Category Archives: Media

November 2, 2024 · 07:04

Strangled by greed

I saw an article in the BBC last week, I took notice as it collided with something else I saw, but I could no longer find it. The article (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6er83ene6o) gives us ‘Hollywood’s big boom has gone bust’ It is here where we see “The actor and aerial cinematographer turned his hobby of flying drones into a profitable business in 2012 just as the streaming wars were taking off. For a decade, he was flying high above film sets, creating sleek aerial shots for movies and TV shows on Netflix, Amazon and Disney. Now he’s on the verge of becoming homeless – again. He was evicted from the Huntington Beach home he shared with his wife and two young children and now is being booted from the Las Vegas apartment they moved to because they could no longer afford to live in Southern California.” As I see it, it is a much simpler equation, even as we are given “the good times ground to a halt in May 2023, when Hollywood’s writers went on strike. The strikes lasted multiple months and marked the first time since the 1960s that both writers and actors joined forces – effectively shutting down Hollywood production.” You see, some people are blaming the strike, but the strike wasn’t the reason it is a interaction drive between cinematic analysts and greed driven studio bosses. Even as we see “with layoffs at many studios – most recently at Paramount. It had a second round of layoffs this week, as the storied movie company moves to cut 15% of its workforce ahead of a merger with the production company Skydance.” And none of it is the actual reason. Hollywood has decided to rely on mediocrity and the attached collection of yes nodders towards some numbers of utterly unreliability (as I personally see it). Lets take a step back to 1966, a new youngling in Hollywood came with an idea a science fiction tainted wild western called Star Trek. Lucille Ball from Desilu Productions was one of the driving forces on pushing the success of Star Trek. In the mean time the series is the longest and most successful series in history pushing 11 spin offs and 13 movies. At the end, the cancellation of Star Trek was proclaimed In 2011 “the ranked number four on the TV Guide Network special, 25 Biggest TV Blunders” and still Hollywood will not learn. Now we see other issues in 2005 a series named Threshold was created, it lasted for one season.

The TV series was really good (my personal view) and the actors including Carla Gugino, the youthful young sprout who played the ex of Dwayne Johnson in San Andreas, Brent Spiner who played the mad scientist in Independence Day, Charles S. Dutton known for many roles, Rudy being one of them, Peter Dinklage who shined in Death at a Funeral and the game of thrones. The TV series was drenched in achieved talent, however as the TV series didn’t get the desired ratings, the series were dropped. Star Trek wasn’t enough of a lesson for Hollywood. And this wasn’t the only lesson. Defying Gravity (2009), Firefly (2002), Doll House (2009) all series dropped for the mere reason that it wasn’t bringing in the cash from day zero. As I see it Hollywood hasn’t gone bust. The audience has stopped putting their faith in Hollywood productions. An entity that doesn’t seem to comprehend Science Fiction and Fantasy is the maker of imaginary worlds? 

We see a whole range of attached reasons, but the number one reason isn’t shown. The fact that advertisements aren’t of interest to people and that is the one thing that drives players like Netflix. TV stations are fed that advertisement is the drive of all entertainment business and to some extent this is partially true. The fact that the people after 50 years still look forward to some form of Star Trek is because it is a more surreal form of escapism and that image isn’t clear to Hollywood. I see it as a reason why Canada and Australia are growing players in this field. In Hollywood every dollar needs to be spend at least twice to become valid and all that time writers are massively underpaid. I see it as the number one reason why we will soon see an overshadowing of Hollywood by Dubai Media and the MBC group. And that is before Hollywood figures out that the people demand continuation of the story. The number one issue around Threshold, Defying Gravity, Firefly and Doll House. The are regarded as not ‘profitable’ but they are represented by millions of watchers who wonder what comes next and too many of these disappointments of cancelations are getting to them and now they look at places where there is continuation. 

My initial view is that someone needs to take a hard look at how ratings are measured, because I think that is the core of the issue. I refuse to believe that some cancelations are valid. Consider the series Lucifer, it was booted at season 3, taken over by Netflix who did 3 seasons more. Now we see “In 2021, Lucifer was the most-streamed original series in the U.S., with 18.34 billion minutes viewed”, so how is that not a success and it makes us wonder what drove the cancelation by Fox? The stream data contradicts the Fox statement that is was a “ratings-based decision”. I think that this is happening too much and as such I have doubts that there is a issue with how ratings are ‘found’ and those in that area together with some analysts are setting the stage for whatever they think that matters, but that is merely my view on the matter.

I see it that greed driven decisions by some are strangling others from fulfilling their view. Avatar (2009) made $2,923,706,026 and I get that, but is it better than Oppenheimer (2023) $975,594,978? As I see it Wall Street wannabe’s are tainting the field of artistic achievements and I get that revenue is part of the equation, but Hollywood was the place of dreams, it has now become a nightmare for many players. Why is that? 

Enjoy the weekend.

