Tag Archives: Ukraine

November 6, 2024 · 00:24

iRan is not an Apple product

There is a larger setting in the world (predominantly the middle east). We are given by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3yqzx72zno) ‘Iran’s supreme leader says enemies will receive ‘crushing response’’. I left it to the left at first (three days ago) for the reason that the entire Iran debacle is like hauling water to the sea. Where the text starts with “The US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response”, Iran’s supreme leader has said, following an Israeli attack on Iran a week ago.” It sounds nice, but Iran is limited to deliver attacks through terrorist fractions. It is too scared to attack directly. In the beginning it was about deniability, but that is gone now and Iran is on the verge of be labelled “a terrorist nation” by pretty much all nations. And it is scared of that as such it is trying to kiss up to Antonio Guterres. Yet Israel decided on October 13th “Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reinforced on Sunday his decision to declare U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata over what he described as a failure to condemn Iran’s missile attack and antisemitic and anti-Israel conduct.” There are other nations thinking that Guterres has outlived its usefulness as a UN tool (I speculate that Ukraine is one of them). So when we see the BBC give us “The threat comes as Iran assesses whether and how to respond to Israel’s attack last month, that Iran said killed four soldiers, which was in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack against Israel earlier in October.” There is only so much Iran can get away with and whilst the US is begging to leave the oil fields alone (they get a slice of that revenue I reckon). Iran is now losing whatever options they had. As I see it Robert F. Worth said it best “‘The Iranian Period Is Finished’. Hezbollah’s losses have led some in Lebanon to imagine a future without it.” You see Hamas might seen shelter behind civilian bodies there, but Hezbollah is merely a small part of the 5.5 million population and Israel has had enough. 

Now that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been called a persona non grata, the options for the UN will diminish a lot more and Hezbollah has none left. Their only option is for Iran to engage in a full scale war and Iran is hesitant to do so. With the attacks on Saudi Arabia (via Houthi proxy) they only stand the smallest of chances if other Arabian nations support them and those nations are not willing to do that (as I personally see it). And the issue continues (and worsens). The BBC also reported “Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an alliance of Tehran-backed groups that include Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and well-armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Most have been designated as terrorist entities by some Western states.” Let me be clear, they merely voiced the words of Iran and there is the problem. Do you think that the BBC would have given Germany the ‘respect’ by calling it the third kingdom? (1933 – 1945) And the larger option becomes that ‘their’ axis of resistance is in shambles. The Hamas terrorists are hiding behind the population they claim to protect. Hezbollah terrorists are relying on exploding pagers and the rest of Hezbollah has no clue what to do and Houthi terrorists are in a dangerous position. Lloyds reported yesterday “Houthis’ reported to be earning an estimated $180m a month from illegal safe-transit fees paid by unnamed shipping agents to secure safe passage through the Red Sea” as well as a report from ynet news that ‘Houthis turn to social media to raise funds for war’, this tells me that they are now cash strapped and here the UN is close to useless. They might talk a nice talk but it seems to be finally falling on deaf ears. In the meantime a report a mere 15 hours ago gives us that Houthi forces are trying to align themselves with Al-Qaeda forces. This happened whilst one source gives us “the two terrorist groups agreed to put aside their differences and focus on weakening the Yemeni government” the beginning of all kinds of escalations. And that is the setting for Iran, or as the American voices state “Become Al-Qaeda’s bitch or fall alone”, I cannot vouch for that, but Iran depended on deniability and now that this is gone Iran faces the reality of going to war. So how long until that goes wrong? In all these settings the United Nations might be out of options as well (until a new CEO is elected). You see on October 24th we got to hear “UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that his country’s on-going invasion of Ukraine violates the United Nations Charter and international law.” ‘Reiterated’? This has been going on for 10 years and now we see ‘reiterated’? I reckon that the insertion of North Korean troops is making this a larger stage. Basically it is now a world war. You see, there is no real definition, one that aligns with todays setting of “In order to qualify as a world war, at least one of three criteria must be met: the conflict takes place between multiple nations across the globe, battles are fought in many different locations, and the war must be fought against great powers with significantly advanced technology.” It now involves Russia, Ukraine and North Korea. At this point I believe that the setting of a World War is reached. You see one criteria was met and this reflects back unto Iran too. Because in this setting, Iran might be getting cozy with Russia, but Russia has its own brand of troubles and that is setting the grind in another direction. As such Iran loses whatever friends they thought they had. As such we are given “Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates unite against Iran, with support from the United States.” A statement that is presumptuous, but lacks clear evidence (as I see it). It is likely to be true, but I have not seen that evidence. And in this setting Iran has two options, the first is to engage is all out war, the other is to drop the terrorist organisations Hezbollah and Houthi, leaving them to fend for themselves. 

I could be wrong but this is as I see it the political chessboard where we have three players. I would personally see a different stage where the board is used with the chess pieces of Chinese chess. It would be a decent challenge to get any player to actually win whilst the other two are hacking on the pieces and that applies to all sides in this equation. If we get a ‘dopey to dollars’ equation I reckon that Israel has a lead because Iran is about to lose two thirds of its ‘axis’ and that results in less pieces to move around and more exposure of its own pieces. And the number one weakness for Iran is that they cannot move their oil fields or oil infrastructure. That is the bottleneck for Iran, and they have less and less options for securing that financial option.

