there, which makes me a bit hesitant after the failures that the F-35 (with 900 design flaws) as well as the failure that the Zumwalt class represents (at $21,000,000,000), the US wants to shout that this will be a success, but I have concerns and fortunately I do have a degree in ships engineering (which I never used). The larger stage is seen but so far governments are seemingly deaf as their irresponsible teenagers (aka politicians) are living off someone else’s credit card and there is the rub, there is the danger. They all live by the rule “We are too big to fail” and China is seemingly no different, its corporate greed is just like all the other greed driven players. So whilst a few players are trying to push the borders, we need to consider what happens when someone in that pool of overspending delusional players panics, because that will be the ball game when things escalate and explode in all our faces. 

How stupid are we to not loudly protest as corporations and governments remain absent in actions, especially when there is a $300,000,000,000 issue? Why was there no action when the danger was a mere $5,000,000,000? Even for China 300 billion is too much and when did we see a positive outcome when that much money was lost? I do not remember any positive impact. Not in 2004, not in 2007 and this time around it will be no different. Yet when the amount is that big it will impact a lot more people, all over the globe. 

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March 21, 2015 · 12:27

This is not Sparta!

You might not realise it, but many of us have a Greek side in us. The gamers are all about ‘This is Sparta!’ as they slay their opponents Gerard Butler style (a Scotsman no less) in Diablo 3, more than a few of them would also consider becoming the consort of Lena Headey (Queen Gorgo), a woman who might be twice their age, but still looks better than the average 25 year old photo model. Some with a more academic approach will be confronted with the Socratic Method as they get through another Uni class. Some will love it, some will hate it. It seems there are no people in the middle ground here. Doctors still recite the Hippocratic Oath and we could argue that Prudence which comes from Phronesis, a Greek word, which got introduced by some old Greek with a beard. I remember the speech, this old guy suddenly making a speech, roughly 334BC, I was watching the Panathenaic Games and suddenly he starts deliberating (at himself) in a most bombastic voice. The man starts ‘ranting’ about something called Nicomachean Ethics, nice, but not while ‘I am watching a game!’ Someone told me his name was Aristotle. I reckon the fab never caught on. Let’s face it, public speakers and the virtue of practical thought, it will never catch on, I reckon. Guess what! It has been 2345 years and I was right! Take this Tsipras fellow, as I see it, he continues a long line of public speakers void of practical wisdom.

That we see in ‘Greece financial crisis: EU offers funds in return for urgent reforms‘ (at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/20/greece-financial-crisis-eu-offers-funds-in-return-for-urgent-reforms). You see, this Alexis Tsipras has been in office almost 2 months now and as we can read in the article, he has nothing to show for it. He was supposed to show reform, he now has 10 days and the photo as printed shows away hiding his mouth behind his first. Is it agony, frustration, defiance? Is it all just theatre? The BBC with ‘Greece to draft new reform plan within days – EU leaders‘ (at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31963952), which shows a ‘smiling’ Tsipras with the quote “Greece has agreed to come up with a new reform plan within days to secure the additional bailout funds required to prevent bankruptcy“, read those words carefully. It does not state, ‘will finalise’, or ‘will complete the current draft’, it states ‘to come up with a new reform plan’. So when we see the quote “I think that all the sides confirmed their intention to try to do their best to overcome the difficulties of the Greek economy as soon as possible“, I feel slightly miffed. You see Tsipras is all about the blame game. In one part, he has every right to be so, because the mess was not initially of his making. He did get into the elections as he saw he could ‘play’ the voters and now it is crunch time, he cannot deliver, because whatever defiant act he will attempt will cost the people of Greece dearly. As I see it, he’ll end up doing exactly what Antonis Samaras was doing, I wonder if that constitutes election fraud? Promising something, not doing it and doing what the opposition was doing all along. As I saw it (yes, a personal view), Antonis Samaras was a fine politician trying to decently play a really crappy hand that he got dealt. You see, in this regard, none of them have done anything  about holding to response the previous administrations that tailored the deal, that spend money an entire next generation did not have, not to mention the artful tax dodgers, none of that was as I see it done! I reckon that Tsipras would only have to arrest Kostas Vaxevanis to show that he is no better than any of the other previously elected politicians.

You see my emotion here is because I love Greece (Specifically Crete), I feel pain as I see that it is driven into the ground by elected officials, it is largely done so through inactions, which makes it even worse. It is sloth in its most profound form, not just spiritual and emotional apathy, it is done through additional decisive inaction. A form of treason of the worst kind. Almost like the captain of a ship who now INTENTIONALLY goes towards an iceberg expecting the iceberg to get out of the way. It reminds me of an advertisement where the captain of a cruiser (USS Montana) who decided to play chicken with a lighthouse (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYsdUgEgJrY), yet in this case it is not a person being handed ‘incomplete’ or ‘incorrect’ information. In this case we all know the object in front of the good ship Hellenic Republic and its captain(s) have not taken the measures they should have. This is how the news is reading to me. What should have been done is a list of continuing meetings non-stop with all parties. The Greeks were given a play, theatre of a mediocre level and soon they will not be left with any options. As I personally see it, politics of its very worst kind.

