Tag Archives: Finance

December 18, 2025 · 23:58

The wrong focus

Two messages passed me by today. The first one was given to us by CNBC (at https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/12/17/oracle-stock-blue-owl-michigan-data-center.html) with the headline ‘Oracle stock dips 5% as Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ and I wonder why the headline wasn’t ‘Blue Owl Capital pulls out of funding $10 billion data center’ with the optional added “the project remains “on schedule” but that Blue Owl was out of funding talks.” And as we see “Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for OpenAI in Saline Township, Michigan, according to the Financial Times.” And when we see “the plans fell through due to concerns about Oracle’s rising debt levels and extensive artificial intelligence spending, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter. This comes as some investors raise red flags about the funding behind the rush to build ever more data centers. The concern is that some hyperscalers are turning to private equity markets rather than funding the buildings themselves, and entering into lease agreements that could prove risky.” I am wondering why the focus is Oracle and not Blue Owl Capital. Even as others give us ‘Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Is Down 7.1% After Liquidity And BDC-Merger Lawsuits Surface – What’s Changed’ (at https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/diversified-financials/nyse-owl/blue-owl-capital/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-is-down-71-after-liquidity-and-bdc-merg/amp) with “Blue Owl Capital has faced multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging that it misled investors about liquidity pressures tied to redemptions and the planned merger of its business development companies, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results and contentious merger terms for OBDC II shareholders.” As well as “Beyond the legal claims, the controversy has highlighted how liquidity constraints, redemption limits, and potential valuation “haircuts” inside key private credit vehicles can affect confidence in Blue Owl’s broader fee-based asset management model.” So the setting could be “Oracle dips because Capital Asset Management cannot get their settings right” it is a speculative statement, but it does hold water in light of what we are shown, so why CNBC focusses on Oracle and not on Blue Owl Capital is beyond me. Is it because kicking a true innovator is more sexy than a Capital Asset Management player? I feel slightly protective of real innovators and as far as I can tell Oracle has been a power for innovation for over 45 years (yes I am that old).

So when we see “Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.” And there is the real culprit, players like Blue Owl need to make money and the entire setting for what they call ‘AI’ will not show revenue for over 2 years and that is what is hampering these players (as I personally see it).

So when we see “The person added that Blue Owl was also concerned that local politics in Michigan would cause construction delays. Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks.” I reckon that Blue Owl will move out of at least one other project, as such some players need to step up and it goes without saying that these ‘money makers’ will see stretch marks in their projected revenue womb and it will be a nasty setting for those that are relying on profit per quarter and that was the setting I foresaw almost a year ago and a setting that will bare scrutiny because there are trillions invested and some makers of money will start to realise that as they aren’t making enough money for their shareholders, they will become nervous and as I see it, Google has the inside track now and those relying on OpenAI and Sam Altman will start to see their revenue falter, it is no longer a one player game and that is before we consider where Huawei is going in all this. 

The second article ‘Amazon Set to Waste $10 Billion on OpenAI’ (at https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2025/12/17/amazon-set-to-waste-10-billion-on-openai/) the question becomes. Is it really wasted? We see the first setting “OpenAI, which until recently has been the leading artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world, has raised money from a long list of investors. Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns. However, another list consists of money or strategic deals with Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, Nvidia, and, soon, Disney.” This part raises a question “Some are venture capitalists who are simply writing checks to get returns” the question is part of a timeline. When they get the money is another part of this equation and time is  the factor that holds these money loving parties in check, or not as the timeline shifts towards 2028/2029. So as we consider “Bloomberg reports, “OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.” Amazon is a tiny player in the AI chip business. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates, with a market cap of $4.33 trillion, which makes it the most valuable company in the world. Put plainly, the Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry. One company invests in another. The company that gets the investment uses the money to buy products or services from the investor.” I see something else. Whilst we get that $4.33 trillion is an important part, the larger setting is becoming “Amazon deal is part of the dangerous “round tripping” that goes on in the industry” this implies that “a company selling “an unused asset to another company, while at the same time agreeing to buy back the same or similar assets at about the same price.”” I see it as double dipping, so we have now (apparently ) arrived to the point where the double dipping is greedily seen on 10 billion, whist the invested setting is over 900 times larger. I personally see that as a new venue towards the bottom of the creamy barrel that everyone wants to dip their wallet in, the setting is spend and the money is gone (or at least locked into a set stage of non-revenue) and that is the second setting I see breaking the economic settings apart in 2026, because this will erupt into something a lot less nice long before we reach 2027 and that is close to 2 years ahead of incoming revenue. Do you still think I am boasting? This is not a boast. It is disappointment, because that setting was clear to me almost a year ago when I wrote ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) So I saw this coming a mile away and the others were in the dark? I am not that intelligent, I am pretty clever sop these high paid economists should have see this long before me, or were they hoping that THIS time they could outsmart others? Greed is a vicious circle and will only propagate further greed a game without winners and all who play it lose, or they sell others down the river to get their goods. So how did that end in 2008? The movie Inside Job has a few markers, but who ended the game with a full purse tended to be awfully little and they wasted trillions on that idea and now we get a setting more intense and with more money at play all whilst the previous setting is still hurting a lot of people. Now, the impact will be a lot more dangerous with too many people relying on the setting others give whilst not giving them the full story. How does that usually go over?

A stage that could sink America as I see it, but perhaps I am just a radical depressed individual. Have a great day you all. My Friday begins in less than 5 minutes.

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November 27, 2025 · 04:39

The sound of war hammers

It is a specific sound, nothing compares to that and it isn’t entirely fictional. Some might remember the Walter Hill movie Streets of Fire (1984) where two men slug it out with hammers, but that is not it. When a Warhammer slams into metal armor, the armor becomes a drum and that sound is heard all over the battlefield (the wearer of that armour hears a lot more than that sound) but is distinct and I reckon that some of those hammer wielders would have created some kind of crescendo on these knights. So that was ‘ringing’ in my ears when NPR gave us ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ a few days ago (at https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5615410/ai-bubble-nvidia-openai-revenue-bust-data-centers) and what will you know. They made the same mistake, but we’ll get to that.

The article reads quite nicely and Bobby Allyn did a good job (beside the one miss) but lets get to the starting blocks. It starts with “A frothy time for Huang, to be sure, which makes it all the more understandable why his first statement to investors on a recent earnings call was an attempt to deflate bubble fears. “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” he told shareholders. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”” So then we get three different names all giving ‘their’ point of view with ““The idea that we’re going to have a demand problem five years from now, to me, seems quite absurd,” said prominent Silicon Valley investor Ben Horowitz, adding: “if you look at demand and supply and what’s going on and multiples against growth, it doesn’t look like a bubble at all to me.” Appearing on CNBC, JPMorgan Chase executive Mary Callahan Erdoes said calling the amount of money rushing into AI right now a bubble is “a crazy concept,” declaring that “we are on the precipice of a major, major revolution in a way that companies operate.” Yet a look under the hood of what’s really going on right now in the AI industry is enough to deliver serious doubt, said Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy.” All three names give a nice ‘presentation’ to appease the rumblings within an investor setting. Ben Horowitz, Mary Callahan Erdoes and Paul Kedrosky are seemingly mindset on raking in whatever they can and then the fourth shines a light on this (not in the way he intended) we see “Take OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker that set off the AI race in late 2022. Its CEO Sam Altman has said the company is making $20 billion in revenue a year, and it plans to spend $1.4 trillion on data centers over the next eight years. That growth, of course, would rely on ever-ballooning sales from more and more people and businesses purchasing its AI services.” Did you see the setting. He is making 20 billion and investing $1.4 trillion, now that represents a larger slice and the 20 billion is likely to make more (perhaps even 100 billion a year. And now the sides of hammers are slamming into armour. That still will take 14 years to break even and does anyone have any idea how long 14 years is and I reckon that $1.4 trillion represents (at 4.5%) implies that the interest is $63,000,000,000. That is almost the a year of revenue and that is the hopefully glare if he is making 100 billion a year. So what gives with this, because at some point investors make the setting that the formula is off. There is no tax deductibility. That is money that is due, the banks will get their dividend and whomever thinks that all this goes at zero percent is ludicrously asleep and that is before the missing element comes out. 