As I personally see it Iran is about to become ‘I ran’ and they now have no place to run to.  

Have a great day.

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October 21, 2024 · 11:34

What is the real deal?

That is the question I have. I am not saying that I have ‘evidence’ but you can judge the information I will hand you now. Early yesterday morning I stumbled upon ‘Saudi Arabia ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to end Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin’ where we are given (at https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/saudi-arabia-comfortable-venue-for-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin/article68773948.ece) “Saudi Arabia will be a ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Saturday (October 19, 2024).” With the ‘supporting’ text ““I repeat once again: we are ready to return. We didn’t interrupt the negotiations. I want to remind you: it was the Ukrainian side that said that it would not continue negotiations with Russia. First. Second. A decree of the President of Ukraine has been issued prohibiting negotiations with us,” said President Putin accusing Ukraine of preventing a solution from emerging.” To be honest, I do not put much faith in the words of Vladimir Putin, as I see it, he is nothing more than a mass murderer of Women, children, aid workers and more. The bombing of the Ukraine might be one of the most disgusting acts against a people since long before the Crusades. An act that makes the acts of Genghis Khan sound like a simple sniffle. 

Then we get the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-672-850-troops-since-feb-24-2022/) handing us ‘General Staff: Russia has lost 672,850 troops since Feb. 24, 2022’, we knew that the Russians were losing a lot of people and we see this below

Apart from the 678,520 soldiers who went the way of the dodo, they also lost 26987 vehicles, 9047 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters, 17,050 drones and a submarine and a few other items. Beside this Russia seems to be toting North Korean hardware and troops. The once mighty Russia is now relying on North Korean troops and weapons. As I personally see it Russia is on the threshold of defeat. The once mighty country that had the west shaking in its boots is now relying on a nation Russia once looked down on is sending troops and hardware. Yes, President Putin is looking for a comfortable place to talk about any solution that sees Russia in an alternative route towards non-defeat. The latter part is not really an option, but he might want to keep the hope up. I personally see that there is another side. China sees the war as a hindrance and they like Saudi Arabia as a winner in any political solution at present. But that is merely my view on the matter. 

Russia needs a scapegoat in all matters and as President Putin made sure all his adversaries have  committed suicide out of windows. He is now left massively out of options and the Saudi setting is now his (presumably) only way out. At this point he might get away with a working military in about a decade as it will take time to replenish 9000 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters and a submarine, preferably in a 21st century setting. As such the Russian steel mills will need to be repurposed and it can afford nothing more until at least 2030. And that is all presuming that Russia wants a working solution at this point, it will cost them dearly as well as the Russian ‘blemish’ that they lost to a global army in 20th position, that is the defeat and larger political loss they face. With the setting in Saudi Arabia he could possibly avert an expulsion from BRICS. At present China and India are considering the gains they make on the global stage if Russia becomes isolated. China gains defence contracts all over the world, India will get several boons all over the commercial field and that is the premise that Russia is now looking at. 

As such the Saudi premise works for Russia, but only if they play nice. Any act that is seen negatively by the Ukraine will be taken harshly and if the Ukraine walks out of these talks Russia’s goose will be cooked, peppered and marinated. As such I have the question. What is the real deal here? I have faith that Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity, as does China. But in this instance it depends on what game President Putin will be playing. Not only does he know that he is with his back to the wall, will he embrace the small options of a massively greater loss is heading his way? I cannot tell, because that requires an insight of a mass murdering mind I do not have.

Have a great day wherever you are.

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September 14, 2024 · 11:05

The change of a name

That is on my mind. What set it off was a response (not by me) to a story on Twitter. It amounted to something that would optionally happen under the upcoming wannabe Trump regime. The story went that a settlement would be struck with Russia that Ukraine would hand over a slice of their land to Russia, something I find utterly unacceptable. It would trigger me to change atlases and maps changing all references from USA (United States of America) to FBP (Federated Bitches of Putin). My reasoning? 

Look at the losses that they so far have under Putin, 631 thousand soldiers, 17,000 AFV (troop carriers), 18000 artillery systems, 28 warships, a submarine and 24500 vehicles and fuel tanks, 368 airplanes, 945 anti aircraft systems, over 300 helicopters and more than 8600 tanks. They lost this to the 20th size army in the world. So when Trump negotiates this ‘settlement’ America loses the right to call themselves some united sort of stated, they become Putin’s bitches. Plain and simple. 

The other side
There is another side to this. As America hands lands to the loser there is every indication that several nations in Europe, optionally in Australia and oceania as well will turn to China to become a more close friend than America will be. We already heard (lacking evidence) that Huawei was a danger, something that has met with large opposition, particularly in Germany and the world has had enough of a collection of Karen’s and their joker (Donald Trump). The larger setting could be that they would agree to enter BRICS under condition that Russia is evicted from that group which could coincide with alignments to Beijing. And this would only be opposed to Russia, not much of an opposition after 2025. In one strike the new world order would have taken Russia And America out of the equation. Is it a real chance? I am not sure, but the powers that currently are have a setting to obliterate any view that takes Wall Street out of this equation. At present the largest danger that America faces is that the age of McCarthyism went south on May 2, 1957. The day Joseph McCarthy died. We all thought he was no good, but all those who had that opinion (me included) can now see that Joseph McCarthy might not have been wrong at all, ask any Ukrainian for a first opinion. 

