Tag Archives: IMF

May 21, 2025 · 19:28

What’s in a brand?

That is at times the question. Most of the world was to sink their claws into Saudi Arabia and we see all kinds of settings, some speculative, some going for the worst. The truth is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the rise. Not merely because they are doing well (they really are), but the massive secondary reason is that they are a no-debt zone, just as the UAE is. So as we se that America is $46 trillion in debt, the EU has a debt of 14 trillion euro and Japan has a $9 trillion debt. Yet as the Telegraph a mere three hours ago gave us all ‘‘Worse than Greece’: The debt crisis threatening to blow up the global economy’ (at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/21/trump-sparked-debt-crisis-could-blow-up-global-economy/) the truth is (speculative) that I personal believe that America is in a worse state, even as the America administration is in denial and the media is massively avoiding reporting on it. I personally think that the network of Stake holders is con spiritually involved as well. As I see it (based on the work of Cathryn van Kessel) that ‘(Con)spirituality as a curriculum of immortality’ is set to “If we are listening to marketing hype, it seems that—with enough money—we can live longer, healthier lives. These products, however, are often no more than consumerist swindling steeped in pseudo-science and pseudo-spirituality. When viewed through the lens of terror management theory (TMT), mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy.” My personal view is set to the premise of “mitigating the harms of (con)spiritual grifts is more than a problem of a lack of scientific literacy, anti-consumer education, and media literacy, it is a (sort of) given setting that the stakeholders are dwindling the settings of parameters and changing the premise of given values, creating confusing hype settings” This is merely a personal view, but it seemingly fits the patterns we see, or tend to recognise.

So as such we see “Because the assets that the country holds are still far more valuable than the debts. All the land, mineral rights, water, etc.” and this shows the pressures to add Greenland and Canada to America, as such they wouldn’t be considered bankrupt. Another version is “Because debt payments are still manageable” but here time is running out, as such the Trump administration is playing the bully card on Canada and Greenland. But here the dance becomes a problem as Canada is not giving in as it is part of the Commonwealth. And that is why Keir Starmer as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is being catered to by the EU as the WU is in a similar predicament and the UK ‘re-joining’ the EU, the EU ends up with a credit card that gets renewed value. But the larger truth is that time for these three are running out and as such they are courtesan themselves to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And now we see the larger setting that the article ‘Saudi brands reach $116.8 billion in value fueled by energy, banking, and telecoms sectors’ (at https://brandfinance.com/press-releases/saudi-brands-reach-116-8-billion-in-value-fuelled-by-energy-banking-and-telecoms-sectors) gives us, and the values we see are “STC (brand value up 16% to USD16.1 billion)”, it is number two. Number one is Aramco (of course) and that is oil and I didn’t want to ‘taint’ the setting. After that we get “Almarai (brand value up 20% to USD4.7 billion)” but the third one is the kicker “Saudia (brand value up 34% to USD1.1 billion)” and here is the setting of three out of the ten that these are brands that have a 16%, 20% and 34% growth, totally unheard of in western settings and as such everyone wants in. Wall Street pretty much demand these new settings, but this is not on Wall Street, as such several brands (including me) are pretty desperate to get in. And I have made a few unsuccessful moves and I will totally try to do so again and again. I told a previous boss a few years ago that they had to get there now, now the going is good. But alas, it fell on deaf ears and now as brands in the EU, US and Japan are getting desperate we will see a total new stage of in-fighting and spading their opponents. But as they diminish one another, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will get the cream of the crop at a mere 65% of the total value, because the desperate will sucker themselves to get into the game as early as possible, hoping that the going is good early in the game. I get that, I would feel the same way (as a non-captain of industry that I merely my view) and now that China is entering these fields as well, the west is desperate to get in.

And at present we see little to no evidence how three players can have a cumulative debt of $70 trillion dollars. This is $70,000,000,000,000. Did you ever consider that the debt of these three is more than all the gold in the world? How is that possible? Is it because these three have the assets, because the debt is manageable? We think that we can all be a millionaire as long as we can couch up $55,000 in interest every year, but that is a debt without an end date, you pay as long as you live and that is not a realistic setting but these governments are telling you that story with the assistance of stakeholders (who get their own revenue out of that), yet at that point we ned to consider that you are a millionaire at $55,000 plus whatever the stakeholder charges and now it get to be a little iffy (aka yucky). It is a setting that is delusional, as such they all (desperately) need to be part of the Saudi branding, yet as I see it the Saudi’s have another view, you see STC gave us in 2024 “In 2023, we expanded our global footprint even further by acquiring a 9.9% interest in Telefonica and launching TAWAL operations in three European countries. Over the past year, STC Group has focused on diversifying our global offer to connect people across countries and continents.” They gave us that in March 2024, and the sphere of influence of Saudi Arabia is expanding. So whilst by an expected 2029 we might see brand X, but it is fueling STC for a larger and larger slice of the pie. As such it will all be co-owned by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and this is not white washing. It is merely business and these stakeholders will turn to the needs of their own paychecks more and more.

And this is not a dream story, it is not a nightmare story. It is about to become the reality of things and as such our paychecks go in part not to Telefonica, it will go to Tawal and through that to the STC. A simple business setting and for the most the media is will not inform you, it adheres to the needs of shareholders, stake holder and advertisers.

This is the power of branding and whilst we think that Nike, Lululemon and Jaguar are great brands, there is an underlying setting that the cool car is owned by Natarajan Chandrasekaran (chairman and Managing Director) and Saurabh Agrawal (CFO) (to some degree). And now we see the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expanding in all kinds of directions. In this I kinda set that stage in ‘An altering stage’ which I wrote on October 2nd 2023. I used the word ‘kinda’ as the focus was China and I wrote “It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion.” Which was a slightly different setting than the IMF reported on and I saw that two years ago. It is the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/10/02/an-altering-stage/) which gives the goods, so consider that I had this at that point, so why didn’t the media see this over the last 17 months? Consider that before you lash out and wonder who you should blame.

Too many of us are kept in the dark and you should wonder why. You see I am not an economist or some savant. Yet I know data and I have parsed data for decades, and I saw a long time ago that the numbers didn’t add up. So wonder how the media could have missed it all. You were merely given slithers of data and until you consider the larger picture (which the bulk of the media will not give you) wonder why and it is not that it was to complex. As I personally consider the setting is that stake holders are part of the deception. Their cheques are too fat, so they like this game how it is played and they have been playing it for years.

Have a great day and remember, don’t trust all you read, verify the data you are given, even my data. I am not telling you to trust my data. If anything I am a little like Fox Mulder (from the X-Files) and trust no one, not even me.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, movies, Politics

Tagged as Almarai, America, Aramco, brand finance, Canada, Cathryn van Kessel, China, Commonwealth, economics, economy, Eu, Fox Mulder, Greenland, IMF, Japan, Keir Starmer, Lululemon, Nike, politics, Saudi Arabia, Saudia, STC, TAWAL, Telefonica, UAE, USA, Wall Street, X-Files

October 2, 2023 · 04:43

An altering stage

This is a setting we all see, we all accept. We see any stage and we see it changes as conditions are dealt with. The Shutdown is as I expected averted in the last minute. I expected it would, but I also expect that this might go wrong in the future and the next shutdown is a mere 45 days away and US businesses are setting this new marker as the disaster moment. That is the new quarter setting, a setting that is a mere 45 days away now, but what happens when this becomes a monthly thing? And that is not nearly the end of it. You see CNN and others reported on how Rep. Jamaal Bowman pulled the fire alarm a mere minutes before that vote. Children will be children and what do you do with stupid children? Yes, you make them representatives of Congress, that is how it goes. He is seemingly hiding behind ‘it was an accident’ just like every other 12 year old who played ding dong ditch with a fire alarm. This is merely the stage, the larger stage is more serious.

The first one is the IMF (at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/09/28/cf-saudi-arabias-economy-grows-as-it-diversifies) who reports ‘Saudi Arabia’s Economy Grows as it Diversifies’. It is a summary and you should read it. It shows several elements that are taking the world by storm. It is not “As shown in the latest IMF annual review of the country’s economy, progress has been most notably reflected in non-oil growth, which has accelerated since 2021, averaging 4.8 percent in 2022. Despite lower overall growth reflecting additional oil production cuts, non-oil growth will remain close to 5 percent in 2023, spurred by strong domestic demand.” We get the goods here, but it is “The economy’s non-oil growth has been spurred by strong domestic demand, particularly private non-oil investment. Sustaining this performance requires pursuing sound macroeconomic policies and maintaining the reform momentum, irrespective of developments in oil markets.” Even if the stage is not revealed, when combined with other views we see that ‘strong domestic demand’ is merely one string from the harp of economy, the harp of Saudi economy. What matters is that larger streams involving defence, technology, construction, tourism and services are ALL moving towards Chinese shores. We see some of it now, but that list is rapidly expanding and the next US vote is 45 days away with them having to brood on a loss of billions and it will be a lot more than 1 billion.