So then in comes Daron Acemoglu with “A growing body of research indicates most firms are not seeing chatbots affect their bottom lines, and just 3% of people pay for AI, according to one analysis. “These models are being hyped up, and we’re investing more than we should,” said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, who was awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.” He comes at this from another angle and gives us that we are investing more than we should. All these firms are seeing the pot at the end of the rainbow, but there is the hidden snag, we learned early in life that the rainbow is the result of sunlight on rainwater and it is always curves t be ‘just’ beyond the horizon and it never hits the ground and there will be no pot of gold at the end of it according to Lucky the Leprechaun (I have his fax number) but that was not the side I am aiming for, but it gives the idiocy we see at present. They are all investing too much into something that does not yet exist, but that is beside the point. There are massive options for DML and LLM solutions, but do you think that this is worth trillions? It follows when we get to “Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.

Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. “That’s not going to happen,” Kedrosky said.” This comes from Paul Kedrosky, a venture capitalist who is now a research fellow at MIT’s Institute for the Digital Economy, and he is right. But that too is not the angle I am going for. But there are two voices, both in their field of vision, something they know and they are seeing the edges of what cannot be contained, one even got a Nobel Memorial Prize for his efforts (past accomplishment) And I reckon all these howling bitches want their government to ‘safe’ them when the bough breaks on these waves. So Andy Jassy, Sundar Pichai, Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella (Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft) will expect the tax system to bail them out and there is no real danger to them, they might get fired but they’ll survive this. Andy Jassy is as far as I know the poorest of the lot and he has 500 million, so he will survive in whatever place he has. But that is the danger. The investors and the taxpayers (you and me) get to suffer from this greed filled frenzy. 

But then we get “Analyst Gil Luria of the D.A. Davidson investment firm, who has been tracking Big Tech’s data center boom, said some of the financial maneuvers Silicon Valley is making are structured to keep the appearance of debt off of balance sheets, using what’s known as “special purpose vehicles.””, as well as “The tech firm makes an investment in the data center, outside investors put up most of the cash, then the special purpose vehicle borrows money to buy the chips that are inside the data centers. The tech company gets the benefit of the increased computing capacity but it doesn’t weigh down the company’s balance sheet with debt.” And here we get another failure. It is the failure of the current administration that does not adapt the tax laws to shore up whatever they have for whatever no one has and that is the larger stakeholder in this. We get this in an example in the article stating “Blue Owl Capital and Meta for a data center in Louisiana”, this is only part of the equation. You see, they are ’spreading the love’ around because that is the ‘safe’ setting and they know what comes next. You see the Verge gave us ‘Nvidia says some AI GPUs are ‘sold out,’ grows data center business by $10B in just three months’ (at https://www.theverge.com/tech/824111/nvidia-q3-2026-earnings-data-center-revenue) and that is the first part of the equation. What do you think will power all this? That is the angle I am holding onto. All these data centers will need energy and they will take it away from the people like you and me. And only 4 hours ago we see ‘Nvidia plays down Google chip threat concerns’ and it is all about the AI race, which is as I said non-existent, but the energy required to field these hundreds of thousands of GPU’s is and no one is making a table of what is required to fuel these data centers because it is not on ‘their plate’ but the need for energy becomes real and really soon too. We do not have the surplus to take care of this and when places like Texas give us “Electricity demand is also going up, with much of it concentrated in Texas due to “data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities,”” with the added “Driving the rise in wholesale prices next year is primarily a projected 45% increase at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas-North pricing hub. “Natural gas prices tend to be the biggest determinant of power prices,” the EIA said. “But in 2026, the increase in power prices in ERCOT tends to reflect large hourly spikes in the summer months due to high demand combined with relatively low supply in this region.”” Now this is not true for the whole world, but we see here a “projected 45% increase” and that is for 2026. So where are these data centers, what are their energy surpluses and what is to come? No one is looking at that, but when any data centre is hit with a brownout, or a partial and temporary drop in voltage in an electrical power supply. When that happens any data centre shuts down, energy is adamant for all its GPU’s and their better not we any issue with energy and I saw this a year ago, so why isn’t the media looking into this? I saw one article that that question was not answered and the media just shoved it aside, but as I see it, it should be on the forefront of any media setting. It will happen and the people will suffer, but as I see it (and mentioned) is that the media is whoring for digital dollars and they need their advertisement money from these 4 places and a few more, all ready for advertisement attention and the media plays ball because they want their digital dollars (as I personally see it).

So whilst the NPR article is quite nice, the one element missing is what makes this bubble rear its ugly head, because too many want their coins for their effort and it is what is required. But what does the audience require? And the audience is you an me dear reader. I have set a lot of my requirements to energy falling short, but there is only so much I can do and it is going to be 32 degrees (celsius) today, so what happens when the energy slows down for 5.56 million people in Sydney? Because the Data centers will make a first demand from their energy providers or they will slap a lawsuit worth billions on that energy provider. And we the people (wherever we are) are facing what comes next. Keeping data centers cool and powered whilst we the people boil in our own homes. As such that is the future I am predicting and people think I am wrong, but did they make the calculation of what these data centers require? Are they seeing the energy shortfalls that are impeding these data centers? And the energy providers will take the money and the contracts because it won’t coexist to this, but that is exactly what we are facing in the short run and the investors? Well, I don’t really care about them, they invested and if you aren’t willing to lose it all with a mere card to help you through (card below), you aren’t a real investor, you are merely playing it safe and in that world there are no bubbles.

Remind me, how did that end in 2008? The speculated cost were set to $16 trillion in U.S. household wealth, and this bubble is significantly larger than the 2008 one and this time they are going all in on money, most of them do not have. So that is what is coming and my fears do not matter, but the setting that NPR gives us all with ‘Here’s why concerns about an AI bubble are bigger than ever’ matters and that is what I see coming.

So have a great day and never trust one source, always verify what you read through other sources. That part was shown to be when we all see (from various sources) that “The United States is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending this year” whilst my calculations made it between 80 and 130 billion and some laughed at my predictions a few months earlier and I get that. I would laugh too when those ‘economics’ state one amount and I come with a number over 700% larger. I get that, but now (apparently) there is an Oxford economics report that gives us “Damning report says U.S. tourism faces $64 billion blow as Trump administration’s trade wars drive away foreign visitors and cut spending”, so I have that to chase down now, but it shows that my numbers were mostly spot on, at least a lot better than whatever those economics are giving you. So never trust merely one source even if they believe to be on the right track. But that is enough about that and consider why some bubble settings are underexposed and when you see that the NPR gave you three additional angles and missed mine (likely not intentional) consider what those investment firms are overseeing (likely intentional) because the setting that they are willing to lose 100% is ludicrous, they have settings for that and as the government bailed them out the last time, they think it will save them this time too.

