Tag Archives: Brazil

December 5, 2025 · 02:47

The bear loses

It was a setting that has been 1380 days in the making. Perhaps some will remember the publishing stunts by the Russians on how it would be over in 48 hours, now 1380 days later the Russians have suffered dramatic losses. 

1,177,370 soldiers and 1140 in the last 24 hours. This reflect upon something else. You see, by some standards (not mine, I lack an economic degree), “The economy of Russia is a high-income, industrialized, mixed and market-oriented emerging economy. It has the ninth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth-largest economy by GDP. Due to a volatile currency exchange rate” that view seems reflective, you see ‘an industrialized, mixed and market-oriented emerging economy’ seems no longer applicable. That market economy requires bodies, targets for industry and targets for Market orientation. These bodies are now cold, dead and going into the ground. Its population is said to be 143,600,000, but over a million are less than able to perform. That implies that the target is now medicine, and not abundantly stated industry material. And at this time, the Ukraine is making short work of the oil pipelines, so the money isn’t rolling in either, or a lot less than expected. And a day ago we were notified that ‘Russia turns to gold reserves as sanctions squeeze deepens’, so as President Putin states only thee hours ago ‘Putin says Russia ready to take Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region ‘by force’’ (source: Al Jazeera) and we are given that they lost at present 11396 tanks, 23685 armored combat vehicles and 34809 artillery systems (including the 29 they lost in the last 24 hours) I have no idea what he is talking about because his defense forces are in shambles. So how many of air defense systems does he have left? He lost 1253 of them as well as 430 airplanes and 347 helicopters. What will he do, send more boys to the front to dies as well, or perhaps he will depend on North Korean soldiers? They did such an awesome job the first time around. Perhaps mercenaries? Oh no, the Wagner Group as a fully independent organization is no longer active; it has been largely dismantled by the Russian government as said by some sources. Well there are all the prisoners that he can use, but that is a two edged blade.

So how does he think that he can get Donbas as Russian territory? And even if he gets it, it will be for hours at most, he really made an error sizing the Ukrainians up and at present it is getting more and more assistance from NATO. Some sources say that Moscow “may sell up to $30bn (230 tonnes) in gold during 2025, with a further $15bn (115 tonnes) possible in 2026.”And at present that is the bare minimum, as Russian oil is not flowing in any direction (as far as I know) there will be more losses and that makes the Ruble nearly as valuable as the Rupee, its value around $0.11 cents and when that gold is gone, the Ruble will be worth even less. That reminds me of the Weimar setting of 1923, in that setting one dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 marks

Is Russia going that same way? It might be a novel idea for Brazil, India, China and South Africa to drop Russia from the BRICS pack (making it BICS, a nicely written setting) As the Russian gold reserves and its currency goes, so does the limited alliance that it is building with these nations and in that setting they cannot use a weakling like Russia in their midst. You want to debate this? Russia has been unable to defeat the 20th largest army in the world. Its ICBM’s are exploding seconds after liftoff (2 at present) what else isn’t working in Russia? It tanks are scrap metal in the Ukraine, it is stated that Russia has 4,300 total military aircraft and the Ukraine made rubble out of  777 of them, implying that Russia is down 20% on its flight power, against America I might have accepted that, but against Ukraine? And now in their weakened state it is poking NATO members through hybrid warfare against the NATO member states, which includes sabotage, assassination plots, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and disinformation aimed at destabilizing the alliance and disrupting aid to Ukraine. And the Hybrid settings are getting more and more exposure, as such the friends it has will turn away from Russia the instance their ‘cushy’ lives are in danger. 

As such there is much to come and when NATO wakes up, I sincerely think that the days of the Kremlin are numbered. Now that Russia is so weakened, yes it cannot fight on two fronts and with Germany and Poland and under those conditions, St Petersburg will be lost nearly instantly, and that puts both NATO and the Ukraine in a direct line towards Moscow. A story President Putin will not be able to tell the Russian population and that sets a new premise in Russia, the losing story.

So how will the world see this? Will we see posturing by President Trump? Will we accept that the Ukraine and NATO were adamant in solving the Russian problem, because that is how I see it evolve. A simple setting where the bear loses it nearly all and this was a story that was 1380 days in the making. Have a great day.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 1, 2025 · 03:03

Where’s the outrage?

That was the question I raised to myself when I got the news (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c741mpdyw9no) where we see ‘Venezuela condemns Trump airspace closure warning’ with the text “Venezuela has condemned US President Donald Trump’s statement that the airspace around the country should be considered closed. The country’s foreign ministry called Trump’s comments “another extravagant, illegal and unjustified aggression against the Venezuelan people”.” President Trump might think he is a rockstar, but in what universe does he get to tell another country how to use its airspace? Is American in a state of war with Venezuela? And beyond that, between the United States and Venezuela there is Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. So where’s the outrage of the media condemning his word? We also get “Trump wrote on Truth Social: “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”” Apart from this rather weird person to let go of his CAPS LOCK key, and when I see the text “Some Democratic and Republican members of the US Congress have expressed anger that Trump has not sought legislative approval.” And the operative word is ‘some’ the fact that President Trump is telling the people of Venezuela that their airspace is closed is weirdly appealing. For that matter, as America has (in light of yesterdays article) “U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced Monday it will not publish the delayed initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, originally scheduled for Oct. 30, due to a prior government shutdown” (source: Bitget) as such, as it is already a month late and might that report show (I have no idea what it shows) that the American GDP has now moved from first to third position? Would be a nice gesture that his beautiful bill is now set against a GDP lower then the EU. But that is for later. What I do despite is the absence of media reporting on the Venezuelan setting and reporting on where the American people have the seemingly right to close another nations airspace. Want to do that to China? That be a real joke, it will have 1.43 billion people laughing their pants of. 

