Tag Archives: USA

April 19, 2023 · 14:38

Too big a workforce?

Yes, there is a speculative setting where this happens. The BBC revealed yesterday (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65305165) the clear message ‘EY cuts 3,000 jobs in US blaming ‘overcapacity’’, and I wonder what really the issue is. You see when you have to shed 10-20 jobs there are all kinds of explanations. But when you shed 3000 jobs something else is going on. I wonder what it is. And there is plenty to question. You see on their website they claim “Apply now. We recommend applying early as we will be recruiting on an ongoing basis, and positions will close once filled.  View the current opportunities below. There are a small number of programs which have closing dates. Once we open for those programs, their closing dates will be listed underneath the program.” My issue is that when you shed THAT many jobs, you need to adjust your career page as well. I personally think that this is a job for HR, but that remains debatable. When you shed 3000 jobs and your career pages imply that it is business as usual another setting comes to mind. To be honest I am not sure what it is, but something is there. In the 90’s and ten years ago it was in IT and several other places about shedding the expensive staff members and getting cheap labour (graduates). Now there are a few issues. The first is that Ernst and Young has over 360,000 people. This means that only 1% is affected and that happens. Yet this only affects US staff and the number I gave you is global. There are issues in banking and that could be a setting, but whatever I give you is speculative and might not apply. But in the US we see that there is slowing but they are surpassing the numbers, as such these numbers do not add up. But the BBC gives us a handle. We are given “The move comes as corporate America is bracing for an economic downturn”, OK I can get along with that, it merely implies that EY was ahead of the curve which is never a bad thing. And they are not alone, we are also given “Accenture is slashing 19,000 jobs or roughly 2.5% of staff globally, while McKinsey is reportedly cutting about 1,400 roles or 3% of its employees” and there is more bad news, but not for EY. You see, in an age of aging losing that much staff might become counterproductive later on. We see the events that call for an economic downturn and that is fine, this happens. But in other news we see Europe going on (slightly less god than now) and the Middle East and Asia is making waves, larger positive waves. I would think that retrenching staff in the latter two areas might give a raise to better times down the track and optionally sooner. OK, I am pretty much alone in this. Most BI people say I am bonkers and they might be right. But the idea of losing qualified staff in a world where relocating them might offer more seems weird. You see, only two days ago the Financial Times gave us ‘Dubai court orders KPMG to pay $231mn for Abraaj fund audit failure’ according to the courts KPMG dropped the ball, which in sales terms means that their customers are looking around. That could be good news for EY and we do get that these grounds are not the same, but to get parties shifting into these areas implies that other areas need filling up and losing 3000 staff is not a healthy way to fill places and relocate people to fertile accountancy lands. Even as we see that most are shed from the consulting division, the truth is that most consultants are versatile, there are grounds of not losing that much staff, but that is purely a personal view on the matter. Consider the cowboy stage of cyber divisions, the need for consultants are more and more pressing, not merely on the Cyber part, but on the price-tag setting. That part could need addressing quite soon and that is where we find that EY cannot vie for such clients as they just told 3000 people to vacate the building. That I how I see it, but I could be massively wrong here and I am not an accountant. And when you see that Accenture is ridding itself of 19,000 jobs implies a larger failing all over the field. In 2003 Telia shed thousands of jobs, as far as I can tell they never rose to the old Telia, but that was merely me seeing it as I personally saw it. Is it the wrong thing to do for EY? I cannot say, but to shed 3000 jobs in the US implies more than just Economic downturn, it implies that they are already losing customers and long term projects, or they aren’t gaining long term projects, which implies that there is another issue at EY, not merely overcapacity. Yet, this is a personal view on the matter and I have no idea on how they could solve it, but as I see things around me I wonder what consultants are doing not merely to get the job done, but how to get new clients and that is the stage for the next article, because the story I wrote on February 24th 2022 ‘Red Flags’ gets a new lease on life. About that more in the next article, lets see if people actually learn from their mistakes.

Have fun (I will)

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April 12, 2023 · 07:13

A weird choice of thoughts

I have them at times, not merely during the daytime, at times the ones at night are even weirder. I was in what I think was a Google location. It was extremely sunny and warm, as such I think I might have been in California. I was in the foyer of a building, it was open and spacious. Almost like a circle, there was a circle in the centre where receptionists were working and assisting people. Around me were windows, they had a lower part and an upper part. The lower part was about 80% of the height of the room, the upper part was about 20%. The upper parts were different, they had stained windows, each window had a Google logo in stained glass style, the logo was surrounded by milky white glass. It had an interesting effect on the foyer, the foyer was bathing in colours. Each logo was adding colours to the room, one part was a little less bright, this logo was not surrounded by milky white glass, but by black glass, it was the Stadia logo. As I looked around the foyer I saw the Drive logo, the YouTube logo, the cloud logo, mail logo, calendar logo and several more. I started looking at the people and they all looked stressed, they looked worried, but I could not see a reason. The circle only had 2 of the 5 computers switched on. I started to walk around and I walked up the staircase. People looked frantic they were talking, but they were also looking though papers. I saw in one hall that only one row of computers was switched on. The conference rooms were empty, TV’s were not switched on, the coffee corner had its coolers switched off, or so it looked. There were people all around but it was a population of less than 10% of what was made room for. 