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October 31, 2024 · 18:39

A day of flags

Something crossed my path and it puzzled me for a moment. An article passed me by on the Khaleej Times and for a moment I was stumped. The article (at https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-sheikh-mohammed-calls-on-all-institutions-to-raise-flag-at-11am-on-november-1) gave me ‘Sheikh Mohammed calls on all institutions to raise flag at 11am on November 1’ where we see “As UAE celebrates Flag Day, the Dubai Ruler has called on all ministries and institutions to raise the flag at the same time, 11am on November 1.” So, what stumped me? The reason for it is quite natural. I however grew up in the Netherlands and there flag day is on June 22nd when the herring season starts. It amounts to a national herring eating day. For the Dutch it is a delicacy.

And with that in mind my first reaction was “The UAE doesn’t have herring” which for a (previous) Dutchman seems quite naturally. The setting or flag day is a national day in many countries and the UAE has plenty to be proud of. In Sweden it is celebrated on June 6th. That day in 1905 Sweden dissolved the union it had with Norway. On that day the Swedish flag became a reality.

In France it is celebrated on July 14th. This is due to the storming on the Bastille on July 14th 1789 which marked the beginning of the French Revolution. In the United Kingdom it has multiple meanings. 

As I see it, it differs per nation and they all have their own reasons. As such it seems to be an event of jubilee and tomorrow it is the United Arab Emirates that have reason to celebrate. We also get “The leader also invited “all sons of the nation to participate in this occasion.” Flag Day is an expression of love for the nation, loyalty to the flag, and “our renewed determination to keep the flag of our union flying high, expressing the pride, glory and dignity of the United Arab Emirates,”” Ever nation has reasons and the UAE also has its reason, proudly dipped in pride for its nation. Some might think ‘So what?’ But they would be missing the point. You see whether you are born there or it becomes your new nationality because you decided that the UAE is your new home. We should all have pride in the nation we embraced and celebrate the flag day we chose. As a simple question. Do you now the day of your flag day? As I see it, it doesn’t matter if you were born there. When you embrace your new grounds I believe that you should embrace the flag and your new national anthem. It doesn’t stop you from becoming a global citizen, but any global citizen is derived from a national sense of pride. That is perhaps debatable, but I believe that to be true. 

Have a lovely day.

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October 30, 2024 · 14:47

The greed driven protocols

There is a setting that I had forgotten about and I was reminded of this by the BBC (at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gzp7y8e7vo) in here we see the headline ‘JP Morgan sues customers over viral TikTok cheque fraud’. To help you with this setting I take you back to 1981. I was in the draught army (pun intended) and like any teenager on a short budget I sometimes ran out of budget in week 3. Now when you had a postal account there was a nice trick. You had a postal cheque which could be cashed in for $500, no questions asked. Now this goes against your balance no matter how slim it was, as such you always had access to $500. As such in times in the last week you cashed it in without having a good balance and you started the month with minus something and then the wage came in setting you in the plus. Is you plan it nicely you could spread that minus over two months setting you in the clear. It wasn’t a great way, but when the numbers are aligned against you it was a solution. The interest was really low in those days, so it would set you back less then $2. All this happened in 1981, 43 years ago. So now we get “US banking giant JP Morgan Chase, is suing customers who allegedly took advantage of a glitch by illegally withdrawing thousands of dollars from its ATMs. The “infinite money glitch”, as it became known on TikTok, allowed the bank’s customers to write a large cheque to themselves, deposit it and then withdraw the funds before the cheque bounced.” OK, this had a little setting that people rote cheques to themselves and withdrew it before the option crashed. Then we get “Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that JP Morgan Chase closed the loophole a few days after several videos telling people about the glitch went viral on social media.” Is it really? I used the $500 option in the Netherlands 43 years ago as such, how did the loophole get created in the first place? As I see it this is all about greed driven protocols, protocols the negate certain timestamps, and now JP Morgan is crying fowl? Yes, another pun intended. And If I can recollect this setting, so can others. Is it fraud? That is the question. You see fraud is states as “wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain”. The wrongful or criminal deception is key. Were people allowed to write a check to themselves? If that is legally allowed the fraud fails. There is a financial gain, yet if these people claim that they were going to pay it back the fraud is wobbly at best. In the ned it is for a judge to decide if the case can be made. Yet even as I accepted what I did in 1981, there was never a step of personal or financial gain. I merely ‘allowed’ my account to be over-drafted for no more than a month and the maximum amount ‘borrowed’ would have been $500 for the best part of a week. As such the fraud setting becomes debatable but it hangs on the setting if a cheque can be written to ones self. 

As for the amount we are given “The amount of money kept by the defendants in the four lawsuits totalled more than $660,000, according to JP Morgan Chase’s lawyers” as such I wonder what other protocols (or better stated policies) were ‘glitched’ to make for easy money making by the banks. The fact that they are now turned against them is to some extent hilarious. The simplest setting is that you cannot write yourself a cheque for any amount. One simple rule that could have stopped JP Morgan Chase ‘losing’ money as I see it.

I might be wrong on this as I am not a banker. I asked Francesco di Medici and he agrees, but he reeled at the idea of a piece of paper supporting $660,000 so there is that too.

Have a great day.