Is there any good to report on this setting? It is an election year and as such there is a larger stage where neither side will give the goods on the Ukraine. This is partially seen in “Russian restraint in the expectation of a potential Trump victory in November is also matched by caution on the part of the Biden administration for similar reasons. The overriding priority of the US and its allies in their support for Ukraine has always been guided by the desire to avoid the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalating into a wider war with Nato” There is also the second threat, which a see as a primary threat to Russia. When Europe and allies side with China. Russia and America will both be out of the race. All whilst they think that they are both ‘semi-courageous’ (read: cowardly hyena’s) the setting that comes is economic betterment and as Europe and others side with China, the two who need the recovery the most are abandoned at the drop of any conical hat.

Could I be wrong?
Yes, but this is (as I see it) the very tactic that Beijing would employ. To be certain of their economic rise over the next 10 years. Together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE they could even employ larger stages including introducing of free language skills and get the voice of the people by handing them a voice to employ in a non English way. Don’t think this will not happen, Saudi Arabia is already doing this for other reasons as well. It will not be long until universities will employ those stages to students. As I need to see the stage that I could be wrong. I have been correct too many times as well as the stage that certain greed driven policies are abundantly strong in Europe. That takes America with their $35,300,000,000,000 debt is forcing them to consider. As that pile of debt comes crashing down on America, all with connected debts will choose a safer path for themselves. As I see it France and Germany are the first to switch. Germany now has the AfD to deal with and they will see the debts they have and easily switch to China, no matter what the media states. The Media is too linked to American ‘values’ and there the larger stage is thrown over, especially as their influencers (read: stakeholders) will be trying to find a safer harbour to keep whatever they had. As I personally see it, with that large debt it would only take one third of the 760 billionaires in America for the walls of the American economy come tumbling down and I reckon that it will be the first half of the 253 billionaires to switch another country for the American administration to throw out the ‘freedom’ that these people had to shore up the banks and financial institutions. As such the ‘wealthy’ will secure whatever they can via Monaco (optionally), Nassau and the United Arab Emirates. They will merely take small portions on a monthly basis (until a few panic) and they will suddenly leave with whatever they can and live somewhere else for no less than two decades. And that is the second marker Beijing needs. When it is shown to be not on the premise of national security China will buy it all for approximately 16.55 cents on the dollar. That is how I speculate the hardship for America starts and they did it themselves by electing a greed driven idiot (read: Donald John Trump). A stage that I at present speculative, in part presumption. But in this greed driven tactics are a lot more easy to foresee. So how is that peace stage with Russia going now? 

What can be done?
Not a lot, certain stages are seemingly already happening. As I see it the softness (aka anti-McCarthyism) on Russia will be the straw that breaks the camels back. As I see it, the masses that choose Trump are the second marker, his one sided view with both Russia and against China currently complete the picture.

Try to have a good weekend and ‘أتمنى لك عطلة نهاية أسبوع جميلة’

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August 13, 2024 · 23:48

How Presidents become sniffling bitches

It is strong, it is optionally regarded as disrespectful, but seeing the BBC give us ‘Ukraine claims to control 1,000 sq km of Russian territory’, the story (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo) comes with the underline of President Putin called stating “Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the incursion as a “large-scale provocation” that involved “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses and ambulances.”” (Source: Baltimore Sun). So how does it feel to have the shoe on the other foot?

Lets not forget 

Russia has bombed hospitals, churches, refuge’s and civilians with intention. Now after almost devastating losses the Ukraine is expanding into Russia. Ukraine is coming to Russia and calling these new lands optionally their new home. It is a little bit speculative, because there is no clear path. As I can see it, Moscow will soon have another name (my wishful thinking) and the Ukraine has already found a new home as their community building, it will be the Kremlin. It might be a little too soon for that thought. But there is another setting. The other setting is that several GRU members will be wanting a way out. Not everyone is agreeing with the picture that President Putin is painting and as such GRU officers with folders on the agreements on Pascal Hillebrand, Thierry Baudet and other like minded people will be eagerly wanted by the Dutch AIVD and media. Not to mention the army of internet troll media arrangers who are doing real damage to European, American, Australian and Canadian democracies. All that became an optional reality when Ukraine took land from Russia. 

This hasn’t happen since Stalin (1941) when the Germans started operation Barbarossa. Now there is a setting we shouldn’t dispense with, Russia could mobilise their entire army now. The problem is that they have plenty to sow into that region. It weakens the Russian forces to a massive degree. When you have an army that merely covers 70% of your country and pushing it to different areas, more areas will be weakened. The second setting is that it will take longer for Russia to ever recover. The amounts lost and the lack of a properly functioning logistics and equipment supervision, for that matter the actual availability of equipment are all matters that are strangling Russian forces. Using your finger saying ‘pew, pew, pew’ doesn’t really work on forces who have seen their homes devastated, and it was an unprovoked devastation. Being that the Russian forces are relying on North Korean and Chinese arms to an increasing degree is also not to be underestimated. 

