It is strong, it is optionally regarded as disrespectful, but seeing the BBC give us ‘Ukraine claims to control 1,000 sq km of Russian territory’, the story (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo) comes with the underline of President Putin called stating “Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the incursion as a “large-scale provocation” that involved “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses and ambulances.”” (Source: Baltimore Sun). So how does it feel to have the shoe on the other foot?
Lets not forget
Russia has bombed hospitals, churches, refuge’s and civilians with intention. Now after almost devastating losses the Ukraine is expanding into Russia. Ukraine is coming to Russia and calling these new lands optionally their new home. It is a little bit speculative, because there is no clear path. As I can see it, Moscow will soon have another name (my wishful thinking) and the Ukraine has already found a new home as their community building, it will be the Kremlin. It might be a little too soon for that thought. But there is another setting. The other setting is that several GRU members will be wanting a way out. Not everyone is agreeing with the picture that President Putin is painting and as such GRU officers with folders on the agreements on Pascal Hillebrand, Thierry Baudet and other like minded people will be eagerly wanted by the Dutch AIVD and media. Not to mention the army of internet troll media arrangers who are doing real damage to European, American, Australian and Canadian democracies. All that became an optional reality when Ukraine took land from Russia.
This hasn’t happen since Stalin (1941) when the Germans started operation Barbarossa. Now there is a setting we shouldn’t dispense with, Russia could mobilise their entire army now. The problem is that they have plenty to sow into that region. It weakens the Russian forces to a massive degree. When you have an army that merely covers 70% of your country and pushing it to different areas, more areas will be weakened. The second setting is that it will take longer for Russia to ever recover. The amounts lost and the lack of a properly functioning logistics and equipment supervision, for that matter the actual availability of equipment are all matters that are strangling Russian forces. Using your finger saying ‘pew, pew, pew’ doesn’t really work on forces who have seen their homes devastated, and it was an unprovoked devastation. Being that the Russian forces are relying on North Korean and Chinese arms to an increasing degree is also not to be underestimated.
On a sideline (making it about me), there is still the plans to ‘make’ Russian nuclear reactors go into meltdown mode. Should Ukrainian forces enable that part than the loss of a mere 3 reactors will put Moscow into dark mode, no electricity and no heating. Taking in consideration that things turn cooler in November which lasts until mid February and it stays snowy until April. You see concrete and steel buildings are nice, but without heating they nearly instantly turn into refrigerators and sleeping there is a one stop location to the death sleep.
Frightened yet?
That was the part Russia forgot about, and people like Vladimir Solovyov and Vladimir Molchanov forgot about. We saw their ranting on YouTube and they all forgot what happens when their turn is up. They never thought Russia could be attacked, but the aggressive nature that Russia employed since February 2022 now has a new wrinkle. As Putin announced the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, he claimed to commence a “special military operation”, side-stepping a formal declaration of war. Now that comes to bite him and his ‘friends’ will soon be a lot more afraid then they thought they ever could be. In the mean time I designed several new weapons, one to cluster down on Russian harbours and that is a nice piece of icing (DARPA eat your heart out). You see most weapons are about destruction, as such I designed a steal approach to dislodging. It seems less ‘effective’ but there is nothing as effective as taking an entire port out of commission. OK, I admit that some harbours will merely be in part less effective. Russia has a nice navy when it doesn’t work it is merely a bundle of steel going nowhere. And as they lose their Black Sea and Atlantic abilities, they will see the disaster they unfolded in 2022. Consider (merely consider) that Zapadnaya Litsa is take off the operational board, that and their Arkhangelsk become set pieces in a Russian comedy called ‘What do we do now’?
How will it go from here?
I have no idea, but the fact that the Ukraine captured land from Russia was unforeseen by everyone, Russia least of all. So when we consider “A senior British military source, who asked not to be named, told the BBC there was the risk that Moscow will be so angered by this incursion that it could redouble its own attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population and infrastructure” is decently accurate, but then Russia had bombed Ukraine pretty much into the stone age. This is the setting where we see that people stated that this would be over in 2-3 days, it is now year two and Russia is losing lands. That is the reality they fece and as such a lot more domino stones will be falling over. I am partially hoping that several GRU and FSB officers will defect the bad place they are in and come with their files to other places outside Russia. They still need proper vetting as this is a tactic that dead spies cater too (a Sun Tzu reference, Chapter 13). But it is clear that Russia has now a different kettle of fish on their table and they were never ready for that part.
So as we revisit the current losses consider how come that the 20th strongest army is setting such losses on one of the top three armed armies of the world?
