Category Archives: Military

September 19, 2023 · 03:04

The joy of a sleepless night

It all started a few hours ago. The neanderthal hate mail came in regards to the previous article. I was delusional, this never happens. If you receive hate mail, you probably have heard it before. I do not care, but I think it is nice to tell their mommies just how stupid Junior is, as such here goes.

The military have been stupid, very stupid. We see this shown Reuters (the New York Times is behind a paywall). The story (at https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man-suspected-leaking-secret-us-documents-appear-court-2023-04-14/) gives us ‘Airman suspected of leaking secret US documents hit with federal charges’ where we see “Jack Douglas Teixeira of North Dighton, Massachusetts, the U.S. Air National Guard accused of leaking top secret military intelligence records online was charged on Friday with unlawfully copying and transmitting classified material.” In addition to this, The BC gives more, gives links to gamers and a service named Discord, which has 150,000,000 active users. As such the military link is proven. What is unknown is what other stupid things he has been doing. For that we need to await the full investigation of the FBI. Although it is increasingly likely that the NSA will wield the national security flag. I would totally get that. 

Then the second setting the gaming part. For that we go to Kaspersky. They give us (at https://usa.kaspersky.com/resource-center/threats/coronavirus-gaming-scams) a rather nasty part with warnings. The important ones are:

  1. Only use official websites for any purchases related to the game.
  2. Use a strong password for the game login.
  3. Never click on any links asking you to reconfirm your password.

There is a lot more, but if a gamer (especially one in the military) has ignored 2 of these, the damage is likely done. There will be one stupid person in any airbase (the US does not get to be that lucky) as such there are phishing and data capturing dangers in most of the 59 of them. The Army has over 300 of them. You still think I was kidding? As I see it Teixeira is merely the tip of that iceberg. I have no idea what the danger is with the Marines, but it is likely very low, not as low as the navy, but it is still better than the other two. That is the realistic danger that the US faces and if Russians were watching Discord the US has a massive problem. You see, it is not only what the US (or NATO) knew, it is what they didn’t know that will become the achilles heel. That is two of the settings right out here in the open and the Teixeira might seem new, but the New York Times implied that this had been going on for a lot longer, as such the damage is real. 

As far as I am concerned when Teixeira is thrown in prison, they can cover the door with concrete and forget about him. The idea to put classified materials online to look cool is even more stupid to fall for a Russian 17 year old honey trap. With the honey trap we get it, hormones take over, but to look cool? I am at a loss what that man ever did in a uniform and even less why it took so long to find the link. 

But it wasn’t merely about the person Teixeira, it was about the setting for a movie or TV episode. You see, phishing has been going on for decades and the lack of Common Cyber Sense (especially in the military) was covered by me over the last few years. I have articles that go back to at least April 2022. So this is more than a loaded canon, this is the making of more (in what direction remains open and not discussed). It has all the makings of the nightmare scenario. You see you want your data to be safe whilst not using a password, or perhaps one of the routers at the pentagon which had been implied (by an anonymous source) to have been Cisco123 for the longest of times. So how is that security going? It is a sliding scale from non existent to a revolving door for anyone that wanted to read some. It might be my point of view, but the released facts seem to fit the profiles I set.

In addition, for some weird reason, I seem to dream up all kinds of advertisements. One was for AA, where I used the phrase (with a nice animated bottle) “It is fine to have a drink. Make sure the drink does not consume you” I also got a girl to pose partially undressed, dancing is a slutty outfit, in a hospital bed and one more. You do not see her ‘details’ as I used a very interesting way to filter the view. The bottle has a label “Cemetery premium 45%”

The second add was about healthcare, I will spare you the details, they are not important. The weird part is that my mind designed both of them in mere minutes. I still need some things (like software) to get it done, but it is a weird setting. Especially as I never had any real intent to go into filming. Ah well, another mess to overlook I reckon.

And how do these two relate? They do not, but consider all the gaming ads you see on mobiles and tablets. Do you know the sources? Do you know what is collected? You see the FBI gives us that in 2022 $10,300,000,000 was lost due to scams and I reckon that number is low. Too many are ashamed to admit that they have been made the fool. As such all elements I mentioned yesterday were covered and anyone who had read up on the subject would know this. 

So enjoy Monday and consider how safe your data and details are. 

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August 20, 2023 · 22:20

Look back in anger

We all face moments when we sort of lose it. I had that yesterday when I saw an article by the CBC. I learned a long time ago that I should not write from a setting of anger (it never ends well for the writer), so I parked the article until now and now is the time. I am still angry, but a lot less so, as such I feel certain I can give the little bastard tit-for-tat.