On a sideline (making it about me), there is still the plans to ‘make’ Russian nuclear reactors go into meltdown mode. Should Ukrainian forces enable that part than the loss of a mere 3 reactors will put Moscow into dark mode, no electricity and no heating. Taking in consideration that things turn cooler in November which lasts until mid February and it stays snowy until April. You see concrete and steel buildings are nice, but without heating they nearly instantly turn into refrigerators and sleeping there is a one stop location to the death sleep. 

Frightened yet? 

That was the part Russia forgot about, and people like Vladimir Solovyov and Vladimir Molchanov forgot about. We saw their ranting on YouTube and they all forgot what happens when their turn is up. They never thought Russia could be attacked, but the aggressive nature that Russia employed since February 2022 now has a new wrinkle. As Putin announced the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, he claimed to commence a “special military operation”, side-stepping a formal declaration of war. Now that comes to bite him and his ‘friends’ will soon be a lot more afraid then they thought they ever could be. In the mean time I designed several new weapons, one to cluster down on Russian harbours and that is a nice piece of icing (DARPA eat your heart out). You see most weapons are about destruction, as such I designed a steal approach to dislodging. It seems less ‘effective’ but there is nothing as effective as taking an entire port out of commission. OK, I admit that some harbours will merely be in part less effective. Russia has a nice navy when it doesn’t work it is merely a bundle of steel going nowhere. And as they lose their Black Sea and Atlantic abilities, they will see the disaster they unfolded in 2022. Consider (merely consider) that Zapadnaya Litsa is take off the operational board, that and their Arkhangelsk become set pieces in a Russian comedy called ‘What do we do now’?

How will it go from here?
I have no idea, but the fact that the Ukraine captured land from Russia was unforeseen by everyone, Russia least of all. So when we consider “A senior British military source, who asked not to be named, told the BBC there was the risk that Moscow will be so angered by this incursion that it could redouble its own attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population and infrastructure” is decently accurate, but then Russia had bombed Ukraine pretty much into the stone age. This is the setting where we see that people stated that this would be over in 2-3 days, it is now year two and Russia is losing lands. That is the reality they fece and as such a lot more domino stones will be falling over. I am partially hoping that several GRU and FSB officers will defect the bad place they are in and come with their files to other places outside Russia. They still need proper vetting as this is a tactic that dead spies cater too (a Sun Tzu reference, Chapter 13). But it is clear that Russia has now a different kettle of fish on their table and they were never ready for that part.

So as we revisit the current losses consider how come that the 20th strongest army is setting such losses on one of the top three armed armies of the world?

When we consider that for about 5 hundred years we have seen the expedition of logistics, hardware distribution, armed forces and intelligence gathering. So how come that a 2-3 day war has become a 2-3 year war? I stated a partial in ‘On the subject of failure’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/), yet an capture the land against Russia was never a reality, how wrong I was and I was not alone there as the BBC now shows me.

All war is founded in deception, a quote that China came up with over 2000 years ago, to see it to this degree is almost unbelievable, so President Putin had clear documentation that could have prevented this. How the mighty fall.

Enjoy this day, my Tuesday ends in 20 minutes, Vancouver is just about to start their day with waffles, eggs and more. 

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July 14, 2024 · 07:21

The Iranian ploy

I saw the article (at https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-threaten-riyadh-aerial-footage-key-airports) stating ‘Yemen’s Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with aerial footage of key airports’, the New Arab with the text “The video, titled “Just try it”, contained images of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, King Fahd International Airport in Damman as well as the ports in Ras Tanura, Jizan and Jeddah” is a possible ploy. I do not doubt that the Houthi’s (with generous support from Iran) is adding a ploy of threats to their limited tactics. It is clear that Houthi forces can bring something to the table, but I believe that this is nothing more than a ploy. A ploy that could have teeth, but I do not have the required contacts or information to see how serious this is. We see an additional setting with “The threat to Saudi Arabia by the Houthis comes amid reports that the government and Houthis failed to strike a fresh prisoner exchange deal”, which is fun because this was a deal between Houthis and the legitimate Yemen government. So this is all about posturing, or is it?

You see, a few hours later I was given through Arab News (at https://arab.news/6p5tn) ‘Iran’s new president vows balance with all countries, warns US his country won’t be pressured’ where Iran apparently made the claim “He looks forward to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries”, so there is the carrot. Iran needs Saudi Arabia in a holding pattern, whilst Iran ‘appeases’ European nations. So as I see it Houthi forces are still the barking dogs of Iran and Iran needs this, because their support of Hamas will have secondary contemplations by any nation thinking that talking with Iran is a good idea. It has not now or yesterday worked and it will not work tomorrow either. 

As Iran is hiding their hands behind terrorist organisations like Hamas or Houthi forces, we need to be weary that stability in the Middle East requires both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, they have the growing economies, the larger setting for tourism and the options of uniting Arab nations. The problem is that Iran is a problem. They are crying like little girls as they are denied a larger seat at the Arab table. The only small friend that Iran can rely on is Qatar and they have growing issues with Hamas. How that plays out is beyond me but in this setting we have Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Iraq. They are all playing nice and as I see it, there is not to much love for Iran in this. Qatar is the one successful nation that has been playing a dangerous game, so what happens with them is up in the air. I reckon that the Houthi’s are set to the threat to Saudi Arabia. In this my feelings are that if one attack on a civilian target is done, the might of the Saudi forces will bluntly retaliate against Houthi forces. This has the one complication that Iran has to either commit or desert Houthi forces. This is the ploy as I see it. Iran cries loudly towards Europeans that they are so willing to discuss peace, but they are under the hammer. It will be something like that. So the Iranian ploy is unlikely to work. Europe has enough problems with Russia and Russia could be of little use to Iran. Russia has only one carrier left and they need it in their Ukrainian tactics. But this is about Iran. They are losing ‘useful’ friends a lot faster than they are happy with. It is in that setting that the Houthi threat is (as I personally see it) an Iranian tactic. 