All this now reflects in a bad way, especially if we take the word of the NOS (Dutch News). Here we see “‘De verwachting was dat het goed zou komen’, zegt de Rabobank-econoom. ‘Maar het probleem is dat de Grieken steeds hun beloftes breken. Ze proberen steeds opnieuw over de voorwaarden te onderhandelen’” “‘The expectations were that everything would be fine’ said the Rabobank economist, ‘but the problem is that the Greeks break their promises and then try to renegotiate their deal again and again’{translated}” as well as “We zijn wel gewend van de Europese politiek dat oplossingen pas gevonden worden als we bijna in de afgrond stappen” “We are used that European politics will find a solution as we are about to step into the abyss {translated}”.

This all directly reflects back to the days of the SNS-bank debacle ‘too big to fail‘. It seems that Tsipras is taking the ‘let’s take this over the abyss, so I can blame someone else‘ approach. Not the most subtle path of the blame game, but a blame game tactic none the less. When did we see any serious step to address reform from Greece? It seems to me that the ‘let’s be nice one more time to Greece‘ is counted upon, yet no clear and decisive act from the Greek elected officials is coming. So as the possible mark of bankrupt is looming no more than 2 weeks away, did the Greek population consider that if the government is out of money, how much money is actually available at a bank? When the run on the bank starts, how quickly are those coffers empty and where will the people get cash to pay for the average need like food, water and electricity?

That part seems not addressed in any way!

Actually it is (at http://www.afr.com/news/world/greek-coffers-running-on-empty-bring-accident-threat-closer-20150320-1m3nym), the Australian Financial Review is not the only Financial Review paper, so there will be more, but for the most, we see little about this little part: “While Mr Tsipras isn’t saying what’s left in the bank, he acknowledges Greece is facing ‘liquidity pressure’. The country’s cash shortfall is projected to hit 3.5 billion euros in March“. So even if that part might be ‘virtual’ to some extent, how much money is actually available to banks? That part might be seen when we consider “The Bank of Greece has plugged cash shortfalls by tapping the reserves of other public sector entities, including pension funds, hospitals, and universities“, as well as “The Bank of Greece and the European Central Bank won’t report official cash outflows for January until the end of the month. But sources in the Greek banking sector have told Greek newspapers that as much as 25 billion euros (US $28.4 billion) have left Greek banks since the end of December“, which comes from http://www.cnbc.com/id/102439432. So in two weeks, how will things get paid for?

That is a question Greeks (the population at large) should be asking, because when the money is gone, how will they address the bills with the cash of their savings whilst the banks had pushed them in possible other none profit making endeavours? At least, if things really collapse, we can always opt ‘at least it was due to a radical left vision’, in the past (read 70’s), the radical left visions gave way in Italy to Brigate Rosse and in Germany to the Rote Armee Fraktion. Their economy was never this desperate, so I wonder what the Greeks will come up with, I am however sure that it will be blamed on the Germans (again).

In my view, I wonder, was I correct two years ago? Could an independent Crete have created at least a partial economic growth? Would Crete have been better off in a state of independence? I do not proclaim to have the evidence, but I feel that my feeling back then was spot on. Now the rest of Greece could drag down this island against their will.

It seems very unfair, but then in the politics of Tsipras (and that of politicians at large), fairness never had anything to do with it.

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October 3, 2013 · 21:50

The numbers we ignore?

Today is another day that the US government is in shutdown mode. This is not Episode 8 from season 5 of the West Wing by Aaron Sorkin (brilliant man). This is reality!

There is polarisation on many levels and even though we want to blame one side as we stand on the other side, there is a deadly reality playing out in the corridors of power. The Democrats refuse to cut their spending; the Republicans will not play soft or compromising. Today we see the Guardian with “Obama meets bank chiefs as economists warn of ‘deep and dark recession’” at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/02/obama-bank-chiefs-economist-deep-recession. As we look at a few facts quoted “President Obama met bank executives including Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein“. The firm that helped many lose their house. I admit that this is unfair towards Mr Lloyd Blankfein, but the sentiment behind it stays in valid form (I will get to that later on).

“A looming battle over the nation’s $16.7tn debt ceiling. Treasury secretary Jack Lew has warned that the US could default on its debts if the limit is not raised soon.”