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October 29, 2024 · 15:28

Laughing Out Loud

Yup this happens too and in this case it was an article that Bloomberg showed its paying customers. I am not one of them. As such I am attaching the image that made me laugh.

I saw it about 8-10 hours ago and it had me rolling with laughter. So what gives? First the setting of ‘Consider Re-entering’ as I see it Barclays and other banks are strapped for capital and bleeding a client dry (service fees and commissions) is a tell tale story towards any bank trying to make a living. There is no consideration, there is merely the trap they put themselves in 10 years ago. As for the “capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets” is even more hilarious. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has options to consider HSBC, JP Morgan, Bank of America and the 5 largest banks in China. All stronger and more able than Barclays. There is also Credit Agricole and the Citigroup. All in the top 12, Barclays stands at 18. So there is the first part. In addition I can hand you Rothschild & Co. The one bank no one mentions. It’s value was around €18.1 billion a year ago, as such I reckon it is pushing well over €20 billion at present. Barclays has nowhere near that capital or those connections. I reckon that Rothschild can access around 20% more clients than Barclays can (a casual speculation by little old me). 

So why this action?
Well it started in 2012 when we were given “Barclays is fined for manipulating the benchmark Libor interest rate in 2012, after revelations stretching back to 2005” It’s CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan didn’t forget about that, did he? Then we get 2014 when Reuters gave us ‘Barclays sued by Saudi developer for $10 billion’, so how did that end? We got “A Saudi real estate company has sued Barclays for $10 billion (6.24 billion pounds), claiming the bank ceased pursuing lease payments due from the Saudi government on military complexes in the kingdom in order to obtain a lucrative banking license there” when we were given (source: Reuters) “The company, Jadawel International, a unit of London-based MBI International Holdings Inc., claims Barclays “hatched a fraudulent scheme” to secure the rare Saudi banking license, selling out Jadawel in the process, according to the lawsuit filed in New York state Supreme Court on Tuesday” One says potato and the other claims tomato. In the end as far as I can tell Barclays won the dismissal. It doesn’t make them innocent, but the claimant could not prove guilt (as far as I can tell). And last but not least only this year we were given that Barclay was one of the players in getting Andrea Orcel “derivatives linked to Commerzbank for the Italian lender in the weeks before Berlin sold a stake earlier this month, sources familiar with the matter said. Barclays and Bank of America subsequently helped Orcel to effectively expand UniCredit’s holding in Commerzbank to the current level of about 21 per cent, they said asking not to be named discussing the private information” now, this last bit does not seem to be illegal, but the stakes against Barclay (all over Europe) are increasingly high and now they hope that Saudi Arabia gives them a chunk of business before they are forced to hand over their bank to any of the upper 15 banks. I say good luck to them. Yes there is all kinds of banking issues I am not familiar with, but governments need to work with banks that are cleaner then clean and as such I am entertaining howls of deriving laughter if Barclay thinks they are that. The LIBOR scandal took care of that. 

And lets be clear Barclay didn’t (as far as I know) hand the statement “Mistakes were made in the past and we have sanitised our structures and people to meet the challenge that a customer the size of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brings”, nope, none of that. We were given “Barclay plc is considering re-entering Saudi Arabia as it looks to capitalise on the kingdom’s growing need to access capital markets”. I actually wonder if they would be allowed in the country at present. There are seemingly better viable candidates and that is before you consider Rothschild as a contender. 

I get it. I also tried to access Saudi Arabia as a partner (read: future owner) of my IP. I merely wanted 50 million, a Canadian passport and 2% of the revenue for 20 years. With my believe (a presented believe) that the idea would give them 6 billion annual and their investment to that would be 50 million (for happy old me). And this is about as decent as it gets. A mere 0.8% risk and that is at the time of the presentation. A mere trivial amount and I feel certain that this would have worked. There was one condition Microsoft was not allowed near it. Amazon would be OK, but Microsoft is a no go.

This is why I contacted Kingdom Holdings and Tencent Technology as well. They can drive the innovation I brought. As such I feel a stronger contender than Barclay ever could be (Yes, I am blowing my own horn).

So as I see it, re-entering a market when the others have seemingly had enough of you isn’t re-entering. It is running for the hills to avoid being taken over. But I am not a banking person, so what do I know.

Have a fun day.

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October 29, 2024 · 06:03

The telling signs

That is at times the question. What one sees is not seen by all, there is no blame or shame in this. We can’t be looking in all directions, the simplest of reasons is that life is in front of you and we tend to look at life (for most of the time). As such I saw two articles pass by, well one actually (it makes sense soon enough).

The first one was the New Arab (at https://www.newarab.com/news/saudi-arabia-starts-work-huge-gold-kaaba-style-structure) handing us ‘Saudi Arabia starts work on massive gold ‘Kaaba’ style structure despite criticism’, my first setting was the word criticism. The word comes through 5 times including the title and three times it gives us “amid criticism that it resembles the Kaaba holy site in Mecca”, which is incorrect. 