They have to play nice with some people because they are about to learn the lesson Hector Malot taught us with ‘Sans Famille’ and Iran is rightfully worried. You see when the coins come down Iran will have to put up or shut up and they will lose a lot of face in the entire Middle East, sitting at a table where the stabilising points come from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. That is why (my personal point of view) Iran need Houthi, Hamas and any other player that Iran can place in the field with deniability. It is why I said that whatever Palestine comes through, it will require the eradication of Hamas. Because it will be them who will terrorise the building projects in Saudi Arabia. 

So how can I prove any of this? Well the history of Iran is one. Their actions towards Houthi forces is another and the Iranian actions are right after the threats from Houthi forces. I feel that one ploy is enabling other actions. 

But for the most in this, I am merely speculating. So enjoy this Sunday.

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July 4, 2024 · 20:03

In the beginning

Two issues came to light, the first one is about an American cop. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72ver6172do) where we see ‘A Bugatti car, a first lady and the fake stories aimed at Americans’. We are given “A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election, a BBC investigation can reveal.

A former Florida police officer who relocated to Moscow is one of the key figures behind it.” We knew this, it is nothing new. The Dutch company Trollrensics is actively hunting down trolls and illustrating all the fake news we see (well most of it anyways). This article brought a small art to light that requires actions by both Amazon, Google and Microsoft. You see the BBC gives us “But before the truth could even get its shoes on, the lie had gone viral. Influencers had already picked up the false story and spread it widely”. This is a dangerous setting. Influencers are all about the traffic, they mostly lack integrity and have no clue on the desire to gain followers and their desire to get their golden YouTube sign. 

It is time that the United States and the European Union start to pressure these tech firms to chastise these influencers. If they cannot give ample validation of how they got the evidence how they verified the authenticity they get the full brunt of the consequences. If they are found spreading fake news, their Google rating is diminished, their video’s are all downgraded. And their video’s are skipped in searches unless a person asks for this (former) influencer by name (at which point several people can find the seekers). It is a little crude but the Russians are becoming too much of a nuisance. Oh, and by the way if they follow through on the threat to bomb the Netherlands, I will put my nuclear deterrent (a solution to make a nuclear reactor meltdown) on every BBS in Chechnya. See how they like that condition. Russia made enough enemies, if they have to protect every nuclear reactor in Russia they will lose 15% of their deployable troops protecting buildings they never had to before. Actions are needed and no one is doing them, they are all concerned with the bottom line. You see spreading fake news and false information is not a freedom. In this day and age it is a duty of everyone to not spread fake news and misinformation. Now I understand that not everyone is able to distinguish fake news from real news. I usually seek two official sources (the Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, Arab News, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times) there are more but you get the gist. The complication is John Mark Dougan, an American ex-cop. Just questioning. Why would anyone in Florida relocate to Moscow? No matter how valid his reason is. As we are given “an AI-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the US election” we are given the notion that this is all about Trump (my speculation) and it goes from bad to worse. As such I need to do something. I am not a man of action (when you pass the 60 mark that happens) but I have a decent imagination to look outside of the box. Russia has 38 active nuclear reactors. They collectively have 200,000 people working there. Consider that the Russians would need to check them all, secure them all. That implies thousands of troops. Then they need to inspect all new arrivals. It will be a nightmare I reckon. In the mean time they face Chechnya and Pro Ukrainian Russian troops. Plenty to worry about and with the solution out in the open, the Russians get a new danger and optionally their other enemies come out of the woodwork. 

But that is another matter. For now we need to take care of the influencers. They are the first hurdle to stop traction of fake news. In this Amazon, Google and Microsoft could change the rating of anyone spreading fake news, Google especially. Put their ratings to minus 150 and the influencers seize to be a relenting problem. Remove these accounts and their flocks disperse. Now I am not sure if Google can do that. You know that any account holder of a Google/Youtube account has rights. Just changing this on the fly does not go over well. But Google can stop the fake news from spreading, they can also look at the followers of that influencer. But I get ahead of the issues. Something needs to be done and not enough (as far as I can tell) is being done. 

Enjoy the day.

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February 5, 2024 · 02:54

van Speijk paradox

It is not a real paradox, although I would claim it was one. I was looking at the Russian losses and I was looking at the Forbes article (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/complete-stupidity-and-incompetence-as-two-russian-tanks-collide-while-attacking-near-donetsk/) when a few things came to me. There was the case of a police force known as the comedy capers.

You see, when tank commanders are so ‘untrained’ optionally short sighted that we are given ‘Two Russian Tanks Collide While Attacking Near Donetsk’. Some tankers would call this utter stupidity. I am not gifted with tank experience, as such I cannot say that. But the overall the light of Russian intelligence is dimming. To see this, we need to take a look at exhibit B.