And with the setting that comes next a few things are ‘loose’, we see “Trump’s comments come just days after the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned airlines of “heightened military activity in and around Venezuela”, leading to several major airlines suspending flights there. Caracas then rescinded their take-off and landing rights. Venezuela’s foreign ministry urged “the international community, the sovereign governments of the world, the UN, and the relevant multilateral organisations to firmly reject this immoral act of aggression”, in a statement on Saturday.” On second thought, where is the outrage of the United Nations? They are probably to busy scolding Israel for acting against terrorists. It is not the BBC article that has me outraged, it is the lack of media holding President Trump to account, at the very least they should scold him on the use of the CAPS LOCK key, but that might merely be my setting, or as my mother used to say, that is an issue that can merely be found between your two ears. And she might be right on the CAPS LOCK thing, but I digress, I am not alone in this. Venezuela also gave us “Venezuela’s foreign ministry urged “the international community, the sovereign governments of the world, the UN, and the relevant multilateral organisations to firmly reject this immoral act of aggression”, in a statement on Saturday.” And as far as I see, Venezuela is right, there is no official war called from either Venezuela or the USA and as far as I know, US Congress is not the one saber rattling. 

And it is the silence of the UN is even more annoying, I am not sure how useful they are, but their usefulness might have become a thing of the past. Any delay by them calling America to order is another day that the usefulness of the UN is now a thing of the past and global budgets can get go of the 130,000 people that work for these organisations, as well as cut the budgets of these people in New York, might be another let down of the economy in the USA. 

Overall I wonder where the media outrage is in all of this. For me there is no real setting for Venezuela, it is a country 15,272 km away from Sydney and its 28.3 million people have no call on me, or does it hold any interest to me, but I believe in any nation to exercise its freedom and the the skies over Venezuela belong to the Venezuelan people, not President Trump. Should he be closing it due to an impending war, then he forgot to tell US Congress about it and should the USS Gerald R Ford and the 15,000 soldiers start a war with Venezuela, they better be prepared to deal with the assistance that Venezuela might get from its neighbors Colombia, Guyana and heaven forbid Brazil. A setting that might be the start of World War III, all that because he wasn’t eligible for the Nobel peace price? So you might think that I am overreacting, but the setting is almost prime to that, with the setting so close to Cuba, the mission of Steve Witkoff, United States Special Envoy to the Middle East might have had a second setting when talking to the Russians in regards to the Ukraine. And the might be a little frightening, because this reminds me of the 1997 movie Wag the Dog, where the President of the United States is caught being inappropriate, and what happens when this is a different spin, one that takes focus away from the abysmal economic state America is at now? Is it too far fetched, or does this scenario sound eerily true?

I have no idea what is going on, but to send the USS Gerald R Ford and 15,000 troops tend to make people nervous, especially when it is this close to Cuba and I wonder why the BBC is not asking a few loud questions on this setting. And as we consider the setting “to combat drug trafficking” is an overreaction to say the least. It might be true that the BBC reported that “other leaders in the region have welcomed Trump’s stance”, so who are they, or is it merely the president of Argentina? The lack of media in all this should get all your outrage, because Latin America is merely one step away from WWIII. If Venezuela gets any support, that setting is merely one step away, if Russia at all gets involved (because of Cuba) that fence is brought down and in that case this world has a new problem and I reckon that to avoid this Steve Witkoff might have had a different agenda then the world was told about in Russia. So whilst the Guardian reported (4 days ago) ‘US representatives call for Trump envoy Witkoff to be fired after leaked Kremlin call’ I wonder if this ‘leak’ incurred so that no one considered closing at the Venezuela setting in all this. It is all speculation, but the 15,000 men and that dinghy called the USS Gerald R Ford to fight drug dealers seems like a massive overreaction, as such I wonder what truly is going on and the media absence to all this is making me wonder more and optionally is making my speculations a little more extreme than even I like it to be. 

In terms of end setting, it might need more ‘examples’ and in this I call for the Running Man, a movie after the 1982 book by Richard Bachman (not the Vancouver hockey goalie), in this Arnold Schwarzenegger takes the lead as a blamed police officer. It is relevant as the movie starts with:

“By 2017, the world economy has collapsed. Food, natural resources and oil are in short supply. A police state, divided in paramilitary zones, rules with an iron hand”

considering that Richard Bachman wrote this 43 years ago, it is interesting that he is off by less than a decade. Quite the achievement if you ask me (I know, no one asks). But that setting is seen all over this field and Venezuela isn’t even the largest setting here, but it all adds up to that story and we are given these ‘truths’ by two movies is a little too awkward to consider. 

You all have a nice day, 360 minutes until breakfast for me.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

November 28, 2024 · 21:49

The edge of darker creativity

There is a dark corner. It is not a unique setting, it is in everyone. The problem comes when any person gets their creativity and taps into that darkness. Is everyone on board? You see, I just tapped into this and what I created scared me to near death. When we see the news, we see that there is an armistice in Lebanon. Reuters reported a mere 12 hours ago: “A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah held on Wednesday under a deal brokered by the U.S. and France as people in both countries began returning to homes in the border area shattered by 14 months of fighting.” Sounds lovely doesn’t it? Well, in under an hour all these ‘Lebanese citizens’ came out in droves waving Hezbollah flags. As such I wonder how long this seize fire will hold. Some Hezbollah idiot will think that it is a good idea to send a missile into Israel, to gain fame with others. And Israel will go berserk and strike out. That is what realism tells me. We do not know what will happen. The minds of terrorists tend to go where most are fearful. And there is a second sight. Someone has to appease the will of Iran and someone will.