As I walked around I saw more and more people nervous, some scared but not of each other. It seemed to me that there was a massive shortage of electricity, an energy crises unlike any one I had ever seen. I had seen the energy issues on Crete, but it was a minor issue, this was a lot worse and a lot more intense. I could not feel the het, but everyone around me was sweating. The rooms had a distinct Google feeling like I had seen them in Sydney. I looked outside but I saw no ocean, perhaps the angle was wrong. On the other side I saw high rises nearby, at least a dozen buildings. Not sure where I was and for some reason I could not any of the conversations. It was almost like they were talking alien, or I was not hearing correctly, but there conversations were not meant for me, or I was not part of that side, I was merely there to see, to watch and to observe. People were massively underdressed, dressed like they knew it was a 40C degrees day, thin flimsy and mostly covering their bodies in this both men and women had taken heed of slight covering is better than melting away, and with the obvious lack of cold drinks they were relying on water, or so it seemed to me. This is nearly all I saw, I merely heard the words ‘That’s enough’, the only two words I heard in the entire dream. Was someone showing me what will be? It was only a dream and I have no idea why I saw this. I had seen data all over the place, but is this the setting the US will face in the near future? Places that cannot continue because the energy crises is overwhelming places? I have no idea, for me it was merely a dream, but one that felt uneasy, it lacked the comfort I usually have in a dream. A setting where a government due to inaction needs to find a new path, a new approach to satisfy the need of corporations and they all need energy a setting we saw for years but the greed driven were telling everyone that there would be enough time, there would be options. It seems that this setting has been passed and passed without activity. I wonder what will come next and as I am trying to make a tally, Texas, California and New York will need at least two, two and one nuclear reactor to keep on par with the energy requirements, the alternatives will not roll out in time and these reactors would not be build in time either. Yet as I consider that part, I realise that the EU and UK are in similar settings. They have a lack of energy resources and the shortage gap is merely increasing.

It was a weird choice of thoughts to have, but I think it has been fuelled by the decrease of oil, the numbers and numerous tables and charts I was looking at and I think my subconscious filled in the blanks through a story. And it is about to get worse for these places, summer is coming and that implies millions of AC units draining energy from June onwards. In this Texas and California are the strongest places, but New York is another place. The New York Times gave us 11 hours ago “The high cost of natural gas and electricity is prompting many to prepare for outages and shortages.” Yet personally I feel that it is not only the price of electricity, I feel that there will be an actual shortage and in that setting, for the warmer summer states late July through to mid September will be challenge to say the least. In California and Florida, those with theme parks will have their own set of problems and a lack of electricity will be the smallest of issues. A stage that would come, but now it comes sooner and even my dreams have no answers. In part because I cannot tell when the shortages hit, in part because I know very little of the energy solutions that nations have, it is not my expertise, but I do realise that energy can be seen in what is available and what is used and that is a simple tabular setting and as such I understand the shortages that several will face in a summer state in the northern hemisphere and as such when that happens a lot will happen and it will happen all over Asia too. 

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April 11, 2023 · 13:01

It’s a point of view

This happens all the time, we all have a point of view and others have their point of view and they do not completely align. There is no right versus wrong issue, or there could be, but there is every chance that some views are based on three points. Consider a rectangle or a square, they both have points A,B,C and D, but we only see three of them, and with three you can tell whether it is a square or a rectangle, you merely miss one point and base your view on the other three points. It does not matter which point is missing, you get a decent view, but someone who sees A,B and D will draw slightly different conclusions than someone who has B,C and D. Neither is wrong, but they do not complete align because the events that surround these 4 points are different. This is how I see it and as such I took great interest in the Australian Financial Review (at https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/opec-s-gamble-can-the-global-economy-cope-with-higher-oil-prices-20230410-p5cz7f) where we see ‘OPEC’s gamble: can the global economy cope with higher oil prices?’, so whatever you see next, whatever difference I have, I am not dismissing THEIR view. I like their view, I might not completely agree, but they will have another point plotted towards their view. 

And we start with “the risks for the Saudis and the global economy are high if they push it too far. “We have high inflation, economies potentially going into recession, and this is a situation where you need lower oil prices for a short period of time for the economy to recover,” says Adi Imsirovic at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), who once ran oil trading at Russia’s Gazprom.” It is not the first part of the story but it matters. You see, the UK, EU and US are in the metropolitan areas a mobile workforce. Adi Imsirovic can cry for chap oil all he likes, but the setting of ‘lower oil prices’ all you like, but people have been playing that tune for too long and NO ONE is looking at Brent oil on this. You all became a import commodity economy and that comes at a price, especially when you piss off the exporters. In the UK take a look at the laughable CAAT, they were all crying and not to mention Just stop oil group. Now you see the impact of higher oil prices and the players did this to themselves. You cannot push around an ally (Saudi Arabia) and then demand cheap oil, a commodity supplier who can close their own supply valve. 