There we see that the tanks have been diminished by almost 48%, APV’s are down 42% and artillery systems 46%. The 20th strongest army in the world did this to the 3rd strongest army in the world. I spoke earlier about the logistical farce that is the Russian armed forces and on that note we see several other failures.

What is the van Speijk paradox?
Van Speijk was a Dutch naval commander and on 5 February 1831 he decided that as he could not stop the Belgiums from taking his boat, he decided to fire into the powder room and boom went his boat in the harbour of Antwerp. According to some it was beautiful. He, his men and most of his enemies stopped living in that precise moment. The Russian paradox is there as these people should have known better. Their mistakes are dealt with in Tank operations 101. As such I wonder if it wasn’t intentional. Better be out of commission than blown up. But it is speculation, I have no evidence to support this other than the little I know from the 80’s. So are the soldiers that incompetent or just scared? It is an important questions and I have no evidence one way or the other. The one part I do know is that the Ukraine send 387,940 people for fitting into body bags to be shipped back to Russia. That short war is now 2 years, some short term war and it is getting worse. With the rearmament of the Ukrainian forces and the Russian forces losing more and more hardware (specifically tanks, APV’s, airplanes, helicopters and that list goes on. Russia is losing this and the Russian troops are demoralising more and more. 

It all sounds good for the Ukraine, but there is a snag that is starting to show up. We are now mere steps away from Russia becoming desperate and that tends to be a bad thing. No matter what they do there is most likely a European impact. That is what I feel is likely to happen. Scandinavia and Germany are the most likely targets, but I am speculating here. On the upside a war on two fronts will break Russia. Their logistics are shoddy, their trained staff is mostly dead and what gets conscripted will do so without decent equipment and spring is at least 8 weeks away. All that adds up to a riddle of bad news for the Russian forces and it leads to more demoralisation on the Russian front. 

You will consider my view to be wrong and that is fine. But you just look at the Russian losses numbers and all the news from Russia and see where that point of view leads. 

Have a nice day.

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January 31, 2024 · 00:11

Forbes Foreboding Forecast

Yup, it happens. Sometimes the others are all on your train ride, but that does not make your prediction true. Yet to see this we need to take the whole image into consideration. For me I saw this come towards us like a freight train without any brakes when I wrote about it as early as September 2020. I wrote several times that these settings were a really bad setting and the outcome would not be a nice one. Then I warned that the US economy had nowhere to go, not when they insult and offend Saudi Arabia (and to some extent the UAE), as such China would gain billions in revenue. We saw last month (could have been 2 months ago), news that America was ‘worried’ about China making so much headway into the middle East. And now Forbes (at https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/01/29/the-us-dollar-is-finished-wall-street-legend-warns-trumps-and-bidens-china-nightmare-is-suddenly-coming-true/) gives us ‘The U.S. Dollar Is ‘Finished’—Wall Street Legend Warns Trump’s And Biden’s China Nightmare Is Suddenly Coming True’. Really? First off, this isn’t suddenly, I made mentions for almost 4 years that this stage was underway. The fact that the dollar is finished is not entirely wrong, but not to the degree we see predicted. Wall Street will take any stance to diminish that danger. People will end up with nothing, but the almighty dollar will sail on, even though the galleon it once had will be replaced by a simple sloop (as piracy goes). 

So whilst we get “The U.S. dollar is “finished as the world’s reserve currency,” analyst Richard X Bove told the New York Times just days after his retirement from a storied 54-year career as a Wall Street analyst.” I initially tend to agree. Yes the dollar as a reserve currency is pretty much a bye bye black sheep operation. It is the “Bove, who sees bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as winning in a post-dollar dominant world, predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy” part I do not completely agree with. You see the Yuan is and will be an important part of the global economy, but China has its own skeletons to deal with. Evergrande is one and that $300,000,000,000 issue will hinder the Chinese economy to a massive degree. Not to mention the Chinese population that is hurt by that loss. I reckon that being related to Shawn Siu in China is a lot more dangerous than being a loudmouthed disrespectful American in that region, but that could merely be my take on that situation. You see, China needs both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to get the traction to push forward. Yes, they will push the dollar of its throne and Americans with their arrogance did this to themselves, but without the Middle East China has no real momentum. That was the larger station we needed to see. I tried to warn people, but to them I knew nothing. And true, I have no degrees in economy, but I have looked into numbers for decades and I have both a creative mind to see beyond the numbers and a critical mind to question any hypothesis I have. As such I saw what is now being published as ‘suddenly’. My timeline has three years of warnings of the dangers the US and its dollar were facing. I do not have the knowledge or insight to discuss or oppose the digital currency changes, but I can tell that the ego of ex-presidents with his opposition to the digital dollar will be the end of the American economy. The digital dollar would allow Wall Street to diminish the impact the slam the dollar is about to make. If that stops the damage will be enormous. I don’t think the US economy will have any cards to play. Especially now that the EU nations are vying for the same defence contracts that were once almost uniquely America alone. With France, the UK and Germany vying for whatever spending dollars they can, China might end up with a little less, but they still have a lot of billions coming their way, all billions lost to America now and the EU is trying to get a few as well, an indoor fight between the US and EU is not one they were ready for and overall the American evangelisers are now starting to be a lot more quiet. Money talks and the US has none left. Now that the Ukrainian Russian military debate is now three weeks away from two years. A short term prediction by the Kremlin is now a setting that they could actually lose. A stage not considered a year ago and that also brings a lot more problems to the EU nations as well as America. America that has been catering to Russian needs no less and that is important as the people are now a lot more eager to accept China as the new leader. This is not some Nixon fantasy, this is the case of Wall Street deciding on what is best for the world and that is not how it works. That only has any value in the delusional mind of some. So whilst we see what happens next, we see that the power players are vacating towards the UAE. Some will go to other destinations, but the mess that they are leaving behind (not all due to them) will leave the American population without anything left. So what do you think happens when the dollar collapses and 200,000,000 Americans see that their savings are gone. Do you really think they will will side with Trump and his multiple multi million lost lawsuits? Consider that no one has a clear view on how much he owns. Some state that he only has now less than 3 billion and he was dropped from the Forbes 400 list, he came up $300,000,000 short (a lot more with the lawsuits he lost). To give you some reference, Elon Musk is apparently 96 times wealthier. He has 9600% more wealth than Donald Trump and that is the person Americans pissed off, all whilst he has the foundations of a solution for the energy shortage they face. So how is ego holding up? When the UAE engages with that solution, America will come up short in funds and energy. So the ‘suddenly’ setting wasn’t there. This has been out in the open for up to 4 years. And that picture goes from bad to worse soon enough. 