The second article comes from Arab News (at https://www.arabnews.com/node/2382701). I am not seeing anything new, but the fact that we see the report on this implies that US and EU governing bodies are now seeing the losses that they are being confronted with. In the first Saudi Arabia has set the lofty goal of increasing the tourism target from 100 million to 150 million of tourists a year by 2030. I think they can get there, but as I wrote last week that implies that these 150 million will not be going to the US or EU. So did you do the math on that loss? Saudi Arabia was until recent not really a blip on anyones radar and now they are becoming a power player. And this is not just China, The EU has 44 million Muslims a fair size of this would be considering Saudi Arabia as a tourist destination soon enough and even as the US only has about 4 million Muslims, these two are now seriously looking at what kind of a vacation Saudi Arabia could offer. I think it could grow even further. As a growing global population wants to really learn about Islam, we see that the Churches are now going more and more deserted. You can fool all of the people som of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time and the western world is in stage three, all whilst stage two is waking up on the notion that the churches have been a scam (as some people see them) yet these people are now seeking faith. Faith they feel the churches can no longer deliver as these people feel conned. Now Saudi Arabia has a stage where they can openly and clearly introduce Islam to a people who feel empty because faith deserted them, it is now seen as a betrayal and the churches cannot address the betrayal that they instigated since November 18, 1095 (Council of Clermont, First Crusade). Over 900 years and that shindig is up. So Saudi Arabia stands to increase its Muslim population, they increase tourism and at the same time they decrease the revenue streams to the EU and US. Both China and Russia will see this as a win, as does the BRICS community. IS my view correct? Correct is not the issue, this is clearly happening, but to what degree is anyones guess. I felt betrayed by my Catholic Church going back since slightly before 2015 when the movie Spotlight showed the world that something was very very wrong. We have been conned by hypocrites and charlatans and many feel too betrayed to give the church even one option to redeem itself. This tom foolery had been going on for over 900 years.

And when you consider the Arab News giving you “By focusing on shared opportunities for growth and prosperity, the crown prince shuns hardened religious ideology that offers no prospects for the region or the international community at large. This leads him to navigate uncharted territory and negotiate closer ties with Iran and Israel alike. As he has pointed out, a Saudi normalisation agreement with Israel, if it came to pass, would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.”” It is seemingly correct (there are a few nicks to that setting), but the larger stage becomes more than ‘since the end of the cold war’. You see, the US was a power-player since the end of WW1 and that too is about to end. All the friends the USA used to have are now seeking new shores to feed their greed and they will bend over backwards to get their slice of cake and in the process will have to openly desert the US. Even Americans are now seeking ‘pro-Russian’ shores to ‘feel’ safe, but that is not the way it goes and those people will soon have no one to turn to. A similar setting is to be seen in the EU, although there are other issues in play too. Slovakia turning pro-Russian is merely one stage, one of many stages and that will erupt in many places. I expect that the Paris Olympics will show a few sides evolving there and as this evolves Saudi Arabia will be there to be the new power (together with China). You see, what some are missing is that places like Alipay+ is now partnered with the Saudi Tourism Authority. You think it is simple, but it is not. No matter how we see Alipay as part of the Alibaba group. It sets the stage where it is the partnered player with all the tourism in Saudi Arabia. It overtook PayPal in 2013, it now has over 55% as a pay provider for China and it is about to become a serious contender for all slices of the VISA and Mastercard processing pie. Within 10 years they got to there and the BRICS group will allow it to grow a lot further. And in all this we see another field that was until 5 years ago a field that belonged to the USA. Now we see more and more areas where the USA corporations are degrading to a mere third world nation and Saudi Arabia is in the centre of more and more of these stages. China is making a clean sweep of a lot of this and people still believe that I was kidding when I stated in 2019 that this pariah BS will have larger impacts. We are now seeing these plays in place and we see how the world stage is changing and for the USA and the EU not for the better. Oh and before you think this is temporary, consider the Brooklyn floods. It will take months for the humidity to settle down and the heating bills with decreased oil will take its toll there too. They say ‘It never rains when it pours’ and now we see the impact in several income streams whilst service streams are negatively impacted. All at the same time. But no matter the next shutdown is dues around 16 November 2023, a week before thanksgiving in the USA. So what will the Turkey’s do at that point to survive? Play ding dong ditch with a fire alarm?

Enjoy the upcoming week.

2 Comments

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Religion

Tagged as Alipay, Brooklyn, China, church, CNN, Council of Clermont, IMF, Islam, Jamaal Bowman, Mastercard, Olympics, Paris, PayPal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tourism, US Congress, VISA

February 12, 2023 · 09:40

Introducing: The nightmare

Yes, that is where we are at. It is not the beginning of some horror, although that is not out of the question, the larger stage is who the horror will hit. The setting of this stage begins with ‘Biden prepares largest Pentagon budget in history as spending cuts loom’ (at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/10/biden-pentagon-budget-debt-ceiling-00082302). This could be any day just like any other day, but it is not, it really isn’t. You see, the debt ceiling is about to get hit (yet again) but there is no raising it this time, with the debt surpassing $30,000,000,000,000 this debt is also surpassing the national GDP. It is even more dangerous. Last year the interest on this debt surpassed 25% of the national budget. It has become that bad. And I tried to warn people that the media and the puffy politicians were playing a game with you, but most never listened and that is not on them. There is no reason to listen to me. It is much better that you find out for yourself. So here we are, all whilst something serious should have been done from the age of former President Barack Obama. Let’s be clear, I am not blaming him, the fault is on BOTH sides of the isle. Tax laws and a tax system that was never overhauled, budgets that were not kept in control and things went from bad to worse. So now we get the pentagon budget. I am not saying what should be done, the issues with Russia and their invasion of the Ukraine is still a massive factor and there is every chance Russia does not stop there. Something needs to be done I get that, what the best course is is only known for those who know the actual facts and we don’t have them, but with a stage where that budget is now getting the additional “lawmakers appropriated $858 billion in national defence funding — $45 billion more than Biden sought”, almost a trillion dollars is added to the total debt slamming pretty much through the debt ceiling, as far as I can tell issues will rise and things will start to collapse the things got this far out of hand and now the US will face a new domestic danger. You see Wall Street might actually embrace a default. It would give them unparalleled powers in the US, not for a few years or decades, it will solidify their powers for CENTURIES to come and that will make them richer then anything else. That is the nightmare scenario and it is here 3-5 years before I thought it would come, but then I am not an economist and my predictions are more on point than some of the predictions the IMF made, so there.

And if you think that this is merely some paper run, think again. If the US goes into default, where do you think the Ukraine will get there hardware from? When the US falls, so will Japan soon thereafter and the EU is not far behind them, a world that overspent for decades. A world for the taking by China to say the least, optionally 2-3 more players enter that field, but about that more later. And if you think that this is just prancing, think again. As I see it to avoid this setting the US would have to cut budgets by 50%. That pretty much ends the social settings, infrastructure and a few other stages. The nightmare scenario has arrived on the porch of US households and there is no way to predict how this unfolds, we cannot tell because the path will be in part on how Wall Street deems it to be and that is never in favour of any household.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as budget, debt ceiling, Eu, IMF, Japan, Obama, pentagon, Politico, President Biden, Russia, Ukraine, US, Wall Street