The Kaaba (as the pictures show me) is not an actual cube, I could be wrong as I have never been to Mecca for I am not a Muslim. The second setting is that the dimensions are off by a mile. This building will be 400 by 400 by 400 meters. I will hazard a guess that this structure could be seen from space, one of the few. The other part is that this would be a monumental achievement. As for the critique from social media, I let that be. I didn’t look into it and I reckon it will serve no purpose. The important setting for me (and initial worry) is seen with “The development will have retail, hospitality, leisure and office space facilities and is believed to be big enough to hold 20 Empire State Buildings in it when complete, Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) said.” You see, filling up 20 empire state building takes time and resources. That is beside the infrastructure needed. As my abacus dictates to me, that building alone would need to be fuelled and that takes at least a small nuclear reactor to do so. As I saw it there is an option if the outer walls have a second inner layer comprised of solar panels you will alleviate a lot of power requirements and even fuel more power to the city. I reckon someone looked at this at present, but it is the initial worry I see. That and getting water pumped to +400 meters. There are a few things, but the designers would have worked out these elements long before now. My mind is merely struggling with a building comprised of 64 million cubic metres. What is a fact is the massive achievements that Saudi engineers will make. A true world marvel. The previous achievement from that region was a near 5000 years ago (yes, they were the pyramids). That and the Neom structures will show the world that Saudi Arabia has made its match to anything else that was built on this planet.

I see a few other issues, but I will hold them. Not to sound stupid, but it might sound me anti-achievement and I refuse to be one of those negative people. 

I wonder how spacious it will be on the inside. You see we think in (mostly) western dimensions and from the last 10 years we have seen buildings with a different approach. As such are all floors 18 feet high? There is a lot not known and I to some extent fear knowing to much in advance, but I am still curious. The other thing I wonder about is the impact it will have. Not impact as a social need, but the houses around the Mukaab. Depending on the position of their house, the Mukaab could now shield it from the blazing sun for at least part of the day. I wonder what will happen to these places. For now, we will watch (in awe) and see over the next 5 years how that building comes together.  The other article comes later today.

Have a fun day

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October 23, 2024 · 06:14

The tightening belt

What I foresaw is now coming to pass in more than one way. ECNS China gives us ‘Saudi Arabia aims to attract up to 5 million Chinese tourists by 2030’ there was always a shift coming and as we see it, Saudi Arabia becomes more and more driven to see what the Chinese markets can deliver. We saw this last week in the Saudi Tourism Festival held in Beijing on Oct 17, 2024. We are given “Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the Saudi Tourism Authority Ahmed Al-Khateeb said that Saudi Arabia is China-ready and welcomes all Chinese travellers with increased connectivity, customised products and strategic partnerships.” Now some of you will respond with ‘so what?’ And that might be fair in one way. But this number represents a much larger issue. As I see it, one third is goal driven tourism. People will decide on Saudi Arabia as a destination for a job, or as a cheap tourism destination. Two third will go as tourist with optional goals, but these three million tourists will go to Saudi Arabia and not to their ‘normal’ destinations. That will show in diminished numbers all over Europe (France, England, Spain and Italy) and America. These people will also attract optional tourists who will change their initial destination. The other 2 million will optionally retrench their optional ‘cheap labor’ destination from Australia and places like the Netherlands, Belgium and the nordic countries. You will think that it does not matter, but consider all these coffee places that ‘allowed’ for these people, optionally in other areas too. They will come short of their usual numbers. These tourists also spend all they earn in that country. As such there will be a shift, an initial shift that seems small but could grow over time. These 5 million will spend their money somewhere else (in Saudi Arabia) and that facilitates to more, it always does. You might not think much of this, but the Saudi job market is booming. There are (allegedly) at present a little over 10,000 jobs outstanding. A fair deal are out reach of a lot of them, but consider this job “Digital Marketing Specialist. Average Salary: SAR 9,500-35,000 per month” and consider that they have the Beijing University of Technology and over a dozen more universities where these young crackers would like to see options in their first 2 years. They have just graduated University, they have spend almost every waking hour working on digital solutions like TikTok, broadcast experience and on the other hand we see places like Huawei making waves in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These two places will see an increase of Chinese workers with an option to fulfil their dream a lot faster, so yes, Saudi Arabia will become a swing location for these people. All options that are shutting doors on Europe, Australia and America. 