This also impacts “Abdulaziz also managed to confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices after the recent banking crisis sparked new fears about the global economy.” In a stage I warned for for well over two years, the term “confound those speculators who had bet on falling oil prices” is a joke (and a bd one at that). You see, this danger was out there for some time and betting? That is what you do in Las Vegas where the odds are wild and when the US and EU (UK too) decided to make the odds wilder by insulting their proclaimed ally the writing of higher oil prices and less oil was on the wall. And all this was BEFORE China saw its path clear to give the bird to the USA (that gesture with the finger). As such Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman did exactly what was required for the good of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it might not reflect on the needs of the cheap oil deliverers, but they could go cry at the fountain of Brent oil but the media does not report on that, Brent Crude (operating on behalf of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell) might be ‘too big’ for the media. Yet I have not seen anything regarding Darren Woods and Wael Sawan regarding dropping oil prices. Why is that? We see all the fingers towards Saud Arabia, yet Shell beat profit expectations towards $40 billion and ExxonMobile  beat it with $56 billion. And both broke expectations above 150%, as such I have issues with the entire OPEC setting. And when it comes to ‘lower oil prices’ who bet on this on Brent Crude lowering them? I am willing to set whatever I have at present ($0.70) that the amount of gamblers will add up to ZERO. Which makes me $25.2 (not enough for my new apartment). 

So when we get to “Now the question is if OPEC’s surprise cut will raise prices too quickly for the health of a fragile global economy, especially as central bankers continue their quest to tame inflation” no one is looking at the one element EVERYONE is ignoring. Inflation is also tamed buy banks having their donkeys on a row and with Credit Suisse and a few American banks we can say that this is not the case. So when we consider last week revelation by the BBC ‘Swiss probe into UBS takeover of Credit Suisse’ as well as the news only 2 hours ago that there is something brewing with the Viva Energy deal at $1.15 billion, I reckon that inflation issues are a lot larger than merely through oil and it is time that banks are properly looked at, because they are the so called power players in any inflation deal and no one is stopping certain players. Why is that? And when you consider the larger station, no one is acknowledging that commodities are at the power of the supplier and pissing off one of the biggest suppliers whist you shun two others for whatever decent reason (Iran and Russia), you need to reconsider the stupidity of any action against the third player who basically has had enough and now that China sees a larger playing field, they will take that option, especially if they can do it for a few Yuan more. That too is missing from the equation. That gives us a new discussion or consideration. So here is the new setting, it is not whether we were looking at a square or a rectangle, but we were looking at three points of an octagon/polygon. We were seeing the points correctly, but the stage was not properly marked and that makes neither wrong, it makes us both incomplete and consider that I am a mere blogger without a economics degree and the other player is the Australian Financial Review (and many other newspapers), who has the better excuse for not seeing the whole field? Consider that for a moment and consider the people pointing fingers at Saudi Arabia, why are they pointing there and not in other directions as well. In all this I believe that they have the proper reasons, can the same be said for Brent Crude? I will let you decide.

Enjoy the day.

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April 9, 2023 · 11:44

Presentations of what exactly?

That is where my mind is at today. This is not some setting of she said…she said. This is not one against the other, this is about what is real and what is mediated fake. There is a gap there that is as wide as the Grand Canyon, but the media is intent on making that gap seem like a little bump, something that can be discussed, even if they have made no headway in over two decades. 

To see this, we need to look at two sources. The first source is the Middle East monitor (at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230408-cia-chief-visits-saudi-arabia-to-express-frustration-about-iran-rapprochement/) 

Source 1
Here we are given ‘CIA chief visits Saudi Arabia to express frustration about Iran rapprochement’ with the text “Burns told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the US felt “blindsided” by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria – Washington’s global rivals – according to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter. It cited a US official who said Burns discussed cooperation on intelligence and counterterrorism with Saudi officials.”

This is followed by my personal view

“Bill Burns, in my personal view you achieved fuck all, in two decades Iran was able to push, your governments actions had no impact and over the last three years we saw Iran successfully smuggle weapons and gear to Houthi Terrorists. The media (with a little push) ignored the presentations of Colonel Turki Al-Maliki. Your organisation ignored facts, your organisation drowned voices and all for the good of the United States at the expense of everything. It is also a personal view that the CIA has been acting to achieve maximum destabilisation so that the USA had the big presentation to be the solution to everything Middle East based. How long did you think that you could continue that path?”

I believe now and have always been of the mind that Saudi Arabia needs to do what is best for its country and its citizens. On a side note ‘rapprochement’ means “an establishment or resumption of harmonious relations”, which is presently not the case and might take some time to get to that level. So as we are given “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counter-terrorism and other intelligence matters” I have a few other issues, it is my personal belief that the US merely wants to know everything that they can (which makes sense) and they are doing it at the cost of everything and anyone. In this we can point at the case of the alleged thief and alleged traitor Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri. So how are they working together whilst Saad bin Khalid Al Jabri controls a CIA portfolio of a lot of money. So how close is the USA working with Saudi Arabia? It is merely a question, but the numbers are starting to add up and now that Saudi Arabia has decided to lower the oil deliveries by a million barrels, the US economy is starting to hurt really bad in America. It will not be visible for at least 60-90 days, but by the summer the US will be in deep waters and they need a solution, their inactions are going to be the cause of their own downfall. 