Have a great day today, I need an ice cream at 4:30 in the morning. I still have some, so yay me.

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November 21, 2025 · 21:23

Amalgamation anyone?

Several settings came across my eyes. First there is the big hit that Prime Minister Carney made in the UAE, some say it comes down to a $3 trillion dollar investment, which is great for Canada. I reckon the northern pipeline that makes America obsolete in this instance has something to do with it. Then there was the rating of 2.3 (out of 5) that Epic Universe scored and I thought that was weird, but the personal ratings with over 250 giving it a 1 rating does not lie, but there was a person who looked into this and made a solid case. The person Andrew Platt gave a good rundown, which made me wonder how Epic Universe was designed. Who was the so called ‘manager of bad times’ The rundown (at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4wgErXyV14) should be watched by anyone who want to go there. And he looked at stuff I never would have, because (until President Trump took over) I was on that bulk of people wanting to see that place. So at this time, it will be another persons problem and there will be lots of finger pointing into this mess, considering that when the weather is bad, 60% is unavailable is a rather large setting. As such Abu Dhabi and their Warner Brothers theme park upcoming will have a great time adjusting for the thousands of Europeans, Canadians and even Americans. It is the consequence of bad management and a few other matters. But these issues keep on coming. Ill be honest, I never considered these factors, but Universal management should have seen the coming before they poured in 7 billion dollars. The idea of a few hundred million to put it under a roof doesn’t seem to ridiculous now, does it? News dot com dot au gave us in April ‘$13 billion Universal Epic Universe theme park is the biggest, most expensive theme park ever’, as such I never considered what Andrew Platt reported on. So check out his video before you book an expensive hotel in Orlando. 

Then ABC News gave us a mere 5 hours ago ‘‘Buying the dip has become a dangerous sport’ as nervous global share markets dive’ (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-21/tech-bubble-asx-nasdaq-dow-jones-sell-off-japanese-bonds/106036078) this gives us “Markets are nervous because more than $US2 trillion ($3.1 trillion) was wiped off Wall Street last night in a matter of hours. Where did the money go? Some went to Japan. Indeed, enough money took flight for some to ask whether the multi-trillion-dollar US tech bubble has now popped.” In addition we see “Bitcoin moved further into bear market territory overnight, plunging a further 5 per cent to under $US88,000 ($136,000) — down roughly 28 per cent from its all-time high.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore recently questioned whether Bitcoin was the “canary in the coal mine” for overall sentiment in global financial markets.” I cannot argue the ‘canary in the coal mine’ because I am not that deep into anything economically related, but 18 hours ago, Marketwatch (at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-sugar-daddy-just-went-broke-and-youre-stuck-with-the-bill-a74b35c9) we see ‘America’s ‘sugar daddy’ just went broke — and you’re stuck with the bill’ it, reflects my story Yesterday ‘Big in Japan’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/11/21/big-in-japan/) but with a few more angles. With “Because Japan owns $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt — more than your weird uncle owns in grievances — and when your biggest lender suddenly discovers it can make money at home, it tends to stop financing your lifestyle. It’s like your friend finally realizing he’s been picking up every bar bill since 1985.” That setting and the others are showing the cracks in the ‘fabulous armour’ called America. Dip after dip after disaster is hitting those shores at present. And Marketwatch gives us ‘Wall Street finally catches on’ with “For months, the market was too busy pricing AI stocks and parsing Elon Musk’s latest proclamation to notice Japan’s bond yields climbing.” And as I see it, they should have been on top of all of it. They wanted their golden throne, but that implies you better keep everything under sight and that is their responsibility. So when the markets panic in the next 96 hours, it will also be on them. All by themselves it all seems manageable, but as a collected setting of bad news for America, there is a larger concern, the seams are breaking and as such the money-tub called America is fumbling in the hands of those who were managing the outcome of that revenue. 

When you come to think of it, I made a presumptuous statement that Americans would ‘invade’ Canada just to get away from America and that setting is a lot more real at this time, because when we see the Financial Review giving us ‘Major super funds count exposure to billion-dollar US solar collapse’ where we see “AustralianSuper, HESTA and the Queensland government’s investment arm, QIC, have an indirect exposure to the prominent bankruptcy case due to substantial interests in one of its biggest backers – Generate Capital. One of Generate’s directors is QIC’s head of global infrastructure, Ross Israel” a mere 4 days ago. In addition we are seeing “Pine Gate has raised more than $US7 billion ($10.7 billion) since it was founded in 2016 and owes creditors including Brookfield and Carlyle around $US6 billion. The company blamed growing uncertainty for overseas investment in the United States and hostility toward green energy since the return of Donald Trump to the White House as reasons for its collapse, along with the revocation of tax credits for solar projects.”And this is only one of many and that is before we consider the AI Bubble (which is denied to exist by Forbes) but the impact on retirement funds will be massive, in nearly any place that has put their money in this. So when the retirement funds collapse, where do you think these people will go? Where do the people go when there is no future in where they are? They go the places that has a future and at present that is Canada (Mexico too). Is this the future? 

You see Amalgamation comes with a danger. You cannot add a bucket of oranges to a bucket of apples and set the stage that you now have 2 buckets of fruit, because the analyses of fruit has different properties, but it can be done to get a little better view in the overall stage, as long as you consider that it is a flawed view and I get that. The Epic Universe stage showed me that I knew too little about that side of the flaw on the matter and me trying to explain it one way is no resolution on any other way. 

I knew that Abu Dhabi was a great vacation destination because I had done my homework on a number of things as such I knew that the UAE was a great place to see (or move to) but the larger impacts are not given, the impact can only be seen where we have all the data and some of the data is kept from us, other data cannot be verified, as such it is a terrible mess. And in this Amalgamation is not really the solution either, but it is all I have to show the dangers of some places. 

In this I bid you a great day and try to enjoy the upcoming weekend, so let’s make it a great weekend.

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November 21, 2025 · 01:16

Big in Japan

It is not a song by Alphaville, they did that in 1983 I believe. But a few months ago (May 4th, at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/05/04/the-nature-of-things/) I raised a setting that gave us “Japanese finance minister says selling U.S. bonds a “card on the table”’ with the yowza response “Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country’s $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a “card on the table” in trade talks, The Associated Press reported.” Talking about the tiger that feeds himself with your hand, and the added text becomes “Japan is one of the five largest U.S. trading partners, as well as a rock-solid ally in the region, so there was some surprise when the U.S. hit the country with a 24% reciprocal tariff in early April.”” I had Axios and a few other sources. And that was all there was to it, the news simmered down and the news was forgotten, except that is why I have my blog. I don’t tend to forget things. So when I got the news a few days ago I saw a YouTube video that Japan was dumps its US bonds. A fear that many have. And I started to seek that news from more reputable sources. Most had nothing, but (at https://medium.com/@nationalgoldgroup/japan-is-dumping-us-debt-and-americans-will-feel-it-31ec6a1f3870) But Medium gave us ‘Japan Is Dumping US Debt — And Americans Will Feel It’ but that is all there is. Now, I would be hesitant to give this out, especially as the Financial Times and the WSJ have nothing on this, even the Japanese Times (an English version) has nothing. So what gives? Are these doom speakers? Because that news would be grim for America. They give us “That’s basically what Japan has been doing with US Treasuries since the 1990s. They’d print Yen at 0% interest rates (basically free money), convert it to dollars, and buy up American debt in the form of US Treasuries. Then they’d sit back and collect the interest payments. This strategy pumped trillions of dollars into global markets over the years.