As such I came up with the Bullet Plus, as you can see it seems like a simple bullet, It is however not intended to shoot someone. In the bullet is a small canister, as the bullet impacts, the canister will break and the fluid will be released. You can have any kind of fluids there. There is Sarin, Novichok (Ask the Russian GRU for details on that one), there are also diseases like pulmonary diseases. Not directly fatal (like Novichok) but now we get an area issue. You see, pulmonary poisons will affect people in an area and hospitals will pick up on these. The result of a stray bullet. Consider shooting Sarin into an Hamas building, suddenly we start getting a range of intel we never had before (Mossad didn’t have it either). Sarin is too deadly, Novichok is an option and others are options too. You see, we might know 1-2 Hamas agents, but the 5-9 support staff remain unknown. Now they come out of the woodworks. We could use something like Caesium chloride, it is highly toxic and it cannot spread from person to person. Direct interaction is needed. For this you need to look at the Goiânia accident in Brazil (1987). You see, all these terrorists and their sympathisers might scream ‘innocent, innocent’ but at some point even Saudi Arabia will need to deal with them. They need to simply because Iran will make them act in some way against Saudi Arabia. It is not a case of ‘if’ it is merely a when. And for those thinking this is an Israel issue, consider the border wall of Gaza with Egypt.

The H3 terrorists will need to be dealt with at some point. Hamas is a certainty, Hezbollah is becoming more and more needed and when these fall away Houthi actions are most likely to become zero.

Feel free to disagree with me but in all this consider that this started on 7 October 2023 with Hamas attacking a pop concert. And in all that time how many refugees were ‘allowed’ into Egypt? I will let you count the articles that have been published on this it will be less then usual. It is so much easier for the media to go anti semitic on us all. Emotional flames score more digital dollars then simple truths. That is the truth of the media. Anyhow, I decided to let the dark corner of my creativity speak and I came up with this. Perhaps DARPA had this already, perhaps they did not. I already scored 5 wins over DARPA, so my ego is just fine. If my HOPplusOne solution works I have 6 wins over DARPA. There is only so much my ego needs, for the rest I merely think of other solutions. In this, I still love the idea that I designed a solution to meltdown nuclear reactors based on a snow-globe. You probably never thought that this ‘device’ had instrumental options did you?

Anyway, we all hope that the seize fire holds, but I am not holding my breath. No matter how you slice it, 66% of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total. Consider how many Hamas people are ‘suddenly’ awarded a nice place to live and in this and the BBC gave us last week “Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said Hamas’s office no longer had a function because Qatar had suspended its mediation efforts on a Gaza ceasefire deal, although he stressed that it was not permanently closed. The Palestinian official told the BBC the Hamas negotiators had adjusted their presence in the region and were keeping their locations secret to avoid embarrassing host countries.” So why isn’t it permanently closed? I reckon that Qatar is feeling the anger from other islamic nations and Professor Dr Salman al-Dayah, a former dean of the Faculty of Sharia and Law at the Hamas-affiliated Islamic University of Gaza has issued a Fatwa against the October 7th attack. That is a bitter pill to swallow for Hamas. As such Hamas needs a different setting and remaining underground (optionally somewhere in Qatar) makes sense, because there are very little hiding places in Gaza left. When you add it all up my solution has a few things going for it. The largest issue is that it is becoming important to see how the claws of Hamas reach out and optionally the same goes for Hezbollah and Houthi. The nice part is that if this plan comes to fruition Iran will have to desert these three players because the impact of undeniable evidence would haunt Iran to the largest extent and the only thing going for these three players is that Iran under Qasem Soleimani was much better arranged then now. Now we see more and more issues out in the open and soon there is no denying what happens and the other players hurt by Iran will strike back at that point. How they strike back? That remains to be seen, but at that point Iran will lose whatever friends it thought it had in the first place. That is merely my point of view. 

Have a great creative day, possibly a lot less dark than the one I am having now.

Leave a comment

Filed under Law, Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 31, 2024 · 10:20

If you Musk, you Musk

That setting is a much larger setting then we realise. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y3rnl5qv3o) gives us ‘Musk’s X banned in Brazil after disinformation row’ and I honestly don’t get it. He has the premise of gaining billions closing in on a trillion in business. We get to see “X, formerly Twitter, has been banned in Brazil after failing to meet a deadline set by a Supreme Court judge to name a new legal representative in the country” and that is merely the beginning. Judge Alexandre de Moraes has suspended X (aka Twitter) until that is done and in addition Musk sets all fines that are outstanding. I have no idea how much that amounts to. The larger premise is that Musk is sitting on IP that could gain him close to a trillion, if only these people had woken up. The current setting is that this case could invigorate a much larger anti-Musk stage and Twitter (aka X) could be banned from a whole range of nations with anti-Musk feelings. That is not a given, but Brazil just opened that door. Basically any nation with a right wing nuisance could entertain that premise diminishing Twitter and as such Jack Dorsey could buy back X/Twitter for 125 million after selling it for $44,000,000,000 not a bad deal for a 3 year gap. I surmised that it was only worth a maximum of 24 billion at that time. As such Jack Dorsey could be making a killing on the deal whilst the value of that company doubles in the first month he regains control. They say that a foolish billionaire and his money are soon parted, but here that expression takes on a whole new meaning.

And it got so far because Twitter/X, Meta and Telegram because they would not set the larger premise. There needs to be accountability and they all were eager to avoid those. Now we see that social media is being thumped on by a whole range of governments. There is such a think as accountability. I already said so in 2013, now we see that governments have had enough and this first case is likely to open the floodgates. 

If is an attack on free speech? No, I do not believe it is so. People should have free speech, but not under the guise of anonymity. If you disagree, say so, but the digital world sees a lot more flames and digital waves when they can say things without revealing themselves. It is the stopgap for chaos to spread their wings. The media has everything to do with this and they are equally guilty (like ‘unnamed sources told us’). So when was that at any time a long standing solution?