The article (at https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-us-cluster-bombs-1.6940961) gives us ‘U.S. provided Ukraine with cluster bombs to fight Russia. Survivors say they should never be used’ as a sentiment I cannot disagree, yet in this case Nick Logan (the bastard in question) is giving us a very one-sided non-informing setting. One view given to us is “Russian use has been extensive while Ukrainian use has been more limited. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are signatories of the of the 2008 convention limiting the use of cluster munitions”, and that is not all.

Another source gives us “Although the Russian side denies accusations of using cluster munitions in residential areas, international and non-governmental organisations have reported such attacks. By the beginning of April, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies were reporting cluster munition shelling in Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Donetsk, Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. By July 1, Cluster Munition Coalition reports shelling in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson and Chernihiv regions. Testimony from independent weapons experts confirmed that a number of cluster rounds were dropped on residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.” This comes as an amalgamation of sources which includes the Wall Street Journal, BBC News, the Guardian and the Monitor. As such, why is (what I regard to be a little shit like) Nick Logan diminishing the actions by Russia and mentioning Russia 16 times, but extremely often as a ‘victim’ all whilst Russia demolished most of the Ukraine, including Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson and Chernihiv regions and pretty much all of these regions whilst utilising cluster munition. Why is the article by Nick Logan falling short there? Russia is getting what it has served the citizens of Ukraine and that is the first thing that Nick Logan should have reported on. I get the sentiment that cluster munitions are horrible. War is horrible, yet the Ukraine did not start this and having someone making nice with Russia to THIS degree has no business being a reporter for CBC or a reporter for any Commonwealth nation for that matter. So when I look back in anger, I look towards the facilitation of a terrorist state by too many media sources. For that matter, how many corporations are still doing business with Russia? How many are Canadian (or Commonwealth for that matter) and how much longer will we allow people like Nick Logan making BS reports whilst facilitating for some terrorist state? According to several sources (see above) the Russians started using cluster munition in 2014. It was in July 2023 when we got told “John Kirby confirmed later on Thursday that Ukrainians forces have begun using the munitions.” That is almost 9 years later, but the CBC did not give us that, did they? They merely gave us “Police look at fragments of Russian rockets, including cluster rounds, that hit the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Dec. 3, 2022. In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia had a ‘sufficient stockpile’ of cluster munitions, warning it ‘reserves the right to take reciprocal action’ if Ukraine uses the controversial weapons provided by the U.S.” So, how deceptive was that part? How much reporting do we see that Russia used these cluster munitions from 2014 onwards? 

As such the next part is for Brodie Fenlon (editor of CBC). Brodie you have some fixing to do. This level of reporting is unacceptable. I expected the CBC to be better than this and it is up to you to fix this, no one else. It was allowed on your watch, you get to fix your watch (and your watchdogs). A massive injustice was done to the Ukraine and to your readers by allowing this hatchet job to become mainstream news. 

I think I got the anger out of my system, after I let it wind down a little. I let you decide to see if I was wrong or not. 

Enjoy the last day of the weekend.

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August 18, 2023 · 01:04

Optical versus optional

There is a fine setting between genius and insane and I know it well. I am both one and the other. I have had my settings of genius and I have had my settings of insanity. And I will be honest enough to state that they aren’t in equal measure. So, this all started yesterday as I was writing about the strike and an image passed by.

I was looking at it and I suddenly realised an idea I had a very long time ago. Even as the navies modernised, they upgraded and so forth. Yet the events we recently saw made me realise that the Russians have been cutting corners and I have no doubt the nay faced the same corner cuttings. 

As such there is every chance that the new weapon system I thought through (based on the M142 HIMARS) might become a stealth solution towards letting Russians enjoy the views (like the bottom of a sea). 

I still believe that a prep event is needed and if it works the Ukrainians will have an option to sink the Russian fleet. Of course Lockheed Martin would have to make adjustments to their M31 GMLRS, but that might merely be the smallest part in the equation. Another prep is required and I will not write it here (no reason to tell the Russians where they failed), another part is that the target needs to be within 12 nautical miles, but that is a concern that brighter people than me have to address. All what I know is that if the prep part works the Russian fleet is obsolete and even if the idea is regarded as bad, it might make for a nice storyline in a movie, but that is for after the strikes are settled. As far as I can tell, this makes this Lawlordtobe – DARPA now 3-0. Not a bad way to go into Friday right before the weekend. The question becomes is it about to become an optical field because I was delusional? So is this a concept for Hollywood, Canadian Hollywood, or will it go to DARPA and Lockheed? I honestly do not know, as such it is Tim e for one Stefanie Tompkins (in Ballston, Arlington, Virginia) to wake up and consider what I saw and they might have overlooked.

I will let DARPA decide on that one, no reason to lose sleep over that part of the equation. So time for me to snore like a sawmill. 

Have a nice day, Friday is upon me and almost upon all of you to.