And more importantly, this arrangement made everything in America artificially cheap.” But as we see the next bit “suddenly, the cheat code stopped working. The math that made the carry trade profitable for 30 years just flipped upside down. Japanese pension funds looked at their spreadsheets and realized they were losing money on US Treasuries. So they started selling. Billions of dollars worth. Every single day. Imagine you’ve been lending money to a friend for years, making a nice return. Then one day, you realize you could make better returns just keeping the money in your own savings account. What would you do? You’d ask for your money back.” So, is this true? America could ask Mark Carney as he is an excellent economist, but there is a chance he is not taking their calls. What surprises me is that all the media is silent on it. But 2 days after my article, on May 6th we got “If Japan sold massive amounts of US debt, it would very likely spark a massive Treasury selloff. Treasury rates would in turn sharply increase, making it more expensive for Washington to borrow and freaking out investors along the way” (source: CNN) but at present, these YouTube and their allotment of ‘financial show’ jokers are seemingly doom speaking, because as I see it, this is all it is. The problem is that doom speakers tend to make others jittery and China has over $700 billon of those puppies. The Medium ‘knowledge’ comes from the National Gold Group and I am not setting any value on that, but the fact that the ‘set’ financial newspapers (Guardian, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times) have nothing on this, they do not even debunk that news. So I am looking at the playing field with a dim look (as I have an absent economic degree). And I am not joining any doomsayer on their doom binge. But YouTube has a few more sources and they are all dancing around the setting, like they ant to refer to news they had given, but they are not giving it. As I see it, if it isn’t in the newspaper (online or not) it doesn’t exist, but the news is a little unsettling, because if Japan goes, so does China soon thereafter and America has 2 trillion in US treasury bonds that no one wants. So, what do you think that does to the American economy? I reckon that China likes the idea, but it doesn’t want to start it and that is where Japan comes in. Is it real? I honestly do not know, but I do know that after the shenanigans America did to others, there is a hidden glimmer of fun to several people should this happen. So I have concerns on this, but I am adamant in saying that there is no verifiable setting that this is actually happening at present. And I feel strongly about giving this additional message.

I will report on happening, not create fictive settings that start something.

Have a great day, it’s fish day here now. I might go for some today. So, make sure you find a reputable source if you are going to be panic stricken because anything else might cost you a lot more than you think and in case of doubt, Ask the former Marky Mark of the British Bank (at +1-613-957-5555) he knows a lot more about this than I do.

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October 22, 2025 · 04:30

The bubble to end all bubbles

That is what I saw mere minutes ago. It was yesterday’s piece at the Financial Review. An opinion piece by Gita Gopinath. Now normally I tend to ignore opinion pieces, but due to the fact that over time Financial Review has shown a good back on several matters and I picked up on the title ‘The crash that could torch $US35trn of wealth’ (at https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/the-crash-that-could-torch-us35trn-of-wealth-20251016-p5n31w) gives pause for alarm. As America has its tourism issues, its economy issue and its technology issues a $35,000 billion write-off would be nothing less than a disaster in the making. I wrote about this a few times, but even I shudder to think of how large this bubble has become. The 2008 crash was half of that and the documentary Inside Job does a great way to explain this. Take this movie together with the movie Margin Call and you get a picture of what was done to the people of the world.

This is more than 100% worse and it started with the delusional setting of salespeople taking the easy road and giving the rest of the world how amazing AI was going to be. The quote “I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $US20 trillion ($30 trillion) in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a 2-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment” should stop you in your tracks. With the additional “Foreign investors could face wealth losses exceeding $US15 trillion, or about 20 per cent of the rest of the world’s GDP. For comparison, the dotcom crash resulted in foreign losses of around $US2 trillion, roughly $US4 trillion in today’s money and less than 10 per cent of rest-of-world GDP at the time. This stark increase in spillovers underscores how vulnerable global demand is to shocks originating in America” was not unknown to me, but I did not figure on the damage exceeding 10 trillion, here I see I was off by 50% (which comes due to a lack of an economic degree on my side), but data I know, in and out. I saw some of this and I tried to warn people and especially the Emirati people (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/20/the-start-of-something-bad/) in ‘The start of something bad’ only two days ago. And the reason why it would be worse is seen in the next setting of the Financial Review. We are given “Historically, the rest of the world has found some cushion in the dollar’s tendency to rise during crises. This “flight to safety” has helped mitigate the impact of lost dollar-denominated wealth on foreign consumption. The greenback’s strength has long provided global insurance, often appreciating even when the crisis originates in America, as investors seek refuge in dollar assets. There are, though, reasons to believe that this dynamic may not hold in the next crisis. Despite well-founded expectations that American tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy would bolster the dollar, it has instead fallen against most major currencies.” I kinda saw that two days ago, but not to this degree (the Financial Review writes it better) When that bubble burst it will not allow for shelter and the people involved will be hit massively. As I see it Nvidia will survive by will see its value decreased by 90%. Oracle will get hit less but it will still take a beating. Microsoft will be up for sale in the bargain basement and after builder.ai, the bubble will stick to them like gum in hair and they will not be able to shake the event. Others (Google, IBM, Amazon) will be hit, but they will get through this. As I see it, the only high standard that is maintained will be Adobe. Their “AI” options are soundly set in Deeper Machine Learning. As I see it, they will tend to be the shelter of choice if at all possible. 

The only part I disagree with is “Although this does not mark the end of the dollar’s dominance, it does reflect growing unease among foreign investors about the currency’s trajectory. Increasingly, they are hedging against dollar risk – a sign of waning confidence.” As I see it, the dollar comes to an end with this bubble. I do not know what people will rush to, but the dollar is no longer the place to be. As I see it there will be a flock going towards the Yuan, the Dirham and the Bitcoin, but personally I have no idea if the Bitcoin survives. You see, a $35,000 write-off will come from some currency and those hiding in Bitcoin will lose a lot, no telling how much, but it will be close to astronomical. The Financial Review gives us “Perceptions of the strength and independence of American institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve, play a crucial role in maintaining investor confidence.” That independence is close to obsolete. This administration took care of that with all the tariffs, all the tourist settings and the economy is also shaky. It might not be but someone took the trouble of not reporting the ‘goodness’ of their setting. The labour statistics are nowhere to be found and that is shaking investor confidence. All that whilst Paramount is shaking thousands of people of their employment tree, this year alone Microsoft shed 15,000 jobs, IBM is said to have fired 21,000 jobs, making Google’s 100 job losses trivial in comparison. In this setting and with the missing labor statistics the investor confidence would be in the basement and even if the Federal reserve doused that paper in the scent of Luis Vuitton it would not matter much. At present Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the best places for these investors and America knows this. They have oil to fall back on and as I see it, no matter how the AI bubble bursts, they can retrench this into service roles and data acquisition roles. That is what Europe fears, American held data used to safely drip the economy to health using IP values from everywhere. And this is not the first time I wrote about this in ‘That one flaky promise’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2022/01/29/that-one-flaky-promise/) where I saw the dangers of America ‘annexing’ whatever it had and that was BEFORE AI and the bubble it created. I swear that danger almost 4 years ago. That setting will implode the rest of what America thought they would have. As I see it, a strong setting of IP and storage of it could help both Saudi Arabia and the UAE (a likely preferred choice) to evade to (those who can afford it) because when this bubble goes it will wipe out whatever most of us hold for dear and those who had their patents in the US. This is mere (intense) speculation, but do you think that this American administration will not do this? It had no trouble with tariffs and the setting of THEIR ‘big beautiful America’ at the expense of everything. They even tried to make Canada and Greenland part of America. I don’t think so and as I see it, when that bubble goes America is pretty much done for. All because Americans believe that Cash is King. So their salespeople live by the dollar and will waste it at a moments notice for their personal needs. Should you doubt that please watch Inside Job and see what they did there. I reckon that Iceland is now getting back on its feet al will enjoy the view on the impact crater that Wall Street leaves behind. 