Now Elon Musk is cutting his own fingers and soon the solution he had for the world will be largely ignored, and if accepted there will be massive constraints, which would cost him up to 20% from what he could have had. In my book 20% is a lot and when you get close to a trillion it is a lot more than I have ever seen (many like me have that setting).

There is another side to this. At this point Mastodon, Reddit, Threads, Bluesky, Discord, Tumblr, and Truth Social will get to have a place to gain market share against the accounts of Twitter/X. It might not be much, but it is a start. As more nations follow suit there places will gain momentum whilst Twitter/X could she well over 10% of the accounts and even when reinstated, the time gives the others time to get the advertisement revenue that Musk losses. So how will he bring that news to the people who invested in that 44 billion dollar caper? They want to see cash and when that doesn’t come Elon Musk must put up his own cash or lose a lot more. That wasn’t hard was it?

And with the early threat that Musk is pulling out of Europe (October 2023). It becomes an early grave for Twitter. China has its own settings and that will become an increasing pressure whilst one person (aka Elon Musk) gets to live with the invoked byline ‘2022-2025 where has my $44,000,000,000 gone’. A weird setting for a person who at one time had the products that everyone on the planet wanted. 

The higher the climb the harder they fall. Enjoy your day

Leave a comment

Filed under IT, Law, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

October 15, 2023 · 20:58

Is it that bad?

That was the first question that came to mind. I was ‘reading’ Mirage News (at https://www.miragenews.com/blinken-meets-with-uae-president-sheikh-mohammed-1103623/) where we see ‘Blinken Meets with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed’. It is there where we are given “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met today with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi to discuss the terrorist attacks on Israel. The Secretary expressed appreciation for the UAE’s clear condemnation of Hamas’ heinous attacks on Israeli civilians and continued diplomatic engagement to prevent the spread of conflict”. Now, from my personal point of view (and an utter inexperience) of dealing with royalty, the fact that the nation is thousands of miles away (roughly 11,325,624 cm) I would rely on that invention by Alexander Graham Bell, or its  mobile equivalent. This was about something else. If you use the Gaza events to break the ice, you can be decently certain that the real situation is a dire one. 

It is anyones guess what the real deal is. BRICS is a decent thought, as they are gaining a lot of steam, all whilst dumping USA bonds. The second one is technology advancement. The fact that China now has the upper hand in the UAE (and Saudi Arabia) for construction projects, for 5G deployment projects and with defence spendings. These three add up to hundreds of billions of dollars and the USA is no longer the party in the ‘A’ column. And the part of desperation? This is seen with “commitment to building a more integrated, secure, and prosperous region, and reaffirmed the importance of the strategic partnership between the United States and the United Arab Emirates”. As such my question becomes show me five examples where the United States has set a stage of integration with the UAE in the last 5 years? Give me also 5 examples where the United States has made the UAE more secure? That is merely two examples out of a decent bag filled of examples. The United States has dropped the ball several times all over the Middle East and now that the countdown to collapse has started the United States is eager to clamp onto any connection so that they can delay the last part of the countdown. 

I get it, plenty of people doubt me, call me crazy or call me a loon (the last part might be true). Yet the larger stage in all this is that the US is reaching out to whomever they can. Last month it was with India, China in June and Brazil in march. The US is seeking out the BRICS members and trying to get a hand-up in their collapsing economy. When we realise that “as of August 2023, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of 2.92 percent on its debt” and when you realise that this amounts to well over 900 billion dollars a month all whilst The U.S. government has collected $3.97 trillion in fiscal year 2023. We get the numbers. When we see the interest as the mark, we see that 100% of taxation merely covers 22% of the interest they have accrued. I saw this moment in 2017, the setting was a mere exercise of an abacus and it was a finite moment. This is the consequence of inactions and political haymaking all whilst these politicians never had a hoe to collect the hay. An exercise in prototyping and conjecture is merely a training exercise, but it was sold as a product, just like these software developers in the 90’s. Over 99% of those did not survive their presentations. Now we are mere inches away from seeing it happen to a government. China played the long game, China wins. It is simple mathematics and they have relied on it for almost 900 years. Most nations (especially in the EU) diid not follow that example for almost 400 years. 

So the question ‘Is it that bad’ is a serious one and I am not the best source of answer here, but the media is not informing you on how serious matters are either, are they?

Enjoy the Sunday that is almost over for me and starting in the very very west (Vancouver).

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 28, 2023 · 13:49

The speculated danger

Yes, that is where I am. Whatever I am about to give you, there is a decent amount of speculation involved, as such there is every chance that there are issues that aren’t covered and people with that kind of knowledge aren’t speaking out at present. Not to debunk my speculations and not to enforce it. I believe that the filtered media we are getting is now likely the more danger we face. This all started last night when I saw ‘UAE records hottest day of the year as temperature crosses 50 degree mark’ (at https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/08/27/Temperature-crosses-50-degree-mark-again-as-UAE-records-hottest-day-of-the-summer). Here we see “The rising heat in the UAE crossed the scorching 50 degrees Celsius threshold on Saturday, marking this summer’s highest temperature. According to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), the mercury touched 50.8 degree Celsius in Abu Dhabi’s Owtaid in Al Dhafra region at 2:45 p.m.” We see all kinds of heat messages, but for a place like the United Arab Emirates to give that to the readers is a little new to me and that place is warm on any usual day. This started me to mull several things over and it also made me think back to the 60’s (when I was young and innocent. Yes, I was innocent once). That year is forever marked in my brain. Not because of the year as I am not certain what year it was. Yet I remember that it was -20 Celsius. The coldest I could ever remember. In addition to the ice flowers on my window, something I had never seen before there was something else. The streets were iced. Now we had ice in the winter, I grew up in a city named Rotterdam. But this was different, the streets were covered in ice. I could literally skate to school which had never happened before and I do not recall that it happened since. This is what I would call a temperature outlier. These things happen and there is nothing strange about it. Now consider this heat in the UAE. In addition consider (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/08/10/the-part-we-seem-to-forget/) the stage I reported in ‘The part we seem to forget’ where I quoted “Within the next two decades, temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the ambition of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and bringing widespread devastation and extreme weather” (source: the Guardian) You can forget about the decennia part, I personally believe we are there now. To get that stage we need to add three elements. 