Source 2
The second source is Reuters (at https://www.reuters.com/world/cias-burns-reaffirmed-intelligence-cooperation-saudi-arabia-visit-us-official-2023-04-06/) where we see ‘CIA’s Burns reaffirmed intelligence cooperation on Saudi Arabia visit – US official’ we get to see here “The United States and Saudi Arabia for decades have cooperated closely on counterterrorism and other intelligence matters” the rest could be seen as bland bla bla. 

The US is now in a larger stage of being pushed out of the Middle East. I made references to this for at least a year, first failed strategies, then the failed actions regarding Yemen and now the economy will falter. The options for the US are now falling away faster and faster and they did it to themselves.

Saudi Arabia must do what is best for its nation and its citizens and the events we saw in the last 5 years give rise to the fact that the USA is no longer the best option. And whilst we lay blame (not me), consider the actions of the last 5 years including the UN essay writer. Consider what WAS real and what might have been, and we were given what might have been too often and now that China has been successfully courting Saudi Arabia other issues will come. Iran is considering a new stage where it cannot fight Saudi Arabia AND Israel. It is therefor in a stage to make islamic choices towards Saudi Arabia and that allows for Iran to focus on Israel. It does not sound good for Houthi terrorists, but that is life. And now the US will lose a lot more than they counted on and the damage is getting worse, a lot worse. Their arms industry is losing grounds to China, which implies that that well is drying up faster than a saucer of water in the Rub’ Al Khali. What happens next is anyones guess but as I personally see it, the US policies have failed and now they need to rectify largely or be cast out of the region, on the upside, the US can still cater to Tel Aviv and whatever space they have.

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April 8, 2023 · 00:07

It has holes

There are a number of issues with banks, the latest one is the one I left alone initially. It was the Credit Suisse – UBS issue. 

The initial issue are the holes, like a Swiss cheese, it has holes. In the cheese it is accepted as it is part of the process. But with banks? How many holes can we allow for? Now, the ice is thin here. I am not an economist and I am no banking person, So what do I know? Well, I know infrastructures going back to my Intelligence days, I have seen companies getting gobbled up and in some cases for all the wrong reasons, you see those parts were on paper pleasing, but the reality of it was that reality bites and that is when you feel like a Japanese guy gobbling up a live fish. That is seemingly OK, until the fish eaten is a piranha and it starts eating you from the inside out.

So lets get back to the first article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65177258) where we see ‘Credit Suisse investors angrily confront bank as chairman says sorry’. There we see Ulrich Korner in some stage of apathy. He reminded me of a Dutch political comic in one of their newspapers (a long time ago) where we see “When we get to item 4, it would be best if at least one of the board members start crying”. It felt like a farce, a joke for the stockholders who are about to lose a lot more than they bargained for. The text the BBC gives us is “The loss-making bank had already been struggling for a number of years after a series of scandals, compliance problems and bad financial bets. Mr Lehmann told investors at the Annual General Meeting that management had a plan to turn things around but had been “thwarted” by fears prompted by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US.” I personally feel like this is misdirection. I personally believe that the US bond issues are stretched on several fronts and as I wrote in previous articles, how did Credit Suisse stock up on the Basel III front? What was the safety gap? It is my personally belief that there was close to none (or at least a lot too little), and now Credit Suisse will be removed and their banks will hoist the UBS logo soon enough, especially with the scandals and bad bets that were made. 

Yet that same day, the Irish times (at https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/2023/04/05/ubs-chair-says-credit-suisse-integration-will-take-up-to-four-years/) shows us ‘UBS chair says Credit Suisse integration will take up to four years’ that is for banking in these volatile times a massive risk to take and it is not taken lightly, as such I believe that people like Janet Yellen would have been on the phone with a few people. When the American bonds go, the US economy will go and I reckon they will take the Japanese and EU economy into the abyss with them. It is a personal view and I have nothing to prove it with, but the weak response from the media implies that these sources got told to play it cool or face consequences. It is a speculation, but when we take the view I had in the past on Shareholders and stake holders, I belief that I am decently correct and it is a personal view after all.

The Irish Times also gives us “Even with downside protection in the form of government support, there’s a “huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Mr Kelleher, who is from Cork, said in prepared remarks for the bank’s annual general meeting on Wednesday.” The setting is that UBS is getting the bank for three billion Swiss francs. One source tells us “How much a company is worth is typically represented by its market capitalisation, or the current stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. Credit Suisse Group net worth as of April 06, 2023 is $2.76B.” When we see other sources we get “Total assets CHF 531 billion and Total equity CHF 45 billion” this was last year and they have a little over 50,000 staff. I reckon that the bosses there are working on their resume and I would suggest the word ‘scandal’ is written correctly, because involvement in sandal does not go over well in the financial sector. And when you see these numbers, it is all sold for 3 billion? And we see no serious questions from any media. 