February 11, 2023 · 19:17

History, repetition mode

This is a little harder to write about. It actually started in 2017 when I wrote ‘The finality of French freedom’, the story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) makes a few accusations as I personally saw them. We got some kind of a warped excuse towards ‘we made a mistake’ a year later, but I reported it as I saw it, fear mongering by the IMF. Yes, all those people filling their pockets on the Credit Card of the United Kingdom were missing out on exquisite lunches. This was (as I personally saw it) starting to happen again on February 1st when I wrote ‘Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/01/insecure-masturbation-fraternisers-imf/), there we were given via the BBC (no allegations towards them), that the ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023’, ‘expected’ and ‘major’ being key elements there. Now we see “53% of business leaders in France said they expect a recession in 2023”, it is important to note that this does not make that true. All this whilst Reuters reports ‘Meloni: Italy could be in recession in 2023, faces tough times’, here too we see ‘could’ and that is important, but that gives us that there is a case that the IMF is nothing more than a stupid political tool, fear mongering yet again. So we return to the January 31st BBC story where we see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted”, now it is time to look at the story now 17 hours old. Here we see (at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64584295) ‘UK economy avoids recession but not out of woods – Hunt’, where we are given “the ONS revised up its figures for the July to September quarter, to show that the economy shrank by 0.2% instead of the previous estimate of a 0.3% fall”, as well as “some think the UK will avoid a technical recession completely”, as such I also admit that what some admit does not constitute evidence. Yet the fact that the IMF (yet again) makes an error of 0.6% which amounts to almost 23 billion. It is hard to put a number on anything and the flaw seems small, but the 0.6% seems more dangerous than that. The problem is, who is right. One cannot be regarded as wrong because of the negativity, the other cannot be regarded as wrong because of the lessened negative setting. But I can tell you this. The EU credit card is tapped out, the only way to get a handhold on that is by adding the UK back to it, there is no care on how the UK does, it is that if the UK rejoins the EU (after all that bullying) that the EU credit card is back in business and that (especially after the Mario Draghi fiasco’s) should not be allowed. I always stated that things would get worse before they get better and when they get better it becomes a lot better in a hurry, there aren’t 21 countries dragging the UK economy down, as well as their budgets.

There is a much larger field and serious questions might have to be asked about the seeming incompetent acts of the IMF. I would state that a player like the BBC needs to clearly show sources regarding some of their reports, but I get that this might not be possible, yet the time for questions grow ever larger, especially after I showed issues on at least three events. In the end it might be me, but I was right the first time, I have questions the second time and we need to ask questions, especially when the Bremain bullies are out in force and there are indications (not evidence) that the IMF is aiding them. But that is merely my point of view on the matter.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as BBC, economy, France, GDP, IMF, Italy, Jeremy Hunt, Mario Draghi, Meloni, recession, reuters

February 1, 2023 · 14:02

Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers (IMF)

Yup, that is the slogan and to get there we need to take a little trip down memory lane before we get to the article that jogged my memories. You see, it all started on October 10th 2013 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2013/10/10/economic-management-through-newscasts/) where I gave the readers “The same day I get the news on a diplomatic escalation in the Netherlands, sky News UK comes with an entirely different matter. Two elements seemed to be in play. The IMF suddenly lifted the economic growth for the UK by 1.4% for 2013 and for 1.9% for 2014. Those are numbers that are beyond remarkable. Sky News showed Olivier Blanchard the Chief economist of the IMF to make this statement. It was interesting that the IMF calls on Christine Lagarde to give the bad news and Olivier gets to give the good news. There was a shimmer of hope for realism as Ed Conway, economic Editor at Sky News was happy to not reject the notion that the IMF have been lousy forecasters in the past to say the least”, as well as “‘Suddenly’ there was good news, a week before the debt ceiling needs to be raided, whilst the US is still in shutdown mode. Let us not forget that Greece, who also suddenly had ‘good’ news last week is still beyond broke, in addition France and Italy are still not in good shape. The biggest issue is that the UK forecast, which was +0.6%, which was a pretty good achievement to +1.4%. That boils down to a miscalculation of almost $18 Billion! That is a massive miscalculation. There is no indication that such errors were made. Consider that the IMF had high criticism towards the tactics by Chancellor George Osborne, UK’s faithful exchequer.” Are you clued in at present. There is now an indicator that the IMF is nothing more than a political presentation tool to hand out lollies for others to look away as credit limits are increased. It is one of the reasons I went towards Brexit. After the speech by Marky Mark of the British bank (aka Mark Carney, a Canadian no less), I saw the dangers of staying in the EU. Mario Draghi was using a Credit card for trillions after the first trillion was a miss. Now, that happens, solutions are selected hoping it will set the outcome to another stage. There is no fault there, but then he does it again for another 2 trillion. Wasn’t it Albert Einstein that stated that only a lunatic will do the same thing twice hoping for a different outcome? And it wasn’t just me, others had reservations too. There was no outcry when Mario Draghi was shown to be a member of an exclusive bank group. So how much did his friends end up with catering to that debt. Consider that bank bonds have a registration fee and commission. So how much commission did these two dozen people get over three trillion? I can tell you that is would be up to 2%, implying that two dozen people ended up with $600,000,000, not a bad run. So why should the UK pay for that?

Now that we are all caught up (to some extent) it is time to look at the article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995) giving us ‘UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 – IMF’. Now I am not stating that this is not the case, it could be. Yet when we look to 2013 and later, the IMF has played the wrong spades in this game. So when I see words like ‘expected’ and ‘only major economy’ after it took the IMF and Creepy LaStrange (I think that was her name) a year to admit that they made an error of well over $18,000,000,000 I have issues with anything they claim. And when I see “The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted” without clarity I have issues. The numbers could be true, but with the Russian clambake in the Ukraine, the Covid issues (especially in China), the labour shortages and a few other elements that influences the issues, we merely see “Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK outperformed many forecasts last year. But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed the UK “lagging behind our peers”” and charts and numbers how bad the UK is doing, but the problem is that the IMF (or Insecure Masturbation Fraternisers) have been too much like a political tool. They proclaim that Russia is getting a positive boost this year but we do not see that it might be mainly woodworkers to create the 126,650 coffins for lost troops, so their economy is up, but who pays that bill? And in the stage of presentation my issue is that these people are all about ‘forcing’ the UK back into the EU so that their GDP can be added to their credit limit. The EU is running out of credit card space, it has been for a year and the UK revenue is essential to turn that about and people need to wake up to the unaccountable overspending the EU is doing. At present the EU debt is well over €12 trillion with several nations having too much debt. We all know about Greece with over 193% of GDP, Italy surpassed 150% of GDP and Portugal surpassed 125%, Spain is almost at 120%, and France is at almost 115%. The credit limits have been reached and it does not bode well, so all hands on deck forcing the UK back into the EU, but the truth is that once the hardship is passed (which will take some time), the UK will become the power player and the EU will be reduced to a third world nation. So basically at present (a personal view) the German debt of 80% of GDP is the only economy keeping the EU standing. That is not enough and I spoke about that in the past (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2017/03/17/the-finality-of-french-freedom/) in ‘The finality of French freedom’ on the 7th of March 2017 where I wrote “Which is why France is a big deal, that whilst they represent one of four anchors keeping the Euro in place. With the British anchor removed, the stress on the three is intense, the Euro cannot continue with the remaining two anchors that is the desperate game Draghi is facing now. Weakness and non-decisions from 2012 onwards have caused this mess, and of course he is not done yet. As we see in Reuters, last Monday he stated “If non-high-tech companies adopt more innovative technology, that would provide a boost for European productivity“, speaking as the European Central Bank President last Monday, it that so? With what funds? Innovations requires money, such steps have a cost” here I compared the economy with a floating platform kept in place by 4 anchors. It used to be the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Now that the UK is gone, the platform is now in trouble as only the German anchor has any strength left. The economic sea is in turmoil and I already saw this in 2017. Then we got Covid and that stupid bear named Russia and now the economy is a problem, especially for the EU and when that breaks up, the US (Japan also) have no way to go but down and that is what they all fear, they can prolong this if they can bully the UK, but we have seen enough bullies. We all have had enough and that is why I chose Brexit. I could not predict Covid or Russia, but a next economic disaster is alway just past the horizon, there is always a next fire to put out and now the IMF wants to make matters look worse. As I see it, they need a whole range of better and more descriptive numbers. As it stands, at present I do not trust the IMF. Yes the UK could face another recession, but it will be nowhere as bad as the one the EU faces. In the end the UK is part of a Commonwealth and we all (Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom) need to united to face the headwinds of the coming storm, we owe it to each other with the acts of irresponsibility we do not owe the EU and we do not owe the US. The US has had over a quarter of a century to overhaul their tax laws. I made mention on this as early as in the age of President George H. W. Bush (1998) now 25 years ago. I say enough is enough and the IMF better give us a lot more and a lot clearer numbers than what we see in the BBC article. That is my personal point of view on the matter.