  1. “Researchers say deforestation has caused the Amazon to absorb less than half as much carbon dioxide as it did twenty years ago.” With the added “In the last fifty years, Brazil’s Amazon has lost about a fifth of its forest cover—almost 300,000 square miles. This includes at least 5,110 square miles lost in 2021”
  2. “From 2001 to 2022, Indonesia lost 29.4 Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 18% decrease in tree cover since 2000, and 21.1 Gt of CO₂e emissions” which gives us Indonesia. 
  3. “Beginning in March 2023, and with increased intensity starting in June, Canada has been affected by an ongoing, record-setting series of wildfires. All 13 provinces and territories have been affected” with a total of 13,999,922 ha displacing well over 250,000 people. With Al Jazeera (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/23/mapping-the-scale-of-canadas-record-wildfires) giving us “Canada is battling more than 1,000 active fires, and nearly two-thirds of them are out of control”

This is where the speculation starts. We have decimated our forests and the ability to regain the oxygen. Now, this is not going anywhere soon, our atmosphere has a curtain of well over 5 miles of oxygen, so we aren’t running out. But we now have a markable point where we use more oxygen than nature can correct for. The three largest places with forests are down by too much and there are side effects. The smoke of the Canadian fires, that go all through to the US will have a secondary impact

People wear protective masks as the Roosevelt Island Tram crosses the East River while haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires shroud the Manhattan skyline in the Queens Borough New York City, June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

The sun will warm us less and you might think that is a good thing, but you would be wrong and that is why I made mention of the outlier in the 60’s. I personally believe that we are about to face the harshest winters ever and it will not be one year. This will start a trend that will be a 3-7 year stretch, not all at once, but we will face at least 2 harsh winters over the next 5 years with a few more after that. Even if the forests in Canada are replanted using Team Trees with Mark Rober, it will take close to a decade to see that impact and the forest fires will return next year too. Less likely to the same scale, but forest fires are a normal setting in Canada, the three elements combined is different and new.

Some will have seen the Netflix movie How it Ends and we aren’t facing that, but the nuclear winter that follows such fires are not entirely impossible, I would go on stating that they are becoming more and more likely. The media will trivialise this and state that I am a doom sayer, yet they have never given us the real deal in this and they are unlikely to do so now. I am not saying this will happen, but I feel certain that we are heading to really harsh winters and the first one will hit us before January 2025 which is expected to cripple the UK and Europe to a larger degree. Canada and the nordic nations will not be crippled to such a degree, but they too will feel the bite of the winter that comes. In the meantime with the winter hitting us and the heat being a larger problem extreme weather is coming our way and it is coming now, not in a decade. 

So consider what I told you, fell free to check the numbers you can and be certain that you take note of the trivialisation you see in the media and take note of the media that trivialised it. They are no longer to be trusted ever. They are filtering the information to keep you asleep, especially in a time when you should have been awake a lot more. It is not the one thing, there is no one thing, it is the combination of a whole range of issues and it is not the private jet setting, that is utter bullshit. What they are all happy to ‘ignore’ or forget is what I mentioned in ‘A COP26 truth’ a setting we see (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2021/11/13/a-cop26-truth/) two elements stand out. “over the last 15 years 15,000,000 additional flights were added. That amounts to 41,000 flights a day, every single day. So how much CO2 do these flights create?” The Guardian was all about private jets and made no mention of this element. Do you really think that these flights were essential? Then there was “We are that close to suffocating. On the other side, we have seen clear reports that 50% of the damage comes from 147 plants, the media ignored it, I wrote about it and placed the documents of UNEP and the EEA for you to read, they had graphics too.” How interesting was it that the Guardian and its environmental pages did not mention that report. Two elements and you were kept in the dark and now these elements start to form a biased opinion (from me) but feel free to come up with better settings and this has been going on since 2021. So with all the space they had they ignored the European Environmental Agency? 

It is my personal speculated believe that these elements are part of a greater impact and the Canadian fires with the deforestation elements are adding up to a new picture. I might be so brazen to suggest that the 8 billion people this year onwards (for some time) will be using more oxygen than the planet can renew, this has a larger impact now, the winters and summers will both be harsh, more harsh then anyone can remember. I would leave it to the media, but I don’t thin they can be trusted any longer. In fact there are trust issues on all sides and so there should be, but those who give us the news aren’t (it is now filtered information). Am I right? Am I wrong?

I honestly do not know, but this is my speculated opinion. I might be going from numbers, but it remains speculation. 

So breath and get through the day, the weekend is behind you the next one might be coming in 5 days. Enjoy.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

August 19, 2023 · 00:41

Our house is burning down. Down!

By now we have all heard of the fires in Canada. There is nothing that I can say, invent or imagine that makes this setting easier. These fires are making the fires of Rome (64AD) and burning of London (1666AD) look like a simple BBQ (or clambake if you are from the US). At this time the fires are well over 13,500,000 Hectare, and it has displaced around 200,000 people. Which is almost 1% of the population. The largest fire in recorded history. I have never ever heard of a fire this big and I have been around for well over half a century. I wonder what the eco-deniers make of this setting, who will they blame? The fact that from all over the world firefighters are coming to Canada to fight a fire too big to comprehend is only one setting. The stage that planes are so loaded that they need to turn away those fleeing the disaster they face. 