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August 2, 2023 · 19:41

My presumption is real

This article goes over several parts, parts you might agree with and parts you will not agree with. That is fair! You see several parts are set to presumption, which is still better than speculation. The difference is seen in the meaning. Presumption is an idea that is taken to be true on the basis of probability. There is more than probability in my case. I have worked in IT since 1983, as such I have been around (at least twice). Speculation is the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence. And both are important because I am talking from the past, which is not always seen or accepted as evidence. This is fair, and this is why people might disagree and I get it, never take anything for granted, not Ven when I say it. I love the expression from NCIS in this case ‘Trust but verify’ Gibbs was right, always verify what you learn. It is the only real way to move forward.

So this all started yesterday with an article. The article (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66118831) gives us ‘Gallium and germanium: What China’s new move in microchip war means for world’, they say it is 8 hours old, but I saw the article a little over 25 hours ago, so not sure what changed. The setting is “Under the new controls, special licences are needed to export gallium and germanium from the world’s second largest economy. The materials are used to produce chips and have military applications. The curbs come after Washington made efforts to limit Beijing’s access to advanced microprocessor technology.” You can turn and twist this to your heart content, but the setting is inaccurate and largely incorrect. Not what you read, that is fine. But there is a whole mess that precedes this and to see this we need to go back to the 90’s. You see, the IT world saw hoe the arms race was going and how military contractors were filling their pockets and the IT world took a page from that stage and started its IT Armistice race. I was caught up in it as well. A 386, a 486, a 486DX2, the Pentium, the Pentium 2, the Pentium-450, the Pentium2, as such between 1993 and 2002 I had wasted thousands on 7 systems, 7 systems in 10 years and I had enough. You see for the most the Pentium2 was enough to do 90% of everything I did, except gaming. Then I switched to consoles and saved myself thousands more. As such I avoided to the largest extend the graphic card war which might seem small but high end gaming needs a $1200 card, my PS5 was less then a thousand dollars on day one. In this Microsoft also pushed the borders, making us upgrade again and again. Oh, they played their cards cautiously and they played it well. Yet consider “Vista alone had 50 million lines of code, 10 million lines more than its successor, Windows 7. Because of the excessive amount of bloat and code, it was very slow on devices at the time, even on the latest and greatest hardware of 2007. This meant that it was more expensive to buy a machine that ran Vista properly.” Between Windows XP and Windows 7 we had the Vista nightmare and it cost too many too much. Yet weirdly enough with a little effort (Suse Linux at $99) you had an equal if not much better option, it would work on most Pentium2 systems like lightning. You could download it for free but for that money you got the discs and a DVD, the DVD had all the discs which included Linux and a truckload of programs, even open office I believe. If not it was easily downloaded. A linux lookalike version of Microsoft office that was free. It had an SQL database and so much more, even a nice collection of games, but they were not high resolution games. Fo that you needed a console and you saved thousands. It is this armistice race. We went though thousands of processors and that is what counts, because that drained the Gallium and Germanium we had and now China is one of the few that has it now. You see, we might act against China, but Gallium is found in Japan, South Korea, and Russia as well. China has however 90% at present. That does not mean there isn’t more, but finding it is not easy. Germanium is also found in Canada, Finland, Russia and the United States. China has about 60% and that is where we see the odd duck out (on your left). And is it not interesting that the second material is not mentioned that it is also found in Canada and the US? In this greed was again a much larger stage to this. The IT Armistice race dwindled whatever the west had and now China and Russia seem to have the upper hand. Still the larger stage is not merely who has it, but it becomes who can find it better, because that is where this is heading. I get it, we all need the latest PC (or MAC) but ask yourself, what allows you to do what you need to do? That is the question that IT providers like Dell and HP were eager to avoid at all cost as it impacted their bottom dollar. They will make the ‘party line’ To enjoy the best of Windows (whatever version) you are best off having a (the latest chip). That is what caused a large part of the drain and I was every bit as guilty. By the time I figured out what was going on I my bank account had about $22,000 less (11 systems with 2 still in use). You can scream whatever you want on how I could ‘save’ some dollars, but the truth is that we all enjoyed that feeling of the latest system, but it came at a price. So when we now see “a Pentagon spokesperson said the US had reserves of germanium but no stockpile of gallium” and why is that? It it is such a crucial element, why is there no stockpile? That is an easy answer, but no answer will be forthcoming. A race for supremacy, all whilst at least two racers are no longer able to keep up and that race is about to turn nasty for at least one of them. The Commonwealth might rely on Australia, but until the deposits are found the UK is in a tight spot. As I personally see it we might have to take a step back and see how else we can get the job done. As such I am phrasing an extremely speculative question. French chemist Paul-Émile Lecoq de Boisbaudran found in 1875 the substance we now know to be gallium, it is in group 13 of the periodic table and is similar to the other metals of the group (aluminium, indium, and thallium. My question becomes Is there another solution that employs indium or thallium? I honestly have no idea, I do not even know where these two are found and whether they can do what Gallium does. Also there is Rhodium, can it (or a combination) get the job done? I have no idea, but it seems to me that the head-banging against a wall we raised ourselves is massively stupid to say the least and there is every chance that there is a chemist and an electronic engineer who will laugh at my suggestion, which is fair enough. To see this we need to look at 1965 when Friedrich Schächter created a ballpoint that works in space as it is a pressurised ink solution. In in 1967 it was reported that NASA purchased approximately 400 pens for $2.95 a piece, all whilst Bic pens were $0.29 in those days. Russia decided to solve it by using a pencil, which costed $0.39 at the time. So we can caress our ego’s or find another solution.  And this is merely one of many issues. So will you embrace someone who adds 10 million lines of code, or seek whatever else is out there? I get it, the other solution will not work for everyone, but over 2 billion people use a PC out there. I am willing to bet the bank that at least 25% could do with a cheaper solution. There are (according to some) an estimated 300 million computers in production annually. I feel certain that at least a third doesn’t need to be bought and if Microsoft woke up and recreated Windows XP for households and adds a decent office version to it several other gallium issues could suddenly be less stringent. In 2018 970 units of Gallium were used. In 2022 it was almost 3500 units (the chart did not clearly give me what the units were). Why is that? I know that PC output is not over 300% in 2022. There might be other uses as well, but I would not know that, but the more I see the more questions I end up with and the BBC (or its article) isn’t giving me the goods. There was no mention of Canada or the US in it, was there?