1 Comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics, Science

Tagged as Australia, BBC, Brexit, Canada, Christine Legarde, Commonwealth, Covid, Ed Conway, European Central Bank, France, George H. W. Bush, George Osborne, Germany, IMF, India, Italy, Japan, Jeremy Hunt, Mario Draghi, Mark Carney, New Zealand, Olivier Blanchard, Rachel Reeves, Russia, UK, Ukraine, United Kingdom, US

January 3, 2023 · 16:25

Plough through the middle

That is where I find myself. There are two issues on my mind. The first is that I have a definite plot twist for Residuam Vitam (the plot is isn’t everything) but it still matter to the story to have that twist, the ploy no one sees in the beginning and when you ponder it it will make sense. It is like that theft, where in the end things seemingly go sideways, but only if you see it from one side, the other side is the one many overlook. That is where I was.

As such
Ereshkigal was pondering the field she stood in, she saw from here to almost eternity and the field was in disarray. It was the nuance she saw and she had been staring at that nuance since the beginning of time. So she saw any item out of place and the field was starting to skew, it did not take her long to see how it was skewing and something had to be done. She focussed for a mere fraction of a moment and that was all that was needed. As she was looking at the field something walked into her existence. It was Tia that appeared. Tia looked around, she had been here before, but to be asked to come was new to her. She bowed to Ereshkigal. Ereshkigal pointed at the field and asked ‘What do you see?’ Tia looked around and saw the field, she saw all that was and she saw the edges of what was now. She looked again and stared more intensely now. She saw nothing, she saw the patterns, she saw the colours and she saw what as once the people and then she saw the introduction of some sort of cacophony. It was the best she could see. She responded ‘Some form of chaos, a cacophony of sorts’ Ereshkigal nodded. A chaos through absence and even as I am not yet clear on the how and who are involved, the creation of this chaos will have larger impact to all of us, we must act. She then stared at Tia and told her what must be done and who was chosen for this. ‘Do you agree?’ Tia had to think it over for a moment. She was aware on interactions, she had done it many times, but now it was a rare event that involved a living person, a person linked to the Huron spirit no less. She nodded to Ereshkigal. ‘It will be done’ and Tia vanished.

It was the deep of darkness, it was around 03:30, the detective was asleep, but suddenly she wasn’t really asleep anymore. She was asleep lying in her bed watching herself and a man in a chair next to it. The man spoke, hello little utehke, the voice spoke out and she recognised the voice of her father who left her many years ago, so she knew she was asleep, but the bedroom was perfect, with the extra man. Father? She asked. No little utehke, but he is what you see. He joined me a long time ago. Listen for there is little time. There is something happening and it is impacting all lives. I cannot tell you specifics, but I can help. Be calm now, this does not hurt, but it will not be comfortable. And with that the detective suddenly felt noxious, she saw the hand of her father in her head and slowly it felt like it was in her head. Then the head slowly retracted. Sleep now, you feel better soon. You will see more now and it will help you, it might even save you. Learn first do not act rash, too much relies on it and slowly the room where she was watching herself was dissolving and the room turned black and she fell in a deep sleep, unaware what was happening around her. She was for all intent and purpose dead for the smallest moment of time and in that moment another world was revealed to her and she saw almost everything. But the mind, the mortal mind does not like that view and the mind protected itself in the only way it knew. It closed off and reset itself and in that moment the new flavours of mortality invaded her mind and took root in her where the mind, the eye, the ear and the nose met. And she continued on the dreamless sleep she started on, a little different, but still the detective she once was.

What is wealth?
It is the second part that has also occupying my mind. It was given to us by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64142662) where we get ‘Third of world in recession this year, IMF head warns’ there is an issue (I always will have at least one) and lets have that summary.

“It comes as the war in Ukraine, rising prices, higher interest rates and the spread of Covid in China weigh on the global economy.” Yes they are elements, but the war in the Ukraine will mostly affect Russia and Ukraine most of all, not much more beyond that. Well, more on the Russians as they lose more and more of its citizens. As such I have issues with “We expect one third of the world economy to be in recession”, as such my automated answer is ‘What third’ Which nations? And the shallow “Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people”, so now we add ‘feels like recession’? Why is that? What is really happening? What are you the procrastinating source for? Then we get “China, the world’s second largest economy, would face a difficult start to 2023” there is another issue. I am not saying that this is not the case, I have no data to counter that, but China has been playing a long game and that is a different kind of fish. Now that it is reeling in commerce gains from Saudi Arabia and optionally Egypt as well, the silk road is getting primed for completion. A new stage of commercial China that we were warned about and it is getting her faster because stupid people (UK and US) played the wrong game and now that China is moving in these two players are missing out on dozens of billions for their economy and it goes straight to China. That I saw two years ago (perhaps three) but these two players were all about how wrong I was and how it would not go there. As such no one saw the danger when Al Jazeera gave us three weeks ago ‘China, Saudi Arabia cement ties with deals including Huawei’ whatever the west gave us was emotional mumbo jumbo with trivialisation, as well as ‘How Saudi Arabia’s crown prince snubbed Biden repeatedly to forge ties with authoritarian China and Russia’ a mere two days ago which came from Business Insider. And the voice of Jon Alterman adds “they both agree that a unipolar world led by the United States would undermine their interests” a United States trivialised by one simple sentence and China is stepping in. The US and the UK made it happen, they catered to idiots (in case of the UK that would be the CAAT) and there are a few in the US. It led to a shift of well over $35,000,000,000 in funds from both towards China and that is merely the beginning.

The 5G stages that are Huawei are now finding its stage through China and as I see it Egypt is a new choice as well, it now sets the Huawei 5G stage going West of Egypt to East of Saudi Arabia in one nice swoop and Saudi Arabia is about to own it all (via STC that is). When I mentioned that STC would be a force to watch in 5G two years ago people telecom people no less, called me a joke, a freaking joke no less and that is no longer the case, this is about to happen and when the data centres are added Saudi Arabia officially becomes a power player in 5G and on the world stage. The STC what was initially a 35 million group and as such ignored by too many is about to become a voice will well over 175,000,000 people attached for data and voice making it well over twice the size of British Telecom and that is merely the start, when this connects to Neom the damage will add and add and it takes power away from US, UK and European players and I reckon that by 2026 the electronic show in Germany has STC as a main attraction and at that point the growth will really start. Ahead of the 2030 vision Saudi Arabia will be making its international mark in several market places and it was all due to stupid people. When they had an option they were all high and mighty with voices like ‘They will always need us’ but that stage is now hanging, that is now becoming yesterday’s news and whilst these people will try to ‘persuade’ Saudi customers to some kind of bauble race, China will add real value to the table and that race will conclude with the Americans staring at some wooden spoon and no recourse left.

Here is my issue. As we see “The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. They work together to try to stabilise the global economy. One of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system” is seemingly incorrect. I would alter it into “The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. They work together to try to stabilise the global economy for the US and EU as much as possible. One of its key roles is to act as an early economic warning system when its friends are threatened” and then we consider “For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative” and my response would be, no toots (Kristalina Georgieva), you saw it wrong, the data you present is correct, it is the gains that follow that makes China the winner, and these gains are not part of anything you present are they? It was the long game and the Chinese are really good at their long game. So where is the European response to the Silk Road, that news you catered to months ago on how there was an answer. There was none and now you are against a wall with nowhere to go but some cushy retirement place and watch the changing of the guards as China becomes the new president of that world economy. You played the wrong game, you catered to the stupid voices and China was fine with that because they had time. The Huawei/Saudi link wasn’t ready but now that it is the stage changes by a lot and still that link is well over 500% faster than anything the US has to offer and that difference will tilt the economic scales by a lot, and I reckon that the first companies will change to a better setting soon thereafter. I reckon that it takes less than 10% of these companies to change ‘some loss’ to critical recession points, and there is an upside. I saw and wrote about it two years ago, so there will be a record and I get to slap you with it every time around. Because these ‘voices’ with claims need to be set into the limelight and with every answer in the trend of ‘It is difficult’ I will gain a step on that ladder and whenever they rely on ‘There were miscommunications’ I gain two steps. It was never rocket science, it was about the reality of data, not the story these people gave their shareholders. And to illustrate that part reconsider what I wrote yesterday and now consider two hints “Orson Welles” and “1975”, now that tory takes a massive turn to the right, does it not? To do the game of peekaboo with an actual ghost is a lot more satisfying. There is nothing like a gasser whilst the other person has a cardiac arrest in the process. Try it, it is so satisfying.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, IT, Media, Politics, Stories

Tagged as BBC, British Telecom, BT, China, Egypt, Europe, Huawei, IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, Orson Welles, Saudi Arabia, Silk Road, STC, UK, US

November 19, 2021 · 03:28

Uranium, Iranas, Iran it again

Yup, Iran is at it again, or at least that is the common feeling as we see two articles. The first is (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/france-uns-iaea-report-iran-is-extremely-concerning-2021-11-18/) and as we are given ‘France says IAEA governors must help send strong message to Iran’ it seems that the larger truth is starting to hit the big EU players. I have been saying it for months, even years. Yet will it be enough? How long until some media will stop catering to stakeholders (read: digital lobbyists) and give u ALL the things that Iran is up to?