People wear protective masks as the Roosevelt Island Tram crosses the East River while haze and smoke from the Canadian wildfires shroud the Manhattan skyline in the Queens Borough New York City, June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

And that is before you realise that NYC is orange, orange from smoke by Canadian fires. An event that has never happened before. So yes, I looked at plenty of issues before I looked at this. I am on the other side of the planet, but I took notice, I took notice several times and now I decided to write about it. 

The setting hasn’t changed, I did. I am starting to realise that that much forest gone will impact our oxygen supply and it will take lose to a decade for a decent amount to be rebuild. We can argue on the timeline. But the forests in the Amazon are depleted, the ones in Indonesia have seen depletion as well Indonesia lost 29.4 Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 18% decrease in tree cover since 2000. Did you think that was nothing? Now the forests of Siberia are almost all that remain and I reckon that this is not a path we want to walk on. This fire might not be what we wanted, but there is a negative part in me that states that this is the fire we the people (not just Canadians) have been entitled to. A small reminder that exploitation of our world will hurt us all and people more intelligent than me would have been aware of this for several years and the Canadian fires are merely bringing it to the foreground. Some articles are drawing in the people by looking at how it started, some are set on the blame factor, but if you need someone to blame you only need to look into a mirror. Politicians are not held to account, all whilst driving the gravy train. We are being told that places like the UK that woodland creation has increased by 40 percent since last year to 3,128 hectares. It isn’t much, but it is a start, all being it being half a decade late. People like Mark Rober (formerly with NASA) have aided organisations like Team Trees, an organisation that as of 29 June 2023, the project has raised $24,438,806, exceeding the fundraiser’s goal to plant 20 million trees. As anticipated, more than 20 million trees have been planted. So one ex-NASA with an organisation achieved more in 2 years that the UK achieved in a decade and it is people like this that Canada will need, their solutions will be required when the fires are stopped. When? Your guess is as good as mine and it will rely on guessing as we have never faced a fire like this ever before, not in well over 2000 years as far as I can tell. 

So what is the option? I am not sure we have one, our house is burning down and whilst most houses have a garden to evacuate to, the planet has nothing surrounding itself but empty space and that is a place where we cannot survive. I wonder how long it will take some to blame the rich, tax everyone and whatever other solution people give, but the simple equation is that until we change our lives from a consumer based life towards an essential goods stage this will keep on going on. And with a little over 8,000,000,000 consumers in this house, we are destined for a larger failing than we care to admit to. You see it is not merely the fires, it is the simple equation where 34 million acres are not there to give us the oxygen we need to breath. So how short will our oxygen supply be in 2024? You can ignore it all you want but that will be the largest topic we ever faced and it is coming. None of it is the fault of Canada or Canadians. We all did our best to ignore Brazil and Indonesia. The media skated around the issue and now the blame game starts. Well as soon as the fires have been digitally exploited to the maximum. That is how I see it. Do you think I am wrong?

Enjoy the weekend and consider the numbers, the numbers tend to be correct.

Leave a comment

Filed under Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,

July 13, 2023 · 00:40

Enemy of the stated

That is sometimes the case and I got that alert yesterday. It took me a while to get on board with some of the items, yet on the other side there is more and there is something else at that. So lets start with that part as it matters. Last year, almost 1 year ago I wrote an article (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/07/18/for-those-not-seeing-the-oil-field/) with the title ‘For those not seeing the oil field’. In that Article I wrote “China could sell the Chengdu J-20 at a nice price to Saudi Arabia (I admit I was trying to get my foot in the door and make a play for a simple 3.75% commission), and when you consider that this bill might go up to 15 billion, my 3.75% makes for a nice half a billion (we all have overly big dreams), and merely to play the courier? You have got to be kidding, I am so ready for that part!” And that stage as already underway at that time (alas, not for me). In an age where in Australia we see nearly the entire nation ripe with age discrimination, I was aiming for a nice job getting 3.75% (an internal joke from 1996) of whatever comes up and recently I learned that this might be as high as $23.8 billion over 2 years. This would have gotten me a $892,500,000 pay-check (over 2 years). Would I accept that? Hell yes! For being a simple courier for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? I would have been so there. Australia has no enemy relationships with either country. Is it my best case scenario? Not exactly, I am a commonwealthian after all, as such I preferred to be courier to documents for the British Typhoon. Yet British Parliament gave it up for British tea grannies and their CAAT. The Americans made a mess of everything pushing their own solutions away from a decent revenue taxable future. So I was looking out for me and I would have taken that job, no hesitation about it. 