Could I be wrong?
It is a fair question and I ask myself that question pretty much every day. It is not indecisiveness, it is not doubt. It is about verifying the numbers again and again from whatever reliable source I can find. Verification is everything. Richard X Bove and I got to the same conclusions via different ways and as such I wonder why others were never on that page. Why was the media not all over this? They were so ready to protect Elizabeth Holmes and Sam Bankman-Fried, but this they didn’t see? Ask yourself that question and wonder what else they got wrong and more importantly why did they get that wrong. You might come to some conclusions that will scare you. Mainly because you all worked towards your retirement, but how many funds saw the golden future that the dollar bonds brought? When that falls flat your retirement will be gone and there is no coming back from that. I think that a few banks in America, as well as Credit Suisse Group AG (now part of UBS), isn’t it interesting that none of them were properly investigated by the media? They all gave the same story, but no one looked into how many dollar bonds these banks had. It might be nothing, but I doubt it. You see, Credit Suisse was handed a $54 billion lifeline. The fact that ANY bank needed THAT MUCH money was never properly investigated and it wasn’t just them. We see all the claims, but to need a 54 billion lifeline implies that that piece of rope is made from weaved platinum threads with diamonds. When did you ever need a lifeline like that?

And these places all matters, because that is to some extent the impact that the dollar pushed for, at least that is how I personally see it. There will be plenty of people stating that I am wrong, but after 4 years I have been proven correct too many times. Let them come up with verifiable data and clear sources to prove me wrong. I dare them.

Enjoy the day, my Wednesday just started.

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December 31, 2023 · 07:56

Here come the drums

That is the setting I saw yesterday. In the Netherlands We hear from the General of the army, or as some would say ‘hoogedelgestrenge generaal Martin Wijnen’ In most not so Dutch linguistic settings we can suffice with General Martin Wijnen. (At https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1850033/dutch-army-war-russia-eu-nato), in the article ‘Dutch must prepare for war! Army boss BEGS nation to arm up ‘as Russia getting stronger’’ we see the clear warning. There are too many indicators that Russia has no intent on stopping with the Ukraine. I used the British Newspapers Express. They weren’t alone, but at times we need to change venue. Whilst we might not agree with “The Dutch army chief has raised the alarm that “Russia is getting stronger” and that leader Geert Wilders, and his counterparts in the EU, needs to better prepare the Netherlands for war with Putin’s forces.” The clear truth of the matter is that Russia is about to mobiles up to 2.2 million soldiers. It is the old ‘dumb marketing strategy’ throw enough resources at a problem and the problem goes away. No matter how strong the Ukraine is, with that many additional soldiers they can just throw themselves at the Ukrainian battlements until the Ukrainian bullets run out. Not really the humane approach, but we never bothered to call Vladimir Putin out on that quirky detail did we? 

We were also given “The Netherlands should not think our safety is guaranteed because we are 1,500 kilometres away [from Russians].” I tend to agree. The fact that several nations are now sending weapons to Russia is also a factor. Russian junk is about to be replaced by working materials. The Ukrainians might have sunk a boatload of drones, but that is not all that is going there, is it? 

In addition we were given “The Netherlands is one of the founding members of NATO and is a staunch backer of Ukraine. Last week, outgoing PM Mark Rutte announced that his country would be sending Volodymyr Zelensky 18 F-16 fighter jets to fight the Russians.” Russia is unlikely to take kindly to that and there is no indication just how ready Germany and Poland are for an direct conflict with Russian forces, that 1,500,000 meter barrier is not going to last long is it? The best outcome is to make sure that the Ukraine wins this war, but at the speed that Russia is bombing the Ukraine, there might not be much left of it in the next 26 weeks. After that? I fully believe that the Ukrainians will fight for every inch of the Ukraine, but when there is nothing left one of the few options remaining is to fight Russia in Russia and that is a very different war, one they are less equipped for. 