So what is left of the assets? What are the bond numbers and total value per nation of bonds acquired. There is no insight of that. Just like the meltdown of 2008 no one is to blame and the US is fixing the carper so that it can hide more dirty laundry. So how long until the people realise that their economy is largely based on an empty egg shell? 

The Irish Times also gives us “Shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held” this implies a mere 4.44% of value return for the shareholders, yes their value goes up butt this level of saturation is an issue and I reckon that more banks will follow at some point. Banks will become bad investment for the tax write off and the shareholders will lose out. Don’t get me wrong, I have no real sympathy for them, this is the outcome of shares and stocks. Sometimes you lose. But we need to look back to 2012. In the Netherlands we saw ‘SNS Reaal mulls bad bank for property operations’ (source: Reuters), it was their too big to fail operation and the people were not happy, it was a setting of real estate that was just beyond believe and now we get a similar setting but now it is not real estate, it is banks that are the bad investments and how many of them are holding bonds? The fact that the media never properly investigated this implies that I am a lot closer to the truth than even I am happy about. 

And the last part is giving us ““I understand that not all stakeholders of UBS and Credit Suisse are pleased with this approach,” Mr Kelleher said. “However, all parties, and in particular the Swiss authorities, considered this solution the best of all available options.” – Bloomberg” yes that sounds good, but I have a list (and that is just the Credit Suisse naughty list).

US tax fraud conspiracy, 2014, 2023
Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, 2015
Mozambique secret loans scandal, 2017
US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violation, 2018
Climate controversy, 2018
Espionage scandal, 2019 (debatable issue)
Greensill Capital, 2021
Archegos Capital, 2021
Forex manipulations conviction, 2021
Drug money laundering scandal, 2022
Suisse secrets leak, 2022 (debatable issue, I still believe it was an NSA activity)
Russian oligarch loans documents destruction after invasion of Ukraine, 2022
Social media rumours, 2022 (debatable)

So 10 issues and 3 debatable issues, but the debatable issues do leave a mess at the front door of Credit Suisse. In all this Credit Suisse is walking around without clean hands, and the hands must always be clean. So does that warrant a CHF 550 billion downgrade? I honestly d not know and there is debate on some of these sources. I get that there will be differences in sources, but this much? This does not make sense, but it makes a lot more sense when we consider where the priority of Janet Yellen is and it is not the bank, it is the USA. Taking her away from the issues and letting it all be phrased by Bloomberg is not acceptable, not in the least. As Baby Herman states “This all smells like yesterday’s diapers”

As I personally see it, this bank issue has holes like we see in Swiss Cheese. 

Have a great day!

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April 4, 2023 · 09:07

Weird Wall Writing

Yes, that is what it amounts to and it is making me giddy. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555, a mere 8 hours ago) gives us ‘Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output’. Why is it making me giddy? Well that is simple. On March 29th I wrote ‘The snooze that does not wake’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/29/the-snooze-that-does-not-wake/). Then there was ‘Oil in the family’ on November 23rd (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/23/oil-in-the-family/) where I stated “Its games are now backfiring, should oil deliveries decrease by as little as an additional 1 million barrels US economy could implode with all the nightmares and trimmings that come with that.” The messages go on and on and it goes well before ‘Two Issues in play’ which I wrote in November 2018 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/11/20/two-issues-in-play/). As such I have ben pointing to this danger for 5 years, but people all around me were shouting that I was mad, that this would never happen. Now the BBC gives us “the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said: “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty – and we’ve made that clear.”” Oh, and how many oil farms does that person have? The US played the commodity war for decades and it has been to their favour for too long, now that idiots playing with the government credit card increasing debt after debt, the commodities that they do not own become an anchor. Oh, and that being said. How much oil did Brent keep on American soil to keep the price down? Last I heard 89% is exported. So before you scream, look at ALL the facts. So when I see “This surprise announcement is significant for several reasons.” Was it really? I warned for this danger for years, the last warning was a year ago and I reckon that the 1 million barrels a day will go to China. A stage everyone disregarded. So whilst we all cry against these mean mean Arabs, consider that America has been playing this game for favours for decades, now that the tables are turned it is suddenly a problem?

The second laugh I got from “Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the oil price surge could make the battle to bring down inflation harder. However, she said that rising oil prices won’t necessarily lead to higher household energy bills.” Hah! Tell me another one, I got a bridge for sale, nice view on the Sydney Opera house. Yes, the price hike will not be immediate, but there will be a price hike, I feel very certain about that. Consider that 1,000,000 barrels a day might not seem massive, but there is already a shortage, as such the hike will come no later than 90 days for now (which is a personal speculation).  

Here the writing was on the wall and Aramco (as well as Saudi Arabia) might have had enough of the false friend naming by the US (EU too), this is their response, it is one that China has been looking forward to, I reckon Russia as well. 