I need to end this with a word of caution. This was base on an opinion piece, so as that is wrong, so is my view. But I based it on the data I had available and the prediction that I saw in 2022, so there was no AI bubble at that time. So is my view more accurate now? That cannot be said and it is based on what desperate people do and as I see it America is about to become really desperate. So enjoy your coffee today, which I will do also and I will assist a young woman named Aloy help her defeat some machines. They were not Microsoft products, so they should work. Now lets make them a lot less functional and that Deathbringer looks like a right monster.

Have a great day and try not to get too depressed by the not so good news I am partially bringing.

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October 13, 2025 · 07:06

Just like Soap

Perhaps you remember the 80’s series soap. Someone made a sitcom of the most hilarious settings and took it up a notch, the series was called soap and people loved it, it did nearly everything right, but over time this bubble went, just like all the other soap bubbles tend to go and that is OK, the made their mark and we felt fine. There is another bubble. It is not as good. There is the mortgage bubble, the housing bubble (they were not the same), the economy bubble and all these bubbles come with an aftermath. Now we see the AI bubble and I predicted this as early as January 29th of this year in ‘And the bubble said ‘Bang’’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/01/29/and-the-bubble-said-bang/) and my setting is that AI does not yet exist, as I saw it, for the most, it is the construct of lazy salespeople who couldn’t be bothered to do their work and created the AI ‘Fab’ and hauled it over to fit their needs. Let’s be clear. There is no AI and when I use it I know that ‘the best’ I am doing is avoid a long discussion about how great DML and LLM are, because they are and it is amazing. And as these settings are correctly used, it will create millions if not billions in revenue. I got the idea to overhaul the Amazon system and let them optionally create online panels that could bank them billions, which I did in ‘Under Conceptual Construction’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/10/under-conceptual-construction/) and ‘Prolonging the idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/10/12/prolonging-the-idea/) which I wrote yesterday (almost 16 hours ago). I also gave light to an amazing lost and found idea which would cater to the needs of Airports and bus terminals. I saw that presentation and it was an amazing setting in what I still call NIP (Near Intelligent Parsing) in ‘That one idea’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2025/09/26/that-one-idea/) these are mere settings and they could be market changes. This is the proper use of IT to the next setting of automation. But the underlying bubble still exists, I merely don’t feed that beast, so when the BBC last night gave us all ‘‘It’s going to be really bad’: Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley’ almost 2 days ago (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz69qy760weo) I saw the sparkly setting of soap bubbles erupt and I thought ‘That did not take long’. My setting was that AI (the real AI as Alan Turing saw it) was not ready yet. The small setting that at least three parts in IT did not yet exist. There is the true power of Quantum computing and as I see it quantum computers are real, but they are in the early stages of development and are not yet as powerful as future versions should be and for that, so as IBM rolls out their second system on the IBM Heron platform, we are getting there. It is called the IBM’s 156-qubit IBM Quantum Heron, just don’t get your hopes up, not too many can afford that platform. IBM keels it modes and gives us that “The computer, called Starling, is set to launch by 2029. The quantum computer will reside in IBM’s new quantum data center in upstate New York and is expected to perform 20,000 more operations than today’s quantum computers” I am not holding me credit card to account to that beauty. If at all possible, the only two people on the planet that can afford that setting are Elon Musk and Larry Ellison and Larry might buy it to see Oracle power at actual quantum speed and he will do it, to see quantum speed came to him in his lifetime. The man is 81 after all (so, he is no longer a teenager), If I had that kind of money (250,000 million) I would do it to, just so to see what this world has achieved. But the article (the BBC one) gives us ““I know it’s tempting to write the bubble story,” Mr Altman told me as he sat flanked by his top lieutenants. “In fact, there are many parts of AI that I think are kind of bubbly right now.”

In Silicon Valley, the debate over whether AI companies are overvalued has taken on a new urgency. Skeptics are privately – and some now publicly – asking whether the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be, at least in part, the result of what they call “financial engineering”.” And the BBC is not wrong, we had a write-off in January of a trillion dollars and a few days ago another one of 1.5 trillion dollars. I would be willing to call that ‘Financial Engineering’ and that rapid rise? Call it the greedy need of salespeople getting their audience in a frenzy 

I merely gave a few examples of what DML and LLM could achieve and getting a lost and found department set from weeks into minutes is quite the achievement and I reckon that places like JFK, Heathrow and Dubai Airport would jump at the chance to arrange a better lost and found department and they are not alone but one has to wonder how the market can write off trillions in merely two events. So when we get to

“In recent days, warnings of an AI bubble have come from the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, as well as JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon who told the BBC “the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds”. And here, in what is often considered the tech capital of the world, concerns are growing. At a panel discussion at Silicon Valley’s Computer History Museum this week, early AI entrepreneur Jerry Kaplan told a packed audience he has lived through four bubbles. He’s especially concerned now given the magnitude of money on the table as compared to the dot-com boom. There’s so much more to lose. “When [the bubble] breaks, it’s going to be really bad, and not just for people in AI,” he said.”

He is not wrong. Consider the next one amounting to a speculated two trillion (or $2,000,000,000,000) when it hits, it could wipe out retirement savings of nearly everyone for years. So how do you feel about your retirement being written off for decades? When you are 80+ and you have millions upon millions you are just fine and that is merely 2-5 people, the other 8,200,000,000 people? The young will be fine, and over 4 billion will be too young to care about their retirement, but the rest? Good luck I say.