It is time for plenty of people to wake up, I for one would send a wake up call (plus coffee) to Dr. Stefanie Tompkins of DARPA, perhaps they can find alternative options for these two metals? Not the weirdest idea and as the Pentagon needs these materials it seems to me that between lunch and diner DARPA might find an answer, these boffins are kinda clever so it is one way to go. What do you think?

Enjoy the middle of the week, its all uphill in anticipation to the weekend until Friday. 

 

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July 26, 2023 · 14:41

Conscription Calamity

I heard of the notion, armies have had issues with getting meat for the grinder for as long as I remember. There were the crusades and the lords of the land beckoned with the option of wealth and the avoidance of utter poverty. And that was the feeding frenzy for those grinders. Almost 5 million people were lost over these numerous squabbles. From Accra to Jerusalem, millions were lost and the loss of people in those days implied that the shortage of manpower almost ensured the end of poverty and non-stop hunger. There was the Russian Revolution as well as WW1. By 2016 Russia was down 10 million souls and that was not the end of it all. WW1 took another 10 million souls (approximate losses both sides) and that was almost the end of it. There was of course WW2, there we have around 23 million military deaths and well over 50 million civilian losses. Yes, we have all made a mess of the setting. Yet all that fades to comparison to the Russian setting we see now. First I saw one article (see article three), then the article from the BBC giving us (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66304522) ‘Russia expands pool of men eligible for call-up’, which gives us “Russia is raising the maximum age at which men can be conscripted from 27 to 30, making more of them liable to serve in the armed forces”, which was not in line with the first article, as such I looked what I saw earlier, I did not see it, but I got the Express (at https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1794927/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-conscription) giving us ‘Panicked Vladimir Putin rushes through new law allowing Russia to conscript pensioners’ with the added text (the one I saw earlier) “Vladimir Putin has ushered in new legislation which will enable him to conscript men over the age of 60 in an apparent bid to shore up his armed forces 18 months after his invasion of Ukraine.” As such, even the pensioners aren’t safe anymore. How desperate do you need to be to take such precautions? Consider that Russia has a population of well over 134 million, I reckon that 25% is of an eligible nature, which is well over 30 million and they have to resort to pensioners? The math is wrong on a few levels. I showed you all how 4 settings of the Russian Army has failed them (Artillery, Logistics, Supplies and Medic) and now we are given that the army themselves is falling apart. This has got to be the biggest defeat and humiliation of Vladimir Putin. When we look at the history of war (Crusades, Russian Revolution, WW1 and WW2) we never saw a failing of this degree and it is seemingly getting worse. The strongest part of them is a group of mercenaries (the Wagner group) that must feel downright wrong to the Kremlin. A place where they were vying for supremacy with America and they cannot hold up against the 20th strongest army on the planet (aka the Ukrainian army). And that is all whilst the Ukrainian army is depending on other sources for supplies. 