And here endeth the lesson today. However I have another surprise coming up. After all these clowns shouting at me, I will make another IP Public Domain within the next 24 hours. I will show you just what Apple, Google and others missed out on and it seems nice for Tiffany (and Co) to see the impact of public domain, this time it is on Augmented Reality. Have a great day.

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April 3, 2023 · 00:48

I’ll buy that for a Yuan

It is a little unlike I stated things earlier, yet Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/program/counting-the-cost/2023/4/1/can-russia-and-china-succeed-in-dethroning-the-dollar) gives us ‘Can Russia and China succeed in dethroning the dollar?’ I cannot agree, because personally I believe that any partnership there will be facing an united front to dethrone that idea. Yet I made notions to some degree that there would be coming a new world order, America is exiting the stage on the right and with the debts they have it is game over for them. If only they had taken my warning 25 years ago and overhauled their tax system. I personally hoped that the new world order would include the Commonwealth (I am commonwealthian after all). Here, in Al Jazeera we see more but not the names. In some sources I saw a list of countries. Yet I personally believe that this list is most likely to include China, Saudi Arabia, India and personally I would include the Commonwealth, not merely the UK. And the issue is that China could pull this off, the US and EU are too weak, they are all hot air and they aren’t getting the job dome, they are both too deep into debt and the EU is dragging half a dozen members along who are slowing them down, they all want a slice of the pie and aren’t contributing enough. 

Yet in my view, I never considered dousing the dollar (perhaps my folly), and with oil being the ignored requirement Saudi Arabia becomes a required ally for that new order. India with its consumer base of one point four billion cannot be ignored either, that and the case that they have the ability to fill IT infrastructure needs nearly everywhere. There might be one or two other players China needs, but they will feel that inviting the Commonwealth might do the trick, as Canada in the west and Australia in the east will settle issues the assassination triangle will be filled. You know, I wrote about it. Segregation, Isolation, Assassination. America segregated itself with silly settings of free speech (Karen’s anyone? Proud boys and that list goes on), now they are one step away from becoming irrelevant and obsolete, if only they had acted these last to years. We saw someone start an insurrection, claiming to take the nation back. This act is now 2 years old and still the people behind it all are walking the streets free with in the end a porn star ‘saving’ America. That time is now showing to be their downfall, inactions from too many sides is hurting them bad and all along China kept moving slowly step by step and now that China has infrastructure and defence deals their goals are almost met. The wet merely grinds towards a halt through inactivity. The news is all around us and the media is carefully ignoring a lot of it. The benefit of stake holders I speculate.

I warned of parts of this well before 2019, well before covid and now that timeline is nearing completion. That all sounds nice, but am I correct? That would be a fair question, but consider that the larger deals out there involve China and Saudi Arabia, who of them has the US dollar? I am not saying this is essential, and as long as there is an alternative, these two might seek the alternative. And consider the two refineries that are commencing the build, where will the oil come from? Exactly, from Saudi Arabia and the peace process that China instigated will give them even more oil, we might shout loudly, but in the end, the US gave us the expression that was hanging around too many necks. Money talks and bullshit walks. And now others are telling the US to keep on walking.

I merely hope that this new order will exclude Russia (who is now presiding over the Security Council) and it will include the Commonwealth. Now consider that the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) has been around since 1945 and we are given “The Security Council’s five permanent members, below, have the power to veto any substantive resolution; this allows a permanent member to block adoption of a resolution, but not to prevent or end debate.” Now consider that NO ONE seemingly had the idea to remove the veto right of any permanent member who instigates a war for the duration of that war? For some reason that never dawned on any of them and the 5 members (China, United Kingdom, Russia, France and the United States) merely accepted that setting? How is that working out for them now?

The United States is now massively boxed in and to a much larger degree it is all due to their own inactions. As such there is every chance that the mediocre 5G technologies will soon see a lot more of Huawei, because they have been fully rolled out in China and Saudi Arabia, who had until recently (I didn’t recheck the numbers) a 5G network that is 700% faster than the US, how is that adding up to your view of a technology first nation? To be behind Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Canada? Al Jazeera raised a point that most were happily willing to bury anywhere, but I believe it is slightly too late for that. 

Enjoy the day and for your consideration there is a Canadian 16 year old blasting a whole range of records and she set at least two new world records. According to CBC, she is nowhere near done yet.

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March 30, 2023 · 22:38

Welcome to the OC bitch!