We are also given “the country is preparing to launch its winter season tourism attractions, which will provide a range of experiences filled with entertainment, luxury, adventure and natural beauty, running from October to May”
Now consider that Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and Sindalah now suddenly will have a grasp of a thousand more affordable workers, bringing both a digitally active workforce as well as language skills to their regions. Yes, the cheaper groups will also infuse the wealth group from China to their shores because these people will encounter others with their language skills. As such the people who depend on these rich tourists will endure a lessened impact as they will all want to go to the newest places in Saudi Arabia. I reckon that in the 5,000,000 people will be at least 500,000 people who are beyond well-off and they will go to Saudi Arabia in the space of 2026-2028 (at least) and that is a kick to the heads of economy in the aforementioned countries. The top 1% of wealthy Chinese who are making over $80,000 are expected to spend that money in Saudi Arabia. And I am referring to the people who would have spend their cash in London, Paris and Orlando. Merely these three places will see a drop of income in the next few years. So how much more is needed? You might think that the small setting of “France is the most visited country within Europe, attracting an impressive 81,411,000 foreign sightseers each year”, but that would not be entirely correct. It includes all nations, including Europeans and a bunch of them will be attracted to Saudi luxury as well and consider that 1% is still 814,110, even if they merely lose 1%, that amounts to quite the drain on revenue and that is in part already heading towards Saudi Arabia. Already we are seeing messages on Free tourist visas, the one element that partially blocks choices is in the process of being removed. And all this is piling up against Europe and America. All whilst we were given ‘Tourism trips by residents of EU in 2023 up close to 6% y/y’ we ignore the drop that a mere 1% drop wouldn’t be much, but these tourists have beckoned billions in investments all over Europe and now I expect to see the Chinese drop as well as the ‘local’ tourists now dialling Saudi Arabia for their upcoming destination. Add to that whatever business bookings we see and you know these sales types, how they like to be known to go to new and luxurious destinations, the punch packing trips all over Saudi Arabia will be handing several body blows to Europe (America as well). We might merely see that the effort is on 5,000,000 Chinese tourists. But the overall impact will be a lot higher. That is the one part that everyone forgets about. The overly large population of tourists can only spend their money once or perhaps twice a year and the appeal of Saudi Arabia is overwhelming with at least three locations appealing to a lot of tourists. Add to this Riyadh and the impact of Saudi tourism will be felt in most of the tourist places of Europe and America. I reckon that if Disney and Universal sets a theme park in these places the damage will be near complete. Not a mere 2-3 years. But an impact over the next decade at least. Whatever we think of these parks in Orlando, they are overpacked and soon there will be an alternative of the same making. We see (at present) “With over 58 million annual tourist visits, Disney World averages approximately 159,000 visitors per day across all its parks” as well as “In 2023, 10 million tourists visited Islands of Adventure, a decrease of 9%” and consider that these two places could lose close to 15% more, people that have had enough of these massive queues and they want an alternative. Well Warner Brothers is already seeing an increasing populous enjoying Abu Dhabi and I reckon that these are all people contemplating Saudi Arabia as an optional destination.

Tourist destinations in Europe and America will see the need to tighten their belts. And this is not new. I floated the idea on September 27th 2023 in ‘As the belt tightens’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/09/27/as-the-belt-tightens/) so this is not news to me. I saw it coming a mile away (well, actually a year ago), and that is all before the glamour of Vision 2030 hits the tourists on the retina. I think I made my case 2 times over and the impact should be seen all over Europe in the time 2026-2028, after that? That depends how Saudi Arabia plays it cards. I made one other prediction (presumption) on what would be needed and that could put Europe and America in a bind, they either invest and make ready for 2025 or they might lose a lot more.

Have a great day and contemplate the view from the Aedas ski resort. Can America match that view? Now consider that Saudi Arabia could simultaneous hit 5-10 tourist attractions at the same time in 2026.

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October 21, 2024 · 11:34

What is the real deal?

That is the question I have. I am not saying that I have ‘evidence’ but you can judge the information I will hand you now. Early yesterday morning I stumbled upon ‘Saudi Arabia ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to end Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin’ where we are given (at https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/saudi-arabia-comfortable-venue-for-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin/article68773948.ece) “Saudi Arabia will be a ‘comfortable’ venue for talks to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Saturday (October 19, 2024).” With the ‘supporting’ text ““I repeat once again: we are ready to return. We didn’t interrupt the negotiations. I want to remind you: it was the Ukrainian side that said that it would not continue negotiations with Russia. First. Second. A decree of the President of Ukraine has been issued prohibiting negotiations with us,” said President Putin accusing Ukraine of preventing a solution from emerging.” To be honest, I do not put much faith in the words of Vladimir Putin, as I see it, he is nothing more than a mass murderer of Women, children, aid workers and more. The bombing of the Ukraine might be one of the most disgusting acts against a people since long before the Crusades. An act that makes the acts of Genghis Khan sound like a simple sniffle. 

Then we get the Kyiv Independent (at https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-has-lost-672-850-troops-since-feb-24-2022/) handing us ‘General Staff: Russia has lost 672,850 troops since Feb. 24, 2022’, we knew that the Russians were losing a lot of people and we see this below

Apart from the 678,520 soldiers who went the way of the dodo, they also lost 26987 vehicles, 9047 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters, 17,050 drones and a submarine and a few other items. Beside this Russia seems to be toting North Korean hardware and troops. The once mighty Russia is now relying on North Korean troops and weapons. As I personally see it Russia is on the threshold of defeat. The once mighty country that had the west shaking in its boots is now relying on a nation Russia once looked down on is sending troops and hardware. Yes, President Putin is looking for a comfortable place to talk about any solution that sees Russia in an alternative route towards non-defeat. The latter part is not really an option, but he might want to keep the hope up. I personally see that there is another side. China sees the war as a hindrance and they like Saudi Arabia as a winner in any political solution at present. But that is merely my view on the matter. 