A clambake fest that should have been over in a week and so far the Ukrainians are holding out for well over 510 days and I reckon they aren’t done yet. There will be payback for all the intentional bombing of civilian targets, not sure how, but Russia might face a much tougher setting than the Germans did in the treaty of Versailles. On 28 June 1919 it was said that these reparations was assessed at 132 billion gold marks (then $31.4 billion or £6.6 billion, roughly equivalent to US$442 billion or UK£284 billion in 2023). I reckon that this amount will by higher by 200%-300%, this implies that all the oligarchs need to hide whatever they had, because global organisations will come for them and when they do organisations like the Dutch Heineken company (who apparently are still doing business in Russia) and numerous American and European companies will be a similar state. It will be a mess that will not stop any day soon. Those who were pro-Russian will hide behind miscommunications and they have the option to run for their lives to Russia or become the centre-point of ridicule both them and their children alike. The Dutch have some experience with their NSB people in 1945. I reckon this might be worse. The French had the Vichy France collaborators. Neither ended well, the Dutch collaborator Pieter Menten got off (after 8 months) in 1945, but the setting changed in 1976. He fled to Switzerland but was arrested soon thereafter. He died with dementia, he never escaped his fate. I wonder what will happen to certain Dutch pro-Russian people like Thierry Baudet and Wierd Duk? I have absolutely no idea, but they banked on the wrong player and there will be consequences there too. That is all in addition to the Americans supporting and going soft on pro-Russian players. And in all this the Russian army is now relying on pensioners and setting them up against Ukrainian fighters who are by now all veterans. They pretty much made short work of the Wagner group. As such I do not give the Russian pensioners much of a chance. Meat for the grinders and the Russian grinders are low on meat a setting where 5 out of 5 of the land forces are failing. That has not been the case since before the Crusades. In that meantime defence forces had Sun Tzu (the Art of war) as well as Carl von Clausewitz (On War) these two books had basic information that Russia could have used to avoid the setting that they are in now. The weird part is that Amazon dot com offers both books for a total that is less than $50. So when you look at the list of losses, how stupid was the Russian setting to begin with?

I will let you decide, the middle of the week has begun, the stroll towards the weekend is now in effect.

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July 14, 2023 · 00:00

About the other thing

That is not how it started. It started with a dream, a slightly unsettling dream and at first I had no idea what it was about and where it would lead me, but there I was on the edge of whatever I was on and then I woke up. The dream had nestled in my subconscious and that is when I realised the larger image my mind was trying to tell me. Not unlike a game like Mirror’s edge, this one had optional potential. It would not be for normal consoles, it would be for a streaming solution like the Amazon Luna or its Tencent equivalent. But more about that later. Perhaps I will mail them directly and see what they can make of it. Yet as I was having these thoughts, the BBC gave us a story (at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66185545) where we see ‘Ukraine war: Russian general fired after criticising army leaders’ in that story we are given “Maj Gen Popov said he raised questions about high casualty rate and lack of artillery support” this would be merely one case, yet in the past (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/) on February 27th I showed just how massively the supplies of the Russian army were failing and that is the second part of the failure of Russian bear. Now we get to the third part which we are getting from the UK Express. The story (at https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1789517/vladimir-putin-russian-army-casualties-ukraine-war) gives us ‘Putin humiliated as Russia ‘almost certainly struggling’ with medical provision crisis’ which is part number three. As such we get to the image below

There we see a generic army setup. This is not my invention, this setup goes back to the napoleonic age. And in this General Popov raises a few interesting questions. What was the goal of the Russian Kremlin? Reduce its population at any cost? The need for generals to create a safe haven is now being made in doubt from what the BBC reports, as the quote is “A top Russian general says he has been removed from his post in Ukraine after telling military chiefs the truth about the dire situation on the front line”, we are given the final part, Logistics is seemingly failing to an equally disastrous degree. That is a massive failure, for any army to fail on these four counts will diminish any army, no matter how large it is and the losses are starting to add to serious losses for the Russian army.

A disastrous set of elements are in play and not being a high military person, I have no idea how this plays out. I am not even willing to speculate on would or could happen. Yet there is an overbearing thought. As I believe that General Popov is optionally correct, how could his superiors and the Kremlin be that wrong? People a lot more intelligent than me are in control of Armies, the Russian army is no exception, as such I wonder what on earth is going on. Was my dream part of that? I doubt that, it was a lot different from reality as is the command structure that the Russians are employing and if that fails, what else is failing behind that Iron curtain and with me realising this, I reckon that China and the Middle East are already on that channel. As such I need not worry about BRICS and what Russia is trying to do, they are at present experts in making themselves irrelevant. That is how I see it and I might be wrong, but when you realise that 4 parts of an entire army is failing, is there any other conclusion you could make?

Enjoy the day.