Yes, this sounds strong and it was part of a script. The series threw that phrase out for weeks as the OC was gaining traction. It drove Misha Barton to success and that is pretty much all I know about the series. We take some facts to the bank, we count on it, we depend on it. But then I got to thinking. OC also stands for Organised Crime and at present can you tell the difference whether  it is Organised Crime or a bank? That is not a joke, it is a serious question. Al Jazeera gives us (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/29/french-prosecutors-raid-five-banks-in-massive-tax-fraud-case) ‘French prosecutors raid five banks in massive tax fraud case’. There we are given “banks, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and HSBC, faced a compensation request of more than $1bn” we also get “an earlier report in Le Monde newspaper, said Tuesday’s searches had also targeted Exane, which is part of BNP Paribas, and Natixis, the investment bank arm of French banking group BPCE” in the late 80’s someone told me “To be a thief, you need to be good and agile, if you lack these skills you could always become a banker” well we have been seeing that a lot since 2008 onwards. And now we see “it was impossible to put an exact figure on the scale of the fraud but said the banks together faced an overall compensation request of more than $1bn, including fines and late interest payments” this had been going on (as far as they could tell) since 2014. So what is the difference between Organised Crime and bankers? Is it a mere case of legislation? So after we are given the sleep creating news (by the media) regarding United States of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. We see more cases regarding Fraud? So when will someone wake up and realise that banks are either properly regulated or they are allowed to collapse and the shareholders lose their funds. So when we see advertisement from HSBC how climate change ignores borders, can the next advertisement please state “Climate change, not unlike our alleged involvement in fraud is happily ignoring all border issues” 

Perhaps it is more on point than the so called ‘awareness’ vibes they are spreading now. And when I look at half a dozen advertisements from HSBC I can apply the same strokes to the text and the advertisement becomes a lot different, it becomes a clear path of opportunity seeking. Now, I cannot tell how involved HSBC is, but the raids seem to imply issues. You see the banking system has been skating on the edge of legality for so long (for the need of profit) and when we think back to the billboard days when we got all the anti-Brexit announcements, I saw that there was no mention of Bank fraud, as such, is this hypocrisy or is it like adultery. Everyone expects you to lie about that? Think about that for a second. It is the ‘expects you to lie’ part. In 2018 UNSW gave us ‘Heavy penalties are on the table for banks caught lying and taking fees for no service’, I would add to that that anyone lying is barred from banking services forever. There needs to come a time when these issues need to be dealt with. And the fact that a raid on five banks was done, implies (not proven) that there is a massively large problem out there. So why do we allow these bankers to continue? 

It is a serious question. Uber is short on people, there is seemingly a shortage in supermarkets, let the disgraced bankers fill those holes. Just a thought.

Meanwhile German Deutsche Welle gave us (at https://www.dw.com/en/paris-banks-raided-in-100-billion-tax-fraud-probe/a-65151312) ‘Paris banks raided in €100 billion tax fraud probe’. This seems to be the larger stage (and several media had nothing on this). So when we consider “the investigations are linked to legally dubious “cum cum” practices in which banks create overly complex legal structures as a way to allow wealthy clients to skip out on tax liabilities for dividends. Authorities say Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, BNP Paribas subsidiary Exane, Natixis and the British banking behemoth HSBC are suspected of aggravated tax fraud laundering. Moreover, BNP and Exane are suspected of aggravated tax fraud” can you honestly answer whether there is a difference between Organised Crime and Bankers. We could argue that most bankers have some form of Filofax and are therefor Very Organised Crime. Yet that is seemingly the largest difference at present. Yet this text also gives us another side and that is important. It is seen with “complex legal structures as a way to allow wealthy clients to skip out on tax liabilities for dividends”. That raises the question whether the law was ACTUALLY broken. The Al Jazeera article and two others did not clearly give me this, so there are issues which reflect back on the old premise I made 25 years ago “The tax systems are in dire need of a complete overhaul” This view was mainly on the US and EU, but the setting still applies. And when we see terms like tax fraud and tax fraud laundering and the stage is ‘suspected’ the question becomes “Were laws broken?” You see if that is not the case, these bankers were merely clever sneaky bastards (aka: administrators) and there is no law stopping them (just like there is no laws on Karen’s and idiots). They are all allowed to stay, visit our surroundings and do their business and they are allowed to be as creative they can be within the law and the law is the issue. We might think they are hiding behind the setting of ‘overly complex legal structures’, but that isn’t illegal and we need to recognise that. We need to recognise that the laws and specifically tax laws have been blatantly ignored by all who should have ben overhauling them. That is the heart of the matter and that is under debate as I personally see it. Yet for over 3 decades politicians avoided that subject and now that governments are all running out of funds they are desperate to keep the nose away from their necks and that time is runing out faster and faster. That is merely how I see it.

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March 29, 2023 · 00:44

The snooze that does not wake

It started some time ago, but the recollection that The Conversation gave me was enough. I saw the message around 05:00, as such I needed some time to recollect the information. But we get to that in a moment. The Conversation (at https://theconversation.com/as-longterm-partnership-with-us-fades-saudi-arabia-seeks-to-diversify-its-diplomacy-and-recent-deals-with-china-iran-and-russia-fit-this-strategy-202211) gives us ‘Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its diplomacy – and recent deals with China, Iran and Russia fit this strategy’ It sounds simple enough, but it is not. You see, the story gives more than one quote that is important. I prefer to focus on “Riyadh and other Gulf capitals as leaders began to question U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that was the gemstone not the only one, but this one matters. You see, you cannot deny allies the needs they have and then make demands from them as an ally. Like cheap oil. Saudi Arabia wanted to grow its national defence systems and America said, well,  one part said yes and then congress said no, America said no. So now we take a small trip. A trip to ‘The Persian Gulf match’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/06/06/the-persian-gulf-match/) which I wrote on the 6th of June 2019, almost 4 years ago. There I wrote “The actions of the American US Congress have shown that what they regard as being an ally is not what an ally is; it is not even what a wannabe ally would consider to be. As such apart from your advancement in technology and infrastructure a much larger foundation for your national defence is seemingly essential in the immediate future. The shown delays that the European Union have shown to be regarding Iran, Turkey and terrorist organisations like Hezbollah give rise to the essential need of China to become part of that solution.” It was part of a concept letter addressed to the Saudi Royal family. I wrote this almost 4 years ago and now we see this coming to fruition. Saudi Arabia is on the verge of buying a renewal of military goods from China, not the EU and not the US, setting their coffers back close to 20 billion. And now the stakes are increasing.