Reuters (at present) gives us “The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s governing board must send a strong message to Iran when it convenes next week, France said on Thursday after two agency reports highlighted Iran’s continued disputed nuclear activities and lack of cooperation”, as such what will see next week? Stronger language or some media setting where we see ‘miraculous’ settings of temporary cooperation whilst some discussions will be delayed? There are all kinds of options and I cannot anticipate them all. So when the article ends with “Western powers scrapped plans in September for a IAEA board resolution rebuking Iran after Tehran agreed to prolong monitoring of some nuclear activities and invited IAEA chief Rafael Grossi to Tehran for talks on outstanding issues”, will we get more of this? Some EU nations just do not get it, any delay, any hesitation will give Iran time to fuel up and more importantly had over dangerous situations off to the Houthi forces and afterwards make some optional vague claim of ‘irresponsible hard line officers of the IRGC’ and at this point I am honestly in the dark whether Iran prefers to hit Israel or Saudi Arabia first. Iran is a larger danger and it is time for some of the western players to stop catering to the ego in their asses and start considering the larger play, the larger danger, because after the act I personally will demand that these idiots will be hung in town squares as a warning to the next three generations of people that some ego plays are too dangerous for the world. We are letting the danger get this close to our front doors.

The second stage is seen (at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemen-moves-tackle-foreign-currency-woes-imf-reserves-offer-untapped-2021-11-18/) with the headline ‘Yemen moves to tackle foreign currency woes, but IMF reserves offer untapped’, now it needs to be stated up front that there is no visible link to Iran here.
Yet when we see “Yemen’s central bank has begun weekly auctions of dwindling foreign exchange reserves to banks in a bid to bolster the currency and temper inflation, and is also seeking to tap IMF reserves offered in August, the bank and an IMF source said.” The next part is speculation on my side. How long until Iran will seek a way to capture the funds offering oil (optionally weapons to) at 70 cents on the dollar? We see “The International Monetary Fund has allocated $655 million worth of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to Yemen, which would boost foreign exchange reserves by 70%, to help ease an acute economic and humanitarian crisis in the war-torn nation.” Yet in all this, how long until optional allies of Iran (Iraq and Syria) will opt for ‘cooperative assistance’? Now take the three stages and consider what one enables, the other offers and it puts both Israel and Saudi Arabia under more and more stress to act? This was exactly why I designed the idea of a solution to push the Iranian power stations into a meltdown. Iran will not learn, it feel enabled to do whatever it wants and now as the nuclear pressure points come when the US and EU cannot afford any economy draining actions, now is the road for Iran to do just that. This was always coming and there was no western ego with the ability to stop it, all the delay actions we have seen over the last few months clearly seem to indicate that this stage is coming to our front doors. In all this China and Russia are smiling at a comfortable distance, and the rest will be in the middle of that glow in the dark shit that Iran will bring. In the 11th hour we will get lobbyists and politicians state some form of ‘oops’ whilst they get out of the way fast, the rest is royally screwed. And if this hits Israel we will have all stood by and let a large eradication of Israeli people happen again. At that point I will shout names and the essential need to hang these ego driven people in town squares. Not unlike the French did in 1793. They used ‘Liberté, égalité, fraternité’, we need an equal. My vote goes to ‘stultitiam, delusio, infirmitas’, we need to be clear about things and Latin is as good a starting point as anything else. At least we avoid a language discussion on the use of French, German or English.

So, how wrong am I?
That remains to be seen and the first dose of reality is only a week away, when we see the absence of strong media representation, the absence of strong language and the absence of clear shot time lines, I feel that my point will be made and I only need to see one of the three to be proven correct. This has been going on for 7 years, enough is enough I say.

In all this Israel and Saudi Arabia will need to make decisions at that time as the west is too flaccid to set clear acts in place. It is my view, feel free to create your own, yet do not forget to take notice of the optional lack of actions. At least I have an idea how to meltdown their reactors, so after that Iran will have its own large issues for years to come, and to be honest, after all what we have seen, it suits me just fine. It honestly does.

2 Comments

Filed under Media, Military, Politics

Tagged as China, France, Germany, IAEA, IMF, International Atomic Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Rafael Grossi, reuters, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tehran, Yemen

October 8, 2019 · 11:22

When the cure is part of the disease

Have you seen that issue in your life, the claim that the cure is worse than the disease, or perhaps that the cure is not worth the disease. There are medical situations where this applies and they are usually used in cases of huge risks, but it is always in a stage where it is about optionally curing the person who got that winning lottery ticket, and the cure will hit him or her full on. It happens, yet what is the stage where the cure is the disease? I am not talking about a vaccine where we are making the body stronger by fighting a weaker version of the disease, no this is a stage where we give the person Ebola or Hantavirus to let the body cure it. The problem becomes that once you have the virus you are actually sick and the complications start from that point onward.

This is the stage we are confronted with in ‘IMF accused of ‘reckless lending’ to debt-troubled states‘ (at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/07/imf-accused-of-reckless-lending-to-debt-troubled-states). It is not merely “the Fund broke its own rules by not ensuring sustainable debt burden“, I personally believe it to be a much larger problem in all this. It is also not merely: “encouraging reckless lending by extending $93bn of loans to 18 financially troubled countries without a debt restructuring programme first“, I believe it to be a larger play to push revenue away from vulture funds to create a systemic problem for these nations to become part of the consumer feeding frenzy to banks for generations. when we see: “Debt sustainability has come into the spotlight over the past year after the IMF controversially lent a record $56bn to Argentina even though its annual debt repayments far exceeded the Fund’s own limit” the given excuse ‘The IMF said Argentina, the second biggest economy in South America, was a special case‘ the handed excuse should be casted aside and given no value at all. the supporting evidence is seen in “The crisis intensified when, on 5 December 2001, the IMF refused to release a US$1.3 billion tranche of its loan, citing the failure of the Argentine government to reach its budget deficit targets” (source: https://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/11/business/argentina-scrambles-for-imf-loans.html). When I asked about the situation about 5 years ago from these so called Australian ‘economic reporters’, none of them had any level of a clear answer for me. The case was clear 5 years ago when certain vulture funds issues got to the surface, and now 17 years later they are giving out $56 billion, whilst refusing a $1.3 billion option 17 years earlier. There is a much larger flaw in all this and there have been whispers (read: gossip) that the IMF is very much into facilitating towards the needs of Wall Street and the financial operators out there. The bottom dollar line of Wall Street needs to be met and no one cares how it is done.

the stage becomes a lot less acceptable when we consider the stage Afghanistan; Angola; Cameroon; Central African Republic; Chad; Ecuador; Egypt; Ghana; Jordan; Mauritania; Mongolia; Pakistan; São Tomé and Príncipe; Sierra Leone; Sri Lanka; Tunisia; and Ukraine, all whilst Egypt, Pakistan and Ecuador are regarded as high risk, I personally feel that the risk factors of Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Jordan are also way above normal with only Jordan being in a better long term position however, if Jordan does not address its water shortage issues, Jordan could drop into the ultra-high risk group a lot faster than anyone could state: ‘Would you like a glass of water?‘, and in all this we see a larger failing.

It becomes a more visible issue when we see the IMF spin doctors at work. We partially accept the statement: “More than half that amount is accounted for by one programme – Argentina, which has unique circumstances“, yet I am much less forgiving when I see: “We have clear guidelines about not lending into unsustainable debt situations and all programmes require approval by the IMF’s executive board“. It is my response that they publish clearly all their guidelines (and policies), but we will not ever get that. In addition, the Argentina matter after the Vultures were done with it is also a failing of the highest degree, the fact that over 17 years $1.3 billion has required $56 billion implies more than merely 4,300% more funds needed. It gives rise that over 17 years a debt increase of 23% year on year was accumulated one way or another. It is a direct optional sign of complete and utter governmental financial malfeasance. It is a failure on a scale never seen before and the fact that no one stepped in shows the larger failure by the IMF. You see, the overall lack of illumination also constitutes evidence that the players wanted this to be kept out of the lime lights.