Russia needs a scapegoat in all matters and as President Putin made sure all his adversaries have  committed suicide out of windows. He is now left massively out of options and the Saudi setting is now his (presumably) only way out. At this point he might get away with a working military in about a decade as it will take time to replenish 9000 tanks, 369 aircrafts, 329 helicopters and a submarine, preferably in a 21st century setting. As such the Russian steel mills will need to be repurposed and it can afford nothing more until at least 2030. And that is all presuming that Russia wants a working solution at this point, it will cost them dearly as well as the Russian ‘blemish’ that they lost to a global army in 20th position, that is the defeat and larger political loss they face. With the setting in Saudi Arabia he could possibly avert an expulsion from BRICS. At present China and India are considering the gains they make on the global stage if Russia becomes isolated. China gains defence contracts all over the world, India will get several boons all over the commercial field and that is the premise that Russia is now looking at. 

As such the Saudi premise works for Russia, but only if they play nice. Any act that is seen negatively by the Ukraine will be taken harshly and if the Ukraine walks out of these talks Russia’s goose will be cooked, peppered and marinated. As such I have the question. What is the real deal here? I have faith that Saudi Arabia sees this as an opportunity, as does China. But in this instance it depends on what game President Putin will be playing. Not only does he know that he is with his back to the wall, will he embrace the small options of a massively greater loss is heading his way? I cannot tell, because that requires an insight of a mass murdering mind I do not have.

Have a great day wherever you are.

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October 19, 2024 · 17:26

Kettle, pot and colouring

Yup, that is the setting for today. I saw the news yesterday or the day before and it angered me. The article (at https://cpj.org/2024/10/saudi-arabia-sentences-cartoonist-mohammed-al-ghamdi-to-23-years/) from the CPJ (committee to protect journalists) is as misguided as it is hypocritical. In the first instance I do not know Mohammed al-Ghamdi, I never saw his cartoons or red anything from him. As far as I am concerned as long as the CPJ does not hold its western journalists and editors up to any kind of standard, it needs to shut up. Yesterday I touched on the Politico article regarding Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud and it opened up some issues for me. There is more, the media neglects the interesting ‘good’ Saudi Arabia does and trivialises the harm that Saudi Arabia gets from Houthi terrorists. As such I say that the CPJ needs to shut up.

We are given that “a Saudi cartoonist for the Qatar-based Lusail newspaper, who was sentenced on an undisclosed date in 2024 to 23 years in prison on charges that his cartoons were sympathetic to Qatar and insulted the Saudi government” Saudi Arabia has laws, they might not be the laws the west heralds, but this is a Saudi event. I might not agree, but if I am in Saudi Arabia I would have to adhere to Saudi Laws and there is the chance that my articles fall in bad waters with Saudi Arabia. I do not know as I am not privy to those laws. As far as I know I never known and intentionally insulted anyone in the Saudi government (I might be wrong in this).

Countries have laws, the west (Commonwealth and Europe) for the most on the issue of freedom of speech and as such I tend to use that freedom of speech, yet in that instance I try to maintain a civil tongue. And when Charlie Hedbo was killed, I also supported France, I stood at a vigil in Sydney. I was not aware to the stage that drove someone to kill Charlie Hedbo, but I was in agreement that we had to protest this because Charlie Hedbo was not anti-Muslim. He drew on several occasions images that would have offended the church (the Vatican), as such he was equally ‘diplomatic’ on all faiths. 

Yet this is not about Charlie Hedbo, this is about the double standard the CPJ uses and until they hold western media to a serious level of account, they need to put up or shut up. 

This is pretty much it. I did not check some of the claims made and I am not saying these claims weren’t true. We get “It is time to break this longstanding pattern of imprisoning journalists. Saudi authorities must release al-Ghamdi and drop all charges against him” and I am not opposing this, but I find it interesting that numbers and reasons for imprisonment aren’t given. It this is about less then 5 journalists, it seems a trivial matter (compared to Turkey and a few other places). And lets not forget these Saudi Laws are all documented and as such these ‘journalists’ (optionally a mere one cartoonist) might have decided to leave the country, was that done? 

The CPJ gives us that 50 Journalists were killed in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 2024. So, where is the stink on these 50 journalists? Oh, and why is it “Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and why do we not see the segregation between “West Bank and the Gaza Strip” and “Israel”? It was a simple setting, but the CPJ seems to use a simplistic brush for that. And between 2018 and 2024 we see merely one seemingly killed and I raised plenty of articles between 2018 and 2024 shedding doubt on that setting. Another article gives us that 10 people were imprisoned all whilst the 2023 numbers have a top 10 (Saudi Arabia wasn’t there) and the top is China with 44 imprisoned, Russia with 22, Iran with 17, and Turkey with 13 imprisoned. Yet in all of these cases, we see an absence of reasons and there is the issue. The (western) press has in the last 10 years lost pretty much all credibility, as such a reason for imprisonment is required. I have an issue with the CPJ because a population with less credibility than a drug pusher in a school yard has several issues and I do not think the CPJ is in a position to demand any kind of charge drop until the status quo of journalists is re-established with a level of credibility that most of us find acceptable. The chase for digital dollars in the last decade pretty much diminished their right for a ‘protected’ status. 