This is seen when Reuters informs us that Saudi Arabia is agreeing to build a new petrochemical refinery in China. The stage is that the two refineries will be able to process over 500,000 barrels a day. The fine print is not known, but I am willing to make a serious bet that China will soon get its hands on 500,000 barrels a day extra and I feel certain that this will come off the allotted amount for the EU and the US. I warned several times of this danger between 2019 and 2023, look it up, it is done in clear print (at www.lawlordtobe.com). I did not see the refineries in that mix, but for some strange reason Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud will not tell me what goes on in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, what a surprise. But the larger stage is now taking shape. First the defence industry, then other enhancements and now the reduction of oil towards the west. That was the danger stage we all faced since 2019, and US congress and other Americans wanted to play egomaniac, they were the strength of the world. Guess what, you need money to pull that off and America only has debts, which now is about $30,000,000,000,000 and there is no way back. That stopped a year ago when America forfeited billions in revenue and that list is merely increasing. Now that China has a firm grip on opportunities all over the Middle East their goal is merely increasing. And I tried to warn people of this, I tried to warn the UK to step in or lose it all and as the Typhoon didn’t make the Saudi choice, I reckon they are missing out too.

The setting is “U.S. credibility as a reliable regional partner” that is what President Biden needs to resolve and he needs to resolve it now, any opposition from Congress and the problem merely grows and accelerates. That was what I saw in 2019, that is what is happening now. A stage clearly foreseen and ignored by the US windbags. To be honest I had hoped to serve Saudi Arabia in some capacity and optionally score 3.75% commission, which does not seem much, but over a billion it is still $37 million and if the work is for more than a billion, that bonus merely increases and assures me of a nice retirement parachute. 

So how long until that refinery is build? How long until we get hit by the small print that well over 500,000 barrels of oil a day will go to China? I honestly do not know, but I reckon that this news gets heralded when the refinery is around 95% complete. The timeline? I cannot tell, can you?

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March 27, 2023 · 02:58

Speedy escalation dot who?

It started with something I wrote on February 3rd 2023 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/03/as-the-tide-turns/) when I wrote ‘As the tide turns’. There was some grumbling when I presented “some governments will start to draw out papers where Russians without permanent residency or citizenship will not be allowed to own anything” it was a natural progression, as such I felt decently certain that this would happen. Plenty did not agree and that is fair, but with Oligarchs all over the field, trying to secure what they can in places like Dubai, the future was decently fluidic. 

Now less than a day ago, I see a Tweet from Lithuania that Russians cannot get a VISA, they cannot get citizenship and they cannot own property and I think Lithuania is only the start. This will go further and now we get to see another side. This could be a larger tooth in a set of juridical teeth that is about to do something about Russian organised crime in many nations and they all it all to Vladimir Putin. Not only did his actions undid a century of goodwill for Russia, it in the same trend it undid the degrees of freedom of Russian oligarchs and now Russian organised crime will get a massive slap to whatever they owned and Lithuania seemingly started that stage. A stage that I saw coming because it is what I regarded as logical continuation. As such London who reacted the slowest of all now needs to give full steam or they need to answer questions like ‘Why did you do so little?’

Did I see the future?
Well, that is up for grabs, I presumed that certain steps are a natural continuation and this was one, to be honest, I had no timeline in sight, one usually does not have that with near natural time lines. But I expected it to be in the works and for a country like Lithuania to take that step has also larger implications. Russians have an interest in Lithuania, it is their smuggle route Vilnius – Kaunas – Klapeida that is now also under fire and that closes the routes to places all over Europe, they will now need to rely on other routes and there is not that much options via Poland, they already despised Russians long before the Ukrainian issues started, as such there will have to design new routes but where? I have no idea, that is not my forte or my data driven direction. 

No matter how I see it, larger changes are coming all over Europe and when the US does the same jump pro Russian political forces in the US will run for cover and they will be running everywhere that is petty much a given. 

So speculate or presume all you care and all you desire, but you got the news here first and yes, I do accept that Twitter is no verifiable source, but similar news is coming from the Baltic News Network and it seems that 16 hours ago Estonia started a similar direction, as such Russian routes and Russian opportunities are drying up and when you consider the US, these two nations have done a lot more in a month than the US has done in over a year. That part becomes visible when you investigate what corporations are still active in Russia, the answer should scare you.

Have a nice Sunday

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