So what will happen to Stargate ($500B) when that bubble goes? I already see it as a failure as the required power settings will not be able to fuel this, apart from the need of hundreds of validators and their systems require power too, then we see Microsoft thinking (and telling us) it is the next big thing, all whilst basic settings aren’t out yet. Did anyone see the need for Shallow Circuits? Or the applied versions of Leon Lederman? No one realizes that he held the foundational setting of AI in Quantum computing. You see (as I personally see it) AI cannot really work in Binary technology, it requires a trinary setting, a simple stage of True, False and Both. It would allow for trinary settings, because it isn’t always True or False, we learn that the hard way, but in IT we accept it. That setting will come to blow when we get to the real AI part of it and that is why I (in part) the AI coffee being served in all places. And I like my sarcasm really hot (with two raw sugar and full cream milk)

That is the setting we face and whilst some will call the BBC article ‘doom speak’ I see it for what it is, a reminder that the AI frenzy is sales driven and whilst people are eager to forget the simplest setting, the real deal of Microsoft and Builder.AI is simply the setting that at present we are confronted with IT engineers making the decisions for us and the amount of class actions coming to the world in 2027 and 2028 (optionally as early as 2026) and as some cases are drawn out even yesterday (see https://authorsguild.org/news/ai-class-action-lawsuits/ for details) you need to realise that this bubble was orchestrated and as such I like the term ‘Financial Engineering’ so be good and use the NIP setting properly and feel free to be creative, I was and gave Amazon an idea that could bank it billions. But not all ideas are golden and I am willing to see that I am not the carrier of golden ideas, the fact that someone saw the Lost and Found setting is proof of that.

Have a great day, I am 30 minutes from breakfast now, so off I go to brekkyville.

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September 23, 2025 · 11:30

The time has come

I have been sitting on a story for about three days. I have been hesitant as it is a field I am thoroughly unaware off, but it could hit me in the future and as we are given (at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-19/first-guardian-shield-collapse-asic-and-superannuation-flaws/105783328) the setting of ‘First Guardian, Shield superannuation disasters expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system’ we see that ABC is giving us not only cause for pause, but also cause for alarm we are set in a stage of almost desperate inability to protect our retirements. And lets be clear if Australia is set to a $4.3 trillion danger, what is the dangers towards America, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany? 

I tried to illustrate dangers like this in ‘Wages of fear’ which I wrote in May 2023, two years ago (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/05/02/wages-of-fear/) and there I wrote “Lets be clear, this was NOT his fault, but the point where we cannot avoid what comes next was achieved. If only people had woken up a lot sooner. But there we got past a point where the problems would accelerate and now we are almost at that point. And the banks will be no help. I tried to warn you a few times over. Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” Now the fair question is, is this the same? I don’t think it is, but there is a larger failing into the retirement systems as it is not a hands on pathway. ABC in another story hands us “Ms Wohlers is one of about 12,000 Australians haunted by the loss of more than $1 billion of retirement savings after the collapses of First Guardian and Shield.” As well as “ASIC deputy chair Sarah Court, who has commonly described the First Guardian and Shield cases as “industrial-scale misconduct”, says the regulator acted as soon as it could. “We don’t think we missed red flags,” she told ABC News ahead of ASIC’s appearance at a parliamentary hearing on Thursday, when she was grilled by politicians about whether it was a tough cop on the beat properly identifying financial misconduct.” And it relates to the story we are given with ‘140 targeted by ASIC on Shield, First Guardian’ as I see it, a mess of a disastrous kind. Where the latter gives us “So, for example, the financial advisers are saying to us ‘you can’t hold us accountable for this because the ratings house had rated the Shield Master Fund as of investment grade’, while superannuation fund trustees are telling us the same – ‘well, we relied on the ratings houses’, or ‘we relied on the fact that these members had financial advice’,” (Source: Financial Newswire) I see it as a setting where there is a ring setting with no beginning and no end. I am in a setting where Microsoft could steal my IP and my only defense would be to convict 280,000 Microsoft employees to death and kill them myself. I get that this is utter madness, but that would be the result of one party just playing a game with other whilst that party knows that they cannot be held to account. I remember the rating houses in 2008 and they got away whilst millions lost it all. I see the simpler setting “You take from me, I take from you” and the setting that Microsoft losing over 45% of its staff (I am utterly destined to fail) making it implode on itself. Now take that to the setting of rating houses and the the truth comes out (if it ever does) the people need to react and react harshly. It is not ‘business as usual’ it will become business at the cost of souls and that is a harsh reality to face.

So whilst some will lawyer up and that is their right, they should not be allowed to walk away with even a dime. I reckon that they will sue the rating houses and those rating houses will need to get sanitized (to some extent) because losing billions is a larger setting and when Australia with their billions in losses (up to 4,300 billion) the setting for America and Canada is a lot more severe. And America up to ten times as much as Canada faces. And about a month ago we were given ‘ASIC takes further action against Ferras Merhi over First Guardian and Shield superannuation advice’ where we are given “ASIC has sought leave from the Federal Court to expand its existing proceeding against former financial adviser Ferras Merhi to allege he engaged in unconscionable conduct, failed to act in the best interests of clients, gave conflicted advice, and provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars.” Yet my question becomes did Ferras Merhi do anything illegal? You see, in my setting I would be, but did he do anything illegal? The setting revolves around “provided defective statements of advice whilst receiving millions of dollars”, so what makes a statement ‘defective’? You see, I am not protecting Ferras Mehri. I am looking at the following:

s12CB of the ASIC Act – engaging in conduct in connection with the supply or possible supply of financial services, which was in all the circumstances unconscionable.

So, what makes the setting of “all the circumstances unconscionable” an economist looks at this in one way and I as a law graduate and IT technician in another way. 

Then we get:
s952E of the Corporations Act – providing defective disclosure documents. As such, what makes the documents “defective disclosure documents”, I do not know and I look at them separately as that is what the law does and when merely one law falters, it all collapses (it matters later on).

Then we get:
s961B of the Corporations Act – failure to act in their client’s best interests, and what is that at the start? Most clients are ‘greed’ driven, they want the highest return and that is ‘their’ best interest. It is a hard lesson to learn that looking back the client gave the wrong advice to the advisor. I myself only work a balanced portfolio, I will never make large leaps but then again I am unlikely to lose a lot either. 

So in that setting we see:
the Court made interim freezing orders over Mr Merhi’s property. These orders remain in place until 12 December 2025 (25-024MR).
ASIC cancelled the AFSL of FSGA, effective 7 June 2025 and permanently banned its responsible manager (25-102MR).
In July 2025, the Court made travel restraint orders against Mr Merhi. Those orders prevent him from leaving or attempting to leave Australia until 12 December 2025, or until further order of the Court (25-024MR).

That is fair enough I reckon. But now we get to the settings that ABC at the top gave. We see there “In all of these cases, no criminal charges have been laid, but ASIC is heading to court to make allegations against the people at the centre of the Shield and First Guardian funds — those involved in managing and promoting the schemes.” The no criminal charges gives pause to consider that no criminal acts have transpired and when we look at some of the allegations the two that take the cake (a Tiramisu cake) is that the settings of “defective disclosure documents” must be proven and the lawyers will fight that. Then we get “all the circumstances unconscionable” and that is the ballgame, ‘unconscionable’ is not per se illegal and it is about the legality of the matter in court and that is the setting we see. So when I made a statement two years ago saying “Some of their risk and liquidity is in US bonds and when the US forfeits payment your 401K and many other things will become worth close to nothing” we see what bonds were worth 5 years ago. There we see “For the year, long-term U.S. Treasuries were by far the best-performing fixed-income investments, with a nearly 17% gain,” (source: Reuters) at present they are “the 10-year yield settled around 4.36%” that represents a loss of 13%, so who pays for that bond? This was a danger I saw 5 years ago (as uneconomical as I am) and 10 years ago I heard people to buy bonds as the interest is like free money and I stopped. There is no free ride and this is almost pushed into the AI field all whilst there is no verification in place. All settings that are interconnected and we now see the ABC giving us “expose deep flaws in Australia’s $4.3 trillion retirement system” so, what do you think you will end up with because as I see it, there is the chance that these people can do what they like all whilst there is no criminal accountability. Yes, he is stopped for now, but Ferras Merhi is about to walk away with more than $19 million in payments. As such he is willing to sweat it out for a few months. It is a lot more (like 79.2581 times more) than I ever made in my lifetime. 