In addition, when we look at the 17 nations, when we ignore the obvious three, we see a larger issue in Jordan. Jordan stepped up and towards the issue that there are well over 1.4 million refugees in Jordan and Jordan was not ready in any way shape or form to deal with that. In their current state the Jordan desalination plants will not be able to keep up (so far it cannot keep up) and the fact that the Jordan population grew by 14% in 2-3 years due to the refugees was never clearly illuminated and now Jordan has a larger issue, even if another desalination plant is added in the Gulf of Aqaba, the issue will not diminish and the loans towards Jordan would become unsustainable. In addition, when you consider Sri Lanka, the newspapers all gave the same quote a month ago: ‘Sri Lanka’s economy has shown a ‘fair bit of resilience’‘, they quoted that to the letter, yet who was feeding them that information? Only 14 hours ago we see: “Sri Lanka’s tourist arrivals in September were down 27.2% from a year earlier“, those factors did not really change did they? When we consider a month ago, we see an economy that is getting hit hard, especially when Reuters gives us: “a sixth consecutive monthly fall“. It seems to me that Sri Lanka are betting on the required roll of the dice, when we get the clear indication that the dice are loaded and it seems that they are loaded towards the needs of the IMF/Wall Street and not in favour of Sri Lanka.

When we add the Reuters information: “Arrivals in the five months from May to September were down 44.4% to 468,737 from 843,569 a year earlier” we get a level of clear indication that the quote: ‘Sri Lanka’s economy has shown a ‘fair bit of resilience’‘ should be seen as media BS. And there is more regarding Sri Lanka, the quote less than 24 hours ago is “Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera said all the money the current government has borrowed since 2016 was to repay the loans of the previous government of Mahinda Rajapaksa“, if that is true, then there are additional questions towards the IMF in regards to their spin doctors giving us: “Our decisions to lend to countries are not simply based on numerical thresholds, but on comprehensive debt sustainability analyses and policies needed to address economic imbalances and debt burdens“, which in the case of Sri Lanka shows a much larger issue, the fact that the quote on repaying from a previous government and that loan has been in place for 3 years shows a larger problem, so how much was given to them? In addition to this I wonder how much of the $56 billion is going to Elliott Advisors, so much is the IMF helping out Manhattan bad boy Paul Singer? In my view, the question becomes: ‘How much of the $56 billion goes to Hedge funds manager Paul Singer?‘ Under those conditions I reckon anyone could get their fingers on the penthouse in Sky Lofts building in Manhattan’s Tribeca neighbourhood. If it is good enough for Bobby Axelrod (Damian Lewis), it is good enough for the Lawlordtobe (Lawrence van Rijn), and I could do with a change of scenery, especially if Google buys my 5G IP portfolio.

So if my new address becomes 145 Hudson St New York, NY 10013, I promise that I will not consider the ’13’ in my zip code to be a bad omen and at least I will not have used the IMF to gain my fortune (although I will admit that I am perfectly willing to do that too #weallneedtoeat).

When we see these two issues and we see that I have not even looked at the 12 others (three were known issues) I wonder when any reporter will give us the entire down low on these so called analyses and policies that the IMF has in place, I feel with some level of certain ty that I will find a lot more issues under the waterline than the IMF spin doctors will be able to hide. Especially when we realise the quote in the Guardian: “concerns that a general election later this month will oust incumbent president, Mauricio Macri, in favour of the populist Alberto Fernández and his running mate, the former president Cristina de Kirchner, triggered a flight of investors, a run on the currency and sent the interest rate on the country’s publicly traded debts soaring“, more important, under that change the entire case which would have been part of the $56 billion ‘donation’ that we see through “Argentina agreed to reduce its fiscal deficit to 1.3% of GDP this year, down from 2.2% previously and a balanced budget next year“, especially when we see the required drop of 0.9% deficit, I cannot remember any elected official making that part of their campaign, it tends to leave them unelected at the polls, so in all this, not only does the JDC have a point, we see that Sarah-Jayne Clifton, director of Jubilee Debt Campaign should be considered to be a lot more serious and is in my personal view entitled to massive dose of limelight from the global media, so that she can ask the questions that the IMF would have to explain in a clear and transparent way, would you like to take a bet on the chance of that actually happening?

I believe that people like Paul Singer will set that bet to an estimated 250:1 chance (of it not happening), and as he personally was able to acquire $3.5 billion, I am not putting my hopes on high here. I merely wonder if the people in Argentina have any decent level of Christmas to look forward to this year and the many years that follow.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as Alberto Fernández, Argentina, Axe Capital, Bobby Axelrod, Cristina de Kirchner, Damian Lewis, Ebola, Elliott Advisors, google, Gulf of Aqaba, Hanta, IMF, JDC, Jordan, Jubilee Debt Campaign, lawlordtobe, Lawrence van Rijn, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Mangala Samaraweera, Mauricio Macri, New York, New York Times, NY Times, Paul Singer, reuters, Sarah-Jayne Clifton, Sky Lofts building, Sri-Lanka, the Guardian, Tribeca, Vulture Funds, Wall Street

September 5, 2019 · 14:50

The new politics

I still feel shivers lately when people like Jeremy Corbyn refer to the UK as a democracy. We could overly vocal voice that leaving democracy to an anti-Semite is slightly too uncomfortable. To illustrate this I refer to the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45030552), The quote: “In April 2019, the Sunday Times reported that Labour had received 863 complaints against party members, including councillors. The newspaper claimed leaked e-mails it had seen showed more than half of the cases remained unresolved while there had been no investigation in 28% of them. It said fewer than 30 people had been expelled while members investigated for posting online comments such as “Heil Hitler” and “Jews are the problem” had not been suspended. Labour disputed the reports while Jewish Voice for Labour, a newly constituted group supportive of Mr Corbyn, maintained the number of cases being investigated represented a tiny fraction of Labour’s 500,000 plus membership.” is central here. I would accept ‘the number of cases being investigated represented a tiny fraction of Labour’s 500,000 plus membership‘, yet in political places, this is too much headway and too much festering, as such there is a debilitating level of mistrust when these issues are not investigated, and with almost one third not being investigated, the issue is a rather large one. Then we get to BBC Panorama’s “Mr Corbyn’s communications chief Seumas Milne – had interfered in the process of dealing with anti-Semitism complaints“, which in itself is a clear indication that the stage is much larger than we are led to believe. The BBC In August 2018 gave additional visibility not merely to his links with Terrorism, the quote: “critics have pointed out that a photograph from the event appears to show him standing opposite the graves of Atef Bseiso and Salah Khalaf, two senior PLO officers who were accused of links to the Munich attack and were assassinated“, we now have two options. Either Corbyn was played, or he is too sympathetic towards terrorists, in either case this is not some path to peace as the quote: “he had attended the event in Tunis as part of a wider event about the search for peace” was given. So either he got played (which I would accept to some degree), or he has too strong ties to extreme anti-Israel groups, either way the man should not be allowed in UK politics.

This is not merely about Jeremy Corbyn; this is a much larger setting. The setting is European. You see there is a shift going on and it is a very dangerous one. The UK is and should always be a Monarchy, as a monarchy the UK looks after ALL its citizens, rich, poor, well off and anyone not well off. This is opposing the European model which is overwhelmingly a Corporatocracy, more dangerously, it has in the last three years instilled a much stronger stage of corpocracy and these two are not the same. Let me explain.

A corpocracy is a corporate bureaucracy, characterized by ineffective management (EU Gravy train anyone?)

This is important, because this is a very dangerous stage, it affects democracy and more important deflates the long term chance that any democracy can be effectively applied. This is pushed by three parts; corporations, interest groups and what I call the Jackal gang.