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July 8, 2023 · 19:05

The pot saw the black kettle

Yup, we all see that at times. We see the good, the bad and the opposite. And as such the media is all about giving us a partial story. Still this is not always on them, I get that. So when I saw Reuters giving us ‘Yellen criticises China’s ‘punitive’ actions against US companies, urges market reforms’ (at https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-urges-china-adopt-market-reforms-insists-us-not-decoupling-2023-07-07/) my very first thought was “Is she for real?” 

Thi is a setting that started years ago with the US riling up support AGAINST Huawei. We saw the dozen countries all going against Huawei. The larger station is not that they went up against Huawei, the bigger part is that NONE OF THEM ever gave us ANY evidence that Huawei was a security risk. This is not me being pro Huawei or being pro China. This is me being pro evidence and we were never given any evidence. One case (that was settled) in 2010 is all we got and all the stories were laced with ‘could/‘ and ‘might be’. Cisco was the same danger but no one spoke out, not even when Cisco had its set of security issues. These things happen. Yet the US is still operating its set of systems. There is GARLICK, LADYLOVE, MOONPENNY, JACKKNIFE, TIMBERLINE, STELLAR, IRONSAND and that list goes on for a while. Yet China is the big evil and no evidence is clearly presented. 

So now we get “U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on Friday for market reforms in China and criticised its recent tough actions against U.S. companies and mineral export controls, while China’s premier called on her to “meet China halfway” and put bilateral relations back on track.” I t3end to say, either stop the anti-Huawei stages or present actual and FACTUAL evidence that Huawei is a national security issue. There is close to nothing else. And as for the ‘mineral export controls’, well there might be a reason China needs them, there is also the case that stopping Huawei without evidence comes at a price and it seems that the mineral export is part of that price. So whilst the world is seeking for gallium and germanium (the second one is not found in Germany) the US needs to realise that their stance as a bully comes at a price and now that these prices are set in the open, the US doesn’t get to say “meet China halfway”. It intentionally destroyed the Huawei 5G wave because Americans were too stupid to take the lead in 5G technology and counter what was out there. Even I have 5G IP that the US (and others) do not have. All because the fat cats were lazy in an age when China became a true innovator. As such, as we are told “a technology war with the United States and potentially causing more disruption to global supply chains” the setting is not incorrect but not complete. You see these two substances are decently rare and China has the largest load. The US cannot claim the amounts from Japan or the UK (Or France, or the EU) as such they are in a bind and this is what comes with the bully tactic we have seen these last 5 years. Gallum is a different story. I have no precise numbers, but China is not the largest exporter, it apparently is Brazil with the US in second place. But I reckon that the two together will set a larger station and yes it comes from China. So as we consider “Yellen met with Premier Li Qiang on Friday during a visit to Beijing aimed at repairing fractious U.S.-Chinese economic relations, but made clear in her public remarks that Washington and its Western allies will continue to hit back at what she called China’s “unfair economic practices.”” As unfair economic practices go, 11 years ago we were given “A 2012 White House-ordered security review found no evidence that Huawei spied for China and said instead that security vulnerabilities on its products posed a greater threat to its users. The details of the leaked review came a week after a US House Intelligence Committee report which warned against letting Huawei supply critical telecommunications infrastructure in the United States.” I reckon that with leaked their own stables are in order? In addition to that, the stage is escalating and now we see that as shortages of Gallum and Germanium imply that there is a danger to US National security, with their stockpiles having no reserves left. As such I have a two set mind. Janet Yellen as the champion for bullies should not talk about “market reforms”. On the other hand, I am not claiming that China is innocent. I want to see evidence that they are not and so far going back at least 5 years, the US and the EU NEVER presented this. This is the station we face and as I personally see it Janet Yellen is the new US version of Don Quichotte and China is the next windmill. And as I see it, the stage that STC and Saudi Arabia is embarking on, the shortage that the US faces in Germanium and Gallum implies that the lag that the US faces will close to exponentially increase during late 2024. This is a setting that was to some unexpected, but the Reuters article gives us a list of people and they are all monitoring the supply. This implies to me that the setting is not as good as some make it out to be and it sets a different stage for the UK and France. As the US shortages increase it will stage a takeover of these suppliers by the US a lot stronger and faster than anyone had foreseen. This is (as I personally reckon)  a station of close to exponential danger to these nations. It might be the reason why Janet Yellen was send and not some one form the US State department. Did no one consider that question? Why was Janet Yellen send? It is pure speculation on my side, but I reckon that Premier Li Qiang is having a great time. It might be the first time he is talking from a position of great strength, but I could be wrong here.

What a weird weekend this is, enjoy yours.