So now you have the background, lets dig into the article that sets this off. It was the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66160979) who gives us ‘US think tank founder charged with acting as Chinese agent’. In that article we are given a few parts. First there is “Gal Luft “agreed to covertly recruit and pay” an unnamed ex-US official to publicly support certain Chinese policies, federal prosecutors say. The 57-year-old allegedly attempted to broker arms sales involving customers in China, Libya, the UAE and Kenya.” Here we have two issues. Was he a broker? Did he connect to people, who via him conducted business? Broker is a bit of a lose term. And we aren’t talking two parties, we are looking at at least 3 channels, optionally more, but what is relevant and what matters? For Americans it is a setting for courts and good luck with that evidence. The second allegation is “In 2016, officials say he failed to register as a foreign agent while acting to advance Chinese interests in the US. He is alleged to have lobbied an ex-US official who was an adviser to then President-elect Donald Trump to convince him to “publicly support certain policies with respect to China”.” Here, in the first, was he a foreign agent, or was he a (technical) consultant? They are very different and evidence is bringing that up (I never saw any for that matter). And as the ‘activity’ happened in 2016, why did it take 7 years for anyone to take actions? Which policies was he catering to? Is that not the job of any stake holder in the political field? Was the policy a legal one or a illegal one? Three questions that blow away the setting if the court doesn’t have a proper deck of Trump cards (pun intended). Then we get a very specific one “Prosecutors also accuse him of attempting to broker arms sales without a US permit. He allegedly worked to help Chinese companies sell anti-tank launchers, grenade launchers and mortar rounds to Libya.” The short and sweet is, can it be proven that he was a broker, or was he an un-sided courier? Person A and Person B do not know each other (good enough), but they both know Person C and that person couriers the papers between the two. Isn’t that what DHL does? Is DHL a courier of an arms broker? Then we get “Federal officials say he attempted to bypass US sanctions on Iranian oil by directing an associate to say that the oil was Brazilian. According to prosecutors, Mr Luft was arrested in Cyprus on US charges on 17 February this year and fled after being released on bail pending extradition.” This is a specific allegation and a big ‘no no’ Iran is on the naughty list of many nations and there they might have a case. I reckon it is stupid to do what he did as the sulphur content of Brazilian and Iran are very different, did he not think this through? Well that is a case that might stick on him and the fact that he allegedly fled to Cyprus does not help him much. So what is the difference between George Luft and me? I am not American and I will not do business with Iran. But as we are both optional couriers I am still in a much better place that he is (alas a very poor one for now). As such in the end we get “He is charged with eight counts, including failing to register as a foreign agent, evading oil sanctions, two counts of making false statements to investigators and three counts of illicit arms trafficking.” What is true? What is legal? What is unacceptable? That is for the courts to decide, but I reckon that George Luft as the head of a think tank was already making a fair amount of coins, so why endanger it all? I never get invited to US Energy Security Council conferences, so I am a little clueless at present. But it seems that America is seemingly still out to declaw whatever China does and at present I cannot say that they did anything do wrong, the courts will decide on George Luft. I look forward to seeing that evidence. In the meantime, my delusional side will dream of getting his 3.75%, as all delusional people do.

Enjoy the middle of the week. 

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Law, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

July 8, 2023 · 19:05

The pot saw the black kettle

Yup, we all see that at times. We see the good, the bad and the opposite. And as such the media is all about giving us a partial story. Still this is not always on them, I get that. So when I saw Reuters giving us ‘Yellen criticises China’s ‘punitive’ actions against US companies, urges market reforms’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-urges-china-adopt-market-reforms-insists-us-not-decoupling-2023-07-07/) my very first thought was “Is she for real?” 

Thi is a setting that started years ago with the US riling up support AGAINST Huawei. We saw the dozen countries all going against Huawei. The larger station is not that they went up against Huawei, the bigger part is that NONE OF THEM ever gave us ANY evidence that Huawei was a security risk. This is not me being pro Huawei or being pro China. This is me being pro evidence and we were never given any evidence. One case (that was settled) in 2010 is all we got and all the stories were laced with ‘could/‘ and ‘might be’. Cisco was the same danger but no one spoke out, not even when Cisco had its set of security issues. These things happen. Yet the US is still operating its set of systems. There is GARLICK, LADYLOVE, MOONPENNY, JACKKNIFE, TIMBERLINE, STELLAR, IRONSAND and that list goes on for a while. Yet China is the big evil and no evidence is clearly presented. 

So now we get “U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on Friday for market reforms in China and criticised its recent tough actions against U.S. companies and mineral export controls, while China’s premier called on her to “meet China halfway” and put bilateral relations back on track.” I t3end to say, either stop the anti-Huawei stages or present actual and FACTUAL evidence that Huawei is a national security issue. There is close to nothing else. And as for the ‘mineral export controls’, well there might be a reason China needs them, there is also the case that stopping Huawei without evidence comes at a price and it seems that the mineral export is part of that price. So whilst the world is seeking for gallium and germanium (the second one is not found in Germany) the US needs to realise that their stance as a bully comes at a price and now that these prices are set in the open, the US doesn’t get to say “meet China halfway”. It intentionally destroyed the Huawei 5G wave because Americans were too stupid to take the lead in 5G technology and counter what was out there. Even I have 5G IP that the US (and others) do not have. All because the fat cats were lazy in an age when China became a true innovator. As such, as we are told “a technology war with the United States and potentially causing more disruption to global supply chains” the setting is not incorrect but not complete. You see these two substances are decently rare and China has the largest load. The US cannot claim the amounts from Japan or the UK (Or France, or the EU) as such they are in a bind and this is what comes with the bully tactic we have seen these last 5 years. Gallum is a different story. I have no precise numbers, but China is not the largest exporter, it apparently is Brazil with the US in second place. But I reckon that the two together will set a larger station and yes it comes from China. So as we consider “Yellen met with Premier Li Qiang on Friday during a visit to Beijing aimed at repairing fractious U.S.-Chinese economic relations, but made clear in her public remarks that Washington and its Western allies will continue to hit back at what she called China’s “unfair economic practices.”” As unfair economic practices go, 11 years ago we were given “A 2012 White House-ordered security review found no evidence that Huawei spied for China and said instead that security vulnerabilities on its products posed a greater threat to its users. The details of the leaked review came a week after a US House Intelligence Committee report which warned against letting Huawei supply critical telecommunications infrastructure in the United States.” I reckon that with leaked their own stables are in order? In addition to that, the stage is escalating and now we see that as shortages of Gallum and Germanium imply that there is a danger to US National security, with their stockpiles having no reserves left. As such I have a two set mind. Janet Yellen as the champion for bullies should not talk about “market reforms”. On the other hand, I am not claiming that China is innocent. I want to see evidence that they are not and so far going back at least 5 years, the US and the EU NEVER presented this. This is the station we face and as I personally see it Janet Yellen is the new US version of Don Quichotte and China is the next windmill. And as I see it, the stage that STC and Saudi Arabia is embarking on, the shortage that the US faces in Germanium and Gallum implies that the lag that the US faces will close to exponentially increase during late 2024. This is a setting that was to some unexpected, but the Reuters article gives us a list of people and they are all monitoring the supply. This implies to me that the setting is not as good as some make it out to be and it sets a different stage for the UK and France. As the US shortages increase it will stage a takeover of these suppliers by the US a lot stronger and faster than anyone had foreseen. This is (as I personally reckon)  a station of close to exponential danger to these nations. It might be the reason why Janet Yellen was send and not some one form the US State department. Did no one consider that question? Why was Janet Yellen send? It is pure speculation on my side, but I reckon that Premier Li Qiang is having a great time. It might be the first time he is talking from a position of great strength, but I could be wrong here.