So I see this case that ABC alerted me to with some suspicion. These people live by the setting of walking the edge of legality, there is no risk at that edge and I expect that Ferras Merhi is doing just that not doing anything illegal. As such 12,000 Australians are about to learn that they could lose it all without any illegal actions transpiring and I fault it to two settings (mentioned above) and we all considering setting the clocks to Islam where we see “Islamic banking prohibits the use of interest, speculation, and excessive risk. It emphasizes profit and loss sharing, fairness, honesty, and transparency in financial dealings.” By the way this setting was in place for hundreds of years. 

Have a great day and see that Statista gives us “Robusta, named because it can grow at a wider range of altitudes and temperatures, sold for 1.87 U.S. dollars in 2018, projected to sell at 5 U.S. dollars per kilogram in 2026” did you predict in 2018 that you would be setting your retirement to pay 267% for your coffee?

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September 5, 2025 · 06:14

The alternative way

I was contemplating the issues of Data privacy and particular the issues around US customs and their intrusion on your data issues. I had a few issues with that and as America is now the least reliable side of the matter I decided on a few techniques that might allow evasion of this. This morning I decided to look a few things up and I paused at Wired (at https://www.wired.com/2017/02/guide-getting-past-customs-digital-privacy-intact/) and I got to ‘How to Enter the US With Your Digital Privacy Intact’ where my suspicions were greeted with the ideas that had not been thought of. You see I am a great fan of ‘non-repudiation’ and that gave me the idea. What if you had the greatest of data insights? What if part of this locking and unlocking the data is for example your library card? This gave me two settings. The first is the magnetic strip, you see, you never think of this and it is what YOU make of it. The first setting is that a bank card has three tracks on a magnetic strip and they are for the most employed by banks when they need it (like ATM), but that setting could be altered for YOUR needs. The second part is what the card looks like. We can use these two elements to take a new page out of a book. 

So this leaves us the corporate way and the personal way. 

As a first, we get to copy the details you need (like a contact list, app list and personal lists). The second part becomes copying hat you need to a corporate server, encrypted data that is merely there, like a backup. So how is that dat secure? Well we get to the next stage, we take one or two cards you have on you. One with a magnetic strip, one as a card (could be business card, could be staff access card, or even your library card). You will keep it on you at all time. And third a personal access number (up to 12 digits) This gives you the setting of non-repudiation.

Now we travel to a ‘no one cares where’ place in America and you pass through customs, without phones or laptops. Just a regular joey. And in the American office you go to the security office and download the essentials. Now this merely makes sense for the people who needs this. So it is not for everyone in the first stage.

You pass the credits to a scanner and there is your data, your essential data that is. Kept safe from peeking eyes, and there is a growing concern that this is becoming more and more essential. We seemingly are ‘held’ to the dangers of YOUR data, but I reckon that America is now gaining an essential need of Digital IP that they can ‘embrace’ for their broke settings soon enough. Only for you to lose the fact that your IP was hijacked and no one knows who or where. But that is the setting that I am seeing now. They need IP to survive the next year and why should they be allowed your data? At present we see nearly everyone giving us “Chinese theft of American IP currently costs between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.” But I am not so sure. We get the ‘victims’ that Nokia and other brands, all whilst Huawei is far beyond what players like Nokia and others can produce. Is there IP theft? Yes, I know there is but from fashion brands like Gucci (it might be IP brands) but the markets are making a killing on $15000 Gucci bags, now for sale in the markets at $179 dollars. As I see it, the new settings allows for America to steal what they need to avoid having to not pay their interest bills. Now this is allegedly, I have no evidence. But the setting as I see it is quite real, as such I devised a way to avoid becoming a victim. The best option is to avoid America all together. Possible for me, but not for everyone and should I get that decently paying technical support job, then I will end up working for a US firm (hopefully avoiding the US altogether) but I am not holding my breath on that. 

As such I came up with this, a first in this task. There are two settings. The first is the data and the second is the hardware. The data I describes and I am a firm believer in non-repudiation. The hardware is different. You se, the movies have this nice clean crisp solution, but we are barely there. There was Ultraviolet (2006) where we see a foam phone printed and folded. We are already at that stage where we can do that. The printed foam cover is possible, there is still the setting of the battery, but that could be overcome. We merely set the LCD print board to include the display, you won’t have a camera setting, but that wouldn’t be needed. We get the setting that the devices go back to their original platform. So you have (if needed) a camera, a battery, and whatever more you need. The printed phone will interact with it all if needed. And wouldn’t it be nice if Huawei gives you all that? American stupidity forces China to give us the next need to innovate. That is irony the size of the Titanic (in action). 

You get one republican idiot forcing the world to turn to its life long enemy (President Nixon doesn’t agree with this statement), but that is for tomorrow. There is of course the real setting. Do we still need America? They are so in denial about what is real that the current tourism news is given to you by YouTube (optionally TikTok too). 

As such my mind went wandering into the data safety setting and as the article is giving you, others have preceded me. But for now, corporations will need to adapt that same policy before they lose the data they have and personal data is currency, one that America shouldn’t possess. As such I wonder at what point these firms will avoid America altogether, setting offices up in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. And now that it seems that India is turning to Russia and China for their oil, they are likely the first to change venue towards their BRICS partners. The EU and the Commonwealth are next. As such Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom will result into making these jumps, to what extent is impossible to predict. I reckon that it depends on how they are depending of America as such. It will be a fluctuating field. But what is true is that more and more people are seeing the hardships that American corporations faces. GM has shed nearly 20,000 staff from 2018 onwards. ‘Tesla to cut 14,000 jobs as Elon Musk aims to make carmaker ‘lean and hungry’’ and that is merely in the last year. In the last 2 months we were told that Microsoft is shedding 9000 jobs. That’s over 40,000 people in merely three corporations and when we seek harder answers. Only Yesterday did Fortune give us ‘Ray Dalio says ‘most people are silent’ because they’re afraid to talk about what’s really happening with the U.S. economy’, I saw this setting months ago and the media is avoiding the issues as they are allegedly being held hostage by advertisement revenues. We aren’t given the real deals and I am not sure where the real deal stands. According to the media the setting is ‘US economy has likely stalled, with 50% risk of recession in 2 years, says Barclays’ in the meantime we are also given ‘US Economy: Jobless Claims Rise, Trade Gap Widens’ and ‘Stagflation & Recession Risks Loom Large Over US Economy’ with sources like UBS (allegedly relying on hard data), UBS gives us a 93% recession risk. If this is true, how does the Barclay setting make sense? I get it, talking about issues in two years time doesn’t mean that the risk is low in the next few months (it could be 100% by November). UBS gave three red flags, so there are all indicators. And the setting of Stagflation becomes the ‘norm’ Which gives us that growth is slowing, but the prices are rising. I am merely voicing what others are saying as I am not an economist. I reckon this is the second bullet that Canada is seemingly dodging as they elected Mark Carney (formerly Marky Mark of the British Bank). I’ll take his word over President Trump’s claims any day of the week. Moody’s speaker Mark Zandi gives us “we aren’t in a recession, but on the precipice of this recession”, OK, I am willing to go along with that, but merely as it seems sincere and I have no economic degree (Mark Zandi apparently has a stack of them). The problem is that these two sources highlight a rather large issue and the media is skating around them, they are avoiding the issue to get their alleged hands on advertisement revenue. It becomes an issue to see the real data and that is where you want to pass your IP through the borders? Not in my lifetime. I am likely to get a nice bonus if I just hand my IP to China, which sounds a lot more promising than trusting that America will do right by me. According to Zandi a third of America is already in recession or close to it and when we add the Tourism numbers I am seeing a grim picture, one that makes me plan my next vacation (whenever I can afford that one) on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE and not in America (ever). The Bank of America is blaming this on Tariffs (what a surprise). As such you might wander what one thing has to do with the other. The principle we are currently seeing at the America borders is the identification of HVT’s (High Value Targets), the second setting is IP. America needs trillions and one way to get these is by hijacking IP (making America the sole distributor of YOUR IP) Is that rally the way to go? Why don’t we ask the EU, Commonwealth and China on that issue? I think this is the one case where these three sides will speak (agree) in unison and I saw the setting coming over a decade ago and it is all over my blog. So why wasn’t the media this informative? I will let you decide.