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June 13, 2023 · 01:56

Forgotten numbers

These things happen, we forget things, or perhaps better stated, we often do not know the numbers and how they relate, as such they are gone from the mind the moment we see them. I made mention to some degree this on February 27th 2023 when I wrote ‘On the subject of failure’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/02/27/on-the-subject-of-failure/) there we see to some degree the massive failure that Russian supplies and logistics are. Not everyone is on that same page, but in all honesty, setting an army in a battle zone whilst they have no ammunition. What did you think would happen? Russian soldiers using their fingers and shouting ‘pew pew pew’? Do you think the people they attack would play along? Simple questions.

Now we see the numbers as given by one source and we see the losses that they Russian are having. When you consider the losses in Tanks, APV’s and vehicles you merely see a number and that is fair. But consider that most armies in the EU do not even have that many vehicles, and these are Russian losses, how large is the failure by Russian actually? 

You see, there is a number we aren’t seeing here, we see that the Russians lost 215,640 soldiers and between the previous report and now, they lost 980 troops. It now amounts to 400% of the TOTAL personal losses that the US had in Vietnam. But the most important number is missing and  it was another source that made me aware. Russia has so far lost 11 generals. That number will not be sinking in, I get that. There are armies that do not have that many generals, but that is not the important part. A general is more than merely a chief officer. Most armies employ some kind of higher tactical education (like the Dutch: HKS). When they pass this they can go beyond Colonel and become General. These people have had decades of experience putting out internal fires, setting bases in the same settings and educating their colonels to be more proficient. Pretty much EVERY army has that setting. And we would all get it, The Russian Army will have plenty of generals. Especially when the combined armies account for millions, there will be over 1100 generals. When it is merely one it seems petty, but there is a connected setting, one of them doesn’t get there easily (or at least they should not be getting there easily). And when you lose one it takes time for all this to get up to speed on a lot of things. Now with 11 lost the game changes. Just like sending soldiers into a war zone without ammunition. It pretty much becomes a turkey shot (for the Ukrainians). And that makes the Russian losses a lot bigger and it also explains why the counter offensive for Ukraine is so successful. Whatever is left cannot get the whole stage in focus and the losses are adding up. You see, it is not merely the UAV’s, the planes or the helicopters. With 2 out of 3 you also lose a pilot and that is all BEFORE you start realising the price tag of such losses. Soon Russia must choose between a solitary drone strategy or taking forces out of other areas and that could have larger long term implications. 

No matter how Russia wants to spin this, the clear setting is that with a massive lack of logistics and supply systems as well as losing this much of its highest echelon of officers, the outcome will be that Russia can only go from loss to loss. That was seen less than an hour ago when the Ukraine liberated a fifth village. In addition to that Russia is now seeking direct control over the Wagner group. Apparently the cook wasn’t hacking it. In that case you will see a more dangerous setting. I for one have never seen any successful setting where mercenaries and soldiers worked correctly together and with a lacking general this gets nasty real quick, implying that civilians will be in a lot more danger soon enough and that is not good.

Try to enjoy the day.

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June 7, 2023 · 20:40

The boom what?

Yes, a few hours ago, the AL-Monitor gave me the news (and anyone else who reads it) that ‘Canada’s arms exports boom to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar’ (at https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/canadas-arms-exports-boom-saudi-arabia-israel-qatar) now you think this is great news (as in size of the news), but you would be wrong. Canada, the other commonwealth nations as well as America are waking up to the coffee (optionally served by Tim Horton himself). When we read “most of the shipments coming from a $15 billion contract reached in 2014 but only approved for export by Canada’s current government” and you consider ‘Is it too little, too late?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/02/is-it-too-little-too-late/), which I wrote on June 2nd and you take the scale of the setting, you will see just how desperate the US is at present. Is it that Saudi Arabia is siding with BRICS? Is it because Saudi Arabia decided to cut production by a million barrels per day? Your guess is as good as mine, yet this is the setting and the Canadian BS line that it only got approved by the current government does not compute with me. This is the result of bad management on too many levels of US administration and now that the end-line is in view and the US is seeing that several nations, and a few not friendly to America are ahead of them. They are trying whatever they can to avert disaster and I am not sure if that is even possible at present. As I personally see it, China played the long game and they are now the expected winning team. Ahead in defence contracts with the KSA, ahead with infrastructure contracts with the KSA and Telecom contracts and now that the others are waking up, we get “The aims of Blinken’s trip, analysts say, include regaining influence with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region and nurturing hopes for an eventual normalisation of Saudi Arabian-Israeli ties.” What a surprise! I wrote on June 3rd in ‘Would you believe that?’ (at https://lawlordtobe.com/2023/06/03/would-you-believe-that/) where I mentioned Russia, China and Iran. I also gave a list where we see these 4 points now directly or indirectly mentioned. 