People might not like my view on the matter, but that is my preview on the matter. Perhaps the CPJ would like to rewrite the article in something more palatable?

Have a great Saturday.

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October 18, 2024 · 10:17

An interesting twist

There is an interesting  twist on the premise of timing happening. It is given to us by Politico. The headline ‘Khashoggi death: Saudi ambassador reveals new details’ and I have more than one reason. We read the statement by Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud. I would like to add that I presented ‘evidence’ (of a sort) on July 4th 2017 (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2019/07/04/demanding-dismissal/) with ‘Demanding Dismissal’. And after that a little more on the 10th of September in ‘Squid rings of theatrics’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2020/09/10/squid-rings-of-theatrics/) it is nice that others are catching on and I do not blame Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud on this, but the media? Yes, the media is pricing itself out of the game really fast now. The article gives us “Speaking to POLITICO’s Power Play podcast, Ambassador Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud rejected the claim, insisting that the Saudi royal family continues to oppose the version of events backed by the U.S. as well as the U.K. And he disclosed that those the regime claims were responsible are still alive — casting rare light on the fate of the individuals blamed for the assassination”. Yet here he forgets one player. The United Nations and in particular Agnes Calamard (aka Eggy Calamari), I still have the UN document online where close to a dozen pieces on debate come into play. We also get “A detailed, declassified 2021 CIA report concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had approved the operation during which Khashoggi was brutally murdered and dismembered, possibly after an attempt to kidnap him in the consulate where he had gone to pick up documents for his wedding to his Turkish fiancée” showing us the larger folly (read: failure of the CIA) to dig into the truth. Don’t get me wrong, I was not part on any of this, as such I am a bystander at best, but I can read and illuminate the stupidity of others is a part time hobby of me, as such I found 5 items in the first hour giving us doubt on the entire issue and what is more important, the media neglected actions on ANY of this. More important they were speculatively deciding to fuel this fire to gain digital dollars for their presumptuous aiding the United Nations, as well as other players having the need to bash Saudi Arabia.

One hour that a simple man like me needed and I handed everyone the goods on what I found and where I found it (except the ‘claimed’ evidence that he was on Bora Bora with a mistress, because there was no evidence on this claim). 

Then we get to “Speaking to host Anne McElvoy, the kingdom’s top diplomat in London described the death and dismemberment of Khashoggi as “an awful crime — a stain on our country, not just the government but every Saudi out there,” while firmly denying any complicity by the powerful Saudi monarch.” My issue on this is ‘Where are the body parts?’ I saw the image that the Daily Mail giving us (I believe it was the Daily Mail) an image of some random person holding a trash-bag, which could have been any trash. That paper lined itself with protection stating somewhere there ‘could have been’ and/or ‘we suspect’ all tidied up. I personally believe that here Prince Khalid bin Bandar al Saud was wrong. You see, this is not a stain on Saudi Arabia, but a stain on the media. To the need of (what I expect to be) the drive for digital dollars the media made themselves the culprit, losing whatever credibility they thought they had.

And for me it is a nice twist on this all. You see I presented these facts going back more than 5 years and in the meantime the media, as well as (wannabe) writers Bradley Hope and Justin Scheck who gave us the fictional story ‘Blood and Oil’ they all ran the money mill to stamp out their revenue using Saudi Arabia as the source of their income. 

The nice twist is that these western lies are now pointing in another direction, is it an option? I think it dies, but the likelihood that Israel did this is remote at best. Who else? Well I have some ideas on this but they are highly speculative and completely absent of evidence. I’ll let the media dig their own hold deeper in this.

But this twist that Politico handed me is putting a smile on my face. On this rainy Friday 5 years of looking into the matter is showing a new sign of life and that is not the best part of this. What was once ‘massive’ evidence can now be proclaimed as useless. You see, none of these reports did a forensic investigation into the tapes of Khashoggi’s ‘interrogation’ the reports give us that no one listened to the entire tape. There is no forensic evidence on the tape and that has been cleverly ‘hidden’ in the full texts. The one part that could have made the Khashoggi case a real case was ignored by the Media, the CIA and the United Nations. 

So how do you like your kippers? With or without aioli?

Have a great day.