I do not have to explain the corporations. The interest groups is another matter, here in one example we see in the Guardian (at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/no-deal-brexit-food-shortages-brc), in the example we get Andrew Opie, the director of food and sustainability of the British Retail Consortium telling us: “Our assessment is based on discussion with our members, who move fresh food every day, and the likely disruption“, as well as “We modelled that with our members who have told us there will be disruption to fresh food“, these statements were casually accepted. Yet WHO checked and critically investigated ‘We modelled that with our members‘, modelling implies algorithms, modelling implies a state of data analytics, dash boarding and optionally clear reports. Who checked those? Andrew Opie? He has one goal, to keep markings for his members as high as possible and Brexit gets in that way. He is not alone; there are dozens if not hundreds who have been playing that game playing the fear monger card again and again in the last three years. How much famine was there in the UK in the 70’s and before? This is not about supply, this is about expedited margins and the media is not telling the people this, they are not investigating this to the degree they should. The people are merely pushed into fear towards remaining in the EU and that gravy train is too expensive for all of us. The EU has well over €3 trillion debt and there is no path that leads to any exit, not for generations and this benefits the banks, it benefits the people on the EU gravy train, it does not benefit small businesses, it does not benefit the people and there is no end in sight. Brexit was the first clear step to make things better for the British people and the people in the commonwealth in the long term, yet the US, corporations and the IMF will not entertain it, they have too much to lose.

And this is not over, it is about to get worse. We see this in the Financial Times (at https://www.ft.com/content/0ff70e24-cef8-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f) even as it seemingly starts low key with “Christine Lagarde has called on European governments to co-operate more closely over fiscal policy to stimulate the stuttering Eurozone economy” which changes tune as we get: “aimed at rich economies like Germany and the Netherlands, she said governments who “have the capacity to use the fiscal space available to them” should spend on improving their infrastructure“, she did not mention some balance of infrastructure and reducing debt, no reducing debt is off the table. And as we get: “The central bank could “direct” its corporate asset purchases towards green bonds once the EU and other regulators have agreed on a common framework for green finance“, which is the foundation for another Stimulus, a plan that failed twice is now again being used to create more debt and pushing what seemingly was once a democracy into a corpocratic Corporatocracy, a stage where nations are no longer in charge, corporations are and we see that push more and more, the fact that freedom of choice in the UK is no longer honoured, as well as the fact that freedom of choice is now regarded as a natural disaster is a clear stage on that road.

Voicing it into a stage where it’s called ‘fiscal stimulus‘ creating the regard that the ECB needs to be to be ‘agile’ in facing economic trouble is merely a relabelled stage where Wall Street and its banks are deciding what Europeans and Brits are allowed to do and short sighted politicians are actually handing them the national keys to do just that. In the age of an aging population that is even more dangerous, for the mere reason that the debts cannot continue a stage of retirement, making the validity of aged people almost obsolete. Again this is all in the view of Corporatocracy; for them the bottom line is margins and profits, to get that 100% needs to be an enabler or a consumer, the rest has no value and we are pushing more and more in this direction.

The Washington Post (at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/lagarde-defends-european-central-bank-stimulus-at-hearing/2019/09/04/17abb148-cf10-11e9-a620-0a91656d7db6_story.html) gives us part of the Corporatocracy setting.

In the line “uncertainty over tariffs has sideswiped the 19-country Eurozone as businesses delay investments and new orders“, the fact that any delay has that much of an influence on American needy people is almost too unacceptable. This is more than just the ‘turmoil from the U.S.-China trade conflict‘. We can (speculatively) consider the line: “it could disrupt business dealings between the U.K. and the 27 remaining members“, which in light of “Britain is currently scheduled to leave the European Union. If that happens without a divorce agreement to smooth trade” is not about ‘smooth trade’ at all, this is about managed maximised margins, something Wall Street relies on very fucking heavily, so the entire stage where the new ECB ruler is not one of the other banks, but the previous sceptre wielder of the IMF is a much larger issue, it is also a case that the US is a lot more in charge of Europe that we think. Consider the amounts of debts and the fact that no one has that much money. A stage where two banks lend each other on paper $2 trillion, whilst neither has the funds. It is one situation that will lose control more and more and the important questions are not being asked. When we see Francois Villeroy de Galhau (Governor of the Bank of France), Klaas Knot (ECB policy maker) and Madis Muller (ECB policy maker) are a few of a growing group of people opposing stimulus (read: massively sceptical), whilst the one in favour (former IMF) is now President elect of the ECB. The one doesnot imply the other, yet the stage where we see “resumption of bond purchases now would be disproportionate to economic conditions” is merely one option, there might be more, but stimulus is what the US and a corpocratic Corporatocracy requires to keep the margins and the people get to pay that invoice. More importantly the lack of oversight and the lack of transparency gives sway for the ECB bank to do whatever it wants, whenever it thinks it needs to.

In what kind of a democracy did Europeans sign up for that?

Corporatocracy

I mentioned that in an earlier blog, it is a state where corporations decide on matters and that is what we see to the much larger extent at present. It is an age where social securities collapse, housing is close to redundant and the age of age discrimination is at an all-time high. All issues visible to a larger extent. I mentioned a few other parts earlier in this article and that is merely the beginning. I needed to make this mention because it is time to explain another phrase I threw your way.

The Jackal gang

This is a group of facilitators and exploiters. The Jackal gang is pretty much everywhere, the problem is that the intentional ones are not the same as the beneficiary players. Let me explain the difference. There are vultures, which are pure carrion eaters, they devour whatever is no longer living (or too close to death to see the difference), with vultures we see a group of people who drop down on companies pronounced dead, or basically no longer serving and they take the pickings. This is the foundation of Vulture funds as well, Argentina being an excellent example in the past and they are about to become a repetitive example soon again. The 2001 default is one stage where Vulture Funds swept in to get nice pickings. Let’s face it, the Argentinians decided to go this way (no one else was offering). Opposing the Vultures are the Jackals, they are like Vultures carrion eaters, yet there is another side, Jackals also take on the sick and the weakened, in a pack they can take down a larger opponent and because the opponent was not dead the pickings are a lot better. In this example the Gravy Train (a first class experience that is always on the road with all the amenities); the gravy train is a large behemoth, it has all kinds of connections. There are subsidised needs, there are research and grant needs and there are logistical needs as well as operational ones. In this stage we see the beneficiary ones; they are merely offering a service like a hotel, lunch services, dry cleaning and so on. They are merely services that a person needs to rely on, yet in another stage when it is a catering service that is ALWAYS called on, or a mother organisation that gets all the contracts, we see the Jackal group. These people are all linked in one way or another and that is how the Gravy train operates and there are large amounts of money involved. To get you a more apt example, we look at the ECB and its part in the Greek financial tragedy (definitely not written by Sophocles).

Here we need to consider that the Securities Market Programme threatens the ECB’s legitimacy as the potential fiscal role is an inappropriate activity for an independent central bank. Some actions are valid as well as appropriate. when we see “In the event of a wholesale creditor run based solely on self-fulfilling expectations, it is reasonable for a central bank to intervene and act as a lender of last resort to financial institutions that would otherwise be solvent” we see an appropriate act. Yet in case of “The failing of the institution is that it is not credible that it is willing to purchase enough of the debt to contain the run. Unfortunately, the ECB’s insistence on secrecy with respect to the programme is particularly damaging. It is widely believed that the average discount to face value paid for the Greek debt acquired (prior to August at least) was no more than 20%. The national central banks appear to have sought out the lucky counterparties. And, the ECB won’t say who they are or how much they paid” is a stage where there is no transparency, the gains are not disclosed, there is a failing on managing the debt and the matter goes from bad to worse (source: CEPR’s policy portal, Anne Sibert). The issue was also illuminated in ‘Buiter, Willem (2009), “Recapitalising the Banks through Enhanced Credit Support: Quasi-Fiscal Shenanigans in Frankfurt”, Maverecon, Financial Times, 28 June‘.

A matter that should have been dealt with to a much larger degree now as this goes all the way back to 2011, the fact that another stimulus is coming lacking transparency is a huge deal, it implies that trust in the ECB needs to be revoked and written off (read: discarded).

I grant you from the very beginning that the this is a very complex matter (and I am all out of Economic degrees as I never had one), yet I know data and a lot of it is not adding up, questions that should be on the front of everyone’s mind are seemingly not openly asked or the existence of the questions are denied. The entire issue of Brexit as it is playing out is less about democracy and too much about the politics of pleasing large corporations, there are too many questions and quotes are merely copied by the media and not questioned and that is a democratic failing of the largest degree. Jeremy Corbyn with: “Jeremy Corbyn became the first Opposition leader in history to block a general election on Wednesday night” (source: The Telegraph) might be the most visible example, but he is not alone, there are scores of MP’s playing the ‘remain’ card and as I personally see it they should all be investigated. Consider the direct description of treason: ‘the crime of betraying one’s country, especially by attempting to overthrow the government‘, is that definition and that is what we see here. It is the stage we see now and many sources in the media are all about ‘quoting’ and not about investigating, it is the failure that must be fixed. Well, perhaps the option is to award certain politicians with the William Joyce medal. I am offering the thought that Jeremy Corbyn is to be reviewed to see if he should get the first one, who is with me?