As such I believe there is a lot of merit to the words of Martin Wijnen. The fact that the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands is pro-Russian will not help matters much, although the moment one assault on the Netherlands takes place he better change direction, or become the first Regent to face the deadly mobs since the execution of Johan de Witt on August 20th 1672. But not to worry, I feel certain that the media, YouTubers and TikTokkers will be there to cover it all in 4K.

The words of the general sound true. There is a worry and the worry should not be trivialised. No matter how it continues with the Ukraine, Russia needs a win, it needs one soon and Putin needs one to appease his Kremlin cronies. 

We have seen the damage that the Ukraine has dealt Russia, but they have a lot more and some of it actually works. My biggest fear is that Putin takes a lesson from the Hitler playbook and takes out a city in the Netherlands, not unlike was done on May 14th 1940. To think of that, how long until France, Germany and Belgium face that very same danger? I have no idea, and I reckon the rest of the world would instantly turn against Russia, still, there are too many ‘what if’s’ in that equation and I (for the most) hate what if settings. It fuels too much super good, or super bad thinking, extremes away from the expected and most unexpected norms. It fuels the wrong part of the thinker, which I personally believe is never a good thing. 

In all this General Wijnen is not alone in this setting, but I do believe too many nations remain silent on the matter. Germany spoke out for strengthening their armed forces, but in this setting the United Kingdom did not, neither (as far as I am aware) did France and for the most their Legion Etrangere is the only one ready to face whatever comes their way. And these 9,000 troops, their Legio Patria Nostra (or as I gigglingly call them, the well educated fathers of the night) could deal with about 40% of the total of Russian forces, but what would be left for the Dutch? OK, still enough, but France and Belgium better get ready to consider the darker setting of Europe as we consider the words of General Wijnen. 

So now on a lighter tone, it is time for the same joke I have been telling friends for well over a decade.

Q: Do you know the definition of sex 2023?
A: Todays is the last day to find out.

Enjoy this final day and stay safe around fireworks.

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December 27, 2023 · 14:46

The carrot game

This is not a setting where we get entertained by Jasper Carrot (British Comedian). No this is about another game. To see this we need to take a look (at https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/26/us-military-training-saudi/) where we are given ‘US to Provide Military Training to Saudi Arabia Under $1B Deal’, you see, this sounds fine. Especially as training a fighter pilot (allegedly) costs $5.6M to train an F16 pilot and $10.9M to train an F22 pilot. The numbers add up quickly and as the article states there are more options there. What took me was “The latest agreement was made amid reports that Washington is considering the resumption of offensive arms sales to the Middle Eastern country.” When you look at “considering the resumption” that is the carrot. It is too late for that, or perhaps I need to be slightly more direct. Or you commit, or you get the fuck out of the way. That is the setting. America has wasted more and more and now they either commit or see their economy collapse, because without Arab billions (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) with support and additional sales to places like Egypt this party is taking of towards Asian borders. Now I do not care either way, I get no commission from any of this (alas). But the carrot game is too dodgy at this point and America needs to wake up. This is the final stretch. Baseball players call this the bottom of the ninth and the game was spoiled, crushed and squandered by egocentric players, diva coaches who were considering THEIR limelight and that list goes on and the media had a part to play as well. Now America needs to either commit or vacate the area. This is seen in other ways too. Defence One (at https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/09/lockheed-hungers-f-35-sustainment-deal-pentagon-says-it-might-not-happen/390380/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl) gave us in September ‘As Lockheed hungers for F-35 sustainment deal, Pentagon says it might not happen’. A stager I reported on months before that is now coming to fruition. Lockheed (under Pentagon scrutiny) have priced themselves out of the market. As such consider “Lockheed Martin says a new five-year deal to sustain the F-35 fleet won’t be reached by the end of this year.” Now consider what you saw with considering a resumption. So one side cannot afford and the other side will not deliver. How is that not a recipe for disaster? And lets be clear, with the Russian strategic gambles the USA and its NATO partners need to get as much revenue as possible. Especially as news is increasing that the Ukraine is low on ammunition. A stage no one wants to see. Because the one fighting team (team Ukraine) is the only thing preventing Russia to expand into Europe. They might be down on troops, but the Kremlin is not short of delusional aspirations. As such the defence blunders that are coming needs to be avoided and as such there is no space for “considering the resumption” it is way too late for that. On the other hand, the more revenue that is headed for the French coffers, the more France can contribute and that would be novel, the US has not depended on France since 1784 when it was still called the Kingdom of France. Then America didn’t have any revenue, now it has nothing left. As such there will be consequences for America. Which ones? I cannot say, I cannot even hazard a guess. But there are still the notions of France and some kind of alignment to the BRICS constellation. To what degree? There is no open data supporting it, but the news had been spreading. Russia is the only one against it, but as things go there won’t be much of a Russia left. On the upside as Russia is sending its troops to the slaughter there is every chance that Russia (whats left of it) ends up being the first matriarchal nation on the planet. If it happens it only took 3 years to get there. 

In these rocky waters and these larger changing stages America has little choice to either put up or shut up. Feel free to disagree, but look at all the data, do not trust the media by itself and you will see that there is a hiatus on data on several levels and the media never covered that? How come?

As such the NATO players need to reconsider who gives them what evidence and who exactly benefits the spreading  of filtered news. It is a simple enough question. Enjoy the few days between Christmas and New Years Eve.

Enjoy.

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