But believe me that your IP and your personal DATA require protection and in a non-repudiating way. As such my mind went tinkering to what is possible and securing and keeping your data online was a first stop. I call it alternative way and that has a way of becoming the only or main way soon enough. 

Have a great day, I’m now a mere 90 minutes from breakfast.

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August 26, 2025 · 16:59

When the masses start slipping

That is at times the boulder we are waiting to see and today Reuters is giving us just that (at https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumers-with-prime-credit-are-starting-slip-payments-2025-08-25/) with ‘US consumers with prime credit are starting to slip on payments’ was given to us a mere 10 hours ago. And for the non-alert this implies “Borrowers with prime credit scores tend to pose relatively little risk to lenders and creditors. With a prime credit score, you may qualify for more favorable loan or credit card terms, interest rates and reward programs” and when this group starts slipping, the financial world will be a matter of upheaval and that will drown the people of mortgages and other settings. This was a mere matter of time. I saw this danger about a year ago and when tourism fell down I alerted you all that the bed and breakfast people will be up soon. Now consider that California and Florida have at least 200,000 of such arrangements and 10% is now slipping. This implies that over the next year we can see this group grow to about 20%-40%, it all depends on who faithfully set the charters to repay as much as possible. Those who set a second setting towards more beds or a larger stage are truly screwed. Now consider that 20,000 up to 70,000 of these mortgages are now in disarray and likely collapsing on itself. The story gives me the benefit of the doubt. With “Late repayments over 90 days were up 109% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment, while the prime segment posted a 47% increase year-over-year.” Sets the larger stage, where places are dwindling down on tourism, we see the setting change speculatively towards “Late repayments over 90 days were up 183% year-over-year in the VantageScore superprime segment” that point is what I see the point of no return. At that point bank and financial institutions are getting hammered as is the American economy. I reckon that this point will be reached by spring 2026. And with the quote “Even though in absolute terms the increase is modest, it shows that even consumers considered the most credit-healthy are also beginning to see some stress with regard to repayments.” The issue here is that these settings are on a 90% filled charter, as these regions are facing a lapse of over 10%, their food bills are up in the air. As I see it, you cannot gain momentum on an engine running on 100% all the time. This who had their repayments as high as possible and considered the chance of ‘bad weather’ are most likely to sit it out and that is the group that is way to small at present.

As such the expectations I had for America is starting to add up in the real world. As I see it Florida and California are up first, Las Vegas has had a tendency to make due with what they have, but the cracks are showing there too. California was until now one of the most economic viable situations in America, that is now ending and I reckon that after the fires and other altercations Los Angeles will not be a great place to live, crime will overtake the police there in mere months. But that last part is a speculation on my side.

Have a great day, Vancouver is just now coming into Tuesday (as is Los Angeles).

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June 12, 2025 · 03:24

Just grabbing two ideas

Yup, I’m gonna go there. Two ideas, one I already discussed and as I couldn’t find it I might want to re-discuss and the second one I came up with seeing something last night. That second one is the first one I discuss. It will give developers for Android, iOS and HarmonyNext the option to spread their wings and make a few millions. You see, I am not much of a programmer, I was on databases, but I left that game decades ago. So I can sit on the idea, or give you programmer lot a nice setting of millions and that is the stage where you merely charge one dollar for the app per sold installation. Wouldn’t it be nice to get a few million by being adhering to the need of others?

So as I was watching some walkthrough video of the Carrefour in Dubai, It hit me that the people at vacations and business travel have needs, they need stuff, but at times you need to keep your mind in the game and that is where you come in. Consider that you are shopping for razorblades, sparkling water, fruit juice and perhaps  piece of meat as you are in a place where there is a kitchen. So what to get? Well this is where your mobile comes in. As you place the camera on the item, it will scan the sticker on the camera, the text is seen (it is already possible to do this), but the setting that is not done is that the local price is set to your local currency so you will see what everything costs. As I see it, you will have your local currency, say Australian dollars and the price we see is 6.99 (which would be Dirham in Dubai), the app will tell you that this is A$ 2.92, so now you know. And as I see it, there is a setting page which can give you the two currencies and at that point the scanner will give you the transfer almost immediately, not head scratching on what it might be, you will see immediately. As far as I can tell Android doesn’t have it, so likely the other two don’t either. And you are merely catering to the millions of tourists the world have. The calculations of two currencies are out there already and you merely need to get the connection working and million of tourists will be grateful. All these people ready to hand over a dollar for your hard work and they will be there in the millions. You might want to make it $2, but I reckon not much higher. You see, when the price goes up too much people will hesitate. From the $1 idea of it being a great deal to the $3 when people start considering ‘do I really need this’ and that is the path you want to avoid. Also the coming in after you don’t get the vibe ‘I can do this cheaper’ and before you know it, you are in a digital armistice race and you don’t want that. 

A simple app that apparently no one sees and people need it. Consider any tourist that has been in a shop. They all thought “What does that cost in my currency?” I have had it and if you have been on vacation you did too. Even if it is as simple as the price of Beer/Wine.

See if you can make it work and have a nice day making the next app people need on their mobiles. 

In September 2024 I wrote ‘Your (starting) fame on timing’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/09/05/your-starting-fame-on-timing/) where I gave the readers a similar idea for time. You see, what people forget is that when they travel, or have international contacts they need to be in touch with people outside their time zone and there the issue is seen when you don’t have direct view of these timezones. A simple app (or faceplate) optionally using the widget on the phone to set those times to the watch. I reckon that those who need it might also pay a dollar for that idea, especially if it synchs mobile settings. The idea is in that story, so have fun with that. It is merely a giveaway as I don’t have the setting to do it myself. Oh, and feel free if you make over 10 million, to ‘donate’ up to 20%, a mere request not a demand. As I have no grounds of demanding anything. I put this on my blog, as such it becomes freeware. 

Two ideas, optionally making you an instant millionaire. Who doesn’t want that? You gotta start at some point and it might as well be here.

Have a great day all. 

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