2. Oil prices.
3. BRICS membership.
4. Defence spendings lost.
5. Iranian diplomatic settings.

And it does not end there. The article (at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/7/blinken-starts-saudi-arabia-visit-aimed-at-steadying-relations) also gives us “Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that discouraging a closer Saudi Arabian-Chinese relationship is probably the most important element of Blinken’s visit.” With the underlining “[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington”. You see, here is the delusional stage. They are thinking that America still has options. I personally believe it is too late for that, if that was the case then this stage would be handled in 2019 (2015 would have been better), not in 2023. As I see it China merely waited for the US and EU bungle this to the largest degree and that happened in 2020 as China successfully courted The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for a whole range of issues and with the US president labelling the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia a pariah, that moment was reached. It wasn’t merely the straw that broke the camels back, it inhabited the entire convoy of Camels and now the end-game is coming into focus. For me (where I am now) it would in part be nice if Blinky Tony (Anthony Blinken) pulls it off, but he will have to sweeten the deal by a massive amount, not merely 1-2 promises, but a whole range of issues on paper signed by the president of the United States and here Congress, as well as the Senate better get out of the way, the loss will be too great if they bungle this. Still the chances of success are slim as I see it. Too much has passed and even as the United Nations played its anti-Saudi cards it might not be enough. As such a whole range of issues that got started by a United Nations essay by someone no one cares about, just like that columnist, that names eludes me for now.

More of my ‘insane predictions’ as some trolls would say are now a matter of fact and slowly we see the facts placed on papers as what is ‘stated’, but last week there was none of this. As such is the media doing its job? Are they looking into matters? What else are they missing? For me the case does not change much, other than the chance that Amazon wakes up to the billions they are missing out of, for me Tencent Technologies is a viable solution, it might cost me a little, but that is nothing to what Amazon and Facebook will lose out of. Google decided not to go ahead in this direction and as I am seeing certain players evolving ideas I had on a few occasions, the timing is decent (but it could have been better), still in light of where America is heading, I should be thankful for every dollar I will get out of this deal and as I see it time is growing shorter and shorter. Still as we see America trying to avoid sinking on the spot, we are all in decent fear of how it hits us, because there is no way that the western world (as well as most Commonwealth nations) will not get hit to some extent. All because we had faith in ego driven idiots (sorry, I meant politicians).

So, how is all this playing out for you?

Enjoy the midweek, we are now at 50% of the next weekend timeline.

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June 2, 2023 · 01:36

Is it too little, too late?

That is at times the question. What I think does not matter, I can be opinionated. Yet that part is still part of the speculative side that I walk. Only those who are in power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can actually state what is real. The rest including those think tanks are clueless. Well, think tanks have a deeper generic knowledge, as such it is no longer speculation, it is presumption. It is knowledge based on data and knowledge they have, it is more accurate than speculation, but how much more is depending on the political hands that they also feed. 

As such Reuters gave us (at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-ends-yemen-linked-embargo-arms-sales-saudi-arabia-2023-05-31/) ‘Italy ends Yemen-linked embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia’ this is good for Italy and it will help the EU, but how much? That remains to be seen. This 11th hour turnaround might have som impact, but will it be enough. For it to matter the UK needed to come across months ago and they didn’t and now China has the bulk of the orders ready for consideration. Italy as such might get some, but will it be enough and there the setting of ‘too little too late’ comes into play. Even as they include the UAE, the setting was always going to be the massive billions that the KSA had to spend and even as we consider that the KSA expenditure reached $75 billion last year, most of it is now going towards China. A safe bet is 40%-50%, but I reckon that China stands to gain up to 70%, all that revenue lost to the US, UK and the EU. The losses for these three are likely THAT big. Mine is not presumption, I do not have certain access. It is speculation at best, but how wrong do you think I am? We saw the courting by Chinese officials in 2021 and 2022 and now that they have made their impact Italy is now ending its embargo with a nice “praising Saudi Arabia’s recent peace mediation efforts”? Who are they kidding? The UK handed their revenue to the tea grannies of the CAAT, well a lot of good that did, China just took over and now none of them have anything to tell anyone. Well CAAT can state that they kept their heads high, so when OPEC adheres to the need of Just stop oil and 250K barrels a day go to China instead of the UK, what will have been achieved? I can tell you, nothing. Nothing will have been achieved, but the quality of life in the UK will go down further. 

We see now all kinds of changes and whilst the political arms give lame excuses all around us, the reality is that we opened our big mouths and there is a cost to that, but when the coffers are empty like most coffers in the US, the UK and most EU countries the cost of living will bite more and more. I tried to warn you all for at least three years and these options are all scuttled and they will not mature. So as Italy is making its step hoping there is some time left, I wonder if there was any time left. It is my speculative view that this is too little and it is way too late, but then my speculation could be wrong. You tell me, I honestly am not certain at present. 

Enjoy the day, the day before the weekend is merely one day away.

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