The second part is why the republicans are not budging. The Democrats are raising and spending and leaving it all to the next one in office. There is enough evidence to state that it is likely that the Republicans will return to the White house. In that regard, they have ZERO interest in cleaning up the Democrat mess, which will take several administrations. The fact, that the Democrats are not willing to cut their spending, whilst they spend a lot more than their budget allows. It is almost hilarious how things are spun. They claim it is all about affordable healthcare, whilst this option is increasing the debt by $100 billion a year. Now, it there was money coming in on the other side, there might be some level of case, but that is not happening. This current administration has added over 5 trillion dollars in debt during his first term. That is an overspending by 3.4 billion dollars a day. With Obama care this will be even more. Now, this administration inherited a sour deal. The economy had collapsed; there were issues with some financial crash in Wall Street and so on. Yet, the debt he has added to in one term is a lot more than Bush added in two terms. (So both sides have some of the blame). The republicans are not blameless, but they will not accept the continued addition of debt which is currently getting pushed. The US national debt is now well over 100% of its GDP. This is the part many seem to ignore. So if all taxation (which is only 26.9% of the GDP) is used to pay for the loan, then it will take 4 years to get rid of their debt. That works ONLY if the US government pays no wages, fixes nothing, builds nothing, buys nothing and heals no one. So for 4 years Americans must make due with nothing at all. This is not a realistic approach, I admit that! So you can only use to pay what you have left, however the government has been spending 120%-145% of the money they received and with Obama Care spending will increase. America is currently, in my humble opinion bankrupt!

Do you doubt this? This would be a fair enough position to take, consider any company being allowed to spend 120% of their annual revenue. How long until any bank will close the tap? In addition, there should be overall outrage that a company would work 100% of the time just to pay the bank. There is 0% job security in that regard, for if the annual +5%-+15% cannot be made, they will cut the costs that are not desired. In that scenario there will be no healthcare of any kind, because the sick do not contribute to the future of profit. That dangerous situation currently exists!

The article by the Guardian has more “But he warned that would be nothing compared to the Pandora’s box that would be opened if no deal on the debt ceiling was done before 17 October deadline. Congress must agree to raise the US’s $16.7tn debt ceiling by that date or risk being unable to meet its obligations.”

That is the crux! The total debt will increase and the republicans will not stand for that. My earlier comparison to get rid of the debt in 4 years is not realistic, I said that. Only if spending is lower than American income can the debt be lowered. It will take more than 3 generations to get that done. Some disagreed with that number. This is fair enough. Yet, let us make a small calculation.

$17T is $17,000B. The interest due would be $340B (it is actually higher at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm, but it is about the example).

If we believe the census (as shown in my Blog ‘Biased Journalism on USA shutdown?‘) then the interest due is 13% of ALL collected taxation. How can ANYTHING get done after the interest is paid? And that is only interest, no decrease of the actual loan. So consider that all amenities, support and expenditure of the US must decrease by at least 16% to get this done. How can that ever be a realistic situation? This is why the Republicans are not budging. The more important issue is that the Democrats knew this. They knew that the train would stop and they ignored this. Not unlike in the Netherlands where everyone stated that the SNS Bank was too big to fail, the Dutch government nationalised the bank. Why the Dutch as an example? Well, they are in some similar predicament. They are not able to lower spending. They need to cut an additional 6 billion whilst their GDP was 700 billion last year. If they cannot cut 1%, how will the US ever deal with their debt? There have been words on corporate taxation left right and centre, yet what they are not mentioning is the issue that the UK has seen this year. Big business, like Google has been pushing their own booked revenue to other places. This quote from Bloomberg “Google’s chairman says he is ‘proud’ of the way his company avoids paying taxes ”It’s called capitalism,” Eric Schmidt told Bloomberg in a…” So, whatever money the US treasury has coming in, it is not from the big boys of business. They have the right accountants and tax lawyers. So here we get back to Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein.

When we see the acts of Google and how Goldman Sachs was involved in the Greek issues, people would wonder whether they (Goldman Sachs and the US government) are not working together in the same way. If so, then there are more questions on the entire setting of the article the Guardian published (from the link at the beginning). There is no way that someone like Mr Blankfein is not aware what the big boys of industry in America are doing. When we read in places like Forbes that Google is not alone in these acts, but that companies like Apple are doing the same thing, then raising a debt ceiling whilst the captains of industry are not paying anywhere near the tax they ‘should’ then we must ask other questions. All this becomes even more hilarious when we consider the information from the Financial Standard on July 15th (at http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/33335431) where it is stated that “US delays tax avoidance law by 6 months“. So the big boys in that initial Guardian Article are all about gloom and doom, whilst the US treasury seems to be missing out on taxation by not acting on Tax evasion (which is actually not a crime at present). So they want to borrow more, but will not put in place legislation that would lessen the dangers of paying the due interest. That last part is shown in Forbes article last month by Steve Denning. (At http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2013/09/12/alan-blinder-six-reasons-why-another-financial-crisis-is-still-inevitable/)

  1. Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 hasn’t been implemented.
  2. The $5 trillion banking assets in derivatives are still off-balance sheet and unregulated
  3. The rating agencies are “still hired and paid by the very companies whose securities they rate.”
  4. The Volcker Rule forbidding proprietary trading by banks has not been implementedAnd I add;
  5. US tax avoidance laws not implemented.

From these parts we could come to the conclusion that the Obama administration has failed the American people almost completely, whilst unable to get spending under control.

American politics is a lot more complex, so there are other factors, but it seems to me that Steve Denning is showing us several dangers that are currently not stopped. So when, not if, they happen, the people as they walk away with nothing left, can wonder how that expensive affordable healthcare is helping whilst they have no house, no job and no food.

It is a sad day for many people, because in the end, not only America seems to be unable to control their budgets, they are only, for now the most visible one.

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