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October 16, 2024 · 22:46

The Squeezing hand

The Arab News had an interesting piece two days ago. It starts with ‘Iran at a crossroads over support for Hezbollah’ and it can be found (at https://arab.news/9bh3s). The story comes from Dr. Majid Rafizadeh and he talks an interesting talk (you know how these Harvard types tend to be). We get to see “The ongoing conflict places Tehran in a situation in which its strategic options appear limited, forcing its leaders to weigh them up carefully.” Where we are also given “Hezbollah, which has long been regarded as a proxy force of Iran, traditionally serves the purpose of advancing Iranian interests by exerting pressure on regional adversaries such as Israel. However, recent events have reversed this dynamic. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in a position whereby it must actively protect Hezbollah to ensure the survival of its ally and the preservation of its regional strategy.” We can from this gain the insight that the actions from Israel has met its goals. This is meant plural as we see in the first that they eradicated the top of Hezbollah and as such a whole new cadre of Hezbollah need to be interned and trained to keep the money streams going, as well as the hardware they require. And here lies the second tier of a new challenge. Iran will need a whole range of ‘military advisors’ in that region and that gives its own sides of problems (as I personally see it). The second tier becomes that the initial ‘brotherly’ setting towards Hamas is backfiring. So either Hamas commits to Hezbollah as well, or they become a lot more isolated. Yet the stage that is given through “There is little doubt that Iran will continue attempting to safeguard Hezbollah, as the group represents a cornerstone of Iran’s regional influence” As Israel pounds Lebanon the options for Hezbollah decrease, by a fair bit. An expression that comes to mind is “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze”, this is not merely the act of squeezing, but it reflects on the fruit as well. If you have a fruit half the size the squeeze is no longer worth it and that is the part that Iran faces in this year and the next. As Hezbollah is dramatically downsized by Israel, Iran loses more and more regional influence and if Israel hits oil targets the stage will soon collapse. Yes, I saw all kinds of news that Israel stated that they will limit the attack to military targets and here is the little loophole. Oil is a valid military target as Iranian oil (a slight speculation) fuels all kinds of terrorist needs. 

And then we see the immense failure of America (CIA), we are given “Hezbollah holds immense strategic value for the Iranian government. From a military standpoint, the group is viewed as a formidable force capable of engaging Israel and other adversaries in the region. The strategic importance of Hezbollah lies in its ability to wage asymmetric warfare, which allows Iran to challenge its enemies indirectly while avoiding the consequences of direct military engagement. For Iran, Hezbollah represents a crucial tool for maintaining its influence and shaping regional outcomes in a manner that serves its interests” For over a decade a clear strategy against Hezbollah was required, but the CIA and other intelligence machines fell short. So are they really out there aiding Israel, or are they aiding the setting of prolonged instability? I made this accusation a few years ago and I am seemingly proven correct again and again. 

The article ends with “the Iranian government is once again at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of protecting its non-state ally, Hezbollah. Drawing on its past experiences, Iran is likely to pursue a similar approach to the one it adopted during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and the south Lebanon conflict. This strategy allows Iran to maintain its influence in the region, while avoiding the disastrous consequences of a direct conflict with Israel and its Western allies” I can see this side and whilst I do not agree on this stance coming, I can clearly see that it will a likely output. To thwart this setting and steer the Arabian peninsula towards a larger shaped stability, Israel would gain a lot by pounding Hezbollah back to the stone age (as expressions go). So in the line of “Always know if the juice is worth the squeeze” there are two sides deciding this. Make the fruit smaller and weaken the squeezing hand. These two settings will end the ‘reign’ of Iran over Hezbollah and that is what is needed. Iran is playing a dangerous game going all the way back to June 2023. The attack of 7 October 2023 took time, there were training flights, there were preparations and Iran was the assisting hand since before day one. That is the side that the media ignores, that is the side that was in the open and the allies (say friends) of Israel never saw this coming? The writer (Dr. Majid Rafizadeh) brings a good case I fully agree with him, yet my (non-informed) side has issues. You see Iran has been doing this for at least 18 years and I think that more people should be in the know on this. I wonder how many people are ‘dissuading’ people due to the crude oil loophole I discussed in ‘Is it merely political?’ on October 6th (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2024/10/06/is-it-merely-political/) I wonder how many stakeholders get fed of that premise? I do not know, but the need for greed and ‘hand outs’ make this a much bigger issue than you think and that is not good. Because it allows Iran to play the same dangerous game for much too long. Agree or disagree as you see fit, but ask your self the question. ‘How is Iran playing this game for this long and the media isn’t up to speed?’ It is nice to blame the media, but the fact that they didn’t report on many occasions makes their hands tainted as I see it, and they also refrained to expose several stake holders in the process. How does that hit you?

And a mere 50 minutes ago we see the the Washington Post give us: ’Israel strikes southern Beirut; U.S. demands restraint in Lebanon, aid for Gaza’, I wonder what they didn’t report on, because that part needs to be exposed as well. The added text “Separately, the administration gave Israel a month to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, warning it could otherwise take punitive steps, including withholding military aid”, the Times of Israel gives us IDF data shows over 26,000 rockets fired at Israel. My small question becomes “What was the cost of that?” If a rocket costs a mere $100,000, than Hamas kept a little over 2.6 billion out of the mouths of Palestinians and that is merely 2023. As such Hezbollah also fired missiles, The group reportedly has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges between 160 and 300 kilometres, What were those costs? As such how could Iran pay for it all? Both Hamas and Hezbollah did not pay top dollar for that, so what was the hand out by Iran? In 1976 we got the phrase “Follow the money”, it comes from the movie ‘All the presidents men’, as I see it Bob Woodward really screwed the media over with that one (me, laughing out loud), oh, and he was involved with the Washington Post for some time. So who trailed the Iranian money?

Have a great day.

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