The new politics are not about claiming and presenting, but the need to show allegiance and give proper explanation on why exactly things were done. Would that not make political life a lot more transparent? The ECB could learn from that, so two herrings caught with one rod.

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Media, Politics

Tagged as Andrew Opie, Atef Bseiso, BBC, BBC Panorama, Brexit, British Retail Consortium, Christine Lagarde, corpocracy, Corporatocracy, ECB, EU Gravy train, Financial Times, François Villeroy de Galhau, France, Governor of the Bank of France, Greece, IMF, Jackal gang, Jeremy Corbyn, Jewish Voice for Labour, Klaas Knot, libya, Madis Muller, PLO, Salah Khalaf, Securities Market Programme, Seumas Milne, Sophocles, the Guardian, The Sunday Times, Tunis, Vulture Funds, Wall Street, Willem Buiter, William Joyce medal

September 3, 2019 · 11:05

Anacusis through silence

This is about an article I wrote on June 2nd 2018, the title ‘Cheese Pizza with Oregano‘. The story (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2018/06/02/cheese-pizza-with-oregano/) looks at the finance situation that the big 4 face. With Brexit 7 weeks away that premise is becoming a lot more important. You see the big 4 (including the UK) had a lot of debt, now the issues for the UK do not dwindle, yet the other three are in a less savoury position. As sources gave us then we see: “Spain will have refinancing requirements that exceed €300 billion per annum before 2022. In 2018, 41.2 billion euro, in 2019, 82.4, in 2020 83.9 and in 2021 58.5 billion euro, with 60.4 billion maturing in 2022“, the second part is not Spain, it is Italy where we see: “4 billion euro maturities in 2018, 161 billion in 2019, 164 billion in 2020 and 172.5 billion euro in 2021“. Bloomberg (at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-29/conte-s-five-star-democrat-coalition-offers-italy-respite) gave us last week ‘Italy’s Unlikely Allies Offer a Brief Respite From Crisis‘, a brief respite is not a solution and there well over a quarter of a trillion Euro to refinance in Europe alone. Where is that coming from? You see Italy is merely one of three players that is in the deep waters, I have no numbers on Germany, yet Spain is in a similar place and whilst we thing that there is no issue, there is. Two nations represent an outstanding invoice totaling €250,000,000,000 due in three months and there is no real solution (as far as I can see it). Refinancing is fine by the banks; with the added interest these two nations will sign an addition burden of no less than €2,500,000,000 and optionally close to twice that amount. This implies that in the two nations every person adds between €24 and €50 to their debt (read: taxes) just to pay for the increased interest. You might not think this is a lot and over a year it seems little but EVERY person in Spain and Italy must pay it, no exceptions and it is merely to pay for the additional interest on the debt, not the debt itself and next year it will be about twice as much and with the outstanding debt still there (I am ignoring the debt of 2018), in 2019 people will have to pay between €75 and €150 each, young, old, it will not matter. So how large is the percentage of people that have to face this invoice and have no means to pay it? Those having to live below the current poverty line is clearly one of these groups and it is not a small group. We all are placed in denial of outstanding bills because the media seemingly ignores it. I gave warning to this in 2017, I reiterated it in 2018 and now the issue is on the doorstep, pushing it forward one more year will make it all come apart. It is the clear stage of deafness through silence. If we keep silent, it goes away. Well, there is some news for you. Anyone who ever faced a debt collector can tell you, it never goes away and that feeling of hardship can follow you up to a quarter of a century. And all this is negating the French situation. Germany is in a much better place, but when the recession hits it will deteriorate and in addition, Germany is seemingly tired of carrying the burden of irresponsible politicians. And when it comes to France, I personally wonder how much Credit Agricole gets to pocket this time around (perhaps you remember the Libor scandal). I agree that Credit Agricole was not alone in this, yet this time around Deutsche bank and Credit Suisse have additional problems and they are not in a position to get caught with their fingers in the cookie jar (or is that fingers in the cocky jar?)

the problem is that these people tend to not learn, in addition, the wealth tends to outrun the fine by a fair bit and that is where the problem lies, the issues of debt needed to have been negated harshly a lot sooner and these governments pushed it forward again and again and this now directly interacts with any additional stimulus, because Spain, Italy, France and Germany (Germany a lot less) will get to feel the pinch on both ends of the pliers, the Stimulus branch and the refinancing branch. The UK is not out of reach of it all, but as it is on the way out it cannot be held responsible for a lot of these upcoming cost and the remain group just does not realise how much money is added to the debt in that way. It was the biggest issue that mattered and it has arrived at the front door of the UK, The Brexit door avoids that issue that was part of the larger problem all along. And now 12 of the 27 nations are eager to say yes to whatever infusion they can manage also becomes a worry, as they now face a much larger share of that expense, so they are complaining as loud as possible.

Even now as we see the Coup D’état message of: ‘Brussels would reluctantly agree Brexit extension if rebel MPs succeed in preventing no-deal‘, and other messages of delay, the delay is essential for Europe because they decided to remain in denial of Brexit, for three years these EU people got fat wages and remained possum, so now we see a larger issue. What use is the EU when it cannot contain any control over the irresponsible spending of the ECB? What use is the EU when the players have shown an inability to get a proper budget? The problem is actually a lot larger. You see the next part is speculative and I cannot prove it, but bare (or bear) with me. It connects to the IMF Data produced for the year 2018. Now we can agree that there is always an interaction. There is expected positive and actual positive. My issue is that EVERY nation in the EU gained (actually except Turkey). All are gaining, now we can agree that most might have had a positive impact, yet when we look back at the news we see: “The weaker end to the year weighed on the economy’s performance in 2017 overall, with growth revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%” (the Guardian), “Britain’s economy slowed to a virtual standstill in the first three months of 2018” (the Guardian), “It felt as though the sector was losing its lifeblood this month as Brexit worries continued to claw away at confidence, new orders and business margins” (the Independent) all these bad news linking Brexit, all whilst the IMF data shows that nominal GDP numbers for the UK went up by 7%.

IMPORTANT

Now there are two important parts here. The first is that the metrics are not the same, yet the premise of one side claiming that there are losses, the positive is down, yet the year before the IMF showed that the UK GDP went down by 0.011% the numbers make no sense, we are thrown between different metrics and those different metrics do not reflect the battering news again and again. The people are being handled with data that is not reliable and that part is obvious not reported on. Just like the news three years ago that the IMF reported that UK austerity was a really bad idea, something that they had to retract later on. The second danger is that the GDP is a lot more complex, yet the premise that the UK economy is so bad, so less good and growing so much less so than before the Brexit ‘threat’ is not seen in a -0.011% versus a plus 7%. Even I agree that 7% is way too positive, but these are the reported numbers and they do not add up, not compared to the media and all the anti-Brexit reporting.

This comes to blows when we see the issues in the other large three European players. In addition, the setting ignores the fact that the medium economies (Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden) had been doing a lot better. Their economies might be ‘too’ small, yet their good venture might reflect to Eastern Europe to a much larger degree. Merely agreeing with the big four is seemingly folly too.

Oh, and before I forget, we can now also consider the forceful removal of any politician in the European economic field if so desired. They can be fired without any legal repercussions at present. The EU enabled us to do that when they decided to label the no-deal Brexit as a major natural disaster. This works for the remain as well as the Brexit group as the ECB was the biggest flaw in all this. When the Coup D’état works in the UK, we can demand the immediate firing of Mario Draghi and his ECB associates (read: cronies). If the economy is seen as a natural disaster, those setting and prolonging the stage of a natural disaster are wielders of that natural disaster and as such should be pushed out of office without pay.

I wonder if they thought that through, I guess not. I hope I did not oversimplify matters here 😉

Leave a comment

Filed under Finance, Politics

Tagged as Austerity, Belgium, Brexit, Coup D’état, Crédit Agricole, ECB, Eu, France, Germany, IMF, Italy, LIBOR, Mario Draghi, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK

Tag Archives: IMF

Recent Posts

Archives