When we consider that for about 5 hundred years we have seen the expedition of logistics, hardware distribution, armed forces and intelligence gathering. So how come that a 2-3 day war has become a 2-3 year war? I stated a partial in ‘On the subject of failure’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/), yet an capture the land against Russia was never a reality, how wrong I was and I was not alone there as the BBC now shows me.
All war is founded in deception, a quote that China came up with over 2000 years ago, to see it to this degree is almost unbelievable, so President Putin had clear documentation that could have prevented this. How the mighty fall.
Enjoy this day, my Tuesday ends in 20 minutes, Vancouver is just about to start their day with waffles, eggs and more.





X to the power of sneaky
I was honestly a little surprised this morning when I saw the news pass by. The BBC (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67137773) gives us ‘Twitter glitch allows CIA informant channel to be hijacked’. To be honest, I have no idea why they would take this road, but part of me gets it. Perhaps in the stream of all those messages, a few messages might never be noticed. The best way to hide a needly is to drop it in a haystack. Yet the article gives us “But Kevin McSheehan was able to redirect potential CIA contacts to his own Telegram channel” giving us a very different setting to the next course of a meal they cannot afford. So when we are given “At some point after 27 September, the CIA had added to its X profile page a link – https://t.me/securelycontactingcia – to its Telegram channel containing information about contacting the organisation on the dark net and through other secretive means”, most of us will overlook the very setting that we see here and it took me hours to trip over myself and take a walk on the previous street to reconsider this. So when we are given “a flaw in how X displays some links meant the full web address had been truncated to https://t.me/securelycont – an unused Telegram username” the danger becomes a lot more visible. And my first thought was that a civilian named McSheehan saw this and the NSA did not? How come the NSA missed this? I think that checking its own intelligence systems is a number one is stopping foreign powers to succeed there and that was either not done, or the failing is a lot bigger then just Twitter. So even as the article ends with “The CIA did not reply to a BBC News request for comment – but within an hour of the request, the mistake had been corrected” we should see the beginning not the end of something. So, it was a set of bungles that starts with the CIA IT department, that goes straight into the NSA servers, Defence Cyber command and optionally the FBI cyber routines as well. You see, the origin I grasp at is “Installation of your defences against enemy retaliation” and it is not new, It goes back to Julius Caesar around 52BC (yes, more then two millennia ago). If I remember it correctly he wrote about it in Commentarii de Bello Gallico. Make sure your defences are secure before you lash out is a more up to date setting and here American intelligence seemingly failed.
Now, we get it mistakes will be made, that happens. But for the IT department of several intelligence departments to miss it and for a civilian in Maine to pick it up is a bit drastic an error and that needs to be said. This is not some Common Cyber Sense setting, this is a simple mistake, one that any joker could make, I get that. My issue is that the larger collection of intelligence departments missed it too and now we have a new clambake.
Yes, the CIA can spin this however they want, but the quote “within an hour of the request, the mistake had been corrected” implies that they had not seen this and optionally have made marked targets of whomever has linked their allegiance to the CIA. That is not a good thing and it is a setting where (according to Sun Tzu) dead spies are created. Yet they are now no longer in service of America, but they are optionally in service of the enemies of the USA and I cannot recall a setting where that ever was a good thing. You see, there was a stage that resembles this. In 942 the Germans instigated Englandspiel. A setting where “the Abwehr (German military intelligence) from 1942 to 1944 during World War II. German forces captured Allied resistance agents operating in the Netherlands and used the agents’ codes to dupe the United Kingdom’s clandestine organisation, the Special Operations Executive (SOE), into continuing to infiltrate agents, weapons, and supplies into the Netherlands. The Germans captured nearly all the agents and weapons sent by the United Kingdom” For two years the Germans had the upper hand, for two years the SOE got the short end of that stick and this might not be the same, but there is a setting where this could end up being the same and I cannot see that being a good thing for anyone (except the enemies of America). Now, I will not speculate on the possible damage and I cannot speculate on the danger optional new informants face or the value of their intelligence. Yet at this point I think that America needs to take a hard look at the setting that they played debutante too. I get it, it is not clear water, with any intelligence operation it never is. Yet having a long conversation with the other cyber units is not the worst idea to have. You see, there is a chance someone copied the CIA idea and did EXACTLY the same thing somewhere else. As such how much danger is the intelligence apparatus in? Come to think of it, if Palantir systems monitor certain server actions, how did they miss it too? This is not an accusation, it is not up to Palantir to patrol the CIA, but these systems are used to monitor social media and no one picked up on this?
Just a thought to have on the middle of this week.
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Tagged as Abwehr, BBC, CIA, Commentarii de Bello Gallico, Common Cyber Sense, DoD, Englandspiel, FBI, Julius Caesar, Kevin McSheehan, Maine, NSA, Palantir, SOE, Special Operations Executive, Sun Tzu, Twitter