What a weird weekend this is, enjoy yours.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Military, Politics, Science

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

June 3, 2023 · 00:58

It’s a BRICS house

That was the setting and it is not a new setting. The BBC gives us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65784030) ‘Brics ministers call for rebalancing of global order away from West’. This is not new to me. I made mentions even before I wrote ‘Brain drain, by design’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/11/17/brain-drain-by-design/) which was November 2022. So this is not new. I am not happy that Russia is in the mix and I did not consider Brazil in that mix. But India and China were. And even more, which we also see here with “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “more than a dozen” countries including Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in joining the group”, which I saw coming a mile away. And I reckon that Saudi Arabia and China will then offer an inclusion to the UAE. It is now becoming a simple play that puts the US and the EU out of business. The UK still has its ties to India, as such it needs to play a very careful game to not be set aside, and it is possible that the UK will have some form of shelter, but the US is pretty much done for. It’s news cycle is all about avoiding defaulting from one point to another, and when that goes wrong it goes really wrong with the US and the EU, both Canada and the UK will feel that sting massively. Then as Japan goes Australia will be in similar dire conditions. A stage that was never speculative, anyone with a decent grasp of the abacus could work that out and the  biggest trap they went for was to shut Saudi Arabia out, to let (according to their ego’s) it become a pariah. All for a journalist no one gave a fig about. More importantly there was never any evidence, that much was clear in that United Nations essay and they tried it again with that cyber report that involved Jeff Bezos. Now that new house, that domicile made from BRICS and its members will become the new world powers. As I said, the fact that it includes Russia is not my choice and I am not happy about it. And now that we see more and more business outsourcing to India, that stage will change even more. Those in doubt better get a clue, because if I see my tactics correctly, the BRICS union will set stations so that there is no more debt raising for the US. I am not sure how they will pull it off, but if any of the BRICS members now or new will sell their US bonds it will all stop right quick. We were that close to the edge and now that edge is crumbling. I might not be in time to sell my IP, but I do have an alternative and that setting is close. I will not get much, if anything, but I will get out with my skin decently intact, which is likely more than most others can say at that point. 

So when we consider the BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) a new setting comes and with that the largest ass kissing contest in the EU will start with vonder Leyen on her knees. After that whatever allies the US had will be running for the hills, any hill for that matter. The rich people will already have plans in place, they will have locations ready and they will watch from a massive distance with family and friends how the US implodes upon itself. I reckon that 2024 will be the least comfortable place on the planet to be at that point. Yes, people will call me crazy, people will say that I am causing a panic. Yet these facts were out there for anyone to see, you merely thought that the western media would give you the goods, something they haven’t done in close to a decade. I gave several clues out on several matters on how the media was giving you the runaround going all the way back to September 2012. But you all thought I was crazy. Well, when this situation becomes a reality, you get to see how crazy I was. Did you actually think that someone can have a $32,000,000,000,000 debt and no one comes to collect? I have seen people hide under beds because someone was ringing the doorbell for an outstanding $750. And the final parts was seen a few months ago when Saudi Arabia closed the door on ‘saving’ with a simple “The head of Credit Suisse Group’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank (SNB), said on Wednesday it would not buy more shares in the Swiss bank on regulatory grounds” Did you think it was going to be that simple? They lost lost more than $26,000,000,000 in market value. That was the setting I did not initially see, but when we see the larger stage we see that it was more then a loss. I reckon that whatever BRICS has in place, or is about to have in place. The US is now in deep water, they are up to their neck and someone is adding water to the equation. For China it will work out rather well. You see after the US falls, Japan is pretty much next in line with a debt of $9,300,000,000,000, or 1,343.4 % of their GDP. A debt that is 13 times their GDP, without the US that will pretty much strangle them over night and whomever had those bonds can end that economy right there, right quick.

Did you think they were all too big too fail? 

A writer named Jenny Holzer wrote Truisms (1978-1983) gave us “Change is valuable because it lets the oppressed be tyrants.” I think we are about to see the impact of just how nasty that could end up being. 

Could I be wrong?
Of course I can be wrong, yet consider what is shown, and what was implicitly not shown. When you put those two together you get an image. Yes we can speculate that some are presenting a wannabe scenario. Yet two of these players (China and India) have the drive, the people and the will to push forward. Now add the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the mix and you get a massive unsettling concoction that no one in the west wants to try and that is what we see now. The next debt ceiling is January 2025, which might sound nice, but if some of these bonds are set to market in 2024 the US will be in much deeper waters and this is not a secret either. I wrote about this (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/03/12/i-honestly-dont-get-it/) on March 12th with ‘I honestly don’t get it’ and even before that. Who will push? I have no idea, because I do not know where all the US bonds are and the media wasn’t too sharing, were they? 

So you can look int this or consider moving to anywhere where this cesspool does not hit, which is another reason why I was eager to sell my IP to Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom Holding Co. I reckoned that a (starting) 5 billion annual revenue stream would appeal to them, apparently I was wrong there too. Will I be wrong again? Perhaps, but I have been correct a lot more times than I was wrong. As such I have a decent confidence in me being right.

Enjoy the weekend (or at least try to).

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,